On Kyla, Gabby, and How It Doesn't Really Matter

It occurs to me I never wrapped up my thoughts on the national championship, so here are just a few behind-schedule cognitive tangles about that competition before we move on to remembering that there are still two more national team camps before the WC squad is named and two more months until the actual competition.

On day 2 of nationals for the women, the world righted itself, with most of the competitors remembering that hitting routines is a thing you should probably do. It also reinforced why prospective team selection is such a fun game. There are a TON of realistic permutations for Worlds teams this year, all of which will end up scoring very similarly to one another, and some of which belie visual impressions from the competition. But which one do you choose?

Take Kyla, for example. Expectations are a funny thing. Kyla has been a top-2 AAer for the US this whole quad, majoring in not sucking at bars. So when she suddenly has a nasty Nationals and looks weak on bars, the sky is falling. That was certainly the attitude of our broadcast team. Al was even asking whether Kyla would make the selection camp. (Tim was like, "Derp. Obvi she's making the selection camp.") Yes correct, Tim.



But to me, and contrary to the overall tone of things, Kyla helped her chances to make the team with her performance on day 2 of nationals. At least, she made an argument for including her in the squad that she didn't make on day 1. No, bars is not happening. But at this moment, it's not really about bars for her. That's the big change in expectations we have to make. With her current routine composition, Kyla isn't making the team to do bars in TF even if she shaves several inches off her height and lands a dismount. (If she returns to her planned 6.3 and can hit by selection camp, it's a different story, but that's a lot to do.) Right now, it's about beam. That's where she can be top three. And she stepped up like hell there and did her job on day 2.



In fact, because she did her job (scoring several tenths ahead of a connection-free Aly Raisman and a strong Alyssa Baumann, and a point ahead of a wobbly Gabby Douglas), suddenly a team with Kyla on it makes a little sense now and outscores many of the other permutations. At least on the day. Playing the same game I did for day 1 scores, here's the way some possible teams stack up according exclusively to their day 2 scores. 

Splatfest 2015

I like to consider myself a connoisseur of splatfests. It is my calling. And the first day of women's competition at the national championships last night was a truly lovely vintage. It wasn't quite 2000 Trials level (that's an unrealistic standard to which to hold other competitions—we can't all be 2000 Trials), but Aly Raisman did fall on a split jump, so it was pretty competitive. During the meet, I may or may not have started singing "Car Wash" but with "splatfest" instead of "car wash."

Now, except for Maggie Nichols continuing to be a Solid Sandy and confirming her place in the new world order, and Simone Biles just casually throwing out the best E score of all time (have we confirmed that? I think it is, beating Nastia's beam 9.800 at 2008 Pacific Rims, but has anyone scoured the records to make sure?), this meet will probably end up counting as an incomplete. For the rest of you, we'll pretend it never happened and just start over tomorrow.

But, what I love about this splatfest most of all (other than how PISSSSSSED Aly and Simone looked the whole time—heartwarming) is that it throws some serious doubt onto that pre-summer presumptive team of Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Key, Ross. Primarily because of bars. (And also maybe because of Alyssa Baumann...pleeeeeassse?)

There are still a million things that can change between now and the selection camp. Kupets will make a comeback. The Worlds team will be reduced to 2 and a half members (2 AAers and then whatever is left of Madison Kocian's legs after this weekend). But, as we stand right now, that presumptive team has some pretty large cracks in it. Let's talk about that to make this summer of selection a lot more interesting than it has been so far. At least until tomorrow, when everything will change again. I fully own the flippant and mercurial attitude I bring to team selection.



How do you solve a problem like Kyla? That's not really the Sound of Music reference I would have expected to need to use about Kyla. She's supposed to be the Edelweiss of USA Gymnastics. But her bars are turning into an issue. Partly because of the falling (this routine doesn't make me feel warm and safe like a sweater the way her 2012 routine did), but mostly because of the potential score even when she does hit. Give her back a point for the fall yesterday, and she's still in 7th on bars, well behind several of the bars specialists contending for a spot. Her difficulty is down to 6.0 from the more competitive 6.3 she was planning, and that's not a good sign. She needs a selection camp step-up in that regard.

