Oklahoma won the national title six whole days ago, which is like a thousand years ago. Sorry, Oklahoma. We're moving on. What have you done for us lately? Basically nothing? That's what I thought.
The 2017 season is just around the corner, as long as that corner is really, really far away. We don't know anything real about 2017 yet, but we do know which valuable gems and enthusiastic leaders in the training gym we won't see next year, along with which bright new lights full of possibilities and undiagnosed shin problems will be joining the teams in their place.
Detailed looks at each team and roster will come much later, when the season approaches and I actually vaguely know who these JO gymnasts are, but let's call this a preliminary glance at who's coming and who's going on each team now that the 2016 season is closed and locked away forever and the traditional eight-month moratorium has been placed on the terms "parity," "yurchenko arabian," "confident leadoff," and "life lessons." I've placed the top teams into various categories based on the current outlook and added the RQSs for the routines they will lose after 2016.
This is, of course, assuming that people do what they're supposed to and don't suddenly turn pro or run off to join a traveling circus or whatever.
Smooth sailing
LSU
Out: Jessica Savona, Randii Wyrick, Michelle Gauthier
In: Ruby Harrold, Kennedi Edney, Ashlyn Kirby
Savona - VT - 9.820 avg; UB - 9.840; FX - 9.902 avg
Wyrick - UB - 9.810; FX - 9.905
The Tigers certainly lose a few critical routines, the most important being Savona's floor, though they already gained some experience with life after Savona's vault and floor when she was out early this season (and life after Wyrick's bars when she didn't compete in the postseason). They survived, for the most part. Several of these openings should be filled by people already on the roster, and while I don't think we can have any expectations for Priessman at this point because any week she's healthy enough to compete is just a bonus, Kelley should do more next year. Add to that this freshman class, and I think there's every reason to expect LSU 2017 to be stronger than LSU 2016.
ALABAMA
Out: Lauren Beers, Carley Sims
In: Maddie Desch, Wynter Childers, Shea Mahoney
Beers - VT - 9.905; UB - 9.690; FX - 9.915
Sims - FX - 9.868
Alabama is in a similar position to LSU in terms of not losing that many routines, though Alabama's losses carry a bit more significance, especially on floor with the team's two strongest floories departing. They'll need some of the upperclassmen like Brannan to step up and be a little more Beersy on those events and a little less middle-of-the-lineupy, but with increased contribution from a potential star like Ari Guerra who didn't figure at all by the end of the season and the introduction of Maddie Desch and Wynter Childers, Alabama's first-ever recruit who's also a citizen of District 1, I'm not too worried about the look of Alabama's future roster.
CAL
Out: Serena Leong (?), Kristina Heymann
In: Cassidy Keelen, Rachael Mastrangelo
Cal can't have much to complain about in terms of roster shake-ups since the only two seniors on the roster for 2016 were Heymann, who used to contribute a backup vault, and Leong, who has been injured forever and would be in line for a redshirt season. When healthy, Leong was half of the duo that ushered in Cal's rebirth, along with Asturias. Regardless, Cal shouldn't have to lose anything at all from this season's 7th-place team, only gain for next year. The future is bright.
Dark, but hopeful
These schools will lose many more significant routines than the smooth-sailing schools, but their incoming classes are cause for optimism about maintaining or improving their current levels nonetheless.
OKLAHOMA
Out: Haley Scaman, Keeley Kmieciak, Hunter Price, Nicole Turner
In: Maggie Nichols, Brenna Dowell, Brehanna Showers, Jade Degouveia
Scaman - VT - 9.890; UB - 9.880; FX - 9.945
Kmieciak - VT - 9.865; UB - 9.930; BB - 9.870; FX - 9.870
Price - VT - 9.871 avg
Oh hi, we just won a national championship, and we're going to have Maggie Nichols and Brenna Dowell (back) next year. Oklahoma is losing eight routines from the championship lineups (which is a high but not necessarily devastating number), though nearly every one of those routines was a realistic and regular 9.900. But then, if Nichols and Dowell do show up and deliver next year, that's pretty much your eight high-scoring replacement routines right there (Dowell didn't compete beam in 2015 but I think we all expect that she will Brandie Jay on beam at some point in her OU career). That doesn't even account for the other newcomers, the traditional Oklahoma magicking up of unexpected routines, and the extra redshirt season from long lost Maile Kanewa.
