March 13, 2015

Friday Live Blog – Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, UCLA, Arkansas

Friday, March 13
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – TWU @ Florida (Scores) (SECN)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Pittsburgh, Ball State @ Kentucky (Scores) (SECN)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – George Washington @ Towson (Stream)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – NC State @ Missouri (Scores) (SECN
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Temple @ Iowa State (Scores)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – LSU, New Hampshire @ Centenary (Scores)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – UCLA @ Arkansas (Scores) (SECN)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – North Carolina @ Auburn (Scores) (SECN)
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – Oklahoma @ Alabama (Scores) (SECN)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Cal, Boise State @ Southern Utah (Scores) (Stream)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Air Force @ Arizona State (Scores) (Pac-12)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU @ Utah State (Scores)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Washington @ UC Davis (Scores)

Week 9 rankings (GymInfo)

We're on the home stretch now. This is the last Friday live blog of the season. Well, second to last. We still have semifinal day on April 17th, but that's different animal. Starting next weekend, it's all about the Saturdays as we head to conference championships and then regionals. 

I'll be here from 7:00 ET/4:00 PT, beginning with Florida's senior night meet against TWU. It's an SEC Network+ kind of night, with six separate meets going on.

March 12, 2015

The Weekend Ahead – March 13th-15th

It's the last weekend of normal meets, people. Fortunately, we've been presented with a worthy slate of action and a few top-10 clashes to mark this not-very-momentous-but-whatever occasion. There's still a lot of jockeying for Regionals placements to do this week, in addition to a couple meets where the winner is actually sort of in doubt (!), but one of the most interesting side stories this weekend will be the solidifying of final lineups. It's like an extreme sport, expect with a lot fewer motorcycles and a lot more columns drawn on pieces of paper. My kind of extreme sport. 

While there may still be some pre-championships strategic resting going on, especially for teams that have been loading in the big meets this month, most teams prefer to get their final lineups set by the time championship season arrives. That way, all the competitors have time to develop some level of comfort in their positions before it really matters. So, some of the lineups in which we've seen quite a bit of flux (Alabama's bars and floor, LSU's vault, UCLA's everything, a couple of the Florida lineups where Bridget Sloan has returned to shake things up) will be worth watching this weekend to see who's really in favor and who isn't. (I MEAN EVERYONE'S IN FAVOR BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL A TEAM OF SISTERS.)

In the rankings, Oklahoma is sitting pretty at #1, but Florida, LSU, and Utah are all extremely tightly bunched in the race for #2. Florida is currently in the lead position, but the Gators also have the highest score to drop with a 197.600, meaning they can gain the least. LSU is right behind with a 197.350 to drop, while Utah is in fourth but still has a 196.900 to drop. What this means is, for instance, if all three teams were to score a 198.000 this weekend (not outside the realm of possibility), Florida would come out with a 197.770 RQS, to LSU's 197.760, to Utah's 197.750. Couldn't really be much closer. Though all these teams are quite safe in the ever-important top-6 race to clinch a #1 seed at Regionals.

The current top 6 (Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Utah, Alabama, Michigan) are probably safe this weekend, though UCLA does have a shot at supplanting Michigan if the Wolverines score under 196.975 and the Bruins go 197.450+ at Arkansas. Possible. Of course, if Michigan does break 197 in Minnesota, then the required score for UCLA increases.



Because when you think of UCLA scoring a 197.450, you think of Peng.

In the hunt for those crucial top-18 seeded spots, all the teams from 17-20 (Arizona, Denver, Cal, Minnesota) are fairly close together and all have a mid-195 to get rid of this weekend. They're all more than capable of that score, so be on 196-watch for all those teams. Those who do it will be on the inside track to seedhood.

