The Weekend Plans – March 11-13

The last weekend before championship season. The last weekend of only two judges. The absolute last weekend of "exploring depth." We hope. Some teams are still "exploring depth" in May. This weekend can be interesting to watch in terms of lineups, which teams decide to use it as an opportunity to rest gymnasts versus which teams feel it's necessary to solidify final lineups this week before the various championships begin. Most teams fall into the latter category and have been using the past couple meets to throw in some rest weeks for various elites and fragiles, but we'll see.

For many teams that are eager to solidify lineups, this weekend becomes the final chance to try to squeeze their 90%-injured athletes into the lineup and make sure they're good to go for the postseason. LSU will hope to get Priessman back into action on Saturday, and if she's actually back with the good and hitting, she could be LSU's secret weapon for a title run. If not, they'll want know that before SECs. UCLA has also been sans about a million crucial routines in recent weeks, with Peng out, no Dejesus/Cipra/Francis on floor last week, and with the deus ex machina that's suddenly going to make bars better somehow still waiting to appear. Um...we need you? 

Top 25 schedule 
Friday, March 11

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – North Carolina @ [2] Florida

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Iowa State @ [21] Kentucky

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Pittsburgh @ [25] West Virginia
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [15] Missouri @ Western Michigan

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Arizona State @ [7] Auburn

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Utah State @ [11] Arkansas

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – BYU @ [20] Arizona

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Southern Utah, San Jose State @ [12] Boise State

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [14] Cal, Sacramento State @ UC Davis

Saturday, March 12

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Big Five Meet #1: [6] Michigan, [18] Iowa, [19] Minnesota, Rutgers @ Penn State

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Big Five Meet #2: [16] Nebraska, [23] Illinois, Michigan State, Maryland @ Ohio State

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [9] Georgia @ [5] Utah

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [3] LSU, [16] Oregon State, New Hampshire @ Texas Woman’s

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [10] Denver, Seattle Pacific @ [24] Washington

Sunday, March 13

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Kent State, Yale @ [22] George Washington

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [25] West Virginia @ Pittsburgh

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [1] Oklahoma @ [8] UCLA

Live blogging
ALL. THREE. DAYS. It's a bit of a weird one on Friday. We're used to the big Friday night SEC clashes (or FRIDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS, as the cool kids call it), but this Friday sees exactly no meetings between top-25 schools. I'll certainly keep an eye on the big guns like Florida and Auburn, but the absence of significant dual meets also means that this should be a worthwhile chance to check in on non-famous teams we need to see, like Boise State.

Things get slightly more real on Saturday with the qualifiers to Big Tens. But here's something dumb: The first meet will be broadcast live on BTN. (Yay!) After that, instead of showing the second meet, BTN will be showing the tape-delayed Nebraska/Penn State meet from January. Yeah, uh....WTF? Anyway, I'll keep it going through Georgia/Utah and then return on Sunday for Oklahoma/UCLA. Pac-12 coming through with the good ones this week.

Rankings
In the top 10, we could see some jockeying for a place or two this week. Utah, Michigan, and Auburn in 5, 6, 7 may shuffle themselves around, and Georgia and UCLA could flip-flop depending on which team is less terrifying, but the real action happens farther down the rankings. (Georgia theoretically has a shot to pass Auburn for the evening session at SECs, but it's not too, too likely. Auburn can clinch with a 196.950, and Georgia would need an Auburn miss and a 197 of its own to have a shot.) 

Utah and UCLA have secured spots in the big-girl session at Pac-12s, but their companions are still TBD with Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington all remaining in contention. Stanford and Cal currently inhabit those spots, but Stanford is out of action this week. Cal needs 195.675 to pass Stanford, while Oregon State needs 195.850, and Washington needs 196.350. All attainable, which means it may come down to which two sides pass Stanford by the most. Saturday evening just got interesting.

Nebraska's performance in the Big Five will also be critical. The Huskers are currently in 16th but have a 195.350 road score to drop and could move as high as 11th with a big result, which would drastically change the regional picture.

We'll know more about what teams need to do to make the top 12/18 after this week because there are still a ton of different scenarios at this point, but farther down the rankings, Bowling Green is developing into a story. Bowling Green currently sits in 38th, .050 out of the regional spots, but with a meet on Thursday and another on Saturday, a serious chance to move up with some mid-195s jas suddenly presented itself. Bowling Green hasn't made regionals since...quarter past ever? 

