December 8, 2012
#12 Arkansas Preview
In the preseason poll, coaches usually are not too sensitive to individual changes in team rosters, but they certainly have taken Jaime Pisani's departure into account this year, dropping Arkansas all the way down to #12 after a Super Six performance in 2012. This is the lowest ranking for a team that made Super Six the previous season since Iowa State was ranked #13 in the 2007 preseason poll. It is, however, warranted.
While Arkansas had, in many respects, the best season in the school history last year, recording program-best totals and ascending to #1 for a short period, the Razorbacks fell off toward the end of the season and needed a Georgia implosion to qualify to Super Six. Without Pisani's scoring leadership, it will be difficult for the team to put itself in the same position this year, relying on Katherine Grable as the only proven 9.900 gymnast on the team.
Fortunately for Arkansas, important AAer Jordan Salsberg will be returning from her knee injury. However, she's still wearing a brace in intrasquad videos, so it remains to be seen how much she will be able to contribute right now and on which events. In the unfortunate department, Scarlett Williams is out for the season, which puts more pressure on the vault and beam lineups with only eleven possible gymnasts, some of whom should not be allowed near the events. Let's take a look at the team's prospects event by event.
December 3, 2012
2013 Preseason Coaches' Poll
Just in case you were wondering, the apostrophe in coaches' poll is optional. One could argue that the coaches have ownership of the poll (in which case the apostrophe is necessary to indicate the possessive), or one could argue that coaches is simply an adjective describing the type of poll (in which case no apostrophe would be included). I'm using the apostrophe because that seems to be the accepted convention.
The poll is bizarre and unrealistic in places as always, but I'm not that worked up about it. Not that worked up about it. Poll available at Troester.
2013 Preseason Coaches' Poll:
1. Alabama (11 first-place votes)
2. UCLA (5)
3. Florida (10)
4. Oklahoma (1)
5. Utah (1)
6. Stanford
7. Nebraska
8. LSU
9. Oregon State
10. Michigan
11. Georgia
12. Arkansas
13. Auburn
14. Ohio State
15. Boise State
16. Penn State
17. Washington
18. Illinois
19. Arizona
20. Denver
21. Missouri
22. NC State
23. Minnesota
24. West Virginia
25. Kentucky
Let's start at the beginning.
The poll is bizarre and unrealistic in places as always, but I'm not that worked up about it. Not that worked up about it. Poll available at Troester.
2013 Preseason Coaches' Poll:
1. Alabama (11 first-place votes)
2. UCLA (5)
3. Florida (10)
4. Oklahoma (1)
5. Utah (1)
6. Stanford
7. Nebraska
8. LSU
9. Oregon State
10. Michigan
11. Georgia
12. Arkansas
13. Auburn
14. Ohio State
15. Boise State
16. Penn State
17. Washington
18. Illinois
19. Arizona
20. Denver
21. Missouri
22. NC State
23. Minnesota
24. West Virginia
25. Kentucky
Let's start at the beginning.
December 2, 2012
Balance Beam Situation Preseason Ranking
The annual preseason coaches' poll will be released in the days of soon, so in advance of that completely opposite-of-important event that I look forward to dissecting, I have compiled my own preseason ranking. Please take it as official, scientific, and unimpeachable.
I ranked only fifteen teams instead of twenty-five because of buuuuh, but also once we get into that Missouri, Illinois, Denver, Minnesota, Boise St. group of teams that are all poised to finish a distant third in various regionals, the difference between the teams is so minimal that there would be no legitimate reasoning behind ranking one ahead of another. They will be separated as the season progresses based on consistency and luck with injuries.
So, here we go.
1. Florida
The Gators are the most talented team in the country. I don't see any valid argument against putting them at #1. With Sloan and B. Caquatto joining Hunter, King, Dickerson, Johnson, and M. Caquatto, this team will have 9.900s to spare and will be able to absorb whatever latest injury has befallen one of the Caquattuses. While the other top contenders will excel on vault and floor, look for Florida to be nearly unstoppable on bars with consistent 49.500+ rotations that won't be matched even by the second tier of contenders.