Now, let's talk meets. Friday's action begins with Florida hosting Texas Woman's University on senior night, so get your 10 banners out. It's Kytra Hunter's senior night. If she doesn't get at least two 10s, she will burn the vaulting table to the ground. Later on, UCLA heads to Arkansas. Doesn't it seem like UCLA is perpetually in Arkansas? Whenever Arkansas hosts a Regional, UCLA is in it, and now they're back. The Bruins should be able to win this one comfortably given their current form, but as was the case in Arkansas's face-off with Georgia last weekend, this meet will be within a fall of becoming a thing, especially since we're in Arkansas. The Bruins do appear to have finally hit upon a bars lineup that won't need to count 9.6s and a fairly trustworthy beam lineup, as far as UCLA beam goes, helped by the discovery of Sonya Meraz's sturdiness in the leadoff spot. As long as they have Sam Peszek's leap series worked out now (hint: switch leap + switch leap = no me gusta).

March 9, 2015

Week 9 Rankings and RQS Update

Remember back in ancient times last week when the pace of 10s had started to slow down? Me neither. There were a billion of them over the weekend. Welcome to senior night scoring. Expect more of the same this coming week. It's a little frustrating because when you're giving out 10s for vaults that aren't stuck just because it's a senior's last home meet, it cheapens the 10. It shouldn't just be a gesture. But it's also sort of hilarious. Not ha-ha hilarious, but more am-I-having-a-mental-collapse, is-this-even-a-real-sport hilarious.

Oklahoma won the weekend with a 198.500, which isn't quite at the level of the 198.8s that were being thrown out in 2004, but it is the highest score we've seen in a while in a meet featuring a downright alarming number of 9.9s for both sides. In all, four teams broke the 198 barrier this week, and UCLA came just short of making it five. These kids today with their 198s. Back in my time, if you wanted a 198, you had to get out the checkbook and buy it yourself. You know, the good old days.

Senior night scoring sure makes everyone seem amazing and ready for the postseason. That's not necessarily true, but the level of hitting does make me ready for championship season to see how it all plays out in less fanciful and creative circumstances. Hopefully, everything will come down to earth once we get to four judges, if for no other reason than the beautiful number of passive aggressive coach interviews we'll get whining about 9.850s. The best. 



For now, let's look at where everyone stands with one week of regular meets remaining before conference championships, with particular emphasis on possible ranking and RQS scenarios. The biggest news for now is that Georgia will not be able to pass Auburn before SEC Championships in Duluth, meaning that Auburn will be in the evening session and Georgia will be in the day session. A coup. I just hope that means there isn't a mass exodus of Georgia fans after the first session.

Week 9 Rankings (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.845
Week 9: 198.500
Week 9 leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman 9.950; UB - Dowell 9.950; BB - Brewer 10.000; FX - Scaman 10.000

RQS
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.875
Road Score 3: 197.700
Road/Home Score 1: 198.500
Road/Home Score 2: 197.850
Road/Home Score 3: 197.650

The Sooners have comfortably eclipsed their final RQS from 2014, which was 197.775, and can now set their sights on beating Florida's top RQS from last season, 197.895. They can do it with a 197.925 away at Alabama on Friday. Judging by last Friday's result and the presumed scoring situation we'll have in Alabama, that seems doable. The RQS record is UCLA's 198.055 from 2004, which is potentially within reach, but it would take a couple more 198s in the final two meets. Possible but tough. I'm excited for that Alabama meet. While the Sooners have had plenty of road meets, they haven't had any big-crowd, tough-environment road meets yet. And because their conference championship is relatively low key, and their Regional will be at home, this meet is a necessary hurdle before Nationals. 

2. Florida – 197.690
Week 9: 198.100
Week 9 leaders: AA - Hunter 39.750; VT - McMurtry 9.975; UB - Sloan 9.975; BB - Hunter 9.975; FX - Hunter, Caquatto 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 198.100
Road Score 2: 197.425
Road Score 3: 197.200
Road/Home Score 1: 198.225
Road/Home Score 2: 198.125
Road/Home Score 3: 197.600

In spite of that disastrously terrible garbage 198.100 in the loss to Oklahoma, the Gators used their several billion 9.975s to jump ahead of LSU for the moment and become the only team with three 198s so far this year. It's difficult to approach this meet from the perspective of what Florida needs to do improve on the loss because they got a 198. Um, stick more everything? Stop getting those hideous 9.875s. Bridget Sloan came back on beam, and everyone feels safer because of it. More 9.9s! She was in for Boyce this time, but I'm interested to see how some of these Boyce, Baker, Fassbender spots play out in the beam and bars lineups as we head toward SECs. It's not that usual to see Florida playing with lineups this late, but I like it. I'm always in favor of playing with lineups until the end rather than settling on what worked in February and assuming it will be the same. 

