Oklahoma won the national title six whole days ago, which is like a thousand years ago. Sorry, Oklahoma. We're moving on. What have you done for us lately? Basically nothing? That's what I thought.
The 2017 season is just around the corner, as long as that corner is really, really far away. We don't know anything real about 2017 yet, but we do know which valuable gems and enthusiastic leaders in the training gym we won't see next year, along with which bright new lights full of possibilities and undiagnosed shin problems will be joining the teams in their place.
Detailed looks at each team and roster will come much later, when the season approaches and I actually vaguely know who these JO gymnasts are, but let's call this a preliminary glance at who's coming and who's going on each team now that the 2016 season is closed and locked away forever and the traditional eight-month moratorium has been placed on the terms "parity," "yurchenko arabian," "confident leadoff," and "life lessons." I've placed the top teams into various categories based on the current outlook and added the RQSs for the routines they will lose after 2016.
This is, of course, assuming that people do what they're supposed to and don't suddenly turn pro or run off to join a traveling circus or whatever.
Smooth sailing
LSU
Out: Jessica Savona, Randii Wyrick, Michelle Gauthier
In: Ruby Harrold, Kennedi Edney, Ashlyn Kirby
Savona - VT - 9.820 avg; UB - 9.840; FX - 9.902 avg
Wyrick - UB - 9.810; FX - 9.905
The Tigers certainly lose a few critical routines, the most important being Savona's floor, though they already gained some experience with life after Savona's vault and floor when she was out early this season (and life after Wyrick's bars when she didn't compete in the postseason). They survived, for the most part. Several of these openings should be filled by people already on the roster, and while I don't think we can have any expectations for Priessman at this point because any week she's healthy enough to compete is just a bonus, Kelley should do more next year. Add to that this freshman class, and I think there's every reason to expect LSU 2017 to be stronger than LSU 2016.
ALABAMA
Out: Lauren Beers, Carley Sims
In: Maddie Desch, Wynter Childers, Shea Mahoney
Beers - VT - 9.905; UB - 9.690; FX - 9.915
Sims - FX - 9.868
Alabama is in a similar position to LSU in terms of not losing that many routines, though Alabama's losses carry a bit more significance, especially on floor with the team's two strongest floories departing. They'll need some of the upperclassmen like Brannan to step up and be a little more Beersy on those events and a little less middle-of-the-lineupy, but with increased contribution from a potential star like Ari Guerra who didn't figure at all by the end of the season and the introduction of Maddie Desch and Wynter Childers, Alabama's first-ever recruit who's also a citizen of District 1, I'm not too worried about the look of Alabama's future roster.
CAL
Out: Serena Leong (?), Kristina Heymann
In: Cassidy Keelen, Rachael Mastrangelo
Cal can't have much to complain about in terms of roster shake-ups since the only two seniors on the roster for 2016 were Heymann, who used to contribute a backup vault, and Leong, who has been injured forever and would be in line for a redshirt season. When healthy, Leong was half of the duo that ushered in Cal's rebirth, along with Asturias. Regardless, Cal shouldn't have to lose anything at all from this season's 7th-place team, only gain for next year. The future is bright.
Dark, but hopeful
These schools will lose many more significant routines than the smooth-sailing schools, but their incoming classes are cause for optimism about maintaining or improving their current levels nonetheless.
OKLAHOMA
Out: Haley Scaman, Keeley Kmieciak, Hunter Price, Nicole Turner
In: Maggie Nichols, Brenna Dowell, Brehanna Showers, Jade Degouveia
Scaman - VT - 9.890; UB - 9.880; FX - 9.945
Kmieciak - VT - 9.865; UB - 9.930; BB - 9.870; FX - 9.870
Price - VT - 9.871 avg
Oh hi, we just won a national championship, and we're going to have Maggie Nichols and Brenna Dowell (back) next year. Oklahoma is losing eight routines from the championship lineups (which is a high but not necessarily devastating number), though nearly every one of those routines was a realistic and regular 9.900. But then, if Nichols and Dowell do show up and deliver next year, that's pretty much your eight high-scoring replacement routines right there (Dowell didn't compete beam in 2015 but I think we all expect that she will Brandie Jay on beam at some point in her OU career). That doesn't even account for the other newcomers, the traditional Oklahoma magicking up of unexpected routines, and the extra redshirt season from long lost Maile Kanewa.
FLORIDA
Out: Bridget Sloan, Bridgey Caquatto, Bianca Dancose-Giambattisto, Morgan Frazier
In: Amelia Hundley, Alyssa Baumann, Rachel Gowey, Maegan Chant
Sloan - VT - 9.900; UB - 9.945; BB - 9.910; FX - 9.950
Caquatto - VT - 9.810; UB - 9.915; FX - 9.900
BDG - UB - 9.865
You wouldn't think the Gators would be in much trouble next year since they're simply losing the services of that non-competing walk-on Bridget Sloan. (Who?) Still, somehow, Florida is bleeding the same number of essential routines as Oklahoma, with the added problem of losing the team's big old star, 10.0-machine, and four-year identity of the program. It's a worry. Fortunately, as Jean-Ralphio would say, this freshman class is off the cherrrrts.
Because Florida is losing such important gymnasts, however, these newbies can't come in and be I'm-not-helping elites who are perpetually injured. They have to be multi-event 9.9s, which will make it interesting to watch how they progress during this summer's Trials season. None are in the serious hunt for the US Olympic team, but that doesn't mean they can't be ground into a fine powder trying. Baumann and Gowey are beautiful rays of starlight, but they also have that fragile "I can only do bars and beam in college because my bones are now made of tears and hope" look to them, and Amelia Hundley is from CGA, so enough said. Florida will need to get a couple big leg-event routines out of this group.
Showing posts with label Stanford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stanford. Show all posts
April 22, 2016
April 7, 2016
National Championships Preview Part 1: Innocent Gymnasts versus the Beam Troll
Gather round, darling children, and learn about the NCAA national championship, a far-off magical land where all the most glorious gymnasts assemble in an arena made of gumdrops and frozen tears for a battle royale to see who can force the biggest fake smile after her teammate falls on beam. It's always a really close contest.
As is only traditional, let's begin at the start. The first of the two semifinals will take place in the void between the dimensions on April 15th at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT and should be a doozy.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before floor)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[6] Auburn (vault)
[9] Georgia (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[18] Stanford (bars)
Competing individuals
All-around – Nicole Artz, Michigan; Alison Northey, Washington; Morgan Porter, Missouri; Sidney Dukes, Kentucky; Alex Hyland, Kentucky; Danielle Ramirez, Southern Utah
Vault – Meaghan Sievers, Iowa State
Beam – Lexi Mills, Arizona
Floor – Talia Chiarelli, Michigan; Brianna Tsang, Penn State; Lindsay Offutt, Pittsburgh
An argument can be made for five of these six teams advancing without having to concoct very many insane circumstances at all (sorry, Minnesota, but it would take a splatfest from the others). The big five should all expect to score into the 197s and will be disappointed by anything less than that. Even though we see 197s fall all over the place during the regular season, it's not a given that the challenging teams will reach that plateau in this meet as scores tend to tighten at nationals (tend being the operative word). The highest score that has ever failed to advance from a semifinal is 197.025, an ignominious mark shared by Utah 2014 and Michigan 2015. That's not a particularly impressive score these days during the regular season, but 197 remains a thing at the national championship.
To some extent, we're in the dark about how scoring will play out in the semifinals because we're entering a whole new era. Starting this year, six judges will work each event beginning with the semifinals. Will that depress the scores? Possibly. That's two more whole people who have to be slipped a roll of cash under the bathroom door, which is a lot of work. I'm exhausted just thinking about it.
This was instituted in an attempt to prevent a heap of ties for event winners now that those titles will be decided on Friday as well, and in case you're wondering, it's terrible. Theoretically, having more judges and more oversight for scores at the most important meet is a great idea, but this is also going to result in a ton of really ugly-decimal scores that will be inconsistent with the round-number scores we've seen all season long. It's the most unappealing thing I've ever heard. I just want to buy a crate of apples and stab them all about it.
So...to the teams!
FLORIDA and LSU
Closer to nationals, I'll do a Super Six preview, which is ludicrous to do before we know who has qualified to Super Six but when has this blog ever been unludicrous? I'll save a more detailed discussion of Florida and LSU and how they match up against the other title contenders for that preview since they should both be in the mix. Of course, there's still the semifinal to get through, and counting a fall could ruin the year for any team at this point, but these two are the clear favorites to emerge from this semifinal. If either doesn't make it, it's an upset. For the rest of the teams in this group, it isn't.
Florida looked distinctly meh at regionals, and while that's a near-annual tradition that shouldn't necessarily indicate anything real, the score was a far-from-peak 196.725. I'm not expecting a 196.725 to make Super Six. By contrast, Florida also looked a little meh at regionals last year, but the score was still 197.475. Just a sliver of doubt begins to creep in, though I would be surprised by a repeat of those weak landings once we get to nationals. Another significant contributor to Florida's low score was the Kennedy Baker ankle situation. She landed short on her double pike on floor and was pulled from vault as a precaution, and with normal hits from her on those events, Florida is close to—if not at—197 already, even with the same blah landings. Baker is essential to Florida's title hopes, so the amount that ankle does/does not affect her will be a critical storyline on semifinal day.
LSU did not have the same issues as Florida at regionals, comfortably breaking 197 and sliding through to qualification without a question. Very reassuring. Except nothing is reassuring ever. Most doubts as to LSU's ability to fulfill expectations this year are based on traumatic flashbacks to last season, when the Tigers were in an essentially identical position and seemed a sure qualifier to Super Six until three falls on beam happened. It didn't come out of the blue last year. LSU had an iffy but manageable beam performance at regionals right before, which is why that 9.6 and 9.7 action from this year's regionals did not help alleviate any of those flashbacks.
Still, this is prognostication about the likelihood of counting falls, which is a fool's game, but that's what it would take to knock Florida or LSU out of this. Based on the quality of the gymnastics we've seen this season, both of these teams should be in the hit-and-advance category. Elimination with a hit meet would be a massive shock.
AUBURN v. GEORGIA v. STANFORD
Basically, I could copy-and-paste the "Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford" section from the regional previews here and just replace the word Michigan with Georgia. It would be upsettingly accurate and appropriate, hearkening back to some of my frustrations with the repetitiveness of the current postseason assignments. We more or less just did this, and if everything goes to plan, it will be these three teams facing off against each other, only now it's a fight for one spot instead of two. The comparison is particularly congruent because Michigan was thwarted by the beam at regionals, and Georgia is Georgia. Just swap one for the other.
As I said then, I still consider Stanford the challenger of the group rather than a likely qualifier because of those weaknesses on vault and floor. Everything worked out at regionals because bars and beam came through as they were supposed to and the other teams had errors, but at some point relying on just two events won't be enough. Still, if Stanford's first-place tie at regionals taught us anything, it's that this is more than possible. Georgia misses beam, Auburn repeats its uninspiring regionals performance, and hello Stanford once again.
As is only traditional, let's begin at the start. The first of the two semifinals will take place in the void between the dimensions on April 15th at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT and should be a doozy.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before floor)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[6] Auburn (vault)
[9] Georgia (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[18] Stanford (bars)
Competing individuals
All-around – Nicole Artz, Michigan; Alison Northey, Washington; Morgan Porter, Missouri; Sidney Dukes, Kentucky; Alex Hyland, Kentucky; Danielle Ramirez, Southern Utah
Vault – Meaghan Sievers, Iowa State
Beam – Lexi Mills, Arizona
Floor – Talia Chiarelli, Michigan; Brianna Tsang, Penn State; Lindsay Offutt, Pittsburgh
An argument can be made for five of these six teams advancing without having to concoct very many insane circumstances at all (sorry, Minnesota, but it would take a splatfest from the others). The big five should all expect to score into the 197s and will be disappointed by anything less than that. Even though we see 197s fall all over the place during the regular season, it's not a given that the challenging teams will reach that plateau in this meet as scores tend to tighten at nationals (tend being the operative word). The highest score that has ever failed to advance from a semifinal is 197.025, an ignominious mark shared by Utah 2014 and Michigan 2015. That's not a particularly impressive score these days during the regular season, but 197 remains a thing at the national championship.
To some extent, we're in the dark about how scoring will play out in the semifinals because we're entering a whole new era. Starting this year, six judges will work each event beginning with the semifinals. Will that depress the scores? Possibly. That's two more whole people who have to be slipped a roll of cash under the bathroom door, which is a lot of work. I'm exhausted just thinking about it.
This was instituted in an attempt to prevent a heap of ties for event winners now that those titles will be decided on Friday as well, and in case you're wondering, it's terrible. Theoretically, having more judges and more oversight for scores at the most important meet is a great idea, but this is also going to result in a ton of really ugly-decimal scores that will be inconsistent with the round-number scores we've seen all season long. It's the most unappealing thing I've ever heard. I just want to buy a crate of apples and stab them all about it.
So...to the teams!
FLORIDA and LSU
Closer to nationals, I'll do a Super Six preview, which is ludicrous to do before we know who has qualified to Super Six but when has this blog ever been unludicrous? I'll save a more detailed discussion of Florida and LSU and how they match up against the other title contenders for that preview since they should both be in the mix. Of course, there's still the semifinal to get through, and counting a fall could ruin the year for any team at this point, but these two are the clear favorites to emerge from this semifinal. If either doesn't make it, it's an upset. For the rest of the teams in this group, it isn't.
Florida looked distinctly meh at regionals, and while that's a near-annual tradition that shouldn't necessarily indicate anything real, the score was a far-from-peak 196.725. I'm not expecting a 196.725 to make Super Six. By contrast, Florida also looked a little meh at regionals last year, but the score was still 197.475. Just a sliver of doubt begins to creep in, though I would be surprised by a repeat of those weak landings once we get to nationals. Another significant contributor to Florida's low score was the Kennedy Baker ankle situation. She landed short on her double pike on floor and was pulled from vault as a precaution, and with normal hits from her on those events, Florida is close to—if not at—197 already, even with the same blah landings. Baker is essential to Florida's title hopes, so the amount that ankle does/does not affect her will be a critical storyline on semifinal day.
LSU did not have the same issues as Florida at regionals, comfortably breaking 197 and sliding through to qualification without a question. Very reassuring. Except nothing is reassuring ever. Most doubts as to LSU's ability to fulfill expectations this year are based on traumatic flashbacks to last season, when the Tigers were in an essentially identical position and seemed a sure qualifier to Super Six until three falls on beam happened. It didn't come out of the blue last year. LSU had an iffy but manageable beam performance at regionals right before, which is why that 9.6 and 9.7 action from this year's regionals did not help alleviate any of those flashbacks.
Still, this is prognostication about the likelihood of counting falls, which is a fool's game, but that's what it would take to knock Florida or LSU out of this. Based on the quality of the gymnastics we've seen this season, both of these teams should be in the hit-and-advance category. Elimination with a hit meet would be a massive shock.
AUBURN v. GEORGIA v. STANFORD
Basically, I could copy-and-paste the "Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford" section from the regional previews here and just replace the word Michigan with Georgia. It would be upsettingly accurate and appropriate, hearkening back to some of my frustrations with the repetitiveness of the current postseason assignments. We more or less just did this, and if everything goes to plan, it will be these three teams facing off against each other, only now it's a fight for one spot instead of two. The comparison is particularly congruent because Michigan was thwarted by the beam at regionals, and Georgia is Georgia. Just swap one for the other.
As I said then, I still consider Stanford the challenger of the group rather than a likely qualifier because of those weaknesses on vault and floor. Everything worked out at regionals because bars and beam came through as they were supposed to and the other teams had errors, but at some point relying on just two events won't be enough. Still, if Stanford's first-place tie at regionals taught us anything, it's that this is more than possible. Georgia misses beam, Auburn repeats its uninspiring regionals performance, and hello Stanford once again.
March 31, 2016
Michigan Regional Preview
Here it is. The big one. Are you excited? I'm excited. Ever since it became clear that Stanford's ranking would not emerge from the pitiful category before the end of the season, we've all been waiting to see which of the poor souls that bothered to get good scores all year long would suffer the punishment of being placed with Stanford. The winners are Auburn and Michigan. It's funny because the 6-7-18 regional is usually the boring one, the one where the top two teams have more than a fall of margin over anyone else, but this year, it's the one everyone is anticipating the most. Yes, I just decided which regional you're anticipating the most. It's this. The end.
