March 19, 2012

Monday Rankings

National Rankings for March 19, 2012
1. Florida – 197.395
2. Oklahoma – 197.310
3. Alabama – 197.155
4. UCLA – 197.140
5. Georgia – 196.995
6. Nebraska – 196.960
7. Utah – 196.705
8. LSU  – 196.550
8. Oregon State – 196.550
10. Arkansas – 196.545
11. Stanford – 196.315
12. Penn State – 196.230
13. Ohio State – 196.115
14. Boise State – 195.990
15. Auburn – 195.965
16. Minnesota – 195.880
17. Arizona – 195.870
18. Denver – 195.865
19. Missouri – 195.825
20. NC State – 195.715
21. Michigan – 195.710
22. Washington – 195.595
23. Illinois – 195.545
24. Kentucky – 195.490
25. Iowa State – 195.275


  • A few minor changes to the rankings from last week. Alabama has moved ahead of UCLA for the #3 spot. The changes around the top of the rankings are only significant right now as teams are attempting to avoid falling into that Auburn Regional (#3 seed as host = dangerous, especially given some of the home scores Auburn has seen). I would say Auburn is less likely to fall than they are to gain this weekend, so it may actually be advantageous to end up at #4. Minnesota is a very attractive potential #3 seed for any of the top teams.
  • In fact, Alabama will have a very nice look at the #2 ranking after SECs. Alabama is still counting a low 196.325 as a road score, so they wouldn't even have to do that well to pass up Oklahoma, even if Oklahoma scores well at home. Even UCLA has an outside shot at passing Oklahoma, but they would need a 197.650 at Pac-12s and help from the Sooners. Alabama also has a mathematical chance to take over #1, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think we can assume that Florida will be the #1 Regional seed again this year.
  • Georgia also has a slim chance to move up. They would need to get into the lowish 197s to have a shot, and UCLA can prevent it completely with a 197.200 themselves. I do expect Georgia to score well at SECs because they have the advantage of what is essentially a home meet that counts as a road score. There is the opportunity for righteous indignation about that, but Florida and Alabama have had the same benefit in past years, Oklahoma had a road meet in Oklahoma City this year, and UCLA has had years of road meets at CSUF where they got home scoring, so it's not exactly new or worth the energy.
  • Regardless of how all that plays out, our top 6 seeds for Regionals will be the current top 6 in some order. Likewise, Ohio State could potentially flip flop with Penn State, but they would still be going to the same Regional, so our group of 7-12 is essentially decided as well. The big issue now is placement. 
  • After the first few weeks of the season, I don't think any of us would have expected to see LSU ranked ahead of Arkansas, but that can certainly change after SECs. With Grable in the lineup, Arkansas is the more talented team, but LSU is on a better peaking trajectory. Arkansas and Oregon State have really fallen off in recent weeks.

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