FLORIDA
Out: Bridget Sloan, Bridgey Caquatto, Bianca Dancose-Giambattisto, Morgan Frazier
In: Amelia Hundley, Alyssa Baumann, Rachel Gowey, Maegan Chant
Sloan - VT - 9.900; UB - 9.945; BB - 9.910; FX - 9.950
Caquatto - VT - 9.810; UB - 9.915; FX - 9.900
BDG - UB - 9.865
You wouldn't think the Gators would be in much trouble next year since they're simply losing the services of that non-competing walk-on Bridget Sloan. (Who?) Still, somehow, Florida is bleeding the same number of essential routines as Oklahoma, with the added problem of losing the team's big old star, 10.0-machine, and four-year identity of the program. It's a worry. Fortunately, as Jean-Ralphio would say, this freshman class is off the cherrrrts.
Because Florida is losing such important gymnasts, however, these newbies can't come in and be I'm-not-helping elites who are perpetually injured. They have to be multi-event 9.9s, which will make it interesting to watch how they progress during this summer's Trials season. None are in the serious hunt for the US Olympic team, but that doesn't mean they can't be ground into a fine powder trying. Baumann and Gowey are beautiful rays of starlight, but they also have that fragile "I can only do bars and beam in college because my bones are now made of tears and hope" look to them, and Amelia Hundley is from CGA, so enough said. Florida will need to get a couple big leg-event routines out of this group.
Showing posts with label Denver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denver. Show all posts
April 22, 2016
March 25, 2016
Minnesota Regional Preview
Onward! Following the cue of the wildly circuitous Road to Rio we've been hearing about for the past year (I feel like there might be more efficient ways to get to Rio, like a plane or something), we move along the Road to Lovely Metropolitan Fort Worth from our first stop in Iowa to Minnesota. Wait, are we going the right direction? This feels wrong. Who's navigating this trip? TRAUTWIG!!!???
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before bars)
[11] Denver (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[20] Missouri (bye before floor)
[28] Ohio State (bars)
[31] BYU (vault)
Competing individuals
Iowa State (Haylee Young – AA; Meagan Sievers – AA; Sydney Converse – VT, BB; Briana Ledesma – VT, FX; Hilary Green – UB; Alex Marasco – BB; Kelsey Paz – FX)
Air Force (Kara Witgen – AA; Jamie Lewis – AA)
UW-Whitewater (Mackenzie Smith – UB)
The favorite – Florida
Much like Oklahoma, the Florida Gators enter regionals as the heavy favorite and should win comfortably, pretty much running away with it after the first rotation, even though they'll be on a bye. The win at SECs helps reinforce Florida's status as a comfortable pick to win a fourth-straight title, though the sheer competitiveness of that meet, along with getting outscored by Oklahoma by multiple tenths that day, indicate that it's far from a safe proposition. Florida was challenged by multiple other teams during a well-hit meet. Mostly well-hit.
That brings us to the Sloan problem. You're the one who's not supposed to be a problem! What is happening? For regionals, Florida does have the leeway to make a couple errors or count a fall and still advance, but it's imperative that Sloan work out whatever is happening on beam and why. She has fallen on three of her last five beam routines, and while one of the other two hits was a 10.000, that's not a very Sloan-like record at all. At nationals, the Gators don't just need a hit from her. They need a 9.950. That's how close and high-scoring this thing is going to be. We know Sloan can pull it together, as she mas many times before. As an elite, she had a bit of a Mikulaky reputation for falling on beam on the first day and then hitting on the second day, and even two seasons ago, Bridget was a beam disaster heading into the final Saturday and then got a 20 at Super Six. She needs to Sloan it out again. Our main focus in this meet will be lower down the standings, but Sloan's beam routine in rotation three is a must-watch.
The fight – Denver v. Minnesota
This regional contest is among the more delectable because, aside from providing a potentially close race right down to the end, it guarantees a somewhat unexpected qualifier to nationals. While all three of the contenders here have advanced to nationals in the recent past (Minnesota in 2013, Missouri in 2010, Denver in 2007, 2008), none are what would be considered perennial qualifiers. Someone is going to be spoiling the old party. Also, the Jessica Lopez era was EIGHT years ago?