2. Alabama
I flipped and flopped about Alabama and UCLA in the second and third positions, and I do think they are essentially interchangeable here, but I put Alabama ahead because the group as a whole is safer. We know what we're going to get from each of the Alabama gymnasts, and that means a lot of 9.900s and very few falls. The loss of Stack-Eaton is a hit, especially on bars, but the team should be able to withstand it.
3. UCLA
UCLA, as always, could be great this season, but I would have a lot more confidence in that proclamation with a healthy Peng Peng Lee and a fully contributing Mattie Larson (one who doesn't get ranked below an injured Syd Sawa on floor reliability). I am concerned that this season will become about Zamarripa, Peszek, and their merry band of 9.850s, and if it does, there is little chance of a UCLA championship. There are a lot of supporting actresses on this team (the incoming class is full of them), but they need to start taking lead roles with 9.900s on multiple events.
4. Oklahoma
The Sooners have proven that they are the heirs apparent to the mantle of best team never to win a championship, and I expect them to put up yet another season full of mid-197 scores. The 2013 team will be better on vault than the 2012 team was, which eliminates a major weakness, but we've yet to see if anyone can take on that Megan Ferguson responsibility. With the new freshmen and the injury returners, the Sooners should be able to repeat the successes of 2010 and 2011, but can they go any higher with this group of gymnasts? It may still take another season or two before this team can legitimately compete for a title.
I ranked only fifteen teams instead of twenty-five because of buuuuh, but also once we get into that Missouri, Illinois, Denver, Minnesota, Boise St. group of teams that are all poised to finish a distant third in various regionals, the difference between the teams is so minimal that there would be no legitimate reasoning behind ranking one ahead of another. They will be separated as the season progresses based on consistency and luck with injuries.
So, here we go.
1. Florida
The Gators are the most talented team in the country. I don't see any valid argument against putting them at #1. With Sloan and B. Caquatto joining Hunter, King, Dickerson, Johnson, and M. Caquatto, this team will have 9.900s to spare and will be able to absorb whatever latest injury has befallen one of the Caquattuses. While the other top contenders will excel on vault and floor, look for Florida to be nearly unstoppable on bars with consistent 49.500+ rotations that won't be matched even by the second tier of contenders.
2. Alabama
I flipped and flopped about Alabama and UCLA in the second and third positions, and I do think they are essentially interchangeable here, but I put Alabama ahead because the group as a whole is safer. We know what we're going to get from each of the Alabama gymnasts, and that means a lot of 9.900s and very few falls. The loss of Stack-Eaton is a hit, especially on bars, but the team should be able to withstand it.
3. UCLA
UCLA, as always, could be great this season, but I would have a lot more confidence in that proclamation with a healthy Peng Peng Lee and a fully contributing Mattie Larson (one who doesn't get ranked below an injured Syd Sawa on floor reliability). I am concerned that this season will become about Zamarripa, Peszek, and their merry band of 9.850s, and if it does, there is little chance of a UCLA championship. There are a lot of supporting actresses on this team (the incoming class is full of them), but they need to start taking lead roles with 9.900s on multiple events.
4. Oklahoma
The Sooners have proven that they are the heirs apparent to the mantle of best team never to win a championship, and I expect them to put up yet another season full of mid-197 scores. The 2013 team will be better on vault than the 2012 team was, which eliminates a major weakness, but we've yet to see if anyone can take on that Megan Ferguson responsibility. With the new freshmen and the injury returners, the Sooners should be able to repeat the successes of 2010 and 2011, but can they go any higher with this group of gymnasts? It may still take another season or two before this team can legitimately compete for a title.