Florida will not be able to catch Oklahoma this week, but they do still have a 197.200 to get rid of at SECs, which should allow them to make a bit more of a challenge if they get two big results in a row. Expect senior night to be very senior night.

3. LSU – 197.630
Week 9: 198.375
Week 9 leaders: AA - Gnat 39.725; VT - Courville, Jordan 10.000; UB - Courville 9.925; BB - Gnat 9.925; FX - Hall 10.000

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 197.350
Road/Home Score 1: 198.375
Road/Home Score 2: 198.075
Road/Home Score 3: 197.950

That thing where you get a 198.375 and fall in the rankings. Because Florida was able to record a big road score and the Tigers were at home while holding three solid home scores already, they could not gain much ground. LSU is still lacking that huge road score to rely on, so this weekend they'll need to do exactly what Florida did against Oklahoma if they're to find a way to regain the #2 ranking, though a meet at Centenary doesn't really have that same rah-rah, big-team 9.975 atmosphere.

Courville sat out on beam and floor again this week, which was fine because LSU has enough depth on those events to survive comfortably, but I do think the bars lineup is a bit of a question. It was the weakest event on Friday, clearly feeling the lack of Wyrick and perhaps Ranzy. Ranzy is back on vault now, but if it's at all possible for her to get back on bars, it needs to happen. Gnat and Savona have made great strides, but are they part of the best six? 

March 7, 2015

Saturday Live Blog – UCLA, Stanford, Georgia, Arkansas

Now that everyone has recovered from the American Cup, where Simone Biles won by a million points, everyone got eaten by the pommel horse, dear sweet Oleg stole our hearts, Mykayla Skinner enjoyed some fancy execution scores, and Sam Mikulak continued being every boy you had a crush on when you were 15 in spite of falling twice, it's time to turn our attention back to NCAA for an interesting little Saturday of meets.

Georgia is at home, and it's time for the Gym Dogs to break out with a big 197. They have the gymnastics, at least on 3.5 of the events. They just need to bring it. Now or never. Well, now or next week. Or the week after. Or the week after that. Whatever. Arkansas is so good at getting that solid 196.3 (perhaps higher at a Georgia meet) that can destroy you if you're not on point through all four events.

It's Senior afternoon for Sam Peszek at Pauley, so if last night's senior-night enthusiasm is any indication, she will get a 40.000. Do the back with a full.

Flashback to "Samantha Pessik"


Both UCLA and Stanford appear to be rounding into form now that it's March, as they often do, but neither team should feel very comfortable with the current RQS standard. They'll need to keep up the not-bad today. No excuse for scoring under 197, right? I don't think there is.

March 6, 2015

Friday Live Blog – Michigan, Utah, Alabama, Auburn, LSU

Friday, March 6
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Arizona, Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State (Scores) (CSL)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Auburn @ Kentucky (Scores) (SECN)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Alabama @ Missouri (Scores) (SECN)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Centenary @ SEMO (Scores)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Florida @ Oklahoma (Scores)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Iowa State @ Iowa 
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – Minnesota @ LSU (Scores) (SECN)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Michigan @ Utah (Scores) (Pac-12)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Alaska @ Boise State (Scores) (Stream)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Central Michigan @ BYU (Scores)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Arizona State @ Southern Utah (Scores)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – NC State @ Washington (Scores) (Pac-12)

A glance at Minnesota before the Gophers take on LSU tonight:



Lots of senior nights tonight, so if you're a fan of people bursting into tears at the end of their floor routines, this is like your Christmas. I'll be here from 7:00 ET/4:00 PT.