Denver and Minnesota have both hit tremendous highs this season marked by historically significant scores, but some of those scores have been a little...creative, particularly that weekend of meets during which these two teams squared off twice and split the series.
For instance, this Julia Ross bars routine got a 9.900, which I use to illustrate high scores and because it's one of the key routines for Denver that isn't Nina McGee's floor. They have others.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before bars)
[11] Denver (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[20] Missouri (bye before floor)
[28] Ohio State (bars)
[31] BYU (vault)
Competing individuals
Iowa State (Haylee Young – AA; Meagan Sievers – AA; Sydney Converse – VT, BB; Briana Ledesma – VT, FX; Hilary Green – UB; Alex Marasco – BB; Kelsey Paz – FX)
Air Force (Kara Witgen – AA; Jamie Lewis – AA)
UW-Whitewater (Mackenzie Smith – UB)
The favorite – Florida
Much like Oklahoma, the Florida Gators enter regionals as the heavy favorite and should win comfortably, pretty much running away with it after the first rotation, even though they'll be on a bye. The win at SECs helps reinforce Florida's status as a comfortable pick to win a fourth-straight title, though the sheer competitiveness of that meet, along with getting outscored by Oklahoma by multiple tenths that day, indicate that it's far from a safe proposition. Florida was challenged by multiple other teams during a well-hit meet. Mostly well-hit.
That brings us to the Sloan problem. You're the one who's not supposed to be a problem! What is happening? For regionals, Florida does have the leeway to make a couple errors or count a fall and still advance, but it's imperative that Sloan work out whatever is happening on beam and why. She has fallen on three of her last five beam routines, and while one of the other two hits was a 10.000, that's not a very Sloan-like record at all. At nationals, the Gators don't just need a hit from her. They need a 9.950. That's how close and high-scoring this thing is going to be. We know Sloan can pull it together, as she mas many times before. As an elite, she had a bit of a Mikulaky reputation for falling on beam on the first day and then hitting on the second day, and even two seasons ago, Bridget was a beam disaster heading into the final Saturday and then got a 20 at Super Six. She needs to Sloan it out again. Our main focus in this meet will be lower down the standings, but Sloan's beam routine in rotation three is a must-watch.
The fight – Denver v. Minnesota
This regional contest is among the more delectable because, aside from providing a potentially close race right down to the end, it guarantees a somewhat unexpected qualifier to nationals. While all three of the contenders here have advanced to nationals in the recent past (Minnesota in 2013, Missouri in 2010, Denver in 2007, 2008), none are what would be considered perennial qualifiers. Someone is going to be spoiling the old party. Also, the Jessica Lopez era was EIGHT years ago?
Denver and Minnesota have both hit tremendous highs this season marked by historically significant scores, but some of those scores have been a little...creative, particularly that weekend of meets during which these two teams squared off twice and split the series.
For instance, this Julia Ross bars routine got a 9.900, which I use to illustrate high scores and because it's one of the key routines for Denver that isn't Nina McGee's floor. They have others.
February 12, 2016
Friday Live Blog – Alabama @ Auburn; Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, AND SO MUCH MORE
Friday, February 12
Florida returns home. Place your bets for the number of 10s now.
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Southern Connecticut @ Bridgeport
6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Air Force @ Cortland State - Stream
6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Air Force @ Cortland State - Stream
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – NC State, William & Mary @ North
Carolina - SCORES
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Pittsburgh, Ursinus, Penn @ Towson- SCORES - Stream
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Pittsburgh, Ursinus, Penn @ Towson- SCORES - Stream
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Gustavus Adolphus @ UW-La Crosse - Stream
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Perfect 10 Challenge (Oklahoma,
Denver, George Washington, Utah State) - SCORES - TV: Fox Sports Whatever
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Winona State @ Illinois State
8:00 ET/5:30 PT – IGI Chicago Style (Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Temple, Alaska) - FLOG
8:00 ET/5:30 PT – IGI Chicago Style (Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Temple, Alaska) - FLOG
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Minnesota @ Nebraska - SCORES
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Boise State @ San Jose State - SCORES - Stream
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – UC Davis @ Seattle Pacific - SCORES - Stream
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – UC Davis @ Seattle Pacific - SCORES - Stream
Florida returns home. Place your bets for the number of 10s now.