November 25, 2012
The Latest from Training Part 2: Revenge of the Training
FLORIDA
Vault and beam
IDs: Shisler VT, Stageberg BB, Wang VT, M. Caquatto BB, Spicer VT, Johnson BB, Sloan VT, Dickerson BB, King VT, B. Caquatto BB, Hunter VT, Spicer BB, Lemezan VT
IDs: Sloan BB, Stageberg VT, Hunter BB, M. Caquatto VT, King BB, Johnson VT, Wang BB, Dickerson VT, Shisler BB
Bars and floor
IDs: Stageberg FX, Dancose-Giambattisto UB, Sloan FX, Dickerson UB, King FX, M. Caquatto UB, Hunter FX, Johnson UB, King UB, Wang FX, Hunter UB, Dickerson FX, Sloan UB, Shisler FX, Johnson FX
OKLAHOMA
Vault and beam
IDs: Shisler VT, Stageberg BB, Wang VT, M. Caquatto BB, Spicer VT, Johnson BB, Sloan VT, Dickerson BB, King VT, B. Caquatto BB, Hunter VT, Spicer BB, Lemezan VT
IDs: Sloan BB, Stageberg VT, Hunter BB, M. Caquatto VT, King BB, Johnson VT, Wang BB, Dickerson VT, Shisler BB
Bars and floor
IDs: Stageberg FX, Dancose-Giambattisto UB, Sloan FX, Dickerson UB, King FX, M. Caquatto UB, Hunter FX, Johnson UB, King UB, Wang FX, Hunter UB, Dickerson FX, Sloan UB, Shisler FX, Johnson FX
OKLAHOMA
November 24, 2012
The Latest from Training
UCLA
Vanessa Zamarripa is planning to return to elite. We'll see. Her gymnastics is so easy to root for, but she will have a tough road from now until next fall. I'm encouraged that she's training for it now, but in 2010 she was not up to the level of competition on beam and floor. Three years and an Achilles tear won't make it any easier to be competitive there. Specializing on vault and bars may be a prudent choice depending on her goals.
If she is serious about making a Worlds team, 2013 is her year because she could conceivably be selected solely for vault, especially if no one else is vaulting two viable vaults. Even to make the team as a vault specialist, though, she's going to need to get the Cheng back (and make it consistent) and upgrade to a DTY to be worth taking. We haven't seen more than a Yurchenko full from her in competition, so we can't just assume a DTY. That vault program is not a given.
Gymnastike has this labeled as Zamarripa's 2013 NCAA routine, but I assume this is a midway work-in-progress routine somewhere between NCAA and elite. It currently doesn't have a turning element, but regardless of that it is needlessly complex for NCAA, with skills like the clear hip after the shaposh that take away from Zamarripa's cleanliness, yet too simple to be competitive in elite.
Alyssa Pritchett is planning a double double on floor. Never trust a preseason upgrade (competition or it didn't happen), but Pritchett's old routine was always going to be in the 9.850 area when hit. Her tuck full was not perfect, so this could be a smart move if it materializes because the judges may decide to give her a difficulty hall pass, which could see her recording some 9.900s away from home.
UTAH
Vault and Bars
Vanessa Zamarripa is planning to return to elite. We'll see. Her gymnastics is so easy to root for, but she will have a tough road from now until next fall. I'm encouraged that she's training for it now, but in 2010 she was not up to the level of competition on beam and floor. Three years and an Achilles tear won't make it any easier to be competitive there. Specializing on vault and bars may be a prudent choice depending on her goals.
If she is serious about making a Worlds team, 2013 is her year because she could conceivably be selected solely for vault, especially if no one else is vaulting two viable vaults. Even to make the team as a vault specialist, though, she's going to need to get the Cheng back (and make it consistent) and upgrade to a DTY to be worth taking. We haven't seen more than a Yurchenko full from her in competition, so we can't just assume a DTY. That vault program is not a given.
Gymnastike has this labeled as Zamarripa's 2013 NCAA routine, but I assume this is a midway work-in-progress routine somewhere between NCAA and elite. It currently doesn't have a turning element, but regardless of that it is needlessly complex for NCAA, with skills like the clear hip after the shaposh that take away from Zamarripa's cleanliness, yet too simple to be competitive in elite.
Alyssa Pritchett is planning a double double on floor. Never trust a preseason upgrade (competition or it didn't happen), but Pritchett's old routine was always going to be in the 9.850 area when hit. Her tuck full was not perfect, so this could be a smart move if it materializes because the judges may decide to give her a difficulty hall pass, which could see her recording some 9.900s away from home.
UTAH
Vault and Bars
November 18, 2012
Fear the Beam 2012
The balance beam, she is a cruel mistress.
In 2011, I examined her cruelty by analyzing how teams fared when performing beam routines after a fall earlier in the rotation. The study yielded the following breakthrough: everything is horrible. Nearly every team had significant difficulty breaking 9.800 in those post-fall routines, often suffering a subsequent fall (or two).