Pre-Classic: A Land of Ignorance

Pre-Classic is my favorite part of the elite season because it's the silliest. We're all so damn confident about how things are going to go this season despite having seen precisely zero gymnastics from the major and most of the minor contenders. Remember your feelings about Ashton Locklear precisely 365 days ago? Because they were a tumbleweed made of cricket sound effects.

That's what makes Classic exciting. At this moment, we know nothing, but by the end of podium training, we'll basically be set and have a good idea of what we'll see this year. To help fill in the possible picture of who might go to Glasgow to be the trusted attendants in Queen Simone's Royal Court, here are a few ramblings about what I'll be watching out for at Classic because I realize I haven't posted anything that isn't about Al Trautwig in a long time.  

Amanar Watch 2015: Beyond Biles, Fact or Fiction


Eeeeeeeverybody thinks she has an Amanar this year. We'll see. We've been down this road before. People often like to show up to Classic going, "Sup bitches, I gots me an Amanar," and then it isn't so much with the great. See Gowey 2014, Raisman 2010. Still, enough people have past Amanars, current Amanars, possible Amanars, Un-anars, or fantasies about having Amanars that the US should be expecting to cobble together at least three 6.3+ vaults for Worlds. There's obviously Biles, Dowell has had a 2.5 for years now and needs it, we have Skinner with her social experiment, we know about Raisman and Douglas's past vaults, Nichols had a Campanar that time, Key has been training one since she was a fetus (You guys! She's training a Wombanar in there! My aunt's cousin saw it!), Gowey had that one for a hot second last year but didn't vault at Pan Ams because of yet another in her Pride Parade of injuries. Right now, there are a lot of possibilities, but we need some facts.

Of this group, a hit 2.5 will probably be the most important for Maggie Nichols. She has elevated herself out of you're-here-too, Paul Ruggeri, alternating-my-ass-off territory almost solely on the basis of having a Campanar, but if she could legitimately score as a top-three vaulter this summer in competition, that would be a huge boost for her team hopes. She needs to prove that she's not only a strong AAer, but convincingly top 3 at least somewhere and probably two-wheres. It's a big competition for Nichols. Conversely, Skinner will be rooting for as few Amanars as possible. The more people with competitive vaults, the less necessary her vault becomes, and she doesn't have as many competitive events to work with in the first place.

Bring Out Your Bars Specialists 


Last year, Locklear and Kocian made the team to ensure that the US was a little less horrifying on bars, and once again on a team of six, the opportunity can present itself for bars specialist to work her way onto the team and save the day. Though the standard is tougher this year. With Ross continuing to be Ross and Biles, Key, Nichols, and a whole host of other people showing bars D-scores in the low 6s with high-14 totals (6.1 is the new 5.8), anyone hoping to make the team specifically because of bars will need to show significantly higher scoring potential than that. Possible bars specialists need to be scoring clearly into the 15s, otherwise there will be people already on the team for other events who can do the job just as well. So I'm keeping an eye on those scores. That's why it will be tough for someone like Gowey. She mashed together an upgraded routine for this year (with more upgrade potential still) but maxed out at the 14.7s at Pan Ams. Biles can get that. Desch is in a similar boat. She upgraded like crazy this year to put together some really solid routines, but she's not in top-three contention on these events.

Douglas will be interesting to watch with regard to the quest for bars 15s. Because she's Gabby Douglas, she automatically seems like the default bars worker based on her past accomplishments. But, her Jesolo bars routine was very work-in progress. She'll need to show some development since then to solidify any kind of status on this event. Comparing her score to the incumbent bars workers, the injury-returning Locklear and Kocian, will be telling, though certainly Douglas's abilities on other events can help her cause.

