tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-68906253363467154142024-03-12T18:40:10.773-07:00The Balance Beam SituationNCAA women's gymnastics analysis that gets a 10 for a fall. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger619125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-19876906428345034612016-05-04T10:34:00.001-07:002016-05-04T10:34:38.236-07:00balancebeamsituation.comI know. I know.<br />
<br />
But I think it's time for a site that looks slightly more like something an adult human would have in the current millennium. But only slightly.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.com/">balancebeamsituation.com</a><br />
<br />
You'll hate it for a while, and then you'll get used to it. All the posts and comments are still there, even the oldy old ones in case you want to read about Asi Peko's potential contributions to the UCLA team for some reason (is this no longer relevant??????). <br />
<br />
Soon, I'll have this page redirect to the new site, but I wanted to give you a heads up so you know what's happening and can update any bookmarks/shrines to my glory. Feel free to explore the new site. Even though it's exactly the same. I did add a few new menus for quick reference to more of the various post topics (and will add more as time inevitably moves toward Armageddon), but if there are other posts/types you want links to on the main page, just complain about it and I'll hear you somehow. <br />
<br />
Also, I'm currently working on another edition of recapping US Olympic Trials broadcast history. Here's a preview.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HlwYiujxORE/Vyop7JfOkWI/AAAAAAAABW8/8-58yc49LYIORwmhhuODfdlE8oI12PYEwCK4B/s1600/Fates_0%2Bcopy.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HlwYiujxORE/Vyop7JfOkWI/AAAAAAAABW8/8-58yc49LYIORwmhhuODfdlE8oI12PYEwCK4B/s640/Fates_0%2Bcopy.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-20512231438596094052016-04-27T15:26:00.004-07:002016-04-27T16:13:42.306-07:00Before They Were NCAA – The 2012 ElitesNow comes the point in the year when we must attempt to wrench ourselves out of an NCAA mindset and pay attention to the elite world again. We're little more than a month away from Classic now, so the <i>Mad Max </i>remake that masquerades as the US Olympic selection process is soon to reach its familiarly feverish levels. "Do we actually need a bars specialist?" he asks, sharpening an abandoned femur into a spear.<br />
<br />
As a bridge between the two worlds, I periodically like to take the results of past US elite competitions and examine how the gymnasts ranked at that point compared to how they would eventually fare in NCAA a few years later. Who rises? Who falls? Who is like the mousy girl in the high school movie who takes off her glasses and suddenly turns beautiful in the NCAA code? Who was using elite difficulty to mask deficiencies that are exposed in college? As we know, success in elite and success in NCAA do not have a 1:1 relationship. <br />
<br />
Today, I have taken the various AA and event results from the 2012 Visa Championships (Visa Championships...feels so long ago. Like the John Hancock US Championships, which were basically contemporaneous with John Hancock) and bolded the gymnasts who competed in NCAA at some point after this competition (so I didn't include Anna Li since she's a category all her own). A number of items jump out. <br />
<br />
<i><b>All-around</b></i><br />
1. Wieber – 69.650/61.250 <br />
2. Douglas – 60.650/61.050<br />
3. Raisman – 69.200/69.750<br />
4. Ross – 59.750/60.200<br />
<b>5. Price – 59.600/58.500</b><br />
<b>6. Finnegan – 59.150/58.450</b><br />
7. Vega – 56.500/57.950<br />
<b>8. Baker – 58.050/56.400</b><br />
<b>9. Dowell – 55.7800/56.900</b><br />
<b>10. Sloan – 56.250/56.150</b><br />
<b>11. Milliet – 55.250/55.150</b><br />
<b>12. Brown – 54.200/55.500</b><br />
<b>13. McLaughlin – 55.400/53.150</b><br />
<b>14. Jetter – 53.550/54.850</b><br />
15. Skinner – 55.550/51.600<br />
<b>16. Jay – 52.550/53.150</b><br />
<b>17. Wofford – 51.900/53.350</b><br />
<br />
Fewer than half of the future NCAA gymnasts who competed AA at the 2012 championships continued to do AA in college (and only two or three of the eleven have been full-time AAers for multiple seasons), which helps illustrate the danger of assuming NCAA dominance for all elites. Those who continue at the same strength as all-arounders, your Sloans and Prices and Bakers, are the exception more than the rule. Instead, we have the usual random smattering of competition and success levels, ranging from barely-one-event status to best-in-the-country status. But what's of most interest here is the reason they're not competing AA in college. <br />
<br />
We tend to assume that the biggest obstacle for elites transitioning to NCAA is health, that they all would be top-ranked gems if their bodies weren't halfway to the glue factory by now after so many trips to Martha's Texas Adventure. While that's true in several cases, many are relatively healthy but simply not making all the lineups. Even someone who counts in the all-around category like Brianna Brown probably wouldn't have done AA this year if Casanova had been available, and Brandie Jay spent three years not even getting close to Georgia's beam lineup, not because of health but because of "Aaahh, beam!" In her 2015 season at Oklahoma, Dowell was in a similar position to Jay. Sometimes, in spite of an elite pedigree and strong rankings through the age of 18, gymnasts are just not top six on their NCAA teams, even on events that were elite strengths. <br />
<br />
In breaking down some of the specific rankings, I'm not taking Sloan into account much because she wasn't up to her full level during 2012, so this isn't really reflective of her standing in the elite world the way 2008 and 2009 were. It's not like Sloan was some middle-of-the-pack elite who suddenly bloomed in college. <br />
<br />
Brandie Jay is one who leapfrogged many of her higher-ranked elite peers to become a bigger and more influential contributor in NCAA than she was in elite, finishing largely on par with the likes of Kennedy Baker, who was a higher scorer and more compelling contender during the end of the last quad. Jay is probably the best example here of someone whose dominant years were still ahead of her in 2012.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/P8NIjmQzNk0" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Finnegan is also an interesting case because if we were to judge her freshman year by the second-behind-Price standard that 2012 gave us, the 2016 season would be considered somewhat average and not the dominance and team-leading influence normally expected of an Olympic alternate. Yet, having gone through years of "does she do gymnastics?" in between, her three events of 9.850-9.900 and ability to leg-event at all this season are a somewhat unexpected and welcome revelation. A lot happens between elite and NCAA, and we don't often maintain expectations for NCAA based on elite results, especially for certain types of gymnasts. I don't think many would say Abby Milliet's NCAA career has been disappointing so far, but she's certainly not top-6 AA level. Even before Grace McLaughlin started at Florida, she was at "maybe a beam routine?" status, not AA-queen status.<br />
<br />
A lot of this does come down to injury history/gymnastics style. We tend to maintain elite expectations for gymnasts with Raisman legs who look like they can hold up to four more years of gymnastics, but with the fragile-looking spinny twisties, we're just happy to see a routine at some point, even if it's an exhibition bars. We're like, "Good for her! I can see knees! She still has them!" <br />
<br />
It's worth noting that there are no "whoops, I broke and then disappeared into witness protection without another word" gymnasts in this AA collection, which is encouraging. Everyone either made the Olympics and turned pro, did NCAA, or will do NCAA. The only one in the whole 2012 competition who doesn't fit into those categories is Bross. There are usually more. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Vault (one vault, two days)</b></i><br />
1. Wieber 15.650/15.900 <br />
<b>2. Price 15.800/15.600 </b><br />
3. Douglas 15.350/15.800<br />
4. Sacramone 15.450/15.500<br />
5. Raisman 15.450/15.300 <br />
6. Ross 15.100/15.250 <br />
<b>7. Finnegan 15.000/14.900</b><br />
<b>8. Baker 14.650/14.800</b><br />
9. Skinner 14.550/14.600<br />
<b>10. Jay 14.600/14.500</b><br />
<b>11. Dowell 14.250/14.700</b><br />
12. Vega 14.100/14.500<br />
<b>13. Jetter 14.100/14.150</b><br />
<b>14. Milliet 14.050/14.150 </b><br />
<b>15. Brown 13.950/14.100 </b><br />
<b>16. McLaughlin 13.800/14.200</b><br />
<b>17. Sloan 13.850/14.150 </b><br />
<b>18. Brannan 13.800/14.150</b><br />
<b>19. Wofford 12.000/12.200</b><br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>For the vaulters, I'm most interested in this group of Y1.5s ranked 14-20, excluding Sloan who had downgraded to a full by that point. Pretty much all of these gymnasts were performing the 1.5 at an identical level four years ago, all scoring somewhere between 13.800 and 14.200 for their 1.5s on both days. I'll set aside Wofford, who was already like, "peace out" to vault and floor and was never realistically in the running to do those events in NCAA. (Cut to KJ going, "McKenzie Wofford is anchoring floor next season." Because Oklahoma.) <br />
<br />
And yet in spite of their identical levels, a quick look at these six gymnasts who performed 1.5s in 2012 shows that four of them haven't vaulted in college even once, Brown is a borderline backup who has been forced to fill in, and then there's Brannan, the outlier and only one to maintain her vault in college. She was at the bottom of the pack in 2012, yet while we're not going to see Jetter touch a vaulting table any time in the next rest of eternity, Brannan will need to become Alabama's vaulting star next season. She's the leg-survivor and has risen to the top of the group post-elite. Elite vaulting rotations are like a TV depiction of the first day of law school. "Look at the person to your left. Look at the person to your right. Two of you won't be able to vault by college."<br />
<br />
The top group has mostly gone as expected, though all of them have vaulted at least a 1.5 in college except Finnegan. She has worked her way back to a very well-executed full, but at this point she's not going to do much more than a pretty full, which emphasizes the different track she has taken compared to Kennedy Baker. Finnegan's DTY was outscoring Baker's DTY in elite, though they had a lot of similar qualities. They're very different vaulters in different vault galaxies these days.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4bXZZDKT6wo" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/D7s3zKHeh5U" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2v01IEOpyUw" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QvpSLGHbkAY" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i><b>Bars</b></i><br />
1. Douglas – 15.450/15.850<br />
2. Ross – 15.500/15.350<br />
3. Li 15.150/15.550<br />
4. Bross – 15.200/15.200<br />
5. Wieber – 15.050/15.050<br />
<b>6. Sloan – 15.100/14.950</b><br />
<b>7. Baker – 14.850/14.750</b><br />
<b>8. Price – 14.950/14.250</b><br />
<b>9. Wofford – 14.400/14.700</b><br />
10. Vega – 14.250/14.400<br />
11. Raisman – 14.100/14.200<br />
<b>12. Dowell – 14.100/13.950</b><br />
<b>13. Jetter – 13.550/14.300</b><br />
<b>14. Jay – 13.650/14.100</b><br />
<b>15. Brown – 13.350/14.050</b><br />
<b>16. Finnegan – 14.000/13.350</b><br />
<b>17. McLaughlin – 13.750/13.500</b><br />
<b>18. Milliet – 13.500/13.650</b><br />
19. Liukin – 13.150/13.650 <br />
20. Skinner – 13.200/11.100<br />
<br />
This is a very good collection of bars workers and largely a who's who of successful NCAA bars routines. The alignment hasn't changed nearly as much here, though we do see the effects of a non-difficulty-based code leveling the playing field. Someone like Wofford can be at the same level as Sloan or Price now because, while her execution was even with (or often superior) to Price and Sloan in elite, she was not always able to match their difficulty. Conversely, Baker is no longer able to use difficulty to create a margin over bars workers like Jetter or Milliet, who now score similarly in college. Everyone has bunched. Milliet showed amazing toe point on bars as an elite, but the NCAA code has allowed her to tone down her release-form struggles and dismount with a giant full to double back so that it becomes an affair of execution and highlights her strengths, which moves her up the ladder.<br />
<br />
Remember how Brenna Dowell didn't have a lot of bars difficulty in 2012? She didn't really start to go to D-score town until this quad, showing difficulty that was lower than even Raisman during the 2012 process. Compared to 2012, a closed-ended code helps her, but compared to 2016, it hurts her. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DIa6o9CZOBk" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Cf-zofkj45s" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i><b>Beam</b></i><br />
1. Raisman – 15.200/15.450<br />
<b>2. Finnegan – 15.350/15.050</b><br />
3. Sacramone – 15.200/15.100<br />
4. Ross – 15.100/15.000<br />
5. Wieber – 14.700/15.050<br />
6. Liukin – 15.100/14.100 <br />
7. Douglas – 14.800/14.100<br />
8. Vega – 14.200/14.400<br />
<b>9. Price – 14.300/13.850</b><br />
<b>10. Milliet – 14.150/13.600</b><br />
<b>11. Dowell – 13.700/13.900</b><br />
<b>12. Wofford – 13.700/13.650</b><br />
13. Bross – 13.550/13.700<br />
<b>13. Brown – 13.600/13.650</b><br />
<b>15. Sloan – 13.850/13.150</b><br />
<b>15. Baker – 14.150/12.850</b><br />
17. Skinner – 13.650/12.300<br />
<b>18. McLaughlin – 13.700/11.950</b><br />
19. Li – 11.950/13.650<br />
<b>20. Jetter – 12.550/12.400</b><br />
<b>21. Jay – 12.050/11.250 </b><br />
<br />
By contrast, this elite class is less of an all-star team when it comes to beam, where a few have become standout beamers but more are in the middle-of-the-pack/don't-compete category and have been passed up by L10 gymnasts who are able to do a better job of being not on the ground.<br />
<br />
Dowell and Wofford are both toward the top of the pack here, which is notable since neither have been college beamers. Some of this has to do with the challenge of making Oklahoma's beam lineup, but more of it has to do with that whole hitting thing. Looking back to 2012, that's somewhat odd because, for Dowell, beam wasn't really any better or worse than her other events that year and only more recently gained an identity as a weak piece, reinforced by not making OU's lineup in 2015. Wofford didn't necessarily show any more tentativeness or fall-riskiness on beam than say Brown or Sloan or Milliet in 2012, all of whom have been constant beamers in college while Wofford fell several times and then was quietly removed forever into the "she can't hit beam" box. Nothing about their elite performances necessarily said that Brown would become a team leader on beam while Wofford wouldn't compete.<br />
<br />
At the top, it's about what we would expect. Finnegan can't throw up a 6 billion D-score anymore, which has brought her back to the group instead of being a full point ahead, but she still has an argument as the best beamer here, or second-best to Sloan.<br />
<br />
Brandie Jay's last-place position here and subsequent senior-year beam renaissance should be an inspiration to all and is the more common development overall. Gymnasts usually figure out beam in college, either right away like a Macko or after a while like a Ding/Dabritz/Jay, not the other way around. This group somewhat bucks the trend. <br />
<i><b><br />
</b></i> <i><b>Floor</b></i><br />
1. Raisman – 15.450/15.800<br />
2. Wieber – 15.250/15.250<br />
3. Douglas – 15.050/15.300<br />
<b>4. Finnegan – 14.800/15.150</b><br />
<b>5. Price – 14.550/14.800</b><br />
6. Ross – 14.050/14.600<br />
7. Vega – 13.950/14.650<br />
<b>8. Baker – 14.400/14.000</b><br />
<b>9. Brannan – 13.800/14.300</b><br />
<b>10. Dowell – 13.650/14.350</b><br />
11. Skinner – 14.150/13.600<br />
<b>12. McLaughlin – 14.150/13.500</b><br />
<b>13. Sloan – 13.450/13.900</b><br />
<b>13. Jetter – 13.350/14.000</b><br />
<b>15. Milliet – 13.550/13.750</b><br />
<b>16. Brown – 13.300/13.700</b><br />
<b>17. Jay – 12.250/13.300</b><br />
<b>18. Wofford – 11.800/12.800 </b><br />
<br />
Similarly to vault, Finnegan outscoring Price and Baker on floor is something that has not translated to NCAA and was such a fleeting and momentary thing in the first place that it's easy to forget. Four years ago, Finnegan and Baker had almost equally killer piked double arabians. For Finnegan now, it's much more important that LSU preserve her for bars and beam rather than forcing her into an already strong and powerful floor lineup. She can be useful to the team and still remain in the "I'll do a double back sometimes but mostly no me gusta" category. The Baker/Finnegan 2012-to-2016 comparison is a worthwhile one, so let's do it again. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kRN7I-_6nBw" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXW8hlWFgjA" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NHN0qEgZ4jQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vAZGq6II2WI" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
I don't think this counts as much of a surprise. In fact, the bigger floor surprise this season was seeing a few gymnasts who were squarely in the "maybe do a beam routine if you can" category of spinny-twisty former elites in McLaughlin and Milliet make their respective floor lineups. They have become very clean leadoff gymnasts when at times floor seemed the least likely event for them to compete in college. If four years ago, I said that Grace McLaughlin would make one lineup during her sophomore year at Florida, raise your hand if you thought it would be floor. <br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-2675321086861456112016-04-24T14:35:00.000-07:002016-04-24T16:18:41.351-07:00Great Moments in Beam Choreography<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WGo7GHgei_k/Vx0kZjmuj3I/AAAAAAAABUU/WHy3mdQ3LnQ0WI2tcrIo_CPZ_pgunNmSwCLcB/s1600/Cata.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WGo7GHgei_k/Vx0kZjmuj3I/AAAAAAAABUU/WHy3mdQ3LnQ0WI2tcrIo_CPZ_pgunNmSwCLcB/s1600/Cata.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
End of post.<br />
<br />
While Catalina's attempt to explain the schematics of her plan for a space railroad may be the gold standard, Ponor is far from the only member of the "Is this...what is this?" beam hall of fame. The US system has been churning out champions left and right for years and years.<br />
<br />
For artistry. We do so much for artistry. And has it ever said thank you? Even once? Pssh. <br />
<br />
I mean, who can forget The Legend of Ol' Flappy?<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lq_MV1klJDc/Vx0o-KSZj_I/AAAAAAAABUg/5-VhsIEQpicCYybIuaX9cNjoS3MxUJJFACLcB/s1600/OldFlappy.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lq_MV1klJDc/Vx0o-KSZj_I/AAAAAAAABUg/5-VhsIEQpicCYybIuaX9cNjoS3MxUJJFACLcB/s1600/OldFlappy.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Fly away home, Nastia. Fly away home. <br />
<br />
Like any great artist, she inspired a generation who wanted to be just like her.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HkFYVfyqLCg/Vx0phoGgE_I/AAAAAAAABUo/XYejkzfGbrQVATeFzziN7nqa9omrS9X2gCLcB/s1600/HundleyNastia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HkFYVfyqLCg/Vx0phoGgE_I/AAAAAAAABUo/XYejkzfGbrQVATeFzziN7nqa9omrS9X2gCLcB/s400/HundleyNastia.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Nope. Fallen out of the nest. <br />
<br />
We all remember where we were the first time we saw this revelation.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kMyAXkkWwLo/Vx0qbEuzcwI/AAAAAAAABU0/hF6pz0jLYe0ck-pjuFSfK7P7X9cBxDbRgCLcB/s1600/Chellsie.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kMyAXkkWwLo/Vx0qbEuzcwI/AAAAAAAABU0/hF6pz0jLYe0ck-pjuFSfK7P7X9cBxDbRgCLcB/s400/Chellsie.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Scholars have hotly debated the author's intent in this piece since its debut, and they may never stop. Is she advertising an old-people smoothie juicer? Milking a hover-cow? Explaining how many Memmels it takes to screw in a lightbulb? (Four?) Perhaps it's intentionally ambiguous. For art. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--otCGnYlXgM/Vx0rUdWjDvI/AAAAAAAABU8/DqbNN94Gi4QglenX9hyGG_Pk3HTZi7nkACLcB/s1600/Hundley%2BChellsie.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--otCGnYlXgM/Vx0rUdWjDvI/AAAAAAAABU8/DqbNN94Gi4QglenX9hyGG_Pk3HTZi7nkACLcB/s400/Hundley%2BChellsie.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Again, not quite. Pull it together, Amelia.<br />
<br />
I will admit, it is a very difficult skill. So undervalued in the code. Wieber could only pull off a half-Memmel and ultimately did not get credit for it in London.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YYptBH8qqhU/Vx0rrpoIAFI/AAAAAAAABVA/Y3u8GN2PGGwxou2wbF-sogcqDqdfbi0xQCLcB/s1600/Jordyn.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YYptBH8qqhU/Vx0rrpoIAFI/AAAAAAAABVA/Y3u8GN2PGGwxou2wbF-sogcqDqdfbi0xQCLcB/s400/Jordyn.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
You'll never make a breakfast smoothie at this rate, Jordyn.<br />
<br />
MyKayla Skinner is among the more conceptual members of the current school, and I have to say that many of her pieces are reminiscent of Yoko Ono's early work. <br />
<br />
This one, entitled <i>Squash a tomato. Throw it under your armpit. Repeat until dead</i>, is a personal favorite. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tFnYTlMmy5A/Vx0uEjQDNWI/AAAAAAAABVU/40JVNrlCWNwI7VJEzxlJihOcUtIbSPXUACLcB/s1600/Skimmer2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tFnYTlMmy5A/Vx0uEjQDNWI/AAAAAAAABVU/40JVNrlCWNwI7VJEzxlJihOcUtIbSPXUACLcB/s400/Skimmer2.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
But of course her most famous piece must be <i>Stab a boob. Take a selfie. Stab a boob. </i>So influential.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-txFRlZetpxw/Vx0ujz0mPjI/AAAAAAAABVY/KNeAxQ2rebMj6gx8gN3j_hYiQs3sMRIKQCLcB/s1600/Skimmer.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-txFRlZetpxw/Vx0ujz0mPjI/AAAAAAAABVY/KNeAxQ2rebMj6gx8gN3j_hYiQs3sMRIKQCLcB/s400/Skimmer.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
To this day, we all lament that Alicia was driven into retirement because
of inner-thigh-caress calluses. Overuse injuries, you guys. The silent
killer. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JsnvgoSlIWg/Vx0veWGEkVI/AAAAAAAABVo/dH1r8RnNLOUVW6v5Wmgy5gTMseSWrIHogCLcB/s1600/Alicia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JsnvgoSlIWg/Vx0veWGEkVI/AAAAAAAABVo/dH1r8RnNLOUVW6v5Wmgy5gTMseSWrIHogCLcB/s400/Alicia.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Still, Alicia will only truly have left gymnastics when none remain who are loyal to the inner-thigh caress.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HrHvNFGVKLU/Vx0ytDUJQXI/AAAAAAAABV0/xKr38N9TMrcmLJXpGtQGf7zlCeSJpmmJgCLcB/s1600/animation.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HrHvNFGVKLU/Vx0ytDUJQXI/AAAAAAAABV0/xKr38N9TMrcmLJXpGtQGf7zlCeSJpmmJgCLcB/s400/animation.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
So, whether you're pulling a golden sword from the heavens only to realize that it's much, much heavier than you thought...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-L6EbUGWUqo0/Vx0zrkQ6b_I/AAAAAAAABV8/zDhbgUNckQwykYbugCiWnmBSuFKd6ucUQCLcB/s1600/Maygie.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-L6EbUGWUqo0/Vx0zrkQ6b_I/AAAAAAAABV8/zDhbgUNckQwykYbugCiWnmBSuFKd6ucUQCLcB/s400/Maygie.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Or kicking open the doggie door to crawl into the kitchen in the dead of night...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P-R3HRnO0YQ/Vx00B7-BwAI/AAAAAAAABWE/nVfUFjq4EDUzP2gHK_ZVFKWjG_UZiqhIQCLcB/s1600/aly.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P-R3HRnO0YQ/Vx00B7-BwAI/AAAAAAAABWE/nVfUFjq4EDUzP2gHK_ZVFKWjG_UZiqhIQCLcB/s400/aly.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Always remember the fundamental rule of attempting to look artistic on the beam.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qrzLPfEGSVE/Vx00ObOs3pI/AAAAAAAABWI/dR70K7RgzJEtKTj24O7so-ZJZzKEtbFCACLcB/s1600/nastia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qrzLPfEGSVE/Vx00ObOs3pI/AAAAAAAABWI/dR70K7RgzJEtKTj24O7so-ZJZzKEtbFCACLcB/s400/nastia.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Everybody poops.<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-79382144927857205532016-04-22T16:03:00.000-07:002016-04-22T16:03:11.041-07:00Comings and GoingsOklahoma won the national title six whole days ago, which is like a thousand years ago. Sorry, Oklahoma. We're moving on. What have you done for us lately? Basically nothing? That's what I thought. <br />
<br />
The 2017 season is just around the corner, as long as that corner is really, really far away. We don't know anything real about 2017 yet, but we do know which valuable gems and enthusiastic leaders in the training gym we won't see next year, along with which bright new lights full of possibilities and undiagnosed shin problems will be joining the teams in their place. <br />
<br />
Detailed looks at each team and roster will come much later, when the season approaches and I actually vaguely know who these JO gymnasts are, but let's call this a preliminary glance at who's coming and who's going on each team now that the 2016 season is closed and locked away forever and the traditional eight-month moratorium has been placed on the terms "parity," "yurchenko arabian," "confident leadoff," and "life lessons." I've placed the top teams into various categories based on the current outlook and added the RQSs for the routines they will lose after 2016.<br />
<br />
This is, of course, assuming that people do what they're supposed to and don't suddenly turn pro or run off to join a traveling circus or whatever. <br />
<br />
<b>Smooth sailing</b><br />
<br />
<i><b>LSU</b></i><br />
Out: Jessica Savona, Randii Wyrick, Michelle Gauthier<br />
In: Ruby Harrold, Kennedi Edney, Ashlyn Kirby<br />
<br />
Savona - VT - 9.820 avg; UB - 9.840; FX - 9.902 avg<br />
Wyrick - UB - 9.810; FX - 9.905<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l9x7vtEwYVU" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
The Tigers certainly lose a few critical routines, the most important being Savona's floor, though they already gained some experience with life after Savona's vault and floor when she was out early this season (and life after Wyrick's bars when she didn't compete in the postseason). They survived, for the most part. Several of these openings should be filled by people already on the roster, and while I don't think we can have any expectations for Priessman at this point because any week she's healthy enough to compete is just a bonus, Kelley should do more next year. Add to that this freshman class, and I think there's every reason to expect LSU 2017 to be stronger than LSU 2016. <br />
<br />
<i><b>ALABAMA</b></i><br />
Out: Lauren Beers, Carley Sims<br />
In: Maddie Desch, Wynter Childers, Shea Mahoney<br />
<br />
Beers - VT - 9.905; UB - 9.690; FX - 9.915<br />
Sims - FX - 9.868<br />
<br />
Alabama is in a similar position to LSU in terms of not losing that many routines, though Alabama's losses carry a bit more significance, especially on floor with the team's two strongest floories departing. They'll need some of the upperclassmen like Brannan to step up and be a little more Beersy on those events and a little less middle-of-the-lineupy, but with increased contribution from a potential star like Ari Guerra who didn't figure at all by the end of the season and the introduction of Maddie Desch and Wynter Childers, Alabama's first-ever recruit who's also a citizen of District 1, I'm not too worried about the look of Alabama's future roster. <br />
<br />
<i><b>CAL</b></i><br />
Out: Serena Leong (?), Kristina Heymann<br />
In: Cassidy Keelen, Rachael Mastrangelo<br />
<br />
Cal can't have much to complain about in terms of roster shake-ups since the only two seniors on the roster for 2016 were Heymann, who used to contribute a backup vault, and Leong, who has been injured forever and would be in line for a redshirt season. When healthy, Leong was half of the duo that ushered in Cal's rebirth, along with Asturias. Regardless, Cal shouldn't have to lose anything at all from this season's 7th-place team, only gain for next year. The future is bright. <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Dark, but hopeful </b><br />
These schools will lose many more significant routines than the smooth-sailing schools, but their incoming classes are cause for optimism about maintaining or improving their current levels nonetheless. <br />
<br />
<i><b>OKLAHOMA</b></i><br />
Out: Haley Scaman, Keeley Kmieciak, Hunter Price, Nicole Turner<br />
In: Maggie Nichols, Brenna Dowell, Brehanna Showers, Jade Degouveia<br />
<br />
Scaman - VT - 9.890; UB - 9.880; FX - 9.945<br />
Kmieciak - VT - 9.865; UB - 9.930; BB - 9.870; FX - 9.870<br />
Price - VT - 9.871 avg<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tEmXjXzcoR4" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Oh hi, we just won a national championship, and we're going to have Maggie Nichols and Brenna Dowell (back) next year. Oklahoma is losing eight routines from the championship lineups (which is a high but not necessarily devastating number), though nearly every one of those routines was a realistic and regular 9.900. But then, if Nichols and Dowell do show up and deliver next year, that's pretty much your eight high-scoring replacement routines right there (Dowell didn't compete beam in 2015 but I think we all expect that she will Brandie Jay on beam at some point in her OU career). That doesn't even account for the other newcomers, the traditional Oklahoma magicking up of unexpected routines, and the extra redshirt season from long lost Maile Kanewa. <br />
<br />
<i><b>FLORIDA</b></i><br />
Out: Bridget Sloan, Bridgey Caquatto, Bianca Dancose-Giambattisto, Morgan Frazier<br />
In: Amelia Hundley, Alyssa Baumann, Rachel Gowey, Maegan Chant<br />
<br />
Sloan - VT - 9.900; UB - 9.945; BB - 9.910; FX - 9.950<br />
Caquatto - VT - 9.810; UB - 9.915; FX - 9.900<br />
BDG - UB - 9.865<br />
<br />
You wouldn't think the Gators would be in much trouble next year since they're simply losing the services of that non-competing walk-on Bridget Sloan. (Who?) Still, somehow, Florida is bleeding the same number of essential routines as Oklahoma, with the added problem of losing the team's big old star, 10.0-machine, and four-year identity of the program. It's a worry. Fortunately, as Jean-Ralphio would say, this freshman class is off the cherrrrts.<br />
<br />
Because Florida is losing such important gymnasts, however, these newbies can't come in and be I'm-not-helping elites who are perpetually injured. They have to be multi-event 9.9s, which will make it interesting to watch how they progress during this summer's Trials season. None are in the serious hunt for the US Olympic team, but that doesn't mean they can't be ground into a fine powder trying. Baumann and Gowey are beautiful rays of starlight, but they also have that fragile "I can only do bars and beam in college because my bones are now made of tears and hope" look to them, and Amelia Hundley is from CGA, so enough said. Florida will need to get a couple big leg-event routines out of this group.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><i><b>UCLA</b></i><br />
Out: Danusia Francis, Sophina DeJesus, Sadiqua Bynum<br />
In: Kyla Ross, Madison Kocian, Felicia Hano, Anna Glenn, Grace Glenn<br />
<br />
Francis - UB - 9.835; BB - 9.945; FX - 9.860<br />
DeJesus - UB - 9.885; BB - 9.855; FX - 9.883<br />
Bynum - VT - 9.860; FX - 9.935<br />
<br />
Here's yet another school losing eight critical and high-scoring routines, with the guaranteed 9.950 beam routine from Francis being the most devastating loss. At the same time, UCLA's 2017 freshman class has been the stuff of legend for a while now. The same caveats about broken elites more than apply in UCLA's case, which is why the coaching staff will be playing an orchestra of celebration trumpets about Ross's decision to forego the Olympic-year gauntlet and preserve/heal herself for a college team that needs her to go Full Kyla all over next season. <br />
<br />
If everything (or even most things) come to fruition with these freshmen, Macy Toronjo's return from injury, and squeezing one more year of Peng out of what remains of her limbs, UCLA's competition team will be completely unrecognizable next year. I expect to see fewer than half of the current lineup routines competing by the postseason in 2017, and health is really the only thing standing between UCLA and greatly improving on this 2016 team.<br />
<br />
<i><b>UTAH</b></i><br />
Out: Breanna Hughes, Kassandra Lopez, Kailah Delaney<br />
In: MyKayla Skinner, Missy Reinstadler, Kim Tessen<br />
<br />
Hughes - VT - 9.900; UB - 9.910; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.925<br />
Lopez - VT - 9.780; UB - 9.905; BB - 9.850<br />
Delaney - VT - 9.860; BB - 9.825<br />
<br />
How is Utah losing another super-critical class? Didn't that just happen last year? 2016 was supposed to be the rebuilding year, not 2017, but after this season Utah is losing three regular-lineup beam routines and the team's strongest scores on both vault and bars. The reasons for hope are the potentially significant contributions from a two-elite freshman class and the return of Kari Lee's four routines, which will make the routine-replacement task much less onerous for the freshmen. We'll have a lot to talk about regarding Skinner's potential in NCAA once that moment rolls around as there's some doubt about how she'll fare in NCAA because of her form struggles on simpler elements, though that hasn't stopped others. The NCAA code would allow picking and choosing the right elements for her, and maintaining some amount of her current elite difficulty would help mask any problems. <br />
<br />
<i><b>DENVER</b></i><br />
Out: Nina McGee, Katie Menhinick, Emily Barrett, Maggie Laughlin, Morgan Tolman<br />
In: Maddie Karr, Samantha Ogden, Courtney Loper<br />
<br />
McGee - VT - 9.895; UB - 9.910; BB - 9.865; FX - 9.970<br />
Barrett - VT - 9.790; BB - 9.815; FX - 9.810<br />
Menhinick - UB - 9.805; BB - 9.775<br />
Laughlin - VT - 9.690; FX - 9.860<br />
<br />
Denver is basically losing the entire team after this season, including the gymnast who almost single-handedly drove them into the top ten. Yet for some strange reason, I'm resisting placing them down in the next category even though that seems the most realistic outlook for 2017 given these losses. I have a lot of hope for this freshman class including Karr, one of the top JO gymnasts in this recruiting year, and Ogden, a former WOGA elite who was given the WOGA cookie-cutter routines even though they don't really fit her gymnastics style. I could see her thriving with different routine composition in NCAA. <br />
<br />
<b>Red alert</b><br />
Sound the alarm. Prepare the shelter. <br />
<br />
<i><b>GEORGIA</b></i><br />
Out: Brandie Jay, Brittany Rogers, Mary Beth Box<br />
In: Sabrina Vega, Jordyn Pederson, Rachel Dickson<br />
<br />
Jay - VT - 9.935; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.895<br />
Rogers - VT - 9.925; UB - 9.920; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.795<br />
Box - BB - 9.905; FX - 9.925<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Vn-NH6U0KU0" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Yikes. It's a good thing Georgia made Super Six this year, a final accomplishment to hang on this critical class because it gets a little scary now. The Gymdogs will lose their most important routines on each and every event, including their two best vaults, their two best bars routines, their best beam routine (and two other realistic hits in a terrifying lineup), and their two best floor routines. Georgia will certainly be able to fill out these lineups next year, as we can expect increased contributions from the likes of Cherrey, Snead, Schick, and Reynolds, but that's 100% necessary because the incoming freshman class will not match the scoring ability and lineup presence of the outgoing senior class. That's an awful lot of eggs to put in Sabrina Vega's basket, someone who is basically just walking around in a question mark costume at this point. <br />
<br />
<i><b>AUBURN</b></i><br />
Out: Caitlin Atkinson, Lexus Demers, Kait Kluz<br />
In: Gracie Day, Kendall Moss, Katie Becker<br />
<br />
Atkinson - VT - 9.895; UB - 9.880; BB - 9.910; FX - 9.925<br />
Demers - VT - 9.865; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.890<br />
Kluz - VT - 9.810; UB - 9.850; FX - 9.860<br />
<br />
Caitlin Atkinson has been the constant throughout the rise of Auburn. The year before Atkinson arrived, Auburn finished 18th. This year, Auburn was disappointed not to make it back to Super Six. It's a big change, and the critical routines from this class have been a wildly significant part of that change. The incoming class is not a group of recognizable names, and though it is a group of accomplished L10s who should contribute quite a bit, the question of what Auburn is without Atkinson anchoring every lineup will linger until next January. A large number of underclassmen populate this roster, but are they able to match the level of the routines that are leaving, particularly in vault and floor lineups that will need to be almost entirely reinvented in order to challenge next season? <br />
<br />
<i><b>STANFORD</b></i><br />
Out: Ivana Hong, Taylor Rice, Jenna Frowein, Melissa Chuang (?)<br />
In: Aleeza Yu, Kaylee Cole, Ashley Tai <br />
<br />
Hong - VT - 9.797 avg; UB - 9.870; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.788 avg<br />
Rice - VT - 9.785; UB - 9.830; BB - 9.795; FX - 9.785<br />
Chuang - VT - 9.700; BB - 9.895; FX - 9.790 <br />
Frowein - FX - 9.720<br />
<br />
I have a question mark next to Chuang because she has missed enough time in past years to be a possible redshirt, though she was listed on the roster this year as a senior, not a redshirt junior. Stanford needs all the routines it can get to avoid putting every ounce of scoring obligation on Price. Losing Ivana Hong is not something you recover from, and even though Rice did not have an all-time-awesome-fun-time of a 2016 season, she has been an AA stalwart for a team that has desperately needed it. Without Taylor Rice, how many five-person bars lineups and yurchenko layouts would Stanford have been forced to compete the last couple years? This is way too many routines to lose without knowing exactly where the replacements are coming from. <br />
<br />
<i><b>NEBRASKA</b></i><br />
Out: Hollie Blanske, Madison McConkey<br />
In: Taylor Houchin, Sierra Hassel, Alexa Clark<br />
<br />
Blanske - VT - 9.880; UB - 9.840; BB - 9.835; FX - 9.920<br />
McConkey - BB - 9.650<br />
<br />
Unlike for the other teams in the red-alert category, this isn't a large number of lost routines. Nebraska should be able to cobble together people to fill out the lineups (though without much margin for error because this is still Nebraska), but it's yet another year of the Huskers losing their AA star without an apparent heir waiting to fill that role, someone who can legitimately get 9.9s across the board, particularly on vault and floor. Return to us Ashley Lambert. Also, I'm pretty sure one of those new freshmen plays Derek on Teen Wolf, which seems like it's going to be a busy schedule.<br />
<br />
<b><i>MINNESOTA</i></b><br />
Out: Lindsay Mable, Hanna Nordquist, Maddie Hanley<br />
In: Ivy Lu, Casey Betts, Ryan Stach, Rebecca Taylor, Kristen Quaglia<br />
<br />
Mable - VT - 9.885, UB - 9.895; BB - 9.910; FX - 9.935<br />
Nordquist - BB - 9.905<br />
Hanley - UB - 9.850; BB - 9.835<br />
<br />
I don't want to talk about it. Shut up.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>How's this going to go...?</b><br />
A couple schools defy these simple categories, so I'm throwing them here. <br />
<br />
<i><b>MICHIGAN</b></i><br />
Out: Briley Casanova (?), Austin Sheppard, Lindsay Williams, India McPeak<br />
In: Polina Shchennikova, Lexi Funk, Maggie O'Hara, Madison Osman<br />
<br />
Sheppard - VT - 9.865; UB - 9.855<br />
Williams - UB - 9.880; BB - 9.800; FX - 9.845<br />
<br />
Casanova competed in only the first three meets in 2016, so she'd be eligible to take a redshirt season, which would be a huge help to Michigan in mitigating the losses after 2016 and perhaps expecting a gain for the 2017 season. It's not going to be exactly smooth sailing without some of these stalwart routines and without the high-scoring depth of a team like Alabama, but nothing about the current outlook is too, too dire. The majority of big AA and three-event stars will be returning next season. I'm also fascinated to see what Shchennikova will be able to do with NCAA composition on bars.<br />
<br />
<i><b>OREGON STATE</b></i><br />
Out: Risa Perez, Jamie Radermacher, Erika Aufiero (?)<br />
In: Sabrina Gill, Isis Lowery, Brianna McCant<br />
<br />
Perez - BB - 9.865; FX - 9.845<br />
Radermacher - FX - 9.860<br />
<br />
The Beavs will lose just a smattering of critical routines, though not having Risa Perez is a blow to all of us emotionally, much greater than those 9.8 RQSs suggest. Oregon State's roster is fully set up to withstand these few lost routines and stay on pretty much the same track, but unlike Cal, Oregon State would not be content with simply withstanding routine losses and staying even next season. They'll expect to improve, so the reinvigoration of the Canadian and Australian pipelines that we see in this freshman class will be essential, as it has been so many times in OSU's past. <br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-25968289551747877972016-04-20T17:57:00.001-07:002016-04-20T17:57:55.023-07:002016: A Season That HappenedAnother NCAA season has come and gone, but our aggressive sighing from the corner of the room will live on forever. They may take our season, but they will never take our eye rolls. <br />
<br />
Several days on from Oklahoma toe pointing off into the sunset with a trophy in hand, this seems an appropriate moment to cobble together a series of reflections and important frowns relating to the season just passed and college gymnastics in general. Only eight and a half months until it starts all over again! But, of course, we also have that pitiful little zone meet called the Olympics coming up not nearly soon enough, so I'll be all over the elite action this year with the same level of dedicated preposterousness I usually reserve NCAA. You guys, we have a lot more things to break. At the time, I didn't quite realize what a good job we did breaking Romania last year, but...it definitely took. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/A107O02d8_g" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
That Frogchenko 2/3ish is my new favorite vault. It's going to start from a 10.0 in next year's NCAA code. Cal is already training two of them. <br />
<br />
<b>Oklahoma</b><br />
For the second time, and the first time outright, our champions are the Oklahoma Sooners, who were rewarded for their commitment to performing the cleanest gymnastics in the competition. Super Six wasn't a perfect meet for the Sooners by any means, which is what made it exciting in the first place (a season-best hit from Oklahoma, and this thing isn't very close). Weaker showings on vault and the second half of bars kept the competition finely poised, but Oklahoma's errors were less egregious than those of the other teams and did not include any falls. Focus on details like split and chest positions made it much more difficult for the judges to deny Oklahoma those valuable 9.9s in a theoretically tighter-scored environment, and the Sooner managed to snatch twelve of them. Seven was the most 9.9s coming from any other team in Super Six. <br />
<br />
My questions about Oklahoma's title chances coming into the season primarily revolved around the necessity of replacing valuable 9.9 routines on bars and beam with gymnasts who were already on the roster but not making those lineups, often a recipe for regression. While Oklahoma did have to replace a number of those lost routines with tired old sophomores and juniors, the coaching staff was able to get Oklahoma-level routines out of each them. Ali Jackson doing bars? Chayse Capps getting her best scores on <i>bars</i>? What life if this? I went back to my notes about the freshmen from when Capps started, which I still have because I'm a gymnastics hoarder, and I wrote "Capps - VT, BB, FX. Bars - No." So there's that. I also wrote, "beam could be one of her potential contributions." Could be? Potential? You unbelievable idiot.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Xyhbg6LVf-E" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
This is one of the defining characteristics of the Oklahoma team. People compete events no one ever expected them to compete when they started, from Hollie Vise doing a <i>vault</i> her senior year to all these competitors this season. And while I wouldn't consider these bars and beam lineups all-time great Oklahoma lineups, they more than got the job done. <br />
<br />
Other teams also used gymnasts who weren't making lineups in previous seasons, whether it's McLaughlin and Fassbender filling in on floor for Florida or Sanders doing beam for Alabama, but those routines were the replacement-level 9.825 scores we would expect from someone on the cusp of the lineup. They didn't become difference makers in the way that Oklahoma's replacement routines did, a critical factor in the Sooners' triumph. <br />
<br />
<b>The year of the upstarts</b><br />
Some solid noise was made this season by teams we don't normally expect to do anything. Eastern Michigan came, you know, sort of close to making nationals, George Washington broke into the big girls club, and Bowling Green made regionals, not to mention Cal crashing the party of the normal nationals qualifiers, Iowa sneaking into the realm of contenders, and Boise State and Denver spending some serious time in the first tier.<br />
<br />
The storylines were different. There were different teams to follow than usual, which is exciting. But that's all a little too positive, isn't it? If some teams break in, others have to fall out and perform worse than is expected or acceptable. The biggest disappointment of the season was Illinois, a team that appeared to have the talent to make its traditional biennial nationals appearance but was clearly well off the pace even before devastating injuries sealed the season. Ohio State has also completely disappeared from the conversation since a nationals appearance several years ago that shouldn't really have been as random and fluky and Kent Statey as it has become in retrospect. Then there's also Penn State and...well...<a href="http://www.collegian.psu.edu/features/article_d0ae8e90-051f-11e6-aa96-0b85cc3a2ad0.html" target="_blank">that whole abuse thing</a>. And DOCTOR Rene Lyst being asked to sashay away from Arizona State, a program that was good as recently as 10 years ago and is now the punchline of the NCAA. <br />
<br />
In a somewhat different category are Oregon State and Arkansas, two teams that had perfectly fine and respectable seasons and might have made nationals with a kinder regionals draw, in the case of Oregon State (Oregon State was the only school that had to face two eventual Super Six teams at regionals), or without some critical injuries, in the case of Arkansas. Still, this makes three straight years of missing nationals for Arkansas and three of the last four for Oregon State, both programs that at this point should expect to make nationals every time. <br />
<br />
The presence of these upstarts puts more and more pressure on the top teams to be better during the regular season so that they don't end up with those very challenging regionals draws, which is positive because it makes the regular season mean more. Stanford did not have an impressive regular season and was a whisker away from being unseeded at regionals, which would have produced an even more challenging setup. For a team that currently has only three home meets a year, several of which are in a glorified black box theater, the incentive to make regular-season meets a more invigorating and successful experience grows stronger. <br />
<br />
<b>Scoring the rotation order</b><br />
Another significant characteristic of the season, perhaps the most extreme, was the presence of the fifth event, Home Floor. Home Floor is the phenomenon in which a host team goes to floor in the final rotation only to find that the code of points has suddenly been replaced with a rainbow lollipop made of panda hearts. Home floor has always been a thing, but this year, floor scoring reached a ten-year high, rendering the effects of home floor more pronounced than ever. If you were a top team who didn't get 49.500 on floor at home, you might as well be counting 80 falls. <br />
<br />
So, end-of-meet scoring is a problem, and one that's not simply confined to floor and home meets. At nationals, we also saw the effects of scoring the rotation order and elevating scores based on when the routine came in the meet. In Super Six, the average team score per rotation was 49.206 in the first rotation, 49.2375 in the second, 49.369 in the third, 49.225 in the fourth, 49.350 in the fifth, and then suddenly 49.500 in the final rotation. The highest team score on each apparatus in Super Six was recorded by the team that happened to be competing on it in the final rotation. Of the 37 scores of 9.9 or greater given out in Super Six, 23 came in the second half of the meet compared to 14 in the first half of the meet. As many 9.9s were given out in the final rotation as in the first three rotations combined. Amazing how all the teams got to perform on their best events in the second half of the meet. What a coincidence. <br />
<br />
The rotation order should be random nothing. It shouldn't decide the scores, and finishing on a bye (or not starting on a bye) should not be an actual disadvantage in the competition the way it appears to be now. It's a judge's job not to get excited by the circumstances of the meet (which is why smiling should be banned forever—it reads as unprofessional), and judges need to be made aware of tendencies to elevate scores at the ends of meets. They must make a point of judging the first routine of the first rotation with the same lens as the sixth routine of the sixth rotation and repel the natural instinct to loosen and elevate scores as the meet becomes louder, longer, and more exciting, not allowing themselves to be swayed by the siren song of fervent cheering and a passionate atmosphere. They're not here to enjoy this. They're here on business. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>Lineup orders</b><br />
At the same time, scores going crazy is sort of the nature of college gymnastics, so why not take advantage of it when possible? Creating a traditional lineup in order of ascending difficulty and obvious quality is never a disastrous strategy. It's fine. I would say that Oklahoma's lineups this year were pretty traditional, which clearly worked out well, but if you're looking to scrape out all the tenths you can, why not try to work the system and use score-building to bump up those totals? Why try to build toward scores that were going to be the best in the lineup anyway? In many cases, the best (or most famous) gymnast doesn't need the advantage of going last. Others might.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ekWKYOc2dec" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
We've seen too clearly how successful Florida has been with this strategy over the last four seasons for any excuse or uncertainty about it to remain. Teams that are able should take advantage of building lineups toward a simpler routine that might get overlooked in an earlier position by placing it <i>after</i> the big/famous routines. Bridget Sloan won the national AA title anchoring one event. (And did it three years ago going no later than fourth on any event.) Why? Because she's The Bridget Sloan. She doesn't need to go last. <br />
<br />
When all the routines begin from a 10, the differentiating factor among them is not difficulty but execution, so if anything, lineups should be organized in ascending order of execution instead of ascending order of difficulty. Unless the start value says so, you don't get bonus points for difficulty. The judges have tried to show teams again and again, especially over the last four or five years, that a 10.0 start is a 10.0 start (Oklahoma's floor scores in Super Six being the latest example), but this belief that difficulty is going to be rewarded persists despite current evidence against it. <br />
<br />
