March 16, 2015

Week 10 Rankings and Final RQS Scenarios

Dear everyone, you're a tremendous disappointment. The end. It was the final week of the regular season, and you couldn't even manage a single 198? No 10s for falls? Worthless. The most insane thing that happened over the weekend was that time Tory Wilson's arm died in the middle of her final pass and she still got a 9.650, and that was barely surprising. Plus, all the seniors are getting married immediately upon finishing their final beam routines even though they were junior elites 4 months ago. Is college gymnastics just an elaborate dating website and no one informed me?



With just one week of meets remaining until we get our regional on, it's time for another look at how  regional placement would work if the season ended today, which gives us a chance to see which teams currently find themselves in disastrous scenarios that they need to get themselves out of. I'm talking to you, Oregon State. Oregon State has missed nationals two years in a row, and getting paired with Oklahoma and Stanford would make an ignominious three-peat a little too possible.

REGIONAL 1: [1] Oklahoma (host), [12] Oregon State, [13] Stanford
REGIONAL 2: [2] Florida, [11] Penn State, [14] Denver
REGIONAL 3: [3] LSU, [10] Nebraska, [15] Boise State
REGIONAL 4: [4] Utah, [9] Georgia, [16] Illinois
REGIONAL 5: [5] Alabama, [8] Auburn (host), [17] Arizona
REGIONAL 6: [6] Michigan, [7] UCLA, [18] Arkansas

The main criticism I usually level at the regional seed organization system is that, since two teams advance from each regional competition, the best teams end up with the toughest challengers (the #1 team getting the #13 team as its 3rd seed), while the weaker teams get the easier challengers (the #6 and #7 teams getting the #18 team as a 3rd seed). But this year, the quality of the #3 seeds is high enough across the board that all the regionals would contain legitimate challengers if this ended up as the final scenario, and some of the lower-ranked top seeds would have some of the toughest 3rd seeds. That Michigan/UCLA/Arkansas regional would be no fun. For them. Tons of fun for us, just like the potential Oregon State/Stanford pairing and the Alabama/Auburn repeat pairing. And don't forget about Cal, a dangerous host team still currently lurking outside the seeded spots.

Still, there's one more meet to go and a lot of positional maneuvering to do, so let's get to the rankings. I have included each team's maximum possible RQS after conference championships to provide a sense of how high each team can possibly climb. I've also extended the rankings down through all teams capable of sneaking into the top 36 and advancing to regionals.

Week 10 rankings - (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.860
Week 10: 197.725
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman 9.950; UB - Wofford 9.900; BB - Clark 9.925; FX - Dowell, Brown 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.875
Road Score 3: 197.725
Road/Home Score 1: 198.500
Road/Home Score 2: 197.850
Road/Home Score 3: 197.700

Maximum RQS: 198.020

With the highest maximum RQS, the Sooners still control their destiny when it comes to the #1 ranking, but it's much more of a fight than you might think based on Oklahoma's season-long stranglehold on the top spot, having held it for the last 3 billion weeks. Because Florida has a pretty low score still to drop, Oklahoma would need a 198.175 at Big 12s to guarantee season-ending #1. It's possible, especially at home. They've certainly done it before, but a 198 is never an easy score.

The other consideration right now for Oklahoma is the injury to Erica Brewer, suddenly making the Sooner lineups a bit more questionable than they were before (if she's not able to return quickly). Natalie Brown did perform well as a replacement over the weekend, with lower difficulty but clean gymnastics. If they need to keep using her on floor, it might not be a bad idea to pull a Bridgey and keep her in the final spot.

2. Florida – 197.750
Week 10: 197.900
Week 10 leaders: AA - Hunter 39.675; VT - Sloan 9.950; UB - Sloan 10.000; BB - Boyce 9.925; FX - Hunter 9.975

RQS
Road Score 1: 198.100
Road Score 2: 197.425
Road Score 3: 197.200
Road/Home Score 1: 198.225
Road/Home Score 2: 198.125
Road/Home Score 3: 197.900

Maximum RQS: 197.955

Florida's streak of four-straight years finishing the season at #1 is under severe threat. Still, the Gators do remain the only team with a shot at unseating Oklahoma for the top spot, with a relatively modest 197.200 that can be dropped with strong performance at SECs. At minimum, the Gators need a 197.775 at SECs to have a chance to move ahead of the Sooners, which is pretty realistic. If Florida doesn't get a high 197 at SECs, it will count as a missed meet. It's time to bring the quality. To win SECs, it's going to take at least a high 197, if not a 198. 