Of course, that means it will end up being super boring. Without a doubt. It always happens. All of the other regionals will be intensely close throughout, and then this one will be decided in the first rotation. You know it.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Auburn (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (beam)
[18] Stanford (floor)
[24] Eastern Michigan (bye before floor)
[25] Penn State (bars)
[33] New Hampshire (vault)
Competing individuals
Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt – AA; Tracey Pearson – AA; Miya Dotson – UB)
Rutgers (Libby Groden – AA; Nicolette Wilson – VT; Michelle Amoresano – VT)
Bridgeport (Brianna Comport – BB, FX; Christine Liautaud – UB; Randi Cutolo – FX)
West Chester (Majesta Valentine – AA)
Cornell (Kaitlin Green – BB)
The fight – Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford
No favorites here. There can't be because someone very capable of a 197 will miss out on nationals, and any one of these three teams could be eliminated even with a hit meet.
Still, Stanford must be considered the challenger to the throne rather than the reigning monarch because of a few more clear weaknesses than the others and the lack of consistently competitive scores during the season. In spite of Stanford's definite potential to hit 197 and reputation for suddenly turning great once the elimination meets roll around, there's a reason Stanford is 18th and not 6th or 7th. The scores haven't been there the way they have for Auburn and Michigan, and Stanford really will have to put together a season-best performance to make it out of this competition. Normal won't be good enough. It has to be a Price/Hong 9.950, Rice/McNair 9.850 kind of day to pull out the 197+ score it will take to advance.
Auburn and Michigan are separated by essentially nothing. Auburn is a wisp ahead of Michigan in overall RQS, while Michigan is a wisp ahead of Auburn on each specific-event RQS. That indicates that Michigan has slightly higher peaks on each event but that Auburn has put it all together in the same meet slightly more often. It's all slight. The advantage of being at home may tip the balance to Michigan, which is why (in addition to Michigan's season high being the best in the competition) I see Auburn as more vulnerable than Michigan if both hit their meets. Really, there should only be a tenth or two between them either way.
Ergo...landings, landings, landings. On vault, for instance, Michigan has more difficulty, and the Olivia Karas grand finale has scored higher than the Caitlin Atkinson grand finale, but we have seen multiple meets this year in which Auburn has earned a very competitive vault score because of high-level landing control. Since Michigan's peak scoring potential has been higher this year, those landings are all the more important for Auburn to close any scoring potential gap.
For both teams, the vulnerability is beam. In fact, it has been a vulnerability for Stanford at times as this year well (but will be absolutely critical if Stanford is to stay in this), all of which is made evident by New Hampshire being ranked as the #2 beam team in this regional. Each of these top seeds has the potential for multiple 9.9s. Atkinson, Milliet, Demers, Artz, Chiarelli, Price, Hong. There's no shortage of impressive beamers in this meet, but Auburn has a tendency to throw a 9.7 or two out there early in the lineup, and Michigan has been a sudden fall-fest in the second half of the season. Beam will be the most telling indicator about whether Stanford is in this meet because secure hits from both Michigan and Auburn (in rotations one and three) would take away the primary area in which Stanford is looking to pick up tenths (in rotation five).
Of course, that means it will end up being super boring. Without a doubt. It always happens. All of the other regionals will be intensely close throughout, and then this one will be decided in the first rotation. You know it.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Auburn (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (beam)
[18] Stanford (floor)
[24] Eastern Michigan (bye before floor)
[25] Penn State (bars)
[33] New Hampshire (vault)
Competing individuals
Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt – AA; Tracey Pearson – AA; Miya Dotson – UB)
Rutgers (Libby Groden – AA; Nicolette Wilson – VT; Michelle Amoresano – VT)
Bridgeport (Brianna Comport – BB, FX; Christine Liautaud – UB; Randi Cutolo – FX)
West Chester (Majesta Valentine – AA)
Cornell (Kaitlin Green – BB)
The fight – Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford
No favorites here. There can't be because someone very capable of a 197 will miss out on nationals, and any one of these three teams could be eliminated even with a hit meet.
Still, Stanford must be considered the challenger to the throne rather than the reigning monarch because of a few more clear weaknesses than the others and the lack of consistently competitive scores during the season. In spite of Stanford's definite potential to hit 197 and reputation for suddenly turning great once the elimination meets roll around, there's a reason Stanford is 18th and not 6th or 7th. The scores haven't been there the way they have for Auburn and Michigan, and Stanford really will have to put together a season-best performance to make it out of this competition. Normal won't be good enough. It has to be a Price/Hong 9.950, Rice/McNair 9.850 kind of day to pull out the 197+ score it will take to advance.
Auburn and Michigan are separated by essentially nothing. Auburn is a wisp ahead of Michigan in overall RQS, while Michigan is a wisp ahead of Auburn on each specific-event RQS. That indicates that Michigan has slightly higher peaks on each event but that Auburn has put it all together in the same meet slightly more often. It's all slight. The advantage of being at home may tip the balance to Michigan, which is why (in addition to Michigan's season high being the best in the competition) I see Auburn as more vulnerable than Michigan if both hit their meets. Really, there should only be a tenth or two between them either way.
Ergo...landings, landings, landings. On vault, for instance, Michigan has more difficulty, and the Olivia Karas grand finale has scored higher than the Caitlin Atkinson grand finale, but we have seen multiple meets this year in which Auburn has earned a very competitive vault score because of high-level landing control. Since Michigan's peak scoring potential has been higher this year, those landings are all the more important for Auburn to close any scoring potential gap.
For both teams, the vulnerability is beam. In fact, it has been a vulnerability for Stanford at times as this year well (but will be absolutely critical if Stanford is to stay in this), all of which is made evident by New Hampshire being ranked as the #2 beam team in this regional. Each of these top seeds has the potential for multiple 9.9s. Atkinson, Milliet, Demers, Artz, Chiarelli, Price, Hong. There's no shortage of impressive beamers in this meet, but Auburn has a tendency to throw a 9.7 or two out there early in the lineup, and Michigan has been a sudden fall-fest in the second half of the season. Beam will be the most telling indicator about whether Stanford is in this meet because secure hits from both Michigan and Auburn (in rotations one and three) would take away the primary area in which Stanford is looking to pick up tenths (in rotation five).
March 17, 2016
Pac-12 Championship Preview
Saturday 3/19
Afternoon session 4:00 ET/1:00 PT
Evening session 9:00 ET/6:00 PT
The Pac-12 should take pride this season in winning the award for the weirdest conference championship scenario. Stanford is the #6 seed and competing in the "who even are you?" afternoon relegation session in spite of being quite a realistic title contender and possible winner, which if nothing else, will serve to make sure we all pay more attention to the afternoon session instead of getting distracted by the simultaneous Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC action. Fun fact: there will be at least 30 minutes during which all four of those championships are going on at the same time. Well, we've had a good life.
Stanford's last meet featured a relative crushing of Georgia and UCLA, so if that's any indication, Stanford is currently in the midst of pulling a Stanford once again this year. But, let's begin with the ones who were good all season long and qualified for the coveted evening session.
EVENING SESSION
Utah, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State
Once again, Utah has earned the top seed in the conference on the back of resolutely having the fewest meltdowns. Hooray! Seven straight weeks of 197s coupled with breaking the 197.5 barrier in the last two outings has given the Utes a fairly comfortable ranking lead over the remaining Pac-12 teams, meaning they'll be favorites heading in. Given what UCLA and Stanford can do, however, there shouldn't more than a few tenths in this either way with hit meets all around (ahahahahahaha), so we have at least some reason to hope for excitement. UCLA is capable of busting out a massive day, and after Stanford goes, we'll have the benefit of a legitimate pace standard through which to gauge Utah and UCLA's performances. So, let's break this thing down.
Rotation 1: UCLA vault, Cal bars, Utah beam, Oregon State floor
Event RQS for rotation 1:
Utah 49.290
UCLA 49.165
Oregon State 49.165
Cal 49.110
Of course UCLA is the team that drew its arch-nemesis, Olympic order, meaning the Bruins already have a four-tenth deficit, and the competition is two days away. It actually is probably beneficial to the Bruins as they make their money on beam and floor and would rather end there than begin there, hoping to squeeze out some home-meet level scoring as Cipra and Bynum on floor will be the last routines of the competition, at the end of a long day, once the judges are already halfway through the whiskey bottle. I know. That's not right of me to say. They'll obviously have finished the whiskey by that point and be on to the cooking sherry and rubbing alcohol.
As for vault, UCLA has lacked the required landing control and difficulty (having to rely on Bynum's arabian and Pua's roller coaster 1.5), often bouncing back on fulls and hoping to get a 9.825 out of them. The sticking shoes showed up just once a couple weeks ago to earn UCLA a 49.375, but more often the score has been about 49.1. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but the Bruins will hope to go over 49.2 to keep pace early. None of the teams are starting on particularly strong events, so don't expect anyone to run away with this thing at the beginning.
Utah's beam will be among the key rotations to keep every eye on because of Stover Watch 2016. She may be able to compete beam at Pac-12s after all, and if she's back in form, that bolsters Utah's scoring potential by a solid tenth, maybe more, and seriously reduces the Fall Terror Index. It was rising considerably depending on who was going to have to come into the lineup. Utah has had its share of falls this season, but this isn't among the most terrifying beam lineups in the conference. Lopez is currently doing the best beam work of her career, and if Utah can get at least 9.875s from her, Rowe, and Stover (?), along with two other hits, breaking into 49.300+ range seems doable, at least depending on how some of those early-lineup short splits are being evaluated. If the Utes emerge from beam in the first rotation with a true lead, that significantly fuels their chances because they'll be heading off to higher-scoring, lower-risk events from here. If it's 49.1 or lower, ring all the bells because it's feeding time for the vultures.
Afternoon session 4:00 ET/1:00 PT
Evening session 9:00 ET/6:00 PT
The Pac-12 should take pride this season in winning the award for the weirdest conference championship scenario. Stanford is the #6 seed and competing in the "who even are you?" afternoon relegation session in spite of being quite a realistic title contender and possible winner, which if nothing else, will serve to make sure we all pay more attention to the afternoon session instead of getting distracted by the simultaneous Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC action. Fun fact: there will be at least 30 minutes during which all four of those championships are going on at the same time. Well, we've had a good life.
Stanford's last meet featured a relative crushing of Georgia and UCLA, so if that's any indication, Stanford is currently in the midst of pulling a Stanford once again this year. But, let's begin with the ones who were good all season long and qualified for the coveted evening session.
EVENING SESSION
Utah, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State
Once again, Utah has earned the top seed in the conference on the back of resolutely having the fewest meltdowns. Hooray! Seven straight weeks of 197s coupled with breaking the 197.5 barrier in the last two outings has given the Utes a fairly comfortable ranking lead over the remaining Pac-12 teams, meaning they'll be favorites heading in. Given what UCLA and Stanford can do, however, there shouldn't more than a few tenths in this either way with hit meets all around (ahahahahahaha), so we have at least some reason to hope for excitement. UCLA is capable of busting out a massive day, and after Stanford goes, we'll have the benefit of a legitimate pace standard through which to gauge Utah and UCLA's performances. So, let's break this thing down.
Rotation 1: UCLA vault, Cal bars, Utah beam, Oregon State floor
Event RQS for rotation 1:
Utah 49.290
UCLA 49.165
Oregon State 49.165
Cal 49.110
Of course UCLA is the team that drew its arch-nemesis, Olympic order, meaning the Bruins already have a four-tenth deficit, and the competition is two days away. It actually is probably beneficial to the Bruins as they make their money on beam and floor and would rather end there than begin there, hoping to squeeze out some home-meet level scoring as Cipra and Bynum on floor will be the last routines of the competition, at the end of a long day, once the judges are already halfway through the whiskey bottle. I know. That's not right of me to say. They'll obviously have finished the whiskey by that point and be on to the cooking sherry and rubbing alcohol.
As for vault, UCLA has lacked the required landing control and difficulty (having to rely on Bynum's arabian and Pua's roller coaster 1.5), often bouncing back on fulls and hoping to get a 9.825 out of them. The sticking shoes showed up just once a couple weeks ago to earn UCLA a 49.375, but more often the score has been about 49.1. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but the Bruins will hope to go over 49.2 to keep pace early. None of the teams are starting on particularly strong events, so don't expect anyone to run away with this thing at the beginning.
Utah's beam will be among the key rotations to keep every eye on because of Stover Watch 2016. She may be able to compete beam at Pac-12s after all, and if she's back in form, that bolsters Utah's scoring potential by a solid tenth, maybe more, and seriously reduces the Fall Terror Index. It was rising considerably depending on who was going to have to come into the lineup. Utah has had its share of falls this season, but this isn't among the most terrifying beam lineups in the conference. Lopez is currently doing the best beam work of her career, and if Utah can get at least 9.875s from her, Rowe, and Stover (?), along with two other hits, breaking into 49.300+ range seems doable, at least depending on how some of those early-lineup short splits are being evaluated. If the Utes emerge from beam in the first rotation with a true lead, that significantly fuels their chances because they'll be heading off to higher-scoring, lower-risk events from here. If it's 49.1 or lower, ring all the bells because it's feeding time for the vultures.
March 7, 2016
Week 9 Rankings + RQS Update
One more week of regular, normal, average action, then it's on to the conference championships, and then after that, it starts being actually important to do well. So close! With some schools taking byes this coming weekend like lazy garbage teams, we now know a few maximum RQS totals, so we can see exactly how high those teams will be able to rise. Or not rise.
The most critical ranking development came from the significant scores posted by Stanford and Nebraska on Sunday, rendering things somewhat less precarious for both teams. And more precarious for everyone else because now Nebraska and Stanford have proven 197 potential and are going to make some unlucky team very disappointed some day. No one wants a 197ing #3 seed. The problem for them is that Denver and Arkansas have also proven to be 197 teams, making it harder to move up into cozier, higher penthouse floors.
The Race for the Evening Session at SECs is also winding down, with Georgia currently on the outside looking in and trying to snatch Auburn at the last second. Oregon State also currently sits in 5th in the Pac-12, but Washington is the host of the championships this year, so this may get a little wonky. When Cal hosted two years ago, the home team's session was the evening one, even though Cal was in the B group. It didn't go well, but do we know if they've received the memo on that or if it will be more of the same? The Big Ten does things a little differently, putting six teams in the second session, with placement decided by the results at the Big Five meets this coming weekend.
In scoring news, it's March. That's all you need to know. The judges felt like they had permission to start throwing out the 10s like candy again, to least to everyone who isn't named Elizabeth Price. Sloan got another beam 10, Gnat got another floor 10, and McGee also got another floor 10, all gymnasts who have already received 10s on those events this season. Then in UCLA's own SEC-themed carnival of insane scores, Danusia got her first beam 10 for a couple years, and Brittany Rogers got her first 10 ever, just not on the event where she was supposed to get it.
As usually happens in meets like those, the craziest scores weren't the 10s but unjustified 9.925s and 9.950s that pushed the totals up and made the 10s almost necessary. That's why it was so funny that Price didn't get a 10 from both judges this particular bars routine. (I'm not as worked up about vault because it was not a true stick, in spite of doing the DTY. You can't decide not to see it simply because of difficulty, as many times as we've seen that happen. )
Sure, Price has done this identical bars routine four or five times and never received 10.000 for it, but this time is somewhat different because it's not like the judges were keeping themselves clothed and professional, even the particular bars judge who went 9.950 (and who also gave Sophina 9.900 for one of her Evel Knievel dismounts). They were throwing panties on every event for all the teams, and then...
9.975. OK? You're choosing now to have scruples?
Anyway, to the rankings! I'm taking the rankings down much lower this week for a look at who is in regionals contention and how close the race is. (It's close.)
Week 9 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.765
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.900
Road/Home Score 3: 197.775
Oklahoma keeps putting away 197 after 197 and remains safe at #1 until at least the conference championships. It's hard to pick at a team with these scores because while there are momentary issues like weaker vault landings over the weekend, Oklahoma is hitting us in the face with solid gymnastics week after week. The real question I have is, interestingly, about the beam lineup. Now, it's interesting in part because I always pretend to have a question about the beam lineup and then it always ends up being better than fine in the postseason because it's Oklahoma and beam. But then again, I look at Kmieciak, Lehrmann, Catour, Brown, Jones, and Capps (the recent six) and I think...is this really the team's best beam lineup?