February 11, 2016
The Weekend Plans – February 12-15
Saturday night meets? What, do they think we all have no lives? Oh wait, that is correct.
Top 25 schedule
Top 25 schedule
Friday, February 12
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [9] Arkansas @ [2] Florida
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [15] Missouri @ [25] Kentucky
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Perfect 10 Challenge - [1] Oklahoma,
[12] Denver, [17] George Washington, Utah State
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [4] Alabama @ [8] Auburn
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU, Sacramento State @ [21] Southern Utah
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [18] Minnesota @ [14] Nebraska
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [10] Boise State @ San Jose State
Saturday, February 13
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [5] LSU @ [11] Georgia
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Penn State @ [23] Ohio State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Iowa @ [20] Illinois
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Southern Connecticut @ [22] New Hampshire
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Washington @ [6] Utah
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [13] Stanford @ Arizona
11:00 ET/8:00 PT – [16] Oregon State @ [7] UCLA
Sunday, February 14
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [25] Kentucky, Lindenwood, Kent State @ Ball
State
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Michigan State @ [3] Michigan
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [24] West Virginia @ [4] Alabama
Monday, February 15
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [19] Cal @ Arizona State
Live blogging
Friday as usual, probably with special attention to the Perfect 10 Challenge since I've seen so much of the SEC this year and less of Denver and GW. Saturday is also sort of making Friday look like an idiot this week, so I'll be all over that with LSU/Georgia and then again later for the glut of Pac-12 action. It'll get crazy. Sit back and let the insanity wash over you like a fine breeze or the knowledge of your own insignificance.
Friday
-The most competitive meets on Friday will probably end up being Missouri/Kentucky and Minnesota/Nebraska. The higher-ranked team will be favored in both, but upset potential exists. I'm particularly curious to see how Missouri fares away from home after that unexpectedly huge score last weekend. The next away meet is always the best test of how realistic home scores are.
-Among the big girls, Alabama against Auburn is the showcase on Friday. Apparently, this is kind of a rivalry or something, but in spite of meeting three times last season and this already being the second meeting of 2016, Auburn is still yet to record a victory against Alabama since turning good. At home and coming off a season-high, this is the best chance they'll have. That said, Alabama should win the meet and is the better team on every event, but that doesn't mean it will be a blowout. The Tide has displayed inconsistency this season, and while there haven't been any implosions since the loss to Arkansas, counting medium mistakes or weak landings has become commonplace, including on two of the four events in the last meet. Relying on those mistakes will be Auburn's hope.
Alabama has two meets this weekend, so I wouldn't necessarily expect to get any answers about postseason lineups quite yet. Dana has been jumbling people all over the place and will likely do the same this time in order to keep everyone relatively rested and avoid over-pressing the fragile ones. I would bet on more depth exploration for the time being.
We should also be on Beers Watch 2016, not just because it's important to start drinking during beam but because even though Lauren Beers has competed a remarkable amount for someone who spent the preseason in several pieces in a shoebox, she has been very up-and-down, occasionally starting to look like herself and then immediately falling a bunch of times. How much will they push her in a double-meet weekend, and will we see GoodBeers or DarthBeers?
Live blogging
Friday as usual, probably with special attention to the Perfect 10 Challenge since I've seen so much of the SEC this year and less of Denver and GW. Saturday is also sort of making Friday look like an idiot this week, so I'll be all over that with LSU/Georgia and then again later for the glut of Pac-12 action. It'll get crazy. Sit back and let the insanity wash over you like a fine breeze or the knowledge of your own insignificance.
Friday
-The most competitive meets on Friday will probably end up being Missouri/Kentucky and Minnesota/Nebraska. The higher-ranked team will be favored in both, but upset potential exists. I'm particularly curious to see how Missouri fares away from home after that unexpectedly huge score last weekend. The next away meet is always the best test of how realistic home scores are.
-Among the big girls, Alabama against Auburn is the showcase on Friday. Apparently, this is kind of a rivalry or something, but in spite of meeting three times last season and this already being the second meeting of 2016, Auburn is still yet to record a victory against Alabama since turning good. At home and coming off a season-high, this is the best chance they'll have. That said, Alabama should win the meet and is the better team on every event, but that doesn't mean it will be a blowout. The Tide has displayed inconsistency this season, and while there haven't been any implosions since the loss to Arkansas, counting medium mistakes or weak landings has become commonplace, including on two of the four events in the last meet. Relying on those mistakes will be Auburn's hope.
