February 16, 2015

Week 6 Rankings and RQS Outlook

Over the weekend, Florida recovered from their average road performance a week ago to record the season's highest total so far, 198.225, which means the Gators jump right back up into their cozy little trio with Oklahoma and LSU. Ah, home meets. It's a wonder what home+Baker+Hunter hitting can do for scores. 

In 10-land, the pace dropped off a little bit this week with just one 10.0 instead of the usual 6,000. The one 10.0 came from Toni-Ann Williams, Her Ladyship Duchess of Berkeley, on vault. It's particularly significant because it's the first 10.0 for Cal on vault ever. We also had several more 9.975s on bars, including Ivana Hong, because obviously, as well as Mary Jane Horth once again. 

If you haven't had a chance to watch the LSU/Auburn meet from Friday yet, you really should. High-quality gymnastics in a competitive meet that went down to the final routine and was not defined by judging insanity (almost entirely). It was a good reminder of what's fun about college gymnastics. I have to think that if Caitlin Atkinson had been in on floor, Auburn would have won. Scores were going in Auburn's favor through that final rotation, but Hlawek had to perform in the final spot and just doesn't have that 9.900 routine they needed.






In the comment of the live blog, a few people mentioned that it would be interesting if Auburn keeps this up and knocks Georgia out of the top-seeded session at SECs (it really would be). But, Georgia is the de facto host of SECs, and do we know if the SEC is mimicking the rules of the Pac-12, where the host school's session goes in the evening regardless of seeding? Last year, if you recall, the Pac-12 Championship was at Cal. Since Cal was not in the top four in the conference, the top four seeds went in the afternoon and then the bottom four seeds went in the evening, and it was weird. 

That's among the reasons I was pleased to hear that the Pac-12 Championship has been moved from ASU to Utah this year. We know Utah is going to be one of the top four seeds. Plus, they'll put on a good event. But also, come on people. Planning! Shouldn't this have been worked out, maybe, 8 months ago?

Moving onto the rankings, we're just one week out of RQS kicking in, so I've included the current RQS picture for each team along with their season average ranking.  

Refresher: RQS stands for Regional Qualifying Score. It determines which 36 teams will advance to the Regional Championships and is calculated by taking a team's top six scores, of which at least three must be road scores, removing the highest score, and averaging the remaining five.

Week 6 Rankings - (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.536
Week 6: 197.275
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Capps 9.950; UB - Wofford 9.925; BB - Capps, Clark 9.850; FX - Scaman, Jackson 9.925

Current RQS: 197.620
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.700
Road Score 3: 197.650
Road/Home Score 1: 197.850
Road/Home Score 2: 197.625
Road/Home Score 3: 197.275

*Scores in bold are guaranteed to be part of the six RQS scores.

In spite of a, perhaps, unexpectedly meh showing over the weekend in which the Sooners were forced to look at the scoreboard and see all these weird 9.8-looking shapes that they didn't recognize, Oklahoma is already set for the postseason when it comes to scores. There aren't really any weak scores that need to be dropped, though they'll surely get rid of that lowly 197 at some point (or every point) over the next five weeks, which will put them in a solid position to eclipse their RQS total from last season of 197.775. The problem is going to be catching them. Florida and LSU basically have to go mid-197 in every remaining meet to have a chance to see the year-end #1. An almost five-tenths advantage in RQS is tough to make up.

2. Florida – 197.325
Week 6: 198.225
Week 6 leaders: AA - Hunter 39.750; VT - Hunter, McMurtry 9.950; UB - Dancose-Giambattisto 9.950; BB - Hunter, Boyce 9.950; FX - Baker 9.975

Current RQS: 197.145
Road Score 1: 197.200
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.800
Road/Home Score 1: 198.225
Road/Home Score 2: 197.600
Road/Home Score 3: 197.200

There's still some work to do on those road scores. That's where Oklahoma's advantage is the most extreme. Florida still has three road meets left, but the meet this weekend at LSU takes on slightly more significance since ideally they wouldn't be counting any of the road scores they have put up so far. Of course, it doesn't really matter if they finish the regular season #1, #2, #3, etc., but it's a bragging rights thing, and perhaps there's an argument for receiving "pre-ordained winner" scoring once Nationals comes along. The Sloan comeback talk is starting to ramp up, and if she is able to get back on a couple events relatively soon, don't expect that 198 to be lonely for long.

