UCLA
Vanessa Zamarripa is planning to return to elite. We'll see. Her gymnastics is so easy to root for, but she will have a tough road from now until next fall. I'm encouraged that she's training for it now, but in 2010 she was not up to the level of competition on beam and floor. Three years and an Achilles tear won't make it any easier to be competitive there. Specializing on vault and bars may be a prudent choice depending on her goals.
If she is serious about making a Worlds team, 2013 is her year because she could conceivably be selected solely for vault, especially if no one else is vaulting two viable vaults. Even to make the team as a vault specialist, though, she's going to need to get the Cheng back (and make it consistent) and upgrade to a DTY to be worth taking. We haven't seen more than a Yurchenko full from her in competition, so we can't just assume a DTY. That vault program is not a given.
Gymnastike has this labeled as Zamarripa's 2013 NCAA routine, but I assume this is a midway work-in-progress routine somewhere between NCAA and elite. It currently doesn't have a turning element, but regardless of that it is needlessly complex for NCAA, with skills like the clear hip after the shaposh that take away from Zamarripa's cleanliness, yet too simple to be competitive in elite.
Alyssa Pritchett is planning a double double on floor. Never trust a preseason upgrade (competition or it didn't happen), but Pritchett's old routine was always going to be in the 9.850 area when hit. Her tuck full was not perfect, so this could be a smart move if it materializes because the judges may decide to give her a difficulty hall pass, which could see her recording some 9.900s away from home.
UTAH
Vault and Bars
November 24, 2012
November 18, 2012
Fear the Beam 2012
The balance beam, she is a cruel mistress.
In 2011, I examined her cruelty by analyzing how teams fared when performing beam routines after a fall earlier in the rotation. The study yielded the following breakthrough: everything is horrible. Nearly every team had significant difficulty breaking 9.800 in those post-fall routines, often suffering a subsequent fall (or two).
But what's this? A ray of hope? For this past season, I analyzed the same data for the schools that qualified to Championships, averaging the scores for all routines performed on beam at any point after a fall or fall-equivalent performance (a score of 9.500 or lower), and found significantly stronger results across the country. In fact, beam was the lowest-scoring apparatus for a grand total of none of the teams during this year's Super Six, and most teams put up respectable numbers over the course of the season.
Average beam score after a fall – 2012
1. Florida – 9.885
2. Alabama – 9.841
3. Oklahoma – 9.869
4. Utah – 9.814
5. Arkansas – 9.809
6. UCLA – 9.808
7. Ohio State – 9.780
8. Oregon State – 9.769
9. Georgia – 9.725
10. Nebraska – 9.722
11. Stanford – 9.700
12. LSU – 9.688
For comparison, last year's leader, Utah, would have placed 7th in this year's rankings. In fact, compared to last season, Georgia and Stanford are the only schools analyzed in both lists that regressed in their performances. Georgia actually did pretty well on beam through most of 2012, but the disaster from Championships brought the average down significantly.
Florida managed a stellar 9.885 and did not record a post-fall beam score lower than 9.850 all year. Now, the Gators did perform only 5 routines after falls all year, so they did not have as many opportunities to ruin everything.
Number of beam routines after falls – 2012
1. Florida – 5
2. Oklahoma – 8
3. Stanford – 10
4. Georgia - 12
5. Alabama – 14
6. Utah – 20
7. Oregon State – 22
8. Arkansas – 25
9. UCLA – 26
10. LSU – 31
11. Ohio State – 32
12. Nebraska – 38
The difference in consistency is slightly amazing. Rare was the week that Nebraska or Ohio State was not fighting an early fall. Nebraska performed 78 beam routines as a team last year, and 38 (49%) of those routines took place after someone else had already fallen.
In theory, these first two lists should match up almost exactly because the best teams on beam will suffer the fewest falls and record the highest scores overall, but as we see that's not always true. For instance, our regressed schools Stanford and Georgia performed relatively few routines after beam falls but fared rather poorly in those routines. Arkansas and UCLA, however, maintained relatively strong averages considering how many pressure-filled beam routines they were forced to perform.
Interestingly, our individual standouts did not always come from the strongest teams.
In 2011, I examined her cruelty by analyzing how teams fared when performing beam routines after a fall earlier in the rotation. The study yielded the following breakthrough: everything is horrible. Nearly every team had significant difficulty breaking 9.800 in those post-fall routines, often suffering a subsequent fall (or two).
