Utah and the Road

The biggest news to come out of competition last weekend was Utah losing Corrie Lothrop for the season after a torn Achilles during floor warmups. This injury is devastating for the Utes. I'd compare it to UCLA losing Sam Peszek, also the reliable rock of the team, but Utah doesn't have a Vanessa Zamarripa to fall back on. It is unlikely that Dabritz and Tory Wilson's vault can carry that load.

So far this season, the Utes have put up an average score of 196.319, so every meet the team as a whole is averaging 0.319 better than 9.800 (given that a meet of 9.800s would result in 196). Lothrop herself has contributed 14 counting scores to the team so far this season, single-handedly averaging 0.163 over 9.800. So if Lothrop were replaced with 9.800 in every position, the team average would be 196.156, good for #9 in the country instead of #7. That's if they can get 9.800s out of their 7th workers. The future of this team without her on bars and beam will be a story to watch this season.

Another story to watch over the next few weeks will be the evolution of road RQS. Most teams have just three or four road meets left this season, so there is precious little time for those teams that won't want to count any of their current road scores to record viable numbers for the three required road scores. Estimating broadly based on the current trend and past scoring, it's going to take three road scores averaging in the lower 196s (unless there is a monster home score balancing it out) to snatch a top twelve seed at Regionals. For a top six seed, it's looking like it will take closer to a 197 average for the three road scores (once again, assuming regularish home scores).

Below, I have calculated how the top 25 teams currently rank based on the average of their road scores to be used as a guideline for how much improvement/score dropping needs to occur in the coming weeks.

1. Florida – 197.075
2. Oklahoma – 196.950

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Florida currently has just two road scores and would like to drop the 196.575 but probably doesn't need to. Another big score at either Georgia or Utah and the Gators are set. Oklahoma competes about 150 times this season and already has three usable road scores. The next eight meets are about getting two or three more scores over 197 and then posturing for the postseason.
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3. Alabama – 196.700
4. Michigan – 196.675
5. UCLA – 196.650
6. Georgia – 196.488
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This next group is in a healthy position. They all need a couple more solid high 196s, but they have enough mid-196s that falling back on them wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. For them, it will be about pumping up those mid-197 home scores and avoiding any road scores under 196.300 from here on out that would put RQS pressure on a road conference championships performance.
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7. Nebraska – 196.225
8. LSU – 196.167
9. Utah – 195.950
10. Stanford – 195.825
11. Auburn – 195.768
12. Oregon State – 195.606
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This group is primarily the "scores to drop" brigade. LSU has some 195s, Utah has that 195.300 at UCLA, and Oregon State has the Cancun score to contend with. The teams here that challenge for a top-six placement will be the ones who replace those scores with higher 196s in the coming weeks. On the other hand, Auburn shows its strength by being in this group. That road 196.725 will serve the Tigers well, but they still need four more scores over 196 (at least one on the road) to hope for top 12 at Regionals.
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13. Denver – 195.488
14. Arizona – 195.275
14. Maryland – 195.275
16. Kentucky – 195.150
17. Kent State – 194.942
18. Minnesota – 194.925
19. Central Michigan – 194.900
20. Ohio State – 194.758
21. Boise State – 194.700
22. Illinois – 194.533
23. California – 194.350
24. Washington – 194.188
25. Arkansas – 193.075 (Five more road meets, three big scores needed)