3. LSU – 197.321
Week 6: 197.350
Week 6 leaders: AA - Gnat 39.550; VT - Courville 9.950; UB - Courville 9.925; BB - Jordan 9.925; FX - Gnat 9.950

Current RQS: 197.170
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 196.600
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.350
Road/Home Score 3: 197.125

In spite of falling behind Florida in average, LSU retains a slight lead in the RQS race. They have the advantage on Florida when it comes to those all-important road scores, and they'll look to get rid of that straggling 196.600 when they go on the road to Alabama on the 27th, so expect the Tigers to start closing the Oklahoma gap with a hit meet. They could pick up a couple tenths with a mid-197. Over the weekend, LSU put up a good performance, even though we've come to think of lowish 197s as just average scores for top teams, lowish 197s are not all created equal, and this was a solid one. Still, they certainly let Auburn into the meet, which they probably shouldn't have done. The main culprit was mistakes on floor, with Hall, Courville, and Savona all having some unexpected landing issues to put them in pedestrian 49.250 territory. 

4. Utah – 197.167
Week 6: 197.025
Week 6 leaders: AA - Wilson 39.375; VT - Delaney 9.950; UB - Dabritz 9.925; BB - Lothrop, Stover 9.875; FX - Dabritz 9.900

Current RQS: 197.030
Road Score 1: 197.850
Road Score 2: 197.025
Road Score 3: 196.900
Road/Home Score 1: 197.825
Road/Home Score 2: 196.725
Road/Home Score 3: 196.675

Utah remains competitive in RQS, just a notch behind the top three, which is how the rankings have looked pretty much the whole season so far. The Utes went on the road to Washington over the weekend and met with a monstrous villain named realistic scoring, which exposed some of the weaknesses in those lineups (as did the re-emergence of beam issues that had been kept under wraps so far). Well, not weaknesses, but 9.825s that do put them behind the teams ranked above.

Utah's RQS picture has changed slightly this week now that they're hosting Pac-12s. It means they have just two road meets left instead of three. It's not much of an issue because their two lowest scores right now are home scores, but if they are of a mind to challenge the top three, they'll have to make both of those remaining road meets count for, say it with me now, mid 197s. Everything is about mid 197s now. Mid 197 or bust.

5. Alabama – 196.938
Week 6: 197.800
Week 6 leaders: AA - Beers 39.650; VT - Bailey 9.925; UB - Bailey 9.950; BB - Beers 9.950; FX - Clark, Dennis, C Sims 9.900

Current RQS: N/A
Road Score 1: 196.700
Road Score 2: 196.175
Road Score 3: X
Road/Home Score 1: 197.800
Road/Home Score 2: 197.400
Road/Home Score 3: 197.325

Alabama doesn't have an RQS yet because they don't have three road meets yet. Which is weird. In my head, they've already had 20. The rest of the season schedule is very road-heavy, with four more away meets, so they have plenty of opportunities to boost the numbers there. But since they probably don't want to count either of the road scores they have so far (that 196.175 needs to go), they'll have to make them count. The Tide has not looked great on the road so far, but they'll have a chance to turn that around on Friday at Georgia.

The outlook is positive because at home against Boise State over the weekend, Alabama put together their best meet of the season by a wide margin to move up a spot in the rankings. No missed performances, and most importantly, those bars routines (and dismounts in particular) were much improved. Katie Bailey nailed that meet, especially on vault and bars. Neither has looked better. 

6. Michigan – 196.929
Week 6: 196.725
Week 6 leaders: AA - Sugiyama 39.550; VT - Sugiyama 9.900; UB - Brown 9.950; BB - Artz 9.925; FX - Sugiyama, Chiarelli 9.900

Current RQS: 196.855
Road Score 1: 197.125
Road Score 2: 196.975
Road Score 3: 196.725
Road/Home Score 1: 197.300
Road/Home Score 2: 196.850
Road/Home Score 3: 196.600

The Wolverines are hosting conference championships this year, which means that like Utah, they have just two road meets remaining and are already guaranteed to count that 197.125. That's a fine score, and Michigan's consistency so far this year means that they don't have any problem scores lurking around. This is a comfortably mid-top 10 RQS picture. They'll want to throw in a couple more 197s as lower-ranked teams like Auburn start to do the same, just to make sure they stay afloat in either the 5/8/17 or 6/7/18 Regional where they'd be favored to advance comfortably. I'm already talking Regionals scenarios. Too early!