In Super Six, the average score for floor routines containing an E pass was 9.857, and the average for those not containing an E pass was 9.837, less than a quarter tenth apart. That's not a particularly significant difference and doesn't account for the fact that the better floor workers overall tend to be the ones throwing E passes and probably should score higher anyway. So, don't give me "E passes get rewarded in the postseason." Not really. Until the code provides an actual incentive for E passes, the only reason to do one is if it's exactly as clean as a D pass. If it's even a slight bit messier or less consistent, it doesn't pay. <br />
<br />
Let's stay on this difficulty issue, though, because in some cases I do believe an incentive for difficulty should be built into the code to make it necessary/worthwhile, as it has on vault, and there's a good argument that the code should build in an incentive for E passes on floor. That just doesn't exist now. <br />
<br />
<b>Beam </b><br />
In spite of this being a terrible year for beam, it was actually a really good year for beam. Admittedly, this may be a case of confirmation bias, but I thought the general style and posture and completion of split elements on beam was better this season than in past years. It may have to do with so many of the new top head coaches being beam queens like Rowland, Duckworth, and Durante. They can coach some beam, and it shows in the performances. Even the "bad" beam teams like Georgia and ultimately Michigan had lovely routines both in the lineup and sitting on the bench. They just couldn't hit to save their lives.<br />
<br />
That's my way of saying that I have the fewest problems with beam right now, though I do still think adjustments can be made to reward those who beam the best beam and encourage more risk in the routines. Yes, we already have a lot of falls on beam, but falls are good. Falls are exciting and make things more interesting and develop the drama of the sport. When we stop constructing falls as something shameful or emotionally devastating—they're not, they happen to literally everyone, even Simone—we get rid of the need to "feel bad" for people who fall. You don't need to feel bad for her. Her grandma didn't die. She just fell on beam. It happens, it sucks, and I've already forgotten about it. Falls are good for the entertainment factor of the sport, which means that risk is good for the entertainment factor of the sport. <br />
<br />
So, we can make things a little more risky, for instance requiring a true rebounding acro series in every beam routine. I use this example mostly because the "fake acro series that I'm clearly pausing in the middle of" has become an epidemic in NCAA gymnastics that must be quashed. Walkover+pause+back handspring is not an acro series and should not be allowed to fulfill that requirement.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pyfWwjR98vs" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Ideally, we'd see a true rebounding acro series become a requirement, but it doesn't even necessarily require a rule change. It just requires the judges to start being more vigilant about denying credit to those forward-backward series when they're not speedy. I completely understand why the judges seem to be loath to acknowledge paused acro series. Denying credit to an acro series because of a short pause is such harsh punishment for a relatively minor mistake. That's two-tenths off the start value, and because scores are so high, that makes the score basically unusable. It might as well be a fall. It's reasonable that the judges might want to keep that anvil in their pockets unless absolutely necessary because it could define a meet. <br />
<br />
But, actually starting to take that deduction in all cases of an even vaguely noncontinuous series is the best way to discourage use of the dumb front-to-back non-acro acro series. Before next season, the judges just need to send a warning shot to all the coaches to say, "Hey, unless it truly shows continuous movement, we're not giving the front-back acro series anymore and are going to be super mean and harsh about it starting now." Then let the coaches decide how much they really want to take the risk of doing this "non-risky" acro series. I think we would see a lot fewer of them, limiting them to only the ones that are particularly confident and elegant. <br />
<br />
On the subject of pauses, though, I also have some feelings about the pause deduction. I had no problem with judges that elected not to take the deduction before Francis's beam dismount, same with the judges who chose not to take it before Courville's arabian in previous seasons. These are difficult, showpiece skills that can warrant a pause. Now, if you're pausing before a full turn, you get the pause deduction because that's unnecessarily breaking the rhythm of the routine, which is the point of the pause deduction to begin with. If, however, you're pausing before a super difficult acro skill, it does not break the rhythm in the same way and I have no problem letting it be. Taking it in that case is not the spirit of the deduction. In fact, the pause actually serves to build anticipation for the skill in question. We all heard how the crowd would begin to roar during Francis's pause. <br />
<br />
If judges do feel the need to take the pause deduction in these cases, that's fine because it is the letter of the law, but they need to be consistent. That means taking it on basically every routine being done by everyone. Standing at the end of the beam tapping your foot on the beam cap and taking a deep breath before your dismount is a pause and let's stop pretending it isn't. <br />
<br />
Also, obviously gainer fulls and gainer pikes are terrible garbage and need to be Bs, but...how many times, Alyssa?<br />
<br />
<b>Bars risk</b><br />
A change was made to the bars code before this season to encourage more release skills, but its consequence was essentially making Alex McMurtry do a Ray and that's all. Too many exceptions were built into the requirement, rendering it toothless and able to be fulfilled by transition elements, which while they do involve releasing the bar, should not be called release elements. They're transition elements. I don't think it's too much to ask simply to require a same-bar release from every routine. Once again, risk = yay. <br />
<br />
<b>Switch side + popa dance combination</b><br />
So over it.<br />
<br />
I'm fine with last year's decision to get rid of the requirement to show two different shapes in dance elements on floor because it was being applied exactly 1% of the time anyway, but continuing a theme, I don't think it's too much to ask to require that everyone perform a cross split element to 180 degrees in a floor routine. At this level, that should be compulsory. Plus, there are enough split-based elements in the code that it shouldn't get too repetitive. <br />
<br />
<b>BUT...don't make this elite</b><br />
One of the joys of college gymnastics for me is how much the stakes on each skill are increased by the demotion of difficulty and the ascension of execution. Little mistakes become massive, rendering every skill equally important. A small balance check on a layout stepout is the difference between a good routine and a bad routine, the difference between winning and losing, rather than an expected part of every beam routine. That makes watching meets so much more exciting because they can turn on every skill and for the most minute reasons, the smallest correction, the tiniest toe. If elite gymnastics finds beauty and significance in the very big, college gymnastics finds beauty and significance in the very small, and we shouldn't compromise that by rendering the requirements too many or onerous.<br />
<br />
Leveling the playing field between L10s and elites by making pristine performance and clean execution the epitome of excellence is a hallmark of college gymnastics that should never be lost. Still, that doesn't mean we can't raise expectations just a little. As we learned on vault this year. But...<br />
<br />
<b>Yurchenko "arabians" </b><br />
We're onto you. Let's correct this nonsense posthaste. Establishing a difference between Yurchenko halfs and Yurchenko arabians this year was silly, an irritating and unnecessary blemish on the season. Not only isn't it being applied correctly or strictly enough, it's also far too inside baseball for college gymnastics fans. If the judges are struggling as to the differentiation between the two, you can bet the fans are. Take the Yurchenko arabian down to 9.950 as well and make this vault change actually do more of what it was intended to accomplish.<br />
<br />
Still, in general the vault change was one of the major positives of the 2016 season. While yes, the biggest difference is that it encouraged more Yurchenko one-and-a-tucks to infiltrate vault lineups, I'll take anything that isn't a full, even if it's sloppy.<br />
<br />
One of the best things about the vault change is that it forever eradicated the argument of "the lesser schools won't be able to keep up and parity will be ruined" which tends to follow any attempt to raise the difficulty expectations in college gymnastics. The lesser schools did keep up, either through increasing difficulty themselves, employing more creativity on vault, or using cleaner fulls to gain ground/keep pace with schools upgrading to sloppier difficulty. "The lesser schools won't be able to keep up" is no longer to be considered a valid argument against increasing requirements on other events. See above. <br />
<br />
<b>Event finals...?</b><br />
I've made it no secret over the years that I am the Capulets to the event finals' Montagues, though I was still somewhat miffed by the decision to eliminate event finals altogether because it's another case of gymnastics shrinking itself down and voluntarily eliminating portions of itself. More, not less! Still, I ultimately found that I did not miss the Montagues much at all and in some ways feel that the championship was better without them. It lent more finality to Super Six and didn't actually end up giving us any crazy event winners. The event winners this year were more believable and realistic than they usually are.<br />
<br />
The system is not totally wonderful, though. We had a whole slew ties for event titles, which we don't need. A championship should have a winner. These ties existed even though we had six judges per event, which we were assured would eliminate the concern that everything would end in a billion ties. It didn't work. It just added a hideous and inconvenient extra decimal place that forced us to have to add scores together to get rotation totals rather than just looking at the scores and knowing instinctively what the total will be because we've spent that much time following college gymnastics. We don't have time for adding! Not in a championship!<br />
<br />
I would have no issue with returning the number of judges to four at nationals and just using RQS as a tiebreaker, which would also serve to provide some modicum of reward for being good during the regular season. Sure, tiebreakers based on previous meets are anticlimactic in a championship context, but event titles are anticlimactic at NCAAs anyway. They're by no means the focus of the meet, so why not award the titles based on a sensible tiebreak? <br />
<br />
Also, do we really need to give trophies and podium spots to eight whole places? They're not five years old. Not everyone needs a trophy. Champions, and then we're done. Hilarious podium human pyramids for third-place ties do not make up for a ridiculous number of awards being given out. It's so boring to anyone who isn't a parent. Stop forgetting that this is a sport for people who aren't the parents! This isn't JO. <br />
<br />
<b>Pac-12 and SEC Networks</b><br />
Another major highlight of the season was the work of the conference networks in increasing their coverage of college gymnastics and maintaining a commitment to doing it not terribly. Not terrible is the highest possible rating for a gymnastics broadcast. They gave us real coverage, frequently, and did it live with a team of broadcasters who were actually trying, did research, and knew things, even the ones who weren't gymnasts. It's a brand new world. <br />
<br />
The scoring display that the SEC Network/ESPN used at the SEC Championship and nationals was excellent, a relatively unobtrusive way of displaying a large amount of vital information in real time, helping casuals follow the action easily and providing each gymnast's score immediately for the benefit of diehards. There's still an issue with displaying the in-progress rotation totals because 37.6750 doesn't mean anything to anyone. We can't really see where things stand until five people have gone on each event, but I don't know exactly how you'd solve that while staying unobtrusive. The pop-up to give the individual routine scores for the in-progress team helps. If only we could have something like this for the Olympics. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J84JATtqPy8/VxglOb9OT6I/AAAAAAAABT0/oc9MtUAo48knDZiMDIyQr-zQCgd4W_KNACLcB/s1600/scores.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J84JATtqPy8/VxglOb9OT6I/AAAAAAAABT0/oc9MtUAo48knDZiMDIyQr-zQCgd4W_KNACLcB/s1600/scores.png" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
This commitment to appealing to both casuals and diehards carried through in the streaming decisions as well, providing the main commentary TV broadcast for casuals along with the event streams for diehards, proving that you do not have to choose between appealing to one or the other. Technology allows for both at the same time. The Bart/Kathy and Jim/Amanda/Sam/Greg/etc teams also show that commentary style does not have to choose, being accurate and precise enough that all levels of viewers will understand and enjoy what's happening, trusting the casuals to be smart and attentive enough to soak up the nuances of the code without talking above them, while never dumbing things down for the diehards. <br />
<br />
What I mean to say is, other broadcasts take note because this was my favorite broadcast of championships we've had. Not saying the competition was particularly fierce there, but it was still the best in a landslide. <br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-88142247408403205762016-04-16T16:59:00.000-07:002016-04-16T20:42:17.282-07:00Super Six Live BlogThe end's not near, it's here.<br />
<br />
This is the part where we're supposed to use a lot of nonsense sports cliches, I think. It all comes down to this. The best of the best. All in this together. Teamwork-sisterhood. Teamwisterhood. Lessons. Desire. Heart and grit and other terms that are ambiguous enough so as to avoid actually providing analysis or having anything to say. Montage beginning with a closeup of a sweat droplet to symbolize the hard work no one sees. Leave it all on the floor. Is that making you feel sporty and championshipy enough? <br />
<br />
Well, tough.<br />
<br />
Anyway, it's Super Six. So, try to enjoy it or whatever. Or actively loathe it if that's your thing. Utah fans, that's probably your thing today. We begin at 9:00 ET/6:00 PT. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=130553" target="_blank">LIVE SCORES </a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index#sport/gymnastics/type/livenow/" target="_blank">LIVE STREAMS</a><br />
<br />
Here is the rotation order, along with the semifinal scores for each team on each event. Once again, the highest score of that rotation is highlighted. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0wVYnbGPqY4/VxLBxj2EfjI/AAAAAAAABTo/NCgsK6JDjWAZpFzklH79U_xAU7hZsZ32QCK4B/s1600/supersix.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0wVYnbGPqY4/VxLBxj2EfjI/AAAAAAAABTo/NCgsK6JDjWAZpFzklH79U_xAU7hZsZ32QCK4B/s1600/supersix.png" /></a><br />
<br />
Alabama ending on beam, Florida ending on bars, LSU ending on vault...everyone always gets the same order. We all remember Florida finishing on bars last year because McMurtry, and Alabama had this rotation order in 2012, 2013, and 2014. UCLA also famously had this order in...2012? The year EHH went OOB in the first rotation and that ended up being the difference for the title. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Nothing that occurred during the semifinals gives any reason to question Oklahoma's status as the favorite to win this year, performing the cleanest gymnastics on the day. Although that was also true last year and the top four are pretty well bunched. <br />
<br />
The second will be a telling rotation as to LSU's chances, starting on bars. Scoring over 49.3 was a critical moment for the Tigers on bars yesterday, with Priessman showing her best routine of the season and Gnat coming in solidly as a replacement for Wyrick, and that performance must be repeated. I'm also curious as to whether Alabama can repeat the scores/sticks from yesterday's vault rotation or whether they used up the magic. <br />
<br />
Sophina on floor? Sophina on floor.<br />
I think she should be leading off, though. Famous routine status could overcome first-up stinginess to lift the scores for the whole lineup. Or this could all just be a clever ruse. <br />
<br />
In other news, Jay and Box have switched places on floor. OK. Why now, but OK.<br />
<br />
All I really ask is that this be more exciting than yesterday's meets ended up being at the end. Neither of the fourth-place teams ended up within a fall of the top three. Either no one falls on beam or everyone falls on beam. Agreed? It doesn't matter which, just pick one. <br />
<br />
Also, are we going to talk about how this bowling (<i>bowling</i>) that's on ESPNU doesn't look like finishing any time soon? <br />
<br />
We're getting close now. The chalk clouds are gathering. Inexplicable nervousness returns.<br />
<br />
RED ALERT: Because<i> bowling</i> is a thing, the competition will begin on ESPNEWS at 9:03 ET.<br />
<br />
We're still being asked to stand by on the streams. Yeah, we're standing by. We got it.<br />
<br />
The way this woman said "Kathy...Clarke, and Bart...Connor" is not OK. You do not stumble over the names of legends!!<br />
<br />
The gymnasts are basically summing up the opening paragraph of this blog. Like...too literally. Too word-for-word.<br />
<br />
Bart is welcoming us. Everything is historic and exciting and historic. Kathy is letting us know the importance of rest and rotation order. Fire in heart. Water in veins.<br />
<br />
<b>ROTATION 1:</b><br />
STREAMS STILL DELAYED.<br />
<br />
Baker - BB -good wolf turn - usual deliberate connection from walkover to bhs but secure - also secure on straddle to split 1/2 - side aerial to full, came in short on the full with a hop forward but great before that.<br />
<br />
Jones - VT - pretty much stuck her full, step-salute out of it but held the stick for a while. <br />
<br />
Price - VT - handspring pike half, not as strong as yesterday but still good - step to the side, chest down a bit more.<br />
<br />
small hop back for Cherrey on DLO on bars.<br />
<br />
Kmieciak - VT - large bounce back on her full, not the usual controlled landing we expect. This angle on vault is horrific, and that is one of her weakest vaults of the season. 9.775 is sort of high for that. <br />
<br />
Vaculik - UB - short opening hs - strong piked jaeger - clean legs on bail and vertical - hop back on tuck full this time, stuck yesterday.<br />
<br />
Ernst sticks a gainer pike.<br />
Honest went 9.8375 on floor.<br />
<br />
Capps - VT - small hop back on full. They're not getting the landings they did yesterday - others will have more distance.<br />
<br />
Schick - UB - great catch on piked jaeger - lovely line on bail - hitting handstands - near stick on her DLO.<br />
<br />
Scaman - VT - This broadcast is the Oklahoma show so far - a little off line on her 1.5 this time, some knees and a slightly larger step forward than last time.<br />
<br />
break for Fassbender, leg goes up on sheep jump but stays on - got through<br />
<br />
Jay - UB - good first hs - solid bail - Georgia great on the bars so far today - hit her shush in every meet this year - STICKS dLO 1/1 - excellent.<br />
<br />
Francis - FX -good control on double back - took it far but a small step back to stay in - crossover step on her 2.5, JUST does stay in bounds again - she is playing with fire but staying in -<br />
<br />
Jackson - VT - MUCHHHHHH better - step forward on 1.5 but fine.<br />
<br />
Rogers - UB - great Ricna, close on the pak but works out of it - solid shap 1/2 - nails perfect DLO, but the close catch on the pak will hurt her.<br />
<br />
Boren - BB - secure kickover front, very confident - nails loso series as well - solid positions on switch and straddle - small check/bend on standing loso - hop back on gainer full -<br />
<br />
Sophina is getting a full calf massage and hamstring massage for this routine.<br />
crossover step on her front 2/1, a bit awkward and lacking control - double back is better - L jump full is more defined in its position than it was before, when it looked like a botched wolf jump kind of - 1.5 to layout to sit split - a couple areas of form and not the control on the first pass, but useful.<br />
<br />
Oklahoma went 49.225. Not what they wanted. 49.400 yesterday on vault.<br />
<br />
Sloan - BB - smooth walkover to beat jump - solid loso series as well - strong switch and split - small step back on 2/1 dismount - <br />
<br />
Cipra - FX - opneed wayyyy to early on that double back, large bounce back - not what UCLA needed - 1.5 to half to straddle is better - another bounce back on double pike and OOB. "And someone hung up on her." Yep, this routine did. UCLA needed a 9.9 from Cipra and will have to drop the score. Rough.<br />
<br />
More hamstring massages from UCLA. <br />
Broadcast switching back to ESPNU now and freaked me out.<br />
<br />
Bynum - FX - Great DLO, controlled - controls the double back side pass well as well - one more pass to get through to drop Cipra's nasty - dance elements remain deductible, but she has cleaned up the tumbling control a ton - front through to double back, chest down and a bit of lean forward, still a useful routine. They'll be within range of the others after one, but probably wanted more from floor.<br />
<br />
Dana is REALLY southern today.<br />
<br />
<b>After 1: Oklahoma 49.225, Florida 49.2125, UCLA 49.2000, Georgia 49.1875</b><br />
Very tightly bunched after one. No one pulling away. Pretty much everyone would have hoped for a higher score than this, though. UCLA is the only one that bested the semifinal score on this event. Particularly Oklahoma gave away too much with those vault landings, and Georgia lost out on a big Brittany Rogers score because of that pak, and they need that score.<br />
<br />
Just a bit of wobblies on most of those Florida routines. Nothing major, but no big scores there, peaking at the Sloan 9.900000000000.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 2: </b><br />
Time for Alabama and LSU to get in on the 49.2 party. Anyone with a 49.4 could blow things out early.<br />
<br />
Savona - UB - Solid shap small leg break - hits bail - full to a stuck DLO, strong start.<br />
<br />
Brannan hits double arabian to begin for Alabama, step back - secure final double pike<br />
Cipra - VT - smller hop back on her full - one of her better ones, good distance and directions.<br />
<br />
Jay - BB -check and a second bend on her side aerial - kickover front to bhs is slow but fine - switch to shush to hip circle - sticks 1.5 because Brandie.<br />
<br />
Hambrick - UB - very high Ray - good position on full turn, just a small leg issue on the bail - sticks tuck full - magical routine, very well done.<br />
<br />
Gnat - UB - solid fuinish on full turn and excellent legs on gienger - leg break on bail and a couple toe and handstand issues - pikes down her DLO, small hop in place - good one. <br />
<br />
Honest - VT - slightly off to the side, small hop back.<br />
<br />
Meraz - VT - very little amplitude and dynamics - low landing but secure.<br />
<br />
Babalis - BB - kickover front and just walks out of it to cover up a wobble - check on full turn - <br />
<br />
Priessman - UB - loses legs a little on pak after tkatchev but both solid if not HIGH - hop back on her DLO this time and the piking second salto - <br />
<br />
Bynum - VT - hop forward on her arabian today. UCLA doesn't really have the vaults this year to make a splash in Super Six.<br />
<br />
Finnegan - UB - falls on her ray again - Gaaaaaahhh - inconsistent skill to her - Kathy's about to cry.<br />
<br />
Rogers - BB - strong bhs 1/1 - hits loso series well - hop forward on 1.5. Three hits. <br />
<br />
Preston - VT - sticks her full this time, bends and pikes to hold the stick - very high, not a lot of distance.<br />
<br />
Hall - VT - sticks her 1.5 - she found that vault suddenly. Wow. Still messy knees and legs apart to stick and a bit low.<br />
<br />
Zamardi - UB - good shap - leg break on pak, but minor - hits her khorkina - one short hs in there - step forward on double arabian, some moments to take away the big score, but LSU endures.<br />
<br />
Bailey finishes floow with a bounce back on a rudi -<br />
<br />
Broussard - BB -one-arm bhs to loso is good - sstrong switch and straddle 1/4 - hits side aerial slowly but confidently - sticks gainer full - <br />
<br />
Winston - FX - very secure DLO landing, just pikes her second salto a tad - front lay front full - high and controls her step out - great switch ring - huge double back, just moves her front foot and didn't need to because the landing was super secure. <br />
<br />
Let's not overuse "the best routine I've ever seen her do." I know I do it too, but still... <br />
<br />
Broussard just got a 9.9125 on beam. Dayum. The Georgia train is leaving the station.<br />
<br />
Box - BB - solid tuck jump full - hits loso series - tight on her switch again but lands well - lovely full turn style - no trouble with walkover - sticks 1.5. <br />
<br />
Beers - FX - keeps the DLO under control today - front leg is a little low on her switch ring, but split leap is solid - maintaining control much better on these passes - strong double tuck and chest up. Alabama will be out leader after this first rotation by a big margin.<br />
<br />
Schick - BB - check and bend at the hips on her loso series - lovely walkover to sissone - one-arm front handspring to switch - she has a wonderful style - gainer full with two steps, <br />
<br />
C Sims - FX - Strong DLO, some of her best chest position - straddles and splits are quite nice - chest down a bit more on double pike, but Alabama hit an important floor.<br />
<br />
LSU 49.125 on bars. Needed more, didn't get to use the Finnegan score and it hurt.<br />
Val is proud of their vault sticking, but the score still isn't high enough.<br />
<br />
Well, damn, Georgia.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>After 2: Georgia 98.550, UCLA 98.2875, Alabama 49.3750, Oklahoma 49.2250, Florida 49.2125, LSU 49.1250</b><br />
Advantage Alabama.That's the first rotation score that looks worthy of Super Six, along with Georgia's beam. Alabama has given itself an edge. Oklahoma needs to do some Oklahoma bars to get back into it. Floor scores rising, let's see how Florida is evaluated. Both teams will be hurt by another 49.2.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 3:</b><br />
McNeer - VT - sticks her full with a bend forward -<br />
<br />
Macadaeg - BB - Macadaeg things - walkover to straddle, small bend correction on her straddle - hits loso series - gainer no problem. Great hit.<br />
<br />
Jackson - UB - piked jaeger is good - nice vertical on bail - handstands look fine - hop in place on tuck full.<br />
<br />
Guerrero - VT - small hop back on 1.5 -<br />
<br />
Lehrmann - UB - good height on jaeger - perfection on the bail, no pike, no angle, noleg separation - sticks her tuck full. What Oklahoma needs.<br />
<br />
Hambirck - BB - secure on side aerial - good extension on switch and straddle 1/4 - solid loso series - hop back on her 2/1.<br />
<br />
Bailey - VT - lunge forward on her y1/2 this time.<br />
<br />
Capps - UB - great position on full turn - flatter tkatchev - small leg break on bail - calm and precise final hs - sticks her tuck full without a question. Strong work again. "Chayse Capping off..." OH KATHY YOU CARD.<br />
<br />
Brannan - VT - shawn johnson crossover step on her 1.5 - not as strong as floor/vaulting yesterday.<br />
<br />
Cannamela - BB - secure loso series this time - fine switch - bend correction on her straddle 1/4, loses her toe point in the splits - standing loso to beat jump is fine - hop forward on 1.5. <br />
<br />
Beers - VT - basically sticks her 1.5, very good - B and K are calling it a stick but she quivered a little in the feet - <br />
<br />
McMurtry - FX - triple full, staggered landing but secure, crossed legs (being picky because it's not as perfect as the narrative is making it out to be) - front lay to front full with a bit of a step forward - chest down a bit on double back with a lunge forward - <br />
<br />
Kmieciak - UB - low chest on tuck full with a jump forward, she's just a little off tonight. <br />
<br />
Bresette - VT - sits her omelianchik. They don't need the score.<br />
<br />
Wofford - UB - great finish on full turn - high jaeger, no close catch this time - one borderline handstand in here, there's always something isn't there? - oooooh, suddenly doesn't stick her tuck full, step forward and chest down. Weird.<br />
<br />
Sloan - FX -1.5 through to 2.5, keeps her back leg down on the lunge but it is a bigger one - excelletn high straddle position as always - slides back on her double pike - 1.5 to layout to college back salute - excellent final pass. Will be big score.<br />
<br />
Finnegan - BB -good wolf turn - fine loso series - magical split positions, small bend after the 1/2 - covers well on side somi, was a little forward but swung her arms back to save - side aerial to full - off line but sticks.<br />
<br />
Baker - FX - STICKS Dos Santos - yes she did - wonderful - nooooooo, huge bound back after her double pike, somehow stays in bounds but a massive deduction there - final pass is perfect, and it basically could have been a 10 if she hit the middle but instead it should be the dropped score.<br />
<br />
Gnat - BB - a little tight on that walkover but fine - solid switch and straddle 1/4 - LSU is going to start soaring on the second half events - switch side is a bit crooked - huge wobble on series, stayed on the beam but a major bend and swim, will be dropped.<br />
<br />
Caquatto - FX - 2.5 to front tuck with a step forward, too much of a step so probably a lack of control deduction - travels a bit too much on the rudi to straddle but not too bad - strong straddles - excellent double pike. <br />
<br />
Wait, how did Baker still get 9.825 for that routine? That middle pass alone...<br />
<br />
<b>Halfway: Alabama 98.700, Oklahoma 98.6750, Florida 98.5750, Georgia 98.5500, LSU 98.4625, UCLA 98.2875</b><br />
Clooooooooose. The game is on. Georgia has done very well to keep pace going to floor and vault. Anyone's game. Except UCLA's. But still doing fine, just not Super Six level. Alabama vault scores a bit looser than they were yesterday because the landings were weaker but the score isn't ALL that much lower. Oklahoma destroyed bars to get back into it, but Wofford had basically her worst routine of the year, which took away a truly massive score.<br />
<br />
Lots of high numbers in that rotation, which was weird because I thought the scores were pretty contained early on. Someone broke out the booze too early.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 4:</b><br />
Fassbender hop back on full.<br />
<br />
Kmicieak - BB - check on side aerial - short on double back dismount with step forward. She's been short on a lot tonight. <br />
<br />
Reynolds - FX - bounce back on double pike - 1.5 to a very flat layout, overcooked the 1.5 but pulled it around - this choreo doesn't really fit the music at all - like at all - fine rudi -<br />
<br />
Francis nearly sticks double pike, small hop - <br />
<br />
Caquatto - VT - larger bounce back this time.<br />
<br />
Sloan - VT - alllllllmost sticks her full but I'm going to call that step before showing control - she held the stick for a while but then lean/salute/stepped.<br />
<br />
Lehrmann - BB - lovely walkover and loso series -sticks 1.5 - that will do just nicely.<br />
<br />
Boren - VT - sits her 1.5. Struggles both days on it. Yikes. Counting a 9.7 now.<br />
<br />
Ohashi - UB - toe on - solid bail, good vertical, very small leg sep - xcellent handstand before tkatchev - very low landing on tuck full with a lunge forward, will take away the score.<br />
<br />
Baker - VT - basically sticsk that 1.5 - another excellent vault - small movement of the feet - good direction - yeah, that's a step back.<br />
<br />
Catour - BB - strong walkover -<br />
<br />
Lee - UB - gorgeous Bhardawj - catches shap 1/2 as well - excellent final hs - hop back on DLO but solid -<br />
<br />
McMurtry - VT - lovely usual full - small hop back -<br />
<br />
Brown - BB - lovely walkover to bhs, slow but keeps her arms moving throughout - beat jump to straddle 3/4, hits the straddle position - strong switch to stuck gainer full - that girl has FOUND this routine. It's now clearly the second best on the team. <br />
<br />
Rogers - FX - better control on final double pike, chest a bit down - <br />
<br />
Babalis - FX - good control on DLO but piked it a bit more this time, she bounced back yesterday and corrected out of that - excellent straddles - 1.5 to layout slide forward - bounce on double pike<br />
<br />
Jones - strong and secure on loso - a little low on kickover front but works into beat jump - switch and split are solid - MUCH better than the switch + switch series she was doing earlier in the year - step forward on 1.5. Good hit.<br />
<br />
What judge gave McMurtry a 9.950 for that, you know, DEFINITELY NOT STUCK vault?<br />
<br />
Jay - FX - improves the full out, chest down but no question of control - sticks front 2/1 to front tuck, no question - wolf full is still not happening, with the position or the full - front full is controlled as well, to quote Kathy - IT'S THE BEST SHE'S EVER DONE.<br />
<br />
Capps - BB - smooth on loso series - no trouble on full turn - walkover to loveliness to unicorns - switch to straddle 1/4 is nice - this is stronger than her semifinal performance, which was a little tight - sticks gainer full. a moment of legs on an early bhs, but not much else there.<br />
<br />
Box - FX -DOING THE TROUBLE FRONT - large lunge forward but who even cares - props - 1.5 to layout - good straddles - maintains control on double back. Will drop the score, but yay for doing it!<br />
<br />
Oklahoma 49.425 on beam puts pressure on Alabama's bars now.<br />
<br />
<b>After 4:Oklahoma 148.100, Florida 147.900, Georgia 147.600, UCLA 147.3875, Alabama 98.7000, LSU 98.4625</b><br />
Can Oklahoma's floor hold off Florida's bars? Can Alabama and LSU smoooosh themselves into the mix as well. This thing is going to be GOOOOOOOD in the last rotation. Making up for yesterday and then some. Florida's semifinal bars score was just .025 larger than Oklahoma's semifinal floor score. Alabama went 49.3125 on bars in the semifinal and needs at least a repeat. LSU needs a home floor rotation right about now.<br />
<br />
A ghost just passed through Kathy Johnson as she tried to say Morgan Reynolds. It was like "Roewernolds." <br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 5:</b><br />
McNeer - UB - a bit close on her ray but ok - an arch on a hs in there - just some moments early - bail - better later handstands - hop back on DLO.<br />
<br />
very low landing for Broussard on vault, step forward, one of her weaker of the year (TAKE THAT KATHY).<br />
<br />
Ewing - FX - goes OOB on her double pike with a step. Now what LSU needed.<br />
<br />
Beers - UB - solid shap to pak combo, tiny leg breaks, good rhythm - strong final hs - large lunge forward on double front - uh oh. Won't be the score they wanted.<br />
<br />
Marino - VT - step back on 1.5 - off line - knees - pretty good control though<br />
<br />
Hambrick - FX - solid once again on her DLO landing - 2.5 to front tuck - she goes straight up on that 2.5 - precise splits - bam double pike - she has brought it throughout this championship - great meet. <br />
<br />
Snead - VT - medium hop back on full, great form - <br />
<br />
Bailey step back on full out.<br />
<br />
Jetter - UB - good ray this time - a little short of vertical on bail? - good legs together - hitting hs - better double front than Beers - small hop in place.<br />
<br />
Rogers - VT - a bit short on her 1.5 this time, step back.<br />
<br />
Jay - VT - hop forward on her 1.5. Neither did their 1.5s the way they can - steps this time.<br />
<br />
Kelley - FX- MARY LOU ALERT - great control on DLO - a little lack of control on middle pass, slide forward - tuck jump full is a good choice that more gymnasts who aren't so splitty might now - another smaller slide back on double tuck. "Her mom helped her lift off." Yeah. She used Mary Lou Jesus juice to push her daughter's tumbling pass up. 9.900 is a Retton score. <br />
<br />
Winston - UB - beautiful Ray and her wonderful pak as walsy - smmmmmalll hop in place on DLO.<br />
<br />
Brannan - UB - great legs on bail - wonderful final hs - legs apart on DLO but great stick. Precise work.<br />
<br />
Savona - FX - 1.5 through to double tuck, short and a step forward. Tuck full ius better, as it pretty much always is - really went for her dance elements this time, but hopped landing them - positions were good, but forgot about her control - bounce out of double pike - not her best.<br />
<br />
DeJesus - BB - a little squatty on her kickover but holds on - good position on her switch - attitude 1.5 - hop forward on gainer front lay full.<br />
<br />
Wyrick - FX - she has been inconsistent with some of these landings - better on the tuck full this time, just a small scoot on landing - secure landing on half to layout to half, just legs apart - high straddles and hitting the positions - 9.8875?<br />
<br />
Francis - BB - walkover - sort of devastated that this is the last time we'll see this routine - strong loso series - switch and split are excellent - y spin is great as well - dismount: stuck it again! Great way to finish!<br />
<br />
Gnat - FX - bounces a little back of that DLO, Jay Clark is in the way again - ugh - 2.5 to front tuck - hitting position on switch ring and tj - big double pike, smallest quiver of foot - good one. LSU is in this.<br />
<br />
HERE WE GO. One to decide it.<br />
<br />
Danusia beam 9.950 puts UCLA just ahead of Georgia in the fight for 5th.<br />
<br />
<b>AFTER 5: UCLA 196.825, Georgia 196.8125, Oklahoma 148.100, Alabama 147.9875, LSU 147.9250, Florida 147.900</b><br />
Wow. Legitimately four different teams could win this going to the last rotation. Oklahoma leads and is going to the highest-scoring event that has seemed to be getting a little loose as the meet has progressed. So, perhaps some advantage Oklahoma, but this is going to be last-routine intense. <br />
<br />
LSU will finish first with vault and will set the standard. Oklahoma gets to put up the last routine of the meet. We've seen that work for Bridgey before.<br />
<br />
OK. Brace yourselves.<br />
<br />
<b>ROTATION 6:</b><br />
McNeer - BB - walkover to bhs is strong - full turn - wobble on loso series! - sticks 1.5. <br />
<br />
Brown - FX - controls front 2/1 well - front lay to front full JUST stays in this time after OOB last time -good rudi -<br />
<br />
Cannamela goes 9.900 for a yfull, scores going up -<br />
<br />
Boren lunges forward on DLO after an arched hs<br />
<br />
Ewing - VT - small hop forward on 1.5 - good direction -also gets 9.900. Judges very excited in the last rotation.<br />
<br />
Finnegan - VT - sticks a full - very well done - not a lot of distance, but great control on the landing and chest up.<br />
<br />
Capps - FX - small bounce up on her double pike, chest up - front full to front layout, fine - chest up and controlled on rudi - <br />
<br />
BDG - UB - good shap to bail and legs together - stics her usual straddled DLO.<br />
<br />
Caquatto - UB - a bit close on ray this time, minor, bent elbows - good bail - excellent final hs -squatty landing on her DLO but holds the control. <br />
<br />
Savona - VT -larger pace forward on 1.5.<br />
<br />
Hambrick - VT - small hop back on very straight 1.5. <br />
<br />
Gnat - VT -good DTY - hops back - better distance, still a little legs.<br />
<br />
Sloan - UB -Great Ray - legs and angle on bail hs again - strong final hs - sticks the DLO no question - basically identical routine to the semifinal.<br />
<br />
A Sims - BB - secure loso series. Small hop forward on double tuck. 9.900. <br />
<br />
Gnat gets the 9.950 with the hop back. Huge vault total for LSU. 197.450.<br />
<br />
McMurtry - UB - piked Ray but good catch - strong bail and vertical - sticks her tuck full. Would basically need to be a 10. 9.925. Florida a tenth behind LSU!<br />
<br />
Jones - FX - 2.5 to front tuck is strong.1.5 to layout with a bound, keeps her back leg down but a pretty large lunge - loses toe point and not the most extended on her dance elements - very secure double pike, chest minorly down but minorly - scores are going up in the final rotation, and this should be no exception.<br />
<br />
Winston - BB - great split and straddle 1/2 - perfect psition - she's slow in her beam work but no technical deductions - good walkover - full turn - hop forward on double tuck. Did Alabama succuimb to that big dismount difficulty just a little here?<br />
<br />
Guerrero - BB -three series to loso is great - sticks dismount - great meet for Alabama. It won't be enough to win this thing, but a great meet. <br />
<br />
Jackson - FX - strong first pass - controlled - half to front full, small stuble this time but small - high and bouncy straddles. Jackson doesn't have to do much now, just hit. opens up out of double pike and nails it. That should be good enough to take the pressure off of Scaman.<br />
<br />
Can't imagine that won't be enough. It's an Oklahoma day. I can't say it isn't deserved. Very very close meet, and Oklahoma did not start that well on vault, but has been the most precise team across four. All teams have been overscored in this last rotation, though.<br />
<br />
Alabama finishes 197.4375 just behind LSU.<br />
<br />
9.9125 for Jackson. High.<br />
<br />
Scaman - FX - huge DLO, good control this time - coronation senior floor performance for Scaman - rudi to extended loso - great straddles - nails double tuck - they didn't need it, but that would surely have done it anyway, even if they had shown a mistake. Scaman giving all the photographers their pictures.<br />
<br />
Florida finishes FOURTH. Who had that one.<br />
<br />
KJ said "Holy cow."<br />
Keeley Kmieciak crying, "I don't even know what to do." <br />
<br />
<b>FINAL SCORES: </b><br />
<b>Oklahoma 197.675, LSU 197.4500, Alabama 197.4375, Florida 197.3500, UCLA 196.8250, Georgia 196.8125</b><br />
<br />
It's going to take a while to process that thing. Very even meet. Oklahoma the cleanest team. You can argue the difficulty, but those routines were, overall, the most precise. I'll want to go back and watch some more of Alabama because I feel like I didn't see enough of those routines. Great meet, didn't have the vault landings from yesterday, which could have been a difference maker. LSU finishes second! Great result for them, finished on the right events at the right time, but needed more from bars at the beginning.<br />
<br />
Florida hmmm. Surprised by this result and it will be very disappointing for them, but good result for a new coach. Just bits here and there. Not getting the Boren vault score that they rely on. Not getting the Baker floor score, which is equally if not more important. Starting on beam and not getting the benefit of those rising beam scores also hurt the ultimate total. Rotation order was important today. I would contend that Florida's beam was better than LSU's and yet scored over a tenth lower.<br />
<br />
Based on the routines I saw and my vaguely fuzzy memory in the aftermath of the competition, my rankings would have been Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, UCLA. Fair? Unfair? Switch Alabama and Florida? What about yours? <br />
<br />
PA announcers giving instructions is one of my pet peeves. "Gymnasts, please salute your fans." Like they wouldn't have otherwise. Shut up.<br />
<br />
Everyone's dancing. DD is bouncing.<br />
Alabama is doing a really good job of pretending to be happy about finishing third.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com60tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-62489208749441480682016-04-15T10:01:00.000-07:002016-04-15T19:54:12.274-07:00National Semifinals Live BlogThe time is now. The teams are here. The beam is angry. The only thing we have to fear is everything. <br />
<br />
The first semifinal begins at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT, so you'll be familiar with this as the moment when you start to get weirdly nervous, like <i>too</i> nervous, even though you're not one of the competitors and don't even have a vested interest in one result over another. And yet you're still inexplicably freezing. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=130550" target="_blank">Live scores </a><br />
<a href="http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=130552" target="_blank">Live scores - Semifinal #2 </a><br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index#sport/gymnastics/" target="_blank">ESPN3 stream-a-thon</a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
By way of unnecessary repetition and...it's nationals today!...here's the rotation breakdown with team RQSs for each event. The highest score in each rotation is highlighted, i.e. the team that "should" win that rotation/gain ground there, but mostly just so that there are colors here to make it look brighter and therefore interesting. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1zIXtFZzWcg/VxEYRFW9xRI/AAAAAAAABTI/W_fp3WqN1_oAqesYaxXjCbxZF7ZrnHyvQCK4B/s1600/semirots.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1zIXtFZzWcg/VxEYRFW9xRI/AAAAAAAABTI/W_fp3WqN1_oAqesYaxXjCbxZF7ZrnHyvQCK4B/s1600/semirots.png" /></a></div>
<br />
<a name='more'></a>The first semifinal begins with the favorites, Florida and LSU, on byes, so we'll get a useful look at the presumed fight for the third spot with Auburn on vault, Stanford on bars, Georgia on beam, and Minnesota on floor. For Stanford, leading after this rotation is essential since bars must be such a high mark. For Georgia, it's all about enduring. A whisker over 49 again? They'll take it. We can talk about how important this rotation is to all the teams, but really this is about being glued to every quiver of a toe for Georgia on beam. No performance is more pivotal in this session. <br />
<br />
ESPNU is showing the Sarah and Suzanne Insane Blouse Championship Documentary right before each session of the semifinals, just to get you in the mood if you want.<br />
<br />
Remember, six judges per event in the semifinal now. Don't freak out.<br />
<br />
In typical Stanford fashion, Ivana Hong is doing the AA suddenly today. For the first time in exactly three years, since the day she tore her ACL on vault in the semifinal.<br />
<br />
Ashleigh Gnat is in the AA, adding another option to the AA champion race. Wyrick is out. She hasn't been scoring that well since coming back, but her peak score is higher than Gnat's, so LSU perhaps taking a hit on what has been the most questionable event. <br />
<br />
Florida's lineups are intact, and Baker is returning on all the events along with McMurtry on floor. So really the ideal lineups for Florida. Fassbender is the one who makes way on floor.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yuiurOMtbQI/VxEqV8xStoI/AAAAAAAABTY/yXRNpJgE4AQMILNGMMrqmrxCv3nf_e0AwCK4B/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2016-04-15%2Bat%2B10.39.01%2BAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yuiurOMtbQI/VxEqV8xStoI/AAAAAAAABTY/yXRNpJgE4AQMILNGMMrqmrxCv3nf_e0AwCK4B/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2016-04-15%2Bat%2B10.39.01%2BAM.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
It better.<br />
<br />
Well, now that SEC Storied: I Love Your Bracelet Where Did You Get It? is over, let's get to the action, right? Right?<br />
<br />
Bart and Kathy are welcoming us. Everyone is amazing. News.<br />
<br />
Event feeds are slightly on the struggle bus right now, but we're still in warmups.<br />
Would you like to watch Ivana Hong do a hundred toe ons in a row? Why, yes I would.<br />
<br />
Chalk up those inner thighs, Brandie.<br />
<br />
Wait, have we started? Bart! Focus!<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 1:</b><br />
<br />
Step back from McNair on the bars dismount for Stanford.<br />
<br />
Kopec vaulting for Auburn - following a bounce back from Garcia on a full.<br />
<br />
Don't worry, we already aren't getting scores.<br />
Jay - BB - hits side aerial - slowish on kickover front to bhs but no wobbles - switch to clear hip - hop forward on 1.5. Great start. <br />
<br />
Taylor falls on bars! NOOOO! couldn't catch jaeger!<br />
<br />
Big moments for the other McNair and Maxwell now fro Stanford.<br />
<br />
Nicki McNair got a 9.8125 on bars. Stab me now.<br />
<br />
Piking from Kopec on her full -<br />
<br />
Babalis - BB - Up second? - tentative walkover to loso but secure - good switch - long pause before kickover front, very well performed - hop on front full. Two solid hits so far. <br />
<br />
9.7625 for Jay on beam - tight score<br />
<br />
Krippner on vault - very low and piked landing on her full, bends chest down at the hips, step forward, not what they needed.<br />
<br />
D McNair - UB - catches jaeger well - to overshoot - not much amplitude on shoot but fine - DLO with a hop back. One down.<br />
<br />
BRog - BB - slight check after opening walkover - secure switch 1/2 - great bhs 1/1, calm and secure - another small bend on her loso series, but not significant errors - hop forward on 1.5, off to the side. Three hits.<br />
<br />
Demers - VT - no distance but better chest position than the others.<br />
<br />
Hit bars from Maxwell, one short handstand. Bend to keep stick on double tuck.<br />
<br />
Waiting on Price for bars now.<br />
<br />
Price - UB -strong hap to upraise - great church to bail, perfect vertical on the bail - hitting handstands - small hop back on DLO, but excellent.<br />
<br />
Rott - VT - large hop back on her full - better dynamics and body position, but they needed a stick from her.<br />
<br />
Broussard - BB - solid loso series<br />
<br />
Hong - UB - WOGAtchev but hit - wonderful bail - magical handstands - pikes down her DLO and hops back. They got through with a hit rotation, but perhaps not the huge score they needed.<br />
<br />
Atkinsons - VT - small step forward on her 1.5. Good, opportunity to save the rotation a bit with that.<br />
<br />
Broussard hit.<br />
<br />
Have I mentioned how much I hate this extra decimal place?<br />
Minnesota doing what was needed, getting 9.8s on floor, bounce back for Demuse.<br />
<br />
Box - BB -slightly underrotation on tuck jump full but secure - exceptional loso series, good extension and confident - switch and straddle 3/4 were a little better in the split as well - pause before walkover, nailed - sticks 1.5. Georgia is hitting. Scores are just OK, but this is the most confident beam rotation of the year for Georgia through five.<br />
<br />
Gardner - FX - rudi to loso, comfortable but crossed legs - secure landing on double pike, slightly loose knees, excellent straddle positions - strong splits throughout in this routine - 1.5 to lay - fine. <br />
<br />
Schick is going on beam for Georgia! Back from the dead! No pressure, just return ot the lineup after months to do a beam routine at nationals. They have five hits already.<br />
<br />
Schick - BB -slide back on loso series but hit - walkover to sissone - smooth but slow on full turn - she is lovely on beam and will be NEEDED next season - small bend on one-handed walkover - good switch - minor bend on walkover - sticks gainer full.<br />
<br />
Oh NBD, just our best beam rotation of the season. <br />
<br />
Mable - FX - lovely high double pike, small slide - lovely attitude, very high straddle elements - travels a bit on her punch rudi to straddle - 1.5 to lay with a bit of a bounce as well - nothing to take on form, just a couple moments of landing control.<br />
<br />
Northey on beam now as an individual - secure dance series - large break on her loso series, saves it - another step back on her kickover front - small steps on 1.5.<br />
<br />
We're still waiting on Mable's score, but looking like Georgia will have the LEAD after BEAM.<br />
<br />
Porter - FX - great height on her double pike, controlled step back - strong dance elements, 180s - 1.5 to layout at about the middle of the floor - nails double back - very good, worthy of a high score.<br />
<br />
<b>AFTER 1: Georgia 49.1125, Minnesota 49.0375, Stanford 49.0250, Auburn 48.9625</b><br />
Laura just asked Graba what a giraffe thought of his team's vault rotation, and he was like FML I don't know...<br />