3. LSU – 197.630
Week 10: 197.275
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Savona 9.950; UB - Wyrick 9.875; BB - Jordan, Gnat 9.950; FX - Hall 10.000

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 197.350
Road/Home Score 1: 198.375
Road/Home Score 2: 198.075
Road/Home Score 3: 197.950

Maximum RQS: 197.835

LSU was not able to record a counting score last weekend after a bars issue in the very first rotation. It should be noted that they did elect to rest a number of contributors in that meet before everything starts to get real, but that score does mean that LSU can no longer challenge for the #1 ranking. The Tigers can still possibly move ahead of Florida, but that will be challenging as well since the deficit is now more than a tenth. LSU would need at least a 197.975 at SECs to move ahead of Florida, and probably more than that since Florida should easily eclipse that drop-able 197.200. The biggest concern for LSU right now is getting Courville back in the AA. These teams at the top are too good for LSU to be able to survive without a 100% Courville.

4. Utah – 197.605
Week 10: 197.275
Week 10 leaders: AA - Wilson 39.275; VT - Lee 9.925; UB - Dabritz 9.975; BB - Rowe, Stover 9.900; FX - Tutka 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.850
Road Score 2: 197.275
Road Score 3: 197.025
Road/Home Score 1: 198.250
Road/Home Score 2: 198.050
Road/Home Score 3: 197.825

Maximum RQS: 197.690

You alright there, Utah? What was that floor rotation exactly? Are we past that? OK, good. Like LSU, Utah had one bad event over the weekend that prevented them from taking advantage of a golden opportunity to move into the top 3. Because the Utes are coming to the rescue of Mess-izona State and emergency hosting Pac-12s, they don't have much room to move up in RQS anymore since all those road scores have to count. They could still potentially move ahead of LSU, but likewise would need a 197.975 at Pac-12s for a shot, along with some help from LSU, so #4 seems the most likely finish. They'll be fine with that.

5. Alabama – 197.425
Week 10: 197.500
Week 10 leaders: AA - Beers 39.650; VT - Beers 9.950; UB - Clark, McNeer 9.875; BB - Williams, Beers 9.950; FX - Beers 9.950

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.675
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 197.200
Road/Home Score 1: 197.800
Road/Home Score 2: 197.500
Road/Home Score 3: 197.400
 
Maximum RQS: 197.545

Alabama is set. The Tide cannot move up any higher that their current ranking and cannot get caught by any other team, so 5th it is. It's a solid finish for a team with a lot of uncertainty coming into the season, but they're still a little more prone to mistakes than we usually expect from Alabama teams once March comes around. Right now, the Katie Bailey question is the biggest one dogging Alabama. She has returned on bars but still hasn't been quite herself. She's a necessary piece, and it's going to be difficult to keep pace with hit meets from Florida and LSU at SECs without her routines.

6. Michigan – 197.185
Week 10: 197.000
Week 10 leaders: AA - Artz 39.550; VT - Artz, Sugiyama 9.950; UB - Artz, Brown 9.850; BB - Artz 9.900; FX - Sugiyama 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.675
Road Score 2: 197.125
Road Score 3: 197.000
Road/Home Score 1: 197.300
Road/Home Score 2: 197.250
Road/Home Score 3: 197.250

Maximum RQS: 197.270

Like Alabama, Michigan cannot move up any higher than the current ranking, but unlike Alabama, Michigan will have to fend off challenges from the teams below to remain in this spot. UCLA is the biggest threat, but that is pretty much meaningless. Even if UCLA does pass Michigan, both teams would still end up in the 6/7 regional, so it's a wash. Auburn does have a chance to challenge and move up as high as 6th as well, but Michigan can fend them off with 197.400, which would guarantee them a spot in that 6/7 regional.

