March 18, 2013

Week 11 Rankings and Final RQS Update

Depending on whether you consider the conference championships as part of the regular season (they still count for RQS and the results still don't matter, just like all the earlier meets) or the postseason (they have the word championships in them), the regular season is either over or almost over. Let's take a look at how things stand heading into the last opportunity to make a difference.

1. Florida – 197.700
Road Score 1: 197.875
Road Score 2: 197.575
Road Score 3: 197.300
Road/Home Score 1: 198.425
Road Home Score 2: 198.100
Road/Home Score 3: 197.650

In recent memory (meaning in the span of the GymInfo archive), only UCLA (2003, 2004) and Georgia (1999) have recorded a higher RQS.

2. Oklahoma – 197.570
Road Score 1: 197.625
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 197.375
Road/Home Score 1: 198.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.875
Road/Home Score 3: 197.525

It will be extremely difficult for Oklahoma to pass Florida at this point. Florida needs a 197.675 at SECs to secure the #1 ranking regardless of Oklahoma's performance, which is well within the realm of possibility. Oklahoma would have to break 198 this weekend to even have a shot.

3. Alabama – 197.260
Road Score 1: 197.725
Road Score 2: 197.100
Road Score 3: 196.950
Road/Home Score 1: 197.650
Road/Home Score 2: 197.525
Road/Home Score 3: 197.075

For the top three, ranking fluctuations at this point mean little more than bragging rights. All three will obviously remain in the top six and will be the top seeds at their home regionals going up against the back end of the top 12. After #3, things get a bit more interesting. Regional host Oregon State is unable to get any higher than 9th and therefore should meet the highest-ranked team not called Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama in that Regional. Georgia has closed the gap on Michigan, and the two could finish in any order with the others not far behind.

4. Michigan – 197.175
Road Score 1: 197.550
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 196.925
Road/Home Score 1: 197.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.350
Road/Home Score 3: 196.925

5. Georgia – 197.160
Road Score 1: 197.800
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.825
Road/Home Score 1: 197.650
Road/Home Score 2: 197.500
Road/Home Score 3: 197.000

6. LSU – 197.065
Road Score 1: 197.275
Road Score 2: 197.100
Road Score 3: 196.975
Road/Home Score 1: 197.500
Road/Home Score 2: 197.050
Road/Home Score 3: 196.925

7. Utah – 197.010
Road Score 1: 197.125
Road Score 2: 196.975
Road Score 3: 196.600
Road/Home Score 1: 198.125
Road/Home Score 2: 197.300
Road/Home Score 3: 197.050

8. UCLA – 197.000
Road Score 1: 197.200
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.375
Road/Home Score 1: 197.425
Road/Home Score 2: 197.425
Road/Home Score 3: 197.075

9. Nebraska – 196.840
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 196.300
Road Score 3: 196.150
Road/Home Score 1: 197.675
Road/Home Score 2: 197.175
Road/Home Score 3: 197.050

Watch out for Nebraska. The Huskers have been very much under the radar, but with a 196.150 to drop this weekend, they could still shoot up a few places. Oregon State and Stanford shouldn't see too much movement, and Stanford will almost surely be heading to either Florida or Oklahoma. 

10. Oregon State – 196.790
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 196.825
Road Score 3: 196.300
Road/Home Score 1: 197.275
Road/Home Score 2: 196.925
Road/Home Score 3: 196.725

11. Stanford – 196.590
Road Score 1: 197.075
Road Score 2: 196.450
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 197.275
Road/Home Score 2: 197.200
Road/Home Score 3: 196.200

12. Auburn – 196.510
Road Score 1: 196.725
Road Score 2: 196.575
Road Score 3: 196.025
Road/Home Score 1: 197.175
Road/Home Score 2: 196.825
Road/Home Score 3: 196.400 

13. Denver – 196.470
Road Score 1: 196.800
Road Score 2: 196.400
Road Score 3: 196.150
Road/Home Score 1: 197.200
Road/Home Score 2: 196.600
Road/Home Score 3: 196.400

14. Minnesota – 196.365
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 195.550
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 197.225
Road/Home Score 2: 196.800
Road/Home Score 3: 196.775