<br />
Scores tight everywhere, except not really on floor so far. Not a good rotation for Auburn. That needed to be a 49.2, and this isn't. Some short vaults and struggles on landings. No Kluz as well. Very few of these people would have been expected to vault at the beginning of the season. <br />
<br />
OK for Stanford, enduring the Rice fall, but 49.0250 is not high enough for bars with vault and floor still to come. Pressure on the team to pick up those scores now. Minnesota solid, over 49, but a BIG rotation for Georgia. Not necessarily the score, but leading the teams they're competing against after their weak event is a huge development. Advantage Georgia.<br />
<br />
In rotation two, we'll get LSU and Florida joining things, while Minn goes to vault and Stanford to beam. This being the last opportunity for Stanford to get a massive number, this beam score needs to be big. Beam scores were fairly tight in Georgia's rotation.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Rotation 2:</b></u><br />
McLaughlin - FX - front lay to front full with a stick, nice start - wolf full is around - bouncy and ragged a bit on the rudi -<br />
<br />
steps for Savona on her DLO but hit -<br />
<br />
Step back from Nicki McNair on her loso series -hits side somi - bend on full turn - just a little right -htis side aerial - small hop on 2/1.<br />
<br />
Hambrick - UB - catches Ray well - small break in the legs on thebail - sticks tuck full - loverly. Should be a good score. <br />
<br />
Bart said Hoist instead of Holst.<br />
<br />
Rice - BB - secure straddle to sheep - calm full turn - solid kickover front if a bit low - FALLS on gainer full! TAYLOR!<br />
<br />
Gnat - UB - solid first handstand - a little late on full and strong legs on the gienger - some short handstands here and a form quiver on the bail - pikes her DLO with a leg separation and hop forward. OK. Usable. Wont be a large score.<br />
<br />
Priessman - UB - Hits tkatchev - good vertical on half turn on low bar - solid handstands - whips around DLO and sticks - her best bars routine of the season by several miles.<br />
<br />
Hong - BB - Stanford competing with even more pressure on every routine now. FUN! slow connection on onodi through the bhs but also Hong - lovely full turn - nailing all her dance - sticks gainer pike. HONG.<br />
<br />
McMurtry - FX - Hits 3/1, a little less staggered than last time - some crossed legs - front lay to front full with a bounce forward - a bit uinderrotated on dance elements - solid landing on double tuck, chest a bit low.<br />
<br />
They're losing their shit about McMurtry's 3/1. Best in the world, Bart? Really?<br />
<br />
Finnegan - UB -strong tkatchev this time - hitting handstands - legs together on that bail - no question in these hs - sticks DLO. Magical. Wonderful routine.<br />
<br />
Mable - VT - gorgeous full, stick. Wow.<br />
<br />
Price - BB - solid walkover - strong layout series as well - smalllll step on doubel pike - should be another excellent score - <br />
<br />
Sloan - FX - Small hop forwar don 2.5 - strong and secure double pike, high, perhaps a tiny slide back? - 1.5 to layout is excellent - Florida and LSU in control so far.<br />
<br />
Zamardi - UB - good shap to pak - legs together on that pak throughout - solid khorkina - close on double arabian and a step back.<br />
<br />
Chuang falls on beam. Stanford is out. Counting a fall now.<br />
<br />
Baker - FX - Oh hi, I just nailed my Dos Santos - a little short on her double pike again this time, which is where she hurt herself at regionals, but seems fine, a step forward - strong split positions - 1.5 to half to straddle is excellent.<br />
<br />
Daum trying to save something for Stanford, but this meet is basically the team's nightmare so far.<br />
Daum - BB -walkover to bhs is hit - a little tight on full turn - hits side aerial - <br />
<br />
Bridgey - FX - front double to front tuck is solid - very awkward on split jump out of middle pass, swings her arms and stumbles slightly landing it - great straddles - double pike is fine. <br />
<br />
Dukes for Kentucky on beam. Exciting future for Kentucky on beam. strong full turn - very secure loso series - solid walkover as well - hitting splits - sticksish 1.5. <br />
Hyland on floor - a little short on double pike but OK - soldi 1.5 to lay.<br />
<br />
<b>After 2: Minnesota 98.075, Stanford 97.500, LSU 49.325, Florida 49.300, Georgia 49.1125, Auburn 48.9625</b><br />
Minnesota doing what was necessary and staying steady, though they'll need a couple more teams to Stanford to get into this. Stanford could not afford those first two rotations, and now has to go to the weak events. LSU and Florida pulling away early. Particularly impressed by LSU's beam score.<br />
<br />
LSU heading to beam in the third rotation. Should get interesting. Auburn also needs some nailed DLOs on bars to avoid giving up a serious deficit to Georgia.<br />
<br />
Dukes, Hong, and Price are all currently tied for the lead on beam. Yeah, no ties with six judges...<br />
<br />
<u><b>Rotation 3:</b></u><br />
Macadaeg - BB - Do you think Kathy has it in her contract that they have to show Macadaeg? Good switch to switch half, secure and lovely - walkover to straddle is refined - strong loso series - small steps back on gainer full - THE SOPHOMORE DIDN'T LOSE HER MIND.<br />
<br />
Reynolds - FX - a bit low chest on double pike and some lack of control, but very small - 1.5 to lay, slightly whipped - rudi<br />
<br />
Bridgey bounces back on her full as usual - good amplitude - high chest position -<br />
<br />
Hambrick - BB -strong side aerial - switch to straddle 1/4 - hits loso series - hugely high 2/1, hop back.<br />
<br />
Sloan - VT - sticks her full. No trouble for Florida today.<br />
<br />
Kopec - UB - good jaeger - hitting slow and precise handstands - a leg break in there - hop back on DLO. Needed a stick there.<br />
<br />
Boren - VT - very very short on 1.5, stumble back, stays on her feet.<br />
<br />
Babalis finishes floor with a secure double back.<br />
<br />
Cannamela falls on beam. Two great ones, but now trouble trobule tume - off on a standing loso.<br />
<br />
Baker - VT - much stronger - great height and everything, hop forward.<br />
<br />
Rogers - FX - No Snead on floor today - low in that double pike with a staggered landing. <br />
Kluz - UB - strong straddle back - sticks a great DLO. That's the landing they needed. <br />
<br />
McMurtry - VT - alllllmost sticks her full, tries to save with a small hop forward. Great in the air.<br />
<br />
Ewing - BB - hits layout to 2 feet - crooked switch side as it often is but secure - bend correction on full turn, telltake sign of tightness - solid standing loso to straddle 1/4 - sticks 1.5.<br />
<br />
Milliet hits bars, Marino bounces OOB on her DLO on floor - not what Georgia needed<br />
<br />
Atkinson - UB - Strong tkatchev - one tight hs in there - obviously stuck her stuck full.<br />
<br />
Finnegan - BB - hits her wolf - this is the critical routine - break on her loso series, leg-up wobble but still elegant because Finnegan - wonderful leaps - hits side somi - side aerial to a stuck full. One more to get through.<br />
<br />
Box - FX - nails her double pike as always - 1.5 to layout is strong, you can see the leg break from this angle but not all - good 180 on straddles and gets the turns around - music stops - strong landing on double tuck regardless.<br />
<br />
Gnat - BB - switch and straddle 1/4 is fine -no trouble on switch side - wonky legs form on loso series but strong - sticks 2/1, a bit off to the side. No repeat of the trauma for LSU.<br />
<br />
Jay - FX - large stumble on her full out - right after I praised her improved control this year! - did she go OOB on it? Not going to be a particularly high rotation score for Georgia. The rest was fine. <br />
<br />
Artz doing Artz things on beam at the same time. Hop forward on 2/1.<br />
<br />
Mills - BB - slow combo on walkover to bhs series but her lovely style obviously - Kathy needs to meet and fall in love with this routine - great switch form - bend forward on side somi - sticks aginer full.<br />
<br />
<b>Halfway: Florida 98.650, LSU 98.625, Georgia 98.075, Minnesota 98.075, Auburn 98.050, Stanford 97.500. </b><br />
Not nearly the expected score for Georgia on floor, opening this thing back up for the others. It's the help Auburn needed, but Auburn and Minnesota still have to do beam. What if Minnesota qualified?<br />
<br />
Chiarelli - FX - strong double arabian, stayed in bounds with a minor hop forward - 1.5 to layout to front tuck, small slide as well - solid splits - goes for a full in - lands short with a lunge forward.<br />
<br />
Georgia goes to vault and Auburn goes to beam. Georgia must build up a multi-tenth lead with this rotation, otherwise it's advantage Auburn. Minnesota to bars. Bars is like Minnesota's beam.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Rotation 4:</b></u><br />
Broussard - VT - so glad we cut away just as she was landing -<br />
Hlawek - BB - large break on opening series and falls. Yikes. OK auburn here we go - solid kickover front - shortish on 1.5 with a hop back.<br />
<br />
Was that Cutler on bars for Minnesota? Opening fall as well. You're welcome, Georgia.<br />
<br />
Marino - VT - 1.5 is off to the side and short, hop back, similar to Boren.<br />
<br />
Snead - VT - bounces back on full - we all want the 1.5 next season. <br />
Cerio BB - strong loso series.<br />
Gardner - UB - solid jaeger - hits bail - toes - good position on double front but a large bound forward - will have to count. <br />
<br />
Rogers - VT - NEAR stick on the 1.5 - smallest quicker with one foot. Excellent, will be a very important score. <br />
<br />
DeMuse - UB - really struggling with form - Kathy tells us this is a resumption of the routine - fell on piked jaeger. Another one bits the dust. Minnesota counting a fall on bars.<br />
<br />
Jay - VT - STICKS 1.5. No question. There you go. That will score higher than Rogers, who got a 9.900. This is looking like Georgia's day in spite of that floor rotation. 9.950. One judge goes 10. <br />
<br />
Krippner - BB - solid full turn - annnnnnd she's off.<br />
<br />
Johnson hop back on her full, her best of the season so far?<br />
<br />
Northey VT - very good full, small hop forward - leg form throughout is strong.<br />
<br />
Minnesota bars meltdown. Third fall of the rotation. Bars is Minnesota's beam.<br />
<br />
Demers - BB - competing with dead eyes - solid loso series - check on sheep jump - side aerial to stuck full -<br />
<br />
HONG ON FLOOR - slides back on double pike, lovely movement style and everything, obviously - pretty secure passes as well - wonderful to see her get to do floor on her last competition day. Feelings.<br />
<br />
Milliet also has a check on her sheep jump - Mable hit bars with a couple form issues - wonderful loso series from Milliet - bend correction on full turn - a little short on walkover and great save without a wobble - sticks gainer full.<br />
<br />
Spector - FX - bounds forward on double arabian - also a slight stumble on front lay to full - solid double back.<br />
<br />
Atkinson on floor now -the AA fight is still very real - strong loso series - smooth walkover - switch and wolf, almost had a correction on the switch and worked well into the wolf - goes for double pike! hop back.<br />
<br />
Price - FX - a little short on DLO with a hop forward - tremendous leap amplitude - slide forward on front lay to front full - this is the most I've ever seen Ebee perform. nails double back.<br />
<br />
Stanford has moved back ahead of Auburna nd Minnesota since now all of the teams are counting a fall somewhere, but Georgia has a lead of greater than a point over all of them. As long as Georgia hits five for six on bars, we'll see the Gymdogs again tomorrow, and Florida and LSU now have the luxury of counting a fall and still being fine if they'd like.<br />
<br />
Interview with Danna. She's doing a really good job not just leaning into the camera and shouting "BLAMO!"<br />
<br />
This rotation is still going on? Tsang on floor for Penn State.<br />
<br />
"It's going to be a tight battle to see which teams make it through." No. It isn't.<br />
<br />
Baker, Sloan, Mable, Hambrick, and Price are all REALLY close in the AA right now, but the Floridas and LSUs still have two events left. <br />
<br />
<b>After 4: Georgia 147.350, Stanford 146.425, Auburn 146.200, Minnesota, 147.7375, Florida 98.650, LSU 98.625</b><br />
<br />
Fourth rotation was decisive here. Auburn and Minnesota both counting falls, Georgia going to 9.9 town on vault.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Rotation 5:</b></u><br />
Ewing - FX - small slide out of front 2/1 this time - front full, whips around her layout this time, flat but pulls it around - strong straddle combination - bounce back on souble pike - not her best control, but a solid routine. <br />
<br />
Baker - UB - sticks her double front this time, huge boost for Florida.<br />
<br />
Chuang a bit low on her y full, chest down bend and a step.<br />
Boren follows with a stuck DLO.<br />
<br />
Hambrick - FX - pikes that second salto a bit on the DLO, though Kathy seems happy with it - but maintains great control - 2.5 to front tuck - precise on split and wolf - secure double pike, chest up, nailed. She's having a big old day.<br />
<br />
Nonspecific McNair vaulting - small step back on that full, but good form and dynamics. <br />
<br />
Caquatto - UB - strong Ray - lovely hs - exccellent vertical on bail, legs together - either sticks or a small slide back on DLO. Will be a big score. Yeah, hop back.<br />
<br />
Hong - VT - sticks a full. Not a big vault, close to the table, but she stuck her final vault, so I'm fine with it.<br />
<br />
Sloan - UB - ooooh, has the leg separation in the bail this time, and a little too angled - sticks the DLO. Great finish, we'll see about the score. 9.950. You knew it would be.<br />
<br />
Strong double back from McKenna Kelley.<br />
<br />
Price - VT - allllmost sticks her DTY, just comes in a little short with a small hop forward.<br />
<br />
McMurtry - UB - Small leg break on the bail this time - small hop back on tuck full this time - she relies on sticking that but Florida is in crusie control right now.<br />
<br />
Savona - full in middle pass, slide back - she opened with a controlled 1.5 to double back, slightest bit short but didn't show up in the landing that much, great double back to end.<br />
<br />
9.900 for Price. Remember the time she got the same score when she stuck?<br />
<br />
Wyrick - FX - she's still OK to do floor. Stumble landing on full in with a bounce - great height on her dance elements - strong control on double back - <br />
<br />
Mable on beam at the same time - just being Mable - lovely series, small check on walkover, almost tried to turn it into scale but just a check - side aerial to a stuck full.<br />
<br />
Gnat - FX - bounces back a bit on her DLO this time, slightly awkward this time - 2.5 to front tuck is good, but she may have given up the vault title with her landing on the first pass - good switch ring and tj 1/2 positions - slide back on double pike.<br />
<br />
Nordquist - BB - side aerial to loso opening acro series - strong, maybe small adjustment - good switch side this time - hits full turn - a little short on switch 1/2 - side aerial to a full with a bounce in place. 9.9125. She's leading beam. For now.<br />
<br />
"Kristen, this was a terrible day, so let me not ask you about any of that."<br />
<br />
Artz - FX - finishes with a solid double pike, chest slightly down but OK control. <br />
<br />
<b>Stanford finishes 195.575. Minnesota finishes 194.9875.</b> Neither will be strong enough. <br />
Florida and LSU running away, Georgia in control with a hit bars rotation. <br />
<br />
In the first AA fight of the day, Ebee comes in ahead of Mable. 39.550 to 39.5375. Still waiting on Sloan, Baker, Hambrick, Atkinson etc in the last rotation.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Rotation 6:</b></u><br />
Snead - UB - nice tkatchev - very clean legs on that bail, nailed vertical position - low landing on DLO with a hop forward. Shame because the rest was great. 9.800. That will do. <br />
<br />
Good double pike from Milliet on floor, Baker hitting beam, Cannamela nearly sticks full on vault, hop back.<br />
<br />
Ewing - VT -solid 1.5, step forward, not as much distance as some other 1.5s will have.<br />
<br />
Ernst - BB - good wolf, a little squatty on kickover front, but secure - aerial to back tuck, slow in combo as so many front to backs are, but hit - gainer pike.<br />
<br />
Cherrey on bars, a couple form breaks, especially on giants at the end, but they just need hits.<br />
<br />
Milliet just does stay in bounds on final pass -<br />
<br />
Finnegan - VT - fake stick on her full, steps back to salute - lovely form -<br />
<br />
Vaculik hitting - form beak on her bail, pulls it together and saves it - sticks tuck full. Three hits. Two more to go.<br />
<br />
Hlawek a bit short on final pass on floor.<br />
<br />
Savona - VT - much better landing on her 1.5 this time - step forward and some mushy knees, but much better control.<br />
<br />
Schick - UB - good piked jaeger - no trouble on the bail - sticks DLO. Georgia having a magnificent day.<br />
<br />
Rott - FX -large bounce on DLO and another step, just not Auburn's day today. Little mistakes everywhere and then a big one on beam - nearly goes OOB again on second pass - big bounce again on double pike.<br />
<br />
Fassbender had a check on her full turn on beam but otherwise fine. <br />
<br />
Hambrick - excellent form and height on full - hop back and a little off to the side -<br />
<br />
Jay - UB - good toe on - solid bail - gets through the shush well enough - hop back on DLO full - and Georgia just made Super Six.<br />
<br />
Gnat - VT - also a small hop back on her DTY. Hmmm, both Price and Gnat hopped, Jay stuck her 1.5. LSU is also through. <br />
<br />
Rogers - UB - nice stalder - escellent Ricna, the usual closeness on the pak but works through it comfortablyu thsi time - strong shap 1/2 and NAILS her DLO. Get it!<br />
<br />
McMurtry going through comfortably - hop back on 2/1, and Florida completes the set of qualifying teams. <br />
<br />
Hambirck in ahead of Price in the AA. Sloan still to go.<br />
Rogers and Sloan are tied for the lead on bars.<br />
<br />
Demers on floor -<br />
while Sloan is on beam - lovely walkover from Sloan - secure on loso series as well - switch and split very strong, this is one of the Sloan good ones - long pause before dismount - sticks 2/1. That will put her into first in the AA. Kathy talking about moving Bridget to the anchor spot, which is wrong. She has anchored every single meet this year. <br />
<br />
Atkinson - FX - good chest height on full in - controlled landing - front full to layout to wolf, goes OOB. Shame. Typifying Auburn's day. Bounces on double pike as well.<br />
<br />
Tears time.<br />
<br />
Sloan into first on beam. Rogers and Sloan tied on bars. Jay first on vault. Hambrick is winning floor. Well, I was wrong about Gnat on vault and Atkinson on floor, but I've still got Rogers on bars alive. <br />
<br />
<b>FINAL: Florida 197.475, LSU 197.3375, Georgia 196.725, Stanford 195.575, Auburn 195.100, Minnesota 194.975 </b><br />
<br />
Sloan's 39.700 leads the AA. Hard to see anyone in the second session beating that, tbh.<br />
<br />
Well, this thing was decided by falls. Stanford, Auburn, and Minnesota all counted falls, which ended their chances since Georgia had a hit meet. Particularly disappointing day for Auburn, sort of off from the very first rotation and not able to get it back. Well below their capabilities.<br />
<br />
PHEW. Three hour break, and then into our next semifinal. Be a little bit more exciting at the end, please, second semifinal.<br />
<br />
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
OK, goblins. The second semifinal is nearly upon us. Already. The first semi was supposed to be the exciting one, but then Georgia finished more than a point clear of the three challenging teams. This second semi is supposed to be the boring one, so it has some work to do to break free of this type-casting.<br />
<br />
The first rotation will be all about telling us if an upset is in the cards. UCLA's bars rotation in particular should be an experience. What secrets do they have in store for us? <br />
<br />
Lineup news already. Ohashi is returning on bars and Mossett is returning on floor. No DeJesus on floor still, but Mossett can be a step up based on what she was doing in January.<br />
<br />
Pua Hall is anchoring vault. Yeah, I don't know about that...<br />
<br />
We're up with the original second-semifinal scoring link now. Again. UGH. Why must you toy with us like this?<br />
<br />
OK, time to have energy again. Come on.<br />
<br />
It begins. For a second time.<br />
<br />
Guess who's dancing. It's Danusia. <br />
Watching UCLA's bars warmup now. Ohashi did like a quarter of a skill, and Peng overbalanced a handstand. Get that one out of your system.<br />
<br />
Alabama is "bringing their lunch pails" to the meet today. I'm sure that's not allowed in gymnastics.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Rotation 1:</b></u><br />
Francis - UB - good first hs - solid shap to bail, some leg break this time - muscles a finial handstand a little but sticks that double pike this time. Good start.<br />
<br />
Rowe - VT - holds the stick on her full, almost bend forward to take a step - some soft knees but good control on landing.<br />
<br />
Lopez - VT - nice height, but too much power, large bounce back. Weaker landing than the last few weeks.<br />
<br />
Meraz - UB - short first handstand - slightly floppy legs apart on her bail but OK - better hs before tkatchev - a bit flat - DLO, legs apart, chest down and a hop forward.<br />
<br />
Partyka - VT - hops back on her full - she can stick that one as well, not bad but giving things away on these landings.<br />
<br />
Nebraska low opening scores. Cal very high opening scores. 9.8875 leadoff of beam. Dayum.<br />
<br />
Ohashi - UB - toe on - bent elbows - fine bail, small legs papart - hits the WOGAtchev - low landing on full out with a hop forward, but VERY helpful to have her back.<br />
<br />
Lewis - VT - step forward on full.<br />
Hughes - VT - 1.5 - better vault - hops slightly back/to the side, but solid control, a step up on difficulty, and just a bit of a hop.<br />
<br />
PENG - UB - ggood dhap 1/2 - low landing on DLO with a large bounce forward - won't be the 9.950 they wanted from this routine.<br />
<br />
Delaney - VT - good stick/near-stick on her full - she's been having more stick issues this season - good distance obviously, a bit off to the side.<br />
<br />
Just a 9.825 for Peng. They're getting through bars but getting stuck in the lowish middish 9.8s.<br />
<br />
Howe - BB - tentative on walkover with a lean correction - split and stag are very nice - secure loso series - side aerial to a full with a hop forward.<br />
<br />
Williams - FX - just missed a punch on her middle pass - sat it down - they'll be counting a 9.6 on floor now.<br />
<br />
Honest - UB - solid in the straddle back - the usual routine from her - stuck landing on tuck full. Saw the second hanlf and looked like a good one. 9.8625 for her.<br />
<br />
DeJesus - UB -good full turn finish position - usual gienger - legs mostly together on bail - one borderline hs - sticks tuck full with a MUCH better chest position. One of her good ones, good improvement on that.<br />
<br />
Draghi - loso series, small quiver -pike jump to sheep with a balance check - good full turn to a lovely split jump - hop back on gainer full - a couple errors but still a usable score.<br />
<br />
Laeng - FX - huge routine - bounce back on opening double pike - short of opening split leap, better on wolf - front full to front pike is fine - errors but a countable routine.<br />
<br />
Richardson - BB - wobble on loso series, leg goes up - switch to straddle 1/4 is much better - Cal started really well on beam but has been giving away bits in the later routines - hop back on high double tuck. They'll take this beam rotation score - over 49.<br />
<br />
Blanske - FX - good high DLO and controls the landing - front lay to rudi to stag, secure, crosses her legs a bit in the rudi - nails double pike - necessary score, but they'll still be sub 49 for floor, which is trouble.<br />
<br />
<b>After 1: UCLA 49.2375, Utah 49.1000, Cal 49.0750, Nebraska 48.9625</b><br />
Lisa Burt on floor - obsessed with her layout to two feet out of her opening pass - good straddles and splits - bounces back on double pike - sticks rudi.<br />
<br />
UCLA right on RQS after one rotation, but the rest of the teams below. UCLA will be the most pleased with that score, didn't let bars become a weakness. Cal will also take that beam score. Utah would have hoped for more from vault but did not have the landings, some serious bounces on those vaults. Nebraska did as well as could be expected with those landing errors, but floor scores are 'too critical to be OK with a sub-49. Lots of pressure on the other events to be strong and mimic what Georgia did.<br />
<br />
UCLA must reinforce that bars score with a solid beam rotation to get things really moving here. Nebraska to vault, Alabama will start on bars and Oklahoma on floor now.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 2:</b><br />
Williams - VT - not much distance - solid form - step forward<br />
<br />
McNeer - UB looked a lad short on that bail this time - just a tight routine in places - hop forward on her DLO. Solid, a little less precise than her usual. <br />
<br />
Brown - FX - did she go OOB on her opening? Very close. Strong rudi, good form - <br />
Wobble for Gerber on her series - better on her dance elements - solid side somi - sticks gainer full - worjs through unexpected wobble.<br />
<br />
Beers - UB - goos shap and pak opening - msall leg breaks - good hs - just the smallest hop on her double front. Alabama needed that from her. Good.<br />
<br />
Crouse has a large pace back on her yfull.<br />
<br />
Capps - FX - gooood double pike, chest up and secure - all the chreography points obviously - front full to floaty front lay with a bit of a bounce but not uncontrolled - excellent straddle elements - nails rudi, chest up - one of her best routines of the year acrobatically -<br />
<br />
Breen - VT - hop forward on yhalf -<br />
Hit beam from Meraz - hop forward on 1.5<br />
<br />
Bailey - UB - wonderful jaeger - excellent and crisp bail, vertical and legs together - great full out and just the smallest step. Alabama hitting bars well so far.<br />
<br />
Winston - UB - high but close on her ray this time - sublime pak - smooth handstands - small hop on DLO - nice - just a tad given away on all these landings, but it shoudn't be a big deal for them.<br />
<br />
Shapiro - BB - three series into loso is right on - solid switch to split - side aerial to full, step back - the first three did their jobs - <br />
Kmieciak - great chest position on her landings her - <br />
<br />
Brannan - UB - strong jaeger - hits bail - sticks DLO - there's the stick.<br />
<br />
Looks like a wobble from Ohashi out of the corner of my eye on her layout - better on walkover - layout stepout through to near-stuck full dismount. More solid, but not huge, performances.<br />
<br />
Blanske sticks a 1.5 on vault. Boy, has she kept that team in it so far today.<br />
<br />
It's a 49.3125 for Alabama on bars. They'll take that.<br />
Jones - double pike final pass - chest up, nailed. The chest position on the tumbling passes is really setting OU apart even from the other top teams right now.<br />
<br />
DeJesus - BB -walkover to bhs, usual speed but secure - strong save on her kickover front, small chedck but one foot was totally up - switch and shushunova is good, attitude 1.5 which always looks like she's correcting a mistake - front gainer layout full - almost sticks it, holds stick for a second then leans forward to salute.<br />
<br />
Jackson - FX - half to rudi is strong - half to full second pass is so floaty, just a quiver of a leg adjustment - some indistinct finish positions on her switch side and popa but great 180s, opens up on double pike, also secure.<br />
<br />
Francis - BB - good walkover - strong loso series - hits switch and split perfectly - nothing to take so far - y spin is better than usual too, higher leg position - dismount - side aerial to full is stuck. That should finally get UCLA into the 9.9s. One of her best, and that's a tough standard.<br />
<br />
Scaman - FX - high DLO, controlled step back and keeps it in bounds - rudi to loso - nails double back - fantastic routine to finish a fantastic rotation. Oklahoma is here. 9.8875. 49.450. <br />
<br />
Francis 9.950 on beam to tie Sloan. <br />
<br />
Gardiner - FX - 2.5, slightly crossed legs and controls the step forward out of it - 1.5 to half to straddle is a bit low but corrects well - strong control on doubel pike.<br />
<br />
<b>After 2: UCLA 98.600, Nebraska 98.0125, Oklahoma 49.4500, Alabama 49.3125, Utah 49.100, Cal 49.0750. </b><br />
UCLA will take this score and this performance, especially because scores have been tighter today, though they would have hoped for another 9.9 or two on beam to really get a strong total. They've left work for Utah to do on bars, however, needing a 49.500 to tie. Oklahoma was excellent on floor and Alabama solid on bars if just a tad steppy for a .050 that didn't need to be given away on most of the landings.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 3:</b><br />
Moment of beam truth for Alabama.<br />
<br />
McNeer - BB - smooth walkover to bhs, solid - full turn - check on loso series - switch and split are easy and solid - sticks 1.5 off line.<br />
<br />
Jones - VT - nearly sticks her full but ends up bending and hopping and incurring way more deductions than she needed to - <br />
<br />
Price - VT - GREAT handsrping pike half - legs and small hop, but that's really it.<br />
<br />
near stick for Partyka on bars, very small slide back. <br />
<br />
Lewis - UB - solid finish position ion full turn - one short handstand post release but everything else looking clean - strong DLO, smallish quiver of a step back.<br />
<br />
Kmieciak - VT - FAB vault. Sticks her full. Extended body position. At least 9.9000. If not 9.9500.<br />
<br />
A few moments of leg form for Brannan but a useful hit.<br />
<br />
Schwab - UB - WOGAtchev but hit - good toe point and legs together on that bail - strong handstand and stalder - sticks double back - that will be a big score. <br />
<br />
Capps - VT - sticks her full as well - a little deeper landing than Kmieciak, but also stuck - <br />
<br />
Sanders - BB - switch to straddle is strong - large break on loso series, though with a bend at the hips - <br />
Scaman - VT - just a small step forward on her 1.5. Great control this time. Just the step and some knees, otherwise excellent -<br />
<br />
Lopez - UB - strong form on bail - another stick on a DLO - doing what's needed to get back to UCLA.<br />
<br />
Hughes - UB - amazing cover on her routine to work into the tkatchev but she did have an extra swing there - sticks tuck full - should be a hit, though.<br />
<br />
Sims - BB - just casually sticks a double back. You know. Aja Sims.<br />
<br />
Jackson - VT - Sits her 1.5. Comes in way short. Damn. They didn't need the score by any means.<br />
<br />
Rowe - UB - muscles first hs a little - good position in full turn - better distance away from the bar on her tkatchev - a little tight on bail but great form - small slide on DLO. Good, not her best.<br />
<br />
Winston - BB - fantastic splits - slow but lovely walkover to bhs - slow routine, pause deduction? - hop back on double tuck. Another strong score.<br />
<br />
Wellick here as an individual - hitting bars - that dismount trouble is gone, small hop forward on double front.<br />
<br />
Cal staying in the 9.7s on floor - Sylvie Seilnacht is the one who's into the lineup for Williams - bounces back on her double pike and goes OOB. Rough. Better 2.5, crossed legs but secure - small stumble on 1.5 to layout. <br />
<br />
Huge landing error for Taylor Allex on her 1.5, lunges back and off the mat.<br />
<br />
Guerrero - BB - very strong two losos series - secure - a little slow on her switch to straddle combo, but I'm sure it will be fine - side aerial to a full with a hop forward.<br />
<br />
Draghi - FX - bounces back on double tuck - front lay to front full is better - nails rudi - <br />
McGee - BB - swings her arm on her standing loso but covers well because she's just Nina McGee and she waves her arm on her beam routine - same on loso series - large break on straddle jump, wobbles but stays on - sticks gainer full.<br />
<br />
Drenth is rotating with Cal, finishing the rotation on floor - slide back on double pike - strong straddle positions - also bounces back on rudi - 1.5 to layout, a little whippy.<br />
<br />
<b>Halfway: Oklahoma 98.8500, Alabama 98.6125, UCLA 98.6000, Utah 98.3875, Nebraska 98.0125, Cal 97.9500</b><br />
Oklahoma starting to pull away, but UCLA will be pretty happy keeping pace with Alabama through two, though everything about UCLA has the caveat of vault still to come. That's why UCLA will hope to build up a bigger lead on Utah in the next rotation, on floor while Utah is on beam, because otherwise a lead of this side will be too attackable when Utah finishes on floor. Utah has the misfortune now of having not yet done beam while both UCLA and Alabama have.<br />
<br />
Leduc on floor - bounces back and OOB on opening double pike - <br />
<br />
KJ getting a little Cheshire cat about Oklahoma's performance so far. She's acknowledging that they are amazing. "Yes, thank you, I am great."<br />
<br />
Extended closeups of Val being all Val.<br />
<br />
Ohashi FX - secure double tuck - 1.5 etc middle pass but looks like she went OOB in the middle of it, should not be a high score - low chest on doubel pike, lunge forward. <br />
Partyka - BB - switch is good, straddle 1/4 a bit tight - side aerial with a large break and off the beam. OK, Utah, this is it. Five must-hit routines.Two switches series - hop forward on 1.5.<br />
<br />
Errors from Crouse on bars - extra swing -<br />
<br />
Delaney - BB - straddle to tuck jump full is tight but secure - small bend on loso series - just moments of awkwardness, and then a fall on her standing loso. Tried to save with everything she had. Two falls to start beam for Utah. I guess the UCLA party is really on now.<br />
<br />
Wow. Tight tight tight tight tight. That was the theme of the first two routines for Utah.<br />
<br />
Mossett - FX - works into double tuck well - splits and acrobatic choreography are wonderful - but very deep landing on her final double pike, just does avoid putting her knees down - <br />
<br />
Robinson - VT - front handspring to handspring front pike - a leap forward this time.<br />
<br />
Hughes - BB - small check on loso series but looking so determined - very tight on splits as well and short of split but getting through - side aerial to full was WAYYYY off line, huge stumble and off the mat, no fall...but near equivalnt.<br />
<br />
Francis - FX - slides back on the whip to double back this time - just a little lack of control on the 2.5 as well, no major issues but not as secure as it has been this year - great split positions - lock-kneed on that double pike with a small awkward stumble. UCLA not great on floor so far with these landings, but Utah has ensured it doesn't matter so much.<br />
<br />
Lopez - BB - great opening switch and straddle 1/4 - secure on her loso series - fine full turn - front tuck is confident, the first confident skill I've seen from Utah on beam so far. Hop back on 2/1. <br />
<br />
What has happened on bars? I see Laeng with a 1 and the feed has gone out.<br />
<br />
Now we're getting the update - Laeng is still down on the mat and being attended to.<br />
<br />
Rowe on beam meanwhile - switch to straddle 1/4 is nice - legs in loso series but secure - the moonwalk isn't so fun today - great stick on 1.5. They're pulling it together, but it's likely too late.<br />
<br />
UCLA getting some 9.8s here, but they'll need some scores from Cipra and Bynum anyway - high double back, keeps the front foot down - very strong switch ring and split positions - also what fun to do this now, with the Laeng injury - came in very awkwardly on her middle pass, landing staggered to try to punch into straddle, fine but not ideal and will be a deduction - nails double pike.<br />
<br />
Oh gah. Laeng still down on the mat - getting the head board for her.<br />
<br />
Stover - BB -check on walkover - good full turn - very strong switch and straddle - split ring works well - hits gainer full - <br />
<br />
Bynum - FX - huge DLO as always, good control - small bounce out of double tuck middle pass this time - half twisting sissone - front tuck through to double back, chest down a little but controlled -<br />
<br />
Laeng being carried off now. Jessica in the arena is communicating good signs, like moving her knees and the spine board being precautionary. <br />
<br />
Brown - FX - fine double pike, a bit locked with a bounce up - great extension on split elements - small bounce on double tuck.<br />
<br />
Blanske resuming on bars - strong jaeger - hitting excellent handstands - step back on DLO - good hit - smiles with her stick and then immediately back to devastation -<br />
<br />
Laura with an update on Laeng - smiling and feeling OK -<br />
<br />
Williams - UB - DELTCHEV (that was a) - great hit - small leg break on her bail - squatty landing on tuck full but holds it - small step -<br />
<br />
Tom really pleased to be interviewed right now. When Laura said "little bit of a hard start," he was like, duh.....little bit?<br />
<br />
Well, more drama than we needed there.<br />
<br />
<b> Anyway after 4: UCLA 147.7125, Cal 146.850 Nebraska 146.800, Utah 146.5250, Oklahoma 98.8500, Alabama 98.6125</b><br />
Aside from Laeng's injury, Utah's beam implosion was the story there, Utah falling to last. Can pick up the ranking with a big floor, but really all UCLA has to do in the next rotation is land vaults to their feet to assure a spot in Super Six. <br />
<b> </b><br />
<br />
Bart also informing us that Cal is getting a .100 neutral deduction for competing out of order. Well, this really was the weirdest rotation ever. Although Cal's score just went up, so...not sure what's going on there.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 5:</b><br />
Brannan FX - solid double arabian, step forward stays in bounds - chest slightly down on double pike but not a real problem - 1.5 to layout - solid, nromal, good start - <br />
<br />
Cipra - VT - very deep landing on her full with a lunge forward.<br />
<br />
Nebraska opening with a check on a sheep jump on beam.<br />
<br />
Honest - VT - sticks her full - strong landing - low chest and feet, but great stick -<br />
<br />
Lehrmann - UB - lovely toe point and handstands - jaeger - broomstick bail - step forward on tuck full.<br />
<br />
Meraz - VT - large bound back out of her full - <br />
Jetter strong 1.5 to front full on floor - <br />
<br />
Capps - UB - great finish position on full turn - hits tkatchev, lowish - solid bail - sticks her tuck full. Damn. She's in it to challenge Sloan with a Capps beam.<br />
<br />
Just caught a fall from Nebraska on a side somi but didn't see who it was.<br />
<br />
Bynum - VT -two steps back on her arabian - UCLA is doing enough but will have to improve on these floor and vault performances.<br />
<br />
Bailey - FX - solid double arabian, control on that landing, back foot stays down - strong twisting throughout, should be another very useful score - Alabama cruising now -<br />
<br />
Kmieciak is a little close on her Ray - good vertical on the bail - hop forward on tuck full dismount, fine but not her strongest. Will keepo hger behind Capps in AA<br />
<br />
Preston - VT - also a large bounce back on her full, but better dynamics than the others.<br />
<br />
Hall - VT - Sticks her 1.5 this time. Somehow. Crazy legs and squatty landing as always, but sticks it.<br />
<br />
Wofford - UB -great full turn position - solid jaeger, though not as big and high as sometimes, bent elbows - toe point is magic - great vertical on bail - sticks tuck full. Nice. 9.9375, lower than Sloan/Rogers - <br />
<br />
Breen - BB - solid one-arm bhs to loso - hitting everything - sticks 1.5, small lean to hold onto the stick but does.<br />
<br />
UCLA finishes 196.700, which will be plenty.<br />
<br />
Beers - FX - high DLO but steps back and OOB - also dances forward on 1.5 to layout - better control on double tuck, will be a fine score but probably dropped because of the OOB.<br />
<br />
Blanske - BB - check working out of her three series to loso, bent knees - high front tuck and very secure - switch side -sticks 2/1.<br />
<br />
I wish this day had been a little more exciting. Looks like both semifinals will end in landslides.<br />
<br />
C Sims - FX - good high DLO, chest isn't too bad this time - bounds forward on her middle pass, pretended it was controlled but too big to be really controlled - good security on double pike, chest down but solid - <br />
<br />
Williams - BB - finishes side aerial to a full with a hop back.<br />
<br />
Interview with Val. "Chill gymnastics"<br />
Nina McGee floor in the background of Miss Val interview - but we see her stick that DLO, so it's fine - pauses in the middle of her dance element series but strong positions on both - front full to layout, just does keepo that back foot down - nails double pike. Let's watch the score. Hambrick is still the leader, but this has to be higher, right?<br />
<br />
9.950 for McGee. She is the floor leader. Deserved.<br />
<br />
<b>After 5: UCLA 196.700, Nebraska 195.7750, Oklahoma 148.3125, Alabama 147.900, Cal 146.8500, Utah 146.5250</b><br />
<br />
UCLA is already going through. Cal would have to get a 49.850 on bars to tie, which isn't happening.<br />
Oklahoma and Alabama really just have to hit a couple routines. Both could probably count a fall and still be fine. Will be interesting to see how Utah reacts on floor now to being all-but-mathematically out of this.<br />
<br />
Bridget Sloan has the AA unless Capps gets a 10.000 on beam, then it would be a tie. She could get it.<br />
<br />
Kmieciak on beam - check on loso series but fine -double tuck, swims to hold the stick<br />
Rowe FX - low chest on double pike, small hop - solid 1.5 to lay to end - <br />
McNeer - VT - sticks full, leg up but stays in place.<br />
<br />
Takara - UB - great high gienger - hop forward on tuck full -<br />
<br />
Lehrmann - BB - smooth walkover - a little tight in bhs loso series in the chest but secure - good switch side - sticks high 1.5. Yep.<br />
<br />
Bailey - VT - brings her 1/2 back FINALLY - sticks - smarter to do it because she could do it as a fake arabian - it isn't but that hasn't stopped some others. Great vault.<br />
<br />
Guerrero - VT - hops legs together on 1.5 - her form is more ragged, but that will be a big score as well.<br />
<br />
9.9500 for Bailey. Perfect scores from all six judges. <br />
<br />
Brannan - VT - also sticks her 1.5. Alabama is vaulting like MONSTERS.<br />
<br />
Beers - VT - step forward on 1.5 - best distance of the group -<br />
<br />
Brown - BB - walkover to bhs - lovely - <br />
Howe resuming bars after a fall - step back on double tuck - <br />
<br />
Sims is getting to vault! Instead fo Bresette - because they're just like...psssh great height on full, a little piking and a hop back - runway strutting down the vault runway -<br />
<br />
Checking in on Partyka - chest down on rudi but secure -<br />
<br />
Jones - BB - strong loso series - smooth full turn - kickover front to beat jump, slightly low but secure - switcha nd split lose toe point but good 180s - glad they got rid of the two switches series - sticks 1.5. Well hi Oklahoma - <br />
<br />
McGee - VT - small hop but mostly nailed -<br />
<br />
Schwab - FX - stumble back on double pike - how do you think she felt when Hong used this music earlier - like "oh, crap" when Ivana uses your music is like showing up in the same Oscar dress as Charlize Theron - finishes 2.5 with a hop together.<br />
<br />
Capps - BB - strong loso series to beat jump - lovely style on full turn - slight bend on her walkover this time and didn't do it to scale, takes away the AA and probably the beam title - good switch and straddle - sticks gainer full - still a great routine, probably not an event-winning one.<br />
<br />
Hughes - FX - high double pike, comfortable landing - high 1.5 to layout with a slide forward - hits doubel tuck.<br />
<br />
9.9125 for Capps.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>FINAL: Oklahoma 197.7875, Alabama 197.3875, UCLA 196.700, Cal 195.8500, Nebraska 195.7750, Utah 195.7625</b><br />
So...who had Utah finishing last in this session? Would have been really interesting if Utah had hit beam. Probably still goes to UCLA based on the lead they had to begin with and the scores on the other events, but it would have been exciting.<br />
<br />
Bridget Sloan wins the AA with a 39.700, as we all sort of knew she would.<br />
<br />
<b>Event winners:</b><br />
VAULT: Jay and Bailey (?!?!?!)<br />
BARS: Rogers and Sloan<br />
BEAM: Francis and Sloan<br />
FLOOR: McGee<br />
<br />
So, now the question is whether the judges all gave Bailey a perfect score or if they (incorrectly) gave her a 10.0 SV. <br />
<br />
Dana Duckworth is screaming and holding up some salsa for no reason. Honey, you have Super Six tomorrow. You can't start drinking yet.<br />
<br />
Super Six tomorrow is Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and UCLA.<br />
<br />
Meets decided by falls and not close at all, which is a bit of a letdown. Still entertaining, and I have to say the race to the event champs actually made today more entertaining than it would have been, even though I've railed against it. Otherwise, we would have been snoozing toward the end of this.<br />
<br />
Nothing I saw today hurts my impression of Oklahoma as the favorite, but we should have a very good four-way race there regardless. Georgia and UCLA's victory is likely making it this far, but we know they can both 197 their way through this.<br />
<br />
Super Six rotation order: Oklahoma (vault), LSU (bye before bars),
Georgia (bars), Florida (beam), Alabama (bye before floor), UCLA
(floor). Miss Val got her loathed rotation order. <br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b> </b><br />
<b> </b><br />
<b> </b>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com74tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-12421177487074994792016-04-14T11:28:00.000-07:002016-04-14T11:42:38.460-07:00The National Championship Is TOMORROWTomorrow. As in, you know, <i>tomorrow</i>.<br />
<br />
Let this be your headquarters for all the necessary and wildly unnecessary links and information you could possibly need for the championship. But before I present the links, I have some truly terrible news. Nationals will be using statbroadcast for the live scores. Sigh. They might as well be sent by raven or etched in cuneiform on a tablet and then buried by the sands of time. We all need to be there for each other in this time of crisis. <br />
<br />
At least ESPN is continuing the system from SECs and giving us both a TV broadcast and the four-event online view. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=130550" target="_blank">"Live" scores </a><br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index#sport/gymnastics/" target="_blank">ESPN3 four-event and single-event streams</a><br />
<br />
Going with the main TV feed and the four-event window seemed to work well during SECs. We'll still miss things because there are too many important events going on at one time, but now we have only ourselves to blame instead of the old "I CAN'T BELIEVE THEY DIDN'T SHOW HER, BURN LIFE," which is actually a shame. It's a gymnastics tradition. Where would we be without it?<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d8Yga43KEXM/Vw_QWG-MEEI/AAAAAAAABSg/GPyJlgIYvZMSWAUqPB5DOUb9hVvxOXoZwCK4B/s1600/nats.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="359" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d8Yga43KEXM/Vw_QWG-MEEI/AAAAAAAABSg/GPyJlgIYvZMSWAUqPB5DOUb9hVvxOXoZwCK4B/s640/nats.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Times are central, with semifinal #1 at 1:00 CT and semifinal #2 at 7:00 CT. Just know that it's your whole day. You will not be able to do anything else. These are the rules. Super Six is later this year than in the past, at 8:00 CT on Saturday. Oooh, nighttime. Spicy. <br />
<br />
<b>Previews</b><br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/04/national-championships-preview-part-1.html" target="_blank">Semifinal #1</a><br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/04/national-championships-preview-part-2.html" target="_blank">Semifinal #2</a><br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/04/national-championship-preview-part-3.html" target="_blank">Super Six</a><br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/04/national-championship-preview-part-4-do.html" target="_blank">Individual titles</a><br />
<br />
Semifinal #1, projected lineups and regional scores<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dFq5RxDvyow/Vw_VpawcveI/AAAAAAAABSw/BYJDnlUuNpM3tkOxriZobAEcJKQtouPugCK4B/s1600/semi1.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dFq5RxDvyow/Vw_VpawcveI/AAAAAAAABSw/BYJDnlUuNpM3tkOxriZobAEcJKQtouPugCK4B/s400/semi1.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Semifinal #2, projected lineups and regional scores<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OwRO5Fs4dLU/Vw_VwAghu8I/AAAAAAAABS4/Ryc7OCO4FJExo1a6Zyw35k4jV4OfOzanwCK4B/s1600/semi2.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OwRO5Fs4dLU/Vw_VwAghu8I/AAAAAAAABS4/Ryc7OCO4FJExo1a6Zyw35k4jV4OfOzanwCK4B/s400/semi2.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
A few little nuggets of news have also been rattling around this week, significantly that Lindsay Mable scored the upset of the century by beating Bridget Sloan for the AAI Award, news that has been communicated in exactly zero places. Great job once again, college gymnastics. Seriously, there's not even an article on Minnesota's website about it. Anyway, it's kind of a big deal. I'm assuming some strategic voting was in place here that gave it to Mable instead of Sloan, enough people thinking that everyone was going to vote for Sloan, so they decided to throw votes at the underdog pick. Or people thinking that Sloan had already won everything and life, so why not go a different direction? Sloan got Streeped here, I think. <br />
<br />
Yesterday also began the spring NLI signing period, which has become the annual Stanford and UCLA former elite announcement day. Stanford signed rare Canadian gem Aleeza Yu, who will fit right in because she's already in a knee brace. Welcome to the team! UCLA announced the signing of Felicia Hano to join the giant bangarang class for next year that will cover everything in sheets of gold and fix all the problems, including Kyla Ross, Madison Kocian, Anna Glenn, Grace Glenn, Schmuel Glenn, Curly Glenn, and Zeppo Glenn. Nica Hults was also supposed to sign for next season but is currently nowhere to be found. If you're thinking that's a lot of people, it is. Even without Hults, my current count of UCLA gymnasts for next year who at least were on scholarship at some point is Cipra, Gerber, Glenn, Glenn, Hall, Hano, Kocian, Lee, Metcalf, Mossett, Ohashi, Preston, Ross, and Toronjo. That's 14 people, so who wants to play a rousing game of Which of You Aren't on Scholarship Anymore? <br />
<br />
Also, can Hano maybe vault tomorrow? That's probably allowed, right?<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-66898104267844284072016-04-13T16:37:00.000-07:002016-04-13T16:37:21.143-07:00National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)Individuals are the worst. <br />
<br />
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs. <br />
<br />
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym. <br />
<br />
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career? <br />
<br />
<b>Individual Events</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5q_ad6X7niQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites. <br />
<br />
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.<br />
<br />
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9DkFwkofmYM/Vw6MBNyLQYI/AAAAAAAABSE/CRxsB-IJNPsAHHnOBQr7mfw4uw0TQIkkgCLcB/s1600/Elaine1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9DkFwkofmYM/Vw6MBNyLQYI/AAAAAAAABSE/CRxsB-IJNPsAHHnOBQr7mfw4uw0TQIkkgCLcB/s1600/Elaine1.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed. <br />
<br />
<b>All-around</b><br />
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.<br />
<br />
<i>Bridget Sloan – Florida</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LODbr6Ol8hI" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.630<br />