The crop is deeper this year than it was last year, so there probably isn't going to be room for a whole gang of bars specialists again. We're going to see the likes of Locklear, Kocian, and Dowell all trying to out-bars each other for what might not even be one spot. (Biles, Ross, Raisman, Key, Douglas, Nichols, Skinner is a fairly realistic, serious-scoring group of seven to choose from, and it includes none of them. Although, that team may be slightly questionable on bars and could use a boost if someone earns it.) We know Dowell's top routine has the difficulty edge over everyone, but she'll have to bring that routine, along with a whole bushel of consistency and a clear scoring edge over the recent world team members in order to overcome the general Martha-thumbs-down feeling that has pervaded her elite career.

Who Is Good At Floor?


Simone is. Aly Raisman is. Aly has spent the last 5 years making teams because of beam and floor, so to solidify her spot on the prospective team, she's going to need to reinforce her position on floor and emerge as the clear #2 behind Biles and her 19.500. She has the difficulty to do it already back in her routine and looked on track at Jesolo. She's kind of the Olympic champion, you know. The US has a formidable 1-2 punch with Biles and Raisman on floor, but the third floor worker will be an interesting topic. Key's scores render her a very strong possiblity, and of course there's Skinner as well. As on vault, Skinner will need to use Classic to prove that she's still top three, with Raisman coming in this year to challenge her status a little bit more. Skinner vs. Key on floor should be a fun one. Skinner needs to win that to make her argument. Does someone else pop into possible 15 territory?

These are the questions I want answered. Amanars? How relevant and necessary are the bars specialists? Gabby's still Gabby, right? And who's third on floor? I expect all the competitors to do their best to answer them in a timely and clear fashion. As for beam, my impression right now is that it won't be decisive in team selection. With Biles, Ross, Raisman, Douglas, and Key all seeming like realistic beam options (to varying degrees) who can make the team for other events as well, selection may come down to choosing the team for the other three events and then just using the best beamers from that group, who will probably be the best beamers in the country anyway. It makes it very tough for Baumann, though, since beam is kind of her thing, but she doesn't have the other asset events. 

Also, Sabrina Vega is a person again. So that will be interesting.

How Very Mid-Quad Of Us

It's that time of year again, the time of elite thinking. The 2014 NCAA season is well behind us, and it's not really healthy to start thinking about the 2015 season in any depth for at least another three or four months (lying). So, it's once again time for my annual attempt to return my attention to the elite scene, with all its D scores and team selections and switch ring full turns, and dive in feet first. (I've never been much of a diver, so headfirst seems inadvisable. Even though that's the expression, I'm not comfortable with it, and it should change.) 

As we enter the second year post-Olympics, we're starting to move into that meaty area at the center of the quad where things start to get a little more real. In the first year of a quad, we can only learn so much. It's a year of posturing, where we just sort of quaintly applaud people who have decided to stick around but can't make any real conclusions about the future. It's so hard to keep up for a full quad, and what seems like a given in year one is often obsolete by year four. Just ask Ana Porgras and Rebecca Bross about that one.

True story: I forgot Ana Porgras's name a few months ago. I was like, "Who was that good Romanian? The one with the face?"

But as we move into the second year, we start to wonder about who's actually in this thing, not just to hang around the edge of a Worlds team here or there but to be a major player. Now the ramshackle, debt-ridden Rio venues become a glinting tease shining on the periphery of every conversation. It's not close enough to be a thing, not nearly, but if you're a gymnastics fan, you find yourself absentmindedly forming possible World and Olympic teams while chopping vegetables, or taking a shower, or drinking the blood of your enemies, knowing it's too early and that none of these people will even have working bones anymore by the time 2016 rolls around, but still resculpting and reimagining the picture with the emergence of every new Gowey of the month.

But should we entertain that taunting Rio glint, or shut it out? How much is year 2 really relevant to year 4 of a quad? I don't have any grand conclusions because every team is different and every quad is different, but it's worth looking at how the years compare as we progress through a quad, keeping in mind how much things tend to change, or in specific cases, stay the same. In that spirit, I took a look back at 2010 Worlds and compared those teams to the 2012 Olympic teams to get some idea of how things progressed from year 2 to year 4. 