This weekend's performance at Michigan State was just OK, with struggles on vault landings and another counting OOB from Artz on floor bringing the total down out of the 197s.

7. Nebraska – 196.492
Week 6: 197.075
Week 6 leaders: AA - DeZiel 39.550; VT - DeZiel 9.925; UB - DeZiel 9.900; BB - J Lauer 9.925; FX - Blanske, DeZiel 9.875

Current RQS: 196.325
Road Score 1: 197.075
Road Score 2: 196.250
Road Score 3: 195.875
Road/Home Score 1: 197.325
Road/Home Score 2: 197.125
Road/Home Score 3: 195.300

With Nebraska, we start to see an RQS picture that is a little more precarious if they are looking to retain this kind of ranking. The Huskers have just two road meets left, and two road scores that they'll want to drop to be sure to stay in the top 10. That road outlook is why getting four relatively consistently hit rotations for a 197 over the weekend at Minnesota was critical, and it's why it's also critical that no beamtastrophes are allowed to creep in this weekend at UCLA.

8. Auburn – 196.271
Week 6: 197.300
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Demers, Rott 9.950; UB - Atkinson 9.875; BB - Walker 9.925; FX - Rott 9.900

Current RQS: 196.065
Road Score 1: 196.825
Road Score 2: 195.650
Road Score 3: 194.150
Road/Home Score 1: 197.300
Road/Home Score 2: 197.075
Road/Home Score 3: 196.625

Yes, those road scores are scary. Auburn started the season with two poor road meets, but they have been comfortably entrenched at home for nearly all the meets since, and have used that comfort to find their form. Like Alabama, they still have four road meets remaining, so they have ample time and talent to get rid of those nasties and zoom up the rankings even higher. Just a note: Auburn had the 4th-best score in the country over the weekend, and it was the top score in program history, which surprised me. They've never broken 197.3 before?

9. UCLA – 196.263
Week 6: 197.075
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Peszek 9.900; UB - Francis 9.875; BB - Francis 9.875; FX - Bynum 9.925

Current RQS: 196.100
Road Score 1: 197.075
Road Score 2: 196.000
Road Score 3: 194.725
Road/Home Score 1: 197.000
Road/Home Score 2: 196.800
Road/Home Score 3: 195.975

Like most of the other teams in this ranking section, UCLA needs to go work to get rid of some of those road scores and bolster that picture with a few more competitive scores in the high 196s, at least. We'll probably see a big jump for UCLA after the meet at Arizona State on the 27th, at which point they can get rid of that 194. The problem for UCLA is that they don't have any big scores to rely on. Every meet has had a problem, either big or small, including the season-high 197.075 on Saturday, which had a woeful lack of Peng, an off-ish 9.8 of a meet for Peszek, and a tucked bail handstand from DeJesus when they really needed one of her 9.9s.

10. Oregon State – 196.196
Week 6: 197.250
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Aufiero 9.925; UB - Aufiero 9.925; BB - Perez 9.875; FX - Everyone 9.925

Current RQS: 195.985
Road Score 1: 197.250
Road Score 2: 196.450
Road Score 3: 195.975
Road/Home Score 1: 196.250
Road/Home Score 2: 195.800
Road/Home Score 3: 195.450

Oregon State managed a huge 197.250 over the weekend at Cal, which featured a totally random 49.600 on floor in which every single person got a 9.925. That helps. The trouble for the Beavs in RQS is that they don't have many competitive scores other than this new 197. They have five meets remaining in the regular season and three 195s that they must get rid of. Top 10 teams don't count 195s in RQS. If they don't start putting up 196.500-196.800 scores each week, at minimum, they're one of the teams most vulnerable to getting stuck in those dreaded 1/12/13 and 2/11/14 Regionals again this year. 

11. Georgia – 196.096
Week 6: 196.200
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Rogers, Broussard 9.900; UB - Davis 9.925; BB - Rogers 9.900; FX - Box 9.875

Current RQS: 196.280
Road Score 1: 196.950
Road Score 2: 196.850
Road Score 3: 196.200
Road/Home Score 1: 196.975
Road/Home Score 2: 195.800
Road/Home Score 3: 195.600

Oh, Georgia. Why are you 11th? The good news for Georgia is that RQS makes them look so much better than season average does. RQS allows them to get rid of all those disaster meets and currently puts them right in contention with #7 Nebraska. Those road scores are much healthier than most of the teams ranked above, which helps a ton. Once again this week, Georgia started off looking OK. They got some solid vaults and bars hits (Vaculik! Finally!), but then a counting fall on beam destroyed the score. Now that Michigan has transformed into a safe beam team, Georgia is taking over the mantle of most frustratingly disastrous, underperforming beam team. Well, no, Stanford. Always and perpetually. But Georgia is there too.