The Weekend Plans – March 4-6

Two weeks of normal competition until the conference championships. Two. The ranking and RQS situations are currently urgent, verging on EEEEEE, for more than a few teams. Plus, we have the elite world barging in this weekend. If you plan on doing things this weekend that aren't watching gymnastics while making vaguely snarky yet harmless observations, we're not friends.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, March 4

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [2] Florida @ [23] Kentucky

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [6] Utah @ [5] Michigan

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [8] Auburn @ [10] Georgia

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – NC State @ [21] George Washington

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [24] Eastern Michigan @ Kent State

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Nastia Liukin Nastiathon for the Nastia Cup
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [17] Iowa @ Iowa State

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [18] Arizona @ [1] Oklahoma

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [9] Arkansas @ [14] Missouri

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [3] Alabama @ [4] LSU

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [19] Minnesota, Air Force @ [13] Denver

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Ball State, Seattle Pacific @ [20] Oregon State

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Southern Utah, Michigan State, Lindenwood @ [12] Cal

Saturday, March 5

11:30 ET/8:30 PT – AT&T Cupful of Americans 

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Northern Illinois, Illinois State, Illinois-Chicago @ [22] Illinois
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Like a Men's Thing? With John Orozco? 

Sunday, March 6

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Ohio State, Bowling Green @ [25] West Virginia

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [21] George Washington, Pittsburgh, Texas Woman’s, Yale @ Maryland

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [10] Georgia, [16] Stanford @ [7] UCLA
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Utah State @ [15] Nebraska

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [13] Denver, [19] Minnesota @ Air Force

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Michigan State @ [11] Boise State

Live blogging
Whew. We've got a Friday in front of us during which every little thing on Earth will happen. All the top 10 teams except UCLA (always gotta be different...) have overlapping meets on Friday, which is either exciting or really poorly planned. Get all 20 of your screens ready. That doesn't even count Nastia's Athletic Cup, which I probably won't blog since so much NCAA action will be happening simultaneously, but I'm sure others will be all up in that business. Pink things. I already blogged it. I usually end up watching it in about October, when all the competitors are starting NCAA and I need to remember who they are. 

Utah/Michigan will be broadcast on tape delay on BTN, four hours after the actual meet, which normally would be annoying but in this case may be some built-in prioritization and scheduling. This weekend is a women's basketball whatever, so there will be far fewer live TV meets than usual. It's an internet weekend. Or as I call it, a weekend. 

The big deal on Saturday is American Cup. I'll be tweeting. Obviously. Then back to blogging on Sunday for the Georgia/Stanford/UCLA threeway.

Rankings
We have a theoretical chance for movement at the top of the rankings, but just theoretical. Florida would need to score a 198.175 away at Kentucky AND Oklahoma would need to score 197.475 or lower at home against Arizona for Florida to take over the top ranking spot. Both teams are safe at 1-2 even if they do end up flip-flopping.

We could see some spot exchanges as we go down the top 10, with Utah and Michigan meeting on Friday with the higher ranking on the line and Auburn preparing to drop a fairly low road score and looking to leapfrog UCLA. #10 Georgia has the most to gain/lose this weekend with two meets, the Sunday meet away at UCLA being significantly more important. Georgia is still counting a 195.675 road score right now, and with even just a normal meet and a hit beam in both of the weekend's endeavors, the Gymdogs will expect to zoom up, potentially as high as 7th, though a lot would need to go their way with the other teams for that actually to happen.

That UCLA Sunday meet is the most critical ranking meet of the weekend since it will also determine Stanford's ceiling and decide whether the Cardinal are in the running for a #2 regionals seed. With a mid-196, Stanford is right in it, but with another 195, it will be exceedingly unlikely if not impossible.

Eyes on Denver as well, coming off that 197.5 and with two meets this weekend, one at home and one at almost-home against Air Force. I would honestly not be bowled over to see Denver knocking into the top 10 at the end of the weekend if Arkansas and Georgia don't perform. 

Iowa is also looking to drop a 194.900 this weekend in a big rivalry meet against Iowa State and could move as high as #12 if things fall just right. Fall being the operative word.

The Weekend Plans – February 26-29

Before we get into the schedule and weekend preview, a few notes on the development of the week, Jess's fantabulous interview with McKayla Maroney and a metric ton of pillows in which Maroney announced her don't-call-it-a-retirement, which she will be expressing by retiring. In case you've been living under a rock on Pluto, here it is.



Obviously, I'm obsessed with it. The biggest news here is her discussion of AOGC and Artur and Galina, and I love that she had the giant steel ovaries to say exactly what was wrong about their treatment of her and exactly what is wrong about the treatment of the livestock athletes through the camps and tours. Not being allowed to smile or look at people? Horrible. All the athletes feeling afraid to eat at the ranch? Horrible. Not having her injuries taken seriously? Horrible. We have a tendency to gloss over terrible treatment of gymnasts with a "the kind of stuff that happened in the 80s and 90s" nonchalance, but clearly it's still happening. Your move, USAG.