High: 39.775<br />
<br />
Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her? <br />
<br />
<i>Elizabeth Price – Stanford</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NgnxtmBQvdw" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.570<br />
High: 39.675<br />
<br />
If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<i>Chayse Capps – Oklahoma</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zH0zHJDtSbk" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.625<br />
High: 39.775<br />
<br />
Where has this little AAer come from? Until about 30 seconds ago, Capps was among the many wonderful three-event gymnasts in NCAA, but she got barsified in the preseason to become one of the nation's top-scoring all-arounders. We know the beam score is going to be brilliant, though with earlier-lineup positions on the majority of events, it may be more challenging for her to get the 9.950s it takes to win an AA title. Capps looks like she'll need some tiny errors from Sloan and Price to be in with a shot, but did we think she would even be in this position a couple months ago? <br />
<br />
<i>Caitlin Atkinson – Auburn</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9Kh7PuN3e04" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.570<br />
High: 39.725<br />
<br />
Atkinson is another who does not have a weak event and is capable of 9.9s across the board, particularly with her 1.5 on vault and what's as close as you'll see to an auto-stick of a bars dismount. Unlike Capps, Atkinson anchors every rotation for Auburn, so the team's entire scoring effort funnels right toward her, which certainly helps her chances if the semifinal is a big day for Auburn. It's just a matter of landings. <br />
<br />
<i>Lindsay Mable – Minnesota</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UPcpwtB40_g" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.520<br />
High: 39.650<br />
<br />
Another senior looking to manufacture something brilliant in her final opportunity, Mable has the clean execution across all events and should be very competitive with everyone on beam and floor for scores in the 9.9s. The questions for Mable are her full on vault, which is lovely but just a full, and her bars routine that can often turn into a 9.8. If Minnesota is out of it early, will she have the team scores to lift her? <br />
<br />
<i>Kennedy Baker – Florida</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OBLweIuQZq4" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.585<br />
High: 39.650<br />
<br />
Sloan is Florida's most likely winner, but Baker has the big difficulty vault and floor routines that could put her ahead of Sloan/everybody, which is what happened when she became SEC all-around champion. The biggest factor sending Baker down the depth chart of AA contenders is her first position placement on bars and beam, making it less likely that she can get into the 39.7s. She'll need the scores to be kept down so that a 39.6 can win the title. Post-Sloan, Baker will be one of the very top favorites in the all-around. <br />
<br />
<i>Alex McMurtry – Florida</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/P5ongIn2308" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: N/A<br />
High: 39.625<br />
<br />
I almost forgot about McMurtry because I was skimming through the RQS standings to make sure I hadn't missed anyone, and she doesn't have an RQS. If McMurtry is competing on floor (which she did not do at regionals, so asterisk here), she has a very compelling argument given that her vault is regularly 9.900 even without a stick and her bars is...well-documented already. Her best event this year, however, has been beam, where she has become the team's 9.9 rock. She'd have to be on fire returning to the floor lineup to actually win the title here, but I can see a lot of 9.9s falling McMurtry's way. <br />
<br />
These are the most likely winners but by no means the extent of the options. Under normal circumstances, they would be joined in this category by Nina McGee and Nicole Artz, both of whom are also capable of 39.7s in the AA but will be competing without a team here. <br />
<br />
<b>Time to Get Your Jenny Hansen On</b><br />
It's so much harder to make noise at nationals as an individual, but McGee and Artz will have to channel their inner Jenny Hansen, who won three consecutive AA titles competing as an individual, to snatch the scores they're quite capable of earning. <br />
<br />
<i>Nina McGee – Denver</i><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yoUsibhR1QQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.575<br />
High: 39.775<br />
<br />
We all know about McGee's floor, but her 9.9s on bars have been an overlooked contributor to her AA success this year. The question for McGee is beam, which can sit in the lower 9.8s and was down to 9.700 at regionals. That's not a score that can win an all-around title, so we'll have to wait to see how McGee endures beam in rotation three to judge if she's in it to win. <br />
<br />
<i>Nicole Artz – Michigan</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.500<br />
High: 39.725<br />
<br />
Artz has the pedigree to win an AA title, though given the injuries she has been working through lately and competing without a team, it seems everything is against her. Still, she's in the conversation because bars, beam, and floor can all realistically go 9.950. The issue for Artz is vault, which has never been a real strength and can stick around 9.750-9.800 too often, which would take her out of the hunt.<br />
<br />
<b>Upset Nation</b><br />
<br />
<i>Keeley Kmieciak – Oklahoma</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.485<br />
High: 39.625<br />
<br />
It's easy to overlook Kmieciak because she doesn't have the <i>big big biggest </i>routine for Oklahoma on any of the events, but she's just so solid. She's the one who got a 10 on bars this year and is usually good for a stick on vault. Floor is often in the 9.8s and, like Baker, she doesn't have the lineup placement on several events to get a gigantic number. With a hit meet for everyone, she's not going to challenge Sloan and Price, but she could totally Kim Jacob this thing. <br />
<br />
<i>Myia Hambrick – LSU</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.500<br />
High: 39.625<br />
<br />
Hambrick is not supposed to be LSU's star. She's supposed to be a supporting player, but she's the team's only AAer and has emerged as a scoring star on each event in spite of her early-lineup positions. She has been scoring into the 9.9s on bars, beam, and floor from the second position with exceptionally well-executed and stylish gymnastics, but does she have the solidity and ironclad performances to beat everyone else from the second position at nationals? <br />
<br />
<i>Breanna Hughes - Utah</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.540<br />
High: 39.650<br />
<br />
Hughes went from competing one OK event to being an all-around star in about a millisecond, and she's ranked right up with the top players in the AA now. She has made improvements to her 1.5 on vault and her pirouette finishing positions on bars to turn herself into a much more competitive scorer across a whole meet, and she does have the lineup positions to spur her forward. Beam is unlikely to be a huge score, but I could see a very competitive AA total overall. <br />
<br />
<i>Alicia Boren – Florida</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.500<br />
High: 39.600<br />
<br />
We've all been excited about seeing Boren's vault and floor routines in NCAA for years, and she has not disappointed. Those events will be strong scores, but her challenge in an individual race will be getting equivalent numbers on bars and beam. It can certainly happen if Florida is having a big day, but you'd have to think that if Florida is having a big day, then at least one of Sloan, Baker, and McMurtry will be finishing ahead of Boren. <br />
<br />
<i>Brandie Jay – Georgia</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.515<br />
High: 39.675<br />
<br />
Brandie Jay in the all-around. It happened. Vault and floor have always been there and continue to be, though with more reliable composition and improved control on her full out to make floor a consistently useful score. She has also shown enough stickitude on that DLO 1/1 on bars lately that it doesn't become a hobgoblin to her total. The big deal, of course, is beam, where she has gone from being "eek, Brandie Jay's beam" to the team's most reliable worker. Her routine is still often in the 9.7s, which would take her out of the AA race and is the primary reason she's down the list as low as this, but with a hit she'll be somewhere in the mix.<br />
<br />
<i>Hollie Blanske – Nebraska</i><br />
<br />
RQS: 39.420<br />
High: 39.600<br />
<br />
So as not to commit the sin of overlooking Nebraska as we all so often do because we rarely get to see those meets and have little idea what Nebraska is even doing, Blanske is a legitimate threat for a 9.9 on every event. She has the 1.5 on vault and the biggest floor routine on the team to anchor that lineup, though she's more likely to have a few 9.850s thrown in there which take her out of the range of the very top AA scores. <br />
<br />
I'll also use this opportunity to mention Brittany Rogers, who hasn't been doing floor lately when the whole team is intact, but she stepped in for Snead at regionals. So, if she's doing the AA again and has somehow survived this whirlwind gymnastics tour of hers, she's another possible 39.6er waiting in the wings. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-86391126668727997652016-04-12T18:06:00.002-07:002016-04-12T18:06:49.810-07:00National Championship Preview Part 3: You're All Super to Me, Except for Five of You Without knowing how the semifinals will play out, previewing Super Six is like looking for shadows in a blindfold factory. Still, performances so far this season have provided a pretty good indication of which teams are in serious contention to win the title and which teams are simply looking to make Super Six/snatch a respectable finish if one of the top teams falters. Surprise, surprise, the four most likely title contenders are also the four top-ranked teams.<br />
<br />
Those rankings exist for a reason. The ultimate champion has not come from outside the top three since the beginning of the Georgia dynasty in 2005, when Georgia entered the postseason in 5th, and for each of the last three seasons, the regular-season top three has also finished Super Six in the top three places. So while a weird upset or two in the semifinals could help the chances for a cusp team like Utah to get into the rarefied territory of podium-land, the four teams that should be challenging for the title of Superest of the Super Six, because you're all just super, are Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. The only other team that spent any time in the top three this season was Michigan, and that ship has sailed. <br />
<br />
A rotation-by-rotation team comparison as to the pace they'll need to set won't be possible until we have the rotation order, although this is the draw for Super Six for quick reference once we know how the semifinals finish. <br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_UyhBBTbc3E/VwwYjKnlMtI/AAAAAAAABRg/3AB41HYPUIQvp3bZJzeswYWJaigJy60mw/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2016-04-11%2Bat%2B2.34.25%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_UyhBBTbc3E/VwwYjKnlMtI/AAAAAAAABRg/3AB41HYPUIQvp3bZJzeswYWJaigJy60mw/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2016-04-11%2Bat%2B2.34.25%2BPM.png" /></a><br />
<br />
The winner of the second semi gets Olympic order, and the winner of the first semi gets to start on beam. Fun. The third-place teams are the ones who will end on byes, as by design. <br />
<br />
Of course, to win Super Six, you have to be good on all the things, but rather than just go through the teams and say, "It would be nice if Florida got a good score on bars, and also beam, and floor, and vault. That would make it easier to win" (duh), I've assigned each of these four teams a critical event, not necessarily a "must-win" event because that's hyperbolic (and I never, ever, ever<i> </i>write hyperbolically), but one that should be a massive strength, can't be a massive weakness, or is generally the best indicator for that team as to whether a title chase is really on.<br />
<br />
<b>Vault – LSU</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/di7rlSVE6DE" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
LSU's ability on vault and concerted use of Gnat Power has made the Tigers the only non-Oklahoma team to occupy the top spot on any event to end the season. If circumstances play out the way they have during the regular season, vault appears to be the juiciest opportunity for the other teams to strike a blow to the Sooners since Oklahoma's RQS is just a pitiful 49.415 here. (Like, are you even trying?) LSU is the best poised to do that.<br />
<br />
Difficulty has become the watchword on vault this year, though it has not exclusively dictated success. Among these four teams, Alabama shows the most 10.0 SVs with three 1.5s and an Omelianchik but is ranked the lowest of the four, while LSU and Oklahoma each show three 10.0 SVs and Florida shows two. In spite of performing the least difficulty in the group, Florida is ranked second on vault, largely by virtue of having the two best fulls in NCAA as well, but LSU has displayed the best balance of difficulty and stickitude to make this event the place where the Tigers can shake off underdog status and and put pressure on the more-favored teams with a 49.5. <br />
<br />
The most significant contributor to LSU's vault success this season has, of course, been Gnat's DTY, which has spent most of the season in automatic 9.950 for a hop/10 for a stick, Zamarripa territory. It has been judged in an entirely different galaxy from Price's DTY, so one of the more interesting aspects of semifinal day will be seeing how Gnat's and Price's DTYs are evaluated by the same panel of judges in the same session of the same meet for the first time (Price wasn't yet performing the DTY when the two teams met earlier this season at Metroplex). Stanford vaults in rotation five of the semifinal, and LSU vaults in rotation six. The judges will not be able to justify evaluating them with different lenses, so does Gnat's score come down to what Price's has been, or does Price's score go to up what Gnat's has been?<br />
<br />
LSU need the latter to be true in this meet and relies on that gigantic number for Gnat's DTY to get the vault advantage over the other teams. Another significant factor in LSU's vault score is Savona, who has returned from injury to perform her 1.5 again, though the landing control has not been there so far and her score has been dropped a few times. With one sometimes-9.750y vault in the lineup from Finnegan/Cannamela/Macadaeg, LSU can't afford to be forced to drop Savona's score in a Super Six context.<br />
<br />
Who's lunging on a 1.5 for 9.850? That's the major question for all of these teams on vault because we've seen nearly everyone who has upgraded to a 1.5 in NCAA this year have moments of bounding forward out of it and making the team drop her critical score. The landing control for Jackson and Scaman accounts for the variation in Oklahoma's vault results and has created this opening for other teams that wouldn't necessarily have been there last year, as does Alabama's reliance on Beers' 1.5 in particular. She basically decides if the vault score is going to be competitive. Florida has the safety net of the Sloan and McMurtry fulls which can still get 9.900 and show less unpredictability in landing, but it's the Boren and Baker 1.5s that dictate whether it's a good vaulting day or a title-winning vaulting day.<br />
<br />
Every time one of these teams throws up a 1.5, there is a legitimate one-tenth swing in the scores hanging on that landing, which is a dramatic margin in Super Six. These vaults I mentioned are going to be a real treat for us in Super Six because every stick is a gold star and every shoulder-width lunge is a kick in the stomach to title hopes. You can't get 9.850 on a critical, late-lineup vault in Super Six and expect to win. I anticipate a lot of "should she really have been doing a 1.5?" second-guessing once the results of Super Six are in. I anticipate it mostly because I will 100% be doing it. <br />
<br />
<b>Bars – Florida</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/asSe5nfZ_Co" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
This was supposed to be Florida's year to dominate bars, with 5/6 of last year's lineup intact including three near-guaranteed 9.9s, while Utah lost Dabritz and Oklahoma had to reconstruct its depleted bars lineup using nothing but kindling and double-sided tape. Florida has been extremely strong on bars this season but has not been the very best team. That title goes to Oklahoma for superior handstands and stick frequency. I was concerned about Oklahoma's bars this year because of what seemed like a dearth of options, but it's a sign of a top bars school that they have been able to take "don't even look at the bars" routines from Capps and Jackson and turn them into suddenly serious scores this year, much as Florida was able to do with McMurtry last year. For all of the light-speed eye-rolling we do about McMurtry's scores, her pre-Florida bars work was never-making-a-lineup-ever level. <br />
<br />
Still, Florida shouldn't be letting this happen. If you were to offer me Sloan, Caquatto, McMurtry, BDG, Boren, and Baker against Wofford, Kmieciak, Scaman, Capps, Lehrmann, and Jackson, I'm taking Florida's group every time. That should be the NCAA's best bars team, and while second place is not a slouch position and 49.4s are not slouch scores, that becomes less true when you're trying to win Super Six. Second is no longer good enough. Florida currently doesn't have a first-place ranking on any apparatus, but bars is a mighty opportunity to win an event given the talent of this lineup.<br />
<br />
It's little things that have brought Florida "down" on bars lately. Sloan's DLO used to be an auto-stick, and it isn't right now. Also, sometimes the judges say, "Stay with me on this one, but maybe McMurtry's bars routine isn't perfect..." Plus, Baker, Boren, and BDG can get a little 9.850 with their dismounts, especially because it's so hard to take only a .05 step on a double front like Baker's. Usually it's either a stick or a bound for a tenth. Baker possesses a great talent for minimizing her hops, planting so quickly that even though it seems like she's starting to bounce a million miles, she suddenly stops much closer to her landing position than it seemed like she would be, forcing the judges to make a decision about how significant her lack of control really was. Still, her score can go down to 9.800-9.850 depending on the dismount in a snap, and Florida can't tolerate any of these little issues when trying to beat Oklahoma on bars. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Or Alabama for that matter. Florida's story on bars this season continued at SECs when the Gators recorded a very strong bars score 49.500, but it still wasn't good enough because Alabama scored a 49.550 and almost snatched the meet out of Florida's hands because of it. A result of Alabama's...lineup developments this season, the Tide rank below the other top teams in most categories and will have to either equal or outpace RQS on every event to have a realistic shot, but we've seen Alabama use Winston/Bailey/Brannan to go crazy-pants on bars multiple times this season. Conversely, LSU looks to be more on the minimizing-a-deficit side of the spectrum when it comes to bars, showing a couple 9.9s but also a couple routines that will go closer to 9.800 than 9.900, making it less about winning the event and more about getting through cleanly and evenly, keeping pace well enough to let vault and floor do the talking. For that reason, in ranking the most decisive, pivotal routines in this competition, Sarah Finnegan's bars is very high on the list. LSU needs that score from her. <br />
<br />
<b>Beam – Alabama</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IeWXZwpp6ts" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Aja Sims. Kiana Winston. Nickie Guerrero. Keely McNeer. Dana Duckworth's regal chin lift. With all those assets, it's fair to wonder why Alabama isn't ranked #1 by a thousand miles on beam. Part of the answer is that this is a very, very lovely year for beam in NCAA. Not necessarily a consistent or reassuring one, but when it's a disaster, at least it's a good old beautiful disaster. Lots of teams have very refined and precise beam work, and we have not been afflicted with the 135-degree split demon that more-than-occasionally makes its presence known in most years. Alabama has been good, but not the best. Still, looking at these four teams, Alabama should be able to match up with any of them on beam and must do so to make up the current scoring disparity that has seen Alabama peak in the 197.7s while LSU has gone up to 197.9s and Florida and Oklahoma have reached the 198s. <br />
<br />
It was a 49.275 beam (well below potential) that most hurt Alabama's chances to steal an SEC title, and there's no room for dismounts with that many non-stuck landings at nationals. Alabama does have a tendency toward hopping around. Aja Sims is 4th in the country on beam but would be level with Capps and Francis if she weren't dismounting with a double back, a vicious little thing to stick that can easily take her score out of the rarefied 9.950s. That commitment to difficulty is commendable, but it means that Alabama can't always rely on Sims for a hugely huge number. This puts more onus to stick on the rest of the lineup dismounting with those 1.5s because...it's a 1.5. It's not even a double back, so stick.<br />
<br />
Bailey and Beers do appear to be out of the lineup for consistency reasons, and while Alabama can withstand that because of the nation-best depth we've been living through all year, that's a tough one. Those are two quite realistic 9.9s sitting on the bench, so by not taking the risk to throw them into the lineup and hope for the best, is Alabama compromising its scoring potential and bringing it farther out of championship-winning range? Or are the replacement routines really equivalent scores? <br />
<br />
LSU, for that matter, also should be better on beam than we've seen so far this year. DD said at the beginning of the season that beam should be LSU's best event, and I agree. It should be. Finnegan, Macadaeg, Hambrick, Gnat? Don't even speak about it. That's an insanely rare and glorious collection of specimens, and yet Alabama and LSU are the two lower-ranked beam teams among these four. <br />
<br />
By boasting so many strong beam options, LSU has had the luxury of burying Macadaeg and Hambrick at the beginning of the lineup because there's still Finnegan and Gnat to take advantage of end-of-lineup scores and because Macadaeg's work is remarkable enough that it can get bigger scores even in the first position. Usually. Macadaeg has three 9.925s and three 9.875s from the leadoff spot this year. But, what about the wobbles? What about the tentativeness? Will it catch up to LSU at nationals? And is putting such impressive beam workers in the first two spots also compromising the scoring potential, even by just a tiny yet critical hair's breadth? <br />
<br />
The 49.5s are hard to come by on beam, but not impossible, and many teams here have the skills to do it. Oklahoma continues being Oklahoma on beam in spite of another lineup reinvention to bring in a somewhat unproven cast of characters, but beam shouldn't necessarily be conceded to Oklahoma outright. The others have the capability to equal or pass those scores. For Alabama, giving away two tenths on beam will not stand for the quality of this lineup or the quality of title chances. <br />
<br />
<b>Floor – Oklahoma</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ASEQ-gzfetc" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Oklahoma's floor strategy has worked so far this year. This is not a high-difficulty floor lineup, featuring three double pike mounts, one front double full, and Ali Jackson spending the season on Achilles Watch 2016 and doing a rudi before spending the rest of her air time taking a nap. Scaman still brings the Big E with her DLO, but primarily Oklahoma is relying on going clean and the idea that the judges will apply the rules correctly and treat all 10.0 SVs equally rather than saving scores for the bam-bam-bam DLO queens. Before Oklahoma really became <i>Oklahoma</i> and won a title, there was a concern that the lower-difficulty floor routines were being held down especially in the postseason because they were not as "big" as those of other teams (take that to mean difficulty, or amplitude, or whatever you like).<br />
<br />
That hasn't happened this year with similar-difficulty routines, whether because Oklahoma is more of a name brand now, because floor evaluation in general has loosened considerably since 2011-2012, or because it wasn't even much of a thing in the first place. A little from all the columns? Perhaps. Oklahoma is concertedly keeping the difficulty down on the landings, and not just for Jackson but also for someone like Capps, who can do a DLO, but it's a much riskier proposition than the double pike, which still gets her a 10.0 start, is way more convenient, and has been scoring just fine. A number of the big teams are going this lower-difficulty route this season, whether by necessity or by strategy, and it's working out. None of Oklahoma, Utah, or UCLA show very many E passes, even though the capability for more exists, and they've all hit 49.6 this season. Cipra is in the same boat of having a full-in in her pocket but also no incentive for the greater injury/landing-deduction risk of an E pass when she can get 9.950s for a double pike routine.<br />
<br />
It has payed off for Oklahoma to this point, but those scores will have to continue through to Super Six for it to matter. The judges must be willing to throw out scores greater than 9.900 for a clean mid-lineup double pike if Oklahoma is to snatch the massive floor number that the SEC schools will expect for their DLOs, full-ins, Dos Santosi, and double arabians. Winning the second semifinal would put Oklahoma on Olympic order, ending the meet on floor, which can only help. <br />
<br />
If we contrast Oklahoma's difficulty to the difficulty of the SEC schools, LSU and Alabama have the capability for six E-pass routines (three DLOs, two full-ins, and a front double full for LSU; three DLOs and three double arabians for Alabama), while Florida shows a few more D-peak routines in addition to Baker's, Boren's, and sometimes McMurtry's (which is partially why floor has been the biggest Gator concern this year), but then there's also Sloan. These teams wouldn't mind a little bit of E-pass love in the slightest. That shouldn't happen because a 10.0 SV is a 10.0 SV, but we'll see. <br />
<br />
Floor scores have continued to be rather insane this year, so this seems like a good time to bring back the graph.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zsZCvytuyr0/Vw2MyOtA-8I/AAAAAAAABRw/WunJZP3iFRo_fR7llrpT22B0Ozij2DpUQCK4B/s1600/FloorRQS.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zsZCvytuyr0/Vw2MyOtA-8I/AAAAAAAABRw/WunJZP3iFRo_fR7llrpT22B0Ozij2DpUQCK4B/s640/FloorRQS.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
We're closing in on an average top-team floor RQS two tenths higher than it was in 2011, and it's not like the floor workers are any better now than they were in 2011. The scores are simply looser and considerably higher than they are on any other event. I fully expect to see a flurry of 49.5s on floor at nationals this year, so teams cannot afford to let that scoring opportunity slip away, even with a 49.3. There's too much to be gained on floor, and because of that, it becomes the most important event to be good at. It's how Florida won last year (49.650 to Utah's 49.425), and it's how Oklahoma fell out of Super Six because the OOBs from Dowell and Jackson meant the Sooners could not take advantage of the sea of gold pieces ready to be showered upon them on floor. <br />
<br />
Oklahoma has been the best team this season, basically since week 3, and should come into nationals expecting to win, but cannot let the opportunity for floor scores pass by again. The others are too ready to pounce and the margin between them is too small. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-34670747891817358542016-04-11T12:11:00.001-07:002016-04-11T12:11:39.478-07:00National Championships Preview Part 2: Deja Vu in Spoilertown Every year. Every year it's the same. One semifinal looks like it's going to be close and exciting and weird and controversial, and the other looks like a straightforward stroll through the local meadow in a world made only of springtime. Except, it never really works out that way. Take last year's second semifinal, when Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama squared off against Auburn, Nebraska, and Oregon State. "Ah ha ha," we said. "Bring me another glass of port. Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama will surely advance." <br />
<br />
Nope. The infamous freshman-lost-her-mind heard 'round the world saw Auburn qualify instead of LSU. Nebraska managed to produce a similar complication the year before, against many of the same teams we see gathered this year. Almost all of them. I know. The straightforward semifinal tends to have a way of getting our attention, so how confident do we feel that Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah will emerge from this session? What tricks do the Bruins have planned for us? Whom will they exhume to perform a surprise routine this time?<br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[1] Oklahoma (bye before floor)<br />
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)<br />
[5] Utah (vault)<br />
[8] UCLA (bars)<br />
[10] Cal (beam)<br />
[12] Nebraska (floor)<br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>All-around </i>– Maddie Gardiner, Oregon State; Nina McGee, Denver; Amanda Wellick, Arkansas; Brianna Brown, Michigan; Mollie Drenth, Iowa; Lisa Burt, Michigan State<br />
<br />
<i>Vault</i> – Taylor Allex, Arizona State<br />
<i>Beam</i> – Risa Perez, Oregon State; Shani Remme, Boise State<br />
<i>Floor</i> – Lizzy Leduc, Illinois; Rachel Slocum, Eastern Michigan<br />
<br />
Though three clear favorites have established themselves in this group, it's not quite as meadow-like as some of the "easy" semifinals have been in past years. Alabama and Utah did not perform overwhelmingly at regionals, and UCLA absolutely possesses the talent to advance on a good day. Something I hadn't realized until now: Since the advent of Super Six, UCLA has <i>never</i> gone three straight seasons without qualifying. Having missed out on Super Six the last two years, the Bruins are in line to make an unfortunate piece of history if they don't secure the upset this time around. #saveuskyla<br />
<br />
Let's get to it.<br />
<br />
<b>OKLAHOMA</b><br />
The Sooners have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the teams in recent weeks, not showing the same variations in performance, blips, and inconsistencies of the other top contenders. Oklahoma's regionals score was the highest in the country by a pretty solid margin and the performance was by far the cleanest.<br />
<br />
Oklahoma must be the title favorite at this point but far from a prohibitive one. Several areas have emerged, from security of vault landings to floor difficulty, that may be cause for concern in a Super Six context when needing to defeat the likes of Florida, but for now, Oklahoma is the safest pick. If the Sooners were to lose it at the semifinal stage, it would be the biggest upset of any of the teams. Oklahoma hasn't had a single<i> </i>fall in a competition routine since <i>February 7th</i> and hasn't seen two actual falls in the same rotation all season long. That's a rather remarkable feat, so while we can question some of the details, Oklahoma would have to count a fall to fail to emerge from this semifinal. And that would be a first. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GAvkRHAy3ko" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
I'll go into detail in the Super Six preview, but a critical area I'll be watching in the semifinal is how those early-lineup floor routines are evaluated, especially with the Sooners starting on that event. At regionals, Brown and Capps pretty much nailed their routines and got 9.850s (and Jones performed somewhat near her normal for a 9.800), but Oklahoma is going to need higher scores for those routines to reach a national-championship-winning total. The last four winners (counting Florida and Oklahoma in 2014 as two different winners) have all scored over 49.6 on floor in Super Six. Given the evaluation of floor this season, I imagine that will be the standard once again.<br />
<br />
<b>ALABAMA and UTAH</b><br />
Alabama and Utah were twinsies on regionals day, each scoring 197.125 at a home regional. Alabama had some flopsy moments on beam and got hit by the bars landings monster, while Utah was sort of fine across the board but will need better vault and floor landings come nationals. Both exposed patches of minor concern and showed just four 9.9s (all of Alabama's coming on floor), which isn't enough for championships to be sure about fending off other 197-capable teams. <br />
<br />
Bars landings. When both these teams have recorded significant results this season, they have done so by sticking bars dismounts. Alabama broke 49.5 on bars both during the landslide against Georgia and at SECs, as did Utah during its own win against Georgia for a season high 197.675. Aside from floor (for floor reasons), bars should be the next-highest score for both teams. Alabama has proven 9.950-for-sticks from Winston and Brannan, but also has those high-risk dismounts from Beers and Jetter that we've all seen dancing with the devil from time to time. The Tide cannot afford 9.800 for those routines at nationals. Bars is too important. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ljl_MvBDngE" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
A big bars score is especially significant for all the top seeds because the most likely challenger is UCLA, and UCLA's bars rotation usually hovers somewhere between "well..." and "ack." Alabama and Utah will both look to rack up a significant edge solely because of bars so that if UCLA does end up having one of those great beam and floor days to get up into the 197s, there's still a buffer.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Alabama should be able to beat both Utah and UCLA by virtue of vault, a rotation that boasts four 10.0 SVs compared to UCLA's two and Utah's one. That's quite a valuable edge but one that hasn't always come to fruition. The same can actually be said of other events. Alabama should be among the best on all of them. That beam lineup is lovely and has the talent to score with Oklahoma and UCLA (this is the pretty-beam semifinal, following the hellish-beam semifinal), and the Alabama team possesses far superior floor difficulty and, more importantly, amplitude compared to the other teams in this session. For the other schools, we're seeing one and two E passes, but Alabama's best floor lineup would have six E passes.<br />
<br />
These are the reasons why, through much of the preseason, I had Alabama as the favorite to win the championship this year. That changed as the season went on, but the potential, talent, and depth all absolutely exist. They simply have not manifested on very many occasions this season. During the regular season, that could be forgiven because of all the lineup variations and depth exploration, but no longer. Alabama is the second-best team in this session and shouldn't really accept finishing lower than second. <br />
<br />
Utah lost the season series to UCLA 1-2, but Utah is a safer choice for Super Six largely due to less reliance on THE BIG NUMBER. For instance, Maddy Stover is the best beam worker on the team, but if she doesn't get a 9.900, it's not the end of the world because there should be solid-enough scores coming from each of the other events. They can make it up with 9.850s everywhere. That's what happened at regionals. If, however, Danusia doesn't get a 9.950 on beam, then we start to worry because there aren't as many places that UCLA can make up that lost score. At regionals, even before the bars terror, Utah had pulled away from UCLA because the Bruins didn't get all their star scores. <br />
<br />
The Utes have the fortune of drawing Olympic order, which should always be a comfortable setup and will allow them to finish on final-rotation floor while both UCLA and Nebraska, the presumed next-closest challengers, are on byes.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J5Kc3ykx43E" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
We know the way scores go at the end of meets, so that rotation order should be a significant check mark in Utah's column and a significant frowny face in the column of making this meet exciting. If it actually comes down to Utah/UCLA/Nebraska in a fight to the finish just like in the semifinals two years ago when they all ended within a tenth of each other, then we don't want two of those three teams on a bye when the meet is decided.<br />
<br />
Because Utah's last event is floor while Alabama and UCLA's is vault and Nebraska's is beam, Utah does not need to be driving the bus the whole way. There will be room to gain some ground at the end, while the others will look to have established some kind of early margin, particularly UCLA and Nebraska who will not expect to gain much ground on their final events. <br />
<br />
<b>Spoilertown, UCLA</b><br />
The Bruins remain serious and significant challengers to qualify here, largely because they won't necessarily have to rely on a mistake to do it. If everyone hits, UCLA could still end up in the top three. We've seen UCLA beat Utah in a hit meet earlier in the year, but it will take a peak meet to do that again now. The Bruins will not be able to check and step for 9.825s like at regionals and stay anywhere in contention. <br />
<br />
Of course, beam and floor. Those have been UCLA's best events from the first meet and they continue to be. UCLA will go to beam in the second rotation and floor in the fourth, and we should look for 49.400 on both events. The situation is not quite as urgent as Stanford's need on bars and beam in the other semifinal, but it's close. A 49.400 on each should be pretty attainable. I would contend that the beam lineup is the best in this whole session (gasp, ahead of Oklahoma's you say?), and those floor routines have been rewarded all year. Even when they give me the chest-position frowns, the landing security has been a much-improved asset this season. Bynum's DLO is completely under control now and Francis has far fewer bouncy days. The question is whether DeJesus is in the floor mix anymore. She didn't even train it at regionals, but a famous-routine 9.925 would make it so much easier to blast through the 49.400 barrier and beat Utah on floor. Based on what we've seen this season, it's unlikely that UCLA would beat Utah on vault and bars, so the Bruins look to need an edge on both beam and floor to beat a hit from Utah. <br />
<br />
So...bars. Let's talk about that. It wasn't so much with the good at regionals with mistakes from Meraz and Savvidou nearly spoiling the whole day, but then again, Peng. She returned with full difficulty and a stick for 9.950, replacing what is usually a 9.775 from Metcalf. That's a gigantic lift to this bars lineup at the last moment, the kind of secret-weapon routine that could elevate UCLA out of 4th place and eliminate a deficit on a perceived weakness.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CeEElKharKE" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
But of course, it would still require everyone hitting. Sonya. Stella. If UCLA can use Peng's score to get 49.3 on bars, a qualification-level lowish-middish 197 seems much more attainable and some of that pressure is taken off those starring routines on beam and floor.<br />
<br />
<b>Spoilertown, NEBRASKA?</b><br />
If you're not having flashbacks to the semifinal two years ago, when Utah came in as the #3 seed, UCLA came in as the #4 seed, and Nebraska came in as the #5 seed, then you probably don't remember it. The scenario was eerily identical to the one we see before us, when the meet was largely expected to be a showdown between Utah and UCLA for that last spot with Nebraska as the relatively ignored contender on the lower end of the standings. Then, Nebraska swooped in there with a huge, controversial beam score in the final rotation to leapfrog both of them. Nebraska finishes on beam once again. <br />
<br />
Nebraska enters this meet in a similar position, not expected to do as well as Utah or UCLA, not ranked in the top three in the session on any apparatus, but still peaking at the right moment and recording respectable numbers. With the four major all-arounders back in play and every significant contributor healthyish except Lambert, Nebraska has developed a modicum of consistency and a healthy crop of possible 9.9s over the last month. It will take some misses from the teams ranked above to get Nebraska into this thing, not necessary an implosion or huge counting-fall error, but the Huskers will need a couple teams to be off their game and bouncing around to pull off yet another surprise Super Six appearance, which is sort of their MO.<br />
<br />
<b>CALIFORNIA</b><br />
I haven't mentioned Cal until now, which is probably harsh, but like Minnesota in the other semifinal, Cal is the competitor least likely to advance and the one whose major accomplishment was making it to this point. I expected it would be another year or two before Cal could make nationals, but here we sit. Cal is now in the top tier of teams, the culmination of an amazing renovation of this program from the "we hate life and got a 191" team that it used to be. <br />
<br />
Cal endured regionals. It was not a great performance, the lowest qualifying score of the twelve teams here and a score that wouldn't normally be expected to advance, but it was enough. A lot will have to improve from that performance, though Cal has recorded some excellent scores and challenged the big names this season. Under normal circumstances, I would consider Cal on par with Nebraska as an upset challenger in this meet, but the Toni-Ann Williams situation pulls Cal's expectations down a little. For a team that needs to improve its scores after regionals, that task becomes a lot harder without its best gymnast. <br />
<br />
Williams will be attending the Test Event for Jamaica next weekend instead of heading to nationals, meaning that Cal will have to replace her scores on three events. Her 1.5 on vault has not been great lately and the score has been dropped in recent meets (I assume it would have been downgraded to a full if she didn't need to prep it for the test event...?), so the loss of her vault isn't as huge a deal as it might have seemed. Still, she's consistently one of the top scorers on bars and absolutely the team's top floor worker, and losing those numbers is the bigger blow. Charlie Owens can fill in for a couple of those routines, and Sylvie Seilnacht has done a floor routine or two already this year, but the team will be dropping a legitimate couple tenths in scoring potential without Williams. <br />
<br />
As a choice, I have no real issue with her deciding to go to the Test Event instead of nationals. If I were on the team, I would definitely be salty about it, but I'm not on the team, so...I'm fine. There wasn't really a right choice in this situation. Either way, she was going to be missing something important, and we know the lure of the dun-dun-dun Olympics is strong. Hence Brenna Dowell taking a year off from Oklahoma to put herself through this emotional wringer of pain and disappointment. <br />
<br />
There is the whole "you're on scholarship to do gymnastics for this team, not for Jamaica" argument, so it definitely helps that Justin and Toni-Ann <i>are </i>the Jamaican gymnastics program. No head coach conflict. It would be interesting to hear if other coaches would have allowed this. Would Valorie have let Danusia take this spot if available? Brittany Rogers has been completing elite all over the place this year getting ready for the Olympics, but if it had directly conflicted with nationals...? I'm not sure many other gymnasts would have been allowed to do this. <br />
<br />
Also, from a coldly pragmatic perspective, she has a better chance of making the Olympics than Cal has of making Super Six. It's not like Cal was going to win the championship and now can't because she's not there. The team's result is not going to be wildly different. Cal's victory this year was making nationals for the first time since 1992, and she helped to do that. If she had deferred the whole year like Brenna, would Cal even be going to nationals? <br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>THE PACE</b><br />
As with the last semifinal, this is what the event RQSs tell us should happen rotation-by-rotation, so we can see who's ahead of or behind the pace at various points. <br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 1: </b>Nebraska 49.260, Utah 49.255, UCLA 49.235, Cal 49.205, Oklahoma BYE, Alabama BYE<br />
My, what a closely bunched group! I think pretty much all the teams would take these scores after the first event. Nebraska starts on floor and must squeeze everything possible out of that cash cow because it becomes harder to get big numbers after that. (It will be easy to hold those Nebraska scores down in the unhelpful 9.825 range early in the meet, though, so watch for that.)<br />
<br />
By contrast, Utah starts on vault, a relatively low-scoring event for all the teams in this session (the top three vaulting teams are all in the first semifinal), so a 49.250 is very usable. UCLA is on bars and Cal on beam, and for both these teams, escaping with 49.2s would be a victory and a dramatic improvement over regionals. If the Bruins are even with or ahead of Utah after doing bars, then we've got a meet. <br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 2: </b>UCLA 98.560, Nebraska 98.365, Oklahoma 49.575, Alabama 49.405, Utah 49.255, Cal 49.205<br />
UCLA must have a lead here after competing on beam, and 98.560 is the absolute minimum UCLA will be looking for after two pieces. It's OK but unlikely to threaten Utah all that much.<br />
<br />
This semifinal looks more straightforward because the three top seeds have a significant RQS cushion over the three lower seeds, which must be made up somehow otherwise Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah will all be happy simply hitting somewhere close to their RQSs each step of the way. If UCLA gets the needed 49.400 on beam after a bars hit, this total should be higher and worthy of a close meet.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 3: </b>Oklahoma 98.990, Alabama 98.725, Utah 98.650, UCLA 98.560, Cal 98.500, Nebraska 98.365<br />
Going by RQS, Utah passes UCLA after two events, which is why UCLA would prefer a score into the 98.6s themselves after two events. If things do go relatively to plan for Cal, they'll be jockeying for position with Nebraska to see which team might play the upset monster, and since Cal opens on higher-scoring events and finishes on lower-scoring events, not being last at the halfway point is imperative. Within .150 of a top-three spot, like this indicates, would be even better.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 4: </b>UCLA 147.990, Utah 147.940, Cal 147.685, Nebraska 147.545, Oklahoma 98.990, Alabama 98.725<br />
Rotation 4 is when UCLA would have to make a move. On floor, directly against Utah on beam, this is the one point in the meet when UCLA really should outscore Utah and can pick up a couple tenths to take the lead. This margin, however, would not be good enough for the Bruins since Utah still gets to head to floor. If Cal and Nebraska are this far back after rotation 4, they're basically out of it because UCLA, Utah, and Alabama will all be done with the mistake events already. There will be very little opportunity for anyone to take advantage of an error once we hit this part of the meet, so any large deficits must already have been closed. <br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 5: </b>UCLA 197.170, Nebraska 196.800, Oklahoma 148.565, Alabama 148.170, Utah 147.940, Cal 147.685<br />
As I mentioned in the previous semifinal, the highest score ever to be eliminated at this stage if 197.025, so theoretically UCLA should feel comfortable about hitting this RQS total. Still, I wouldn't consider it safe among this group. By this point, Oklahoma should have pulled away from the rest to make its final beam rotation largely perfunctory, and Alabama and Utah will hope that things work out exactly like this so that their final task is just a hit rotation rather than something impressive. With the scores at this stage, UCLA would be forcing Utah to hit just a 49.250 on floor to move ahead, which is too attainable for the Utes. That's really just an average day for them.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 6:</b> Oklahoma 198.010, Alabama 197.525, Utah 197.425, UCLA 197.170, Cal 196.835, Nebraska 196.800<br />
The individual event RQSs have Oklahoma at a 198, which I wouldn't expect in a national semifinal context, though it is possible. Oklahoma will probably undershoot each of these RQS markers by a hair, but there's so much buffer that the Sooners can undershoot them and still maintain a comfortable advantage. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-33891083343316764422016-04-10T22:13:00.000-07:002016-04-10T22:13:15.870-07:00Important work...This needed its own post, right?<br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rl9f3Ow9D8Y/VwsyGZo_62I/AAAAAAAABRQ/cM3s9YeW33AH4EtqQPW4M-VokPZIOYj5w/s1600/BrittanyRogers.gif" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rl9f3Ow9D8Y/VwsyGZo_62I/AAAAAAAABRQ/cM3s9YeW33AH4EtqQPW4M-VokPZIOYj5w/s400/BrittanyRogers.gif" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Right. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-39402557254671858322016-04-09T19:00:00.000-07:002016-04-09T20:53:47.081-07:00Pacific Rim Live BlogBecause why not?<br />
<br />
In a weekend without NCAA gymnastics, we must find some way to occupy our time, so USAG has charitably provided the Pacific Rim Championship, the Pacific Northwest's most important geographically arbitrary biennial international gymnastics competition. It's kind of a big deal, you guys.<br />
<br />
It's the precursor to next week's Countries That Share a Border With Another Country That Has a Name Ending in Y Championship. Prestigious. Sorry, Brazil, I can't invite you because...I think you might border the Atlantic. <br />
<br />
It's also the chance for Simone Biles to square off against Canada, Australia, and a bunch of gymnasts who are dismounting bars with a Nastia flyaway and then go, "Oh, did I win?" Yes, Simone. You won.<br />
<br />
I love that Russia and China don't even bother sending women's teams anymore. For a while they would fake it by sending some C Teamers and Maria Kharenkova, but now they can't even bring themselves to throw a random junior at us. The Russians are far too busy fulfilling drug tests with a piece of notebook paper that says "NO MELDONIUM HERE." Done and done. <br />
<br />
Also, in case you thought the rules of this competition dictated that teams had to send three seniors and three juniors...nope. Not anymore. Because it was really important that the US send an impossibly strong team of seniors to make sure to win this competition by 78 points. Winning by 5 points would have been so embarrassing. What is the expression, taking a gun to a knife fight? The team the US has sent to this competition is like taking a gun to a sewing circle. Put away that gun, Louisa. <br />
<br />
To the gymnastics? Shall we? <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>They've "journeyed to Everett, Washington." Like they took the Oregon Trail.<br />
<br />
This national anthem is a little elementary school dodgeball tournament, isn't it? Oh, Sue.<br />
<br />
Macready's dream in life is to be the 24th member of Jay-Z's entourage.<br />
<br />
Our PA guy's pronunciation of Allana Slater like her name is Spanish is my new favorite thing. <br />
<br />
Tim has already given Simone five Olympic medals.<br />
I'm watching both the NBC nu-trio and Evan and Sam. But I'm probably going to listen to NBC only because it's way more fun to make fun of. Evan and Sam are...just enjoyable.<br />
<br />
"HIS LIGHT DIDN'T COME ON." <br />
<br />
We're already going Brenna time on floor. Almost goes OOB on her double front - nailed front double pike - "you're looking at a real veteran, Brenna Dowell." "You're looking at an old hag, Brenna Dowell."<br />
<br />