But what's this? A ray of hope? For this past season, I analyzed the same data for the schools that qualified to Championships, averaging the scores for all routines performed on beam at any point after a fall or fall-equivalent performance (a score of 9.500 or lower), and found significantly stronger results across the country. In fact, beam was the lowest-scoring apparatus for a grand total of none of the teams during this year's Super Six, and most teams put up respectable numbers over the course of the season.
Average beam score after a fall – 2012
1. Florida – 9.885
2. Alabama – 9.841
3. Oklahoma – 9.869
4. Utah – 9.814
5. Arkansas – 9.809
6. UCLA – 9.808
7. Ohio State – 9.780
8. Oregon State – 9.769
9. Georgia – 9.725
10. Nebraska – 9.722
11. Stanford – 9.700
12. LSU – 9.688
For comparison, last year's leader, Utah, would have placed 7th in this year's rankings. In fact, compared to last season, Georgia and Stanford are the only schools analyzed in both lists that regressed in their performances. Georgia actually did pretty well on beam through most of 2012, but the disaster from Championships brought the average down significantly.
Florida managed a stellar 9.885 and did not record a post-fall beam score lower than 9.850 all year. Now, the Gators did perform only 5 routines after falls all year, so they did not have as many opportunities to ruin everything.
Number of beam routines after falls – 2012
1. Florida – 5
2. Oklahoma – 8
3. Stanford – 10
4. Georgia - 12
5. Alabama – 14
6. Utah – 20
7. Oregon State – 22
8. Arkansas – 25
9. UCLA – 26
10. LSU – 31
11. Ohio State – 32
12. Nebraska – 38
The difference in consistency is slightly amazing. Rare was the week that Nebraska or Ohio State was not fighting an early fall. Nebraska performed 78 beam routines as a team last year, and 38 (49%) of those routines took place after someone else had already fallen.
In theory, these first two lists should match up almost exactly because the best teams on beam will suffer the fewest falls and record the highest scores overall, but as we see that's not always true. For instance, our regressed schools Stanford and Georgia performed relatively few routines after beam falls but fared rather poorly in those routines. Arkansas and UCLA, however, maintained relatively strong averages considering how many pressure-filled beam routines they were forced to perform.
Interestingly, our individual standouts did not always come from the strongest teams.
In 2011, I examined her cruelty by analyzing how teams fared when performing beam routines after a fall earlier in the rotation. The study yielded the following breakthrough: everything is horrible. Nearly every team had significant difficulty breaking 9.800 in those post-fall routines, often suffering a subsequent fall (or two).
But what's this? A ray of hope? For this past season, I analyzed the same data for the schools that qualified to Championships, averaging the scores for all routines performed on beam at any point after a fall or fall-equivalent performance (a score of 9.500 or lower), and found significantly stronger results across the country. In fact, beam was the lowest-scoring apparatus for a grand total of none of the teams during this year's Super Six, and most teams put up respectable numbers over the course of the season.
Average beam score after a fall – 2012
1. Florida – 9.885
2. Alabama – 9.841
3. Oklahoma – 9.869
4. Utah – 9.814
5. Arkansas – 9.809
6. UCLA – 9.808
7. Ohio State – 9.780
8. Oregon State – 9.769
9. Georgia – 9.725
10. Nebraska – 9.722
11. Stanford – 9.700
12. LSU – 9.688
For comparison, last year's leader, Utah, would have placed 7th in this year's rankings. In fact, compared to last season, Georgia and Stanford are the only schools analyzed in both lists that regressed in their performances. Georgia actually did pretty well on beam through most of 2012, but the disaster from Championships brought the average down significantly.
Florida managed a stellar 9.885 and did not record a post-fall beam score lower than 9.850 all year. Now, the Gators did perform only 5 routines after falls all year, so they did not have as many opportunities to ruin everything.