March 5, 2015

The Weekend Ahead – March 6th-9th

Elite and NCAA in the same weekend. Worlds colliding. It's very disturbing. It's like two groups of friends meeting for the first time.

That's right, it's American Cup time. So get ready to watch Simone Biles take some names (so she can follow them on instagram) and watch the men look fairly unready to compete the all-around because it's March. Hooray! As always, the American Cup will be preceded by the annual Nastia Liukin NCAA Preview on Friday. The Nastia meet is always a useful glance at the gymnasts who are going to get 9.900s in a couple years, but as is tradition, it takes place at the exact same time as significant meets involving current, actual NCAA gymnasts. Sigh. Tomorrow is very much a multi-screen day. For our immediate purposes, a few of the Nastia competitors will be starting college next season, including Alicia Boren, who will be Florida's new star, Olivia Karas and Emma McLean of Michigan, Macy Toronjo of UCLA, and Makenna Merrell of Utah, so keep an eye on them.

In the rankings, Oklahoma will remain safe at #1. LSU and Florida are quite close together and will be fighting it out for the #2 spot, with the Gators having a slight advantage since they have the weaker score still to drop. Utah has a chance to challenge for a higher ranking but would need at least a 197.700 and some help from either Florida or LSU to move any higher than 4th. Beyond that, with two meets this weekend and a 196.175 to get rid of, Alabama looks the most primed to make a surge toward the top 4, with Auburn in a similarly advantageous position. Both teams should move up with anything resembling normal performances in their meets this weekend. 

It's also worth beginning to look at the top-36 Regionals cutoff. West Virginia is a little too close for comfort right now in 34th place, especially because they're slated to host a Regional this year. It would be rough if they fail to make the top 36. WVU's season high is just a 195.350, which doesn't cut it. They'll need something real against Penn State this Sunday. NC State and George Washington currently occupy the last two spots, with North Carolina, Utah State, and San Jose State all challenging, and we could still see some shifts among that group this weekend.



Friday begins with Auburn and Alabama on the road in what should be comfortable wins for both, but the meets still carry some significance. Auburn has a road 195 to get rid of and could jump right up to challenge #5 Michigan with a solid 197 performance. Alabama is coming off the kind of loss that makes Kayla Williams do Roza-Galieva-face and the whole team needs a mental recovery, not just with a win but with a big mid-197. In other action, LSU will take on Minnesota in a meet that is much more important for Minnesota than LSU. The Gophers are in desperate need of a road 196 to keep them solidly in the top 18 for seeding purposes.

But really, let's get to the good stuff. Florida. At Oklahoma. Yessssss. Clash of the titans. Last year may have ended in a tie, but as far as I'm concerned, this is the tiebreaker. Sadly, it's only available on one of those Fox Sports regional networks that I don't get, but I'm excited about it nonetheless. The Gators still have to prove that those huge 198s are not just a home phenomenon, and they'll probably need exactly that in order to beat Oklahoma in Oklahoma. Florida's highest road score so far this year is a 197.425, and I doubt that's going to get the job done this time.

March 2, 2015

Week 8 Rankings and RQS Update

In week 8, Florida returned home and managed to win the high-score championship for the second time in the last three weeks with another home 198. As is often the case, floor was where things got really enthusiastic as every competitor in the rotation broke 9.900, causing a bit of an uproar as Bridgey Caquatto got a 9.975 in the anchor position, riding the scores from the bigger routines from Baker and Hunter before her.

There's sort of a traditional notion that rotation orders should culminate with the best routine (which would be Hunter's...or Baker's more and more), but Florida has been able to squeeze so many big scores out of Caquatto's routine over the last several years because of the lineup position. I don't know why more teams don't take that cue and manipulate the lineup order to their advantage. Florida will consistently score better on floor finishing with Baker, Hunter, Caquatto than they would with Caquatto, Baker, Hunter. You don't need Kytra in the anchor position because her routine is big, impressive, and famous enough that it doesn't need to be 6th to get a 10.