2. Florida 197.580
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.525
Road Score 3: 197.075
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.875
Road/Home Score 3: 197.675
Florida gained some ground on Oklahoma this week after a crucially large road total, but it's a bit of a treadmill process when Oklahoma keeps getting just as massive or more massive scores. The Gators compete at home next weekend for senior night and will host the annual 198 party, so they cannot drop that low road score and catch Oklahoma quite yet. The real question this week is how much of a 40 Bridget Sloan is going to have on Senior Night. I mean the score. 40.000. I'm talking about gymnastics.
The #2 ranking is safe for now, and much of the potential to challenge for #1 will come down to what Florida can do at SECs to get rid of that peasant 197.075.
Fun fact: Florida has hit all six beam routines just once since January and hasn't had all beam scores reach 9.8 since January 15th. The balance beam situation vulture eyes are on all over the place this week.
3. LSU – 197.340
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.900
Road Score 2: 196.800
Road Score 3: 196.750
Road/Home Score 1: 197.925
Road/Home Score 2: 197.825
Road/Home Score 3: 197.425
The Tigers recorded a season high and used it to pass Alabama into 3rd, which is quite a solid ranking for a team that spent so much of the early half of the season significantly under-ranked. I see no reason to expect LSU's RQS ascent to stop considering that those two non-bold road scores are pretty pedestrian by LSU standards and would constitute a weak meet at this point in the year. Florida is unreachable until SECs, but there will be an opening at that point if LSU records a couple more big 197s. Traveling to TWU and then to SECs, it seems realistic.
4. Alabama – 197.325
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.550
Road/Home Score 2: 197.375
Road/Home Score 3: 197.175
Maximum RQS: 197.400
That 196.200 disaster against LSU was not a good note on which to leave the regular season, but with no meet next weekend, Alabama will have to live with annihilating my fantasy team and heading into SECs with the poor taste of sub-49 scores on bars and beam still lingering. The bars problem shouldn't really be repeated, although Jetter's double front is always a case of pass-the-stabbing-knife, but beam has been a case of the beautiful disasters this year, especially disastrous when some of the beautifuls aren't competing. Winston only did one event over the weekend. What even was that?
Because LSU looks very likely to increase its RQS and Alabama is capped at 197.400, it looks like the remaining score will be more about fending off the others.
The most critical ranking development came from the significant scores posted by Stanford and Nebraska on Sunday, rendering things somewhat less precarious for both teams. And more precarious for everyone else because now Nebraska and Stanford have proven 197 potential and are going to make some unlucky team very disappointed some day. No one wants a 197ing #3 seed. The problem for them is that Denver and Arkansas have also proven to be 197 teams, making it harder to move up into cozier, higher penthouse floors.
The Race for the Evening Session at SECs is also winding down, with Georgia currently on the outside looking in and trying to snatch Auburn at the last second. Oregon State also currently sits in 5th in the Pac-12, but Washington is the host of the championships this year, so this may get a little wonky. When Cal hosted two years ago, the home team's session was the evening one, even though Cal was in the B group. It didn't go well, but do we know if they've received the memo on that or if it will be more of the same? The Big Ten does things a little differently, putting six teams in the second session, with placement decided by the results at the Big Five meets this coming weekend.
In scoring news, it's March. That's all you need to know. The judges felt like they had permission to start throwing out the 10s like candy again, to least to everyone who isn't named Elizabeth Price. Sloan got another beam 10, Gnat got another floor 10, and McGee also got another floor 10, all gymnasts who have already received 10s on those events this season. Then in UCLA's own SEC-themed carnival of insane scores, Danusia got her first beam 10 for a couple years, and Brittany Rogers got her first 10 ever, just not on the event where she was supposed to get it.
As usually happens in meets like those, the craziest scores weren't the 10s but unjustified 9.925s and 9.950s that pushed the totals up and made the 10s almost necessary. That's why it was so funny that Price didn't get a 10 from both judges this particular bars routine. (I'm not as worked up about vault because it was not a true stick, in spite of doing the DTY. You can't decide not to see it simply because of difficulty, as many times as we've seen that happen. )
Sure, Price has done this identical bars routine four or five times and never received 10.000 for it, but this time is somewhat different because it's not like the judges were keeping themselves clothed and professional, even the particular bars judge who went 9.950 (and who also gave Sophina 9.900 for one of her Evel Knievel dismounts). They were throwing panties on every event for all the teams, and then...
9.975. OK? You're choosing now to have scruples?
Anyway, to the rankings! I'm taking the rankings down much lower this week for a look at who is in regionals contention and how close the race is. (It's close.)
Week 9 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.765
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.900
Road/Home Score 3: 197.775
Oklahoma keeps putting away 197 after 197 and remains safe at #1 until at least the conference championships. It's hard to pick at a team with these scores because while there are momentary issues like weaker vault landings over the weekend, Oklahoma is hitting us in the face with solid gymnastics week after week. The real question I have is, interestingly, about the beam lineup. Now, it's interesting in part because I always pretend to have a question about the beam lineup and then it always ends up being better than fine in the postseason because it's Oklahoma and beam. But then again, I look at Kmieciak, Lehrmann, Catour, Brown, Jones, and Capps (the recent six) and I think...is this really the team's best beam lineup?
2. Florida 197.580
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.525
Road Score 3: 197.075
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.875
Road/Home Score 3: 197.675
Florida gained some ground on Oklahoma this week after a crucially large road total, but it's a bit of a treadmill process when Oklahoma keeps getting just as massive or more massive scores. The Gators compete at home next weekend for senior night and will host the annual 198 party, so they cannot drop that low road score and catch Oklahoma quite yet. The real question this week is how much of a 40 Bridget Sloan is going to have on Senior Night. I mean the score. 40.000. I'm talking about gymnastics.
The #2 ranking is safe for now, and much of the potential to challenge for #1 will come down to what Florida can do at SECs to get rid of that peasant 197.075.
Fun fact: Florida has hit all six beam routines just once since January and hasn't had all beam scores reach 9.8 since January 15th. The balance beam situation vulture eyes are on all over the place this week.
3. LSU – 197.340
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.900
Road Score 2: 196.800
Road Score 3: 196.750
Road/Home Score 1: 197.925
Road/Home Score 2: 197.825
Road/Home Score 3: 197.425
The Tigers recorded a season high and used it to pass Alabama into 3rd, which is quite a solid ranking for a team that spent so much of the early half of the season significantly under-ranked. I see no reason to expect LSU's RQS ascent to stop considering that those two non-bold road scores are pretty pedestrian by LSU standards and would constitute a weak meet at this point in the year. Florida is unreachable until SECs, but there will be an opening at that point if LSU records a couple more big 197s. Traveling to TWU and then to SECs, it seems realistic.
4. Alabama – 197.325
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.550
Road/Home Score 2: 197.375
Road/Home Score 3: 197.175
Maximum RQS: 197.400
That 196.200 disaster against LSU was not a good note on which to leave the regular season, but with no meet next weekend, Alabama will have to live with annihilating my fantasy team and heading into SECs with the poor taste of sub-49 scores on bars and beam still lingering. The bars problem shouldn't really be repeated, although Jetter's double front is always a case of pass-the-stabbing-knife, but beam has been a case of the beautiful disasters this year, especially disastrous when some of the beautifuls aren't competing. Winston only did one event over the weekend. What even was that?
Because LSU looks very likely to increase its RQS and Alabama is capped at 197.400, it looks like the remaining score will be more about fending off the others.
March 6, 2016
Sunday Live Blog – UCLA, Georgia, Stanford, Heart Medicine
Sunday, March 6
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – George Washington, Pittsburgh, Texas
Woman’s, Yale @ Maryland - SCORES - BTNPlus($)
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Utah State @ Nebraska - SCORES
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Minnesota, Denver @ Air Force - Stream
These are the current live rankings heading into today's action, emphasizing the urgency to get a useful score for a number of the teams competing this afternoon. I've been obsessing over the potential regional excitement that will come from having some of these schools as #3 seeds, without taking too seriously the possibility that they could end up out of the top 18 and out of the seeded schools altogether. Without a meet next weekend, Stanford's situation is particularly urgent. Utah would also prefer Stanford get a big score, like now, because if Stanford does have to be "regionally allocated," then Utah's regional is by far the closest geographically.
Nebraska's RQS is being held down by a low road score, so we won't really know where the Huskers stand until after next weekend's meet at Ohio State.
March 3, 2016
The Weekend Plans – March 4-6
Two weeks of normal competition until the conference championships. Two. The ranking and RQS situations are currently urgent, verging on EEEEEE, for more than a few teams. Plus, we have the elite world barging in this weekend. If you plan on doing things this weekend that aren't watching gymnastics while making vaguely snarky yet harmless observations, we're not friends.
Top 25 schedule
Live blogging
Whew. We've got a Friday in front of us during which every little thing on Earth will happen. All the top 10 teams except UCLA (always gotta be different...) have overlapping meets on Friday, which is either exciting or really poorly planned. Get all 20 of your screens ready. That doesn't even count Nastia's Athletic Cup, which I probably won't blog since so much NCAA action will be happening simultaneously, but I'm sure others will be all up in that business. Pink things. I already blogged it. I usually end up watching it in about October, when all the competitors are starting NCAA and I need to remember who they are.
Utah/Michigan will be broadcast on tape delay on BTN, four hours after the actual meet, which normally would be annoying but in this case may be some built-in prioritization and scheduling. This weekend is a women's basketball whatever, so there will be far fewer live TV meets than usual. It's an internet weekend. Or as I call it, a weekend.
The big deal on Saturday is American Cup. I'll be tweeting. Obviously. Then back to blogging on Sunday for the Georgia/Stanford/UCLA threeway.
Rankings
We have a theoretical chance for movement at the top of the rankings, but just theoretical. Florida would need to score a 198.175 away at Kentucky AND Oklahoma would need to score 197.475 or lower at home against Arizona for Florida to take over the top ranking spot. Both teams are safe at 1-2 even if they do end up flip-flopping.
We could see some spot exchanges as we go down the top 10, with Utah and Michigan meeting on Friday with the higher ranking on the line and Auburn preparing to drop a fairly low road score and looking to leapfrog UCLA. #10 Georgia has the most to gain/lose this weekend with two meets, the Sunday meet away at UCLA being significantly more important. Georgia is still counting a 195.675 road score right now, and with even just a normal meet and a hit beam in both of the weekend's endeavors, the Gymdogs will expect to zoom up, potentially as high as 7th, though a lot would need to go their way with the other teams for that actually to happen.
That UCLA Sunday meet is the most critical ranking meet of the weekend since it will also determine Stanford's ceiling and decide whether the Cardinal are in the running for a #2 regionals seed. With a mid-196, Stanford is right in it, but with another 195, it will be exceedingly unlikely if not impossible.
Eyes on Denver as well, coming off that 197.5 and with two meets this weekend, one at home and one at almost-home against Air Force. I would honestly not be bowled over to see Denver knocking into the top 10 at the end of the weekend if Arkansas and Georgia don't perform.
Iowa is also looking to drop a 194.900 this weekend in a big rivalry meet against Iowa State and could move as high as #12 if things fall just right. Fall being the operative word.
Top 25 schedule
Friday, March 4
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [2] Florida @ [23] Kentucky
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [6] Utah @ [5] Michigan
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [8] Auburn @ [10] Georgia
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – NC State @ [21] George Washington
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [24] Eastern Michigan @ Kent State
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Nastia Liukin Nastiathon for the Nastia Cup
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [17] Iowa @ Iowa State
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [17] Iowa @ Iowa State
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [18] Arizona @ [1] Oklahoma
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [9] Arkansas @ [14] Missouri
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [3] Alabama @ [4] LSU
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [19] Minnesota, Air Force @ [13] Denver
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Ball State, Seattle Pacific @ [20] Oregon State
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Southern Utah, Michigan State, Lindenwood @ [12] Cal
Saturday, March 5
11:30 ET/8:30 PT – AT&T Cupful of Americans
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Northern Illinois, Illinois State, Illinois-Chicago @ [22] Illinois
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Like a Men's Thing? With John Orozco?
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Like a Men's Thing? With John Orozco?
Sunday, March 6
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Ohio State, Bowling Green @ [25] West Virginia
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [21] George Washington, Pittsburgh, Texas Woman’s, Yale @ Maryland
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [10] Georgia, [16] Stanford @ [7] UCLA
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Utah State @ [15] Nebraska
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Utah State @ [15] Nebraska
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [13] Denver, [19] Minnesota @ Air Force
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Michigan State @ [11] Boise State
Live blogging
Whew. We've got a Friday in front of us during which every little thing on Earth will happen. All the top 10 teams except UCLA (always gotta be different...) have overlapping meets on Friday, which is either exciting or really poorly planned. Get all 20 of your screens ready. That doesn't even count Nastia's Athletic Cup, which I probably won't blog since so much NCAA action will be happening simultaneously, but I'm sure others will be all up in that business. Pink things. I already blogged it. I usually end up watching it in about October, when all the competitors are starting NCAA and I need to remember who they are.
Utah/Michigan will be broadcast on tape delay on BTN, four hours after the actual meet, which normally would be annoying but in this case may be some built-in prioritization and scheduling. This weekend is a women's basketball whatever, so there will be far fewer live TV meets than usual. It's an internet weekend. Or as I call it, a weekend.
The big deal on Saturday is American Cup. I'll be tweeting. Obviously. Then back to blogging on Sunday for the Georgia/Stanford/UCLA threeway.
Rankings
We have a theoretical chance for movement at the top of the rankings, but just theoretical. Florida would need to score a 198.175 away at Kentucky AND Oklahoma would need to score 197.475 or lower at home against Arizona for Florida to take over the top ranking spot. Both teams are safe at 1-2 even if they do end up flip-flopping.
We could see some spot exchanges as we go down the top 10, with Utah and Michigan meeting on Friday with the higher ranking on the line and Auburn preparing to drop a fairly low road score and looking to leapfrog UCLA. #10 Georgia has the most to gain/lose this weekend with two meets, the Sunday meet away at UCLA being significantly more important. Georgia is still counting a 195.675 road score right now, and with even just a normal meet and a hit beam in both of the weekend's endeavors, the Gymdogs will expect to zoom up, potentially as high as 7th, though a lot would need to go their way with the other teams for that actually to happen.
That UCLA Sunday meet is the most critical ranking meet of the weekend since it will also determine Stanford's ceiling and decide whether the Cardinal are in the running for a #2 regionals seed. With a mid-196, Stanford is right in it, but with another 195, it will be exceedingly unlikely if not impossible.
Eyes on Denver as well, coming off that 197.5 and with two meets this weekend, one at home and one at almost-home against Air Force. I would honestly not be bowled over to see Denver knocking into the top 10 at the end of the weekend if Arkansas and Georgia don't perform.
Iowa is also looking to drop a 194.900 this weekend in a big rivalry meet against Iowa State and could move as high as #12 if things fall just right. Fall being the operative word.
February 22, 2016
Week 7 Rankings + RQS Update
RQS has officially taken over, which means the rankings look quite different than they did last week when they were based on average, but not too different from what we saw in last week's RQS primer. Florida got a vital away score, LSU is ranked artificially low because of a nasty away score that's still hanging around, and a number of teams bumped up their RQS totals by dropping ugly scores yet didn't quite get the boost they would have hoped. Enjoy!
Also, I go on a little mid-ranking rant about hypersensitivity! So that's fun. Enjoy turning on me.
Ashleigh Gnat got a 10 on floor this week, adding to her nation-leading total of three. Other than that, it was once again a week of 9.975s, with Winston and Brannan going back-to-back for Alabama on bars, Sloan getting one on floor, and Stover reaching the mark on beam. Among others?
Also, Kyla retired from elite today. So that's suddenly big news. I should probably have something to say about that. It sounds like the smart decision since Rio was looking less and less and less likely with the passing months. Now, she'll avoid putting her body through the ringer of a Trials process and heal up as much as possible for a UCLA team that desperately needs someone without a case of elite-injured-forever.