7. UCLA – 197.130
Week 10: 197.175
Week 10 leaders: AA - Meraz 39.300; VT - Peszek 9.925; UB - Lee 9.900; BB - Peszek 9.950; FX - Bynum 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.350
Road Score 2: 197.175
Road Score 3: 197.075
Road/Home Score 1: 197.950
Road/Home Score 2: 197.050
Road/Home Score 3: 197.000

Maximum RQS: 197.320

UCLA had an odd meet at Arkansas. Val wasn't there, so what's the point of having the meet if the star of the team isn't even in attendance? She wasn't the only thing missing. The Bruins are still withholding a number of routines that should be in the lineups on vault and floor, though that's normal UCLA behavior for this point in the year. A million people are each till doing one event, and I would expect a few of them to be spectators starting next week.

But still, even though some of the lineups were a little flat, UCLA did enough to move up another spot in the rankings and keep scratching away at those bad scores. With a higher maximum RQS than Michigan, UCLA can dictate how this plays out. The Bruins need at least a 197.300 to have a chance at moving ahead of Michigan and can guarantee it with a 197.725. Auburn is also chasing, so to ensure that they stay ahead of Auburn, the Bruins need a 197.425 at Pac-12s. That seems quite doable with the right lineups, unless they have a disaster like last year.

8. Auburn – 197.025
Week 10: 197.100
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Atkinson, Guy, Rott 9.900; UB - Walker 9.900; BB - Walker 9.900; FX - Hlawek 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.025
Road Score 2: 196.875
Road Score 3: 196.825
Road/Home Score 1: 197.750
Road/Home Score 2: 197.300
Road/Home Score 3: 197.100

Maximum RQS: 197.210

Auburn has fallen to 8th but is still a realistic challenger to move up at least one spot if not two. It will be tough, though. At minimum, they'll need a 197.375 at SECs to have a shot at challenging UCLA (197.625 to challenge Michigan) and would probably need more. Lower in the rankings, Georgia cannot catch Auburn, but Nebraska still could. The Tigers will need a 197.125 at SECs to guarantee that they remain at least at #8.

Auburn wasn't able to make a big dent in the RQS rankings after a 197.100 over the weekend, which featured some Caitlin Atkinson resting in the final meet before championship season, but even though 197.100 is low compared to our expectations for top teams at this point in the season, it's still historically high for Auburn. Getting that kind of score is a very new thing.

9. Georgia – 196.875
Week 10: 197.450
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Davis, Jay 9.875; UB - Brown 9.950; BB - Vaculik 9.900; FX - Marino 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.950
Road Score 2: 196.850
Road Score 3: 196.775
Road/Home Score 1: 197.450
Road/Home Score 2: 196.975
Road/Home Score 3: 196.825

Maximum RQS: 197.010

A 197! Praise be! Georgia even moved up a spot in the rankings! That vital 197.450 does give the Gym Dogs a little bit more wiggle room to improve their RQS, but not quite enough. They will not be able to advance any higher than 9th and are in some danger of being re-passed by Nebraska and falling back to 10th. Because Nebraska has the higher maximum RQS, Georgia does not control its own fate. Nebraska could pass regardless of what Georgia does, but frankly there's not much difference between 9th and 10th in regional placement, so it doesn't matter that much. The bigger issue is that no matter where they finish, Georgia is going to face a #3 seed at regionals that is easily capable of a mid 196 (or high 196 on a good day). This weekend, in that early session of "home" SEC championships, Georgia needs to prove that beating a mid-high 196 team is easy and that they don't need to be perfect to do it. Because you're not always perfect at regionals. 

10. Nebraska – 196.865
Week 10: 196.000
Week 10 leaders: AA - DeZiel 39.425; VT - Lambert, Williams 9.900; UB - DeZiel 9.875; BB - DeZiel 9.925; FX - Blanske 9.875

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.075
Road Score 2: 196.650
Road Score 3: 196.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.325
Road/Home Score 2: 197.225
Road/Home Score 3: 197.125

Maximum RQS: 197.080

The Huskers have fallen to 10th after an unhelpful 196.000 at Pre-Big Tens that, by most accounts, came from a combination of errors and getting totally hosed with the floor scores. Nonetheless, with a low road score that's itching to be dropped, Nebraska can still gain a couple spots and shake things up with a good showing at Big Tens. They'll need a 197.075 to have a chance at moving ahead of Auburn, but can guarantee moving back ahead of Georgia with a 197.000. 

