Friday Live Blog – Florida @ Alabama, Michigan, Nastia Cup

Friday – 2/28/14
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [23] Kent State, BYU @ [8] Michigan (Scores) (Video - all-access subscription)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [11] Auburn @ [24] Kentucky (Scores) (Video - all-access subscription)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Bridgeport, Western Michigan, Yale @ [18] Penn State (Scores) (Video - all-access subscription)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [21] Denver @ Michigan State (Scores) (Video - free)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Nastia Cup (Scores) (Video - free)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Missouri @ [1] LSU (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [15] Illinois @ [2] Oklahoma (Scores)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Washington @ [5] Utah (Scores)
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [3] Florida @ [4] Alabama (Scores) (Video - free)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Iowa @ [17] Boise State (Scores) (Video)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [25] Southern Utah @ San Jose State (Scores) (Video)

Current top 15:

The Weekend Ahead – February 28-March 2

Going into the weekend, we have a tight three-way race for the #1 ranking, and it's imaginable that any one of LSU, Oklahoma, and Florida could emerge with that coveted status when the day is done. All three teams will be competing at the same time on Friday, which should make for an exciting back-and-forth of score watching to see who is inching ahead. Even though the Gators currently sit at #3, they look to be the favorites to take over as #1, given that they have the chance to drop a 196.650 and jump up multiple tenths. In fact, if they score a 197.625 or greater, they are guaranteed sole possession of #1. Otherwise, it may just come down to which team scores higher on the given day.

The big showdown on Friday will see Florida face off with Alabama in one of the most anticipated meets of the season. Florida has been the better-performing team overall this year, but is still trying to deliver that big score away from home. Alabama has no trouble competing at home, as you might have heard. In case you're keeping track, Alabama has not lost a home meet since February 13, 2009, falling to LSU 196.625-195.750 after multiple mistakes on both beam and floor. So that's the streak the Tide must defend tomorrow night against a Florida team coming off a home 198. It's a clash of favorites.

For Florida, replicating the home success on floor will be crucial in the quest for victory. The Gators' home average on floor is a 49.650, while their road average is a 49.200. Some of that is home boosting, but a lot of it is also the quality of performance. They must be more like home performers to win against an Alabama team that has started to put it together on the event with the Jacob/Milliner dynamic duo at the back making 49.5s realistic. Hunter and Sloan will have to be on their tumbling game to match routine for routine.

For Alabama, the fight will be on bars. The Tide has been perfectly fine on bars this year, 6th in the nation, with lots of 9.850s and 9.875s, but one of the concerns for this team is the lack of that big 9.9 performer who can save otherwise lackluster rotations with a huge exclamation point routine. Florida has several of those performers, and if they can get sticks, will look to build up a lead on that event early on to hold them through to the end. A Florida 49.500 on bars will be tough for Alabama to match, but if Florida is giving away bits and pieces and scores in the 49.350-49.400 area, there will be a lot of chop licking going on in Alabama.

The Individuals

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE TEAM, YOU GUYS!

Except for right now because I'm talking about individuals and their various individualities. That's right, it's time to think about the all-around. The NCAA all-around title is a bit like the ugly cousin who is forced to live in the attic and be silent when visitors come around (you know, like you have). No one is really allowed to talk about it or acknowledge caring about it because that might make it seem like they are putting personal goals above the team (THE HORROR!), but the quest for the all-around title is an exciting battle this year that I'm eager to keep an eye on more than I have been in most years for some reason. 

So, who are the frontrunners? I'm glad you asked, person I invented. There are a few. One might look at the RQS rankings to find out, but this is the balance beam situation. It's about going deeper. The season RQS leader is notorious for not winning the ultimate AA title, unless you're Courtney Kupets (which is a phrase I use a lot—she should write an autobiography called Unless You're Courtney Kupets). Season average is a slightly better indicator, but why use one indicator when you can use 8? Exactly.

I have taken the top AA contenders this season and ranked them in a series of categories below [rankings are in brackets], including RQS, season averages, and high scores, and then averaged their rankings from each category. My focus in these categories is more on season averages than RQSs because I think the averages are more helpful in this kind of evaluation. RQS tends to get rid of the bad performances, reflecting a gymnast's quality at her peak rather than quality throughout the season, but increased potential for mistakes is important to take into account when evaluating AA contention. For instance, Kytra Hunter can be great on beam, but her inconsistency so far this season is quite relevant to this discussion and gives her a question mark on that event that some of the other top women may not have. 

The list is limited to 16 gymnasts–anyone who has hit 39.500 in the AA in any meet this year and is currently making all four lineups for her team. That means that Georgia Dabritz is included because she's in on beam now, and if she can even do just OK on beam, she can ride her other events to becoming a frontrunner. Conversely, Macko Caquatto isn't here because she hasn't appeared on floor in weeks. Although if she does come back, she's certainly another member of this conversation. We will have other contenders beyond this 16 emerge as we go on (for instance, Sam Peszek would certainly be right in any AA battle if UCLA can find enough super glue to get her feet in shape to compete floor), but for now these are the top 16 we have.  