Week 7 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.595
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 197.900
Road/Home Score 2: 197.475
Road/Home Score 3: 197.375
The Sooners scores a relatively paltry 197.375 at Georgia over the weekend. Slackers. That counts as bad for Oklahoma, a result of a couple missed vault landings and suddenly strictly judged floor routines. You can certainly justify the scores that were given to those floor performances, but the argument that those scores were out of step with the rest of the meet and the general looseness of floor scoring this season is a valid one. The consequence of that garbage shame of a 197.375 is that what used to be a nearly 0.500 RQS advantage over Florida has shrunk to just about 0.250. It's still comfortable, but no longer dominant, and Florida will view the #1 ranking as much more attainable now.
2. Florida – 197.355
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.825
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.675
Road/Home Score 3: 197.450
Much of last week, I spoke about how important it was for Florida to get a huge away score over the weekend to close that gap with Oklahoma, and that's exactly what Florida did. Now, we'll all just acknowledge the fact that Bridget Sloan had two landing hops on floor and the judges just threw roses at her and shouted, "Encore! Bravissima!" instead of taking deductions, and the questions about Florida's ability to keep pace on floor remain. Still, 197.750. No slouch of a score. Mission #1 accomplished, but Florida will still need to replicate that performance in the two remaining road meets in order to have a shot at #1 and drop the distinctly un-Florida score still in the RQS picture.
3. Alabama – 197.195
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.175
Road/Home Score 3: 196.875
Alabama had an RQS lead on Florida going into the week and had a real shot at #2 but was not able to gain as much after getting stuck on the 9.850s for three events, though a huge bars score lifted the total up to 197.300, a respectable enough total and one that keeps Alabama squarely in the hunt for a finish somewhere 3-5. Counting two 197.3s, however, will make it harder to move up any higher than 3rd given what Oklahoma and Florida are counting so far. Right now, I would classify Alabama as the deepest team in NCAA, but the difference between qualifying to Super Six and challenging for the title will be decided by whether this is just a team with a billion 9.850 options or a team with a billion 9.850 options, from which emerge 12+ 9.9 options.
4. Michigan – 196.920
RQS:
Road Score 1: 196.975
Road Score 2: 196.900
Road Score 3: 196.550
Road/Home Score 1: 197.425
Road/Home Score 2: 197.225
Road/Home Score 3:196.950
The Michigan beam disaster. Is it 2012 already? PTSD flashbacks. This score will be dropped and is best forgotten forever. My motto about beam is that disasters aren't something to worry about until they happen twice. This is the second time, so gentle concern might be arising. But no more than that yet. It was a bit troubling, though, that the errors did compound themselves. The back of the lineup appeared to lose composure after the early mistakes, ending is uncharacteristically weak showings from Artz and Chiarelli, who should be the bam-bam, confident 9.9s at the back of the lineup who save the total even in tense circumstances.
With the dropped score, Michigan's RQS stays the same, which makes the total a little more vulnerable to the likes of LSU, Utah, and UCLA. Still, both bold scores are perfectly fine right now, and with three road meets remaining, there's time to get a few more. Michigan's scores are tightly packed enough that even with a season high next weekend at Oklahoma, they have no chance to move up any higher than 4th. The mission will be holding off the challenging hordes.
5. Utah – 196.850
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.150
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.725
Road/Home Score 1: 197.150
Road/Home Score 2: 197.125
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175
Utah will be relatively happy with the performance at Stanford, one that was largely steady if marked by a few more missed dismounts on bars and checks on beam, but will not be particularly happy with the total. The big 197.5s that it takes to challenge the top remain out of reach. Still, Utah has that 196.1 hanging around the RQS picture, and we can expect that score to be eradicated next week barring disaster, which puts the team in contention to catch Michigan even with another normal, medium performance.
The Utes also got in a tiny morsel of fake internet trouble over the weekend by tweeting something along the lines of "three people go to Stanford's meets, and a million people go to our meets. Neener-neener-neener." I paraphrase. It was basically that. Apparently, this was shocking and offensive to people because of the wild hypersensitivity of college gymnastics. Was it kind of snarky and ignoble? Yeah. And that's fine. That's good. A little trash talk between teams/fans is healthy. It's hardly harsh or mean-spirited. There's nothing wrong with some G-rated rivalry and animosity to throw a spark into proceedings. This is a sport of adults after all, not a little girl dance recital presentation where everyone is happy for everyone, hard as some might try to make it that way. But of course, this is college gymnastics, so anything exhibiting a shred of personality, honesty, or the acknowledgment that this is actually a competition among passionate athletes who are in no way required to be supportive best friends must be removed immediately.
It's like when Stanford went to Oklahoma a few years ago and then had a minor twitter rant about the insane scoring, then had to delete it and apologize because heaven forbid someone say something publicly that isn't entirely positive. Or when Taylor Rice came on Gymcastic with us and then got in trouble for having a personality and giving honest impressions about the crazy scores. Breaking news: this is all fine. Have an opinion. Care. Create rivalries. Talk trash. Snark. Disagree. Be excited. Be salty. Cheer. Boo. Raise a hullabaloo. Root for outcomes, not just for everyone to hit/have a good time. Otherwise, how can you expect anyone to treat this like a real sport? Positivity is not exclusively a virtue and negativity is not exclusively a vice. If you're an LSU fan, rooting for Florida to fall on beam or trip while doing a Gator chomp is not mean-spirited and not something to be ashamed of. It's just sports. Inherent in wanting your team to succeed is wanting other teams to fail, and gymnastics needs to stop pretending that's not true and stop pretending that it's something inappropriate, unattractive, or shameful. It just is. Not everyone needs to come away from everything feeling great and supported all the time.
If the Sophina viral incident taught us anything, it's that gymnastics makes waves when it loosens up and shows a side that isn't in line with the prim and reserved reputation it has. So loosen up.
Also, I go on a little mid-ranking rant about hypersensitivity! So that's fun. Enjoy turning on me.
Ashleigh Gnat got a 10 on floor this week, adding to her nation-leading total of three. Other than that, it was once again a week of 9.975s, with Winston and Brannan going back-to-back for Alabama on bars, Sloan getting one on floor, and Stover reaching the mark on beam. Among others?
Also, Kyla retired from elite today. So that's suddenly big news. I should probably have something to say about that. It sounds like the smart decision since Rio was looking less and less and less likely with the passing months. Now, she'll avoid putting her body through the ringer of a Trials process and heal up as much as possible for a UCLA team that desperately needs someone without a case of elite-injured-forever.
Week 7 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.595
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 197.900
Road/Home Score 2: 197.475
Road/Home Score 3: 197.375
The Sooners scores a relatively paltry 197.375 at Georgia over the weekend. Slackers. That counts as bad for Oklahoma, a result of a couple missed vault landings and suddenly strictly judged floor routines. You can certainly justify the scores that were given to those floor performances, but the argument that those scores were out of step with the rest of the meet and the general looseness of floor scoring this season is a valid one. The consequence of that garbage shame of a 197.375 is that what used to be a nearly 0.500 RQS advantage over Florida has shrunk to just about 0.250. It's still comfortable, but no longer dominant, and Florida will view the #1 ranking as much more attainable now.
2. Florida – 197.355
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.825
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.675
Road/Home Score 3: 197.450
Much of last week, I spoke about how important it was for Florida to get a huge away score over the weekend to close that gap with Oklahoma, and that's exactly what Florida did. Now, we'll all just acknowledge the fact that Bridget Sloan had two landing hops on floor and the judges just threw roses at her and shouted, "Encore! Bravissima!" instead of taking deductions, and the questions about Florida's ability to keep pace on floor remain. Still, 197.750. No slouch of a score. Mission #1 accomplished, but Florida will still need to replicate that performance in the two remaining road meets in order to have a shot at #1 and drop the distinctly un-Florida score still in the RQS picture.
3. Alabama – 197.195
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.375
Road/Home Score 2: 197.175
Road/Home Score 3: 196.875
Alabama had an RQS lead on Florida going into the week and had a real shot at #2 but was not able to gain as much after getting stuck on the 9.850s for three events, though a huge bars score lifted the total up to 197.300, a respectable enough total and one that keeps Alabama squarely in the hunt for a finish somewhere 3-5. Counting two 197.3s, however, will make it harder to move up any higher than 3rd given what Oklahoma and Florida are counting so far. Right now, I would classify Alabama as the deepest team in NCAA, but the difference between qualifying to Super Six and challenging for the title will be decided by whether this is just a team with a billion 9.850 options or a team with a billion 9.850 options, from which emerge 12+ 9.9 options.
4. Michigan – 196.920
RQS:
Road Score 1: 196.975
Road Score 2: 196.900
Road Score 3: 196.550
Road/Home Score 1: 197.425
Road/Home Score 2: 197.225
Road/Home Score 3:196.950
The Michigan beam disaster. Is it 2012 already? PTSD flashbacks. This score will be dropped and is best forgotten forever. My motto about beam is that disasters aren't something to worry about until they happen twice. This is the second time, so gentle concern might be arising. But no more than that yet. It was a bit troubling, though, that the errors did compound themselves. The back of the lineup appeared to lose composure after the early mistakes, ending is uncharacteristically weak showings from Artz and Chiarelli, who should be the bam-bam, confident 9.9s at the back of the lineup who save the total even in tense circumstances.
With the dropped score, Michigan's RQS stays the same, which makes the total a little more vulnerable to the likes of LSU, Utah, and UCLA. Still, both bold scores are perfectly fine right now, and with three road meets remaining, there's time to get a few more. Michigan's scores are tightly packed enough that even with a season high next weekend at Oklahoma, they have no chance to move up any higher than 4th. The mission will be holding off the challenging hordes.
5. Utah – 196.850
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.150
Road Score 2: 197.075
Road Score 3: 196.725
Road/Home Score 1: 197.150
Road/Home Score 2: 197.125
Road/Home Score 3: 196.175
Utah will be relatively happy with the performance at Stanford, one that was largely steady if marked by a few more missed dismounts on bars and checks on beam, but will not be particularly happy with the total. The big 197.5s that it takes to challenge the top remain out of reach. Still, Utah has that 196.1 hanging around the RQS picture, and we can expect that score to be eradicated next week barring disaster, which puts the team in contention to catch Michigan even with another normal, medium performance.
The Utes also got in a tiny morsel of fake internet trouble over the weekend by tweeting something along the lines of "three people go to Stanford's meets, and a million people go to our meets. Neener-neener-neener." I paraphrase. It was basically that. Apparently, this was shocking and offensive to people because of the wild hypersensitivity of college gymnastics. Was it kind of snarky and ignoble? Yeah. And that's fine. That's good. A little trash talk between teams/fans is healthy. It's hardly harsh or mean-spirited. There's nothing wrong with some G-rated rivalry and animosity to throw a spark into proceedings. This is a sport of adults after all, not a little girl dance recital presentation where everyone is happy for everyone, hard as some might try to make it that way. But of course, this is college gymnastics, so anything exhibiting a shred of personality, honesty, or the acknowledgment that this is actually a competition among passionate athletes who are in no way required to be supportive best friends must be removed immediately.
It's like when Stanford went to Oklahoma a few years ago and then had a minor twitter rant about the insane scoring, then had to delete it and apologize because heaven forbid someone say something publicly that isn't entirely positive. Or when Taylor Rice came on Gymcastic with us and then got in trouble for having a personality and giving honest impressions about the crazy scores. Breaking news: this is all fine. Have an opinion. Care. Create rivalries. Talk trash. Snark. Disagree. Be excited. Be salty. Cheer. Boo. Raise a hullabaloo. Root for outcomes, not just for everyone to hit/have a good time. Otherwise, how can you expect anyone to treat this like a real sport? Positivity is not exclusively a virtue and negativity is not exclusively a vice. If you're an LSU fan, rooting for Florida to fall on beam or trip while doing a Gator chomp is not mean-spirited and not something to be ashamed of. It's just sports. Inherent in wanting your team to succeed is wanting other teams to fail, and gymnastics needs to stop pretending that's not true and stop pretending that it's something inappropriate, unattractive, or shameful. It just is. Not everyone needs to come away from everything feeling great and supported all the time.
If the Sophina viral incident taught us anything, it's that gymnastics makes waves when it loosens up and shows a side that isn't in line with the prim and reserved reputation it has. So loosen up.
February 20, 2016
Saturday Live Blog – Oklahoma @ Georgia; Utah @ Stanford
Saturday, February 20
"That was a good sentence. We have like maybe two."
And then tonight, the elite boys get their Winter Cup on, which is always a treat. It's like gymnastics, but where everyone falls on everything. It's really fun. You'll like it a lot.
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Alabama, Denver, Cornell @ Penn State - SCORES - Stream(free)
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Cal @ Oregon State - SCORES - Pac-12 Oregon
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Pennsylvania, Temple, Ursinus @ Rutgers - SCORES
10:15 ET/7:15 PT – Winter Cuppity Cup Cup Cup – SCORES/STREAM
Joyful times to be had by all! Until we get to Georgia on beam. Then...we'll see. The main focus of the day will be everything, but mostly Oklahoma and Georgia because I'm fascinated to see those two up against each other. I don't think it's going to be the cakewalk for Oklahoma it might seem based on most previous scores, so that's obviously the kiss of death. Enjoy reading that sentence after Oklahoma wins by three points.
First eye goes on that meet. Second eye on Utah and Stanford because that's now an urgent scoring assignment for Stanford. Remaining eyes on Iowa's scores and the "who's fourth-best in this conference" showdown between OSU and Cal. Oh, and Alabama! Too much!
First eye goes on that meet. Second eye on Utah and Stanford because that's now an urgent scoring assignment for Stanford. Remaining eyes on Iowa's scores and the "who's fourth-best in this conference" showdown between OSU and Cal. Oh, and Alabama! Too much!
Also, why you should be a fan of Kaytianna McMillan.
"That was a good sentence. We have like maybe two."
And then tonight, the elite boys get their Winter Cup on, which is always a treat. It's like gymnastics, but where everyone falls on everything. It's really fun. You'll like it a lot.
January 30, 2016
Metroplex Live Blog
It's Metroplex! 8:00 ET/5:00 PT, streamed on Aunt Flogymnastics for those who have signed up for the arm-and-a-leg subscription. For those who haven't, let me be your guide. There are no windows and no doors.
Five teams compete tonight (Oklahoma, LSU, Stanford, Missouri, Washington) because nothing says compelling entertainment like a bye. If there's one thing sports fans love, it's when their favorite team just leaves for a while. They go crazy for it.
Obviously, the judges will have viewed the excessively baroque scoring from the Florida meet last night as a challenge. Do I hear four 10s per team? Everyone is a perfect star! Who wants a juice box and a hug?
January 28, 2016
The Weekend Plans – January 29-February 1
The top 25 schedule looks like a rather paltry affair this week, but that's mostly because it's heavily incestuous with most of the top teams competing against each other. So, what we lose in quantity we should make up for in quality with a few legitimate marquee 50/50 meets. It's worth getting excited about.
Top 25 schedule
While Florida boasts the two strongest floor routines from either team in Baker and Sloan (especially in the absence of Carley Sims), Alabama has many, many more options for realistic 9.850-9.875 routines than Florida does and can use those early spots in the lineup to gain a floor edge. Much as Florida needs comparatively stronger bars scores 4-6, Alabama needs comparatively stronger floor scores 1-3.
Top 25 schedule
Friday, January 29
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [5] Alabama @ [1] Florida
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [3] Michigan @ [17] Nebraska
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [13] Georgia @ [23] Kentucky
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [19] Illinois @ Penn State
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [9] Auburn @ [8] Arkansas
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU @ [10] Boise State
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah @ Utah State
Saturday, January 30
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [11] George Washington @ North Carolina
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [18] Minnesota @ Ohio State
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [14] Denver @ Bowling Green
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ [24] Eastern Michigan
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Arizona State @ [15] Oregon State
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Metroplex Challenge ([2] Oklahoma, [6] LSU,
[12] Stanford, [16] Missouri, Washington)
Monday, February 1
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [20] Arizona @ [7] Utah
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [4] UCLA @ [21] Cal
Live blogging
Friday will be the usual, with special focus on Alabama/Florida since that's kind of a massive meet. It doesn't look like there will be live streaming of the Michigan/Nebraska meet, which is a shame, so we'll just have to keep ourselves warm with SEC action and the cozy glow of Kathy Johnson's sigh of dismay. I'll then be back on Saturday to get sloppy with Metroplex, which should be the amazing, competitive, crack-smokingly-scored meet we've come to know and love.
