Florida @ NC State – Friday 7:00 ET
This meet is really more like Florida vs. Expectations as NC State should not be in the same scoring stratum as the Gators in a sane world. NC State currently sits in that frustrating purgatory where they should make Regionals but have no realistic hope of making Championships. They bring the same composition and skill set as teams in the 13-18 range, but a lack of general amplitude and acceptable split position keeps them a step lower. We'll see a lot of tuck jumps and cat leaps as a way of avoiding those splits.
As for Florida, we got
official confirmation this week that Rachel Spicer is joining the team, which should give them some depth and a consistent early-lineup worker on any event. I have more hope for her making lineups than I do for Kiersten Wang, but time will tell. The change in fall preparation schedule will likely have an effect on Florida's January quality, but I do still expect them to perform well and score in the 196s. Although, as explained in my
Florida preview, a fall or two on beam in these early meets would not be the worst thing in the world. All in all, we'll probably see a healthy mix of solid 9.9s and tentative 9.7s, which is to be expected at this time of year. Pay special attention to Kytra Hunter's contribution here and over the first few weeks. They will need her sturdiness to take some pressure off of Caquatto's legs in the early season and to anchor vault and floor with 9.9+ in the later season.
Rotation to watch: Florida on beam. They will need to experiment with this lineup over the course of months since no one should have a guaranteed spot after the performance last postseason. Watch this rotation more for competition confidence than for scores. A fall is fine right now as long as it is part of an aggressive routine. Uncertainty is the biggest red flag.
Denver @ Georgia – Friday 7:30 ET
Here we have another meet where the result shouldn't really be in doubt, although Denver is a better team than NC State, and Georgia is a worse team than Florida. It wouldn't be entirely inconceivable for Georgia to have a shambolic performance and lose, though I wouldn't bet on it. Georgia has the benefit of opening the season at home, so expect the scores to be . . . generous with a sarcastic smile.
Jay Clark held a
live chat earlier today, which is a pretty boring read, so you don't need to bother unless you really love Jay and/or diplomatic answers. He did make one odd comment, though, saying that vault and beam would likely be the highest scoring events for Georgia this year. Really? Vault? Where you have Kat Ding, Kaylan Earls, and . . . who else? Bekah Bennetts and Rue McClanahan? Bars should be a better event for them with Ding, Worley, Davis, and Nuccio who all should be capable of 9.9s, so bars being weaker than vault would be a concern going forward.
While we usually hear the most discussion each fall about how the freshmen are going to change the complexion of a team, the rhetoric for Georgia this year has been all about Shayla. "This is Shayla's year." They better hope so. Because of her performance over the last two seasons, she has a lower threshold for a slow start. One fall on beam and those pitchforks are going to be out. She needs to be a scoring leader from the first meet.
Rotation to watch: Georgia on bars. They will not be able to contend with the top three teams on vault and, especially, floor. They just don't have the quality and depth. A great bars rotation is crucial to help erase that deficit. Christa Tanella's 9.7 won't cut it here.
Cancun Classic (Arkansas, LSU, Iowa, Auburn, Arizona, San Jose State) – Friday 8:00 ET
I'm calling this meet the Spoiler Alert Classic as Arkansas and LSU are the most discussed spoilers to the top teams. LSU had a miserable season by their standards in 2011, and they will be relying primarily on an excellent crop of freshmen to lift them up. Relying on new gymnasts for the majority of late-lineup routines is a dangerous proposition, and I'm not sold on their ability to carry this team. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but I don't see them challenging consistently. This meet will be a good first test of how many holes those freshmen can fill and where the team is still lacking.
Arkansas has a bit more experience and depth as a group, which is why I expect them to take this meet. The big task for Arkansas in 2012 is avoiding being simply The Jamie Pisani Experience Starring Jamie Pisani. Katherine Grable is the most likely heir to that throne, just as Pisani was the heir to the Casey Jo Magee throne, but the team will need to find more top routines from the likes of Borsellino, Howdeshell, and the freshmen.
Rotation to watch: Arkansas on beam. If this team is going to make the transition to being a contender instead of a perennial challenger, they can't have rotations that they are just trying to get through, as beam was in 2011. We're starting to expect more than just a bunch of 9.75s. Do they exist?
(continued with Saturday and Sunday meets)