Can we also discuss the sudden no-AAers trend? Five of the top 11 teams went without AAers this weekend. In truth, the biggest reason for that is injuries and resting rather than some big trend. You'd have Rogers, Peszek, Atkinson, and Tang/Gardiner in the AA under normal circumstances. But it's still interesting to see. Oklahoma is the only exception to that. They're the true "no-AA" team and have been for years. 

12. Penn State – 196.025
Week 6: 196.275
Week 6 leaders: AA - Sanabria-Robles 39.375; VT - Sibson 9.825; UB - Sanabria-Robles 9.875; BB - Sanabria-Robles 9.850; FX - Tsang 9.925

Current RQS: N/A
Road Score 1: 196.025
Road Score 2: 195.600
Road Score 3: X
Road/Home Score 1: 197.025
Road/Home Score 2: 196.550
Road/Home Score 3: 196.275

13. Illinois – 195.996
Week 6: 196.975
Week 6 leaders: AA - O'Connor 39.600; VT - O'Connor 9.950; UB - Horth 9.975; BB - Horth, Kato 9.900; FX - O'Connor 9.925

Current RQS: 195.800
Road Score 1: 196.975
Road Score 2: 195.475
Road Score 3: 195.175
Road/Home Score 1: 196.400
Road/Home Score 2: 196.175
Road/Home Score 3: 195.775

14. Arkansas – 195.958
Week 6: 196.650
Week 6 leaders: AA - Wellick 39.425; VT - Wellick 9.950; UB - Canizaro 9.875; BB - Dillard, Nelson 9.825; FX - Wellick 9.925

Current RQS: 195.820
Road Score 1: 196.250
Road Score 2: 196.250
Road Score 3: 194.900
Road/Home Score 1: 196.650
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 195.375

15. Boise State – 195.871
Week 6 A: 195.450
Week 6 A leaders: AA - Morris 39.275; VT - Perkins 9.900; UB - Perkins 9.950; BB - Jacobsen, Mejia 9.850; FX - Bennion, Krentz, Morris 9.825

Week 6 B: 195.925
Week 6 B leaders: AA - Morris 39.325; VT - Perkins 9.925; UB - Perkins 9.900; BB - Mejia 9.825; FX - Morris 9.875

Current RQS: 195.700
Road Score 1: 196.625
Road Score 2: 195.975
Road Score 3: 195.450
Road/Home Score 1: 196.725
Road/Home Score 2: 195.925
Road/Home Score 3: 194.525

16. Stanford – 195.821
Week 6: 196.225
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Rice 9.900; UB - Hong 9.975; BB - Rice 9.850; FX - Rice, Spector 9.925 

Current RQS: 196.060
Road Score 1: 196.525
Road Score 2: 196.275
Road Score 3: 195.950
Road/Home Score 1: 197.000
Road/Home Score 2: 196.225
Road/Home Score 3: 195.325

RQS is such a gift to Stanford every season. It makes the bad not happen. They're suddenly ahead of Oregon State and right there with Auburn and UCLA.

17. Denver – 195.479
Week 6: 195.425
Week 6 leaders: AA - Menhinick 38.875; VT - McGee 9.875; UB - McGee 9.850; BB - Ross 9.800; FX - McGee 9.875

Current RQS: 195.540
Road Score 1: 196.150
Road Score 2: 195.500
Road Score 3: 195.425
Road/Home Score 1: 196.025
Road/Home Score 2: 195.900
Road/Home Score 3: 194.850

18. Cal – 195.436
Week 6: 196.225
Week 6 leaders: AA - Williams 39.700; VT - Williams 10.000, UB - Williams 9.875; BB - Palomares 9.900; FX - Williams 9.950

Current RQS: 195.390
Road Score 1: 195.425
Road Score 2: 195.175
Road Score 3: 194.875
Road/Home Score 1: 196.225
Road/Home Score 2: 195.900
Road/Home Score 3: 195.575

19. Minnesota – 195.432
Week 6: 196.675
Week 6 leaders: AA - Mable 39.675; VT - Mable 9.900; UB - Mable 9.875; BB - Mable 9.925; FX - Mable 9.975 (SWEEP!)