Friday
-We've got some serious showdowns headlining Friday in which the results are actually up in the air (!), so let's get into it. Alabama and Florida is always a worthwhile experience, but with both teams at a point in the season where they're still showing flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of vulnerability, the outcome will probably be determined by which team can minimize those pesky January errors we've been seeing rather than which team is the most brilliantly, spectacularly amazing.
If both teams do end up hitting to their capabilities, give to edge to Florida for having shown higher scoring potential so far this year and (primarily) for being at home. Still, these teams are both at a level when even counting a 9.700 would change the outcome, let alone counting a fall, so there's no margin for the Gators.
Live blogging
Friday will be the usual, with special focus on Alabama/Florida since that's kind of a massive meet. It doesn't look like there will be live streaming of the Michigan/Nebraska meet, which is a shame, so we'll just have to keep ourselves warm with SEC action and the cozy glow of Kathy Johnson's sigh of dismay. I'll then be back on Saturday to get sloppy with Metroplex, which should be the amazing, competitive, crack-smokingly-scored meet we've come to know and love.
Friday
-We've got some serious showdowns headlining Friday in which the results are actually up in the air (!), so let's get into it. Alabama and Florida is always a worthwhile experience, but with both teams at a point in the season where they're still showing flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of vulnerability, the outcome will probably be determined by which team can minimize those pesky January errors we've been seeing rather than which team is the most brilliantly, spectacularly amazing.
If both teams do end up hitting to their capabilities, give to edge to Florida for having shown higher scoring potential so far this year and (primarily) for being at home. Still, these teams are both at a level when even counting a 9.700 would change the outcome, let alone counting a fall, so there's no margin for the Gators.
Florida's clear advantage event is bars. The Gators devlier a much stronger lineup with several more 9.900-9.950s, while Alabama is more a 9.850 team because of scoring vulnerabilities like those double fronts. It's unlikely that Alabama can keep pace with hit Sloan/Caquatto routines, so Florida will need and expect a lead at the halfway point. That's especially especially true because I also give Florida the edge on vault, with bigger 1.5s (though Alabama should have more 1.5s—Beers, Brannan, Guerrero vs. Baker, Boren—which could mitigate that) and two of the best fulls in NCAA in Sloan and McMurtry, fulls that Alabama cannot match with its own. That advantage, however, is so dependent on the landings, and Florida is definitely not on stick patrol yet and giving up quite a bit there right now. If Alabama can land and minimize the two-event deficit to something around two tenths, we've got a real meet.
All eyes will be on Alabama's beam after the catastrophe last weekend to see if it becomes a Georgia or not. Theoretically, I do think Alabama's beam is stronger than Florida's 1-6 with more pristine form and potential 9.9s, but of course, hitting. Florida has been better at hitting beam than any other team so far this year. If Alabama is to take the meet, winning beam is absolutely essential, especially because Florida ends on floor at home, a scoring situation that may counteract any lineup advantage Alabama may have on the event.
All eyes will be on Alabama's beam after the catastrophe last weekend to see if it becomes a Georgia or not. Theoretically, I do think Alabama's beam is stronger than Florida's 1-6 with more pristine form and potential 9.9s, but of course, hitting. Florida has been better at hitting beam than any other team so far this year. If Alabama is to take the meet, winning beam is absolutely essential, especially because Florida ends on floor at home, a scoring situation that may counteract any lineup advantage Alabama may have on the event.
While Florida boasts the two strongest floor routines from either team in Baker and Sloan (especially in the absence of Carley Sims), Alabama has many, many more options for realistic 9.850-9.875 routines than Florida does and can use those early spots in the lineup to gain a floor edge. Much as Florida needs comparatively stronger bars scores 4-6, Alabama needs comparatively stronger floor scores 1-3.
January 25, 2016
Week 3 Rankings + Notes
It sure was a cap-popping blizzard of a weekend.
The champion of the week was Ashleigh Gnat, who recorded the first vault 10 of the new vault era by sticking her DTY. Because that's what happens when you stick DTYs. You get 10s. Do I hear an Amanar? Sorry. I'll stop. OMG YOU GUYS, my aunt's cousin's best enemy's roommate totally saw Ashleigh Gnat training an Amanar. I SWEAR.
"Oh snap, she stuck it!" Oh Sac, never leave us ever. What if KJC said "Oh snap" when someone landed a vault? I'll let you go enjoy your made life.
Week 3 rankings
1. Florida – 197.192
Week 3: 197.075
Week 3 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.575; VT - McMurtry 9.900; UB - Sloan 9.925; BB - McMurtry 9.900; FX - Baker 9.950
2. Oklahoma – 197.094
Week 3: 197.475
Week 3 leaders: AA - Capps, Kmieciak 39.500; VT - Scaman, Jackson, Capps 9.875; UB - Wofford, Kmieciak 9.925; BB - Brown 9.925; FX - Scaman 9.925
3. Michigan – 196.938
Week 3: 196.900
Week 3 leaders: AA - Karas 39.550; VT - Karas 9.950; UB - Artz 9.900; BB - Artz, Marinez 9.900; FX - Karas 9.900
4. UCLA – 196.758
Week 3: 196.800
Week 3 leaders: AA - Ohashi 39.375; VT - Hall 9.900; UB - Ohashi 9.925; BB - Francis, Meraz 9.850; FX - Bynum 9.925
5. Alabama – 196.688
Week 3: 196.400
Week 3 leaders: AA - Beers 38.950; VT - Guerrero 9.900; UB - Winston 9.900; BB - A Sims 9.950; FX - Jetter 9.925
6. LSU – 196.450
Week 3: 196.575
Week 3 leaders: AA - Hambrick 39.325; VT - Gnat 10.000; UB - Priessman 9.925; BB - Finnegan 9.900; FX - Gnat 9.950
7. Utah – 196.342
Week 3: 196.125
Week 3 leaders: AA - Lee 39.100; VT - Hughes 9.900; UB - Rowe 9.950; BB - Stover 9.925; FX - Schwab 9.925
8. Arkansas – 196.113
Week 3: 196.700
Week 3 leaders: AA - Wellick 38.950; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Zaziski, Freier, Glover 9.775; BB - Wellick 9.900; FX - Canizaro, McGlone, Nelson 9.900
9. Auburn – 196.106
Week 3: 195.900
Week 3 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.275; VT - Atkinson 9.825; UB - Atkinson 9.875; BB - Krippner, Hlawek 9.775; FX - Demers 9.925
10. Boise State – 196.063
Week 3: 196.425
Week 3 leaders: AA - Remme 39.250; VT - Stockwell 9.925; UB - Stockwell 9.875; BB - Means, Remme 9.800; FX - Collantes 9.925
11. George Washington – 195.800
Week 3: Cancelled
12. Stanford – 195.783
Week 3: 196.675
Week 3 leaders: AA - Price 39.500; VT - Price 9.925; UB - Price 9.925; BB - Hong 9.925; FX - Price 9.875
13. Georgia – 195.769
Week 3: 195.350
Week 3 leaders: AA - Jay 39.475; VT - Jay, Rogers, Snead 9.875; UB - Vaculik 9.875; BB - Box 9.875; FX - Jay, Box 9.900
14. Denver – 195.642
Week 3: 195.650
Week 3 leaders: AA - McGee 39.500; VT - McGee 9.900; UB - McGee 9.875; BB - Ross 9.800; FX - McGee 9.975
15. Oregon State – 195.633
Week 3: 195.125
Week 3 leaders: AA - Gardiner 39.150; VT - Gardiner 9.850; UB - Singley 9.875; BB - McMillan 9.850; FX - Gardiner 9.875
16. Missouri – 195.600
Week 3: 195.800
Week 3 leaders: AA - None; VT - Ward 9.875; UB - Kelly 9.850; BB - Ward 9.900; FX - Harris 9.925
17. Nebraska – 195.342
Week 3: 195.825
Week 3 leaders: AA - Blanske 39.500; VT - Schweihofer 9.900; UB - Williams 9.875; BB - Williams 9.900; FX - Blanske 9.950
18. Minnesota – 195.267
Week 3: 195.675
Week 3 leaders: AA - Gardner 39.100; VT - Haines 9.825; UB - Holst 9.850; BB - Nordquist 9.950; FX - Mable 9.900
19. Illinois – 195.242
Week 3: 195.150
Week 3 leaders: AA - Horth 39.275; VT - O'Connor 9.850; UB - Horth 9.900; BB - Kato 9.875; FX - O'Connor 9.925
20. Arizona – 195.217
Week 3: 196.475
Week 3 leaders: AA - None; VT - Cindric 9.825; UB - Laub 9.875; BB - Cindric 9.875; FX - Sisler Scheider 9.900
21. Cal – 195.150
Week 3: 195.650
Week 3 leaders: AA - Williams 38.800; VT - Williams 9.875; UB - Williams 9.850; BB - Owens 9.850; FX - Williams 9.925
22. West Virginia – 195.083
Week 3: 195.800
Week 3 leaders: AA - Muhammad 39.325; VT - Koshinski 9.900; UB - Goldberg 9.875; BB - Galpin 9.875; FX - Muhammad 9.950
23. Kentucky – 195.033
Week 3: 195.100
Week 3 leaders: AA - Dukes 39.200; VT - Dukes, Stuart 9.800; UB - Stuart 9.800; BB - Dukes 9.900; FX - Stuart, Roemmele 9.775
24. Eastern Michigan – 194.992
Week 3: 195.050
Week 3 leaders: AA - Valentin 39.025; VT - Slocum 9.900; UB - Conrad 9.800; BB - Rubin 9.875; FX - Slocum 9.850
24. Southern Utah – 194.992
Week 3: 195.275
Week 3 leaders: AA - Ramirez 38.725; VT - Webb 9.850; UB - Shettles 9.850; BB - Trejo, Webb 9.875; FX - Webb 9.825
-Florida retains the #1 ranking after a fine-not-great showing at Auburn, a score brought down by some discomfort/Bridget Sloan improvisation on beam that had not been a factor in earlier performances, along with the continued half-a-floor-lineup situation. Oklahoma gained ground in the rankings after putting up a much more Oklahoma-January type performance, still having to endure one beam fall but without the total number of mistakes that kept the first couple meets in more pedestrian territory.
-The emergence of Natalie Von Lovelyton has been a pleasant develop in the reconstruction of Oklahoma's lineups this season, with her pretty, twisty routines characteristic of the early-KJ Oklahoma era. Brown has a front 2/1 on floor, an E pass but not a double salto E pass, though I've noticed that overall the Sooners are going much simpler than their capability on floor, aside from Scaman. Jackson, Jones, and Capps sometimes are all more than capable of big double-salto E passes, but they haven't been bringing the big. At least not yet. That's even more true for UCLA's lineup, which is a march of the double pikes until Bynum in the anchor spot. It will be interesting to watch when or if the in-your-face difficulty is reintroduced to some of these routines, or if these coaches just decide to say, "Hey, this is what we can do cleanly, and we don't need to do more. Over the last two or three years, clean, amplitudinous double pike routines have received 9.950s and even 10.000s in anchor spots, so.....deal with it."
The champion of the week was Ashleigh Gnat, who recorded the first vault 10 of the new vault era by sticking her DTY. Because that's what happens when you stick DTYs. You get 10s. Do I hear an Amanar? Sorry. I'll stop. OMG YOU GUYS, my aunt's cousin's best enemy's roommate totally saw Ashleigh Gnat training an Amanar. I SWEAR.
"Oh snap, she stuck it!" Oh Sac, never leave us ever. What if KJC said "Oh snap" when someone landed a vault? I'll let you go enjoy your made life.
Week 3 rankings
1. Florida – 197.192
Week 3: 197.075
Week 3 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.575; VT - McMurtry 9.900; UB - Sloan 9.925; BB - McMurtry 9.900; FX - Baker 9.950
2. Oklahoma – 197.094
Week 3: 197.475
Week 3 leaders: AA - Capps, Kmieciak 39.500; VT - Scaman, Jackson, Capps 9.875; UB - Wofford, Kmieciak 9.925; BB - Brown 9.925; FX - Scaman 9.925
3. Michigan – 196.938
Week 3: 196.900
Week 3 leaders: AA - Karas 39.550; VT - Karas 9.950; UB - Artz 9.900; BB - Artz, Marinez 9.900; FX - Karas 9.900
4. UCLA – 196.758
Week 3: 196.800
Week 3 leaders: AA - Ohashi 39.375; VT - Hall 9.900; UB - Ohashi 9.925; BB - Francis, Meraz 9.850; FX - Bynum 9.925
5. Alabama – 196.688
Week 3: 196.400
Week 3 leaders: AA - Beers 38.950; VT - Guerrero 9.900; UB - Winston 9.900; BB - A Sims 9.950; FX - Jetter 9.925
6. LSU – 196.450
Week 3: 196.575
Week 3 leaders: AA - Hambrick 39.325; VT - Gnat 10.000; UB - Priessman 9.925; BB - Finnegan 9.900; FX - Gnat 9.950
7. Utah – 196.342
Week 3: 196.125
Week 3 leaders: AA - Lee 39.100; VT - Hughes 9.900; UB - Rowe 9.950; BB - Stover 9.925; FX - Schwab 9.925
8. Arkansas – 196.113
Week 3: 196.700
Week 3 leaders: AA - Wellick 38.950; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Zaziski, Freier, Glover 9.775; BB - Wellick 9.900; FX - Canizaro, McGlone, Nelson 9.900
9. Auburn – 196.106
Week 3: 195.900
Week 3 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.275; VT - Atkinson 9.825; UB - Atkinson 9.875; BB - Krippner, Hlawek 9.775; FX - Demers 9.925
10. Boise State – 196.063
Week 3: 196.425
Week 3 leaders: AA - Remme 39.250; VT - Stockwell 9.925; UB - Stockwell 9.875; BB - Means, Remme 9.800; FX - Collantes 9.925
11. George Washington – 195.800
Week 3: Cancelled
12. Stanford – 195.783
Week 3: 196.675
Week 3 leaders: AA - Price 39.500; VT - Price 9.925; UB - Price 9.925; BB - Hong 9.925; FX - Price 9.875
13. Georgia – 195.769
Week 3: 195.350
Week 3 leaders: AA - Jay 39.475; VT - Jay, Rogers, Snead 9.875; UB - Vaculik 9.875; BB - Box 9.875; FX - Jay, Box 9.900
14. Denver – 195.642
Week 3: 195.650
Week 3 leaders: AA - McGee 39.500; VT - McGee 9.900; UB - McGee 9.875; BB - Ross 9.800; FX - McGee 9.975
15. Oregon State – 195.633
Week 3: 195.125
Week 3 leaders: AA - Gardiner 39.150; VT - Gardiner 9.850; UB - Singley 9.875; BB - McMillan 9.850; FX - Gardiner 9.875
16. Missouri – 195.600
Week 3: 195.800
Week 3 leaders: AA - None; VT - Ward 9.875; UB - Kelly 9.850; BB - Ward 9.900; FX - Harris 9.925
17. Nebraska – 195.342
Week 3: 195.825
Week 3 leaders: AA - Blanske 39.500; VT - Schweihofer 9.900; UB - Williams 9.875; BB - Williams 9.900; FX - Blanske 9.950
18. Minnesota – 195.267
Week 3: 195.675
Week 3 leaders: AA - Gardner 39.100; VT - Haines 9.825; UB - Holst 9.850; BB - Nordquist 9.950; FX - Mable 9.900
19. Illinois – 195.242
Week 3: 195.150
Week 3 leaders: AA - Horth 39.275; VT - O'Connor 9.850; UB - Horth 9.900; BB - Kato 9.875; FX - O'Connor 9.925
20. Arizona – 195.217
Week 3: 196.475
Week 3 leaders: AA - None; VT - Cindric 9.825; UB - Laub 9.875; BB - Cindric 9.875; FX - Sisler Scheider 9.900
21. Cal – 195.150
Week 3: 195.650
Week 3 leaders: AA - Williams 38.800; VT - Williams 9.875; UB - Williams 9.850; BB - Owens 9.850; FX - Williams 9.925
22. West Virginia – 195.083
Week 3: 195.800
Week 3 leaders: AA - Muhammad 39.325; VT - Koshinski 9.900; UB - Goldberg 9.875; BB - Galpin 9.875; FX - Muhammad 9.950
23. Kentucky – 195.033
Week 3: 195.100
Week 3 leaders: AA - Dukes 39.200; VT - Dukes, Stuart 9.800; UB - Stuart 9.800; BB - Dukes 9.900; FX - Stuart, Roemmele 9.775
24. Eastern Michigan – 194.992
Week 3: 195.050
Week 3 leaders: AA - Valentin 39.025; VT - Slocum 9.900; UB - Conrad 9.800; BB - Rubin 9.875; FX - Slocum 9.850
24. Southern Utah – 194.992
Week 3: 195.275
Week 3 leaders: AA - Ramirez 38.725; VT - Webb 9.850; UB - Shettles 9.850; BB - Trejo, Webb 9.875; FX - Webb 9.825
-Florida retains the #1 ranking after a fine-not-great showing at Auburn, a score brought down by some discomfort/Bridget Sloan improvisation on beam that had not been a factor in earlier performances, along with the continued half-a-floor-lineup situation. Oklahoma gained ground in the rankings after putting up a much more Oklahoma-January type performance, still having to endure one beam fall but without the total number of mistakes that kept the first couple meets in more pedestrian territory.