Number of beam routines after falls – 2012
1. Florida – 5
2. Oklahoma – 8
3. Stanford – 10
4. Georgia - 12
5. Alabama – 14
6. Utah – 20
7. Oregon State – 22
8. Arkansas – 25
9. UCLA – 26
10. LSU – 31
11. Ohio State – 32
12. Nebraska – 38
The difference in consistency is slightly amazing. Rare was the week that Nebraska or Ohio State was not fighting an early fall. Nebraska performed 78 beam routines as a team last year, and 38 (49%) of those routines took place after someone else had already fallen.
In theory, these first two lists should match up almost exactly because the best teams on beam will suffer the fewest falls and record the highest scores overall, but as we see that's not always true. For instance, our regressed schools Stanford and Georgia performed relatively few routines after beam falls but fared rather poorly in those routines. Arkansas and UCLA, however, maintained relatively strong averages considering how many pressure-filled beam routines they were forced to perform.
Interestingly, our individual standouts did not always come from the strongest teams.
November 13, 2012
NLI Week
Starting Wednesday, we will begin to receive the official announcements of gymnasts signing their National Letters of Intent for the 2013-2014 season. The signing period lasts until November 21st.
Most of this information is already available because of verbal commitments (and the list can be seen here), but there are always a few talking points once the press releases come out. This will also give us an opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses in each team's recruiting classes moving beyond this season.
I will compile the release links for the major teams here as the week progresses.
Alabama - Release
Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey
Florida - Release
Claire Boyce, Silvia Colussi-Pelaez, and Morgan Frazier
UCLA - Release
Hallie Mossett and Angela Cipra
Oklahoma - Release
McKenzie Wofford, Charity Jones, Kara Lovan, Chayse Capps, and Reagan Hemry
Georgia - Release
Ashlyn Broussard, Kiera Brown, Rachel Schick, and Morgan Reynolds
Utah - Release
Baely Rowe
Stanford - Release
Sophia Lee, Rachel Daum, and Carinne Gale
Arkansas - Release
Samantha Nelson, Paris Ryder, and Amanda Wellick
Oregon State - Release
Megan Jimenez, Kana Kobayashi, Kaytianna McMillian, and Taylor Ricci
LSU - Release
Ashleigh Gnat and Shonacee Oliva.
Ohio State - Release
Tenille Funches, Anna Hill, and Jaine' Van Putten
Michigan - Release
Talia Chiarelli
Illinois - Release
Mary Jane Horth, Erin Buchanan, and Sarah Lyons
Missouri - Release
Alyson Heimsath, Lark Pokladnik, and Sasha Sander
Auburn - Release
Mary Jane Rott and Kullen Hlawek
Washington - Release
Megan DeLallo, Alexandra Yavalis, Stephanie Stowe, Kaitlyn Duranczyk, and Jessica Nesis
Most of this information is already available because of verbal commitments (and the list can be seen here), but there are always a few talking points once the press releases come out. This will also give us an opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses in each team's recruiting classes moving beyond this season.
I will compile the release links for the major teams here as the week progresses.
Alabama - Release
Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey
Florida - Release
Claire Boyce, Silvia Colussi-Pelaez, and Morgan Frazier
UCLA - Release
Hallie Mossett and Angela Cipra
Oklahoma - Release
McKenzie Wofford, Charity Jones, Kara Lovan, Chayse Capps, and Reagan Hemry
Georgia - Release
Ashlyn Broussard, Kiera Brown, Rachel Schick, and Morgan Reynolds
Utah - Release
Baely Rowe
Stanford - Release
Sophia Lee, Rachel Daum, and Carinne Gale
Arkansas - Release
Samantha Nelson, Paris Ryder, and Amanda Wellick
Oregon State - Release
Megan Jimenez, Kana Kobayashi, Kaytianna McMillian, and Taylor Ricci
LSU - Release
Ashleigh Gnat and Shonacee Oliva.
Ohio State - Release
Tenille Funches, Anna Hill, and Jaine' Van Putten
Michigan - Release
Talia Chiarelli
Illinois - Release
Mary Jane Horth, Erin Buchanan, and Sarah Lyons
Missouri - Release
Alyson Heimsath, Lark Pokladnik, and Sasha Sander
Auburn - Release
Mary Jane Rott and Kullen Hlawek
Washington - Release
Megan DeLallo, Alexandra Yavalis, Stephanie Stowe, Kaitlyn Duranczyk, and Jessica Nesis
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