Sam Peszek's vault was another discussion topic, as she stuck a very strong vault and originally received a 9.925 for it, which is a normal score but was a little silly based on the scores given to the previous vaults in the lineup.


It was ultimately raised to an appropriate 9.950 after Miss Val performed one of her classic interpretive movement pieces entitled "Open Mouth, Silent Outrage, Tears of a Nation." Peszek definitely did not obey the heels-together-post-stick guideline, leaving a pretty big foot separation as she held her stick, but it reinforces the frustration that if you're going to impose stricter standards to the best vaults, you also have to impose the same strict standards to the weaker vaults, otherwise the scores end up being too similar, which happened in UCLA's vault rotation.

In other news, we're moving dangerously close to Regionals with every passing day, so for reference, here is what the Regional placements would look like if the season ended today. We have a lot of hosts this year who aren't currently in the top 18 (Cal, Ohio State, Iowa State, West Virginia), which always makes things a little more interesting.

Regional 1: [1] Oklahoma (HOST), [12] Illinois, [13] Stanford
Regional 2: [2] LSU, [11] Penn State, [14] Boise State
Regional 3: [3] Florida, [10] Georgia, [15] Oregon State
Regional 4: [4] Utah, [9] Auburn (HOST), [16] Minnesota
Regional 5: [5] Michigan, [8] UCLA, [17] Denver
Regional 6: [6] Alabama, [7] Nebraska, [18] Arkansas

Week 8 Rankings – (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.740
Week 8: 197.875
Week 8 leaders: AA - None; VT - Capps, Dowell, Scaman 9.925; UB - Scaman 9.925; BB - Capps, Clark, Sorensen 9.925; FX - Jackson, Scaman 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.875
Road Score 3: 197.700
Road/Home Score 1: 197.850
Road/Home Score 2: 197.650
Road/Home Score 3: 197.625

After a couple weeks of normal, Oklahoma jumped back up into the high 197s for the second-highest team score of the season, and did it mostly because of an epic final rotation on beam. That's the beam rotation we've been missing the last few competitions. Things are about to get really interesting for the Sooners now. They've had a couple meets with top teams so far this season (LSU, Michigan) and have come out on top, but with Florida and home and Alabama away in the next two weeks, we'll get a great sense of where they stand in the actual title race heading right into conference championships.

Oklahoma extended the lead over LSU with the performance this weekend, getting rid of a 197.3 and spiffing up the RQS outlook to the point where there aren't really any scores to drop or worry about. It's unlikely that they'll reach a historic RQS this season, but with a 197.825 against Florida on Friday, they can eclipse their final RQS from last season with a couple weeks to spare.

2. LSU – 197.485
Week 8: 197.350
Week 8 leaders: AA - Jordan 39.575; VT - Hambrick 9.925; UB - Courville, Gnat, Jordan 9.875; BB - Jordan 9.900; FX - Jordan 9.925

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 197.350
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.950
Road/Home Score 3: 197.350

In spite of the score being 197.350 and relatively pedestrian compared to what we've come to expect from the top schools this season, this was a big win. If LSU needed a further statement that this team is ready to beat everybody, becoming the first team to beat Alabama at Alabama was it. It was not an ideal performance, but they delivered a very strong floor rotation when necessary, and even though the beam score was the lower rotation score on the day, that was a nailed rotation with the exception of a nervy, Kathy-Johnson-destroying routine from Macadaeg. Jessie Jordan's beam routine was the best 9.900 beam routine you'll see this year. I supposed that gets balanced out by some of the charitable bars scores for routines with clear errors.

The Tigers are home against Minnesota this weekend in their home finale, so they will not be able to challenge Oklahoma in the #1 spot even with a season high. It will be hard for LSU to move up from this #2 spot with that guaranteed-to-count 197.425 road score because Oklahoma's current low RQS score is already two-tenths higher than that.