11. Penn State – 196.555
Week 10: 196.650
Week 10 leaders: AA - Tasng 39.300; VT - Sibson, Tasng 9.900; UB - Raygoza 9.900; BB - Sanabria-Robles 9.875; FX - Sibson 9.850

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.750
Road Score 2: 196.650
Road Score 3: 196.175
Road/Home Score 1: 197.025
Road/Home Score 2: 196.650
Road/Home Score 3: 196.550

Maximum RQS: 196.725

There's a big break after the top 10, so Penn State has no chance of sneaking up any higher. But, one of the most significant races to watch on Saturday will be among Penn State, Oregon State, and Stanford because I think both Penn State and Oregon State will be desperate to avoid getting Stanford at regionals. Yes, all three teams have hit 197 this year and they're all ranked similarly, but Stanford is a nightmare draw because of how many potential 9.9s they have. They're so capable of a huge score, even if it's a frustratingly infrequent development. Penn State or Oregon State could have a great meet and still get Ivana-Hong-9.950-ed out of contention. As of right now, Penn State would draw Denver and Oregon State would draw Stanford. You'd rather draw Denver.

Both Oregon State and Stanford have the higher maximum score than Penn State, so their performances at Pac-12s will be the biggest factors in dictating where Penn State ends up. 

12. Oregon State – 196.550
Week 10: 197.075
Week 10 leaders: AA - Gardiner 39.450; VT - Aufiero, Keeker 9.925; UB - Aufiero, McMillan 9.875; BB - Gardiner 9.850; FX - Perez, Tang 9.950

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.250
Road Score 2: 196.700
Road Score 3: 196.450
Road/Home Score 1: 197.075
Road/Home Score 2: 196.275
Road/Home Score 3: 196.250

Maximum RQS: 196.750

Oregon State didn't have a good beam showing in their home finale, but they used a YIPPEE HOORAY senior night floor score to break 197 anyway and move up a few crucial spots in the rankings. Beam really is a worry, but this team does have enough Tang, Gardiner, Perez, McMillan, Aufiero 9.9s on one or two events to remain a concern for any school facing them at regionals. To be assured of moving ahead of Penn State, the Beavs will need a 197.150 at Pac-12s, though they can still get caught by Stanford. 

13. Stanford – 196.530
Week 10: No meet

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.625
Road Score 2: 196.525
Road Score 3: 196.275
Road/Home Score 1: 197.525
Road/Home Score 2: 197.000
Road/Home Score 3: 196.225

Maximum RQS: 196.790

Stanford has the highest maximum RQS of all the teams ranked outside the top 10, but it's still going to take some serious doing to reach that mark and get up to the #11 ranking they probably deserve, and that would make for the cleanest regionals draw (also the least fun). The Cardinal will need a 197.225 to make sure they get above Penn State and a 197.350 to make sure they get above Oregon State. Looking at the roster, you'd say, "Yeah, 197.3, easy," but it has only happened once this season, and that was at home. Stanford still has work to do to prove that this isn't another one of those years where they're crazy talented and then finish 11th at nationals. 

14. Denver – 196.455
Week 10: 196.850
Week 10 leaders: AA - McGee 9.950; VT - Ross 9.900; UB - McGee 9.900; BB - Ross 9.850; FX - McGee 9.950

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.850
Road Score 2: 196.450
Road Score 3: 196.150

Road/Home Score 1: 196.925
Road/Home Score 2: 196.725
Road/Home Score 3: 196.100

Maximum RQS: 196.620

Denver jumped up all the way to 14th from a ranking of 18th last week after getting a road 196.850, the latest in a series of 196s and one that is made more important because it wasn't just another one of those "Denver got a 196.8 at home and that's a thing now?" meets that happens every year. Another big 196 may happen again this weekend because Denver is hosting the Mountain Rim Championships, which sounds so much like a fake event that would be on Make It or Break It. Or when any sports movie has to make up a competition, and it's always called the Central Alliance Cup, and you're like, um that's nothing.

While Denver's max RQS is lower than that of the teams ranked above, they could also make it as high as 11th if things fall their way at the Central Alliance Cup. They need a 196.500 to begin to threaten the teams ranked above, and that's definitely possible. Denver is the first team that isn't mathematically guaranteed a spot among the 18 seeds, though it's still very likely with just 196.225 required to make it official.

