Ideal Performance and RQS Update

My primary complaint with RQS as a ranking barometer is that it reduces the season to such a small sample size of six meets that it ends up measuring ideal team performance rather than providing a comprehensive look at the whole season, highs and lows. Teams are essentially able to yell, "Takeover!" on all their bad meets as long as they have six good ones. As a result, mercurial teams usually end up over-ranked and consistent ones end up under-ranked. In the postseason, it is often only a few teams that meet or exceed RQS. The majority of teams underperform this number.

Of course, the winners do beat their RQS (and everyone else's). Ideal performance, while maybe not the most illuminating way to rank teams after a season of performances, does give us a sense of what a team is capable of doing at Championships and what it will have to strive to beat in order to win. So let's take it a step further and look at the ideal performances for each top 12 team as recorded so far this season (season highs on each event).

Since home scores can usually get a little imaginative, take this with a necessary shaker of salt. This is not a predictor of postseason scoring but a guide to team potential. As a reference point, over the last few years, the national champion has ended up with a Super Six score somewhere between two and five tenths lower than the season ideal. Teams almost never exceed their season ideals in the postseason, so also take this as a potential indicator of postseason ceiling (with, of course, a few weeks left to improve these numbers). Next week, I'll come down off this cloud and look at road scores. 

Team ideal performances - (season high scores on each apparatus)

1. Florida
Vault: 49.625
Bars: 49.675
Beam: 49.600
Floor: 49.700
Total: 198.600 (Rank: 1)

2. Oklahoma
Vault: 49.525
Bars: 49.575
Beam: 49.600
Floor: 49.675
Total: 198.375 (Rank: 2)
(Hmm, that number looks familiar.)

3. Michigan
Vault: 49.400
Bars: 49.375
Beam: 49.275
Floor: 49.625
Total: 197.675 (Rank: 8)
The lower scoring ceiling may be a concern for the Wolverines as we head to the final weeks.

4. LSU
Vault: 49.550
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.275
Floor: 49.525
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)
(As I mentioned on Monday, LSU does quite well in the ideal world. It's whether they can hit beam to make it to the ideal world that is cause for concern.)

5. Alabama
Vault: 49.475
Bars: 49.400
Beam: 49.425
Floor: 49.500
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)

6. UCLA
Vault: 49.350
Bars: 49.300
Beam: 49.300
Floor: 49.550
Total: 197.500 (Rank: 11)
(This is why people are worried about you, UCLA.)

  
7. Utah
Vault: 49.500
Bars: 49.300
Beam: 49.325
Floor: 49.575
Total: 197.700 (Rank: 7)

8. Georgia
Vault: 49.550
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.425
Floor: 49.375
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)

9. Stanford
Vault: 49.425
Bars: 49.400
Beam: 49.475
Floor: 49.500
Total: 197.800 (Rank: T3)

10. Oregon State
Vault: 49.425
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.175
Floor: 49.325
Total: 197.375 (Rank: 12)

11. Auburn
Vault: 49.300
Bars: 49.275
Beam: 49.425
Floor: 49.525
Total: 197.525 (Rank: T9)

12. Nebraska
Vault: 49.375
Bars: 49.450
Beam: 49.325
Floor: 49.375
Total: 197.525 (Rank: T9)
(Nebraska's number goes higher if we include Monday's meet, but that is not officially part of the rankings yet.)

As we see from these ideals, most teams besides Florida and Oklahoma are at a very similar level when they hit to current potential, which should make for a very exciting Semifinal day.  
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And now, the RQS picture. As before, bold scores cannot be dropped.

1. Florida (Current RQS: 197.440)
Road Score 1: 197.575
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 196.575
Road/Home Score 1: 198.425
Road Home Score 2: 198.100
Road/Home Score 3: 197.650

2. Oklahoma (Current RQS: 197.410)
Road Score 1: 197.625
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 197.375
Road/Home Score 1: 198.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.325
Road/Home Score 3: 197.275

With Florida on a bye and Oklahoma with two home meets, the Sooners are in strong shape to move back up to #1, needing a 197.450 at one of the meets to pass Florida.