This system is scientific kind of like in the way that awarding 10s has been scientific. Not. But I like it as an overview of who's in the picture right now moving into the business end of the regular season. 



1. Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.540 [3]
Season high: 39.750 [T1]
Season average: 39.593 [1]
Event averages:
VT - 9.929 [T2]
UB - 9.900 [2]
BB - 9.836 [T4]
FX - 9.929 [4]
High scores: VT - 9.950, UB - 9.925, BB - 10.000, FX - 10.000, TOTAL: 39.875 [1]

Average ranking: 2.250



2. Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.595 [1]
Season high: 39.750 [T1]
Season average: 39.525 [4]
Event averages: 
VT - 9.919 [4] 
UB - 9.834 [11]
BB - 9.872 [3]
FX - 9.900 [8]
High scores: VT - 10.000, UB - 9.950, BB - 9.950; FX - 9.950, TOTAL: 39.850 [2]

Average ranking: 4.250






3. Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.555 [2]
Season high: 39.725 [3] 
Season average: 39.568 [2]
Event averages:
VT - 9.907 [6]
UB - 9.843 [10]
BB - 9.886 [2]
FX - 9.932 [3]
High scores: VT - 9.950, UB - 9.900, BB - 9.925, FX - 9.950, TOTAL: 39.725 [T8]

Average ranking: 4.500



4. Kytra Hunter - Florida
RQS: 39.475 [5]
Season high: 39.700 [4] 
Season average: 39.513 [6]
Event averages:
VT - 9.936 [1]
UB - 9.832 [12]
BB - 9.739 [13]
FX - 9.954 [1]
High scores: VT - 10.000, UB - 9.900, BB - 9.900, FX - 10.000, TOTAL: 39.800 [T3]

Average ranking: 5.625



5. Georgia Dabritz - Utah
RQS: N/A [T14]
Season high: 39.625 [7]
Season average: 39.538 [3]
Event averages:
VT - 9.911 [5]
UB - 9.939 [1]
BB - 9.775 [11]
FX - 9.939 [2]
High scores: VT - 9.975, UB - 9.975, BB - 9.875, FX - 9.975, TOTAL: 39.800 [T3]

Average ranking: 5.750

Week 7 Rankings and RQS Update

The week's newest members of the 10 club:


Bonus points for originality. Yea or nay?


Cut to Brittani McCullough and Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs: "And I never got a 10 on floor?" 

Week 7 Rankings (GymInfo)
1. LSU – 197.470
Week 7: 197.625
Week 7 leaders: AA - Courville 39.675; VT - Courville, Jordan 9.950; UB - Courville, Morrison 9.950; BB - Jordan 9.925; FX - Hall 9.925

RQS:
Road Score 1: 197.875
Road Score 2: 197.650
Road Score 3: 197.625
Road/Home Score 1: 197.650
Road/Home Score 2: 197.225
Road/Home Score 3: 197.200

It's a historic ranking and historic RQS for the Tigers, who cannot be excluded from any attempt to construct the possible title contenders this season. Plus, they can realistically go much higher in RQS based on what we've seen so far and with those two home 197.2s still counting. Florida's epic 197.840 RQS from last season seems perhaps a bridge too far, but LSU (and all the top 3) can challenge. 

Note, however, that neither Oklahoma nor Florida are currently guaranteed to count anything under a 198, while LSU is guaranteed to count two 197s. There's much work to do if they want to hang onto #1 for any length of time.

2. Oklahoma – 197.405
Week 7: 197.200
Week 7 leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman 9.900; UB - Spears 9.875; BB - Clark 9.925; FX - Scaman 9.925

RQS:
Road Score 1: 198.175
Road Score 2: 197.575
Road Score 3: 197.225
Road/Home Score 1: 197.700
Road/Home Score 2: 197.325
Road/Home Score 3: 197.200

Both Oklahoma and LSU will be at home this weekend and both will have a 197.200 as the low score to drop, which means Oklahoma can move ahead by going at least 197.550 this weekend AND outscoring LSU by at least 0.350. A tough task, but possible.

3. Florida – 197.365
Week 7: 198.125
Week 7 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.700; VT - Hunter 10.000; UB - Johnson 9.925; BB - Sloan 9.950; FX - Hunter 9.975

RQS:
Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.650
Road/Home Score 1: 198.125
Road/Home Score 2: 198.050
Road/Home Score 3: 197.875

Florida had the misfortune of beating LSU and falling in the rankings because of the (relatively) deficient road scores counting for RQS. They'll have the opportunity to bump that score up this weekend in the extra-anticipated showdown in Alabama. The Gators can tie LSU's current RQS with only a 197.175 this weekend (and then obviously would have to score higher if LSU and Oklahoma also increase their RQSs), but that means that if all three teams score a 197.200, for instance, Florida becomes #1.