Alabama has two meets this weekend, so I wouldn't necessarily expect to get any answers about postseason lineups quite yet. Dana has been jumbling people all over the place and will likely do the same this time in order to keep everyone relatively rested and avoid over-pressing the fragile ones. I would bet on more depth exploration for the time being.
We should also be on Beers Watch 2016, not just because it's important to start drinking during beam but because even though Lauren Beers has competed a remarkable amount for someone who spent the preseason in several pieces in a shoebox, she has been very up-and-down, occasionally starting to look like herself and then immediately falling a bunch of times. How much will they push her in a double-meet weekend, and will we see GoodBeers or DarthBeers?
March 31, 2015
Ames Regional Preview
We're into the second half of the regional previews now, and this is where the dynamic usually changes a little bit. In the top-seeded regionals, we often have one favorite and then a scraping, clawing, vicious-but-we're-all-best-friends-here fight for the next spot between relatively equivalent contenders. But in the regionals led by the 4th–6th seeds, we're more likely to see two clear favorites and then some possible outside challengers who might make things interesting if the day goes well (and by "day goes well," I mean "a big team has an epic meltdown"). The 2015 season has presented a little more competitiveness among those 16-20th ranked teams, which will hopefully make these regionals closer, but in each one there's still a clear pair that really should advance with a hit meet. Here, that's LSU and Nebraska.
Competing teams (starting event)
LSU (bars)
Nebraska (bye before bars)
Denver (beam)
Washington (bye before floor)
Michigan State (vault)
Iowa State (floor)
LSU and Nebraska
Weirdly, LSU suddenly fell to 4th in the rankings at the very end of the regular season after spending months bouncing back and forth between 2nd and 3rd. That little drop is almost entirely because of road scores, with the Tigers having not yet reached the 197.500 plateau at a road meet. That's a bit surprising for a team that is comfortably breaking that mark at home and seems to have more than enough talent to do it consistently regardless of venue. Something always just seems to go a little wibbly, like the bars rotation against Centenary or that tight beam performance at SECs. Like the other top teams, I don't envision LSU running into any trouble at this regional, but proving the ability to get something like a high 197 at a road meet would be a nice bonus.
That huge road score should be doable, especially given the current progress on vault and floor, but it will also take finding those bars landings and fully reaching potential on beam. I'm hoping the beam performance from SECs was just a "things suddenly mattered and our brains went momentarily to jelly" kind of rotation that will not be repeated, but bars remains a curious creature. With fewer huge, automatic 9.9s, and an Ashleigh Gnat routine that still makes me mostly nervous, the Tigers are in danger of giving up some real ground to the other top teams, especially Florida. But they can avoid that fate and get the requisite 9.9s to maintain a solid pace when Jordan, Zamardi, and Wyrick manage to stick. Those three routines are usually in the 9.850-but-9.900-if-you-land-well category. It's just something to keep in mind because this will be a "hit and you're in" kind of meet for LSU. Or a "count a fall and you're still in" kind of meet.
It should also be a "hit and you're in" meet for Nebraska, though it's a less comfortable status. The Huskers have a too-recent history of being the team that has the epic meltdown and gets eliminated by a 196.025 from Illinois. That said, Nebraska has hit 197 plenty of times this year (though only once on the road) while none of the lower-four seeds have reached the 197 plateau. That means advancing is well within Nebraska's control as long as we don't discover any problems in sector beam. Beam is still an excellent-or-terrifying event for Nebraska, nothing in between, and all the 9.7s from Big Tens didn't do anything to swing the pendulum toward the excellent side. The Huskers are another team that has scored more 48s than 49s on beam this season, but the weird thing is, they've counted a fall only twice, which is not that bad. The bigger problem has been a spate of wobbleburgers from the whole team for a 48.9. They can certainly get through this meet with a mildly iffy 48.9 beam as long as the rest of the events are hit, but any kind of 48 on beam at nationals will not cut it. We need to see some budding confidence and security in those performances.