15. Boise State – 196.375
Week 10: 196.225
Week 10 leaders: AA - Morris 39.275; VT - Krentz, Morris, Perkins 9.900; UB - Morris, Perkins 9.875; BB - Josbacher 9.775; FX - Morris 9.850

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.625
Road Score 2: 196.225
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 196.800
Road/Home Score 2: 196.725
Road/Home Score 3: 196.275

Maximum RQS: 196.530

Boise State doesn't have quite the same maximum as Denver, and while they can conceivably move up as high as a tie with Stanford if everything falls correctly, the main focus will be on securing one of the 18 seeded spots. They look pretty good to do it since quite a few teams would need to pass to knock them out, but the magic number to score this weekend that would make a top 18 spot official is 196.550.

16. Illinois – 196.355
Week 10: 196.050
Week 10 leaders: AA - Horth 39.350; VT - Horth 9.850; UB - O'Connor 9.900; BB - O'Connor 9.875; FX - Horth 9.800

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.975
Road Score 2: 196.425
Road Score 3: 196.275
Road/Home Score 1: 196.500
Road/Home Score 2: 196.400
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175 

Maximum RQS: 196.515

Like Boise State, Illinois' maximum score is not as high as the other teams ranked in this area, so their performance this weekend is about solidifying a claim to one of those seeded spots. They're in OK shape, but it's definitely not a guarantee since teams like Minnesota and Arizona have higher maximum scores (and mid-195s still to drop). Both can realistically pass Illinois, and Illinois' magic number to keep a seeded spot is 196.800, which is a fairly tough ask. 

17. Arizona – 196.290
Week 10: 196.850
Week 10 leaders: AA - Cindric 39.350; VT - Sisler 9.850; UB - Cindric 9.925; BB - Fox 9.900; FX - Mills 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.125
Road Score 2: 196.050
Road Score 3: 195.450
Road/Home Score 1: 196.850
Road/Home Score 2: 196.625
Road/Home Score 3: 196.475

Maximum RQS: 196.625

Watch out for Arizona. On the strength of another big home score, achieved without Allie Flores as this team attempts to manage the near-Kentucky number of injuries that are piling up this season, Arizona has moved into a pretty threatening position considering that they still have that 195.450 to get rid of at Pac-12s. Even though the Wildcats can potentially get as high as #11, that's unrealistic since they would need to pass so many teams to get there, but they can guarantee jumping ahead of both Boise State and Illinois with a 196.650 at Pac-12s, which would allow them to draw a more attackable #2 seed at regionals.

With that low score to drop, Arizona's magic number to stay in the top 18 is just 196.400.

18. Arkansas – 196.275
Week 10: 195.900
Week 10 leaders: AA - Zaziski 39.450; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Zaziski 9.950; BB - Dillard 9.850; FX - Elswick 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.650
Road Score 2: 196.250
Road Score 3: 196.250
Road/Home Score 1: 196.650
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 195.900

Maximum RQS: 196.425

Because the Razorbacks don't have a 197, or even a big 196, that could be counted if things go well over the weekend, their maximum score is fairly pedestrian. There's not a lot they can do now. Because both Minnesota and Cal have higher maximum scores, Arkansas does not control its own seeded destiny. If both Minnesota and Cal have big days at conference championships, they can jump ahead of Arkansas and potentially knock them out of a seeded spot, even if Arkansas gets a season-high score.

Still, talk about a no-fun #4 seed to draw if Arkansas does end up getting knocked out of the top 18. It's bad enough having to worry about these 196.8-capable #3 seeds.

19. Minnesota – 196.250
Week 10: 196.450
Week 10 leaders: AA - C Gardner 39.100; VT - Mable 9.950; UB - Tomson, Covers 9.925; BB - Hanley 9.850; FX - Mable 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.875
Road Score 2: 196.350
Road Score 3: 195.450
Road/Home Score 1: 196.675
Road/Home Score 2: 196.450
Road/Home Score 3: 196.325

Maximum RQS: 196.535

Minnesota is another team like Arizona with a very low score to drop, and that could allow them to climb the rankings significantly.  Even though they're currently ranked outside the top 18, they're right in the fight for a #3 seed and can even guarantee it with a 196.600 this weekend.