-The emergence of Natalie Von Lovelyton has been a pleasant develop in the reconstruction of Oklahoma's lineups this season, with her pretty, twisty routines characteristic of the early-KJ Oklahoma era. Brown has a front 2/1 on floor, an E pass but not a double salto E pass, though I've noticed that overall the Sooners are going much simpler than their capability on floor, aside from Scaman. Jackson, Jones, and Capps sometimes are all more than capable of big double-salto E passes, but they haven't been bringing the big. At least not yet. That's even more true for UCLA's lineup, which is a march of the double pikes until Bynum in the anchor spot. It will be interesting to watch when or if the in-your-face difficulty is reintroduced to some of these routines, or if these coaches just decide to say, "Hey, this is what we can do cleanly, and we don't need to do more. Over the last two or three years, clean, amplitudinous double pike routines have received 9.950s and even 10.000s in anchor spots, so.....deal with it."
January 18, 2016
Monday Live Blog - [24] Stanford @ [9] Georgia + Ranking Notes
#24 Stanford. So, you know, there's that. Stanford has some assets compared to Georgia, particularly on bars and beam, but if we don't see fully competitive lineups on vault and floor, it's going to be a long old day.
It's also Monday, so before the meet gets going, let's jump into the rankings and important notes from the weekend just passed.
The top score was a 9.975 on bars recorded by Bridget Sloan, getting a Sloan10 from one of the judges. This angle particularly illuminates the bail, which is why this isn't one of her stronger 9.975s. (The fact that that's a comment.) Sloan Bail is very dependent on angle and usually goes through ups and downs during the course of a season, but if that were crisper, this would have been a legit 10 since we know that NCAA gym takes a see-no-evil approach to flexed feet on single-bar releases.
For your stat note of the week, so far on floor we have seen 13 scores of 9.950 or higher, compared to 5 on beam, 4 on bars, and 2 on vault. So that's new.
Week 2 ranking
1. Florida – 197.250
Week 2: 197.675
Week 2 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.650; VT - Baker, McMurtry 9.925; UB - Sloan 9.975; BB - Sloan, McMurtry 9.925; FX - Baker 9.950
2. Oklahoma – 196.967
Week 2 A: 197.125
Week 2 A leaders: AA - Kmieciak 39.425; VT - Jackson, Scaman 9.900; UB - Wofford, Capps 9.925; BB - Lovan 9.925; FX - Jackson 9.925
Week 2 B: 197.050
Week 2 B leaders: AA - Kmieciak 39.400; VT - Jackson 9.950; UB - Wofford 9.900; BB - Capps 9.925; FX - Scaman 9.900
3. Michigan – 196.950
Week 2: 196.950
Week 2 leaders: AA - Karas 39.425; VT - Karas 9.875; UB - Brown 9.900; BB - Chiarelli 9.950; FX - Artz 9.900
4. Alabama – 196.783
Week 2 A: 197.175
Week 2 A leaders: AA - None; VT - Beers 9.900; UB - Jetter 9.875; BB - Beers, McNeer 9.850; FX - Jetter, Beers 9.950
Week 2 B: 196.875
Week 2 B leaders: AA - None; VT - Brannan 9.875; UB - McNeer, Winston 9.875; BB - Beers 9.900; FX - Bailey, Brannan, Giancroce 9.850
5. UCLA – 196.738
Week 2: 196.925
Week 2 leaders: AA - None; VT - Hall 9.900; UB - DeJesus 9.925; BB - Francis 9.950; FX - Cipra, Bynum 9.900
6. Utah – 196.450
Week 2: 196.725
Week 2 leaders: AA - Lee 38.775; VT - Hughes 9.900; UB - Lopez, Hughes 9.925; BB - Lee, Partyka 9.900; FX - Hughes 9.875
7. LSU – 196.388
Week 2: 195.825
Week 2 leaders: AA - Gnat 38.975; VT - Ewing 9.925; UB - Finnegan 9.950; BB - Macadaeg 9.875; FX - Macadaeg 9.950
8. Auburn – 196.175
Week 2 A: 196.275
Week 2 A leaders: AA - None; VT - Demers 9.900; UB - Atkinson 9.900; BB - Atkinson, Demers, Milliet 9.850; FX - Rott 9.800
Week 2 B: 196.075
Week 2 B leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.375; VT - Demers 9.875; UB - Arkinson 9.875; BB - Milliet 9.850; FX - Atkinson 9.825
9. Georgia – 195.988
Week 2: 196.775
Week 2 leaders: AA - Rogers 39.425; VT - Jay 9.950; UB - Rogers 9.900; BB - Rogers 9.900; FX - Jay 9.875
10. Arkansas – 195.917
Week 2 A: 196.700
Week 2 A leaders: AA - Wellick 39.150; VT - Wellick 9.850; UB - Zaziski, Canizaro, Speed 9.875; BB - Dillard, Zaziski 9.875; FX - Wellick 9.900
Week 2 B: 195.900
Week 2 B leaders: AA - Wellick 39.125; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Zaziski 9.900; BB - Zaziski 9.875; FX - McGlone 9.825
It's also Monday, so before the meet gets going, let's jump into the rankings and important notes from the weekend just passed.
The top score was a 9.975 on bars recorded by Bridget Sloan, getting a Sloan10 from one of the judges. This angle particularly illuminates the bail, which is why this isn't one of her stronger 9.975s. (The fact that that's a comment.) Sloan Bail is very dependent on angle and usually goes through ups and downs during the course of a season, but if that were crisper, this would have been a legit 10 since we know that NCAA gym takes a see-no-evil approach to flexed feet on single-bar releases.
For your stat note of the week, so far on floor we have seen 13 scores of 9.950 or higher, compared to 5 on beam, 4 on bars, and 2 on vault. So that's new.
Week 2 ranking
1. Florida – 197.250
Week 2: 197.675
Week 2 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.650; VT - Baker, McMurtry 9.925; UB - Sloan 9.975; BB - Sloan, McMurtry 9.925; FX - Baker 9.950
2. Oklahoma – 196.967
Week 2 A: 197.125
Week 2 A leaders: AA - Kmieciak 39.425; VT - Jackson, Scaman 9.900; UB - Wofford, Capps 9.925; BB - Lovan 9.925; FX - Jackson 9.925
Week 2 B: 197.050
Week 2 B leaders: AA - Kmieciak 39.400; VT - Jackson 9.950; UB - Wofford 9.900; BB - Capps 9.925; FX - Scaman 9.900
3. Michigan – 196.950
Week 2: 196.950
Week 2 leaders: AA - Karas 39.425; VT - Karas 9.875; UB - Brown 9.900; BB - Chiarelli 9.950; FX - Artz 9.900
4. Alabama – 196.783
Week 2 A: 197.175
Week 2 A leaders: AA - None; VT - Beers 9.900; UB - Jetter 9.875; BB - Beers, McNeer 9.850; FX - Jetter, Beers 9.950
Week 2 B: 196.875
Week 2 B leaders: AA - None; VT - Brannan 9.875; UB - McNeer, Winston 9.875; BB - Beers 9.900; FX - Bailey, Brannan, Giancroce 9.850
5. UCLA – 196.738
Week 2: 196.925
Week 2 leaders: AA - None; VT - Hall 9.900; UB - DeJesus 9.925; BB - Francis 9.950; FX - Cipra, Bynum 9.900
6. Utah – 196.450
Week 2: 196.725
Week 2 leaders: AA - Lee 38.775; VT - Hughes 9.900; UB - Lopez, Hughes 9.925; BB - Lee, Partyka 9.900; FX - Hughes 9.875
7. LSU – 196.388
Week 2: 195.825
Week 2 leaders: AA - Gnat 38.975; VT - Ewing 9.925; UB - Finnegan 9.950; BB - Macadaeg 9.875; FX - Macadaeg 9.950
8. Auburn – 196.175
Week 2 A: 196.275
Week 2 A leaders: AA - None; VT - Demers 9.900; UB - Atkinson 9.900; BB - Atkinson, Demers, Milliet 9.850; FX - Rott 9.800
Week 2 B: 196.075
Week 2 B leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.375; VT - Demers 9.875; UB - Arkinson 9.875; BB - Milliet 9.850; FX - Atkinson 9.825
9. Georgia – 195.988
Week 2: 196.775
Week 2 leaders: AA - Rogers 39.425; VT - Jay 9.950; UB - Rogers 9.900; BB - Rogers 9.900; FX - Jay 9.875
10. Arkansas – 195.917
Week 2 A: 196.700
Week 2 A leaders: AA - Wellick 39.150; VT - Wellick 9.850; UB - Zaziski, Canizaro, Speed 9.875; BB - Dillard, Zaziski 9.875; FX - Wellick 9.900
Week 2 B: 195.900
Week 2 B leaders: AA - Wellick 39.125; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Zaziski 9.900; BB - Zaziski 9.875; FX - McGlone 9.825
January 14, 2016
The Weekend Plans – January 15-18
Keep in mind that this is a super-extendo-weekend, beginning tonight and going through Monday, on which we fulfill the national tradition of celebrating the memory of Martin Luther King by bitching about vault landings. As he would have wanted. It's a busy one, with many many teams forcing themselves into two meets in three days for some horrible reason.
Top 25 schedule + other notables
Top 25 schedule + other notables
Thursday, January 14
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Yale @ [18] New Hampshire
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [1] LSU vs. [23] NC State (Las Vegas, NV)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [1] LSU vs. [23] NC State (Las Vegas, NV)
Friday, January 15
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [5] UCLA @ [3] Florida
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [14] Missouri @ [6] Alabama
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [12] Oregon State, Bridgeport, Illinois State,
Wisconsin-Eau Claire @ Lindenwood
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [11] Cal, Texas Woman’s @ [4] Oklahoma
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [21] Kentucky @ [7] Auburn
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [15] Georgia @ [16] Arkansas
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [7] Utah @ Southern Utah
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [16] Kent State @ Utah State
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [16] Kent State @ Utah State
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Boise State, Seattle Pacific @ UC Davis
Saturday, January 16
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [19] Illinois @ Rutgers
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Ohio State @ [1] Michigan
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Nebraska @ Penn State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [25] Maryland @ [23] Minnesota
Sunday, January 17
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [20] Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green @ Western Michigan
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – North Carolina, Penn, Cornell, Temple @ [7] George
Washington
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [10] Arizona @ Texas Woman’s
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [4] Oklahoma @ [16] Arkansas
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [6] Alabama vs. [7] Auburn (Birmingham, AL)
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [18] New Hampshire @ West Virginia
As always, the full schedule can be found at the link at the top.
Live blogging
I will definitely be here live blogging on Friday for UCLA/Florida and Georgia/Arkansas and on Monday for Stanford/Georgia. Other than that, it's a maybe. So stay tuned, but don't weep into your handkerchiefs if it doesn't happen. Or do.
Friday
-The day starts with the big matchup, Florida and UCLA. UCLA will take relief from the win over Alabama, but beating Florida in Florida would be quite the little upset. For some reason, I don't think Bridget Sloan is going to get stuck in the 9.8s again this weekend. Watching how Florida Scoring (TM) plays out in the post-Rhonda era should be one of the more interesting parts of the meet. Remember that time Florida got a 49.8 on floor? Ah, the memories.
The Gators were just OK in the opening meet, but even though it's early, I think we all expect to see a real step forward this weekend, particularly on vault. As in, Alicia Boren is probably not going to fall again. I'm also eager to see how the vault and floor lineups develop in the coming weeks as they looked a little...unsettled in the opener, featuring a couple backup routines. That floor lineup needs the Bridgey anchor score this year much more than ever before since they may be throwing in two routines in the lower 9.8s.
Really, if Florida was able to go 196.825 last weekend when hitting just one of four events at an expected level, a serious 197 must be the task on Friday.
-This weekend, UCLA should be happy with replicating the beam and floor performances from the first week. Floor won't score the same on the road, but if the Bruins compete those two events at a similar level, that should be enough to earn an early road 196 to rest on. Beam remains the team's best event, the only potential weakness being an attack from the inconsistency monster, so finishing on beam in front of a bigger road crowd cheering some (presumably) giant floor scores this week will be a valuable and necessary challenge. While Florida also scored well on beam in the first meet, this is the one event where the Bruins are the stronger side, so they'll have to take advantage.
Monday, January 18
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [22] Stanford @ [15] Georgia
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [13] Denver @ Iowa
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Washington @ Arizona State
As always, the full schedule can be found at the link at the top.
Live blogging
I will definitely be here live blogging on Friday for UCLA/Florida and Georgia/Arkansas and on Monday for Stanford/Georgia. Other than that, it's a maybe. So stay tuned, but don't weep into your handkerchiefs if it doesn't happen. Or do.
Friday
-The day starts with the big matchup, Florida and UCLA. UCLA will take relief from the win over Alabama, but beating Florida in Florida would be quite the little upset. For some reason, I don't think Bridget Sloan is going to get stuck in the 9.8s again this weekend. Watching how Florida Scoring (TM) plays out in the post-Rhonda era should be one of the more interesting parts of the meet. Remember that time Florida got a 49.8 on floor? Ah, the memories.
The Gators were just OK in the opening meet, but even though it's early, I think we all expect to see a real step forward this weekend, particularly on vault. As in, Alicia Boren is probably not going to fall again. I'm also eager to see how the vault and floor lineups develop in the coming weeks as they looked a little...unsettled in the opener, featuring a couple backup routines. That floor lineup needs the Bridgey anchor score this year much more than ever before since they may be throwing in two routines in the lower 9.8s.
Really, if Florida was able to go 196.825 last weekend when hitting just one of four events at an expected level, a serious 197 must be the task on Friday.
-This weekend, UCLA should be happy with replicating the beam and floor performances from the first week. Floor won't score the same on the road, but if the Bruins compete those two events at a similar level, that should be enough to earn an early road 196 to rest on. Beam remains the team's best event, the only potential weakness being an attack from the inconsistency monster, so finishing on beam in front of a bigger road crowd cheering some (presumably) giant floor scores this week will be a valuable and necessary challenge. While Florida also scored well on beam in the first meet, this is the one event where the Bruins are the stronger side, so they'll have to take advantage.
January 7, 2016
The Weekend Plans – January 8-10
It's here! Wait, how do we do this again?
Top 25 Schedule
Saturday, January 9
Sunday, January 10
As always, the full schedule is available at the link at the top. Note that Arkansas and Boise State will not be competing this weekend.
FRIDAY
Top 25 Schedule
Friday, January 8
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ [21] Kentucky
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Central Michigan, UW-Whitewater, Winona
State @ UW-Eau Claire
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Florida @ Texas Woman’s
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – BYU @ [4] Utah
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Michigan State @ [18] Arizona
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [15] Illinois @ [23] Missouri
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [11]Nebraska, Bowling Green @ Arizona State
Saturday, January 9
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [9] Georgia @ [7] Michigan
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – NC State @ [17] Penn State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [1] Oklahoma @ [5] LSU
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Iowa State @ [20] Minnesota
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah, West Virginia @ [16] Denver
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [22] Ohio State @ Washington
Sunday, January 10
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [23] Missouri @ Lindenwood
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [3] Alabama @ [6] UCLA
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [3] Alabama @ [6] UCLA
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Nor Cal Classic ([8] Stanford, [14] Cal, UC Davis.