Competing teams (starting event)
LSU (bars)
Nebraska (bye before bars)
Denver (beam)
Washington (bye before floor)
Michigan State (vault)
Iowa State (floor)
LSU and Nebraska
Weirdly, LSU suddenly fell to 4th in the rankings at the very end of the regular season after spending months bouncing back and forth between 2nd and 3rd. That little drop is almost entirely because of road scores, with the Tigers having not yet reached the 197.500 plateau at a road meet. That's a bit surprising for a team that is comfortably breaking that mark at home and seems to have more than enough talent to do it consistently regardless of venue. Something always just seems to go a little wibbly, like the bars rotation against Centenary or that tight beam performance at SECs. Like the other top teams, I don't envision LSU running into any trouble at this regional, but proving the ability to get something like a high 197 at a road meet would be a nice bonus.
That huge road score should be doable, especially given the current progress on vault and floor, but it will also take finding those bars landings and fully reaching potential on beam. I'm hoping the beam performance from SECs was just a "things suddenly mattered and our brains went momentarily to jelly" kind of rotation that will not be repeated, but bars remains a curious creature. With fewer huge, automatic 9.9s, and an Ashleigh Gnat routine that still makes me mostly nervous, the Tigers are in danger of giving up some real ground to the other top teams, especially Florida. But they can avoid that fate and get the requisite 9.9s to maintain a solid pace when Jordan, Zamardi, and Wyrick manage to stick. Those three routines are usually in the 9.850-but-9.900-if-you-land-well category. It's just something to keep in mind because this will be a "hit and you're in" kind of meet for LSU. Or a "count a fall and you're still in" kind of meet.
It should also be a "hit and you're in" meet for Nebraska, though it's a less comfortable status. The Huskers have a too-recent history of being the team that has the epic meltdown and gets eliminated by a 196.025 from Illinois. That said, Nebraska has hit 197 plenty of times this year (though only once on the road) while none of the lower-four seeds have reached the 197 plateau. That means advancing is well within Nebraska's control as long as we don't discover any problems in sector beam. Beam is still an excellent-or-terrifying event for Nebraska, nothing in between, and all the 9.7s from Big Tens didn't do anything to swing the pendulum toward the excellent side. The Huskers are another team that has scored more 48s than 49s on beam this season, but the weird thing is, they've counted a fall only twice, which is not that bad. The bigger problem has been a spate of wobbleburgers from the whole team for a 48.9. They can certainly get through this meet with a mildly iffy 48.9 beam as long as the rest of the events are hit, but any kind of 48 on beam at nationals will not cut it. We need to see some budding confidence and security in those performances.
April 1, 2014
Seattle, WA Regional Preview
Usually we have at least a couple unseeded teams hosting a regional or two, but this year Washington is the only one, having managed to just outstrip the regionals cutoff and make it in. They'll invite Alabama and Nebraska to their humble abode to do battle with plucky challengers Boise State and Denver, beginning at 7 ET/4 PT. This is the west coast regional, so couldn't we have started it a bit later to spread out the competitions a little more? How do they expect us to watch six meets in a day if they're all at the same time?
Competing teams (staring event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[9] Nebraska (bye before floor)
[16] Boise State (vault)
[20] Denver (floor)
[25] BYU (bars)
[33] Washington (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from Sacramento State (Jesse Williams, Kalliah McCartney, Kailey Hansen - vault, beam, and floor, Julia Konner - vault, Kaila Kilwien - bars, Kayla Wonderly - beam, Dallas Smith - floor), Alaska (Stefany Bryan), and Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley - vault, bars, and beam, Tracie Villanueva - bars, Kailee Tindall - floor). Sacramento State has a Kayla, a Kailey, a Kaila, and a Kalliah. The end.
The Favorites
This regional sets up a little differently from the previous ones in that there's a bit more separation between the top seeds and the contending seeds, with Alabama and Nebraska both looking like safe bets to advance. That's not to say the other teams can't manage something interesting (we'll get to them in a moment), but Alabama is on a roll and Nebraska is situated much better in this regional to avenge last year's misery than their colleague Oregon State is over in the Penn State group. Both Alabama and Nebraska should be able to perform normally in this meet and advance by a healthy margin.