20. Cal – 196.190
Week 10: 196.125
Week 10 leaders: AA - Williams 39.475; VT - Williams, Palomares 9.850; UB - Williams 9.925; BB - Palomares 9.800; FX - Williams 9.925

 RQS
Road Score 1: 196.600
Road Score 2: 196.125
Road Score 3: 196.100
Road/Home Score 1: 197.325
Road/Home Score 2: 196.225
Road/Home Score 3: 195.900

Maximum RQS: 196.475

It's going to be much tougher for Cal, but they too have a chance to move up into the seeded spots if things fall correctly. To do it, they'll first need to move ahead of Arkansas. They do have a higher maximum score than Arkansas, so it's possible, but it would take a 197.100 at Pac-12s to guarantee it, which is tough. More likely, they'll have to hope Arkansas (and at least one other team) does not approach its maximum RQS and becomes beatable with a lower score. For Cal, it very much depends on how the other teams fare. But remember, Cal is hosting a regional and is another one of those very dangerous floaters regardless of seeding.

21. Central Michigan – 196.110
Week 10: 196.225
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Moraw, Teet 9.850; UB - Fagan 9.900; BB - Noonan 9.900; FX - Moraw 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.400
Road Score 2: 196.225
Road Score 3: 196.175
Road/Home Score 1: 196.150
Road/Home Score 2: 196.125
Road/Home Score 3: 195.875

Maximum RQS: 196.215

Now we move into the batch of teams that cannot move into the top 18 yet are still guaranteed to make regionals. That's everyone from Central Michigan through the rest of the 20s in the rankings. These teams will be the 4th and 5th seeds at various regional competitions and will be at the mercy of the draw to see where they fall.

22. Washington – 195.960
Week 10: 196.600
Week 10 leaders: AA - Northey 38.725; VT - Northey, Stowe 9.850; UB - Janik 9.900; BB - McCartin 9.900; FX - Podlucky 9.875

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.600
Road Score 2: 196.300
Road Score 3: 196.125
Road/Home Score 1: 195.950
Road/Home Score 2: 195.775
Road/Home Score 3: 195.650 

Maximum RQS: 196.150

23. Southern Utah – 195.945
Week 10: 196.325
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Ramirez 9.850; UB - Ramirez 9.875; BB - Jaworski 9.900; FX - Webb 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.225
Road Score 2: 195.750
Road Score 3: 195.500
Road/Home Score 1: 196.475
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 195.925

Maximum RQS: 196.140

24. Iowa – 195.790
Week 10: 196.425
Week 10 leaders: AA - Metcalf 39.275; VT - Glover 9.900; UB - Drenth 9.925; BB - Drenth 9.900; FX - Drenth 9.800

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.425
Road Score 2: 195.850
Road Score 3: 195.225
Road/Home Score 1: 196.375
Road/Home Score 2: 195.775
Road/Home Score 3: 195.725

Maximum RQS: 196.030

25. Kentucky – 195.735
Week 10: 196.175
Week 10 leaders: AA - Waltz 39.400; VT - Phipps 9.850; UB - Waltz 9.850; BB - Waltz, Mitchell 9.925; FX - Mitchell, Waltz 9.850

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.950
Road Score 2: 195.825
Road Score 3: 194.975
Road/Home Score 1: 196.575
Road/Home Score 2: 196.175
Road/Home Score 3: 195.750

Maximum RQS: 196.055

26. New Hampshire – 195.660
Week 10: 196.150
Week 10 leaders: AA - Pflieger  39.325; VT - Pflieger 9.875; UB - Kerouac 9.825; BB - Hill 9.900; FX - Broccoli, Pflieger, Rudiger 9.850

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.150
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 194.700
Road/Home Score 1: 196.525
Road/Home Score 2: 195.900
Road/Home Score 3: 195.475

Maximum RQS: 196.025

27. Missouri – 195.635
Week 10: 196.150
Week 10 leaders: AA - Schugel 39.300; VT - Schugel 9.800; UB - Schugel 9.850; BB - Kappler 9.900; FX - Harris 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.975
Road Score 2: 195.850
Road Score 3: 195.275
Road/Home Score 1: 196.150
Road/Home Score 2: 195.800
Road/Home Score 3: 195.275

Maximum RQS: 195.810

Back to regionals! It's been a hard road.