A couple slightly short landings and the big lunge out of the opening pass for Brenna. Otherwise solid enough. Oklahoma hasn't really missed a beat without her, but it's exciting to think about Dowell and Nichols adding themselves to the mix next year.<br />
<br />
Sam is not happy with Kuwajima's handstand speed.<br />
<br />
Ragan Smith on floor now -with her "Hi, I'm 11" Addam's family routine - just to let us know that she's a pixie. Short on DLO - large stumble, triple full is better. A little short on double arabian - secure landing on double pike, chest down. How very NCAA of her.<br />
<br />
Sam and Evan could not be less enthusiastic about having to pretend to know about trampoline. But they are totally making fun of the NBC trio, and I couldn't be happier. You go, guys. <br />
<br />
McGregor of NZL is heading to Boise State soon. We won't see her vault because Laurie Hernandez is up on floor. OK DLO, it's a little low and worrying, but she got it this time. Her second pass is a double arabian, near stuck, very strong - instead of a third pass, Miss Val actually just drops into the arena on a hot air balloon and steals her and takes her to UCLA, which is a shame because it means she won't be able to finish the competition.<br />
<br />
In the race to see which new senior is going to steal Maggie Nichols' rightful place, it's Hernandez 1, Smith 0.<br />
McGregor did a DTY. Low, but that's going to be a useful full or 1.5 for BSU next year.<br />
Second vault is a 1/2 on pike 1/2, quite messy to I'd guess keeping her with the yurchenko entry for NCAA next year.<br />
<br />
Peterman has fallen on beam. Off the Olympic team!<br />
<br />
Raisman time - 1.5 to double arabian to layout, and stays comfortable in bounds this time. Double L is short and falls out of it, strong Dos Santos to stag, the best pass in her routine usually. High and comfortable DLO as well - we're pretending these leaps don't exist because it's just better for everyone, we won't pretend like they're close to 180 - hit routine, what she needed to do to make sure she stays ahead of the other floor options. She's still a more important floor score, which can get her on the team.<br />
<br />
Roberts for Canada had a bit of a wobble burger on beam.<br />
<br />
Biles time now - fab DLO 1/1, of course, bounces back, but excellent height and form obviously - do I even need to quick hit it? It's good. I'm disturbed by these little unfortunate squeak screams in the music here. It feels...inappropriate? Like...is that woman OK? Casual sticks on the double double and the full in. You know. Whatever.<br />
<br />
You get the feeling that this music was chosen for her by a focus group. What will be the most marketable and Rio-themed music for Simone to be used during highlight reels during the Olympics to make her the star we need her to be? <br />
<br />
Bali, Mali, Chile, Malawi. It's back. It will never leave us. We will never survive.<br />
<br />
Don't worry, the US is ahead by 765 points after one rotation. <br />
<br />
Extended team ass closeup as they walk to the next event? Necessary?<br />
<br />
Simone breaks 16 on floor. Obviously.<br />
<br />
NBC showing highlights of the men's competition. It includes two routines. That pretty much sums it up.<br />
<br />
We're already to vault!<br />
Smith does a DTY - crazy legs on her block and chest down, but secure landing.<br />
<br />
Sullivan of NZ with a tkatchev/bail type bars routine - short on the bail, dismounts double pike with bounce forward.<br />
<br />
Hernandez - VT - DTY - better chest position than Smith but a large bounce back - exactly one centimeter of distance from the table. <br />
<br />
Rousseau hands down on a double pike on floor. What is the Brittany Rogers situation?<br />
<br />
Dowell - VT - DTY - good block and height, same bounce back as Hernandez. <br />
<br />
McGregor - was working well through the shap - very close on her shoot back to high and struggles after that - has the compulsory Boise State gienger but the leg form will need to be revised. <br />
<br />
Raisman - VT - bounces A THOUSAND miles out of her 2.5. She'll obviously be pissed because they were much better in training. That does not help her case because that will score below a strong DTY. The team needs her 2.5 because of questions around people like Nichols. This isn't the 2.5 the team needs.<br />
<br />
Copiak is going to be a big deal for Washington next year to replace Northey's scores.<br />
<br />
Simone also flies forward out of her 2.5. What is happening? Large lunge.<br />
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CHENG? CHENG CHENG CHENG.<br />
<br />
Cheng is much better than her Amanar suddenly today. Small hop, gets it around pretty well, low chest, hop back. It'll be fine for the Olympics. NBC is already licking its USA VS. NORTH KOREA narrative chops for the vault final at the Olympics. Can you imagine? I can imagine.<br />
<br />
Shallon Olsen has a double double. That will help, also a really tight tuck position on her double back, like an actual circle. <br />
<br />
Evan tells us we won't be seeing Brittany Rogers until vault. BUT I CAN'T WAIT THAT LONG.<br />
<br />
This meet is going at SEC pace, and I like it. The US is going to be done in like an hour.<br />
<br />
NZL had a disaster bail. Roberts from Canada shows a Dos Santos - and the Charleston -there is some solid floor difficulty in the next group of the Canadian national team, so they don't just have to rely on Ellie forever. <br />
<br />
Those US vaults were better than any other country's but not so awesome with the landings this time. Martha is going to have to put quite a few people at the punishment table tonight. No watermelon slices for you.<br />
<br />
The trendy hot take after Jesolo was that Aly's stock is PLUMMETING. It isn't. That 2.5 is still...no me gusta, but I think it will get close enough, and her floor routine continues getting her on the team. <br />
<br />
Some really unfortunate thing happened where a little girl had a cry for help and then Macready just made her hug a sad hershey's kiss. I don't want to talk about it anymore.<br />
<br />
Raisman to bars. Aly's same bars routine as always. There was a really popular claim that Aly had IMPROVED HER BARS FORM since London. Uh......a little....?<br />
<br />
Hernandez is next. she has a leg crazy on her stradle full every time, but she has some tremendous toe point and form usually, not so much this time with a ragged pak, hop on tuck full. Some iffier moments than she usually shows in training, on an event that should be quite strong for her, which is becoming a bit of a trend. Her bars training routines are better than her competition routines this year.<br />
<br />
I lied about following the NBC commentators. The NBC stream is behind, and I'm a slave to live. Also, Sam and Evan are delightful to listen to.<br />
<br />
Nice DTY from Olsen. High, small hop back. Very usable in an Olympic/Worlds context.<br />
<br />
Biles on bars - her new name is Simone AHHHHH according to the crowd - Good hit, excellent form throughout. It always looks like she wants to connect the pak out of her tkatchev but has to wait until the piked tkatchev. Sticks tuck full dismount like nothing. Very controlled and composed form throughout.<br />
<br />
Olsen's second vault is a Khorkina with signature Khorkina legs. <br />
<br />
Brittany Rogers - VT -Excellent DTY, lunge back - but clear that she should be doing the 1.5 for UGA, not the DTY like I wanted. second vault is half on layout 1/2. <br />
<br />
OK. Dowell bars. Here we go. Martha has prepared the pitchfork just in case.<br />
<br />
Dowell - UB - toe full to shapto tkatchev, high for a tkatchev out of a shap - hit jaeger - Church to pak - shap 1/2 - presice final hs - hop forward on DLO 1/1. SHE HIT A ROUTINE. Much more boring and smart composition, and a competitive D score.<br />
<br />
Did Sam accidentally just tell us that Brenna is coming out? No?<br />
<br />
Important hit for Brenna. She might get a crust of bread for that.<br />
<br />
Locklear - UB - same composition that we've seen from her - nice line and handstands throughout - very high tkatchev, the problem for her is that her spot has been taken by Kocian, and she doesn't have anything upgraded that is going to knock out Kocian if Kocian comes back health......AH HAHAHAHAHA. <br />
<br />
"Spot the tramp." I play that game too. <br />
<br />
Ragan Smith is charitably getting to go on bars even though she was not selected as one of the five. <br />
Simith - jumping to the high bar is the hardest skill for her in this routine - it's not a natural event for her or a big routine, but she has the composition, clean line, small hop on tuck full.<br />
<br />
Sullivan has some wobbles on beam, but this is a higher-level NZL showing than we have seen a bigger international meets.<br />
<br />
USAG stream goes to commercial over Macready. Bregman gets us.<br />
<br />
Final rotation beam times now. Ooohh, Locklear got a real beam spot over Dowell? Damn.<br />
Evan and Sam pointing out those seriously wonky knees on her loso series. Nice punch front - pretty comfortable and controlled position on L turn as well - switch and switch 1/2 are solid 180, loses her tow point on her switch 1/2 - double tuck with step back. This routine has become more consistent, which is a big deal for her, but it's not a TF routine. <br />
<br />
Smith coming up on beam. My preferred event for her. <br />
Smith - BB - wolfathon early - solid on layout 2ft series, secure on tuck full as well - this is the one event where she could potentially be a TFer, but others are ahead of her. Chest pretty well up on the double pike, small hop back.<br />
<br />
Roberts just did a pak into her appendix. And another fall. Oh, Canada. Our home and native land.<br />
<br />
Raisman - BB - check on front pike - she has been more nervous on beam this quad than last, not quite the same level of sturdy German-neess - "layout" to two feet - very secure - switch star jump 1/2 to back pike is very secure - I kid - I kid because her form is poor. It's a credit to her that I still really like her in spite of all these things. It's not necessarily explicable. I just do. Strong upright Patterson, but a step to the side this time, which she wasn't doing in training.<br />
<br />
Hernandez - BB - fantastic walkover to split and sissone - lovely - extended legs on her three series as well - slightly obsessed, don't worry about it - not a wobble on any of this acro - one check on switch half. Excellent switch ring, how it's supposed to look - double pike, chest down with a step. Will be a high score. This is the trouble for Smith in trying to squeeze her way onto the team. She's being out-touched by Hernandez.<br />
<br />
Rogers on bars. We know this game. And she fell on a jaeger. We also know this game. Oh, Brittany. But...from a stalder full to reverse? You go. Ricna to pak is close, which she has done a few times at Georgia. Nice shap 1/2, DLO with a hop. She made the mistake now, and won't next weekend...is what I'm going to tell myself. <br />
<br />
Aly Raisman finished a tenth ahead of Laurie Hernandez, as was agreed.<br />
<br />
We go to Simone on beam to finish things off - hits her wolf 2.5 in a not terrible way - that barani, it's just a little not-perfect for Simone, isn't it? It's fine, but chest down, and everything else is ideal. Losos are strong, as is punch front, a check or two here but this is not the tentative non-important early-season beam routine we sometimes see from Simone. Just sticks her tuck full.<br />
<br />
I feel like maybe Simone won.<br />
<br />
Brenna - BB - front tuck mount, yes you do - solid - walkover - bhs full, small check on loso series - short on a switch split - this is the routine she wasn't doing for Oklahoma, but she has been OK so far, the form isn't quite Oklahomay, but I can see her getting a spot next season. Step back on double pike.<br />
<br />
62.450 for Biles. And that's our quick little meet done and dusted. Event finals tomorrow! <br />
<br />
Brenna is 4th AA for a 58.850. It helps. Not Olympic Team helps, but it keeps her in the Trials mix. It's going to be damn hard to make Trials this year, and there are people in the Hundley category who will get Memmeled after nationals. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-53371951510658430692016-04-07T21:37:00.000-07:002016-04-08T08:56:38.919-07:00National Championships Preview Part 1: Innocent Gymnasts versus the Beam TrollGather round, darling children, and learn about the NCAA national championship, a far-off magical land where all the most glorious gymnasts assemble in an arena made of gumdrops and frozen tears for a battle royale to see who can force the biggest fake smile after her teammate falls on beam. It's always a really close contest. <br />
<br />
As is only traditional, let's begin at the start. The first of the two semifinals will take place in the void between the dimensions on April 15th at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT and should be a doozy. <br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[2] Florida (bye before floor)<br />
[3] LSU (bye before bars)<br />
[6] Auburn (vault)<br />
[9] Georgia (beam)<br />
[16] Minnesota (floor)<br />
[18] Stanford (bars) <br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>All-around </i>– Nicole Artz, Michigan; Alison Northey, Washington; Morgan Porter, Missouri; Sidney Dukes, Kentucky; Alex Hyland, Kentucky; Danielle Ramirez, Southern Utah<br />
<br />
<i>Vault </i>– Meaghan Sievers, Iowa State<br />
<i>Beam</i> – Lexi Mills, Arizona<br />
<i>Floor</i> – Talia Chiarelli, Michigan; Brianna Tsang, Penn State; Lindsay Offutt, Pittsburgh <br />
<br />
An argument can be made for five of these six teams advancing without having to concoct very many insane circumstances at all (sorry, Minnesota, but it would take a splatfest from the others). The big five should all expect to score into the 197s and will be disappointed by anything less than that. Even though we see 197s fall all over the place during the regular season, it's not a given that the challenging teams will reach that plateau in this meet as scores tend to tighten at nationals (tend being the operative word). The highest score that has <i>ever </i>failed to advance from a semifinal is 197.025, an ignominious mark shared by Utah 2014 and Michigan 2015. That's not a particularly impressive score these days during the regular season, but 197 remains a thing at the national championship. <br />
<br />
To some extent, we're in the dark about how scoring will play out in the semifinals because we're entering a whole new era. Starting this year, six judges will work each event beginning with the semifinals. Will that depress the scores? Possibly. That's two more whole people who have to be slipped a roll of cash under the bathroom door, which is a lot of work. I'm exhausted just thinking about it. <br />
<br />
This was instituted in an attempt to prevent a heap of ties for event winners now that those titles will be decided on Friday as well, and in case you're wondering, it's terrible. Theoretically, having more judges and more oversight for scores at the most important meet is a great idea, but this is also going to result in a ton of really ugly-decimal scores that will be inconsistent with the round-number scores we've seen all season long. It's the most unappealing thing I've ever heard. I just want to buy a crate of apples and stab them all about it. <br />
<br />
So...to the teams!<br />
<br />
<b>FLORIDA and LSU</b><br />
Closer to nationals, I'll do a Super Six preview, which is ludicrous to do before we know who has qualified to Super Six but when has this blog ever been unludicrous? I'll save a more detailed discussion of Florida and LSU and how they match up against the other title contenders for that preview since they should both be in the mix. Of course, there's still the semifinal to get through, and counting a fall could ruin the year for any team at this point, but these two are the clear favorites to emerge from this semifinal. If either doesn't make it, it's an upset. For the rest of the teams in this group, it isn't. <br />
<br />
Florida looked distinctly meh at regionals, and while that's a near-annual tradition that shouldn't necessarily indicate anything real, the score was a far-from-peak 196.725. I'm not expecting a 196.725 to make Super Six. By contrast, Florida also looked a little meh at regionals last year, but the score was still 197.475. Just a sliver of doubt begins to creep in, though I would be surprised by a repeat of those weak landings once we get to nationals. Another significant contributor to Florida's low score was the Kennedy Baker ankle situation. She landed short on her double pike on floor and was pulled from vault as a precaution, and with normal hits from her on those events, Florida is close to—if not at—197 already, even with the same blah landings. Baker is essential to Florida's title hopes, so the amount that ankle does/does not affect her will be a critical storyline on semifinal day.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QvpSLGHbkAY" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
LSU did not have the same issues as Florida at regionals, comfortably breaking 197 and sliding through to qualification without a question. Very reassuring. Except nothing is reassuring ever. Most doubts as to LSU's ability to fulfill expectations this year are based on traumatic flashbacks to last season, when the Tigers were in an essentially identical position and seemed a sure qualifier to Super Six until three falls on beam happened. It didn't come out of the blue last year. LSU had an iffy but manageable beam performance at regionals right before, which is why that 9.6 and 9.7 action from this year's regionals did not help alleviate any of those flashbacks.<br />
<br />
Still, this is prognostication about the likelihood of counting falls, which is a fool's game, but that's what it would take to knock Florida or LSU out of this. Based on the quality of the gymnastics we've seen this season, both of these teams should be in the hit-and-advance category. Elimination with a hit meet would be a massive shock. <br />
<br />
<b>AUBURN v. GEORGIA v. STANFORD</b><br />
Basically, I could copy-and-paste the "Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford" section from the regional previews here and just replace the word Michigan with Georgia. It would be upsettingly accurate and appropriate, hearkening back to some of my frustrations with the repetitiveness of the current postseason assignments. We more or less just did this, and if everything goes to plan, it will be these three teams facing off against each other, only now it's a fight for one spot instead of two. The comparison is particularly congruent because Michigan was thwarted by the beam at regionals, and Georgia is Georgia. Just swap one for the other. <br />
<br />
As I said then, I still consider Stanford the challenger of the group rather than a likely qualifier because of those weaknesses on vault and floor. Everything worked out at regionals because bars and beam came through as they were supposed to and the other teams had errors, but at some point relying on just two events won't be enough. Still, if Stanford's first-place tie at regionals taught us anything, it's that this is more than possible. Georgia misses beam, Auburn repeats its uninspiring regionals performance, and hello Stanford once again. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Auburn had a slow start to the year, with some untimely injuries and lost magical routines that needed replacing, but ultimately showed far fewer low points than either Stanford or Georgia. That's why Auburn ranks the best of the group on three of the four events, and maintaining that commitment to fewer lows is Auburn's path to qualification here. If I were to name the most talented of these three teams on each event, I would give vault and floor to Georgia and bars and beam to Stanford. It's close, but that's what I would do. At the same time, Georgia and Stanford are also more prone to faltering on the other events and throwing in weak meets in general, which gives Auburn the opportunity to jump into the top three by virtue of being the steadiest and least horrifying.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zBEyw5f53Io" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
I suppose Auburn is the safest choice, but if the others, particularly Georgia, come through with a real hit on the weak events, they have higher potential score and could leave Auburn behind. <br />
<br />
Beam beam beam. That repetition of the same word three times is always appropriate, but beam is particularly critical for each of these three teams' qualification hopes. We're all well acquainted with Georgia's crusade against the troll that lives under the beam and occasionally pops out to force Brittany Rogers to answer his questions three, but if Georgia conquers beam, I would argue that Georgia becomes the favorite to advance. If we total the teams' RQSs on the other three events, Georgia has the edge over Auburn by a tenth. Still, Auburn is ranked higher, defeated Georgia in their dual meet, and scored higher at SECs. Because of beam. When the teams met in the regular season, Auburn won the meet by .050 and won beam by .050. BEAM. <br />
<br />
They really do balance each other out elsewhere. Georgia has the edge on vault, Auburn boasts more reliable sticks on bars. Georgia has Jay, Box, and Marino on floor. Auburn has Atkinson, Demers, and Rott. Auburn has not been as dominant on beam this season as last season, but Milliet, Demers, and Atkinson? That should be a stellar group, and with everything else too close to call, beam remains Auburn's chance to pick up some ground in spite of the uninspiring score from regionals.<br />
<br />
Beam is just as critical for Stanford, but in a somewhat different way. It's not critical in the please-don't-fall kind of way (although not falling is always a good idea), but more in the you-probably-need-a-49.500 kind of way. I don't know how realistic that score is for a beam lineup that misses Vaculik and Wing, but because the scores on vault and floor will be somewhere around 49.1-49.2 on a solid day, the beam number needs to be large. Those vaults have been getting the "none for Gretchen Wieners" treatment all season, which isn't tenable in semifinals. A 49.1 is not a Super Six score, which means by default, bars and beam must be world-beating to catch a hit meet from any of the top four seeds here. Bars delivered at regionals. Now beam needs to as well. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Zy4Le5Tiqxc" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Stanford competes on bars and beam in the first two rotations so will let us know fairly early if this meet is a thing. The combined bars and beam score from regionals was 98.750, and if Stanford isn't at least equal to that here, I have a hard time envisioning qualification or a 197. Top three at the halfway point is essential. If Stanford isn't top three after three rotations, that's it. Ground won't be gained on floor and vault. Stanford must lead from the front. It's not ideal, but Stanford had the same rotation order last year and was able to get the big scores early and use them to hold off a surging Michigan by a slim margin at the end. <br />
<br />
Starting on beam, Georgia will compete on what presumably will be its lowest and highest scoring events in the first half of the meet, so an acceptable halfway score probably means something around 98.600. If we say 49.200 on beam and 49.400 on floor, that's a solid number and one that is fully attainable for these lineups. Since Auburn gets to finish on floor during the year of the insane final-rotation floor scores, Georgia will want a healthy lead heading to the end of the meet to buffer against a Rott, Demers, Atkinson festival of 9.9s that could change the game at the last minute.<br />
<br />
The fourth rotation is the serious one to watch here. Georgia goes to vault, Auburn goes to beam, and Stanford goes to floor. This is the Gymdogs' opportunity to pounce. They should win this rotation by a couple tenths given the events on which the others will be competing, so Georgia's margin (or lack thereof) at this point will tell us who holds the power. <br />
<br />
<b>MINNESOTA</b><br />
Poor Minnesota, I've left you out of this completely, but Minnesota's victory for the season is advancing to this stage. Until about March, that seemed unrealistic, but Minnesota held to the plan exactly at regionals by staying close with Denver on three events and then being clearly better on beam to establish a margin. Well, not exactly to the plan since Mable fell on floor, but mostly to the plan. If Mable doesn't fall on floor in the semifinals, she's one of the legitimate contenders for the all-around title in her final attempt. Minnesota has gone through some...issues...since 2013 when the team last qualified in Mable's freshman year, so it's sort of fitting to return to nationals in her senior year. It's been a long road, but...poetic-sounding things about how it has come back around. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ABf-qkypRdw" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
If Minnesota were to have a path to qualification, it would be through weathering a disaster meet from all corners. Minnesota is rooting for insanity and chaos. Say, Georgia and Auburn both have a beam catastrophe and Minnesota outscores Stanford by enough on vault and floor. It could happen, but it's quite dependent on the performance of the other teams, not the performance of Minnesota. I do expect a competitive beam score for Minnesota since Mable and Nordquist would be late-lineup beamers for any team in this competition, and a mid-196 would be quite a worthy result.<br />
<br />
<b>THE PACE</b><br />
Stanford and Minnesota will certainly need to exceed their RQSs to have a chance to qualify out of this meet (and the same applies to Auburn since Georgia's event-by-event RQSs are actually higher than Auburn's), but the rotation-by-rotation RQSs do provide a sense of where teams are expected to score/rank at various points in the meet so we can tell who is exceeding those expectations as we go.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 1:</b> Minnesota 49.270, Auburn 49.250, Stanford 49.230, Georgia 49.180, Florida BYE, LSU BYE<br />
Minnesota begins on floor and would need this exact kind of number to have any hope, but the Stanford bars and Georgia beam RQSs underestimate their capabilities (posssssibly). I'd say Stanford will expect and need the lead after one event. Not-last after beam may be the victory for Georgia.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 2: </b>Stanford 98.425, Minnesota 98.390, Florida 49.505, LSU 49.370, Auburn 49.250, Georgia 49.180<br />
Even RQS, which isn't a particularly pretty picture for Stanford, tells us that Stanford should have a lead after two events, but the score will need to be bigger than this for Stanford to hold on. Stanford needs a <i>giant </i>lead after the second rotation. For Florida and LSU, as long as they can get relatively close to their RQSs on each event, they'll be fine and dandy.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 3: </b>Florida 98.925, LSU 98.725; Georgia 98.565; Auburn 98.545; Stanford 98.425; Minnesota 98.390 <br />
And this is why Stanford would need a much higher score after two events. Stanford needs to be top three once everyone has done two events, and RQS has them 5th. Nope. I really hope the race between Georgia and Auburn is as close as this the whole way because it's going to make for an excellent finish. The rotation order gives us a relatively neck-and-neck picture throughout, and neither should ever leave the other behind. <br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>Rotation 4: </b>Georgia 147.980, Auburn 147.760, Minnesota 147.570, Stanford 147.475, Florida 98.925, LSU 98.725<br />
After that all-important fourth rotation, event RQS has Georgia leading Auburn by two tenths, which is the margin what we should be looking for if we want those two to end in a tie. When Auburn is on floor and Georgia is on bars for the last event, I'd take Auburn gaining about two tenths. Variation from that two-tenth margin will tell us who has the advantage. Except for the fact that inevitable falls will render all this moot, but if it goes to plan, this is the guideline. If Minnesota really is this close heading to beam, they'll be over the moon.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 5: </b>Minnesota 196.755, Stanford 196.595, Florida 148.425, LSU 148.270, Georgia 147.980, Auburn 147.760<br />
High 196s like this would be a great result for Minnesota and would put the Gophers in a ripe position to take advantage of other teams' mistakes, but Stanford should do better than this pace, in spite of this being quite similar to the result from regionals. A mid-196 is not going to be good enough, or an acceptable result for Stanford, even if the others have a sloppy meet. RQS tells us that Florida and LSU should have pulled away from the pack by multiple tenths at this point, which is why they should advance without all that much trouble given a normal hit.<br />
<br />
<b>Rotation 6:</b> Florida 197.855, LSU 197.715, Georgia 197.260, Auburn 197.205, Minnesota 196.755, Stanford 196.595<br />
The event RQSs give this thing to Georgia by a half tenth, while the overall meet RQSs give it to Auburn by a tenth and a half, hence Auburn's higher ranking. That's why I'm so hopeful for a really close contest. Once Georgia figured out beam (ish, sort of, not really), it became clear that these two teams are exceptionally evenly matched. Which brings us back to the quality of the beam hit. RQS assumes a relatively weak beam hit for Georgia, so the first rotation will provide a framework for which team seems to be the favorite. <br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-68781884547995700032016-04-06T17:29:00.000-07:002016-04-06T17:29:47.685-07:002016 Vaults in ReviewThe tyranny of the yurchenko full. Since the dawn of life on earth, we have been hearing about the wicked prevalence of yurchenko fulls on vault and how a lineup consisting of six of the same average, snoozer vaults is super boring. Then, in the year 2015, the NCAA coaches did something shocking. They actually decided to get up from their Rip Van Winkle naps and try to change the rules in order to improve the sport. I know. I'm still not over it. They downgraded the yurchenko full and (theoretically) the yurchenko half to a 9.95 start value with the dual aims of increasing variety on vault and encouraging/rewarding those who are able to show more difficulty. With a season of vaults under the new values behind us, let's look into how it actually worked. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pWmLIqF_rik" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
A cursory glance at the lineups of the top teams tells us that we did see a greater variety of vaults this season than in recent years, though usually by about one vault per team. Oklahoma is vaulting three yfulls in 2016 compared to four last year. Florida and UCLA both have four yfulls this year instead of five like last year. LSU and Georgia were already showing a number of higher-difficulty vaults last year and stayed constant at those numbers. Utah showed one 1.5 and five fulls again this year, and Auburn's non-full options remain the same. Alabama and Michigan adapted the most among the top tier, each showing three 1.5s (when Casanova was healthy), compared to one most of last year for both teams.<br />
<br />
The change has come about pretty much the way we all expected, with a number of top vaulters who have always been fully capable of performing 1.5s upgrading back to vaults they used to perform, like Kennedy Baker, Haley Scaman, Lauren Beers, Mack Brannan, Talia Chiarelli, and Elizabeth Price to the DTY, providing some more variety in their teams' lineups, as much as you can consider a yurchenko 1.5 instead of a yurchenko full "variety." <br />
<br />
We've also seen a few 1.5s make it into vault lineups they weren't making previously from the likes of Breanna Hughes and Pua Hall. Hall is an interesting example of someone who prooooobably wouldn't be making that lineup if the 1.5 and the full were the same value because her landing gets a little 9.750, but the extra .05 in SV makes it worthwhile compared to an average full. <br />
<br />
It isn't worth it for everyone, however. We know Bridget Sloan can do a 1.5. We all lived through the "BRIDGET SLOAN IS TRAINING AN AMANAR YOU GUYS I SWEAR" years, but she has stayed with the full all season to get a more reliable score and, primarily, to frustrate Kathy Johnson who always thinks she's going to do a 1.5 and is always disappointed. Not every gymnast who can do a 1.5 has been encouraged to do so by the paltry gift of an extra .05. <br />
<br />
Less common, but still occurring, are Hunter Price situations. These are the pot of gold from the change in values. Price's handspring pike 1/2 has been on the cusp of that vault lineup forever but wasn't quite worth it in the lineup. She has used the .05 advantage to push her way into Oklahoma's six and provide a little extra variety. <br />
<br />
I have not yet addressed those vaults-that-shall-not-be-named that masquerade as arabians and get a 10.0 SV, mostly because I'm done talking about them forever. The rule just needs to change for next year, though certainly teams have been getting an extra boost of 10.0 vaults and alleged variety by exploiting that loophole. This is the one area in which the new vault values have been a clear and indisputable negative, adding controversy where there should be none and confusion where there should be clarity. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Vault variety is not all the way there yet, and the lineup composition is not <i>too</i> too different than it was in previous years, but it's better. It will take some time for the teams to fully adapt. Next year, they should be more ready for it. For now, the yurchenko full remains the dominant vault, and vault lineups are still a yurchenko parade with only a minority of teams showing any other entries at all. It's going to be very hard to change that at the NCAA level because yurchenko is the entry people perform in JO. Changes would have to come at the JO level if we really want to see <i>equal</i> numbers of handspring and tsuk vaults in NCAA.<br />
<br />
Now, I've limited this discussion to the top teams, mostly because those are the teams for which I can recall the vault lineups from last year in order to make a comparison. The coaches really should have to submit their vaulting programs to me so that we all know what everyone has been doing each year. The big concern raised over the years about changing the vault values, however, concerns those other mid-ranked teams. The assumption was that only the top teams would really be able to adapt to the new values by upgrading to 1.5s, leaving the mid-ranked teams to wallow in their lower-scoring fulls, thus reducing parity and the opportunity for upsets. <br />
<br />
Did that happen? Let's find out. <br />
<br />
For each of the last 10 seasons, I've listed the #1 vault RQS, the #20 vault RQS, and the difference between them to see how the margin has grown or narrowed between the best and the middle. <br />
<br />
<i>2016</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.445<br />
#20 RQS: 49.050<br />
<b>Difference: 0.395</b><br />
<br />
<i>2015</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.560<br />
#20 RQS: 49.065<br />
<b>Difference: 0.495</b><br />
<br />
<i>2014</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.550<br />
#20 RQS: 49.140<br />
<b>Difference 0.410</b><br />
<br />
<i>2013</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.495<br />
#20 RQS: 49.160<br />
<b>Difference: 0.335</b><br />
<br />
<i>2012</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.510<br />
#20 RQS: 49.070<br />
<b>Difference: 0.440 </b><br />
<br />
<i>2011</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.440<br />
#20 RQS: 49.065<br />
<b>Difference: 0.375 </b><br />
<br />
<i>2010</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.415<br />
#20 RQS: 49.045<br />
<b>Difference: 0.370 </b><br />
<br />
<i>2009</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.430<br />
#20 RQS: 49.070<br />
<b>Difference 0.360 </b><br />
<br />
<i>2008</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.445<br />
#20 RQS: 48.975<br />
<b>Difference: 0.450 </b><br />
<br />
<i>2007</i><br />
#1 RQS: 49.445<br />
#20 RQS: 49.025<br />
<b>Difference: 0.420 </b><br />
<br />
We can see that the difference between the #1 vaulting team and the #20 vaulting team in 2016 was smaller than it had been the last couple years, and while we'll need more years with the new values to make a true determination, changing the vault values does not seem to have exacerbated any gap between teams that recruit elites and those that do not. The margin between these teams varies pretty widely from year to year, but 2016 is on the lower end of the variation. The same is true further down the rankings, with the weaker teams facing either a similar or smaller vault gap to the best teams, but not a larger one.<br />
<br />
If you were looking for those teams that do show a couple more difficult vaults to be rewarded for that difficulty with a scoring boost over those showing six yfulls, however, you're out of luck. They haven't. For example LSU, our top vaulting team and one that has retained a similar level of difficulty to last year with three 1.5/DTYs, recorded a vault RQS this year .285 higher than that of Arkansas, a team with six fulls. In 2015, LSU recorded a vault RQS .260 higher than Arkansas, when the teams had the same disparity in difficulty but the start values were equal. <br />
<br />
Most significantly, we can see from the above RQSs that the change in values has successfully reduced overall vault scoring from the boom years of 2012-2015, which was another likely outcome. No one has six 10.0 vaults this year, so every team should take a scoring hit compared to last year and probably should have taken a bigger scoring hit than actually occurred. If a team is putting up six yfulls, the vault total should theoretically be .250 lower than it was last year, all else being equal, so why is the #20 vaulting team only scoring .015 lower than last year and around a tenth lower than the previous two years? <br />
<br />
Still, while the decrease in scores probably should have been greater than it was given the lower start values, the change has curbed some of the recent hyperactive vault scoring and has returned those scores to levels similar to the pre-2012 era, when yurchenko fulls had a 10.0 SV but scoring across the country was a tad stricter and more realistic than it is now. For whatever reason. Here are the last 10 years of vault RQSs for the top 20 teams in graph form.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GDPMMDsnoA0/VwWb-_pSRUI/AAAAAAAABQk/gFfN8rJWxFcrO3IPIWoZrVkTFdxnA2VRA/s1600/VaultRQS.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GDPMMDsnoA0/VwWb-_pSRUI/AAAAAAAABQk/gFfN8rJWxFcrO3IPIWoZrVkTFdxnA2VRA/s640/VaultRQS.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
This scoring plummet in 2016 is a good thing, and an encouraging step toward saner scores, but a problem arises when we compare the average on vault to the average on the other events, which have undergone no such adjustment in start values or routine evaluation. On these events, the scores have continued to rise, with beam and floor reaching their ten-year highs. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zgnAjZgtFNs/VwWcFFG1tRI/AAAAAAAABQs/D68MycEYZD4ztGBq8XbStbQa1fkeiJs2w/s1600/BarsRQS.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zgnAjZgtFNs/VwWcFFG1tRI/AAAAAAAABQs/D68MycEYZD4ztGBq8XbStbQa1fkeiJs2w/s640/BarsRQS.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Fk26oQNOp3Y/VwWcHtwhpHI/AAAAAAAABQ0/25Bp52GdbZYmukrvDI4uO6VpedRpYLLTw/s1600/BeamRQS.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Fk26oQNOp3Y/VwWcHtwhpHI/AAAAAAAABQ0/25Bp52GdbZYmukrvDI4uO6VpedRpYLLTw/s640/BeamRQS.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DtSN2ZQP2ec/VwWcPcAWyyI/AAAAAAAABQ8/GHS1d_oQ7lYdqvYbi-Wovgoqza4JsZabw/s1600/FloorRQS.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DtSN2ZQP2ec/VwWcPcAWyyI/AAAAAAAABQ8/GHS1d_oQ7lYdqvYbi-Wovgoqza4JsZabw/s640/FloorRQS.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
If we take a look at this year's numbers, the average RQS for the top 20 teams on vault is 49.199, compared to 49.280 on bars, 49.253 on beam, and 49.357 on floor. This is the first year since 2007 in which vault has not been the highest-scoring event in NCAA. The other events, particularly floor, are growing too different to the point where it clearly pays more to be good at floor than it does to be good at the other apparatuses. This has been happening for a couple seasons with both vault and floor, separating themselves too much from bars and beam, but now that vault has been adjusted downward, floor is the real outlier. <br />
<br />
In themselves, the changes on vault are a positive. They're beginning to encourage more variety, they're bringing the overall vault scores down to a more reasonable level, and they're providing some built-in separation for the judges to use in order to differentiate among various vaults of clearly different quality.<br />
<br />
These changes must, however, continue through the other events to bring them into line with vault, which has become the lowest-scoring apparatus this season. It's now much more difficult to get a 10.0 start on vault, so let's make it just as difficult to get a 10.0 start on floor. While the need for more variety may not be as stark on floor as it had been on vault with all those yurchenko fulls, floor composition is just as repetitive and just as in need of help. Double pike/switch side+popa/1.5+layout/rudi is the new yurchenko full. So maybe we'll see a change in 20 years. <br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-80392274067096243192016-04-05T16:06:00.001-07:002016-04-06T19:03:50.854-07:00Who Is Going to Make Super Six?Are you still alive? Maybe? Ish?<br />
<br />
The extended frigid hellscape that was regionals day is now squarely behind us, with all the Michigan tears and Stanford celebration dances accounted for, and if you were able to emerge from that 58-millenium barrage of meets and marathon of interminable bye rotations without passing out and deciding that you hate gymnastics now, you're the winner. <br />
<br />
For a recap of all the action you may have missed, or seen, or intentionally got amnesia about, or found infuriating, be sure to listen to this week's <a href="http://gymcastic.com/" target="_blank">episode of Gymcastic</a>. I join Jessica and Uncle Tim to go through the day regional by regional to speculate about whether the Iowa regional was judged by three lemons and the concept of winter, argue over the merits of the handspring-onto-the-springboard vault, and warn that in spite of what you may have heard from your friends, the Stanford Rhythm Method is not a reliable form of making nationals. Among other topics. Get ready. <br />
<br />
For the moment, let's look toward nationals. We know our semifinalists, and the rotation order has been released, so it's time to get a-speculatin'. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g4ig8FXRfCU/VwP-1xBGmwI/AAAAAAAABP8/BRRBNzBjtHIT-BwOCTlRZCRGcSZpCVqQA/s1600/nats.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="359" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g4ig8FXRfCU/VwP-1xBGmwI/AAAAAAAABP8/BRRBNzBjtHIT-BwOCTlRZCRGcSZpCVqQA/s640/nats.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
It was probably going to be the case anyway, but the Michigan upset has left what looks to be a golden opportunity for several teams to snatch the third spot out of the first semifinal, assuming that Florida and LSU are the favorites. After all the terrors of this season, has Georgia become the pick to advance? The Gymdogs get to start on beam again. Nothing like a high-budget dystopian horror comedy to start the day. But they hit beam at regionals! Kind of! They did enough! Hooray! <br />
<br />
Few of the rotation assignments jump out as particularly disastrous for any of these teams, though I do think that Stanford benefited from finishing on its good events at regionals and will have the opposite order here, starting with events that need to score massively and finishing on events that are unlikely to. Stanford will need the judges to be willing to flash the 9.900-9.950s right from the first routine of the first session because Stanford really must get 49.5s on bars and beam. <br />
<br />
In the coming days, I'll delve into more detailed prognostication about the semifinals, Super Six, and whether we even care about the individual competitions anymore, but for today, let's set things up with a glance at the numbers. Which are the key events to watch if we're looking for an upset? And who's capable of pulling it off? Categories in which a team places in the top three in the session (a qualifying spot) are highlighted. <br />
<br />
<i><b>SEMIFINAL 1</b></i><br />
<br />
<b>FLORIDA</b><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regional score: 196.725 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">RQS: 197.795 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regular season average: 197.502 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Season high: 198.175 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">VT regional score: 49.225 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT RQS: 49.420 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT average: 49.341 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT season high: 49.500 [3] </span><br />
<br />
UB regional score: 49.125 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB RQS: 49.500 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB average: 49.439 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB season high: 49.650 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.300 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB RQS: 49.430 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB average: 49.318 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB season high: 49.525 [3] </span><br />
<br />
FX regional score: 49.075 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX RQS: 49.505 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX average: 49.405 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX season high: 49.675 [2] </span><br />
<br />
Florida should be the heaviest favorite in the first semifinal and settles in comfortably in the top three here in every category except those pertaining to that lackluster regionals performance. It's worth treating as just an odd blip for now that shouldn't compromise our expectations of Florida making it out of this semifinal safely and easily, but it doesn't help in the race to catch Oklahoma. <br />
<a name='more'></a> <br />
<br />
<b>LSU</b><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regional score: 197.300 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">RQS: 197.695 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regular season average: 197.209 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Season high: 197.925 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">VT regional score: 49.400 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT RQS: 49.445 [1]</span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT average: 49.395 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT season high: 49.550 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">UB regional score: 49.300 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB RQS: 49.370 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB average: 49.252 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB season high: 49.475 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.150 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB RQS: 49.355 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB average: 49.141 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB season high: 49.575 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.450 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX RQS: 49.545 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX average: 49.420 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX season high: 49.700 [1] </span><br />
<br />
LSU goes all blue here because of a much stronger (and more charitably scored) regionals performance than Florida. There were some definite benefit-of-the-doubt scores, including Ewing's 9.975 for an under-rotated 1.5 and Gnat's floor 9.950 in spite of bouncing out of her final pass. Still, it would take a repeat of last season's beam debacle to keep LSU out of Super Six, largely because of what the team can make up on vault and floor. Between Florida and LSU, the competition sets up pretty cleanly and clearly in that LSU has been the stronger vault and floor team and Florida has been the stronger bars and beam team (on non-regionals-type days), so determining which advantage is more valuable will be something to watch in this semifinal with an eye toward how these teams might fare in Super Six. <br />
<br />
<b>AUBURN</b><br />
Regional score: 196.525 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">RQS: 197.150 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regular season average: 196.692 [3] </span> <br />
Season high: 197.325 [6] <br />
<br />
VT regional score: 49.150 [5] <br />
VT RQS: 49.250 [4] <br />
VT average: 49.167 [4] <br />
VT season high: 49.375 [4]<br />
<br />
UB regional score: 49.125 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB RQS: 49.295 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB average: 49.215 [3] </span><br />
UB season high: 49.375 [6] <br />
<br />
BB regional score: 48.850 [6] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB RQS: 49.215 [3] </span><br />
BB average: 49.042 [4] <br />
BB season high: 49.300 [6] <br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.400 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX RQS: 49.445 [3] </span><br />
FX average: 49.269 [4] <br />
FX season high: 49.600 [4] <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>GEORGIA</b><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regional score: 196.850 [2] </span><br />
RQS: 197.010 [4] <br />
Regular season average: 196.462 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">Season high: 197.525 [3] </span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT regional score: 49.275 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT RQS: 49.415 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT average: 49.283 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT season high: 49.525 [2] </span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB regional score: 49.250 [3] </span><br />
UB RQS: 49.280 [4] <br />
UB average: 49.165 [4] <br />
UB season high: 49.400 [5] <br />
<br />
BB regional score: 49.025 [5] <br />
BB RQS: 49.180 [6] <br />
BB average: 48.694 [6] <br />
BB season high: 49.425 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.300 [3] </span><br />
FX RQS: 49.385 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX average: 49.315 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX season high: 49.625 [3] </span><br />
<br />
Georgia finishes in the top 3 in more categories than Auburn, primarily due to Georgia's superior regionals performance. Neither team had a phenomenal meet, but Georgia's three post-beam events reflected a team that is quite capable of making Super Six out of this session. Auburn, meanwhile, won the coveted, definitely-very-important regular-season fight with Georgia to see which team would make the evening session at SECs. Georgia v. Auburn with a side of Stanford is setting up as the most entertaining part of semifinal day, barring the inevitable meltdown. <br />
<br />
Critically, Auburn did worse than Georgia on beam at regionals. Surely that can't be repeated in the semifinals if Auburn is going to qualify. And it all comes back to Georgia's beam once again... <br />
<br />
<b>MINNESOTA</b><br />
Regional score: 196.175 [6] <br />
RQS: 196.495 [5] <br />
Regular season average: 196.090 [6] <br />
Season high: 197.425 [4] <br />
<br />
VT regional score: 49.175 [4] <br />
VT RQS: 49.120 [5] <br />
VT average: 48.975 [6] <br />
VT season high: 49.275 [5] <br />
<br />
UB regional score: 48.950 [6] <br />
UB RQS: 49.180 [6] <br />
UB average: 48.963 [6] <br />
UB season high: 49.425 [4] <br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.150 [3] </span><br />
BB RQS: 49.185 [5] <br />
BB average: 49.021 [5] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB season high: 49.675 [1] </span><br />
<br />
FX regional score: 48.900 [6] <br />
FX RQS: 49.270 [5] <br />
FX average: 49.131 [5] <br />
FX season high: 49.375 [5] <br />
<br />
Of the 12 qualified teams, Minnesota is the least likely to advance to Super Six, though the Gophers do snatch a couple of blue spots thanks to Mable and Nordquist on beam, the duo that seriously helped them stay ahead of Denver at regionals. <br />