For much of the season, Alabama has been running a step behind the lead pack, so winning SECs continued the dissolution of that gap between them and the top teams and allowed them to jump comfortably into the group of favorites once we get to nationals. They're now starting to look like a team that can win a championship without help. The SEC win wasn't without questions, with the Tide finishing just a small margin ahead of Florida and receiving some scores that I would deem extra friendly here and there (9.900 for Sims on beam and 9.950 on bars? Two judges giving Milliner a 10 for a non-stick?). But no other team looked definitively better, and Florida made more than its share of errors on a couple events. That tends to diffuse any righteous outrage. Alabama had several highlight routines during SECs, one of the most important being Kim Jacob on vault continuing the progression of her 1.5 with a stick. She has been a borderline member of the vault lineup for years, showing a full that wasn't as big as the usual Alabama fulls and a 1.5 that never had enough landing control to get a big score. If she can continue vaulting like this, it gives Alabama another asset that we didn't necessarily expect coming into the season on an event that needs to be a best-in-the-meet strength come Super Six.
The Tide scored a 49.650 on bars at SECs, and the big question is whether that's for real. There was a lot going into that score, being in Birmingham and finishing on bars, and I did think Florida and Georgia looked a clear step better on the event based on the routines we saw in the broadcast. But if that's how these routines are going to be evaluated as we progress, there isn't much of a limit to what Alabama can accomplish this season. Interestingly, beam was the clear weak event for Alabama at SECs, with some stepping and shakiness that we haven't seen very often this season, but as with some of Florida's mistakes, it's not a trend yet. Still, watch the bars at regionals. They'll tell us stories.
Competing teams (staring event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[9] Nebraska (bye before floor)
[16] Boise State (vault)
[20] Denver (floor)
[25] BYU (bars)
[33] Washington (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from Sacramento State (Jesse Williams, Kalliah McCartney, Kailey Hansen - vault, beam, and floor, Julia Konner - vault, Kaila Kilwien - bars, Kayla Wonderly - beam, Dallas Smith - floor), Alaska (Stefany Bryan), and Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley - vault, bars, and beam, Tracie Villanueva - bars, Kailee Tindall - floor). Sacramento State has a Kayla, a Kailey, a Kaila, and a Kalliah. The end.
The Favorites
This regional sets up a little differently from the previous ones in that there's a bit more separation between the top seeds and the contending seeds, with Alabama and Nebraska both looking like safe bets to advance. That's not to say the other teams can't manage something interesting (we'll get to them in a moment), but Alabama is on a roll and Nebraska is situated much better in this regional to avenge last year's misery than their colleague Oregon State is over in the Penn State group. Both Alabama and Nebraska should be able to perform normally in this meet and advance by a healthy margin.
For much of the season, Alabama has been running a step behind the lead pack, so winning SECs continued the dissolution of that gap between them and the top teams and allowed them to jump comfortably into the group of favorites once we get to nationals. They're now starting to look like a team that can win a championship without help. The SEC win wasn't without questions, with the Tide finishing just a small margin ahead of Florida and receiving some scores that I would deem extra friendly here and there (9.900 for Sims on beam and 9.950 on bars? Two judges giving Milliner a 10 for a non-stick?). But no other team looked definitively better, and Florida made more than its share of errors on a couple events. That tends to diffuse any righteous outrage. Alabama had several highlight routines during SECs, one of the most important being Kim Jacob on vault continuing the progression of her 1.5 with a stick. She has been a borderline member of the vault lineup for years, showing a full that wasn't as big as the usual Alabama fulls and a 1.5 that never had enough landing control to get a big score. If she can continue vaulting like this, it gives Alabama another asset that we didn't necessarily expect coming into the season on an event that needs to be a best-in-the-meet strength come Super Six.
The Tide scored a 49.650 on bars at SECs, and the big question is whether that's for real. There was a lot going into that score, being in Birmingham and finishing on bars, and I did think Florida and Georgia looked a clear step better on the event based on the routines we saw in the broadcast. But if that's how these routines are going to be evaluated as we progress, there isn't much of a limit to what Alabama can accomplish this season. Interestingly, beam was the clear weak event for Alabama at SECs, with some stepping and shakiness that we haven't seen very often this season, but as with some of Florida's mistakes, it's not a trend yet. Still, watch the bars at regionals. They'll tell us stories.
April 2, 2013
Tuscaloosa Regional Preview
Alabama hosts our third regional, which begins at 6:00 CT, so it will be one of the last to finish. Unfortunately, I don't expect it to be that close, but if it is, at least it won't be overshadowed by all six meets going on at the same time.