Sacramento State @ San Jose State)
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [10] Auburn @ [12] Oregon State
As always, the full schedule is available at the link at the top. Note that Arkansas and Boise State will not be competing this weekend.
FRIDAY
-Let the live blogging begin! I'll be here from the start, though there aren't any really enticing matchups on Friday (you're not even trying...), so I'll probably bop around from meet to meet, missing everything important. I do want to make sure to watch a fair chunk of Nebraska since we rarely get to see Nebraska during the season. Florida against TWU will be broadcast on Aunt Flogymnastics, so those of you watching it are required to provide updates of honesty in the comments. You have your mission.
-For Florida, this will be a very comfortable win, but as I mentioned in the preview, I'm looking forward to seeing the lineup strategy. I'll also be interested to find out where Peyton Ernst is at this point, how Alicia Boren does in her debut given how important she is to the team this year, and how many 10s Bridget Sloan gets. Over/under?
-There's a little less mystery about Utah because we saw them at the RRP and they diligently release their lineups a million days in advance. This too will be an easy-peasy meet, but we've got a lot of event debuts (Lee and Schwab on bars, Merrell and Partyka on beam and floor), which is always reason for a keen eye. Bars and floor are the most depleted since last season, so watch for stuck-at-9.825-itis, though that may be expected to some degree this early in the season. But, is there potential to go much higher?
-Speaking of depleted, Nebraska has a bunch of empty spots in these lineups, and depth will be a major storyline this season. I'm hoping to see as many different freshmen as possible competing to give the team more options than I currently think there are. Let's not make this not a six-AAers kind of season since that is the most nerve-wracking thing in the world. Someone find the bubble wrap. I'm also interested to see how Arizona State fills out these lineups, as in, can they? There are almost four people on the roster this season, but might it be a little less depressing than last year? A little?
SATURDAY
-For Florida, this will be a very comfortable win, but as I mentioned in the preview, I'm looking forward to seeing the lineup strategy. I'll also be interested to find out where Peyton Ernst is at this point, how Alicia Boren does in her debut given how important she is to the team this year, and how many 10s Bridget Sloan gets. Over/under?
-There's a little less mystery about Utah because we saw them at the RRP and they diligently release their lineups a million days in advance. This too will be an easy-peasy meet, but we've got a lot of event debuts (Lee and Schwab on bars, Merrell and Partyka on beam and floor), which is always reason for a keen eye. Bars and floor are the most depleted since last season, so watch for stuck-at-9.825-itis, though that may be expected to some degree this early in the season. But, is there potential to go much higher?
-Speaking of depleted, Nebraska has a bunch of empty spots in these lineups, and depth will be a major storyline this season. I'm hoping to see as many different freshmen as possible competing to give the team more options than I currently think there are. Let's not make this not a six-AAers kind of season since that is the most nerve-wracking thing in the world. Someone find the bubble wrap. I'm also interested to see how Arizona State fills out these lineups, as in, can they? There are almost four people on the roster this season, but might it be a little less depressing than last year? A little?
SATURDAY
-Now that's more like it. We've got two fairly huge meets on Saturday, which overlap because, once again, pull it together everyone.
-Georgia travels to Michigan to open the season, and this will be the first meet of the year that actually has an uncertain outcome. Michigan does enter as the favorite, however, competing at home and coming off an impressive first meet for a team that was in so many pieces so recently, but it's not open and shut. As we know, the Wolverines are still not a deep team and will need the exact competitors they showed in Cancun to be competitive with the best teams in the country this year. But now, after the Cancun success, it's 197 or bust. Anything less is a regression.
December 22, 2015
#8 Stanford Preview
Roster
Chuang, Melissa - Senior - VT, FX
Daum, Rachel - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Fitzgerald, Taryn - Freshman
Frowein, Jenna - Senior - FX
Hoffman, Hailee - Freshman
Hoffman, Nicole - Freshman
Hong, Ivana - Senior - VT, UB, BB (FX legs permitting?)
Maxwell, Dare - Freshman
McNair, Danielle - Junior - VT, UB
McNair, Nicolette - Junior - VT, UB, BB (hopefully FX this time)
Price, Elizabeth - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Rice, Taylor - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Spector, Haley - Junior - FX (possible backup BB)
Recent History
2015 - 5th
2014 - 9th
2013 - 12th
2012 - 4th
2011 - 15th
2010 - 4th
2016 Outlook
Last season, Stanford did usual Stanford things: Start horrifyingly, slowly improve throughout the season, and then smack everyone in the face with bars and beam pretty once nationals roll around. I wouldn't put it past Stanford to do the same thing this year—with the Ivie/Ebee dynamic duo anything is possible—but without Shapiro, Vaculik, and Wing, the dynamic has shifted away from bars and beam to an extent, putting more pressure on vault and floor to be competitive scores. It will be interesting to see if the team can adjust. As always, the primary obstacle will be depth. There aren't a lot of backups on these events, so everyone + 3 other people have to stay healthy all season long. This is a clear nationals team, unless there's a real injury implosion, but Super Six will be a more challenging prospect this time around without some of those stars. And by stars, I mean Kristina Vaculik's gienger, the true meaning of Christmas. Expect the usual game of "197 or 194" roulette.
Key Competitor
The rest of them. The first and second person in each lineup. We know Price can get 9.9s on every event. Hong can get 9.9s on every event she's healthy enough to compete. Rice and Nicolette McNair can go 9.850+ on all their pieces. That's an excellent foundation with Super Six-level scores (if it were four up, four count, Stanford would be among the favorites), but Stanford's success will be determined by who is able to fill out the rest of the lineups. Are there at least two consistent 9.8+ scores per event coming from the likes of Daum, Chuang, Danielle McNair, Maxwell, Fitzgerald, and Spector? Those six gymnasts will determine Stanford's fate this season. The Cardinal got twelve 9.9s in Super Six last year (and eight of them have returned this year). You know who else got twelve 9.9s? Florida. Every other school got fewer. The only thing holding this team back was the contingent of supporting scores. There's even more pressure on them this year to be not a 9.6.
Vault
The new vault values shouldn't be particularly devastating to Stanford, mostly because of a little gem named Elizabeth Price. She vaulted a full last season coming back from injury, and because there was no incentive to do more, but obviously she can do more difficulty than that in her sleep. She's probably the best bet for #1 vaulter in the nation this year, and her weekly 9.9s will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup. It will be worth watching who else pulls out a 1.5 this year, with Danielle McNair and Taryn Fitzgerald both capable of it, but to varying degrees of success. It's not the sure scoring boon it is for Price, so we'll see if it ends up being worth it. Still, the options exist to be worked on. It's a shame Pauline Hanset missed out by a year. Maybe she would have actually been rewarded for her handspring pike 1/2 this year instead of consistently underscored.
Rice and Nicolette McNair will also return to the lineup and should be able to continue scoring in the 9.8s. The critical factor in filling out this event will be the potential refreshing injury comebacks of Rachel Daum and Melissa Chuang. Back when they were healthy, in the late 60s, Chuang could go 9.800 and Daum could go 9.850. Daum actually had a very strong 1.5 back in JO/elite days as well. Having those two back would be magnificent for filling out the lineup with enough believable options to allow the team to take it easy with Ivana Hong as needed and not feel the pressure to shove her out there on vault every week. I can't imagine they'd push Hong to vault more than a full at this point (because when hasn't she suffered serious knee injuries on vault?), but she still has a glorious full that can be trotted later in the year for big scores. Ideally, she'd vault the whole year, but let's be realistic with our Hong-leg expectations. Because of Price, this lineup should still get into the 49.2s with the occasional 49.3.
Bars
Bars should be the most...transformed event from last season because the team will no longer have Vaculik Gienger and Shapiro Toe Point to rely on to bolster the collection of 9.9s. Several 9.9s still exist (so the potential for high scores remains intact), but the problem is a fundamental lack of routines. By that, I mean there are exactly six of them. That makes it pretty easy to come up with a lineup but also puts the team in a really precarious position. No injuries, no falls, no margin whatsoever. Hong and Price are the go-to women, obviously, and are both supremely capable of scoring weekly 9.9s that will be necessary to protect against depth travesties. Nicolette McNair is also quite good on bars and should consistently be pecking around 9.9.
Chuang, Melissa - Senior - VT, FX
Daum, Rachel - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Fitzgerald, Taryn - Freshman
Frowein, Jenna - Senior - FX
Hoffman, Hailee - Freshman
Hoffman, Nicole - Freshman
Hong, Ivana - Senior - VT, UB, BB (FX legs permitting?)
Maxwell, Dare - Freshman
McNair, Danielle - Junior - VT, UB
McNair, Nicolette - Junior - VT, UB, BB (hopefully FX this time)
Price, Elizabeth - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Rice, Taylor - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Spector, Haley - Junior - FX (possible backup BB)
Recent History
2015 - 5th
2014 - 9th
2013 - 12th
2012 - 4th
2011 - 15th
2010 - 4th
2016 Outlook
Last season, Stanford did usual Stanford things: Start horrifyingly, slowly improve throughout the season, and then smack everyone in the face with bars and beam pretty once nationals roll around. I wouldn't put it past Stanford to do the same thing this year—with the Ivie/Ebee dynamic duo anything is possible—but without Shapiro, Vaculik, and Wing, the dynamic has shifted away from bars and beam to an extent, putting more pressure on vault and floor to be competitive scores. It will be interesting to see if the team can adjust. As always, the primary obstacle will be depth. There aren't a lot of backups on these events, so everyone + 3 other people have to stay healthy all season long. This is a clear nationals team, unless there's a real injury implosion, but Super Six will be a more challenging prospect this time around without some of those stars. And by stars, I mean Kristina Vaculik's gienger, the true meaning of Christmas. Expect the usual game of "197 or 194" roulette.
Key Competitor
The rest of them. The first and second person in each lineup. We know Price can get 9.9s on every event. Hong can get 9.9s on every event she's healthy enough to compete. Rice and Nicolette McNair can go 9.850+ on all their pieces. That's an excellent foundation with Super Six-level scores (if it were four up, four count, Stanford would be among the favorites), but Stanford's success will be determined by who is able to fill out the rest of the lineups. Are there at least two consistent 9.8+ scores per event coming from the likes of Daum, Chuang, Danielle McNair, Maxwell, Fitzgerald, and Spector? Those six gymnasts will determine Stanford's fate this season. The Cardinal got twelve 9.9s in Super Six last year (and eight of them have returned this year). You know who else got twelve 9.9s? Florida. Every other school got fewer. The only thing holding this team back was the contingent of supporting scores. There's even more pressure on them this year to be not a 9.6.
Vault
The new vault values shouldn't be particularly devastating to Stanford, mostly because of a little gem named Elizabeth Price. She vaulted a full last season coming back from injury, and because there was no incentive to do more, but obviously she can do more difficulty than that in her sleep. She's probably the best bet for #1 vaulter in the nation this year, and her weekly 9.9s will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup. It will be worth watching who else pulls out a 1.5 this year, with Danielle McNair and Taryn Fitzgerald both capable of it, but to varying degrees of success. It's not the sure scoring boon it is for Price, so we'll see if it ends up being worth it. Still, the options exist to be worked on. It's a shame Pauline Hanset missed out by a year. Maybe she would have actually been rewarded for her handspring pike 1/2 this year instead of consistently underscored.
Rice and Nicolette McNair will also return to the lineup and should be able to continue scoring in the 9.8s. The critical factor in filling out this event will be the potential refreshing injury comebacks of Rachel Daum and Melissa Chuang. Back when they were healthy, in the late 60s, Chuang could go 9.800 and Daum could go 9.850. Daum actually had a very strong 1.5 back in JO/elite days as well. Having those two back would be magnificent for filling out the lineup with enough believable options to allow the team to take it easy with Ivana Hong as needed and not feel the pressure to shove her out there on vault every week. I can't imagine they'd push Hong to vault more than a full at this point (because when hasn't she suffered serious knee injuries on vault?), but she still has a glorious full that can be trotted later in the year for big scores. Ideally, she'd vault the whole year, but let's be realistic with our Hong-leg expectations. Because of Price, this lineup should still get into the 49.2s with the occasional 49.3.
Bars
Bars should be the most...transformed event from last season because the team will no longer have Vaculik Gienger and Shapiro Toe Point to rely on to bolster the collection of 9.9s. Several 9.9s still exist (so the potential for high scores remains intact), but the problem is a fundamental lack of routines. By that, I mean there are exactly six of them. That makes it pretty easy to come up with a lineup but also puts the team in a really precarious position. No injuries, no falls, no margin whatsoever. Hong and Price are the go-to women, obviously, and are both supremely capable of scoring weekly 9.9s that will be necessary to protect against depth travesties. Nicolette McNair is also quite good on bars and should consistently be pecking around 9.9.
November 15, 2015
Freshman Notes: Florida, Utah, Stanford
We've got a whole slew of new, optimistic faces ready to start their NCAA careers in a month and a half (lots of classes with 5 and 6 freshmen this year), so before they do that, let's get to know the new meat and break down what they'll bring to their teams—besides "such great enthusiasm and a beautiful competitive spirit," thank you for your no help, coaches—and where they might contribute this year.
FLORIDA
The defending champs have certainly lost significant routines from Kytra Hunter and the Wang/Spicer 9.850 Preservation Committee after last season, but this is Florida and that happens every year. This new class is probably the second-strongest freshman group in the nation (because cut to LSU going, "wanna fight?") and will be expected to maintain a similar team-scoring pace while missing very few beats, aside from the hole in the ceiling left by Kytra's floor 10s.
It's rare that one of the most anticipated freshmen in a season is a non-elite, but such was the level of Alicia Boren's annual dominance at JO nationals, winning her age group about a hundred years in a row. With most of the name-brand elites entering this season carrying Pulitzer-level injury histories, Boren looks to be among the more reliable bets for "impact freshman," or whatever sportsball people say.
Vault and floor are a definite yes for Boren. She has a very comfortable 1.5 on vault, which is all the more valuable this season, and her floor tumbling is big, big, big. She anchored her JO floor routine with a full-in, which is a total "check me out, losers" move, and I love it. At this point, we should probably start a running tally of "SHE'S THE NEW KYTRA!!11" for the season, because it's going to be all the time. We need a gymnastics-commentary swear jar for it. I hereby ban all further mentions.
Boren's beam work will also have a definite place on the team, with her strong, secure acro elements and workable leaps. The main question mark as to her possible AA contribution will be bars since it's the weaker event of her four. It's not really a problem routine (she would compete bars for the majority of teams), but the releases are a little clunky and there's some foot form. So, while she's capable of putting up a usable bars routine, it will be more challenging to make the top 6 there. At the same time, her JO bars work is much stronger than McMurtry's was, so there's that. 9.950
Let's move on to Peyton Ernst, the one you always think is a character from Make It Or Break It and then remember that she's a real person. Ernst was an elite for a number of years, coming out of Texas (Bailie Key's Broken) Dreams, and was legitimately in the conversation for an early-quad Worlds team before her case of Generalized Elite Injury Disorder set in. She has been a little witness protectiony ever since, so in some respects it will be a wait-and-see as to how much she's able to recover those elite routines. But, with her previous elite skill set and well-rounded difficulty and quality across four events (DTY, shaposhi, DLO & double arabian on floor, strong dance elements), she would certainly contribute a big routine on any event in ideal health circumstances.
Ernst's most important event will be beam (and that's the one event we saw from her in the most recent training videos above). Remember when she showed up with that 6.3 elite beam routine and everyone went, "Is that a number?!?!?" We were so young then. Beam was the weakest event for the Gators last year (relative), and they haven't really had that second sure beam 9.900 since Macko left (SHE'S THE NEW MACKO!!11...anyone? Anyone?). Ernst can be that with the right skill composition, of which she has many, many options.
FLORIDA
The defending champs have certainly lost significant routines from Kytra Hunter and the Wang/Spicer 9.850 Preservation Committee after last season, but this is Florida and that happens every year. This new class is probably the second-strongest freshman group in the nation (because cut to LSU going, "wanna fight?") and will be expected to maintain a similar team-scoring pace while missing very few beats, aside from the hole in the ceiling left by Kytra's floor 10s.
It's rare that one of the most anticipated freshmen in a season is a non-elite, but such was the level of Alicia Boren's annual dominance at JO nationals, winning her age group about a hundred years in a row. With most of the name-brand elites entering this season carrying Pulitzer-level injury histories, Boren looks to be among the more reliable bets for "impact freshman," or whatever sportsball people say.