A Secret Classic Post Without a Pun in the Title

And it was really hard to resist, but I think we can all agree that this particular well of rolling eyes has been more than exhausted. Yes, secret is an actual word and a sponsor of an event. We get it.

But first, time to keep up with a little NCAA talk. I'm soooo changeable.

Earlier this week, Jenni Pinches announced she will be attending UCLA for the 2013-2014 season, giving a big, unexpected boost to the Bruins for next year. The UCLA scholarship situation is always a little bit of witch's brew (eye of newt, toe of frog, Kaelie Baer – we don't know what's in there), so it's not yet clear whether there was an opening or whether the team had to play "Eeny, meeny, miny, medical retirement." We'll see in time.

Pinches brings early or mid lineup potential on all four events, a tremendous piece of security for a team losing half of its Super Six routines from last season. While the injury comebacks and the already-committed freshmen would likely have prevented a repeat of the depth problems from last season, some holes still presented themselves. On certain events, the Bruins would have had enough routines to get by but perhaps only about 7 that they would really want to compete, while the others made up the depth charts. That's assuming seamless comebacks from the injured, which is hardly assured, and would not be enough for any degree of confidence. One person gets injured, someone else needs time to get back into form, and it's Alyssa Pritchett's 9.750 on vault all over again. Pinches provides breathing room and solid .050s here and there over what otherwise could have competed.

Back in the elite realm, the Secret Classic is just a week away. The roster was released early this week, and it features 17 seniors and 46 juniors.

The senior roster contains the usual batch of "OMG you guys! I qualified elite!" mixed with the "Look at me Martha! Please! Look at me! She knows my name, right?" mixed with the "See you in Belgium, beyotches!"

That's part of the fun of the first year of the quad, the mixture.

On Home Scoring, the Elite Kind

The official motto of the American gymternet is Illos numeros inter gentes numquam accipiet. (She'll never receive those scores internationally.)

Over the years, we've all seen any number of hilarious scores showered upon US gymnasts at domestic competitions, and this storied history of ridiculing hyper-American judging has cultivated the widespread assumption that less biased international judges would never succumb to such silliness.

At times in the past, this has been the case, but in the last few years, the international judges have seemed willing to evaluate the execution of routines with that we would normally consider an American lens. Has the "she will never receive those scores internationally" argument become a knee-jerk response to perceived overscoring without a strong correlation to fact? Will she probably receive those scores internationally as well?

Those are my questions, at least. So, as a way of reintroducing myself to the elite world, which at this point has been [scene missing] ever since the Olympics, I compared the execution scores given to the US team members in 2011 and 2012 at Classic/Championships/Trials with the scores they would later receive at Worlds/Olympics. (I went back no further than 2011 because I don't have the D/E breakdown for 2010 TF and AA and 2009 AA.) I threw out routines with falls and major mistakes, since they would skew the execution score in a misleading direction. This is about the evaluation of essentially equivalent routines, not comparing falls to hits. Certainly, there are differences in the actual quality of all routines (a wobble or two here, no wobbles there), but those issues should even out between the two sets of competitions, providing an overall reliable sense of how the judges are evaluating American performances.

Women's Team Final

This is it, our day of days. I hope the gymnasts are less nervous than I am right now, because otherwise they will all be falling all over the beam. If there was ever evidence that I could never be a high-level athlete, my mental state right now is it. I'm not even doing anything.

Gabby Douglas, Huang Qiushuang, and Ksenia Afanasyeva are all doing beam in an Olympic Team Final. I think I have reason to be disconcerted. How many times over the months and years have we said, "over my dead body" about all three of those?

My current state:

Well, here we go. All of the attention will revolve around how the US hasn't won since 1996, but the Russians have technically never won (as an independent state), so both are overdue. China is relying on Yao to do vault in Team Finals, so that tells me what I need to know about their chances, and Romania just isn't strong enough on bars or vault (aside from Izbasa) to challenge hits from the US and Russia. I say hits, but honestly I would be surprised if either the US or Russia goes 12 for 12 tonight. There will be falls, the question is when and how many.