<br />
<b>STANFORD</b><br />
Regional score: 196.525 [4] <br />
RQS: 196.355 [6] <br />
Regular season average: 196.148 [5] <br />
Season high: 197.400 [5] <br />
<br />
VT regional score: 48.800 [6] <br />
VT RQS: 49.120 [5] <br />
VT average: 49.013 [5] <br />
VT season high: 49.250 [6] <br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB regional score: 49.500 [1] </span><br />
UB RQS: 49.230 [5] <br />
UB average: 49.130 [5] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB season high: 49.525 [2] </span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.250 [2] </span><br />
BB RQS: 49.195 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB average: 49.088 [3] </span><br />
BB season high: 49.375 [5] <br />
<br />
FX regional score: 48.975 [5] <br />
FX RQS: 49.050 [6] <br />
FX average: 48.918 [6] <br />
FX season high: 49.250 [6] <br />
<br />
The numbers bear out what we all already know about Stanford. When Stanford is having a good day, the bars and beam rotations can be a force and can contend with any team, but even though Stanford was able to overcome vault and floor to get out of a messy regional, can what is basically a two-event team + Ebee really put up a score viable enough to get out of a semifinal? <br />
<br />
<i><b>SEMIFINAL 2</b></i><br />
<br />
<b>OKLAHOMA</b><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regional score: 197.575 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">RQS: 197.920 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regular season average: 197.588 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Season high: 198.075 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">VT regional score: 49.275 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT RQS: 49.415 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT average: 49.356 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT season high: 49.475 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">UB regional score: 49.575 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB RQS: 49.575 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB average: 49.467 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB season high: 49.675 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.425 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB RQS: 49.445 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB average: 49.362 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB season high: 49.550 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.300 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX RQS: 49.575 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX average: 49.404 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX season high: 49.700 [1] </span><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>ALABAMA</b><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regional score: 197.125 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">RQS: 197.400 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Regular season average: 197.042 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">Season high: 197.750 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">VT regional score: 49.225 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT RQS: 49.355 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT average: 49.260 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">VT season high: 49.425 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">UB regional score: 49.275 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB RQS: 49.405 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB average: 49.283 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">UB season high: 49.600 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.150 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB RQS: 49.320 [3] </span><br />
BB average: 49.142 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB season high: 49.550 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.475 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX RQS: 49.445 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX average: 49.356 [3] </span><br />
FX season high: 49.500 [4] <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UTAH</b><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">Regional score: 197.125 [2] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">RQS: 197.205 [3] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">Regular season average: 196.970 [3] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">Season high: 196.675 [3] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">VT regional score: 49.250 [2] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">VT RQS: 49.255 [3] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">VT average: 49.200 [3] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">VT season high: 49.400 [3] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">UB regional score: 49.350 [2] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">UB RQS: 49.395 [3]</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">UB average: 49.323 [2] </span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: white;">UB season high: 49.550 [3] </span></span> <br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB regional score: 49.225 [2] </span><br />
BB RQS: 49.290 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB average: 49.168 [3] </span> <br />
BB season high: 49.450 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.300 [3] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX RQS: 49.485 [2] </span><br />
FX average: 49.280 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX season high: 49.625 [2] </span><br />
<br />
The picture is clearer here. This looks to be the tougher of the two semifinals and poses a bigger challenge to the bottom three seeds. Based on recent performances, Oklahoma is pulling away from everyone, even the closest contenders like Florida and LSU, and Alabama and Utah look like the most convincing and least stressful choices among the remaining teams in this session. That outlook really hinges upon how influential UCLA's beam and floor scores can be in trying to leap ahead of Alabama and Utah since vault and bars go to the top three seeds here in a landslide. <br />
<br />
<b>UCLA</b><br />
Regional score: 196.375 [5] <br />
RQS: 197.055 [4] <br />
Regular season average: 196.782 [4] <br />
Season high: 197.475 [5] <br />
<br />
VT regional score: 49.125 [4] <br />
VT RQS: 49.180 [5] <br />
VT average: 49.084 [5] <br />
VT season high: 49.375 [4] <br />
<br />
UB regional score: 48.800 [6] <br />
UB RQS: 49.235 [4] <br />
UB average: 49.105 [4] <br />
UB season high: 49.350 [6] <br />
<br />
BB regional score: 49.050 [5] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB RQS: 49.325 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB average: 49.184 [2] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">BB season high: 49.575 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;">FX regional score: 49.400 [2] </span><br />
FX RQS: 49.430 [4] <br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX average: 49.405 [1] </span><br />
<span style="color: blue;">FX season high: 49.600 [3] </span><br />
<br />
UCLA is theoretically competitive with, if not stronger than, Alabama
and Utah on beam and floor, but a repeat of the beam score from regionals
would all but decide this competition and leave everyone waiting for a flurry of falls to somehow change the status quo. While it may not be quite as urgent as Stanford's need on bars and beam, it's tough to see UCLA advancing without exceeding RQS on beam and floor. <br />
<br />
<b>CALIFORNIA</b><br />
Regional score: 195.925 [6] <br />
RQS: 196.770 [5] <br />
Regular season average: 196.230 [5] <br />
Season high: 197.500 [4] <br />
<br />
VT regional score: 48.875 [6] <br />
VT RQS: 49.185 [4] <br />
VT average: 49.086 [4] <br />
VT season high: 49.225 [6] <br />
<br />
UB regional score: 49.175 [5] <br />
UB RQS: 49.150 [6] <br />
UB average: 48.936 [6] <br />
UB season high: 49.475 [4] <br />
<br />
BB regional score: 48.900 [6] <br />
BB RQS: 49.205 [6] <br />
BB average: 48.975 [6] <br />
BB season high: 49.350 [6] <br />
<br />
FX regional score: 48.975 [6] <br />
FX RQS: 49.295 [5]<br />
FX average: 49.232 [5] <br />
FX season high: 49.450 [6] <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>NEBRASKA</b><br />
Regional score: 196.550 [4] <br />
RQS: 196.635 [6] <br />
Regular season average: 196.205 [6] <br />
Season high: 197.350 [6] <br />
<br />
VT regional score: 48.925 [5] <br />
VT RQS: 49.105 [6] <br />
VT average: 48.991 [6] <br />
VT season high: 49.275 [5] <br />
<br />
UB regional score: 49.225 [4] <br />
UB RQS: 49.180 [5] <br />
UB average: 49.016 [5] <br />
UB season high: 49.475 [4] <br />
<br />
BB regional score: 49.125 [4] <br />
BB RQS: 49.255 [5] <br />
BB average: 49.068 [5] <br />
BB season high: 49.375 [5] <br />
<br />
FX regional score: 49.275 [5] <br />
FX RQS: 49.260 [6] <br />
FX average: 49.130 [6] <br />
FX season high: 49.475 [5] <br />
<br />
Nebraska was very steady in a somewhat strictly-evaluated regional, while Cal endured an off day to finish in the top two at its own, but the lack of blue categories for either raises the issue that they may not have the big rotation numbers it takes to emerge from a semifinal, the way UCLA might on beam and floor. Not since 2011 has a 196 been enough to qualify to Super Six, so the likelihood of hitting 197 must be the benchmark now. <br />
<br />
Doesn't this semifinal with Utah, UCLA, and Nebraska remind you of 2014 when Utah and UCLA were supposed to be battling for the final spot out of the second semifinal and then Nebraska just showed up on beam in that final rotation to go, "Oh wait, us."<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-16095315567711627932016-04-02T12:03:00.000-07:002016-04-02T19:58:16.324-07:00Regionals Live BlogIt's regionals day! The one day every year where your biggest problem is the decision whether to dedicate your phone to one of the competitions streams or put that pressure on your computer with a extra browser window and risk a critical-mass rebellion. It's a really rough life. We probably need a charity. Or at least a hashtag. #prayforgymfans<br />
<br />
Regionals headquarters with all the info is <a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/04/regional-championship-headquarters.html" target="_blank">here</a>, but these are the highlights: <br />
<b>4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Athens, GA</b> – <a href="http://www.georgiadogs.com/livestats/w-gym/2016/16ncaa-athens.htm" target="_blank">Scores</a> - <a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index" target="_blank">Stream </a><br />
<b>5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Iowa City, IA</b> – <a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/iowa-w-gym.html" target="_blank">Scores</a> - <a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529296" target="_blank">Stream</a> -<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529120" target="_blank"> Stream (vault)</a> -<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529119" target="_blank"> Steam (bars)</a> -<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529121" target="_blank"> Stream (beam)</a> -<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529122" target="_blank"> Stream (floor)</a> <br />
<b>5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Minneapolis, MN</b> – <a href="http://www.gophersports.com/livestats/w-gym/" target="_blank">Scores</a> -<a href="http://www.gophersports.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/regional-video.html" target="_blank"> Stream</a><br />
<b>5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Tuscaloosa, AL</b> – <a href="http://www.rolltide.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/2016-live-scoring.html" target="_blank">Scores</a> -<a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index" target="_blank"> Stream</a> <br />
<b>6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Ann Arbor, MI</b> – <a href="http://www.mgoblue.com/livestats/w-gym/" target="_blank">Scores</a> -<a href="http://www.mgoblue.com/collegesportslive/?media=528688" target="_blank"> Stream</a><br />
<b>8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Salt Lake City, UT</b> – <a href="http://www.utahutes.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/utah-w-gym-livestats.html" target="_blank">Scores</a> -<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah" target="_blank"> Stream</a> -<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-6" target="_blank"> Stream (vault)</a> -<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-4" target="_blank"> Stream (bars)</a> -<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-5" target="_blank"> Stream (beam)</a> -<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-3" target="_blank"> Stream (floor) </a><br />
<br />
After all these months, today is also the first time all season that results actually matter! Hooray! In a few short (long) hours, 36 becomes 12. Top two or bust! You know, that famous goal all athletes have. Clear eyes, full hearts, can finish second and still advance. <br />
<br />
The hope for today is that someone, somewhere will pull off some manner of upset. After the top 12 all advanced to nationals last season, we earned something a little more fun. One teensy little meltdown doesn't seem like too much to ask. Put in your upset predictions now, so that you can be showered with praise when it happens.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ssgkol-PJ1U/Vv2P25eAhgI/AAAAAAAABOI/CNDKfkteKU8pV5MLxuSjALroOVVmxwr8Q/s1600/regionalsrotations.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ssgkol-PJ1U/Vv2P25eAhgI/AAAAAAAABOI/CNDKfkteKU8pV5MLxuSjALroOVVmxwr8Q/s1600/regionalsrotations.png" /></a></div>
<br />
The day will start slowly, which is charitable, but it will become nightmarish pretty quickly. We will invariably start missing things in hour two, when a number of the crucial bubble teams will all be on beam. Nebraska, Denver, and Cal's beam rotations will all determine quite a lot about what the #3 seeds will (or will not) have to do to score the much-anticipated upset.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Right from the start, of course, watching Georgia's beam will be a monumental emotional and physical hurdle for all of us, but just as important in that rotation will be Oregon State's floor. It will be very difficult for Oregon State to pull off an upset (meltdowns notwithstanding) without something 49.2ish on floor because we'll expect much higher from Georgia there.<br />
<br />
Things are almost happening!<br />
<br />
RQS pace for the first rotation in Athens is Oregon State 49.185, Georgia 49.180, GWU 49.020, MSU 48.805. Both OSU and Georgia will hope for much more. Particularly Georgia because we know this team should be capable of 49.3s on beam. Should. We don't know. I'm basically having a panic attack and I don't even have to do beam today.<br />
<br />
Upon glancing at the Iowa regional scores page, it appears that Rachel Stypinski is in the AA for Kent State today, which helps the quest to potentially finish ahead of CMU in that all-important fight for 5th.<br />
<br />
Your event is about to begin. Please stand by.<br />
<br />
We're standing. Really, we should be sitting.<br />
<br />
If you're here checking to make sure it hasn't started for everyone, it hasn't started for everyone. We're all in this together. <br />
<br />
Welp, I've made everything on my desk parallel and perpendicular, but that still hasn't given me control over this regional starting.<br />
<br />
As if we needed more meets converging on the same start time!<br />
<br />
Just to sum up, AAHHHHHHHHHHH.<br />
<br />
It's starting. Blood pressure, returning to just unhealthy levels. Hey, Kevin!<br />
The struggle is real for Cat Hires and words today. We get it, Cat.<br />
<br />
Brittany Rogers's nervous face is all of our spirit animals. <br />
<br />
Kevin and Cat are invoking 2010. <br />
<br />
HERE WE GO.<br />
<br />
Noll - VT - MSU -yfull, solid distance, some clear piking and a larger bounce back.<br />
Are we not seeing Jay on beam? If so, why?<br />
<br />
A hit for Jay. Good thing we're seeing all this standing around.<br />
<br />
Jay 9.750. Not ideal but they can deal with it.<br />
<br />
Vaculik - BB -solid switch to split 1/4 - smooth loso series, no check - very very short on aerial, great save but a significant wobble - falls on side somi. Nervy nervy nervy. Here we go. Dear dear dear. Side aerial to full with a hop.<br />
<br />
Four beam routines to live through remaining.<br />
<br />
Winstanley - UB - giant gienger - leg break significant, but excellent amplitude, legs together on bail, somewhat floppy in the air - small hop on tuck full. Fine, solid. <br />
<br />
Burt - VT - excellent distance on her full, hop in place, piking in the air.<br />
<br />
Rogers - BB - tentative on aerial but fine, no check - solid on switch half to beat jump - hits bhs 1/1 - secure loso series, no trouble - a couple small bend adjustments here and there but coming through with a big routine - hop forward on 1.5. One down, three to go.<br />
<br />
y 1/1 on - pike - from Sedgewick for MSU, very low chest and step forward.<br />
<br />
OSU with opening 9.700s. Not great either.<br />
<br />
Babalis - BB - front aerial to loso - slow connection and a LARGE wobble, bends at the wasit to adjust - solid switch - check on full turn - dear dear - bend adjustment on kickover front - stick on punch front full - they'll have to count it - <br />
<br />
Radermacher - FX - front double full to layout - good legs, small bounce forward - short of split in dance elements - better control on 2.5 - clean front full to tuck. A couple small control and split issues, but fine. Usable. <br />
<br />
9.675 for Babalis. That will have to count. <br />
<br />
Deans - VT - very piked on layout full and a leg break - hop back.<br />
<br />
Raineri - UB - missed her handstand after her jaeger - good control on her DLO 1/1 landing, some piking as often happens - great difficulty including a healy(?) early in the routine - <br />
<br />
Box - BB - Broussard got 9.900. Huge for them. One more to get through to stay alive.Solid on tuck jum full this time. check on loso series but OK - switch to straddle, better completion of 180 on the switch - small bend adjustment on walkover - Phil basically had a relief embolism after she hit her last acro - sticks 1.5. They're still in it. <br />
<br />
When you're relieved by a beam 9.6. Georgia breaks 49 on beam. Somehow. <br />
<br />
Tanya is on number duty? <br />
McMillan - FX - front 2/1 with a slide forward - 1.5 to layout, good leg form, but another uncontrolled landing that will probably take her out of the vital 9.9s - good 180 finish on split and straddle - punch rudi, also a small shuffle back but smaller than the others.<br />
<br />
Oregon State goes 49.000 on floor. Georgia is winning after 1. Mission accomplished for Georgia? <br />
<br />
<b>After 1: Georgia 49.025, Oregon State 49.000, George Washington 48.825, Michigan State 48.575</b><br />
<br />
Giant double back from McKellar for Towson. Great height. <br />
<br />
All of those regionals that are supposed to start in 20 minutes need to take a cue from Athens and start late accordingly. Sorry, other regionals.<br />
<br />
Both Georgia and Oregon State are currently under their RQSs, but by about the same amount, so Georgia retains the edge there, and is now already done with beam, so that's a solid sign for Georgia. Pressure on Oregon State to pick up some tenths on vault now.<br />
<br />
We'll see what Arizona can do on floor now. Not a strong event for them usually, but there's room to pick up ground on OSU after that 49.000.<br />
<br />
Rotation two here. Savona goes 9.850 on bars.<br />
<br />
Ricci - VT - highish on yfull - does pike rather a lot - hop forward. 9.700. <br />
<br />
Cindric - FX - She's in instead of Edwards? - slides back on double pike - good amplitude and position on wolf and split - more secure on double pike, chest just a bit low - splits are the highlight of the routine - 1.5 to layout, slightly whipped around, but fine. 9.750<br />
<br />
Mermelstein - good switch and straddle 1/4, solid - step back on three series to loso, avoids wobble. 1.5 hop forward. <br />
<br />
9.875 for Hambrick. <br />
<br />
Wyrick - UB - great finish position on full turn - does well to hold it - flatter on tkatchev - solid vertical on bail, feet slightly imprecise - whippy DLO with a step back.<br />
<br />
Vault scores tight today. Not good for OSU so far.<br />
<br />
Jimenez - VT - full - off line and a larger step back - some form on the table.<br />
<br />
Priessman - UB - solid first hs - high tatchev into pak - eg break on pak, usual size - hitting hs - DLO is sort of a pike-open dismount - hop in place. One of her good ones.<br />
<br />
Mattson - FX - Tabitha is getting very Pac-12 with this floor lineup today - solid landing on double pike chest slightly down - short and rushed on that wolf - 1.5 to layout, whipped around also - short on double tuck with a lunge forward.<br />
<br />
LSU nailing bars, moving out ahead early. <br />
<br />
48.900 for OSU on vault. Also not quite what was called for.<br />
<br />
Pfeiler - BB - solid loso series - good extension on that switch - hits switch side - sticks gainer full. <br />
<br />
Low score from Zamardi for LSU, but it doesn't matter for the rotation score. 49.300. Large lead.<br />
<br />
Watkins - UB - I'll be sure to mention her because I was scolded for not mentioning her in the preview - short onopening hs - excerllent gienger - high and leg together - loses her back in the bail, quite loose - whips the DLO a bit but a stick.<br />
<br />
Arizona needs to get out of the 9.7s on floor to try to catch OSU. Howard can help. solid landing on double pike, a bit forward, but not much chest down - hits her wolf - solid double tuck as well, they've been sliding early to go down into those 9.7s. lay to front full - dances out of it. 9.850.<br />
<br />
Didn't Cat use this same music? Remembering incorrectly?<br />
<br />
Sisler needs 9.850 on floor to match what Oregon State did on floor.<br />
Sisler - FX - great punch rudi to loso, excellent amplitude and legs together - hits her split elements - sticks a double pike, chest down - 2/1 to front tuck, crossed legs in twisting but she goes 9.875. 49.025 for Arizona. Arizona is in this to challenge OSU. But it still looks like they'll both need some help so far. <br />
<br />
Intros underway in Iowa. <br />
<br />
Stover finishing things out on floor - slightly awkward step on 2.5, crossover - front full to pike - good secure landing on rudi, also some legs crossed on all her twisting. <br />
<br />
These lengthy intros all over the place are making me weep for my schedule.<br />
I like how the Alabama link didn't even appear until they were reading to start the broadcast. They're like, "SHUT UP PEOPLE."<br />
<br />
Ashley Miles alert.<br />
<br />
Georgia can pull away on floor in this one with something in the 49.3s, gain some distance over OSU and Arizona. <br />
<br />
Minneapolis winning the "come on, stream" award for this session of start times.<br />
<br />
THINGS ARE HAPPENING.<br />
<br />
Macadaeg is on beam, obviously we have to pay attention to that first. Supercedes everything else. small check on full turn AGAIN. GIRL. Great switch and switch ha;f - walkover to straddle is hit. Solid loso series - sticks gainer full. We're OK<br />
<br />
Cal getting underway on beam - Seilnacht hits los series - small check on dance - switch is fine - a hit down for Cal.<br />
<br />
Near stick on a yhalf for Mattson. 9.750. <br />
<br />
Oh hey. beam feed at Iowa. We ca see exactly nothing. Babalis hitting her splits - stumbles forward a bit here - following a 9.850 from Reynolds. FALLS on double pike. Oh. Georgia.<br />
<br />
Cannamela on beam - a couple checks.<br />
Also Owens on beam for Cal, looked like a big bend at the waist on her series but stayed on - hop back on dismount. <br />
<br />
McConkey - BB - Nebraska - leg form on series but hits securely -check on full turn - sticks 1.5. One hit.<br />
<br />
ROGERS IS DOING FLOOR - hits double arabian - 1.5 to layout is fine, whipped around a little but hit - bounces back on double pike and a little locked legged but she got through it for 9.800. <br />
<br />
AHHHH. You know that thing where you get so overwhelmed that you just stop everything? That happened for a second.<br />
<br />
Schweihofer is on beam for Nebraska - solid loso series - wobble on some dance elements - hits side aerial -<br />
<br />
Gnat on beam for LSU - doing Gnat thigns - solid split and straddle - LARGE break on her loso series - they already have a lower score from Caanemla so will still have to count this - they have enough of a lead that it's fine. And should still be an OK score.<br />
<br />
Box hits floor for 9.850. Just Jay to get through to avoid counting the fall.<br />
<br />
Denver needs to drop a beam 9.525 from Hammen now.<br />
<br />
Cal is currently counting a 9725 on beam. Getting through but opening the door.<br />
<br />
Jay hits full out - the routine Georgia needed from her - 9.900. 49.300 for Georgia on floor - starting to pull away from the slight-under-196 pace from Arizona and OSU.<br />
<br />
Saw a couple checks in this beam routine from Laeng but nothing major.<br />
<br />
Richardson - BB - Cal -strong secure loso series - need a big hit from her to minimize some slight damage here - nothing devastating but they've given away a bit. Hop back on doubel tuck. Solid. What they needed. Cal is through beam and very much in this.<br />
<br />
Zoe Draghi's beam score range was 9.600-9.900. Huh?<br />
<br />
Blanske hits switch side - slightly crooked - sticks 2/1.<br />
<br />
DENVER BEAM ALERT. Counting a 9.5. Advantage Minnesota. <br />
<br />
Mable FX - giant straddles, excellent finish and amplitude as always - NOOOO FAALLLL.<br />
<br />
Arkansas counting a 9.725 on floor, Nebraska getting through beam.<br />
<br />
Nebraska goes 49.125 on beam. Crucial early hit. Pressure on Arkansas.<br />
<br />
Mable still got a 9.400 on floor, even with the fall. Minnesota's 48.900 is lower than they needed They're still OK because Denver is struggling on beam. But do we need Minnesota to make it as a team now that Mable fell?<br />
<br />
Cal 48.900 on beam. Boise State 48.850 on floor. West Virginia 48.725 on bars. Worse for Boise State than it is for Cal because Boise State still has to do beam.<br />
<br />
LSU and Georgia in control by multiple tenths in Athens so far.<br />
<br />
Denver relatively disastrous 48.525 on beam. Minnesota's 48.900 on floor looking better. We knew Minnesota needed a lead after this rotation, so even though the scores for both are down, it's still a lead.<br />
<br />
Wellick's 9.850 saves Arkansas's floor a little, but Nebraska goes 49.125 on beam to Arkansas 49.000 on floor, so advantage Nebraska. <br />
<br />
Vaculik is back on vault for Georgia - one of her good-control landings, just a hop in place, still piking but perhaps not as less.<br />
<br />
9.850 on bars for Khamedoost helps OSU.<br />
<br />
Boise State goes to vault now, needs to gain some. <br />
<br />
McNeer - UB - small step back on DLO.<br />
<br />
handspring pike 1/2 from Bir for Boise State, good amplitude, not a ton of distance, small hop.<br />
<br />
Beers - UB - solid pak small leg break - larger lunge back on double front - <br />
<br />
McKenna Singley falls on bars for OSU. Critical routines from Jacobsen and McMillan coming now to keep OSU in it. <br />
<br />
Collantes large hop back on DLO.<br />
<br />
Very nice splits and wolf from Hyland on floor for Kentucky.<br />
<br />
Baker just stuck her double front. Bailey sticks full out?<br />
<br />
Step back for Ali Jackson bars dismount, otherwise solid.<br />
<br />
Jacobsen sticks double front with a swim<br />
<br />
Ashley Miles is NOT calling that an arabian.<br />
<br />
Jetter - UB - hits Ray - solid hs - clean legs on bail and vertical - step forward on double front - solid hit - one of her good dismounts.<br />
<br />
Lehrmann just nailed bars. Lots of hits going around right now.<br />
<br />
48.975 on bars for OSU. Not helping. 49.275 for Georgia on vault.<br />
<br />
Winston - UB - gigantic Ray as always - a tight handstand in there - beautiful pak - small hop in place on DLO. Great.<br />
<br />
Capps - UB - hits tkatchev - precise hs - a little floppy in that bail but ends in vertical - smooth in hs - sticks-ish her dismount, leans back so far in her salute that she basically takes a step - so I would call that not a stick.<br />
<br />
Caquatto - Ub - just a touch close on Ray - vertical on that hs, very precise on those - step back on DLO. <br />
<br />
Scaman - UB - strong jaeger - nice bail, very tight body position and vertical - a borderline final hs - step back on dismount.<br />
<br />
Brannan sticks DLO.<br />
<br />
Yikes, Arkansas counting a 9.6 on vault. This is slipping away quickly. Big advantage to Nebraska. <br />
<br />
Kmieciak hitting obviously - staggered stick on tuck full - scores going massive, Oklahoma pulling away in the first rotation as expected.<br />
<br />
I only saw this dismount on McMurtry's bars. I LOVE her routine this way. Stuck it obviously. <br />
<br />
Oh god, and now Michigan is going to start?!??<br />
Wofford excellent on jaeger obviously - perfect legs on bail - sticks dismount - great.<br />
<br />
Waiting on scores for Florida on bars and Minnesota on vault. And obviously for Alabama's regional as well.<br />
<br />
LSU and Georgia with enough of a lead that it will just take 5 for 6 hits the rest of the way to advance.<br />
<br />
Another 9.950 for Wofford. What does a girl have to do?<br />
<br />
Arkansas just absolutely fell apart on vault. VAULT. 48.375. Basically Nebraska will just have to vaguely hit the remaining three events. <br />
<br />
Minnesota bars judges had a very "and none for Florida, bye" rotation. <br />
Minnesota 49.175 on vault is higher than Florida's bars score. <br />
<br />
Arkansas currently behind Kent State.<br />
<br />
WE HAVE SCORES IN ALABAMA. WE HAVE SCORES IN ALABAMA.<br />
<br />
Kentucky goes 49.125 on floor. Boise State is down to the 48s on both vault and floor. Need a huge bars number now. Cal 48.900 on beam is behind Kentucky, but it's also beam. <br />
<br />
Stanford floor. Michigan beam. Get ready.<br />
<br />
Hee hee. Your last name is Butts.<br />
<br />
DEAR GOD NO. Olivia Karas has fallen on beam. Michigan has five routines to get through now.<br />
Opening hit for Frowein.<br />
<br />
Florida to beam/ Kennedy Baker - walkover to bhs is hit - straddle to a tight split 1/2 - side aerial to stuck full. <br />
<br />
McNeer has fallen for Alabama on beam! The beam fall monster arises. <br />
Dana Duckworth is going to have a lot of facial expressions about this.<br />
<br />
Frowein 9.700 for Stanford.<br />
Charlie Owens 9.700 on floor. <br />
<br />
Why have we only see about half a routine so far in Michigan?<br />
<br />
brannan hits loso series - splits look fine - long break before kickover front - wobbles but hits - sticks dismount - <br />
Small ish slide back from Rice on double pike - half to full is fine, crossover step -<br />
<br />
Brown - BB -aerial to bhs is very solid - strong splits - hits side somi - sticks 2/1. Got that one down. <br />
<br />
Kentyucky just had a disastrous fall on vault from Stuart. Can't afford her to be compromised for the next two rotations.<br />
<br />
Michigan has Marinez up on beam now - lovely splits - nails side aerial - dismounts to her KNEES. Beam disaster for Michigan. <br />
<br />
Aja Sims step forward on her double back. Alabama getting through with hits now.<br />
McMurtry sticks 2/1, going after a fall from Boren.<br />
<br />
Lindsay Williams on beam for Michigan now. Solid on her acro<br />
<br />
Winston - BB - good stplit and straddle 1/2 - aerial to bhs, slow combo but no wobble.<br />
<br />
Williams hits beam to try to save the meet for Michigan.<br />
<br />
Sloan on beam now, must hit position. Very smooth walkover to beat jump - bend correction on bhs loso series but much better than it has been - switch and split are fine - pretty full turn - solid 2/1 landing. Florida survives.<br />
<br />
TA Williams - FX - massive straddle elements - strong double pike<br />
Artz on beam - hits walkover to bhs, tentative and slower in connection but hit - bringing the routine Michigan needs - small hop forward on dismount. Is it too late?<br />
<br />
Guerrero - BB - hits two loso series - large hop forward on 1.5. Got through. <br />
<br />
Spector just sat her double arabian for Stanford. Michigan may not be out of this. Must get the big final hits from Artz and Chiarelli.<br />
<br />
Draghi is a bit short on double back, step forward - layout to high full, slide forward - good hit - <br />
Wobble from Chiarellu on loso series but stays on - strong side aerial - hop back on double back. <br />
<br />
Nina MCGee STICKS DLO - because of course she does - front full to layout, also stuck - sontrolled step back on double pike. Excellent routine, hugely important score for Denver -<br />
<br />
Price - FX -huge DLO sisters right now - hers is a bit lower than McGee's with a step forward - excellent dance elements, gets her amplitude into those straddles - solid on front lay to front full - easy peasy double back - keeping Stanford in control. Michigan will have work to do.<br />
<br />
Penn State is in this - 49.025 on bars. <br />
<br />
9.900 for Price on floor. They'll be counting the 9.700 for Frowein and 9.675 for Chuang, which is why Michigan still has hope. Needs a big 9.950 floor rotation from Karas, Artz, and Chiarelli.<br />
<br />
Ewing goes 9.975 on vault for LSU. Didn't see it because as long as Georgia hits a few more bars routines, this thing is over.<br />
<br />
Still waiting on one more floor score for Cal, but should be ahead of Kentucky and BSU once we get it. <br />
<br />
Oklahoma and Nebraska well in control of the Iowa regional. Alabama avoided counting that fall, in solid shape once again. <br />
<br />
9.950 on bars for Brandie Jay. That will do. <br />
<br />
Denver with a vital 49.250 on floor. Still a touch behid Missouri and Minnesota for the second spot, but Denver has done beam and the others have not. This should be a great one. Minnesota Missouri and Denver all in it for this second spot. Florida with not a huge lead, but beam and bars are done, so they should sail smoothly unless something weird happens.<br />
<br />
Penn State 49.025, Stanford 48.975, Michigan 48.500.<br />
<br />
AND WE HAVE OUR FIRST QUALIFIERS. LSU and Georgia advance with 197.300 and 196.850 respectively.<br />
<br />
Our AAers will be Lisa Burt of Michigan State and Maddie Gardiner of Oregon State. An upset there as Lisa Burt gets an AA spot over the favored GWU duo of Winstanley and Drouin-Allaire. <br />
<br />
RISA PEREZ AND LEXI MILLS WILL DO BEAM AT NATIONALS.<br />
<br />
Huge bars rotation upcoming for Boise State to try to get back in this thing.Bennion sticks a DLO for 9.850. That will work.<br />
<br />
Minnesota to bars now - solid double back with a step.<br />
<br />
Rice - VT - large bounce back on full -<br />
<br />
Opening fall from penn State on beam.<br />
Seilnacht with a large bound forward on her layout 1/2.<br />
<br />
Chuang - VT - better chest position that earlier - still a lot of pike, but controlled, small hop.<br />
<br />
Richarson - VT - Cal - GIANT tsuk - hop back. <br />
Big tuck full for Stockwell - lean to hold stick<br />
<br />
Willaims - VT - bounds a MILLION miles out of her 1.5. Nooooooooooo<br />
Jacobsen on bars for Boise State now - lovely leg form on piked jaerger - hs are strong - sticks DLO but bends forward to hold the stick.<br />
<br />
DID I MISS EBEE'S VAULT??? REGIONAL WHY DO YOU DO THIS TO ME????<br />
<br />
It's a 48.800 for Stanford on vault. 48.875 for Cal on vault. Neither will enjoy those scores.<br />
<br />
Boise State moves ahead of Cal by .075. Both have one rotation left, but it's bars for Cal and beam for Boise State. Keep an eye on Ketucky as well. Definitely still in this. <br />
<br />
Minnesota ahead of Denver by the same margin/ Minnesota has beam and Denver has bars. Keep an eye on Missouri. Definitely still in this. TWIN MEETS.<br />
<br />
Eastern Michigan still in it to act as spoilers in Ann Arbor. Penn State counting a fall o beam ow. <br />
<br />
49.125 isn't what Auburn would have chosen for bars, but with the mistakes so far, that's OK.<br />
<br />
Laura Mitchell on beam for BGSU - loverly loso series - switch and back tuck are very solid - slightly tentative in side aerial to split but hit - strong side somi - hits full turn - hop in place on 2/1 dismount. Wonderful routine. <br />
Taylor Allex on floor - strong doubel arabian - hits 2.5 to front full small hop - <br />
<br />
Eastern Michigan staying around 9.800s on floor, which is enough to keep pace right now.<br />
<br />
Eastern Michigan goes 49.075 on floor after a 9.900 for Slocum. Just .050 behind AUBURN.<br />
<br />
Crucial events coming up: Minnesota to beam, Missouri to bars. Boise State to beam, Kentucky to bars. Michigan to floor, Auburn to beam. Oklahoma and Nebraska are continuing to have this thing. <br />
<br />
Clean from McLaughlin on floor, good legs in twists. Normal. <br />
<br />
Coca overbalances a handstand on her bail on bars - fall for Kentucky to start. <br />
A check for Means on beam but nothing major - sticks gainer full - solid.<br />
<br />
Nice splits from Ciara Gardner on beam - solid on loso series - small hop on gainer full.<br />
<br />
Fassbender and McLaughlin on floor for Florida today.<br />
<br />
Stuart - UB - Kentucky - short handstands and on the bail - big DLO 1/1, hop back.<br />
<br />
Collantes strong on side aerial - near-stick on 1.5, slide to the side. Brannan falls on floor????<br />
So good to have Waltz back for Kentucky. Sticks double back.<br />
<br />
Koshinski near-sticks a 1.5 on vault, small step back.<br />
<br />
Lowish early beam scores for Minnesota- need some Mable and some Nordquist -<br />
<br />
Muhammad's vault amplitude is crazy.<br />
<br />
Katie Bailey hits double arabian -<br />
Hyland - Ub - good full turn - legs together on gienger, solid amplitude - clean vertical on bail - sticks tuck full - very pretty.<br />
<br />
Stuck full for Eastern Michigan!<br />
Dukes - Ashley tells us she hit her foot on her tkatchev - sticks DLO.<br />
<br />
Winston and Sloan on floor now - Sloan nails her final pass - Winston beautiful legs together on eveything.<br />
<br />
Mable - BB - huge routine -there's a 9.6 that needs to be dropped - nailed her loso series, beautiful - walkover to beat jump is smooth - switch and straddle 1/4 - side aerial to excellent full - wonderful.<br />
<br />
Taylor Allex just near-stuck a 1.5.<br />
<br />
Baker - FX - short on double pike with a lunge forward, which is weird - final pass is solid.<br />
Lindsay Williams came in very short on a layout - whips it around but lands squatty and then another stumble out of double tuck - what is happening Michigan? <br />
<br />
Nordquist - BB - Side aerial to loo is excellent - good switch side, a bit of a swim to balance it - Kathy Johnson full turn, exquisite - switch 1/2 strong - side aerial to stuck full - better than that time she got a 10.<br />
<br />
Mable and Nordquist nail beam to put the pressure on Denver and Missouri. <br />
<br />
Florida just OK today but doing well enough - Caquatto is hitting -<br />
<br />
Alabama is getting ALL THE SCORES on floor, pulling away comfortably.<br />
Hit floor from Brianna Brown, some low chest but what the team desperately needed.<br />
<br />
48.925 for Boise State on beam. Final 195.9750. <br />
<br />
Cal needs 49.025 on bars to pass Boise State. Kentucky would need 49.225 on beam to do the same. <br />
Minnesota finishes 196.175. Denver needs 49.250 on bars to pass. Missouri needs 49.325 on beam.<br />
<br />
Auburn working against a beam mistake in the fina couple spots. Michigan needs some big 9.9s from the big three on floor now.<br />
<br />
I would say advantage Cal there. Minnesota and Denver is going to be CLOSE. Nicole Artz just hit a critical routine for 9.875 following a 9.850 for Karas. Not qwhat they want, but they're a Chiarelli hit away from being in this.<br />
<br />
Atkinson on beam to save Auburn's beam rotation, phew, but three counting 9.7s doesn't help. Everyone struggling a little in this regional except EMU. <br />
<br />
Chiarelli's 1.5 to layout to front is fab - solid psoitions on switch side to popa - this camera angle emphasized the indistinct finishing position, though.Sticks double pike, slightly low chest. 9.900.<br />
<br />
Michigan is in 4th after two. Still definitely in striking distance, but I said in the preview that Michigan NEEDED a lead after three rotations. That hasn't so much happened.<br />
<br />
Cal on bars now. Good tkatchev to overshoot - small step on DLO from Richardson. 9.775. That's just short of pace but an OK start. Kentcuky goes 9.850 in first beam routine. Exactly what was needed.<br />
<br />
9.700 on bars for Denver doesn't help too much int he first spot. <br />
Menhinick next - hits her shap but very short on a few handstands - step forward on DLO. Takara with a stick for Cal.<br />
<br />
9.850 for Takara. 9.625 for Menhinick.<br />
Seilnacht falls on bars! <br />
This is emotionally draining!<br />
<br />
Addison of Denver comes in a bit short on her DLO off bars with a hop forward. Denver not getting the routines to pass Minnesota so far. Missouri getting stuck in the 9.7s early as well. Great dismount stick from Miller. <br />
<br />
Stuart looking solid on beam so far - sticks 1.5. They must drop Roemmele's 96, and that will help.<br />
<br />
Howe UB - strong tkatchev - good handstands - smal leg break on pak - good finish position on full turn and a stuck double tuck - nice -<br />
<br />
9.875 for Howe. Two routines left to get this thing. Waltz on beam - three series to loso is excellent. Switch to back tuck is strong - sticks 1.5. Kentucky NAILING beam so far you guys. <br />
<br />
Williams on UB - shap is strong - bail is wonderfully vertical - legs together - STICKS tuck full. Kentucky and Cal both nailing this one so well. Alabama closes.<br />
<br />
Denver will not pass Minnesota.<br />
<br />
Cal needs a hit from Sternberg - good toe on - hits tkatchev - short on next handstand - hits bail - some short hs but otherwise fine - step back on double tuck - that will be enough to pass Boise State - let's watch Kentucky.<br />
<br />
Kentucky cannot pass Cal. A 195.925 will qualify Cal to nationals.<br />
<br />
Missouri cannot pass Minnesota now. It will be Cal and Minnesota going through.<br />
<br />
Fantastick finish from Hyland for Kentucky, and a great beam rotation for Kentcuky, just left too much work to do after bars.<br />
<br />
LSU, GEORGIA, FLORIDA, MINNESOTA, ALABAMA, CAL, OKLAHOMA, NEBRASKA. Those are our qualifiers so far.<br />
<br />
Nina McGee and Morgan Porter qualify as AAers - Meaghan Sievers goes for vault.<br />
<br />
Stanford had a fall from D McNair on bars, but everyone else is getting 9.9s. Making it tough on a Michigan team that didn't get the necessary vault scores. Lots of 9.850s. No big 9.950 for Karas.<br />
<br />
We're not really seeing the right routines in this Michigan regional.<br />
<br />
Stanford 49.500 on bars. 9.975 for Price. Stanford WELL ahead of Michigan now. Stanford going to beam in the next rotation.<br />
<br />
Introductions about to get started in our final regional in Utah.<br />
<br />
Auburn had a bit of a tepid beam and will need to pull this thing together on floor to stay ahead of Michigan. The beam fall is the biggest issue for Michigan in this meet, obviously, but just as important have been the unexpected 49.1s on vault and floor. Beam is beam, but those scores should have been much higher.<br />
<br />
And of course, there's still Eastern Michigan.<br />
<br />
Short break before one more big push to the conclusion of this one and to the SLC regional, which really short be straightforward, but it's the last one so let's hope it's not.<br />
<br />
UNH has been out of this one, but sadly did not have the beam rotation the early season led us to expect.<br />
<br />
Stanford will finish during this rotation, setting the standard that Auburn, Michigan, and EMU? will be chasing. <br />
<br />
Just two meets left to follow. It's so luxurious and calm. I'm going to have the beam feed open for the Utah meet because that UCLA beam rotation will dictate where a lot of this is going.<br />
<br />
No team has had a statement floor score so far in the Michigan regional, so if Auburn can go 49.300ish, that would make things look much smoother heading to vault. <br />
<br />
Touch warmup over in Utah.<br />
<br />
Gerber - BB - good wolf turn - solid walkover to beat jump - smooth loso series - hit.<br />
N McNair on beam - good full turn - precise side aerial - very good 180 on dance elements but a bend forward adjustment after her straddle which will take the score down - small hop on 1.5. 9.850 in spite of the rather distinct wobble. <br />
<br />
Vault fall for Penn State.<br />
9.875 on bars for Rubin of EMU - very precise pak and handstands - <br />
<br />
Rice - BB - smooth full turn - a bit squatty on kickover front but secure -<br />
Meraz - BB - both hit simultaneous loso series - good switch half and straddle 1/4 - hop forward on 1.5.<br />
<br />
Eastern Michigan is continuing to bring it on bars, buty Auburn is getting those early floor 9.8s. Great DLO front Rott. Travels on the stag out of her middle pass but good form. Slight lack of control on final pass but slight. <br />
Shapiro - BB - very strong loso series, secure - wonderful split positions - wobble on full turn - small adjustment on dismount. Three solid hits so far for UCLA on beam. <br />
<br />
Valentin - UB - EMU - quiver in the legs on her full turn - good bail, legs together - tkatchev is slightly flat but fine - hop forward on full out.<br />
<br />
EMU goes 49.200 on bars. Nothing wrong with that. Well ahead of Michigan, but beam left.<br />
<br />
Price - BB - strong walkover - bhs lo 2ft is secure, bhs legs could be more extended - fine full turn - great splits - short on double pike dismount, stagger forward - <br />
<br />
Stanford cruising through beam to a solid total based on what the other teams have done today. Auburn getting the necessary floor scores.<br />
<br />
Beam judging has been quite tight on UCLA but they're getting hits.<br />
<br />
Chuang - BB - solid loso series - good switch and stag - larger wobble on side aerial - sticks gainer full, legs apart. <br />
<br />
Stanford and Auburn are conspiring to make it near-impossible for Michigan at this point.<br />
<br />
Sophina has a break on her kickover front but stays on - <br />
<br />
UCLA not doing well on a crucial event so far. Well, not that. Doing well but not getting big scores. Some pressure on.<br />
Francis - BB lovely walkover to bhs but with that slight bed adjustment she has been doing - switch and split are excellent - y spin is solid - dismount: stuck and good chest position this time as well - strong one, will finally bring UCLA into the 9.9s.<br />
<br />
We've seen the last second of most of the Auburn beam routines, but they look good?<br />
<br />
196.525 final for Stanford. Michigan would need a 49.725 to catch. So...no. Auburn should go ahead of Stanford with a normal vault rotation. EMU would need magical beam to do it. 49.375 is the beam score it would take EMU to go ahead of Stanford. <br />
<br />
Washington will be ahead of UCLA after one rotation.<br />
<br />
Washington 49.200, UCLA 49.050. Well now. Well.<br />
<br />
I love when meets show highlights of the previous rotation, and they're seriously the worst skills anyone did in the whole rotation.<br />
<br />
Good vault from Krippner for Auburn - that's on track.<br />
<br />
Christopherson - UB - nice tkatchev - clean bail - holds the full turn position, slow - sticks double back.<br />
<br />
I guess a Utah gymnast finished, because my ears just broke.<br />
If it helps, Michigan is destroying this bars rotation.Even though it doesn't.<br />
<br />
Lewis - UB - solid tkatchev - hits vertical in that bail - sticks DLO - strong.<br />
Demers sticks yfull, more the score Auburn needed -<br />
<br />
Judges going to work for Michigan. 9.950 for Williams. <br />
<br />
Atkinson needs a 9.850 on vault to tie Stanford. 9.875 to go ahead.<br />
She gets 9.850. Auburn and Stanford are tied.<br />
<br />
Karas - UB - great pak, high and legs together - sticks DLO - the best bars routine I've ever seen her do. 9.950. Really going to work. Could Michigan do this thing, you guys? <br />
<br />
ALL THE 9.950s. Same for Brown. Can't even. <br />
<br />
YOU GUYS. If Artz gets a 10.00, Michigan will tie Auburn and Stanford. <br />
<br />
Artz - UB - fantastic piked jaerger to overshoot - hitting handstands - very precise - sticks DLO. This could do it the way these scores have been going. <br />
Nope. 9.950 for Artz. Michigan will come in .050 low. <br />
<br />
Auburn and Stanford will advance, unless EMU goes REALLY crazy here. The judges tried, Michigan, the judges tried, but they just couldn't. Michigan really did nail that bars rotation.<br />
<br />
Judging by the cheers I heard during the during Utah's bars rotation, they're getting an a million, which they basically are.<br />
<br />
EMU solid on beam, but it won't be enough. Amazing showing, but it will be 4th place for Eastern Michigan after all. <br />
<br />
Don't worry, there will just be 1500 individual floor qualifiers from the Michigan regionals - Chiarelli, Slocum, Tsang, and Offutt, all for floor. <br />
<br />
Washington 49.000 on vault. UCLA needs 49.175 on floor to go ahead. Which is...easy? Right?<br />
<br />
Interesting rotation coming up. Utah to AHHHBEAM and UCLA to floor, where a huge score is pretty necessary after that meh beam number.<br />
<br />
This woman on the floor feed has been showing the Utah U for like 78 hours.<br />
"Show your school's hand sign." Hmmm, which school might you be talking about.<br />
<br />
OK here we go now.<br />
<br />
Partyka - BB - split jump and straddle 1/4, bith short of 180, which is very clear from this camera angle - solid side aerial - hits loso series no wobble - two switches series looks OK - sitckish, hop together on 1.5. Solid start. I see a judge giving 9.950, with those opening leaps. LOOOL.The rest go 9.850, which is about right.<br />
Ohashi - FX - very low chest on final double pike but looked like a solid hit.<br />
<br />
Delaney - BB -minor check on loso series - foot adjustment on standing loso but good control - near-stick and then step salute on gainer full - (do we say that's a stick? Probably.) Solid. Good one for her. Less tentative than sometimes. <br />
<br />
Good control on opening double tuck from Preston - very very squatty on double pike - that will bring the score down a bit.<br />
<br />
Hughes - BB - wobble on loso series but stays on - could be more extended in the legs in bhs skills - solid on split jump and split 3/4 - side aerial to stuck full. They're getting the job done on beam so far. Small errors from all, but they can afford small errors today.<br />
<br />
Francis - FX - whip through to double back, small slide this time but chest position was better - keeps control on that 2.5, though that step always does look a little jarring - chest down on double pike but secure.<br />
<br />
Slight balance swim from Lopez on opening dance combo, but slight - solid loso series - good full turn - secure kickover front - wobble on straddle 1/2, leg goes up, straddle position did look very nice - strong 2/1 dismount, good direction and stuck. <br />
<br />
No Sophina on floor again. She didn't warm up floor yesterday. Honest's middle pass a bit lacking in control, but a minor adjustment - strong landing on double tuck, good security.<br />
<br />
Rowe - BB - secure on early splits - hits loso series, but those legs in those bhs are giving me the sweats - strong on kickover front - hop forward on 1.5. They have 5 usable hits. Job basically done for Utah at this point.<br />
<br />
Oh buffering during the phone portion of Cipra's floor. What a shame....<br />
<br />
Very strong middle pass - and I do love the choreo before the final pass, once the phone part ends - very squatty on double pike. She has suddenly been struggling with that dismount at the end of the year.<br />
<br />
Stover going on beam, good situation for her coming back after missing some time in a no-pressure scenario - a bit of an adjustment bend after a split jump, which is unlike her, but otherwise it's strong. Hop back on gainer full.<br />
<br />
UCLA will be ahead of Washington after this rotation but can get a real cushion with a big Bynum hit. Great DLO, chest up and controlled, that skill gets better and better - secure on the double tuck side pass as well - that split still kills me, but the rest has been quite nice - double back. Should be their best score.<br />
<br />