4. Alabama – 197.140
Week 7: 197.100
Week 7 leaders: AA - Milliner 39.525; VT - Milliner 9.975; UB - Jacob 9.875; BB - Jacob 9.900; FX - Milliner 9.900

RQS:
Road Score 1: 197.500
Road Score 2: 197.100
Road Score 3: 196.825
Road/Home Score 1: 197.500
Road/Home Score 2: 197.150
Road/Home Score 3: 197.125

Alabama dropped its one flaccid road score this weekend to leapfrog Utah, at least for the moment. But with just one road meet remaining, they're already guaranteed to count a 197.100, which means it will be a major challenge to move up any higher than 4th unless they can start balancing it out with 198s at home as Florida is doing. 

5. Utah – 197.015
Week 7: 197.575
Week 7 leaders: AA - Dabritz 39.625; VT - Delaney, Wilson 9.950; UB - Dabritz 9.950; BB - Lofgren 9.925; FX - Damianova 9.900

RQS:
Road Score 1: 197.200
Road Score 2: 196.875
Road Score 3: 196.300
Road/Home Score 1: 197.825
Road/Home Score 2: 197.575
Road/Home Score 3: 197.125

Similarly, Utah looks pretty healthy in the home score department but will have some pressure to get rid of those 196s in the remaining two road meets to get any higher in the rankings. And one of those road meets is at Michigan. I know the specter of "Michigan scoring" isn't really a thing anymore, but still, no opponent has scored a 197 at Michigan since 2011. At the same time, a lot of "no one has scored [blank] since . . . " have been broken already in 2014, the year of the 10.   

Saturday Pac-12 Meets – Oregon State @ Utah, Stanford @ UCLA

We have double Pac-12 duty tonight, with two (sort of) simultaneous meets to get through, both of which should provide a satisfying level of intrigue in both the rankings picture and the "can you hit beam?" picture.

We'll start with Oregon State and Utah, which can be viewed on the Pac-12 Network beginning at 8:00 ET/5:00 PT. Oregon State currently sits in a somewhat precarious RQS position, especially where road scores are concerned, so tonight is an opportunity to give themselves a serious dose of help. The Beavers are currently ranked 11th, and have lower-ranked teams like Minnesota nipping at them with solid mid 196s already this weekend. No team wants to finish ranked in those 11-14 places, resulting in a tough Regionals assignment with multiple other realistic contenders.

UCLA is another team needing a breakthrough performance, and I've beaten that horse enough already this year, so I'll just say that allegedly Danusia is returning tonight, which has the potential to make everything better.



I know I mentioned that I would like these videos to just be Val, which is still true, but Randy Lane.

Friday Meets – LSU @ Florida Live Blog, Georgia, Auburn

Friday – 2/21/14
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [3] LSU @ [1] Florida (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Kent State @ Ball State (Video)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [15] Minnesota @ Iowa State (Video - school subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Bart & Nadia Festival ([1] Oklahoma, [5] Alabama, [7] Michigan, West Virginia) (Scores)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [6] Georgia @ [10] Auburn (Scores) (Video - all-access subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Kentucky @ [13] Arkansas (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [14] Illinois, Illinois-Chicago, Northern Illinois @ Illinois State (Video)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – San Jose State @ [16] Boise State (Scores) (Video)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [18] Denver @ Utah State

Top 15:

Get. Ready.
It's going to be a good one.

The Weekend Ahead – February 21st-23rd

The ranking scenario gets a little funky this weekend as we switch over to RQS. LSU currently leads the RQS battle with a 197.380, but the Tigers are heading away to Florida while trying to fend off an Oklahoma team that's not far behind with a 197.300 (and still has a 196.675 to drop). If the Sooners score in the 197s this weekend (which seems likely), they will have the opportunity to move ahead of LSU's current mark, though LSU can also increase its number by going 197.250+, which is also quite doable. Florida cannot mathematically move ahead of LSU this weekend (but can get close), so it's a battle between LSU and Oklahoma for #1.



The top teams are confined to just a couple different meets this weekend, a few of which will make for a very enticing Friday of action. The showdown between LSU and Florida makes up part of LSU's quest for a whole tuft of feathers in their cap, though Florida will enter the meet as the home favorite. It's going to be an exceptional challenge for LSU to beat Florida's 10 machine in Gainesville, but the Tigers also managed a few 10s of their own last weekend, so we could certainly see them fly tomorrow. Dueling 198s are not out of the question.

A few teams have come into Florida this season and stayed close for three rotations before falling back in rotation 4, performing on beam while Florida is on floor. LSU will also lose ground in the final rotation, so it's vital that they be ahead by several tenths after three events to have a shot at the upset. The one area where LSU appears to have a clear advantage is in the first four performers of the vault lineup, so watch for that scoring comparison at the halfway point. LSU will need to pick up ground there. For Florida to maintain its pristine record, the team will need to eradicate those beam wobbles, obviously, but also focus in on sticking more of those bars landings. The Gators can and should have an advantage over LSU on bars, but it won't happen if they're not getting multiple stuck DLOs, which has yet to happen. I'm also eager to see how the scoring goes on floor since LSU is capable of matching Florida routine-for-routine on that event. Do they get the 10s as well?