Rotation order (starting event):
[3] Alabama (vault)
[9] Utah (bye before bars)
[15] Denver (bye before floor)
[23] Kent State (floor)
[30] BYU (bars)
[35] Iowa State (beam)
The Favorites
The tale grows a bit dull as we head into a third regional of the same, but Alabama, like Florida and Oklahoma, is about as locked as a lock can be to advance out of regionals. That's what happens when the top seeds host. It becomes that much less likely that they will even finish second let alone be upset. In the future, the NCAA should avoid selecting all the best schools to host in the same year.
Alabama has been surging and will feel quite pleased about finishing only one tenth (before penalty) behind Florida at SECs while competing without Ashley Sledge. The vaults are crazy powerful, and with the landings improving each week, the event is becoming an easy 49.500. There are individual blips here and there in the beam and floor rotations but nothing that would account for any fundamental disadvantage to Florida.
Rotation order (starting event):
[3] Alabama (vault)
[9] Utah (bye before bars)
[15] Denver (bye before floor)
[23] Kent State (floor)
[30] BYU (bars)
[35] Iowa State (beam)
The Favorites
The tale grows a bit dull as we head into a third regional of the same, but Alabama, like Florida and Oklahoma, is about as locked as a lock can be to advance out of regionals. That's what happens when the top seeds host. It becomes that much less likely that they will even finish second let alone be upset. In the future, the NCAA should avoid selecting all the best schools to host in the same year.
Alabama has been surging and will feel quite pleased about finishing only one tenth (before penalty) behind Florida at SECs while competing without Ashley Sledge. The vaults are crazy powerful, and with the landings improving each week, the event is becoming an easy 49.500. There are individual blips here and there in the beam and floor rotations but nothing that would account for any fundamental disadvantage to Florida.
April 3, 2012
Champaign Regional Preview
The second preview on the docket features our #2 national seed, the Oklahoma Sooners, traveling to Illinois in an effort to earn their place in yet another National Championship. Along with [2] Oklahoma, the teams competing in this Regional are [11] Stanford, [14] Denver, [22] Illinois, [24] Kentucky, and [32] Illinois-Chicago.
The Favorite:
For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.
However, like Florida, I don't see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they're still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.
When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.
But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma's lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.
The Favorite:
For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.
However, like Florida, I don't see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they're still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.
When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.
But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma's lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.
January 2, 2012
Get. Ready.
As always, the start of the season has snuck up on us, and it's now only four days away. Here's a look at what's happening this weekend so you can plan accordingly:
- Friday: The season begins, and I will be live blogging the broadcast of Florida @ NC State at 7 ET / 4 PT. Special attention will be paid to Florida's preparation schedule. I don't need to see a 197 this week. I'll also be following the scores of Denver @ Georgia and making completely unfounded comments about Shayla's performance level.
- Saturday: Oklahoma has a quad meet away that they should win easily. Note who is making lineups right now and how they are attempting to compensate for Natasha Kelley.
- Sunday: I'll be back to live blog Utah @ UCLA at 5 ET / 2 PT. This should be the closest and most interesting meet of the weekend. How are Mattie and Vanessa coming along? Does Utah have enough star performances to contend? Is Tiffany Hyland going to get all the water bottles in time?
Meets of note:
Friday – 1/6/12
6:30 ET / 3:30 PT – Washington @ Michigan State
7:00 ET / 4:00 PT – Florida @ NC State
7:30 ET / 4:30 PT – Denver @ Georgia
8:00 ET / 5:00 PT – Cancun Classic – (Arkansas, LSU, Iowa, Auburn, Arizona, San Jose St.)
8:00 ET / 5:00 PT – Cancun Classic – (Arkansas, LSU, Iowa, Auburn, Arizona, San Jose St.)
10:00 ET / 7:00 PT – UC Davis @ Arizona State
Saturday – 1/7/12
6:00 ET / 3:00 PT – Oklahoma, Bowling Green, Wisconsin-Oshkosh @ Kentucky
7:00 ET / 4:00 PT – Ohio State @ Minnesota
Sunday – 1/8/12
2:00 ET / 11:00 PT – Penn State, Maryland @ West Virginia
3:00 ET / 12:00 PT – Iowa State @ Missouri
5:00 ET / 2:00 PT – Utah @ UCLA
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