49.400 on floor for UCLA. <br />
<b>Halfway: Utah 98.575, UCLA 98.450, Washington 98.200, Southern Utah 97.775, Illinois 97.550, Utah State 97.400</b><br />
<br />
About how it seemed like this would play out, though UCLA is surely closer to Washington than they would have hoped after their good events and with Washington still going to the good events. UCLA still needs one of those days when Hall's vault doesn't scare us all for out lives.<br />
<br />
Rotation Lauren Rice with UCLA was really a perfect decision, whoever did that...well done. <br />
<br />
UCLA to vault, Washington to bars, Utah State to beam, Illinois to floor.<br />
We're getting close to being done! Almost there!<br />
<br />
Strong distance from Cipra on vault, a bit squatty on the landing and the usual bounce back.<br />
The small speck that I assume is Goings is hitting bars, step back on tuck full. Must have missed something. 9.6s. <br />
<br />
A blur shot through the vaulting frame exactly horizontally and then hopped back, so that was probably fine.<br />
Lovely handstands from Burleson - a little late on giant full and close to bar on double back but strong stick.<br />
<br />
Pua squats and lunges forward on that vault, but I guess that counts as one of her good ones? <br />
<br />
nesis - UB - mucscles a bit in opening handstands - late on half turn - solid jaeger into overshoot - short hs - short on DLO with a lunge forward. A struggle one.<br />
<br />
Schaefer - UB - flat tkatchev but caught - a bit loose in the back on a few of these handstands, but hitting vertical, sticks DLO, best so far.<br />
<br />
So these UCLA vault scores aren't great. But these Washington bars scores are worse.<br />
<br />
Bynum dances forward on that arabian. Probably counts as a couple steps.<br />
Northey hits piked jaerger - good line - one short hs - totally flings out her tuck full with a step forward - that dismount is usually stronger but will take down the score a bit this time, which they could not afford.<br />
<br />
Missed Preston's vault but looks like a 9.900. There certainly was a lot of cheering. <br />
<br />
The bars judges' theme for today is NONE FOR WASHINGTON.Duranczyk finishes with a high DLO, slightly awkward landing but just a small step back.<br />
<br />
UCLA will have a .750 lead on Washington with one event to go for each, and that's probably the closest thing we have to a race here since it looks like Utah is running away with it, unless some kind of weird floor problem arises.<br />
Illinois and Southern Utah are already down in the 48s for their rotations so far.<br />
<br />
For the AA spots, Ramirez and Northey are still looking solid for the two so far. Buchanan has a couple 9.7s. Lauren Rice may also still be in this thing depending on bars.<br />
<br />
Illinois jumps ahead of Washington suddenly after a 9.950 for Leduc on floor. Sadly, Illinois still has to vault. <br />
<br />
Utah to floor, Southern Utah to bars, Washington to beam, Illinois to vault.<br />
<br />
OK, I'm getting burnst out. Is there a ff button on this meet?<br />
<br />
Phew, that insufferably lengthy 4.5-hour warmup is finally over.<br />
Rowe is on floor, Rose on beam.<br />
<br />
Rowe - FX -secure double pike - split 1.5 is mostly around - solid 2/1 to loso - 1.5 to layout with a bit of a lunge. <br />
good switch split from Rose - secure side aerial - side aerial to a loose-kneed layout full - stuck - <br />
<br />
Merrell is hitting her efficient little twisting-fest on floor.<br />
Burleson on beam - always looks like she's going to spliter into toothpicks when she lands an acro series but it's hit - a bend correction here and there - great switch and straddle 1/4, excellent extension - side aerial to full with two steps back. <br />
<br />
Lewis to floor - awkward landing on double pike, lunges back out of it and her plant leg lifts - very strong layout to front full - excellent extension in straddles - bounces back on double tuck as well. Wish we had seen the full in from her because she has the power for it.<br />
<br />
Washington getting 9.800ed on beam. Southern Utah getting 9.7ed on bars.<br />
<br />
Secure landing on opening pass from partyka - strong double tuck as well -<br />
small bend correction from Duranczyk on her series - a couple moments, but sticks her 1.5.<br />
Partyka gave up her huge score on the final pass with a pretty large bounce out.<br />
<br />
Schwab on FX now - a bit too much of a lunge back out of that double pike, uncontrolled - 1.5 to layout is pretty, but she needs to plant that back leg to make the landings look more controlled - great straddle elements - small stagger on final pass. She was nailing these passes in January. <br />
Large break for Goings on beam on her series, bends at the waist -<br />
<br />
Washington will need to drop Goings. Northey now - strong full turn - bend on straddle 3/4 - good loso series, solid - secure kickover front to beat jump - sticks 1.5. Good way to end a rotation that ultimately won't put enough pressure on UCLA, heading to bars.<br />
<br />
Hughes does Hughes things on floor it appeared, slides back on double tuck.<br />
<br />
Washington will finish 195.825.<br />
<br />
Looks like UCLA is going to need about a 48.275 on bars to get the second spot here, perhaps more depending on what SUU does on beam, so if that doesn't happen, that will be slightly embarrassing.<br />
<br />
Northey's 39.275 is in ahead of Buchanan's 39.225 in the AA for the moment. Still waiting on Ramirez and Rice to finish.<br />
<br />
Oh, we've started the last rotation? Sorry, I passed out there for a while. Utah did a good? Probably?<br />
<br />
Francis - UB - strong shap to bail combo - great ampltiude on shoot as usual, pretty good finish on full turn, hop back on double pike.<br />
<br />
Good height from Lopez on her full, medium hop back.<br />
<br />
Meraz's bail was a mess and she falls. Is the meet alive yet?<br />
<br />
Bounce back from Partyka as well. Fine, but they'll need to hone these landings for two weeks from now. Not as secure as Pac12s so far.<br />
<br />
Now Savvidou is in a bit of a pressure situation for UCLA, so this should get interesting.<br />
<br />
Good distance from Lewis, less of a step, just a minor hop.<br />
<br />
Savvidou fingertip catch on that jaeger, and then arches and overbalances a handstand - somehow stays on the bars, but this thing is getting pretty interesting now. Is UCLA having a last-ditch meltdown?<br />
<br />
OK vault from Hughes, but bounces up out of it this time. Utah's landings are as over it as we all feel right now at the end of this regionals day. <br />
<br />
Savvidou gets 9.375 after that catastrophe, which will have to count.<br />
<br />
PENG?????? LOOK WHO'S PENGING TO SAVE THE DAY! Nails bhardwaj, nails shap half, sticks DLO.<br />
<br />
Peng's first routine in forever. Casual 9.950. NBD.<br />
<br />
Utah finishes 197.125. On a normal day, we would be worried about that score. In this meet, it's basically a 199.<br />
<br />
Honest - UB - hits tkachev - WAY artches hs but hols onto it - hits straddle back - flings out tuck full as always, step back. They can probably afford it as long as Sophina hits, but christ UCLA what is this...<br />
<br />
I see a 9.750 and a 9.800 for Honest, so she somehow manages to get real scores, even when she has errors like the arched hs.<br />
<br />
Sophina gienger - Sophina legs but fine - hits bail back up to high, small slide back on tuck full dismount, one of her good-chest days. That will be enough, but not without several heart attacks and far too many uninspiring routines. Except Peng. There's always Peng.<br />
<br />
39.400 for Ramirez. But SUU is counting a fall on beam.<br />
<br />
Lauren Rice - nice Khorkina - a short handstand in there - good tuck full with a small hop forward, connected directly to Miss Val shoving her in the trunk and trying to keep her for next year. <br />
<br />
196.375 for UCLA. Uh....it's enough? So there's that? <br />
<br />
And....now that we know who's going...I'm done and broken! Thanks for staying with it and hanging in there.<br />
<br />
Final thought: Oh, Michigan. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com103tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-82496951560476146432016-04-01T13:26:00.000-07:002016-04-02T09:06:52.393-07:00Regional Championship HeadquartersTomorrow, you will all be compelled to participate in the annual gymnastics tradition that is Ironman Regionals. It's seven straight hours of frenetic gymnastics watching, multitasking-based panic attacks, third-person auditory hallucinations, spontaneous Miss Val impressions, alcoholism, narcolepsy, uncontrollable blindness spells, dislocated bladders, and ultimately acceptance, during which you will need to commandeer all adjacent devices while clinging to the pipe dream that you'll actually be paying attention at the right time when something important happens. <br />
<br />
As part of that pipe dream, I've put together my annual combined rotation schedule for all the meets, providing a rough estimate of when each team should be competing on each event for all your circling and highlighting and browser-window-prioritization needs. I allow 30 minutes per rotation, which usually ends up being close to accurate in most locations because of all the marching and the waiting and the byes. Oh god, the byes. There's always a location or two that ends up slow as molasses for no reason and gets behind schedule, but this should be a relatively close overview of the timing. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ssgkol-PJ1U/Vv2P25eAhgI/AAAAAAAABOE/l2mHrNG4OzsN1K6YshcMLJcl9N18R_HoQ/s1600/regionalsrotations.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ssgkol-PJ1U/Vv2P25eAhgI/AAAAAAAABOE/l2mHrNG4OzsN1K6YshcMLJcl9N18R_HoQ/s1600/regionalsrotations.png" /></a></div>
<br />
Yeah, Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon State are all on beam at the same time. This is well planned. 6:00-7:00 ET is going to be a hellscape. <br />
<br />
And now...the meets! Here's everything you could possible need to know. I'll add links as they become available. Teams have not been on top of it with the scoring links so far...<br />
<u><b><br />
</b></u> <u><b>2016 Regional Championships</b></u><br />
<br />
<b>4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Athens, GA Regional </b><br />
[3] LSU, [9] Georgia, [14] Oregon State, [22] Arizona, [27] George Washington, [36] Michigan State<br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/03/georgia-regional-preview.html" target="_blank">Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://www.georgiadogs.com/livestats/w-gym/2016/16ncaa-athens.htm" target="_blank">Live scores</a><br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index" target="_blank">Live stream </a><br />
Score sheet/projected lineups/RQSs:<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X8-Sw-NyNUc/Vv2cx5gBvwI/AAAAAAAABOw/Wwj2x4gNFyAuXcD-cnqcbkm_w-_zVAuLg/s1600/GA%2Bscoresheet.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X8-Sw-NyNUc/Vv2cx5gBvwI/AAAAAAAABOw/Wwj2x4gNFyAuXcD-cnqcbkm_w-_zVAuLg/s320/GA%2Bscoresheet.png" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Iowa City, IA Regional</b><br />
[1] Oklahoma, [12] Nebraska, [13] Arkansas, [19] Iowa, [30] Kent State, [35] Central Michigan<br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/03/iowa-regional-preview.html" target="_blank">Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/iowa-w-gym.html" target="_blank">Live scores</a><br />
<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529296" target="_blank">Live stream (four-event view) </a><br />
<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529120" target="_blank">Live stream (vault)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529119" target="_blank">Live stream (bars)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529121" target="_blank">Live stream (beam)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.hawkeyesports.com/collegesportslive/?media=529122" target="_blank">Live stream (floor) </a><br />
Score sheet/projected lineups/RQSs:<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hfbJ5d6GBmQ/Vv2d48hlTxI/AAAAAAAABPg/6KD0A_aeq9Qk2sCBh6RWq4X-kjFe7HjXw/s1600/IA%2BScoresheet.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hfbJ5d6GBmQ/Vv2d48hlTxI/AAAAAAAABPg/6KD0A_aeq9Qk2sCBh6RWq4X-kjFe7HjXw/s320/IA%2BScoresheet.png" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Minneapolis, MN Regional</b><br />
[2] Florida, [11] Denver, [16] Minnesota, [20] Missouri, [28] Ohio State, [31] BYU<br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/03/minnesota-regional-preview.html" target="_blank">Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://www.gophersports.com/livestats/w-gym/" target="_blank">Live scores</a><br />
<a href="http://www.gophersports.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/regional-video.html" target="_blank">Live stream</a><br />
Score sheet/projected lineups/RQSs:<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NyGxeWRUka4/Vv2chDi3fKI/AAAAAAAABOk/HOse4mrT_jo9ToACRf7UwHDnhlVt9V1OQ/s1600/MN%2BScoresheet.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NyGxeWRUka4/Vv2chDi3fKI/AAAAAAAABOk/HOse4mrT_jo9ToACRf7UwHDnhlVt9V1OQ/s320/MN%2BScoresheet.png" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Tuscaloosa, AL Regional </b><br />
[4] Alabama, [10] Cal, [15] Boise State, [21] Kentucky, [26] West Virginia, [34] Bowling Green<br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/03/alabama-regional-preview.html" target="_blank">Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://www.rolltide.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/2016-live-scoring.html" target="_blank">Live scores </a><br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index" target="_blank">Live stream</a><br />
Score sheet/projected lineups/RQSs:<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KRtd7vgIW2Y/Vv2dQt82EsI/AAAAAAAABPI/0yZIBFKyJNYzFwWCRaYUAeetaMzPQNK_g/s1600/AL%2BScoresheet.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KRtd7vgIW2Y/Vv2dQt82EsI/AAAAAAAABPI/0yZIBFKyJNYzFwWCRaYUAeetaMzPQNK_g/s320/AL%2BScoresheet.png" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Ann Arbor, MI Regional</b><br />
[6] Auburn, [7] Michigan, [18] Stanford, [24] Eastern Michigan, [25] Penn State, [33] New Hampshire<br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/03/michigan-regional-preview.html" target="_blank">Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://www.mgoblue.com/livestats/w-gym/" target="_blank">Live scores</a><br />
<a href="http://www.mgoblue.com/collegesportslive/?media=528688" target="_blank">Live stream</a><br />
Score sheet/projected lineups/RQSs:<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F7xLt5ndtr4/Vv2dB4TL4CI/AAAAAAAABO8/VVk6TnsX8Mgz2D1JaUIlG7_qHsRarfc8g/s1600/MI%2Bscoresheet.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F7xLt5ndtr4/Vv2dB4TL4CI/AAAAAAAABO8/VVk6TnsX8Mgz2D1JaUIlG7_qHsRarfc8g/s320/MI%2Bscoresheet.png" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Salt Lake City, UT Regional</b><br />
[5] Utah, [8] UCLA, [17] Washington, [23] Southern Utah, [29] Illinois, [32] Utah State <br />
<a href="http://balancebeamsituation.blogspot.com/2016/03/utah-regional-preview.html" target="_blank">Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://www.utahutes.com/sports/w-gym/spec-rel/utah-w-gym-livestats.html" target="_blank">Live scores</a><br />
<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah" target="_blank">Live stream</a><br />
<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-6" target="_blank">Live stream (vault)</a><br />
<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-4" target="_blank">Live stream (bars)</a><br />
<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-5" target="_blank">Live stream (beam)</a><br />
<a href="http://pac-12.com/live/university-utah-3" target="_blank">Live stream (floor) </a><br />
Score sheet/projected lineups/RQSs:<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vTRK44BnWEU/Vv2ddBJEOaI/AAAAAAAABPU/rX7E0GkGyxonoV5CdRJKcw11g8WVG7npw/s1600/UT%2BScoresheet.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vTRK44BnWEU/Vv2ddBJEOaI/AAAAAAAABPU/rX7E0GkGyxonoV5CdRJKcw11g8WVG7npw/s320/UT%2BScoresheet.png" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-31841262051388517352016-03-31T11:26:00.000-07:002016-03-31T11:26:31.638-07:00Michigan Regional PreviewHere it is. The big one. Are you excited? I'm excited. Ever since it became clear that Stanford's ranking would not emerge from the pitiful category before the end of the season, we've all been waiting to see which of the poor souls that bothered to get good scores all year long would suffer the punishment of being placed with Stanford. The winners are Auburn and Michigan. It's funny because the 6-7-18 regional is usually the boring one, the one where the top two teams have more than a fall of margin over anyone else, but this year, it's the one everyone is anticipating the most. Yes, I just decided which regional you're anticipating the most. It's this. The end. <br />
<br />
Of course, that means it will end up being super boring. Without a doubt. It always happens. All of the other regionals will be intensely close throughout, and then this one will be decided in the first rotation. You know it. <br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event) </b><br />
[6] Auburn (bye before bars)<br />
[7] Michigan (beam)<br />
[18] Stanford (floor)<br />
[24] Eastern Michigan (bye before floor)<br />
[25] Penn State (bars)<br />
[33] New Hampshire (vault)<br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>Pittsburgh </i>(Lindsay Offutt – AA; Tracey Pearson – AA; Miya Dotson – UB)<br />
<i>Rutgers </i>(Libby Groden – AA; Nicolette Wilson – VT; Michelle Amoresano – VT) <br />
<i>Bridgeport</i> (Brianna Comport – BB, FX; Christine Liautaud – UB; Randi Cutolo – FX)<br />
<i>West Chester</i> (Majesta Valentine – AA)<br />
<i>Cornell </i>(Kaitlin Green – BB)<br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>The fight – Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/owynHMU8YTM" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
No favorites here. There can't be because someone very capable of a 197 will miss out on nationals, and any one of these three teams could be eliminated even with a hit meet. <br />
<br />
Still, Stanford must be considered the challenger to the throne rather than the reigning monarch because of a few more clear weaknesses than the others and the lack of consistently competitive scores during the season. In spite of Stanford's definite potential to hit 197 and reputation for suddenly turning great once the elimination meets roll around, there's a reason Stanford is 18th and not 6th or 7th. The scores haven't been there the way they have for Auburn and Michigan, and Stanford really will have to put together a season-best performance to make it out of this competition. Normal won't be good enough. It has to be a Price/Hong 9.950, Rice/McNair 9.850 kind of day to pull out the 197+ score it will take to advance. <br />
<br />
Auburn and Michigan are separated by essentially nothing. Auburn is a wisp ahead of Michigan in overall RQS, while Michigan is a wisp ahead of Auburn on each specific-event RQS. That indicates that Michigan has slightly higher peaks on each event but that Auburn has put it all together in the same meet slightly more often. It's all slight. The advantage of being at home may tip the balance to Michigan, which is why (in addition to Michigan's season high being the best in the competition) I see Auburn as more vulnerable than Michigan <i>if </i>both hit their meets. Really, there should only be a tenth or two between them either way. <br />
<br />
Ergo...landings, landings, landings. On vault, for instance, Michigan has more difficulty, and the Olivia Karas grand finale has scored higher than the Caitlin Atkinson grand finale, but we have seen multiple meets this year in which Auburn has earned a very competitive vault score because of high-level landing control. Since Michigan's peak scoring potential has been higher this year, those landings are all the more important for Auburn to close any scoring potential gap. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3AiKq5n_ulI" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
For both teams, the vulnerability is beam. In fact, it has been a vulnerability for Stanford at times as this year well (but will be absolutely critical if Stanford is to stay in this), all of which is made evident by New Hampshire being ranked as the #2 beam team in this regional. Each of these top seeds has the potential for multiple 9.9s. Atkinson, Milliet, Demers, Artz, Chiarelli, Price, Hong. There's no shortage of impressive beamers in this meet, but Auburn has a tendency to throw a 9.7 or two out there early in the lineup, and Michigan has been a sudden fall-fest in the second half of the season. Beam will be the most telling indicator about whether Stanford is in this meet because secure hits from both Michigan and Auburn (in rotations one and three) would take away the primary area in which Stanford is looking to pick up tenths (in rotation five). <br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
Stanford must win bars and beam to have a shot. If Stanford's combined UB+BB score isn't multiple tenths higher than either Auburn's or Michigan's, then qualification is a near impossibility because Auburn and Michigan are deeper and stronger on vault and floor. Stanford really should win beam here. Even though there have been a few nasties this year, the 9.9 potential across the lineup is the best in the meet. It's not just Price and Hong. We've seen Chuang get 9.9s, and Nicki McNair often merits them, even if she doesn't get them in the first spot. <br />
<br />
A huge beam score is all the more important if Price keeps getting 9.900ed on vault. <br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-TQLEKI9pjI" width="560"></iframe><br />
Those "Perfect 10!" posters are basically picket signs at this point. This is the protest movement of our generation. <br />
<br />
Because of the rotation order, expect Stanford to trail early on, probably by a hefty margin. Floor and vault aren't the big scores. It's not necessarily a bad order for Stanford because they'll end on the events where they really need huge scores and will hope drunk-judging has set in by then, but there is the potential for things to get out of control early if floor looks a little too 9.700. We've seen that before, and there will be no coming back from it this time. It's in Stanford's hands whether this meet is interesting or not. It really only gets close if Stanford is having one of those meets like at UCLA, where this weird thing happened where the talent of the roster actually manifested in the performance and the scores. <br />
<br />
To keep an eye on whether season-best Stanford has shown up, I've taken each team's season-high performance (Michigan's 197.425, Stanford's 197.400, and Auburn's 197.325) and used the event scores from those meets to tell us roughly what kind of pace teams will want to be on rotation-by-rotation if they're going to repeat those season-best performances. It's the marker of where Stanford needs to be with respect to Michigan and Auburn (and vice versa) in order to make this meet a thing. <br />
<br />
Rotation 1: Michigan 49.450, Stanford 49.250, Auburn BYE<br />
Rotation 2: Stanford 98.500, Michigan 49.450, Auburn 49.350<br />
Rotation 3: Michigan 98.775, Auburn 98.650, Stanford 98.500<br />
Rotation 4: Michigan 148.075, Stanford 148.025, Auburn 98.650<br />
Rotation 5: Stanford 197.400, Michigan 148.075, Auburn 147.950<br />
Rotation 6: Michigan 197.425, Stanford 197.400, Auburn 197.325 <br />
<br />
To me, 98.500 is an optimistic estimate for where Stanford will be after vault and floor (RQS tells us more like 98.200), but it will take an optimistic-level meet for Stanford to advance. It's what Stanford does in the postseason, anyway. Note that even with an optimistic score at the halfway point, Stanford still trails Michigan by 0.275 and Auburn by 0.150. They'd be fine with that deficit. That's manageable. More than that is trouble.<br />
<br />
Michigan and Auburn don't tend to have the same highs and lows as Stanford, but floor is a big, necessary score for both of them because it's 2016 and it's floor. Michigan will have gone on floor in the first half of the meet and Auburn will not, so Michigan must have a lead after rotation three, and really should unless there's another beam debacle.<br />
<br />
<b>And the rest</b><br />
Most of the attention has to be on the big three in this meet because even if one of them has a meltdown, there are still two other 197-quality teams waiting to take those spots. Quite honestly, it will take two different multi-fall meltdowns from the big teams for any of the others to get into contention. <br />
<br />
For Eastern Michigan, even making regionals would have been a tremendous accomplishment, but doing so as a #4 seed and the 24th ranked team, ahead of a much more heralded program like Penn State, is verging on phenomenal. This hasn't been achieved just been by virtue of a weird score or two. Eastern Michigan has managed 196s at home, away, and while dominating the conference championship, because of bars, because of beam, and because of floor. It has been a deep and varied season of strength. This was supposed to be George Washington's upstart season, and Eastern Michigan managed to out-George Washington George Washington. <br />
<br />
Eastern Michigan's way into this meet is beam. They're #20 on beam (their highest event ranking), and since there is beam-meltdown potential across the competition, Eastern Michigan could just go, "Hi, 49.250 please" and suddenly make a serious impression with the same bunch of 9.875s that helped them overcome bars mistakes at MACs. Do keep an eye on Kendall Valentin on bars, though. She's in the top 30 and has been a 9.9 machine.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3D9rPElb-mU" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Aside from one strong score at home during that insane Big Five meet, this has not been a positive season for Penn State, featuring a bunch of 195s and a continued commitment to creating enough behind-the-scenes drama to fill three full internets and still not even be done. While other teams have "Get to know the gymnasts!" features, Penn State should have a "Who's quitting the program in tears this week" feature just to keep us updated. It's only considerate. <br />
<br />
It was always going to be difficult for Penn State to maintain the relatively competitive level from last season without Welsh and Sanabria-Robles, and the disappearance of Sibson has made finding any semblance of depth all the more difficult. Picking up Kiera Brown post-Georgia has been a helpful addition, and she seems to have regained her beam after losing it in spectacular fashion last season. Still, for the most part the 9.8s have dried up and not really been replaced, hence the dramatic fall from a "could make nationals" 13th last year to an "and the rest" 25th this year.<br />
<br />
New Hampshire represent the last of our regionals qualifiers, a team that made a big splash at the beginning of the season by being ranked at near-Oklahoma levels on beam even though it's New Hampshire and that's not supposed to happen. The scores haven't followed from that January success, settling into the mid-195s for hit meets ever since with a vault rotation that's going to score mid 48s sometimes. There is still the potential for a fantastic beam rotation that puts pressure on the others when when Lauter, Aucoin, and Pflieger all hit together, and we can also expect a strong bars number from Mulligan, who has hit 9.9s multiple times this season, to round out some of the individual impressions this team should make. <br />
<br />
<b>Individuals</b><br />
Someone among Auburn/Michigan/Stanford won't qualify as a team, and since all of those teams boast legitimate contenders for an AA national title, the race for the two AA spots may very well be done before we even address the bottom-three teams. If Stanford doesn't qualify as a team, obviously Elizabeth Price needs to go to nationals, and Taylor Rice would be a compelling option to go with her. Even Ivana Hong is in the mix if Stanford decides to secret-weapon her on floor at regionals, about which there has been some chatter. Of course, if Hong doesn't do the AA, we've all agreed she needs to get a 10 on beam to advance to nationals as a specialist, right? Right? <br />
<br />
I was about to say "to do that routine in event finals" until I remembered that's not a thing anymore, making all of this individual-event chatter matter even less because...like we're even going to be paying one teaspoon of attention to the individual event races on semifinal day. Not when there's team qualification and AA to focus on. That's going to be about priority #50. <br />
<br />
Artz, Karas, and Atkinson are the three other strongest AAers in this meet aside from Price and, as long as they hit, will all have spots if their teams don't qualify. <br />
<br />
Still, there's a fair chance that we'll see mistakes from the team that doesn't go (and Auburn does have the just one AAer right now), so I'd imagine there could be an open spot still available for one of the three bottom teams or individuals. There are quite a few contenders in the mix, but the highest-ranked is Lindsay Offutt of Pitt. She's here without a team, making things a million times more difficult, but I like her chances. If not Offutt, then Tsang of Penn State has gone 49.3s in her NCAA career, and Catie Conrad of Eastern Michigan can reach that mark as well on the back of a big beam score. Jessica Jones? Kiera Brown? Danielle Doolin? Perhaps, but if everything adheres to the seedings, my guess is two Stanford qualifiers, which makes it really tough for everyone else. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-22566670898977849562016-03-30T10:58:00.000-07:002016-03-30T10:58:20.248-07:00Utah Regional PreviewWelcome to Pac-12s Part Deux: Megan's Revenge, the thrilling summer blockbuster in which Utah will try to beat UCLA for the first time in 2016 following two consecutive losses in what feels like their fifteenth meeting of the season.<br />
<br />
Repetitive matchups are one of the problems I have with creating a bracket for the postseason, in addition to the fact that it's not a true knockout event and doesn't have enough rounds for a bracket to be all that necessary. (It should be a true knockout event, but it isn't. The meets are best 2 out of 6, or 3 out of 6, which isn't the same thing and is fundamentally less dramatic. You don't get a bracket until you institute a format that lends itself to a bracket. You don't get dessert until you eat your vegetables.) You might as well just list all the teams at the beginning of the season in two columns, put a box in the middle for the winner, and say, "It's a bracket!" It's not a bracket. <br />
<br />
This will be the third meeting of the season between Utah and UCLA (and their third each against Washington, though at least they were in different sessions at Pac-12s). If they both do qualify, the semifinals will be their 4th meeting and the third consecutive meet day in which they've faced off. We get it. By contrast, Utah and Auburn would have been an interesting comparison, and they probably won't meet at all. <br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[5] Utah (bye before bars)<br />
[8] UCLA (beam)<br />
[17] Washington (floor)<br />
[23] Southern Utah (bye before floor)<br />
[29] Illinois (bars)<br />
[32] Utah State (vault) <br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals </b><br />
<i>Sacramento State </i>(Kalliah McCartney – AA; Lauren Rice – AA; Cassie Benning – UB, FX; Julia Konner – VT)<br />
<i>UC Davis </i>(Alexis Brown – UB, BB; Stephanie Stamates – BB, FX; Katy Nogaki – VT)<br />
<i>Seattle Pacific</i> (Maria Hundley – AA)<br />
<i>Alaska</i> (M'rcy Matsunami – AA)<br />
<br />
<b>The favorites – Utah and UCLA</b><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Tp-3ylG9a9U" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Unlike in the regionals previewed so far, this one features two teams that really should go through barring disaster. Disasters are always possible, and always the most fun, but if Utah and UCLA hit five-for-six on each event, they'll advance. The other teams are hoping for a mistake.<br />
<br />
The clash between Utah and UCLA should still be quite interesting and telling about both teams' potential to do some damage in the postseason. UCLA's position is bolstered by the two wins over Utah this year, while Utah's position is bolstered by finishing only .325 behind UCLA at Pac-12s in spite of counting a fall. And by being at home this time. The Bruins would counter that they also had some mistakes at Pac-12s that brought down their score, like Cipra's floor fall and Preston's not-in-the-face vault. And we could go on. It should be a close-fought affair. With the home advantage and the stronger scoring pedigree over the whole season (a higher RQS on three of four events), Utah should come in as the favorite between the two, though far from a prohibitive one. <br />
<br />
Neither team has a ton of difficulty on vault and both may struggle to compete with the three-1.5 lineups of the SEC once we get to nationals, but Utah's landings were significantly stronger than UCLA's at Pac-12s with a couple vaulters showing season-best sticks. Even without a difficulty edge, Utah's vault beat UCLA's by nearly three tenths because of landings (and direction, and knees), which would be a massive boon if that were repeated at regionals.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DoLtQ7ehqks" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
UCLA's edge comes on beam, with a lineup that is quite smooth in rhythm,
precise in split elements, and varied in skill selection and
difficulty. Utah, meanwhile, showed the signs of the Stover-ectomy in
counting a beam fall at Pac-12s. It's clear the team needs her back as
soon as possible not just to prevent using a fall but to provide a
much-needed 9.9.<br />
<br />
Interestingly, UCLA beat Utah on bars at Pac-12s, even though bars is supposed to be a weakness for UCLA that compromises postseason hopes while it has been a strength for Utah. If UCLA is able to continue minimizing the bars deficit compared to a team like Utah, perhaps aided by a mysterious secret-weapon appearance of Peng or Ohashi, that would eliminate one major obstacle to postseason success. I'm not convinced yet, but it will be worth watching. <br />
<br />
As for the rotation order, UCLA begins on its two best events, which I don't love. It means the Bruins must get a bunch of big scores early and absolutely need a lead at the halfway point, and a pretty significant one, to have a shot at winning this thing. They'll want a solid 98.800 after beam and floor, which is doable. The Utes will gain ground in the second half of the meet, particularly when they turn to floor as UCLA is turning to vault. As long as Utah is anywhere over 98.500 after bars and beam, even if still trailing, I would consider that on track to put up a competitive total/win. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>The challengers – Washington, Southern Utah, Illinois</b><br />
All three of these teams have proven capable of a mid-196 this year, each peaking in the 196.5-196.6 territory. The problem for them is that both Utah and UCLA would consider a 196.6 quite a poor showing. Even when counting a fall at Pac-12s, Utah went 196.9, and UCLA's last fall-counting score was 196.8. Both favorites will have some buffer. But which of these challenging schools is the most likely to put pressure on Utah and UCLA? It could go any which way.<br />
<br />
If we judge by RQS, Washington is 3rd on vault, Southern Utah is 3rd on floor, Illinois is 3rd on beam, and Utah State is 3rd on bars. So that helps zero. Thank you, RQS. <br />
<br />
Somewhat in keeping with the theme of this regional, vault has been a nightmare for all of the challenging teams, and we're going to see a rash of 48s. If Washington can in fact be the best of the group on vault, that bodes well since bars and beam really should be their most competitive pieces. With hits. Beam was an absolute catastrophe at Pac-12s, taking Washington out of the competition in the very first rotation, but the style in that lineup has not gone unnoticed. It's only fitting when an accomplished butterfly charmer is coaching the event. There's a universe in which Washington stays very competitive on bars and beam. I'm not sure if this is that universe, but I know it exists.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3h7ZAeICNMI" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Southern Utah has been a floor force this year and will look to put up a score well over 49 there that can be ridden into the mid-196s with hits on the other pieces. Having to start on floor is unfortunate because we don't know how much the floor scores will soar early before UCLA and Utah head there, but SUU has regularly scored 9.875-9.900s in a variety of contexts this season. Southern Utah should be leading the pack of challenging teams after one apparatus and will then look to hold on with consistency to remain in front of the peloton. Bars can be another strong SUU score, with a couple likely 9.850+s including a routine from Memory Shettles, whose name is Memory Shettles. She was an AA star two seasons ago but missed last year with injury and is just back on bars this season, though we're seeing the shades of that success once again in her bars work. <br />
<br />
It's sort of shocking to see Illinois sitting all the way down at a #5 seed. Illinois is a perennial nationals contender, but it just wasn't happening this season, even before the storm of injuries to Horth and O'Connor. That's eight essential routines lost that most schools would be unable to replace, and Illinois is one of those schools, having to throw out a yurchenko layout on vault and a number of 9.725s on the other events. There are still highlights. Sunny Kato is a joy and 3/4 on bars and beam, Erin Buchanan continues leading the floor lineup, and Lizzy Leduc has moments where she shows that elite training even if the consistency of execution isn't there yet. We'll see some good scores pop up for Illinois, and a total that could verge on 196 with a hit, but with all the injuries, the lineups just aren't deep enough to fulfill the potential this roster seemed to be bursting with before the season began.<br />
<br />
<b>And the rest</b><br />
Sorry, Utah State. You're alone in this one. As mentioned, Utah State has been competitive on bars this season and should put up a 49 score there, but the 196s have been harder to come by than for the other challenging teams. Utah State is the least likely of the group to emerge as the top challenger, but this does mark the third-consecutive season that Utah State has advanced to regionals, following a long winter of hanging down in the bottom half of the 40s and not challenging for regionals places at all. Utah State had an absolute nightmare on bars and beam two years ago and counted a major mistake on bars again last year, so with bars such an important event for the team score this year, slaying that postseason demon is imperative to remaining in the vaguely competitive zone. Really, Utah State's main goal will be a qualifier in the individual race, which is possible. <br />
<br />
<b>Individuals</b><br />
If we assume that Utah and UCLA do qualify as teams, then the biggest favorite to advance to nationals as an all-arounder is Allison Northey. She's ranked in the top 15 and has proven her ability to hit that exalted 39.500 plateau. The other major player to keep an eye on is Danielle Ramirez from Southern Utah. She's more than capable of going 9.850 across the board, and potentially higher on bars when she hits. There have also been some falls, but earlier in the season. If gymnastics betting were a thing, those are the two I would go for, but it's not as straightforward as all that. There are some complications. Bailey McIntire of Utah State is a big one.<br />
<br />
McIntire has gone 39.400 twice this season, including at the conference championship, and her ability to brush the 9.9 plateau on bars and floor is what makes those events USU's most competitive scores. It's always fun to have someone from a #6 seed to watch out for, and McIntire is a legitimate contender here.<br />
<br />
Under normal circumstances, Illinois would have been expected to snatch both the AA spots with O'Connor and Horth, but now, individual qualification to nationals appears much less likely. It would be amazing to see Leduc sneak in there, and while she does have a few competitive scores and can stay close on one of her consistent days, vault may take her scoring potential down too low to challenge hits from Northey and Ramirez. Buchanan is probably the team's top AAer now. She should be very competitive on floor and vault, but bars and beam can get a little 9.7y. They're both in it, yet others have proven more 9.850ish across the events. The same is probably true for Goings, Washington's second AA option. She'll get a solid number, but Northey is more likely to score higher. <br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-19870886183540414072016-03-29T15:08:00.000-07:002016-03-29T15:08:48.210-07:00Alabama Regional PreviewWhile several of the regionals this year could produce an unexpected nationals qualifier that we will pretend signals the beginning of a new era until next season when everything returns to normal, the most exciting changing of the guard will happen in Alabama. Though some of the challengers elsewhere, like Denver and Minnesota, haven't qualified to nationals for a few years, the teams in this regional have been stranded in the desert for much, much longer. Cal has been absent from the national championship since 1992, and Boise State and Kentucky have been absent since always. In fact, with three all-time nationals appearances, #5 seed West Virginia is the second-most accomplished team in the competition. <br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)<br />
[10] Cal (beam)<br />
[15] Boise State (floor)<br />
[21] Kentucky (bye before floor)<br />
[26] West Virginia (bars)<br />
[34] Bowling Green (vault)<br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>SEMO</i> (Alexis Brawner – AA; Lauren Israel – AA; McKinzie Jones – FX)<br />
<i>Northern Illinois </i>(Andie Van Voorhis – VT; Jamyra Carter – UB; Lauren Africano – UB; Megan Greenfield – BB)<br />
<i>Arizona State </i>(Allie Salas – AA; Taylor Allex – VT, FX)<br />
<i>Illinois-Chicago</i> (Mikailla Northern – AA)<br />
<i>Illinois State</i> (Amanda Mohler – BB)<br />
<br />
<b>The favorite – Alabama</b><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CWQxB1ri58U" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Alabama is Alabama. Competing at home against a relatively unheralded squadron of challengers and coming off an impressive second-place showing at SECs should really be all we need to know about Alabama's qualification outlook. Coleman may no longer the impenetrable home fortress it once was, now the site of previously unheard of losses to LSU and Arkansas, but the idea of Alabama getting upset at home by two whole teams in this meet is difficult to fathom. <br />
<br />
Unsurprisingly, Alabama had its best meet of the season at SECs, which happened to coincide with actually getting all the good people in the lineups simultaneously for the first time. Amazing how that works out. Winston returned on three events, all the top-scoring floor workers competed, and Bresette was able to show her Omelianchik, which is a higher-scoring option than her full. All of this combined to make Alabama look like a peer of Oklahoma, Florida, and LSU in the title race rather than the leader of the challenging pack. These lineups still don't look fully finalized (you can't quit depth exploration cold turkey), as I'd still perhaps like to see Winston vaulting and, critically, that was not the highest-scoring beam lineup Alabama could put out. Sanders did an excellent job of suddenly being a gymnast now, but hit routines from Beers and Bailey are going to score higher than what she (and potentially Brannan) can bring. <br />
<br />
It's an issue of hitting (both Bailey and Beers fell the week before), but if the coaches feel comfortable putting Bailey and Beers in the lineup, this team looks more formidable and closer to 198. If not, Alabama may be giving up a crucial tenth or two on beam, the rotation that knocked them down below Florida's at SECs. <br />
<br />
<b>The fight – Cal v. Boise State</b><br />
<br />
This meet represents a brand new phenomenon for Cal. We've seen Cal perform well in significant meets against strong teams over the last three seasons, but for the first time I can remember, Cal will enter a significant meet not as an upstart, or an underdog, or a spoiler, or a sentimental favorite but as a <i>favorite</i>. Cal should finish second here and should qualify along with Alabama. Not doing so would be a disappointing result given the wonderful opportunity to make nationals presented before them. Welcome to expectations, Cal. It's nice to have you here. <br />
<br />
That's not to say it's going to be a walk. Boise State has been in many ways the surprise of the season (after being the punchline of the preseason when one coach voted BSU #1), scoring a 197.025 at conference championships—at home—which bested the 196.725 Cal put up at Pac-12s. Boise State does, however, remain the least proven entity among the contending teams, having gone the whole season without facing any school seeded 1-3 in any of the regionals. We don't really know how these routines are going to be evaluated when Boise State is suddenly not the biggest and the best in the arena for the first time. The Broncos' last challenging road meet also came at Alabama, in 2015, when they did prove quite competitive through three events and were on high-196 pace until a floor meltdown. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Boise State has done well to continue improving this season even without stars like Perkins and Morris (and with critical freshman Sarah Means limited to beam), which seemed like a recipe for a regression year. Still, keeping pace on vault has been a challenge and the 48s do occasionally pop up. They have a few vaults that can take advantage of the new values, Bennion's "arabian" and Bir's handspring pike 1/2, but Cal has done the better job of the two teams, probably the best in the country, at exploiting the new values through a heterogeneous 10.0 SV vault lineup. Cal's lineup really does squeeze every possible tenth out of a roster that doesn't have a whole lot of big vaulting power aside from Toni-Ann. Cal will expect to venture over 9.850 more often than Boise State on vault and grab some tenths there.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JJaoYqnyfXE" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
The other advantage for Cal in this meet looks to be beam. Cal. Advantage. Beam. I know, it's a brand new world. After a string of beam disasters pretty much single-handedly ended Cal's season last year, beam has become...if not exactly a strength, then at least a value-neutral event. It still can be a worry, and the team is still susceptible to the wobbly-9.6 monster, but it's much less scary and has featured some moments of brilliance from the likes of Howe. The return of Emily Richardson only helps to reinforce. For Boise State's part, beam is also much less scary this year than it was last year, when both Cal and Boise State participated in the Regional of Beam Hell in which every team scored a 3.8, but less scary for BSU constitutes a 49.025ish score, so Cal will still look to pick up ground.<br />
<br />
Really, if this were a three-event meet and bars weren't a thing, Cal would be the heavy favorite. But then again, Alicia Sacramone would also be world champion. That's not the world we live in. Boise State's best event is bars by a hefty margin, as it always is. That's where the Broncos will look to make up a ton of ground that may be lost to Cal on the power events. Bars is not a bad event for Cal by any means, but Boise State can still gain multiple tenths there because 49.4 should be the expected score.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WhaVvSSDPo8" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
BSU won't head to bars until the fourth rotation, so we won't necessarily know how competitive the meet is until that point because much of Boise State's potential to get that high 196 is based on bars. Even a 98.300 after floor and vault in the early rotations (not a particularly formidable score in a regionals context), may actually be a useful pace. Cal will already have gone on its highest-scoring event (floor) by that halfway point and will expect to have a lead of at least a couple tenths to guard against what Boise State might gain in the fourth rotation. Then again, Boise State does end on beam, so... <br />
<br />
Both of these teams entered the Berkeley regional last year as the spoilers, hoping to take advantage of a Georgia beam disaster (the more things change the more they stay the same) to qualify. This year, the dynamic between the two teams themselves is much the same, but they're fighting for an actual spot now, not hoping for someone else's mistake.<br />
<br />
<b>The spoiler – Kentucky</b><br />
<br />
We saw a <i>good </i>Kentucky team at SECs, one that is supremely capable of playing the spoiler role in this regional, if not joining the fight with Cal and Boise State outright. That good performance at SECs, however, was worth 196.250. It will take more than that to take the second qualification spot. Kentucky ends up just a little too 9.800 to challenge the 49.2 rotations that the other contenders will expect to put forward. Still, the margin between them is not large, so a counting fall would certainly bump either Cal or Boise State behind Kentucky. It may not even need to be a counting fall. A beam rotation with a couple 9.6s thrown in may be enough to bring Kentucky in because Kentucky should score over 196. Anything in the 195s would constitute a disappointing meet.<br />
<br />
For the most part, the goal for Kentucky will be to go steady, steady, steady through four events and hope that weak performances from the other teams make that a competitive strategy. There's not one event on which Kentucky stands out or specifically needs a huge score, so it's more about staying in the 49.1s across the board. Beam may be an exception to that because now that Waltz has returned the lineup, she creates a pretty high-scoring triumvirate with Dukes and Hyland at the end.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sXurvSryeuY" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Beam is where Kentucky finishes, and it's relatively realistic to hope for more than a 49.1 there to put a crown on this meet. <br />
<br />
<b>And the rest</b><br />
West Virginia is a fairly tough #5 seed though has failed to break into the 196s with enough frequency to be seen as a true spoiler. They had one crazy home meet when everyone got a 9.9 on floor, but other than that this season has been a predominately 195.8 type affair. The power events are where West Virginia excels and should break 49, with the help of Zaakira Muhammad and standout freshman Kira Koshinski. It won't be enough for a qualification score because 9.8s are much harder to come by on the other events, but it wouldn't be shocking to see WVU finish in the top three on both vault and floor here.<br />
<br />
Bowling Green made regionals, which is cause for bacchanalia for a team that traditionally hangs around 50th place and rarely ever makes a ripple on the national scene other than qualifying Alyssa Nocella to regionals every year. It was far from a sure thing for most of the season, but a huge score in the home finale followed by a solid mid-195 at the MAC Champs sealed a historic result. It will go no further, but be sure to watch that beam rotation if time and attention allow. Laura Mitchell remains a triumph, and Nocella and Ellingboe provide supporting scores that should make that beam rotation competitive even in this company.<br />
<br />
<b>Individuals</b><br />
Based on scores and the season results, Cal should qualify as a team, but if not, things could get a little muddy because of the Toni-Ann situation. She's currently not in the beam lineup, even though she's Toni-Ann Williams, and therefore could not qualify as an all-arounder. That means if Cal doesn't make it, she would be left with trying to win floor to qualify as an event specialist. All of this is complicated by the Test Event, which takes place the same weekend as NCAA nationals and which Toni-Ann is supposed to attend as Jamaica's representative to try to earn a spot at the Olympics. What happens when she makes nationals? Like I said, muddy. <br />
<br />