Follow along after the jump at 11:30 ET/8:30 PT

Live Women's Qualification - Subdivision 3

We are soon to get underway in the third subdivision of Women's Qualification, which features the US, Great Britain, France, and Canada. The final three subdivisions are the main event today, and I'm  excited to see what the US can put up. Does it make me a bad gymnastics fan if I'm going to follow the US team from apparatus to apparatus instead of watching the main feed? I can watch the other important routines (so, Tweddle's bars) on replay. The non-US question of this group will be whether a PPL-free Canada can beat Australia's fall-laden score.

For the United States, the most important routines will be Maroney's vault (is she really ready to do it at the 16.000 level she needs?), Wieber's bars (that routine composition is hanging by a thread), and Douglas's beam (obviously). If they get what they need out of those performances, it will be a successful day. Also, keep your eye on the ball, and the ball is Aly Raisman. She's not so far behind Wieber and Douglas in AA scoring potential. A fall from one of them could become a total thing.


What's going to happen here?

Current Standings after two subdivisions
Team:
1. Italy - 168.397
2. Australia - 166.721
3. Brazil - 161. 295

All-Around:
1. Ferrari - 57.932
2. Gomez Porras - 56.132
3. Ferlito - 55.500
4. Steingruber - 54.715
5. Little - 54.498

Competition begins at 9:45 ET/6:45 PT with commentary here.

Trials Eve

Are there times when you wish you were a only a casual gymnastics fan? I do right now. Then, I would be going into Trials not knowing who the team might be and wondering what kind of exciting gymnastics I'm going to see. We spoil it for ourselves sometimes.

Examiner Blythe quotes Martha as saying what we already know. "Really, very honestly, I have one ideal team in my head. I still have the same team in my mind as I did two months ago." So do we, Martha. So do we.

I don't follow MAG as closely, but it seems like that race is a little more open, at least for the last spot. People who follow it obsessively may already know the team, but I don't, so I have that exciting, casual feeling going into those Trials.

Women's podium training yielding nothing much new. Nastia completed a bar routine that looks like it's going to be 50/50 for hitting in competition. Regardless of the hitting, the difficulty is just 6.5, which is not high enough for a specialist.

Many of the veterans are going through the motions when it comes to interviews about how they fit into the team, but you can tell that they know the game. I don't see a ton of delusion from those on the outside, which is nice. They can go out and enjoy their final elite competition, and we can enjoy watching them for the last time.

As we turn to evaluating how the group might fare in London, we need to look at a few specific routines. Unfortunately, the necessities of the five-member team leave few questions as to who will compete what in Team Finals (except perhaps floor), but the decision as to who will be the All-Around gymnasts could be made based on performances this weekend, so that will be fun to watch. The team is brimming with Amanars, but how people hit them at Trials will help determine lineups, so watch that. Martha loves Aly Raisman's sturdiness, which makes me think Aly is still in it for an AA spot, but the tide certainly is moving the other direction. If she scores lowest of the main group on vault and bars (quite possible), how can she be kept in the AA? Expect Douglas and Wieber to go 1-2, but watch the fight for third. Ross beating Raisman could seal that.

From Championships to Trials

Visa Championships came and went last weekend, and ultimately we leaned little that we didn't already know about the potential makeup of the US Olympic team. No one who isn't named Wieber, Douglas, Raisman, Ross, and Maroney did enough to put themselves into serious consideration. But we're gym fans, so we'll find a way to make Trials not boring. We always do. Can Nastia dismount? Will Martha pretend to consider taking Anna Li? Will Alicia magically have an upgraded vault and a floor routine? Will Maroney recover from her nose concussion? Will Kupets come back? 