14. Penn State – 196.365
Road Score 1: 196.700
Road Score 2: 196.300
Road Score 3: 195.150
Road/Home Score 1: 197.325
Road/Home Score 2: 196.975
Road/Home Score 3: 196.700

With those low road scores, Minnesota and Penn State are particularly capable of jumping up the rankings into #2 seed spots if they can extract some big scores over the weekend and if Stanford and Auburn falter. Even if they don't move up, they will still end up in those Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama regionals as #3 seeds. No one wants a 197-capable #3 seed, and it would seem like the 5/8 and 6/7 seeds are getting the better deal as far as that is concerned. However, no one wants a #3- or #4-seeded host either, which is what the others will get.

16. Arkansas – 196.285
Road Score 1: 196.600
Road Score 2: 196.350
Road Score 3: 195.650
Road/Home Score 1: 197.100
Road/Home Score 2: 196.650
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175

17. Arizona – 196.090
Road Score 1: 196.125
Road Score 2: 195.950
Road Score 3: 195.800
Road/Home Score 1: 196.625
Road/Home Score 2: 196.500
Road/Home Score 3: 196.075

18. Illinois – 196.080
Road Score 1: 196.350
Road Score 2: 196.300
Road Score 3: 195.700
Road/Home Score 1: 196.300
Road/Home Score 2: 196.125
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975
 
So there we are, our current top 18. Don't take this as final because I do like Kentucky's chances to move into a #3 seed position, but this is where we stand now. Here is how I see the various regionals shaking out based on current rankings.

Florida Regional: [1] Florida, [12] Auburn, [13] Denver
Oklahoma Regional: [2] Oklahoma, [11] Stanford, [14] Minnesota/Penn State
Alabama Regional: [3] Alabama, [9] Nebraska, [14] Minnesota/Penn State
Oregon State Regional: [4] Michigan, [10] Oregon State, [16] Arkansas
West Virginia/Ohio State Regional: [5] Georgia, [8] UCLA, [17] Arizona, WV/OSU
West Virginia/Ohio State Regional: [6] LSU, [7] Utah, [18] Illinois, WV/OSU

Beware Arkansas and Penn State. They aren't going to let you count a fall. If I'm a 5-8 seed, I'd probably prefer going to West Virginia over Ohio State. A regional with Illinois and West Virginia doesn't look half bad. I'd take that over having Arkansas or Penn State hanging around any day.

The remaining seeds will be grouped into pots of six and distributed geographically, so it's hard to tell how that will go at this point.

19. Kentucky – 196.060
Road Score 1: 196.500
Road Score 2: 196.075
Road Score 3: 195.525
Road/Home Score 1: 196.775
Road/Home Score 2: 196.375
Road/Home Score 3: 195.825

20. Ohio State – 195.825
Road Score 1: 195.950
Road Score 2: 195.575
Road Score 3: 195.050
Road/Home Score 1: 196.850
Road/Home Score 2: 196.300
Road/Home Score 3: 196.250

21. Kent State – 195.815
Road Score 1: 195.800
Road Score 2: 195.800
Road Score 3: 195.450
Road/Home Score 1: 196.250
Road/Home Score 2: 196.050
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975

22. Maryland – 195.810
Road Score 1: 196.150
Road Score 2: 195.975
Road Score 3: 195.300
Road/Home Score 1: 196.175
Road/Home Score 2: 196.025
Road/Home Score 3: 195.600

22. Central Michigan – 195.810
Road Score 1: 195.875
Road Score 2: 195.875
Road Score 3: 195.575
Road/Home Score 1: 196.125
Road/Home Score 2: 196.000
Road/Home Score 3: 195.725

24. Boise State – 195.785
Road Score 1: 195.575
Road Score 2: 195.425
Road Score 3: 195.300
Road/Home Score 1: 196.575
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 196.300
 
25. West Virginia – 195.780
Road Score 1: 195.775
Road Score 2: 195.450
Road Score 3: 195.150
Road/Home Score 1: 196.550
Road/Home Score 2: 196.375
Road/Home Score 3: 196.150

26. Washington – 195.765
Road Score 1: 196.000
Road Score 2: 195.950
Road Score 3: 194.875
Road/Home Score 1: 196.625
Road/Home Score 2: 196.025
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975