28. Michigan State – 195.610
Week 10: 195.250
Week 10 leaders: AA - Burt 39.075; VT - Cartwright 9.875; UB - Burt, Cartwright 9.775; BB - Westney 9.850; FX - Lagoski 9.800

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.325
Road Score 2: 196.275
Road Score 3: 195.625
Road/Home Score 1: 195.750
Road/Home Score 2: 195.250
Road/Home Score 3: 195.150

Maximum RQS: 195.845

29. Utah State –195.555
Week 10 A: 196.350
Week 10 A leaders: AA - Landes, Martinez 39.250; VT - McIntire 9.875; UB - Cuba 9.800; BB - Belliston, Sanzotti 9.825; FX - Landes, McIntire, Sanzotti 9.875

Week 10 B: 196.325
Week 10 B leaders: AA - Landes 39.250; VT - Kerr 9.850; UB - Cuba, Peel 9.850; BB - Cuba 9.875; FX - McIntire 9.875

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.325
Road Score 2: 195.750
Road Score 3: 195.500
Road/Home Score 1: 196.350
Road/Home Score 2: 195.100
Road/Home Score 3: 195.100

Maximum RQS: 195.805

30. Iowa State – 195.390
Week 10: 195.300
Week 10 leaders: AA - Brown 39.400; VT - Middlekoop 9.800; UB - Ledesma 9.875; BB - Brown 9.950; FX - Young 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.375
Road Score 2: 195.175
Road Score 3: 194.950
Road/Home Score 1: 195.950
Road/Home Score 2: 195.775
Road/Home Score 3: 195.675

Maximum RQS: 195.590

This is the cutoff. Iowa State is guaranteed a spot at Regionals, but all the lower teams are at least somewhat vulnerable, some more than others.
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31. BYU – 195.365
Week 10: 196.375
Week 10 leaders: AA - Johnson 39.450; VT - Johnson 9.925; UB - Van Mierlo 9.850; BB - Schult 9.875; FX - Johnson 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.375
Road Score 2: 195.675
Road Score 3: 195.425
Road/Home Score 1: 195.450
Road/Home Score 2: 195.300
Road/Home Score 3: 194.975

Maximum RQS: 195.645

To guarantee regionals qualification, BYU must score 195.100 this weekend.

32. Ohio State – 195.355
Week 10: 195.250
Week 10 leaders: AA - Harrison 39.125; VT - Van Putten 9.850; UB - Van Putten 9.800; BB - Harrison 9.900; FX - Harrison, Mattern 9.775

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.650
Road Score 2: 195.250
Road Score 3: 195.200
Road/Home Score 1: 196.200
Road/Home Score 2: 195.650
Road/Home Score 3: 195.025

Maximum RQS: 195.590

To guarantee regionals qualification, Ohio State must score 195.200 this weekend.

33. West Virginia – 195.345
Week 10: 196.075
Week 10 leaders: AA - Haley 39.075; VT - Lawrence, Muhammad 9.850; UB - Goldberg 9.900; BB - Gillette, Goldberg, Idell 9.825; FX - Idell 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.350
Road Score 2: 195.300
Road Score 3: 194.975
Road/Home Score 1: 196.075
Road/Home Score 2: 195.900
Road/Home Score 3: 195.200

Maximum RQS: 195.565

To guarantee regionals qualification, West Virginia must also score 195.200 this weekend. 

34. George Washington – 195.325
Week 10 A: 195.125
Week 10 A leaders: AA - Winstanley 39.375; VT - Corcoran, Drouin-Allaire 9.925; UB - Winstanley 9.825; BB - Winstanley 9.875; FX - Raineri 9.875

Week 10 B: 196.875
Week 10 B leaders: AA - Winstanley 39.550; VT - Drouin-Allaire 9.950; UB - Mishlove, Winstanley 9.850; BB - Winstanley 9.900; FX - Drouin-Allaire 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.725
Road Score 2: 195.125
Road Score 3: 195.025
Road/Home Score 1: 196.875
Road/Home Score 2: 195.725
Road/Home Score 3: 195.025

Maximum RQS: 195.695

To guarantee regionals qualification, George Washington must score 195.350 this weekend.

35. Maryland – 195.290
Week 10: 194.875
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Skochko 9.850; UB - Karen Tang 9.800; BB - Slobodin 9.825; FX - Giameo, Walters 9.750

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.525
Road Score 2: 195.375
Road Score 3: 195.350
Road/Home Score 1: 196.000
Road/Home Score 2: 195.275
Road/Home Score 3: 194.925

Maximum RQS: 195.505

To guarantee regionals qualification, Maryland must score 195.425 this weekend.