The US is in an interesting position because, while all the other major contenders are doing the Amanar Scramble (a new option at Denny's), the US is doing the "Sweet Lord, is that your bars composition?" Two-Step. Other teams are trying to find the best vault options while the US is trying to find the least horrible bars option. It has become obvious that Jordyn Wieber will do bars in Team Finals, and she will go over on a handstand and get a 14.100, and everyone will just need to deal with it.



I still have a feeling that Martha will try to go out of her way to put Nastia on the team if she looks at all believable (meaning she hits two bar routines at Trials and outscores Ross), but the realistic storyline I'm most interested in is the Wieber/Douglas AA battle. It's irrelevant to team selection, but it will be great to see how it plays out. John Geddert will likely win Best Supporting Actress in an Olympic Trials. Well, it will be either him or Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey. It will be difficult for Geddert to cope if Wieber loses. We'll hear a lot of "National Championships is the one that matters." Maggie Smith will be fine is she doesn't win. She'll throw a double layout at the Olympics anyway.

American Cup Preview

This Saturday's American Cup is a ridiculous little competition, largely because of the vast disparity between its perceived importance and its actual importance. Under normal human circumstances, an eight-competitor meet with a weak field where a certain winner is all but guaranteed would receive little more than a whisper of attention. But because it's an Olympic year, because the meet is in the US, because it's gymnastics on TV and we'll take what we can get, and because the NBC team pulls out gems like "The Most Important Annual International Meet on American Soil" (because that's such a tough category), we get unnaturally interested.

So, as a proud lemming to the unnatural interest in this ridiculous competition (and being a ridiculous person myself, we actually make a good match), I present my completely informed and professional preview of the women who will be competing this weekend.

Jordyn Wieber will almost certainly win this competition and has, more importantly, already been named to the Olympic team. You may have missed the announcement because it never happened, but it's nonetheless true. There will be a lot of talk in the coming months about how every spot is up for grabs. This is a lie. She's on the team barring injury. 

Wieber is the perfect gymnast for this code because of her consistency and broad skill set. But because we know she'll be part of the team, our attention turns from her strengths to the areas she needs to improve, so the big event to watch this weekend will be bars. Through savvy routine construction, John Geddert has tricked people into thinking that Wieber doesn't have a weakness, but she does and it's bars. Despite her high difficulty, she does not perform with a natural rhythm or cohesive line, and therefore needs those difficulty tenths to bump up her score. The presence of a disappointing trend in women's gymnastics, the Weiler kip, adds a general "Ode to Molasses" theme to her routine. We've been promised a reconstructed routine with improved details in 2012, and I hope to see just that because she is a likely bars worker for team finals. 

Aly Raisman is the second American competitor, and I have a definite soft spot in my cold gymnastics heart for our sturdy little Massachusetts Romanian. She's becoming more comfortable in interviews and is refreshingly self-aware regarding her weaknesses. She would be the first to tell you that artistry, flexibility, and bars are not up to the expected level. That's certainly true, but because she knows it, I can look past it. She's not out there pretending she's an awesome dancer.

Raisman is clearly a Martha favorite (we all remember the "Here's my BEAMER! Next beamer!" heard round the world from 2010), and her unflappable solidity on beam and difficulty on floor should put her in prime position heading into the summer. That being said, I still have reservations about her spot on the team because she is just so easy to overlook. She's like the Lady Edith of Team USA. She really needs to go drive a tractor and help at the convalescent hospital so she can stand out. Debuting a competent version of her long-suffering Amanar would go a long way toward helping her chances.

But speaking of which, why have I not done a Downton Abbey/Elite Gymnastics conversion before? Nastia is Lady Mary, obviously. Martha is the Dowager Countess. Bruno Grandi and Nellie Kim are Thomas and O'Brien. Is Kim Zmeskal Anna? She would totally help Nastia carry the body of her dead Turkish lover back to his own bedroom, if you know what I mean.

Moving on, after the jump I'll look at the international competitors who have been kind enough to offer to play the roles of the Washington Generals on Saturday.

Kelli Hill is Carson.

OK, now I'm really done.