Current RQS: 195.335
Road Score 1: 196.875
Road Score 2: 195.375
Road Score 3: 193.350
Road/Home Score 1: 196.675
Road/Home Score 2: 196.325
Road/Home Score 3: 194.950

20. Arizona – 195.408
Week 6: Monday meet

Current RQS: 195.215
Road Score 1: 196.050
Road Score 2: 195.300
Road Score 3: 195.100
Road/Home Score 1: 196.375
Road/Home Score 2: 195.250
Road/Home Score 3: 194.375

21. Washington – 195.379
Week 6: 195.650
Week 6 leaders: AA - Northey 39.475; VT - Northey 9.875; UB - Northey 9.900; BB - Northey 9.900; FX - Northey, Stowe 9.800 (SWEEP #2!)

Current RQS: 195.195
Road Score 1: 196.300
Road Score 2: 195.550
Road Score 3: 194.500
Road/Home Score 1: 195.950
Road/Home Score 2: 195.650
Road/Home Score 3: 194.325

22. Southern Utah – 195.214
Week 6: 195.500
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Webb 9.825; UB - Armijo, Ramirez 9.850; BB - Trejo 9.875; FX - Trejo 9.775

Current RQS: 195.365
Road Score 1: 195.750
Road Score 2: 195.500
Road Score 3: 195.500
Road/Home Score 1: 195.650
Road/Home Score 2: 195.375
Road/Home Score 3: 194.800

23. Ohio State – 195.168
Week 6: 195.200
Week 6 leaders: AA - Funches 39.000; VT - Burns 9.850; UB - Funches 9.825; BB - Grady 9.850; FX - Mattern, Merkle 9.825

Current RQS: 195.085
Road Score 1: 195.650
Road Score 2: 195.200
Road Score 3: 194.675
Road/Home Score 1: 196.200
Road/Home Score 2: 195.025
Road/Home Score 3: 194.875

24. Kentucky – 195.113
Week 6: 194.425
Week 6 leaders: AA - None; VT - Mitchell, Waltz 9.775; UB - Rechenmacher 9.850; BB - Waltz 9.875; FX - Puryear 9.775

Current RQS: 194.970
Road Score 1: 195.825
Road Score 2: 194.975
Road Score 3: 194.425
Road/Home Score 1: 195.625
Road/Home Score 2: 195.600
Road/Home Score 3: 194.225

25. New Hampshire – 195.095
Week 6: Monday meet

Current RQS: N/A
Road Score 1: 193.450
Road Score 2: X
Road Score 3: X
Road/Home Score 1: 196.525
Road/Home Score 2: 195.900
Road/Home Score 3: 195.450


9 comments:

  1. SECs were in Little Rock in 2013, and Arkansas competed in the afternoon session, so it doesn't appear that SECs take into account anything but rankings. I wonder if scores would loosen up early if UGA ends up in the afternoon, but they don't have the clout that they used to, so it's possible they would get lowballed like everyone else in the afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It is not Cal's first 10 "ever, ever" -- this was their first 10 on vault. If you read the meet report on Cal's website, someone got a 10 in 1992.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anyone know if Lindsay Offutt out of Pitt is the only one doing 4 tumbling passes in NCAA this year? Or is there anyone else?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I believe for RQS, three must be road to get the six total but a road can be dropped if it is the highest. But I could be wrong — someone know for sure?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Doing this for Oklahoma, for example, (taking the top five and dropping the 198), gives the same RQS that GymInfo has on its site.

      Delete
    2. Yes, that's right. The highest is dropped regardless of whether it is home or road. When bolding the scores, I mean that the bolded score it is guaranteed to be part of the six.

      Delete
    3. Why is it guaranteed to be counted, though?

      Delete
  5. If I understand correctly, the author is saying that there are not enough meets (either on the road or in total) for that team remaining this season for the bolded score to not count as one of the 6 scores from which the RQS will be calculated. If your team only has 2 road meets remaining, your highest score on the road to date must be one of the top 3 at the end of the season. Additionally, if your team has 5 total meets remaining, your highest total meet to date must be one of the top 6 at the end of the regular season, so it must count in the RQS calculation. This isn't an issue until now, since the season is (sadly) starting to wind down, or get good depending on how you think of it...

    ReplyDelete