But what's this? A ray of hope? For this past season, I analyzed the same data for the schools that qualified to Championships, averaging the scores for all routines performed on beam at any point after a fall or fall-equivalent performance (a score of 9.500 or lower), and found significantly stronger results across the country. In fact, beam was the lowest-scoring apparatus for a grand total of none of the teams during this year's Super Six, and most teams put up respectable numbers over the course of the season.
Average beam score after a fall – 2012
1. Florida – 9.885
2. Alabama – 9.841
3. Oklahoma – 9.869
4. Utah – 9.814
5. Arkansas – 9.809
6. UCLA – 9.808
7. Ohio State – 9.780
8. Oregon State – 9.769
9. Georgia – 9.725
10. Nebraska – 9.722
11. Stanford – 9.700
12. LSU – 9.688
For comparison, last year's leader, Utah, would have placed 7th in this year's rankings. In fact, compared to last season, Georgia and Stanford are the only schools analyzed in both lists that regressed in their performances. Georgia actually did pretty well on beam through most of 2012, but the disaster from Championships brought the average down significantly.
Florida managed a stellar 9.885 and did not record a post-fall beam score lower than 9.850 all year. Now, the Gators did perform only 5 routines after falls all year, so they did not have as many opportunities to ruin everything.
Number of beam routines after falls – 2012
1. Florida – 5
2. Oklahoma – 8
3. Stanford – 10
4. Georgia - 12
5. Alabama – 14
6. Utah – 20
7. Oregon State – 22
8. Arkansas – 25
9. UCLA – 26
10. LSU – 31
11. Ohio State – 32
12. Nebraska – 38
The difference in consistency is slightly amazing. Rare was the week that Nebraska or Ohio State was not fighting an early fall. Nebraska performed 78 beam routines as a team last year, and 38 (49%) of those routines took place after someone else had already fallen.
In theory, these first two lists should match up almost exactly because the best teams on beam will suffer the fewest falls and record the highest scores overall, but as we see that's not always true. For instance, our regressed schools Stanford and Georgia performed relatively few routines after beam falls but fared rather poorly in those routines. Arkansas and UCLA, however, maintained relatively strong averages considering how many pressure-filled beam routines they were forced to perform.
Interestingly, our individual standouts did not always come from the strongest teams.
November 13, 2012
NLI Week
Starting Wednesday, we will begin to receive the official announcements of gymnasts signing their National Letters of Intent for the 2013-2014 season. The signing period lasts until November 21st.
Most of this information is already available because of verbal commitments (and the list can be seen here), but there are always a few talking points once the press releases come out. This will also give us an opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses in each team's recruiting classes moving beyond this season.
I will compile the release links for the major teams here as the week progresses.
Alabama - Release
Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey
Florida - Release
Claire Boyce, Silvia Colussi-Pelaez, and Morgan Frazier
UCLA - Release
Hallie Mossett and Angela Cipra
Oklahoma - Release
McKenzie Wofford, Charity Jones, Kara Lovan, Chayse Capps, and Reagan Hemry
Georgia - Release
Ashlyn Broussard, Kiera Brown, Rachel Schick, and Morgan Reynolds
Utah - Release
Baely Rowe
Stanford - Release
Sophia Lee, Rachel Daum, and Carinne Gale
Arkansas - Release
Samantha Nelson, Paris Ryder, and Amanda Wellick
Oregon State - Release
Megan Jimenez, Kana Kobayashi, Kaytianna McMillian, and Taylor Ricci
LSU - Release
Ashleigh Gnat and Shonacee Oliva.
Ohio State - Release
Tenille Funches, Anna Hill, and Jaine' Van Putten
Michigan - Release
Talia Chiarelli
Illinois - Release
Mary Jane Horth, Erin Buchanan, and Sarah Lyons
Missouri - Release
Alyson Heimsath, Lark Pokladnik, and Sasha Sander
Auburn - Release
Mary Jane Rott and Kullen Hlawek
Washington - Release
Megan DeLallo, Alexandra Yavalis, Stephanie Stowe, Kaitlyn Duranczyk, and Jessica Nesis
Most of this information is already available because of verbal commitments (and the list can be seen here), but there are always a few talking points once the press releases come out. This will also give us an opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses in each team's recruiting classes moving beyond this season.
I will compile the release links for the major teams here as the week progresses.