36. Eastern Michigan –  195.280
Week 10: 195.525
Week 10 leaders: AA - Willette 39.000; VT - Valentin 9.800; UB - Valentin 9.875; BB - Gervais 9.875; FX - Loehner, Slocum 9.800

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.575
Road Score 2: 195.525
Road Score 3: 195.225
Road/Home Score 1: 195.275
Road/Home Score 2: 195.250
Road/Home Score 3: 195.125

Maximum RQS: 195.370

Eastern Michigan sits in the final regionals spot for the moment, but this is another team that does not control its own destiny. NC State has a higher maximum score, so if Eastern Michigan isn't able to move ahead of any of the higher-ranked teams, they could get passed by NC State and not be able to do anything about it. It will be a nail-biting, wait-and-see day for Eastern Michigan.

37. NC State – 195.270
Week 10: 196.000
Week 10 leaders: AA - Woodford 39.175; VT - Knight 9.875; UB - Turner, Watkins 9.800; BB - Woodford 9.850; FX - Watkins 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 196.175
Road Score 2: 196.000
Road Score 3: 195.075
Road/Home Score 1: 195.850
Road/Home Score 2: 194.800
Road/Home Score 3: 194.625

Maximum RQS: 195.580

NC State has that very low score still to drop and can guarantee moving into the coveted top 36 spots with just a 195.225.

38. Kent State – 195.005 
Week 10: 195.050
Week 10 leaders: AA - None; VT - Drooger, Timko 9.850; UB - Drooger, Romito, Timko 9.825; BB - Stypinski 9.875; FX - Stypinski 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.050
Road Score 2: 194.725
Road Score 3: 193.800
Road/Home Score 1: 196.800
Road/Home Score 2: 195.750
Road/Home Score 3: 195.700

Maximum RQS: 195.225

Kent State cannot advance to Regionals. Road scores. They'll end you.

39. San Jose State – 194.845
Week 10: 194.675
Week 10 leaders: AA - Guyer 39.050; VT - Heinl 9.850; UB - Herr 9.875; BB - Guyer 9.650; FX - Guyer 9.900

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.150
Road Score 2: 195.125
Road Score 3: 194.675
Road/Home Score 1: 195.675
Road/Home Score 2: 194.750
Road/Home Score 3: 194.525

Maximum RQS: 195.075

San Jose State cannot advance to Regionals.

40. Bowling Green – 194.835
Week 10: 195.700
Week 10 leaders: AA - Nocella 39.225; VT - Ali 9.850; UB - Reis 9.850; BB - Ellingboe 9.800; FX - Nocella, Rae 9.850

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.250
Road Score 2: 195.200
Road Score 3: 193.025
Road/Home Score 1: 195.700
Road/Home Score 2: 195.500
Road/Home Score 3: 195.200

Maximum RQS: 195.370

Bowling Green is quite a way back in RQS, but because they have that yucky 193 road score to drop, there's still a chance they can move into the Regionals spots if a bunch of things fall their way on Saturday. To have any chance, they'll need a 195.275 at conference championships, and that is a score they've reached in their last two meets.

41. Davis – 194.795
Week 10: 196.900
Week 10 leaders: AA - Judal 39.450; VT - Montell 9.900; UB - DeFrancesco 9.925; BB - Judal 9.850; FX - Stamates 9.950

RQS
Road Score 1: 195.325
Road Score 2: 194.800
Road Score 3: 193.950
Road/Home Score 1: 196.900
Road/Home Score 2: 195.175
Road/Home Score 3: 194.725

Maximum RQS: 195.385

Davis is also very far back, but because of that insane home score they just got on senior night, their maximum possible score just increased by a significant margin. It's still very unlikely that they'll get up to a top 36 spot because they would need a 196.375 this weekend to have even the vaguest, remotest shot. They haven't come close to getting that score this year except in the most recent meet. Still, it's technically possible.

Starting with North Carolina and Northern Illinois tied at #42, all the remaining teams have been eliminated from Regionals contention.

2 comments:

  1. That whole first paragraph just made my day. AMAZING.

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  2. Based on the way the Sooners staff was checking out Brewer during Bama/Oklahoma meet – moving a finger in front of eyes – I'd guess they were worried about concussion symptoms. It's just an educated guess, but I do know a lot about concussion protocol.

    ReplyDelete