If Alabama and Cal do qualify, then we'll have quite a race for the AA spots among a number of individuals capable of scoring in the 39.3 range. The highest-ranked of the group is Dukes for Kentucky, and I do think she's the most likely to go through, but her teammates Stuart and (sometimes) Hyland are also capable of similar scores. We could have an interesting competition for the AA spots just within the Kentucky team, but then there's also Shani Remme (though she did not vault at conference champs) and Sandra Collantes from Boise State, who are both known to venture into the 39.3s as well. It may be harder for Bowling Green's AAers, Nocella and Feely, to reach the 39.3s, but they've both done it before. West Virginia has an occasional AAer in Goldberg, but vault isn't really her thing, which usually keeps her total down a few tenths lower than the others.<br />
<br />
Basically, the unseeded teams should be hoping that Alabama and Boise State qualify out of this regional (if they themselves don't qualify, obviously), because that will take several tough challengers out of the individual race and leave it open for the individuals from Kentucky and Bowling Green to slug it out among themselves for the two spots.<br />
<br />
As I say every time, it's wildly challenging to qualify as an event specialist, but of note, Taylor Allex is competing here as a vault and floor specialist. She boasts the difficulty on both events to challenge for serious scores. It's unlikely that she'll beat the whole Alabama and Cal teams, but she has a better chance than most of the gymnasts heading to regionals without a team. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-29040577729088180322016-03-28T16:05:00.001-07:002016-03-28T16:05:37.442-07:00Georgia Regional PreviewA quick glance at Saturday's schedule reveals that regionals have been planned even more horrifically than usual this year. There will be a point during the day at which <i>five </i>of the six competitions will be occurring simultaneously, mostly because they hate us and want us to miss everything. And by <i>they</i>, I mean the people. The people who do the things. Spread the regionals throughout the day, is all I ask. The silver lining to all of this is that Georgia's regional begins an hour before all the others, and Georgia starts on beam. That means we can watch that entire emotional roller coaster unfold without distraction. Thank you, Georgia, for your time zone. <br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[3] LSU (bye before bars)<br />
[9] Georgia (beam)<br />
[14] Oregon State (floor)<br />
[22] Arizona (bye before floor)<br />
[27] George Washington (bars)<br />
[36] Michigan State (vault)<br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>NC State </i>(Brittni Watkins – AA; Chelsea Knight – VT; Nicole Wild – BB)<br />
<i>Maryland</i> (Kathy Tang – VT, FX; Abbie Epperson – UB; Macey Roberts – FX)<br />
<i>North Carolina</i> (Morgan Lane – AA; Kaitlynn Hedelund – UB)<br />
<i>Towson</i> (Tyra McKellar – AA; Mary Elle Arduino – BB)<br />
<i>William & Mary </i>(Brittany Stover – AA)<br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>The favorite – LSU</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XgK5TJVWfcQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
LSU should join Oklahoma and Florida at the same level of heavy, heavy, super favorites to advance from regionals, though the Tigers may feel a little more pressure in this one given the quality of the opposition and the scoring pedigree shown by Georgia and Oregon State, both historically and lately. This competition features the second-deepest collection of 1-2-3 seeds (behind the Michigan regional), so LSU will not be able to afford any mind-losing on beam. These other teams are too capable of taking advantage. Sans any mind-losing and fall-counting, however, LSU will slide through to nationals without forcing DD to punishment-sequin anyone. <br />
<br />
The Tigers should have been right in the hunt for the SEC title this year but ended up a step behind Florida and Alabama entirely because of their performance on bars in the first rotation. In fact, if you take the scores from just vault, beam, and floor, LSU wins the competition. Lucky, lucky LSU, they'll be starting on bars at regionals. You're welcome. This LSU bars lineup should be quite strong, but as we saw at SECs, it has emerged as the team's weak event and is still too reliant on Finnegan saving Earth through the medium of toe point for a 9.950. Wyrick hasn't shown a great deal consistency since returning, Zamardi can often dismount herself down to 9.850, and Priessman has a couple built-in errors on the pak and a DLO that can look troublingly Shades of Shayla sometimes. All of them could score quite well, but they're walking a fine line between greatness and getting stuck in the 9.800s, as happened at SECs. As we learned, that's not going to cut it when trying to beat Florida. <br />
<br />
<b>The fight – Georgia v. Oregon State</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BoOknyYcsYs" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
I considered throwing Georgia up into the favorite category with LSU as I do think Georgia should be able to 197 its way through this one, especially at home, but Oregon State proved with its performance at Pac-12s to be among the most dangerous and compelling upset challengers in the country. The Beavs simply suffered the (bad) luck of the draw in getting placed with Home Georgia since the original, non-host-adjusted draw would have seen them placed with Road Denver, where they would have been favorites to qualify. This job is much more challenging. The Beavs will take some confidence that the 196.925 at Pac-12s beat the 196.850 Georgia put up at SECs. Not equivalent meets, no host advantage, etc, but certainly a complication to this regional. On the other hand, Oregon State has not hit 197 yet all year, and in spite of all of the Gymdogs' problems, they have done so in three of the last four meets and really should at regionals. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The advantages and weakness between these two teams set up rather clearly. Georgia should win vault and floor, vault a pretty sizable margin. Vault is far and away the most compelling argument for Georgia as the favorite, with a lineup boasting three 10.0 SVs and legitimate 9.9s coming from multiple quarters, while Oregon State is often stuck with 9.775-9.825s through the whole rotation. In fact, Maddie Gardiner is the only Beav in the lineup to score over 9.850 this year (Dani Dessaints also did so in the first meet before promptly getting injured to make sure that OSU wouldn't have any vaulters). Oregon State had its best landings of the season at Pac-12s and will need to bring them again to minimize a Georgia vault advantage that could be three tenths or more.<br />
<br />
Floor is a similar, if less stark, story. Oregon State has become pretty solid with the floor landings lately but is still going the 9.850-double pike route. When Box, Jay, and Marino are hitting, Georgia could realistically pick up another two tenths there. It would be tough for Oregon State to overcome this margin, but not impossible. Which brings us to beam. Oregon State's massive score on beam at Pac-12s was to some extent the result of end-of-the-day drunk judging, but Gardiner, McMillan, and sometimes Risa are able to merit big numbers regardless. Oregon State will expect to gain tenths even against a hit beam rotation from Georgia. Whether it's enough to make up for vault and floor probably depends on the quality of Georgia's hit. Even a Georgia beam in the 48.9 range could give OSU the opening it needs to make this meet a thing.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NliLfT4uW-w" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Of course, assuming a hit Georgia beam is a risky proposition. Georgia seems to have worked out beam, but the old maxim that problems from the beginning of the season tend to manifest again in the postseason exists for a reason. The pressure of an elimination meet changes things and reveals old habits and tensions. "My college gymnastics career is over if I fall right now." That's a true, scary thought. <br />
<br />
On bars, both teams have developed two strong scores at the end of the lineup, Georgia with Jay and Rogers and Oregon State with Jacobsen and McMillan, who don't consistently score as high as Georgia's duo but can still get 9.9s. Georgia's rotation probably should do better, especially because of valuable supporting players like Snead and Schick, but Rogers' high-risk routine can occasionally bring that total down and make bars more competitive. Oregon State won't want to have to rely solely on beam to get an edge in this meet, so it's imperative that Jacobsen and McMillan do have stick-for-9.9 days to put bars in that category as well.<br />
<br />
Oregon State begins on weaker events, so I wouldn't expect a big early score, maybe something like 98.300 at halfway. If Georgia puts up a solid beam and a normal floor on the first two events, that should warrant a score closer to the 98.500 range, which will be tough for the Beavs to make up even with stronger events in the second half. Oregon State will have to play from behind, but the mission will be to keep it as close as possible, then finish with a Pac-12s-ish beam rotation that at least puts the pressure on Georgia.<br />
<br />
<b>And the rest</b><br />
Arizona is a solid team that found its 196s later in the year, but in a regional that's this competitive at the top, it would take a confluence of disasters for Arizona to have a chance to sneak up into those qualifying spots. The team is relatively similar to Oregon State, just a step behind, in that the vault scores have struggled to remain competitive this season while bars and beam are where the roster truly stands out with extension and style. Those two event scores may be relatively competitive, but Arizona will also count some 9.7s on vault and floor, which makes it very challenging to maintain a competitive pace. <br />
<br />
The emergence of George Washington has been one of the joys of this season, not simply making regionals as they did last year but spending most of the season in the top 25 and becoming a realistic threat for 196s. With none of the current lineup routines coming from seniors and the majority of important scores coming from sophomores, there's every reason to expect George Washington's ascent to continue next season and for seasons after. Making some real noise at a regional competition is still several steps away, but individual qualification is a realistic possibility. It will also be interesting to see how vaults like Winstanley's are scored in the same meet as Gnat, Jay, Rogers, etc. How is hers evaluated directly against the name-brand vaults? <br />
<br />
Michigan State was the very last qualifier to regionals, enduring a nail-biting day to stay ahead of NC State by the slimmest of margins. Qualifying was the victory, but MSU has produced some impressively 49 floor rotations over the last couple weeks, so check them out as a team that could/should finish in the top three on floor, especially with ending on that event. A relatively competitive team total that challenges the high 195s is not out of the question in spite of qualifying in 36th.<br />
<br />
<b>Individuals</b><br />
If Georgia doesn't make it, then Brandie Jay is of course a likely AA qualifier (Rogers would be as well, but it seems she's off floor now that Reynolds is back), but if we assume that LSU and Georgia qualify to nationals as the two teams, things get a little interesting. Maddie Gardiner would be expected to take up the Official Chelsea Tang Individual Spot now that Tang has graduated, but Arizona doesn't compete an AAer, opening up what looks like it's going to be a guaranteed AA spot for one of the two lowest-seeded teams.<br />
<br />
Last year, Cami Drouin-Allaire of GWU pulled off the big upset by qualifying to nationals as an individual, and this year it looks like she and Jillian Winstanley could be in an intra-team battle for an AA spot once again. The two have been swapping places as AA winners and scoring very equivalent totals all season, so it could go either way. Keeping an eye on the back-and-forth scores for those two will be an interesting side story at this regional.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UE88Z3wuLDE" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
I also wouldn't discount Lisa Burt of Michigan State who has saved the meet for that team more times than can even be counted over her career. She's very capable of 9.850ing her way to a strong total. The fourth option for that final spot is probably DeMoura for George Washington, but her scoring potential tends to be a touch lower than that of Drouin-Allaire and Winstanley, so if George Washington is having a good day, expect the CDA and Winstanley totals to be the more competitive ones. <br />
<br />
But unless things get really crazy in this competition, it looks like there will be just six AAers (add in Brittany Holmes of MSU) who don't qualify with a team and are fighting for those two spots, five of whom come from the lowest seeds, so it won't take all that many mistakes for any of the six to sneak in.<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-24014742451626747152016-03-27T16:18:00.000-07:002016-03-27T16:18:43.977-07:00The Great Candle Ceremony of DevaA weekend without NCAA gymnastics. What's a person to do? Sorry, that's a silly question. Obviously, the answer is curl up and enjoy a moving bedtime story about how not having a father figure makes you fall on beam at the Olympics, starring our esteemed host with the least, Traut Alwig, and his dearest confidant, the oboe of aggressive narrative. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AxojWc13f4I" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br />
Grab your paper cup cathedral candles and your daddy issues because we've got a lot to get through. <br />
<br />
The year was 2000. Everything was terrible, including probably your hair. Bela Karolyi had been commissioned to crush the US gymnasts into tiny cubes so as to save space on the flight to Sydney, Ragan Smith was literally one month old, Maria "Her?" Olaru reigned as defending world champion, and Russia was single-mindedly bent on erasing the shame those caterwauling American chicken buckets brought upon their country's honor four years previously. Oops. Never mind. I'm sure you'll win another team gold soon. Well, at least there's still the all-around final. Nothing scandalous or painfully unjust will happen here and then be remembered forever.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1B6V63swWZM/VvgXlAAJr_I/AAAAAAAABKY/rRfcePx5904ax_fSiQpyXIDbfDBrvq5jA/s1600/Sydney.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1B6V63swWZM/VvgXlAAJr_I/AAAAAAAABKY/rRfcePx5904ax_fSiQpyXIDbfDBrvq5jA/s1600/Sydney.gif" /></a></div>
<span id="goog_1670509502"></span><span id="goog_1670509503"></span><br />
The fluff before the storm. We were so innocent. It was a different era. We had to churn our own butter and make our own scandals out of nothing more than popsicle sticks, an old boot, and a shot of a couple Russian gymnasts stepping off a bus completely unremarkably.<br />
<br />
We kick things off with a breaking news update from Trautbot. Mission control has dialed his vocal pitch matrix all the way down to Implied Russian Cheating Bass (one notch below This American Score Seems Too Low Baritone) to inform us that in an all-around final, <i>only </i>three gymnasts per nation may compete (so few!), but the Russians are such diva rebel divas that they brought <i>four </i>to the arena. Those bitches. They're totally trying to cheat and put a pair of Groucho glasses on Zamo and sneak her into the all-around final as Fakeryna Shutupskaya from Tumblestan. BUT YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED! YOU'RE NOT ALLO...oh, you mean Prod is injured and this is normal because no one cares how many gymnasts arrive at the arena? <br />
<br />
Really, the bigger scandal here is that Svetlana Khorkina was riding a bus. A BUS. Svetlana Khorkina does not ride buses. Not now, not ever. Would you make the moon ride a bus? Or the stars? <br />
<br />
All is not well in the Russian team, but like...more than usual. This is symbolized by the wistful fading sunlight of dashed dreams and stolen glory near something Kremliny.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YTUnTnY3iRU/VvhSjiSyo5I/AAAAAAAABKw/w98X5LVfoDcSAOWl6XiUFwaREXgXB1sig/s1600/Kremliny.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YTUnTnY3iRU/VvhSjiSyo5I/AAAAAAAABKw/w98X5LVfoDcSAOWl6XiUFwaREXgXB1sig/s400/Kremliny.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Wait a MINUTE. That's the exact same wistful fading sunlight of Russian sadness they used during Atlanta when it symbolized the decline of the Soviet machine intermingled with the aching internal pain of Leeeeeeeeetle Roza Galieva four years after getting personally victimized by Tatiana Gutsu! But which is it?!?!? What does it really mean?!?!?! I don't know what to think! <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
In this particular instance, RussiaHasASad2.mpeg is being used to introduce the first annual NBC Living-Parents Championship, in which we check out how many living parents all the gymnasts have and then base everything they have accomplished on the stability of the father figures in their lives. Note: all older males are important father figures to these lost little girls. Got it? Got it.<br />
<br />
Both Zamo and Prod's fathers have died, which led Prod to sit in the gym in black and white while gradually transforming into a glamorous 1940s movie star.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MrgT-VyxgK4/VvhT4KV2NTI/AAAAAAAABK8/ww-lYGd86N4sMo8JQ-_9YebaNmVgVT41A/s1600/Prod.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MrgT-VyxgK4/VvhT4KV2NTI/AAAAAAAABK8/ww-lYGd86N4sMo8JQ-_9YebaNmVgVT41A/s400/Prod.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Don't weep too much for them because their fathers were swiftly replaced by Leonid Arkayev. PHEW. ALL BETTER. Just as long as there's a father figure somewhere, someone who can use Prod's legs to extinguish a forest fire and then kiss her on the lips. You know, dad things. Remember that time Andy Memmel kissed Chellsie on the lips after a routine and Daggett quickly had to go, "IT'S HER DAD DON'T FREAK OUT PLEASE AHHHH."<br />
<br />
Because of Arkayev's fatherly guidance and fatherly direction of fatherhood, Prod eventually becomes in color again (in what we can only assume is a Pleasantville-type situation), and she instantly gets herself a cool new Russian strutting jacket and dead-of-winter skirt.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8ydNG6WK7fg/VvhVLgVe4PI/AAAAAAAABLY/kqq-O_2uTIkd1y0xpTEcxrwK8MV2Zu0ww/s1600/Prodstrut1.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="286" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8ydNG6WK7fg/VvhVLgVe4PI/AAAAAAAABLY/kqq-O_2uTIkd1y0xpTEcxrwK8MV2Zu0ww/s400/Prodstrut1.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
The flag of Russia. <br />
<br />
Unlike Prod's, Zamo's father died very recently, undermining the narrative about getting into gymnastics in search of some ersatz discipline and leadership that could only ever come from an older Russian male, so we'll just ignore that. Her dad was a soldier, and in case you didn't know what a soldier looks like, here are four random ones kidnapping this giant doll of Macaulay Culkin and using it as a battering ram to storm the palace.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uFOMg4mTYeA/VvhWs8YLroI/AAAAAAAABLo/E4XP-3yZ2m8_SSRuChdsRg3lKG9lQeh0g/s1600/Zamo.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uFOMg4mTYeA/VvhWs8YLroI/AAAAAAAABLo/E4XP-3yZ2m8_SSRuChdsRg3lKG9lQeh0g/s400/Zamo.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
I feel like someone should have looked into this. That shot is very "back before the accident." <br />
<br />
Because Zamo doesn't have a living father, she fell on beam in the team competition. That is the reason. 1+1=2.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pkmVIn9XLAc/VvhW4mH77NI/AAAAAAAABLw/Q_CYa6uSW2g4gZfNpFjvH7v4s9j-YZq9Q/s1600/TheZamo.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pkmVIn9XLAc/VvhW4mH77NI/AAAAAAAABLw/Q_CYa6uSW2g4gZfNpFjvH7v4s9j-YZq9Q/s400/TheZamo.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
For cold-diva-villain-narrative reasons, the Russians took off their silver medals shortly after receiving them, frigidly choosing not to sleep with them for 16 months, wear them on Ellen, and get 15 misguided self-drawn tattoos about the experience because it's an honor just to be nominated. That's what good people would do. The Russians, however, are <i>insulted</i> and <i>fixated</i>, which are Russian fluff synonyms for American qualities like <i>driven</i> and <i>inspiringly motivated by the quest for excellence</i>.<br />
<br />
Of course, it would be inappropriate to talk any more about the Russian team without mentioning its most important member, Ostrich Zach Morris. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b3gIYZCeu3I/VvhXGlJk4jI/AAAAAAAABL4/LDybo9s_6C4Ix11qeTA_gCF2XINy9IipA/s1600/Khorkina.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b3gIYZCeu3I/VvhXGlJk4jI/AAAAAAAABL4/LDybo9s_6C4Ix11qeTA_gCF2XINy9IipA/s400/Khorkina.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Trautwig explains that the team is guided by the intense edge of Svetlana Khorkina's haircut, callously leaving out the equally important dual influence of the Yelena Produnova shaved eyebrow lines that practically raised me. They're all the education anyone ever needed. But now that we've mentioned Khorkina for no other reason than to show a couple shots of her looking gaunt and divay, we can get back to Zamo and the tears.<br />
<br />
Zamo didn't make the all-around final, but since there's no Andrea Joyce to go, "Sup with those tears, yo? Tell us about your dead father. Was this performance supposed to be a tribute to him and now isn't because you fell?" Zamo is simply forced to Wieber for a while in the corner and wait for her Roza Galieva ex machina, which comes in the form of Prod, as we learn that Prod suffered a tragic overuse injury to her mournfully-staring-at-my-knee muscle on the eve of the final. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WmXnJM4yBZU/VvhXo0GtpPI/AAAAAAAABME/6SuJEX7C3j8oNZcZoQDdQjQhVY1m7DHQg/s1600/ProdKnee.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WmXnJM4yBZU/VvhXo0GtpPI/AAAAAAAABME/6SuJEX7C3j8oNZcZoQDdQjQhVY1m7DHQg/s400/ProdKnee.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
-"Yelena, we need some footage to use in case something bad happens, so could you just sit there for the next couple minutes looking Russian?"<br />
-"I don't know what that means."<br />
-"You're already doing it perfectly."<br />
<br />
We should probably get out of here so Prod and her knee can spend some quality time together, so let's move on to the Romanians. We now join the annual Deva Gymnastics Candle Ceremony That's 100% About Gymnastics, already in progress. It is the most hallowed of Romanian religious traditions in which the entire town of Deva shuts down for Gymnastics Prayer Day and every citizen shoves a candle into a paper cup and trudges into the local cathedral to pray that Claudia Presecan doesn't take that call from that Japanese magazine.<br />
<br />
What absolutely nobody did here was film a nonspecific religious ceremony and then spend multiple fluff pieces implying that it's a prayer ceremony for the gymnastics team that the whole town engages in. Nope. Never. <br />
<br />
Their family is the town of Deva, and their father figure is Octavian Bellu. He's not their coach. He's their father figure. If you thought maybe their family was their actual family and their father figure was their actual father, you would be wrong. It's Deva, and it's Bellu. "His girls" are all orphans. <br />
<br />
Please also note how Bellu has way nicer candle cup than any of the gymnasts got. That's like a professional grade, multi-story Deva candle cup. No wonder they're having to pose for Japanese magazines. #equalcandlecupsforequalwork<br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uN4cc6043FQ/VvhYgxBESxI/AAAAAAAABMc/T4VQM8AZ06AmMzMMRFKhqcb79-wU8rzYA/s1600/bellucandle.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uN4cc6043FQ/VvhYgxBESxI/AAAAAAAABMc/T4VQM8AZ06AmMzMMRFKhqcb79-wU8rzYA/s400/bellucandle.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Because of the power of candle cup ceremonies about gymnastics, the Romanian women win team gold, leading to the most awkward and fantastic victory celebration of all time, when Bellu tries to lift up Raducan but all the limbs just get lost in an indecipherable swamp of billowing blue 1990s track suits.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZmIFhWmNrrs/VvhYm2_rYXI/AAAAAAAABMk/5Zzm_aKRxV0hWxth4Wlhgij57NkeBd4qQ/s1600/armleg.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZmIFhWmNrrs/VvhYm2_rYXI/AAAAAAAABMk/5Zzm_aKRxV0hWxth4Wlhgij57NkeBd4qQ/s400/armleg.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Nobody knows. It's like one of those giant inflatable tube people outside car dealerships.<br />
<br />
Nothing could possibly go wrong now. I mean, she's just sitting in a park, probably taking some ill-defined medication that I'm sure is fine.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uFQHAKRE4-Q/VvhY3rUa6rI/AAAAAAAABMw/-NtQiOgSbFI9TVTCO1M-Dg_dYMi_A4wdQ/s1600/park.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uFQHAKRE4-Q/VvhY3rUa6rI/AAAAAAAABMw/-NtQiOgSbFI9TVTCO1M-Dg_dYMi_A4wdQ/s400/park.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
No, Andreea! Don't do it! Not the Sudafed!<br />
<br />
Of course, Romania's success isn't all about Andreea Raducan. There's also some of the least enthusiastic praise of all time that we can give the rest of the gymnasts. "The persistent consistence of the team includes Simona Amanar and is completed by Maria Olaru." <br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NuQypPcXsR4/VvhcO5WrJJI/AAAAAAAABNw/8clUX9yVdH8Bf_oUmd6Ad73stlb_5QKAQ/s1600/Lemon.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NuQypPcXsR4/VvhcO5WrJJI/AAAAAAAABNw/8clUX9yVdH8Bf_oUmd6Ad73stlb_5QKAQ/s400/Lemon.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
"Hey, Maria. Please drape yourself over this beam the way no one has ever, like a crafty snake that just bewitched a lost traveler. Cool?"<br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bDFooFdqM5g/VvhZH7m8-zI/AAAAAAAABNA/uxEw49KyQM00E_y-kljlBOEXNkciKyDDA/s1600/olaru.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="260" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bDFooFdqM5g/VvhZH7m8-zI/AAAAAAAABNA/uxEw49KyQM00E_y-kljlBOEXNkciKyDDA/s400/olaru.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
But now it's time for the colors to get 100 times brighter and the music to get 100 times lighter to introduce Elise Ray. We find Elise sitting on the serenely suburban stoop of her family home on 4th of July Boulevard in Applepieburg, where she is joined by the first three people who answered the casting call for Typical American White Family. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Uk9UUegtMWo/VvhZreQD_7I/AAAAAAAABNQ/NraEAVdH5s07xb76X4dMDXiTvcrXg2vSw/s1600/therays.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="236" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Uk9UUegtMWo/VvhZreQD_7I/AAAAAAAABNQ/NraEAVdH5s07xb76X4dMDXiTvcrXg2vSw/s400/therays.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
Elise's coach is a woman, which doesn't fit the guiding father-figure narrative, so we're going to discuss it none. It's not even necessary because Elise is a proper American, so unlike in the evil and inhumane Russian and Romanian systems, Elise has parents who have shown the common decency to be alive and sit on that stoop aggressively supporting her while being able to afford to go to Sydney.<br />
<br />
We're really hit over the head with Elise's apparently glorious and idyllic life. I mean seriously, she might as well be prancing through a peaceful meadow with a loyal butterfly attendant. Oh wait...<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-48lrszp-OKc/VvhZzbX52MI/AAAAAAAABNY/z2qfFF2qbSMc-XWJ_DMMcVvjnNB1hNDbQ/s1600/butterfly.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-48lrszp-OKc/VvhZzbX52MI/AAAAAAAABNY/z2qfFF2qbSMc-XWJ_DMMcVvjnNB1hNDbQ/s400/butterfly.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
It's her post-Bela therapy butterfly. Smile through the pain, smile through the pain. Act like you're really excited to share a plane with Bela. <br />
<br />
The all-around final is quite simply the only important thing she'll ever do and will define how she is viewed for ever and ever, so she better huddle on that chair and stare out the window pensively imagining everything about this competition going wrong and it being a miserable experience in every way. I mean, all her dreams coming true. <br />
<br />
Because they totally will. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t-XFNXzA-sk/VvhZ6lbwhZI/AAAAAAAABNg/ErH1egCNyZcgBmXYOr2vqsZkpuCJf-72w/s1600/vault.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t-XFNXzA-sk/VvhZ6lbwhZI/AAAAAAAABNg/ErH1egCNyZcgBmXYOr2vqsZkpuCJf-72w/s400/vault.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
The end.<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-77550564208074434662016-03-25T10:30:00.001-07:002016-03-25T10:30:28.531-07:00Minnesota Regional PreviewOnward! Following the cue of the wildly circuitous Road to Rio we've been hearing about for the past year (I feel like there might be more efficient ways to get to Rio, like a plane or something), we move along the Road to Lovely Metropolitan Fort Worth from our first stop in Iowa to Minnesota. Wait, are we going the right direction? This feels wrong. Who's navigating this trip? TRAUTWIG!!!???<br />
<br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[2] Florida (bye before bars)<br />
[11] Denver (beam)<br />
[16] Minnesota (floor)<br />
[20] Missouri (bye before floor)<br />
[28] Ohio State (bars)<br />
[31] BYU (vault)<br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>Iowa State</i> (Haylee Young – AA; Meagan Sievers – AA; Sydney Converse – VT, BB; Briana Ledesma – VT, FX; Hilary Green – UB; Alex Marasco – BB; Kelsey Paz – FX)<br />
<i>Air Force</i> (Kara Witgen – AA; Jamie Lewis – AA)<br />
<i>UW-Whitewater</i> (Mackenzie Smith – UB)<br />
<br />
<b>The favorite – Florida</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6Elxz33EJCk" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Much like Oklahoma, the Florida Gators enter regionals as the heavy favorite and should win comfortably, pretty much running away with it after the first rotation, even though they'll be on a bye. The win at SECs helps reinforce Florida's status as a comfortable pick to win a fourth-straight title, though the sheer competitiveness of that meet, along with getting outscored by Oklahoma by multiple tenths that day, indicate that it's far from a safe proposition. Florida was challenged by multiple other teams during a well-hit meet. Mostly well-hit. <br />
<br />
That brings us to the Sloan problem. You're the one who's not supposed to be a problem! What is happening? For regionals, Florida does have the leeway to make a couple errors or count a fall and still advance, but it's imperative that Sloan work out whatever is happening on beam and why. She has fallen on three of her last five beam routines, and while one of the other two hits was a 10.000, that's not a very Sloan-like record at all. At nationals, the Gators don't just need a hit from her. They need a 9.950. That's how close and high-scoring this thing is going to be. We know Sloan can pull it together, as she mas many times before. As an elite, she had a bit of a Mikulaky reputation for falling on beam on the first day and then hitting on the second day, and even two seasons ago, Bridget was a beam disaster heading into the final Saturday and then got a 20 at Super Six. She needs to Sloan it out again. Our main focus in this meet will be lower down the standings, but Sloan's beam routine in rotation three is a must-watch. <br />
<br />
<b>The fight – Denver v. Minnesota</b><br />
This regional contest is among the more delectable because, aside from providing a potentially close race right down to the end, it guarantees a somewhat unexpected qualifier to nationals. While all three of the contenders here have advanced to nationals in the recent past (Minnesota in 2013, Missouri in 2010, Denver in 2007, 2008), none are what would be considered perennial qualifiers. Someone is going to be spoiling the old party. Also, the Jessica Lopez era was EIGHT years ago? <br />
<br />
Denver and Minnesota have both hit tremendous highs this season marked by historically significant scores, but some of those scores have been a little...creative, particularly that weekend of meets during which these two teams squared off twice and split the series.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BNWO48Av9ss" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
For instance, this Julia Ross bars routine got a 9.900, which I use to illustrate high scores and because it's one of the key routines for Denver that isn't Nina McGee's floor. They have others. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>More likely, claiming the second spot here will require a mid-high 196, which is why this placement is such a juicy opportunity, not just for Denver and Minnesota but for Missouri as well. That's a fairly conceivable score for all three, and this is the most open chance to make nationals any of these schools has seen for a while or is likely to see for a while. There's no UCLA, or Michigan, or Georgia, or Stanford, or any of the other dangerous, big-reputation 2-3 seeds that must be defeated to make nationals. The task presented to these teams is simply to beat their peers. Dangerously attainable. It's a doubly important opportunity for Denver and Minnesota because this is the last year of McGee and Mable, so it will be much harder next season once they've dropped that vital scoring potential (though it should be noted that Denver's freshman class for next year is <i>legit</i>, including Maddie Karr from TCT who won the Nastia last year and Sam Ogden from WOGA who was elite for a hot minute this quad).<br />
<br />
For much of the season, Minnesota looked like an also-ran, hovering in the 195s and unable to break through for a massive score, but the recent 197s coupled with this being a home meet make the Gophers much more of a threat. But how much will home be a factor? Minnesota hasn't scored all that well at home this year, with those recent big totals all coming on the road. The one instance this year when these schools did meet at a neutral venue (at Air Force), Minnesota won by a couple tenths without a home advantage.<br />
<br />
Minnesota's event rotation, beginning on floor and ending on beam, isn't as devastatingly terrible as it usually seems because beam is such an important event for this team. It's the one event where they are clearly stronger than Denver, and no pair of routines is more critical to Minnesota's success than Mable and Nordquist on beam. Ending the day with those two routines is not a bad deal at all (even if starting on floor is a bit of a pain that may somewhat neutralize another important score). A Hanna Nordquist end-of-meet senior-year home beam routine with nationals on the line is like judge catnip, though it will fall in the fifth rotation instead of the sixth, when Minnesota ends on a bye. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Bh6abnKIBig" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Denver, meanwhile, will look to break out on floor in the third rotation with that parade of power culminating in Nina McGee's near-automatic 9.950. McGee has scored under 9.925 on floor just twice this season, which is why the team would be disappointed with any rotation total under 49.300. Denver's floor should be the highest-scoring event of the meet for any team not named Florida and must be greater than what Minnesota scores on floor in the first rotation if Denver is going to snatch a qualifying spot.<br />
<br />
While both teams have one vault that usually scores quite well (guess who it comes from...), vault isn't a big difference maker for either, staying relatively even and 9.800y for both teams. Bars will tell us more. It has been a comfortable score for Denver this year and has been somewhat terrifying for Minnesota, as per tradition. That's not to say Minnesota can't score well on bars. Holst and Mable can both bring in big numbers on one of Mable's good days, but she also has bad days on bars that often send the rotation down below the 49 line. It has to be a Mable good day, in all the ways, but especially on bars to prevent Denver from having two big asset events over Minnesota.<br />
<br />
By the halfway point in the meet, both teams will have gone on floor, so Denver will hope to have a lead of at least a tenth or so (as long as they get through that opening beam rotation) and a score around 98.500. That would be somewhat challenging for Minnesota to match unless its floor scores are soaring, so Minnesota will be hoping things stay closer to 98.350-98.400 after two events, a much more attackable score in the second half of the meet. <br />
<br />
<b>The spoiler – Missouri </b><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eta53kTzTqk" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Missouri has proven capable of 196.6 both at home and on the road this season and therefore cannot be eliminated from consideration if we expect the qualifying score to hover close to that range. Sure, both Denver and Minnesota are capable of scoring higher, so their performances will dictate whether Missouri is in contention or not, but if a few too many Gophers and Pioneers look a little 9.775, Missouri can jump right in. The major question is whether floor can be competitive in a group filled with teams eager to take advantage of 2016's loose floor scoring to drive up the total. Missouri struggled on floor at SECs with several weak landings and, in fact, has not exceeded 49.150 on floor on the road all season. Staying 49.1s is unlikely to challenge without the help of falls from others. Floor is Missouri's first event, which will tell us whether this is the road-season-high kind of day it will take to put the pressure on Denver and Minnesota. This performance will also be a useful case study (along with Kentucky's) as to whether silly SEC scoring has driven Missouri's stock up to an artificial level or whether the mid-196s are a true reflection of quality.<br />
<br />
Shauna Miller is also one to keep an eye on. She had a nightmare at SECs, and while she's not as critical to the team this year as she was in 2015 since Porter and Ward have taken up some of her duties, Missouri will struggle to put up a solid team score without a hit AA from Miller.<br />
<br />
<b>And the rest</b><br />
Ohio State is more competitive than most of the #5 seeds nationally, but it's difficult to envision a school has rested in the 195s all year suddenly advancing out of this region against teams that should be scoring much higher. Challenging Missouri for 4th is a realistic proposition, and hitting 196.000 is a very attainable goal and would constitute a solid day, but once we get past a couple excellent routines from Mattern, Harrison, and Hofland, the rest of the lineups don't manage enough 9.8s to get a total into the mid 196s. BYU is in a similar position, though less likely to reach that 196.000 plateau. The Cougars have settled into this range of teams that usually make it to regionals, popping in as a #6 seed, but don't look close to challenging for anything better or regaining the glory of yore. <br />
<br />
<b>Individuals</b><br />
The qualification fight between Denver and Minnesota features two of the strongest AAers in the country in Mable and McGee. It would be unacceptable for either to miss nationals. We have to unite as a family and make sure it doesn't happen. In the most likely outcome, one will qualify with a team and (as long as there's no fall involved) the other will make it as one of the two AA individuals from this regional. Their scoring potential is just too high compared to the others. If something weird and unfortunate does happen somewhere, they'll both be in the hunt to make nationals as an event specialist on perhaps a couple apparatuses (as will Hanna Nordquist for beam if Minnesota doesn't make it), but let's hope it doesn't get to that point.<br />
<br />
With one spot presumably taken by one of them, Missouri's Morgan Porter looks the most likely to take the other spot. She's currently ranked #20 in the AA and has scored at least 39.325 in her last five AA appearances. That seems the most believable setup for the two qualifying spots, though Shauna Miller is back in the AA and could put up a strong score if she's suddenly having a much better day in the AA, and Ciara Gardner is another option for Minnesota if team qualification is not in the cards. Missouri would also consider Ward on vault and beam a possibility as an event specialist, but she'd have to beat Florida's whole lineup, which seems unlikely. <br />
<br />
If there are mistakes from that favored group of AAers, then we could see challenges come from Mattern and Harrison for Ohio State and Halliday for BYU, but they're more likely to hang in the 49.1-49.2 range. They'll need things not to go to plan for the higher-seeded teams to get in.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6890625336346715414.post-87840868473891374302016-03-24T10:11:00.000-07:002016-03-25T13:31:21.908-07:00Iowa Regional PreviewThus, the insanity begins. Last year, we were subjected to the relative letdown of all twelve #1 and #2 seeds advancing to nationals, but this season has been marked by uprooting of the traditional order of things, with teams like Cal and Denver breaking into the top 12 and shoving out some more established powers. The heavy parity among most of the teams ranked 10-18 should be cause for hope that we'll see some real upsets this year, but even if we don't and all the #1 and #2 seeds go through, that would still mean that less-traditional qualifiers like Cal and Denver are heading to nationals. <br />
<br />
Before we go to therapy for our anticipation problems by dissecting the regional championships one by one, the news of the day is the announcement of the six finalists for the AAI Award, a.k.a. the Best Senior Award: Caitlin Atkinson, Ivana Hong, Lindsay Mable, Nina McGee, Haley Scaman, and Bridget Sloan. Snubs include Brandie Jay, Brittany Rogers, Danusia Francis, Lauren Beers, among others. I wonder who's going to win...<br />
<br />
Anyway, to the regionals! Let's begin with the top-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and their visit to the land of that butter statue of Shawn Johnson, the great state of Iowa. <br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Competing teams (starting event)</b><br />
[1] Oklahoma (bye before bars)<br />
[12] Nebraska (beam)<br />
[13] Arkansas (floor)<br />
[19] Iowa (bye before floor)<br />
[30] Kent State (bars)<br />
[35] Central Michigan (vault) <br />
<br />
<b>Competing individuals</b><br />
<i>Western Michigan</i> (Anna Corbett – AA; Kelsey Hood – AA; Jessie Peszek – UB, BB; Rachel Underwood – BB, FX; Jessi Buis – VT; Jessica Juncaj – UB) <br />
<i>Ball State</i> (Denaisha Christian – VT, FX; Sarah Ebeyer – VT, FX; Jordyn Penny – UB; Baylee Bell – BB)<br />
<i>Centenary</i> (Ashley White – AA)<br />
<br />
<b>The favorite — Oklahoma</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9uBOkzxF0O4" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
The Sooners should sail through this competition for all of the reasons, of particular note being that their season average is greater than the season high of any other team in the meet and that they've spent the month of March looking even more postseasony than usual. It would be a massive disaster if Oklahoma were not to qualify out of this session, so I'll spend more time addressing the Sooners later once we head toward nationals and start evaluating the title chances of the various top contenders. <br />
<br />
If things go to plan and Oklahoma is up by, you know, seven tenths halfway through the meet, everyone's attention will probably be directed at the exciting qualification fight for the second spot in this session, but there are still a few areas to look out for in Oklahoma's performance with eyes toward nationals. As with pretty much all the teams, refining landings will be a major focus of the next month. Vault is the only event on which Oklahoma doesn't own the world, currently sitting in 3rd place behind LSU and Florida, often a result of the lineup peaking around 9.875 when Scaman and Jackson have larger steps on their 1.5s at the end. They need some more consistently controlled landings on those 1.5s to keep pace with the Gnats and the Bakers. (Should Oklahoma mimic what Florida does with McMurtry and throw a sticker like Kmieciak or Capps in the anchor spot after the 1.5s to ensure they get 9.9s instead of potentially being kept down earlier in the lineup?) I'm also interested to see how the routines are being evaluated as a whole since we'll get both Oklahoma and Florida as away teams at (hopefully) non-cuckoo-scoring venues at the same time for comparison. <br />
<br />
<b>The fight — Nebraska v. Arkansas</b><br />
<br />
This year, the #3 seeds are ending on a bye, which isn't great for the excitement of the competition but does mean that we should know exactly what Nebraska needs to do on bars heading into the final rotation since Arkansas will already be done. We have reason to hope it'll be close because there's very little to separate these teams right now, as it should be when the #12 and #13 face off. It would be hard to consider either team advancing much of an upset. In fact, while Nebraska's overall RQS is a touch higher than Arkansas's, their four event RQSs total exactly identically. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The performances at conference championships pretty clearly illustrate the identities of each of these rosters at this point in the season (now that Nebraska has enough people to compete): Nebraska scored eight 9.9s to Arkansas's one, while Nebraska also had three scores under 9.7 to Arkansas's none, with the caveat that Nebraska's conference championship also took place at home. Nebraska has more big-score potential from Blanske, Laeng, Breen now, and Williams sometimes but also still has to throw in the occasional backup auto-drop, while Arkansas has been 9.850ing along in pretty much every meet. After enduring a disaster in Cancun ("we've all been there, amiright?" said the worst person in the world), Arkansas has become one of NCAA's most reliable teams.<br />
<br />
This would seem to indicate that the meet is in Nebraska's hands. If the Huskers hit to a relatively postseasonish level, they can take a couple tenths and run away and hide with them (recent form backs this up, with Nebraska's lowest score in the last three being 196.900—a meet that included counting an OOB on floor—and Arkansas's highest being 196.775). That's why it's imperative for Arkansas to nail its "big" routine on each event. Arkansas doesn't have a lot of huge gymnastics, going the yfull-double pike route this season, so the showcase routine—be it Wellick on vault and floor, Zaziski on bars, or Nelson on beam—must be a big number to take away Nebraska's chance of using more 9.9s to rack up a multi-tenth edge. <br />
<br />
If we employ RQS as our constant and reliable guide—because without numbers we're no better than the animals—Arkansas theoretically has the edge on vault and floor.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hgWy6W4b3jg" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
That's mostly a reflection of consistency. Arkansas has shown better landing control on vault and has suffered fewer instances of having to put up only five on vault and floor. Or as the kids call it, Nebraskaing. They've both had some, Nebraska during Laeng's absence and the Ashley Lambert injury saga and Arkansas after the injury to MacMoyle, but no one can out-"putting up five on vault and floor" Nebraska. The bigger routines from Blanske at the end of those Nebraska lineups, however, may negate any Arkansas consistency advantage, especially if she sticks that 1.5 the way she did at Big Tens. <br />
<br />
Bars and beam, on the other hand, are supposed to go Nebraska's way. Nebraska's beam RQS is higher than its vault RQS, you guys. WHAT IS THIS WORLD? I don't even know what to think. So I won't. Bars has seen some lineup upheaval for the Huskers this year, but it was the event that nearly single-handedly saved their score at Big Tens as they Oklahomaed all over that score sheet.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9K4Ha5xwiwQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Nebraska's final event is bars, while Arkansas finishes on beam, which should be advantage Nebraska. Arkansas has been solid on beam this year and has found a lineup that works, but it's not going to be a hugely huge score, especially if Sydnie Dillard keeps getting Aisha Gerber-level inexplicably low 9.7s in the first spot. That means the closer Nebraska keeps it early, the more the advantage shifts to the Huskers. All of these #2 seeds like Nebraska are starting on beam, so we're going to have a pretty good sense of where the Upset Meter stands after the first rotation of each regional.<br />
<br />
<b>The spoiler — Iowa</b><br />
<br />
"There's nothing more dangerous than an unseeded host team capable of scoring 196.500" - Eleanor Roosevelt.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cUXHwBQe2R0" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
We can't count out Iowa here. Quietly, this has been a pretty monumental season for the Hawkeyes. Escaping from the usual purgatory of the lower end of the top 30, Iowa used some mid-season 196s to jump squarely into the teens and enter regionals as the strongest of the unseeded schools. Competing at home, and with a competitive scoring precedent already set this season, Iowa could do some damage as long as Nebraska and Arkansas have a case of the 9.825s and stay in the 196s. On vault and floor early in the meet, watch the scores for Drenth and Glover. If Glover is hitting 9.900 on floor and Drenth is hitting 9.9 for her "arabian," as she did at Big Tens, that's your sign that this might be an out-of-the-ordinary scoring day and that Iowa needs to be watched. Still, unless it's a day of true crazy home craziness, it's hard to imagine Iowa beating hit meets from both Nebraska and Arkansas, who are much more likely to go into the higher end of the 196s. Iowa needs a couple meltdowns. But, they can be minor meltdowns as long as Iowa stays on 49 pace. If the first two events are sub-49, it will take more than a minor mistake from the others for Iowa to get into this meet. <br />
<br />
<b>And the rest</b><br />
Kent State and Central Michigan round out the regional, and for them it's more a fight with each other than a fight to make it to nationals. Central Michigan impressed last year, but after graduating basically the entire roster + seven people, CMU did well just to hang on for a spot at regionals this season. Kent State recovered from missing out in 2015 with some crucial late 195s to hop into the top 36. It will be a battle of Kent State's floor versus CMU's bars and beam. Kent State ranks very competitively on floor but relies heavily on that being a 49+ score because the other events are weaker, which may be Central Michigan's opening. <br />
<br />
<b>Individuals</b><br />
The top two AAers not on a qualifying team will advance to nationals from each regional competition, along with any event champions who are not on a qualifying team. Every year, a couple individual event gymnasts do advance to nationals, but it's very difficult, especially in a regional like this when making nationals for a single event requires beating Oklahoma's entire lineup. No easy task. Sorry, bars specialists. Wofford's in the house.<br />
<br />
In the all-around, Nebraska has several competitive AAers because, as usual, there are only about three and a quarter healthy gymnasts on this team. Blanske, Williams, Laeng and Breen are all back in the AA with 39.400 potential, and any two of them could advance to nationals if Nebraska doesn't make it. Of course, if Nebraska doesn't make it, that probably means at least a couple of them didn't do so much with the great in this meet, but that's why there are four. Two probably still will. <br />
<br />
If Nebraska does qualify and Arkansas does not, then Wellick becomes the clear pick to advance as an individual. She's the only AAer for Arkansas, so for the other spot, money probably goes on Mollie Drenth, who is capable of 39.3s/39.4s and could also quite realistically knock out some of the Nebraska gymnasts if that's the scenario. Angel Metcalf of Iowa is also in the hunt, though Drenth probably has higher scoring potential. CMU will put up Bolender, Teet, and Janowicz in the all-around, but they're lower down the scoring chart and would need mistakes from Nebraskans/Iowans to get in. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2