Alabama - Release
Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey
Florida - Release
Claire Boyce, Silvia Colussi-Pelaez, and Morgan Frazier
UCLA - Release
Hallie Mossett and Angela Cipra
Oklahoma - Release
McKenzie Wofford, Charity Jones, Kara Lovan, Chayse Capps, and Reagan Hemry
Georgia - Release
Ashlyn Broussard, Kiera Brown, Rachel Schick, and Morgan Reynolds
Utah - Release
Baely Rowe
Stanford - Release
Sophia Lee, Rachel Daum, and Carinne Gale
Arkansas - Release
Samantha Nelson, Paris Ryder, and Amanda Wellick
Oregon State - Release
Megan Jimenez, Kana Kobayashi, Kaytianna McMillian, and Taylor Ricci
LSU - Release
Ashleigh Gnat and Shonacee Oliva.
Ohio State - Release
Tenille Funches, Anna Hill, and Jaine' Van Putten
Michigan - Release
Talia Chiarelli
Illinois - Release
Mary Jane Horth, Erin Buchanan, and Sarah Lyons
Missouri - Release
Alyson Heimsath, Lark Pokladnik, and Sasha Sander
Auburn - Release
Mary Jane Rott and Kullen Hlawek
Washington - Release
Megan DeLallo, Alexandra Yavalis, Stephanie Stowe, Kaitlyn Duranczyk, and Jessica Nesis
November 10, 2012
Ranking the 2012 Floor Final
Continuing the mission to pick the real winner of things, it's time to look at the 2012 NCAA Floor Final, a.k.a. the vacation home of our very best friend, controversy.
Unlike the vault 10s, in this case we do have an actual winner. Kat Ding won the title with a 9.950 over the 9.9375s for Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs and Geralen Stack-Eaton. There were . . . a lot of opinions about this result the first time around, so it will be interesting to see how things have developed now that we've had months to reflect.
The top 5 finishers are included below. Watch the routines and rank how you think they should have finished. I did not include the 9.900 routines from Zamarripa, Dickerson, and DeZiel because, while they were solid performances, none would be mistaken for a potential winner. The real shame is that Jaime Pisani probably should have been our floor champ, but she didn't have a strong performance in the final.
(Where would we be without NastiaFan101 uploading all these individual routines?)
Kat Ding - 9.950
Unlike the vault 10s, in this case we do have an actual winner. Kat Ding won the title with a 9.950 over the 9.9375s for Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs and Geralen Stack-Eaton. There were . . . a lot of opinions about this result the first time around, so it will be interesting to see how things have developed now that we've had months to reflect.
The top 5 finishers are included below. Watch the routines and rank how you think they should have finished. I did not include the 9.900 routines from Zamarripa, Dickerson, and DeZiel because, while they were solid performances, none would be mistaken for a potential winner. The real shame is that Jaime Pisani probably should have been our floor champ, but she didn't have a strong performance in the final.
(Where would we be without NastiaFan101 uploading all these individual routines?)
Kat Ding - 9.950
November 3, 2012
Ranking the Vault 10s
In 2012, we saw five 10s awarded on vault.
There are two types of gymnastics fans: Those who say, "Great for them! They're all winners!" and those who say, "But who is the actual winner?"
I think it's time to pick an actual winner. The videos of the five vaults are provided below. Let's all watch and rank, and we'll come up with a winner among the 10s.
Feel free to move beyond the scoring system and embrace the inherent subjectivity by using any and all criteria you think is appropriate: body shape, landing position, block, amplitude, distance, difficulty, artistic interpretation, hairstyle selection, ability to convey a theme through movement, leotard quality, coach reaction, etc. Use it all.
Geralen Stack Eaton – January 13, 2012
There are two types of gymnastics fans: Those who say, "Great for them! They're all winners!" and those who say, "But who is the actual winner?"
I think it's time to pick an actual winner. The videos of the five vaults are provided below. Let's all watch and rank, and we'll come up with a winner among the 10s.
Feel free to move beyond the scoring system and embrace the inherent subjectivity by using any and all criteria you think is appropriate: body shape, landing position, block, amplitude, distance, difficulty, artistic interpretation, hairstyle selection, ability to convey a theme through movement, leotard quality, coach reaction, etc. Use it all.
Geralen Stack Eaton – January 13, 2012
October 28, 2012
Freshman Orientation: UCLA
I had been holding off on previewing the UCLA freshmen because there is still a degree of doubt as to what the Peng plan is. Peng Peng Lee is in the recovery phase from her summer ACL tear, and at this point it is unclear if UCLA will push to get her back by the end of the season on any event, or if this will simply be a redshirt year. It's a crucial decision because, aside from being every NCAA fan's favorite elite, Lee was going to be the integral part of Operation Enduring Canada. UCLA lost two stellar northerners in Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs and Aisha Gerber, and Lee seemed like the only freshman who could fill Gerber's leotard on bars and beam, at least until Gerber Part Deux arrives in 2013-2014.