Vault and floor are a definite yes for Boren. She has a very comfortable 1.5 on vault, which is all the more valuable this season, and her floor tumbling is big, big, big. She anchored her JO floor routine with a full-in, which is a total "check me out, losers" move, and I love it. At this point, we should probably start a running tally of "SHE'S THE NEW KYTRA!!11" for the season, because it's going to be all the time. We need a gymnastics-commentary swear jar for it. I hereby ban all further mentions.
Boren's beam work will also have a definite place on the team, with her strong, secure acro elements and workable leaps. The main question mark as to her possible AA contribution will be bars since it's the weaker event of her four. It's not really a problem routine (she would compete bars for the majority of teams), but the releases are a little clunky and there's some foot form. So, while she's capable of putting up a usable bars routine, it will be more challenging to make the top 6 there. At the same time, her JO bars work is much stronger than McMurtry's was, so there's that. 9.950
Let's move on to Peyton Ernst, the one you always think is a character from Make It Or Break It and then remember that she's a real person. Ernst was an elite for a number of years, coming out of Texas (Bailie Key's Broken) Dreams, and was legitimately in the conversation for an early-quad Worlds team before her case of Generalized Elite Injury Disorder set in. She has been a little witness protectiony ever since, so in some respects it will be a wait-and-see as to how much she's able to recover those elite routines. But, with her previous elite skill set and well-rounded difficulty and quality across four events (DTY, shaposhi, DLO & double arabian on floor, strong dance elements), she would certainly contribute a big routine on any event in ideal health circumstances.
Ernst's most important event will be beam (and that's the one event we saw from her in the most recent training videos above). Remember when she showed up with that 6.3 elite beam routine and everyone went, "Is that a number?!?!?" We were so young then. Beam was the weakest event for the Gators last year (relative), and they haven't really had that second sure beam 9.900 since Macko left (SHE'S THE NEW MACKO!!11...anyone? Anyone?). Ernst can be that with the right skill composition, of which she has many, many options.
April 13, 2015
National Championship Preview Part 1: The Afternoon Semifinal of Horrors
Every year, at the first press conference at nationals, Sarah Patterson's first comment was always, "You never take for granted making Super Six." Actually, I'm sure she only said it about once, but in my head it was every moment of the day, every year. Sarah Patterson talking about not taking Super Six for granted and how it's harder to win the SEC Championship than the national title, which makes no damn sense.
But the not taking it for granted part? Never been truer than it is about this year's first semifinal. There are no soft teams and no obvious results here. It's going to be remarkable. At least it better be. The competitors are Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, and Stanford, and pretty much any finishing order seems plausible. The only true surprise here would be if Florida fails to make Super Six. Anything else would sound about right, really. All six of these schools are 197 teams, so we can't expect the 197 standard on which we usually judge the better teams to be good enough. It won't be good enough. Last year, Utah set the record for the highest ever semifinal score that didn't advance to Super Six with a 197.025. I'll be disappointed if that record isn't broken this year. A score like 197.025 shouldn't make it out of this semifinal, because that will mean several teams did not perform at the level we expect. So let's get into it.
FLORIDA
Of all the teams in this semifinal, Florida is the safest. The Gators are the most likely to get a huge score and are the only team in this group that can feel comfortable with their qualification outlook as long as they don't count a fall. Count a fall, and I have no confidence in anything, but if Florida hits 5-for-6 on each event, everything should be fine. Even if the performance is sort of meh like it was at regionals. Florida scored a 197.475 for that meh performance, which will be enough to make Super Six.
It's tough to make prognostications about how Super Six will go at this point because we don't know who's going to be there or how these teams will look once the weekend rolls around. There are always several teams who suddenly learn how to land vaults between regionals and nationals, and a couple other teams who probably should have and didn't. Still, Florida's performance at regionals did not scream "NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP." Fortunately for them, neither did anyone else's. This is open. It shouldn't be like the men's championship over the weekend when Oklahoma just came in and Biles-ed the whole thing.
If Florida is really going to win, there's work to be done. Certainly, bars was the biggest problem at regionals with a whole bunch of "Is it January already?" landings. I'm sure right now they're spending all the live long day in the gym working the crap out of those bars landings so that it doesn't happen again, but let's not forget about the beam questions as well. Yes, Florida recovered from the SEC Championship catastrophe to hit six beam routines at regionals, but even with good hits from Sloan and Hunter, the score was still 49.325, which is somewhat troubling for a hit rotation if we assume it's going to take a 198 to win the title. It took a 198 last year, and the scoring landscape is the same this year. 49.325s put a ton of pressure on the other events. 49.325s are what knocked LSU out of the title race last year.
In reaction to the disaster from SECs, Florida reorganized the beam lineup, moving Boyce to the first spot. She had a pretty significant wobble at regionals and still got a 9.800, which is a good sign for the team, but I do wonder if they have compromised their scoring potential a bit by moving Boyce because she has proven to be the second-most-likely 9.9 in that lineup behind Sloan. Watch that space during the semifinals. Have they given away a 9.9 in exchange for stability?
But this year, if Florida is going to make it three titles in a row, it will be about vaulting like monsters and winning that event. The Gator identity has changed from last year. With the loss of Caquatto and Johnson and the addition of Baker and McMurtry, this team has become less about bars and more about power. They're much better on vault this year, and what was probably the biggest question mark in 2014 (aside from beam consistency, because always) has become the biggest asset. Their scoring capability is crazy, which we know because they got a 49.625 at regionals while sticking just one of six vaults. What are they going to get when they actually hit these vaults, the presidency? Probably. But, still a couple things with that. At nationals, you can't expect to get a 49.625 for one stuck vault. And you can't expect to stick one vault and win. It doesn't work like that. Usually. Or it shouldn't. It's critical that they really take advantage of the vaults they have and open up that lead.
UTAH
First of all, pull yourself together, Utah. That thing you did at regionals was not OK. I hope everyone bought Georgia Dabritz a gold-encrusted manor house filled with baby rabbits after that performance, because she was the only thing standing between Utah and elimination. Utah does come into this semifinal as the second-ranked team, but after regionals, I would not consider this team any kind of a safe bet. The biggest issue at regionals was obviously having to count a fall and a major error on beam (How Rowe escaped from that routine with a 9.700, I'm still not sure...), so hitting that event in the semifinal is job #1. Utah will do beam in the very first rotation, and that will be the most important single event performance in this semifinal. Utah's ability or inability to hit beam will dictate how competitive this session ends up being and how many teams are truly in it.
If Utah gets through beam, they're right in this with a solid shot at advancing, but I wouldn't say it's smooth sailing after beam because that regional performance revealed some other major issues. Keep in mind that even if we gave Utah 0.500 back for the second beam fall at regionals, the total would still have been 197.075, which is not safe. It wasn't entirely a beam issue.
But the not taking it for granted part? Never been truer than it is about this year's first semifinal. There are no soft teams and no obvious results here. It's going to be remarkable. At least it better be. The competitors are Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, and Stanford, and pretty much any finishing order seems plausible. The only true surprise here would be if Florida fails to make Super Six. Anything else would sound about right, really. All six of these schools are 197 teams, so we can't expect the 197 standard on which we usually judge the better teams to be good enough. It won't be good enough. Last year, Utah set the record for the highest ever semifinal score that didn't advance to Super Six with a 197.025. I'll be disappointed if that record isn't broken this year. A score like 197.025 shouldn't make it out of this semifinal, because that will mean several teams did not perform at the level we expect. So let's get into it.
FLORIDA
Of all the teams in this semifinal, Florida is the safest. The Gators are the most likely to get a huge score and are the only team in this group that can feel comfortable with their qualification outlook as long as they don't count a fall. Count a fall, and I have no confidence in anything, but if Florida hits 5-for-6 on each event, everything should be fine. Even if the performance is sort of meh like it was at regionals. Florida scored a 197.475 for that meh performance, which will be enough to make Super Six.
It's tough to make prognostications about how Super Six will go at this point because we don't know who's going to be there or how these teams will look once the weekend rolls around. There are always several teams who suddenly learn how to land vaults between regionals and nationals, and a couple other teams who probably should have and didn't. Still, Florida's performance at regionals did not scream "NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP." Fortunately for them, neither did anyone else's. This is open. It shouldn't be like the men's championship over the weekend when Oklahoma just came in and Biles-ed the whole thing.
If Florida is really going to win, there's work to be done. Certainly, bars was the biggest problem at regionals with a whole bunch of "Is it January already?" landings. I'm sure right now they're spending all the live long day in the gym working the crap out of those bars landings so that it doesn't happen again, but let's not forget about the beam questions as well. Yes, Florida recovered from the SEC Championship catastrophe to hit six beam routines at regionals, but even with good hits from Sloan and Hunter, the score was still 49.325, which is somewhat troubling for a hit rotation if we assume it's going to take a 198 to win the title. It took a 198 last year, and the scoring landscape is the same this year. 49.325s put a ton of pressure on the other events. 49.325s are what knocked LSU out of the title race last year.
In reaction to the disaster from SECs, Florida reorganized the beam lineup, moving Boyce to the first spot. She had a pretty significant wobble at regionals and still got a 9.800, which is a good sign for the team, but I do wonder if they have compromised their scoring potential a bit by moving Boyce because she has proven to be the second-most-likely 9.9 in that lineup behind Sloan. Watch that space during the semifinals. Have they given away a 9.9 in exchange for stability?
But this year, if Florida is going to make it three titles in a row, it will be about vaulting like monsters and winning that event. The Gator identity has changed from last year. With the loss of Caquatto and Johnson and the addition of Baker and McMurtry, this team has become less about bars and more about power. They're much better on vault this year, and what was probably the biggest question mark in 2014 (aside from beam consistency, because always) has become the biggest asset. Their scoring capability is crazy, which we know because they got a 49.625 at regionals while sticking just one of six vaults. What are they going to get when they actually hit these vaults, the presidency? Probably. But, still a couple things with that. At nationals, you can't expect to get a 49.625 for one stuck vault. And you can't expect to stick one vault and win. It doesn't work like that. Usually. Or it shouldn't. It's critical that they really take advantage of the vaults they have and open up that lead.
UTAH
First of all, pull yourself together, Utah. That thing you did at regionals was not OK. I hope everyone bought Georgia Dabritz a gold-encrusted manor house filled with baby rabbits after that performance, because she was the only thing standing between Utah and elimination. Utah does come into this semifinal as the second-ranked team, but after regionals, I would not consider this team any kind of a safe bet. The biggest issue at regionals was obviously having to count a fall and a major error on beam (How Rowe escaped from that routine with a 9.700, I'm still not sure...), so hitting that event in the semifinal is job #1. Utah will do beam in the very first rotation, and that will be the most important single event performance in this semifinal. Utah's ability or inability to hit beam will dictate how competitive this session ends up being and how many teams are truly in it.
If Utah gets through beam, they're right in this with a solid shot at advancing, but I wouldn't say it's smooth sailing after beam because that regional performance revealed some other major issues. Keep in mind that even if we gave Utah 0.500 back for the second beam fall at regionals, the total would still have been 197.075, which is not safe. It wasn't entirely a beam issue.
March 29, 2015
Morgantown Regional Preview
Onward! So many regionals, so little time. Or so it will be on April 4th. The action begins that day with the Morgantown Regional, starting at 4:00 ET/1:00 PT. None of the other meets will be starting until an hour later, so our attention spans will have some solid quality time to spend with what should be one of the most interesting competitions on the day. This is not a cut-and-dry regional.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bars)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Illinois (beam)
[19] Arkansas (bye before floor)
[25] New Hampshire (vault)
[36] West Virginia (floor)
Competing individuals are from Bridgeport (Sasha Tsikhanovich - AA; Caitlin Perry - floor), Rutgers (Elizabeth Groden - AA; Luisa Leal - vault; Jenna Williams - bars), Brown (Diana Walters - AA; Jorden Mitchell - AA), West Chester (Majesta Valentine - AA), Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt - beam).
Florida
Florida is in the same boat as Oklahoma, a would-be easy qualifier that we can get into dissecting in true detail once nationals roll around, but considering the strength of this regional and Florida's performance at SECs this year, there are just a few more things I'm interested in keeping an eye on as the competition proceeds. That's not to say Florida is in danger, or anything. The Gators have no business making this meet even remotely interesting for themselves, but all eyes will be on beam in the second rotation. I really want to see that lineup, and I really want to see how they manage to recover. This performance will tell us whether SECs was a fluke or whether this is something we should be worried about going into nationals, a la 2011 with the beam meltdown heard round the world.
My instinct is certainly on the fluke side more than the problem side. We should see a recovery at regionals, but more than the hitting, the quality of the hit will be important to watch because there are several routines in that lineup that can get stuck in the 9.850s even when hit. That will not keep pace with Oklahoma, boasting what is apparently a whole lineup of 9.975s depending on whether you're a judge at Big 12s or not. We need to see more than just hits, we need to see 9.9s from people who aren't Bridget Sloan. At SECs, Florida put together three rotations that are on track to be national-title quality (not there yet, but on track), but if that's actually going to happen, they can't give away .050-.075 per beam routine to Oklahoma. It's too close for that.
Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas
Here's the thing. Stanford should qualify. Stanford is the most talented team of this contending group, but my confidence in that happening is wisps if anything at all. Not after the solid 197 that Illinois enjoyed at Big Tens and not with how generally nervous Stanford makes me at every moment, how variable their performances are, and how fleeting amazingness has tended to be. That's why Stanford never gets to be a sure bet. There's always that doubt. Which isn't helped by Arkansas's presence as a wildly dangerous 4th seed. I'm including Arkansas in this group because Arkansas is the quintessential spoiler. That's what this team does. I do think that if Stanford or Illinois hit to potential, Arkansas cannot match that score. But if both teams are a little tight in these high-pressure circumstances (it doesn't even have to be a fall, just a couple landings and a couple tenths here and there), then Arkansas is right in this.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bars)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Illinois (beam)
[19] Arkansas (bye before floor)
[25] New Hampshire (vault)
[36] West Virginia (floor)
Competing individuals are from Bridgeport (Sasha Tsikhanovich - AA; Caitlin Perry - floor), Rutgers (Elizabeth Groden - AA; Luisa Leal - vault; Jenna Williams - bars), Brown (Diana Walters - AA; Jorden Mitchell - AA), West Chester (Majesta Valentine - AA), Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt - beam).
Florida
Florida is in the same boat as Oklahoma, a would-be easy qualifier that we can get into dissecting in true detail once nationals roll around, but considering the strength of this regional and Florida's performance at SECs this year, there are just a few more things I'm interested in keeping an eye on as the competition proceeds. That's not to say Florida is in danger, or anything. The Gators have no business making this meet even remotely interesting for themselves, but all eyes will be on beam in the second rotation. I really want to see that lineup, and I really want to see how they manage to recover. This performance will tell us whether SECs was a fluke or whether this is something we should be worried about going into nationals, a la 2011 with the beam meltdown heard round the world.
My instinct is certainly on the fluke side more than the problem side. We should see a recovery at regionals, but more than the hitting, the quality of the hit will be important to watch because there are several routines in that lineup that can get stuck in the 9.850s even when hit. That will not keep pace with Oklahoma, boasting what is apparently a whole lineup of 9.975s depending on whether you're a judge at Big 12s or not. We need to see more than just hits, we need to see 9.9s from people who aren't Bridget Sloan. At SECs, Florida put together three rotations that are on track to be national-title quality (not there yet, but on track), but if that's actually going to happen, they can't give away .050-.075 per beam routine to Oklahoma. It's too close for that.
Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas
Here's the thing. Stanford should qualify. Stanford is the most talented team of this contending group, but my confidence in that happening is wisps if anything at all. Not after the solid 197 that Illinois enjoyed at Big Tens and not with how generally nervous Stanford makes me at every moment, how variable their performances are, and how fleeting amazingness has tended to be. That's why Stanford never gets to be a sure bet. There's always that doubt. Which isn't helped by Arkansas's presence as a wildly dangerous 4th seed. I'm including Arkansas in this group because Arkansas is the quintessential spoiler. That's what this team does. I do think that if Stanford or Illinois hit to potential, Arkansas cannot match that score. But if both teams are a little tight in these high-pressure circumstances (it doesn't even have to be a fall, just a couple landings and a couple tenths here and there), then Arkansas is right in this.
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