27. Iowa – 195.600
Road Score 1: 195.875
Road Score 2: 195.325
Road Score 3: 195.200
Road/Home Score 1: 196.375
Road/Home Score 2: 195.875
Road/Home Score 3: 195.725

28. Arizona State – 195.495
Road Score 1: 195.675
Road Score 2: 195.450
Road Score 3: 195.250
Road/Home Score 1: 196.025
Road/Home Score 2: 195.600
Road/Home Score 3: 195.500 

29. BYU – 195.365
Road Score 1: 195.875
Road Score 2: 195.250
Road Score 3: 195.125
Road/Home Score 1: 195.800
Road/Home Score 2: 195.500
Road/Home Score 3: 195.150 

30. NC State – 195.290
Road Score 1: 194.975
Road Score 2: 194.925
Road Score 3: 194.875
Road/Home Score 1: 196.050
Road/Home Score 2: 196.000
Road/Home Score 3: 195.675 

31. Bridgeport – 195.255
Road Score 1: 196.200
Road Score 2: 195.725
Road Score 3: 195.325
Road/Home Score 1: 195.300
Road/Home Score 2: 195.200
Road/Home Score 3: 194.725

32. Cal – 195.240
Road Score 1: 195.000
Road Score 2: 194.925
Road Score 3: 194.575
Road/Home Score 1: 196.525
Road/Home Score 2: 195.925
Road/Home Score 3: 195.775 

33. North Carolina – 195.200
Road Score 1: 195.600
Road Score 2: 195.550
Road Score 3: 195.300
Road/Home Score 1: 195.675
Road/Home Score 2: 195.050
Road/Home Score 3: 194.500

34. Southern Utah – 195.145 
Road Score 1: 195.600
Road Score 2: 194.875
Road Score 3: 194.075
Road/Home Score 1: 196.200
Road/Home Score 2: 195.700
Road/Home Score 3: 195.475

35. Pittsburgh – 195.040
Road Score 1: 194.875
Road Score 2: 194.750
Road Score 3: 194.750
Road/Home Score 1: 196.175
Road/Home Score 2: 195.650
Road/Home Score 3: 195.175 

36. Iowa State – 194.950 
Road Score 1: 195.125
Road Score 2: 194.850
Road Score 3: 194.825
Road/Home Score 1: 195.550
Road/Home Score 2: 195.175
Road/Home Score 3: 194.775
------------------------------- [Regionals cutoff]
37. George Washington – 194.810
Road Score 1: 195.300
Road Score 2: 194.825
Road Score 3: 194.750
Road/Home Score 1: 195.350
Road/Home Score 2: 194.675
Road/Home Score 3: 194.500

37. New Hampshire – 194.810
Road Score 1: 194.875
Road Score 2: 194.675
Road Score 3: 194.225
Road/Home Score 1: 195.650
Road/Home Score 2: 195.425
Road/Home Score 3: 194.850

You know you send too much time thinking about gymnastics when you type "New Hampshire" into Google and expect it to take you right to the New Hampshire gymnastics team's schedule.

39. Rutgers – 194.740
Road Score 1: 195.550
Road Score 2: 195.050
Road Score 3: 194.175
Road/Home Score 1: 195.975
Road/Home Score 2: 195.000
Road/Home Score 3: 193.925

39. Sacramento State – 194.740 
Mathematically eliminated from contention.

41. UC Davis – 194.615
Mathematically eliminated from contention. 


42. Michigan State – 194.605
Road Score 1: 196.000
Road Score 2: 195.600
Road Score 3: 194.850
Road/Home Score 1: 194.875
Road/Home Score 2: 194.250
Road/Home Score 3: 193.450

43. San Jose State – 194.600
Road Score 1: 195.700
Road Score 2: 195.000
Road Score 3: 194.250
Road/Home Score 1: 195.575
Road/Home Score 2: 194.550
Road/Home Score 3: 193.625

All subsequent teams, including Missouri, have been eliminated from contention.

Full Rankings

2 comments:

  1. If 2 teams are tied in RQS, how would the tie be broken?

    ReplyDelete
  2. If I recall, the tiebreaker is season average, but I can't find anything right now that confirms that officially.

    ReplyDelete