3. Michigan (Current RQS: 197.080)
Road Score 1: 197.300
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.925
Road/Home Score 1: 197.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.350
Road/Home Score 3: 196.900

4. LSU (Current RQS: 196.965)
Road Score 1: 197.275
Road Score 2: 197.100
Road Score 3: 196.975
Road/Home Score 1: 197.050
Road/Home Score 2: 196.875
Road/Home Score 3: 196.825

5. Alabama (Current RQS: 196.910)
Road Score 1: 197.100
Road Score 2: 196.950
Road Score 3: 196.850
Road/Home Score 1: 197.650
Road/Home Score 2: 197.075
Road/Home Score 3: 196.575

6. UCLA (Current RQS: 196.765)
Road Score 1: 197.200
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.375
Road/Home Score 1: 197.425
Road/Home Score 2: 196.950
Road/Home Score 3: 196.375

7. Utah (Current RQS: 196.740)
Road Score 1: 197.125
Road Score 2: 196.600
Road Score 3: 195.975
Road/Home Score 1: 197.300
Road/Home Score 2: 197.050
Road/Home Score 3: 196.950

8. Georgia (Current RQS: 196.725)
Road Score 1: 196.825
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.775
Road/Home Score 1: 197.500
Road/Home Score 2: 197.000
Road/Home Score 3: 196.200

9. Stanford (Current RQS: 196.590)
Road Score 1: 197.075
Road Score 2: 196.450
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 197.275
Road/Home Score 2: 197.200
Road/Home Score 3: 196.200

10. Oregon State (Current RQS: 196.565)
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.300
Road/Home Score 1: 196.925
Road/Home Score 2: 196.725
Road/Home Score 3: 196.050

11. Auburn (Current RQS: 196.495)
Road Score 1: 196.725
Road Score 2: 196.575
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 197.175
Road/Home Score 2: 196.825
Road/Home Score 3: 196.325

12. Nebraska (Current RQS: 196.365)
Road Score 1: 196.300
Road Score 2: 196.150
Road Score 3: 195.625
Road/Home Score 1: 197.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.050
Road/Home Score 3: 196.700
(Nebraska's RQS is 196.460 if we include Monday's score of 197.675, but they have three road meets remaining and three road scores that need dropping to get that ranking up.)

13. Denver (Current RQS: 196.150)
Road Score 1: 196.800
Road Score 2: 196.400
Road Score 3: 195.850
Road/Home Score 1: 196.600
Road/Home Score 2: 196.050
Road/Home Score 3: 195.850

14. Minnesota (Current RQS: 196.130)
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 195.550
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 196.800
Road/Home Score 2: 196.775
Road/Home Score 3: 196.000

15. Penn State (Current RQS: 195.845)
Road Score 1: 196.700
Road Score 2: 196.300
Road Score 3: 195.150
Road/Home Score 1: 196.700
Road/Home Score 2: 195.575
Road/Home Score 3: 195.500

16. Arizona (Current RQS: 195.775)
Road Score 1: 195.950
Road Score 2: 195.800
Road Score 3: 195.200
Road/Home Score 1: 196.500
Road/Home Score 2: 196.075
Road/Home Score 3: 195.850

17. Kent State (Current RQS: 195.755)
Road Score 1: 195.800
Road Score 2: 195.800
Road Score 3: 195.450
Road/Home Score 1: 196.250
Road/Home Score 2: 196.050
Road/Home Score 3: 195.675

18. Ohio State (Current RQS: 195.750)
Road Score 1: 195.950
Road Score 2: 195.575
Road Score 3: 195.000
Road/Home Score 1: 196.300
Road/Home Score 2: 196.250
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975

19. Illinois (Current RQS: 195.685)
Road Score 1: 196.350
Road Score 2: 195.450
Road Score 3: 195.100
Road/Home Score 1: 196.125
Road/Home Score 2: 195.975
Road/Home Score 3: 195.775

20. Kentucky (Current RQS: 195.635)
Road Score 1: 196.500
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 195.825
Road/Home Score 2: 195.500
Road/Home Score 3: 195.250

21. West Virginia (Current RQS: 195.625)
Road Score 1: 195.775
Road Score 2: 195.150
Road Score 3: 194.675
Road/Home Score 1: 196.550
Road/Home Score 2: 196.375
Road/Home Score 3: 196.150

22. Washington (Current RQS: 195.520)
Road Score 1: 196.000
Road Score 2: 195.950
Road Score 3: 194.875
Road/Home Score 1: 196.025
Road/Home Score 2: 195.975
Road/Home Score 3: 194.800

23. Boise State (Current RQS: 195.485)
Road Score 1: 195.575
Road Score 2: 194.700
Road Score 3: 194.525
Road/Home Score 1: 196.575
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 196.300

24. Maryland (Current RQS: 195.435)
Road Score 1: 195.975
Road Score 2: 195.300
Road Score 3: 195.000
Road/Home Score 1: 196.175
Road/Home Score 2: 195.600
Road/Home Score 3: 195.300

25. Arkansas (Current RQS: 195.435)
Road Score 1: 195.650
Road Score 2: 195.625
Road Score 3: 193.075
Road/Home Score 1: 197.100
Road/Home Score 2: 196.650
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175
(Watch out for Arkansas once that 193 goes away this weekend.)