In addition to Gerber's bars and beam, UCLA will need to find people to bring in the 9.9s that EHH was delivering on beam and floor and that Tauny Frattone was consistently posting on vault. (I'm less concerned about EHH's vault and Frattone's floor because those should be competently replaced by any number of gymnasts.) Lee would have been tasked with the major part of that assignment, but without her, the other freshmen tasked with keeping UCLA competitive with Alabama and Florida are Danusia Francis, Sophina DeJesus, and Asi Peko, each of whom will be expected to contribute multiple routines to the Zamarripa/Peszek/(Larson?) show in 2013.
Peng Peng Lee
In addition to Gerber's bars and beam, UCLA will need to find people to bring in the 9.9s that EHH was delivering on beam and floor and that Tauny Frattone was consistently posting on vault. (I'm less concerned about EHH's vault and Frattone's floor because those should be competently replaced by any number of gymnasts.) Lee would have been tasked with the major part of that assignment, but without her, the other freshmen tasked with keeping UCLA competitive with Alabama and Florida are Danusia Francis, Sophina DeJesus, and Asi Peko, each of whom will be expected to contribute multiple routines to the Zamarripa/Peszek/(Larson?) show in 2013.
Peng Peng Lee
October 27, 2012
Freshman Orientation: Oklahoma
It was a severely depleted Sooner team that limped to a still-respectable 196.925 at National Semifinals last year, missing out on Super Six for the first time in three years. Couple the graduations of Megan Ferguson, Sara Stone, and Candace Cindell with the returns of Kayla Nowak, Rebecca Clark, and Lauren Alexander and the introductions of Keeley Kmieciak, Haley Scaman, Maile'ana Kanewa, and Hunter Price, and I think we can expect the 2013 Sooners to be a completely different animal from the group we saw compete at the end of 2012.
The most high-profile challenge for Oklahoma this season will be finding a way to withstand the loss of Ferguson's three 9.9+ routines. In typical Oklahoma fashion, I expect that to be a team effort. I don't see one single member of this 2013 group suddenly emerging as a multiple-9.9 machine. Different stars on different events will likely help this team 9.875 most opponents to death.
While the hole left by Ferguson will be notable, I'm more interested in how this group of freshmen will contribute on Ferguson's nonevent, vault. Vault saw the most serious depletion last year (poor Haley Sorensen was put in the position of having to contribute even though no one could have expected more than a 9.700 from her). Still, no gymnasts recorded 9.9s at Regionals or National Semifinals, so even a healthy team would have been unlikely to contend with the 49.600 sisters. In addition, they have lost their best vaulter in Sara Stone, so the Sooners will need the biggest contribution from the freshmen there, and it appears they will get it.
Keeley Kmieciak was the strongest vaulter in JO last year and recorded the only 9.900 at JO Nationals with her stuck Yurchenko 1.5. Haley Scaman also has a very strong Y1.5 than can verge on excellent. Look for these two to help lift Oklahoma out of that gully of Yurchenko halves they have been sitting in recently.
The most high-profile challenge for Oklahoma this season will be finding a way to withstand the loss of Ferguson's three 9.9+ routines. In typical Oklahoma fashion, I expect that to be a team effort. I don't see one single member of this 2013 group suddenly emerging as a multiple-9.9 machine. Different stars on different events will likely help this team 9.875 most opponents to death.
While the hole left by Ferguson will be notable, I'm more interested in how this group of freshmen will contribute on Ferguson's nonevent, vault. Vault saw the most serious depletion last year (poor Haley Sorensen was put in the position of having to contribute even though no one could have expected more than a 9.700 from her). Still, no gymnasts recorded 9.9s at Regionals or National Semifinals, so even a healthy team would have been unlikely to contend with the 49.600 sisters. In addition, they have lost their best vaulter in Sara Stone, so the Sooners will need the biggest contribution from the freshmen there, and it appears they will get it.
Keeley Kmieciak was the strongest vaulter in JO last year and recorded the only 9.900 at JO Nationals with her stuck Yurchenko 1.5. Haley Scaman also has a very strong Y1.5 than can verge on excellent. Look for these two to help lift Oklahoma out of that gully of Yurchenko halves they have been sitting in recently.
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