But also, getting in trouble for doing Yurchenko double backs at the ranch? Awesome.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, February 26

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [23] West Virginia, Penn State, Temple, West Chester, S. Connecticut (@ Philadelphia, PA)

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [7] LSU @ [2] Florida

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [20] George Washington, NC State, William & Mary @ Towson

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [4] Michigan @ [1] Oklahoma

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [16] Missouri @ [8] Auburn

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [22] Kentucky @ [9] Arkansas

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Iowa State @ [24] Illinois

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [10] Georgia @ [3] Alabama

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [11] Boise State @ Utah State

Saturday, February 27

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [5] Utah @ [14] Cal

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Arizona State @ [6] UCLA

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [21] Eastern Michigan, Pittsburgh @ Ohio State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Winona State, Gustavus Adolphus, Hamline @ [19] Minnesota

6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Washington @ [25] Arizona

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Sacramento State, Bridgeport, Northern Illinois @ [14] Nebraska

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [18] Iowa, SEMO, Illinois-Chicago @ [13] Denver 

Sunday, February 28

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Maryland, Towson @ [20] George Washington

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [24] Illinois @ Lindenwood 

Monday, February 29

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [12] Stanford @ [17] Oregon State

Live blogging

Friday is one of the biggest days of the regular season, perhaps the biggest, featuring three significant top-10 match-ups, so I'll be all over it. Then, on Saturday, we have some simultaneous Pac-12 action. (Planning...) Utah/Cal is on the main Pac-12 Network and UCLA/ASU is just on the regional LA version of the network. I'll be watching both simultaneously and commenting back and forth as usual, but let me know in the comments if you guys have a preference as to which one I focus on with the live blogging. 

Rankings
Expect things at the very top to remain steady this week with many of the top teams competing at home and unable to drop their nasty road scores. Oklahoma at #1, Florida at #2, and Alabama at #3 are all guaranteed to retain those positions after this weekend. Beyond that, things get a little interesting with the next four teams, Michigan, Utah, UCLA, and LSU, who are capable of ending the weekend in really any order. With those 196.9s, Michigan has been safe at the top since the season began, but now the Wolverines are a little vulnerable to all other teams that are matching their couple mid-197s and high 196s. Pay particular attention to LSU in 7th. With a 195.825 road score to drop on this visit to Florida, the Tigers look very likely to zoom way up.

While those four may change order, the current top 7 are guaranteed to remain the top 7 for another week. Georgia has a road 195.350 to drop and can close the gap significantly, and do so even with another 4/6 beam rotation, but getting this Georgia team ranked where it should be is going to be a multi-week process. Still, with even just a 196.100, Georgia would be guaranteed to jump ahead of Arkansas for 9th.

Stanford doesn't compete until Monday night, so it's quite possible in the new rankings that we could see the Cardinal dropped by the likes of Denver, Nebraska, and Cal, making Monday's meet for Stanford all the more important to avoid a yucky ranking. There's no more margin for error. One more bad meet, and Stanford is counting a 195 for RQS. The score on Monday is similarly critical for Oregon State, the #17 team that could theoretically move as high as #12 and pass Stanford if everything falls just right.

The Weekend Plans – February 19-22

We've already hit the point in the season when teams begin having senior night/day. What is happening? This weekend marks the final home meet for Stanford and Iowa, among others.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, February 19

6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Western Michigan @ [21] Eastern Michigan 
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [2] Florida @ [19] Missouri
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Illinois @ Michigan State

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – New Hampshire, North Carolina, William & Mary @ [17] George Washington

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [11] Arkansas @ Maryland

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [18] Minnesota, Air Force @ Iowa State

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [8] Auburn @ [6] LSU

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [3] Michigan, UC Davis @ [23] Southern Utah

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Ohio State @ [9] Boise State

Saturday, February 20

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [1] Oklahoma @ [10] Georgia

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [4] Alabama, [13] Denver, Cornell @ Penn State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [5] Utah @ [12] Stanford

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [15] Cal @ [16] Oregon State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Towson @ [24] Iowa

Sunday, February 21 

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [22] Kentucky @ West Virginia

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [14] Nebraska, NC State, UW-La Crosse @ Iowa State

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [7] UCLA @ Washington

Monday, February 22

9:00 ET/6:00 PT –[20] Arizona @ Arizona State

Live blogging
Friday and Saturday, as is becoming the norm. Friday's headline meet is Auburn and LSU, but Michigan and Florida will be worth keeping an eye on as well. Once again, Saturday totally beats Friday, with a whole heap of overlapping afternoon meets. It'll be another Gymnastics Situation Room kind of day, so prepare your eyes, devices, and attention spans.

Rankings
We move onto RQS Island starting on Monday, which means we'll have a more defined sense of exactly what teams need in order to move up now. Oklahoma is guaranteed to retain the #1 ranking for at least another week. Alabama and Florida are neck-and-neck for the #2 spot right now with both teams heading out for what should be comfortable road wins. A slight advantage goes to Florida because the Gators have a 196.350 to get rid of while Alabama is trying to drop a 196.775. Florida is more likely to increase RQS even with an average result. 

Michigan is almost surely safe at #4, with only UCLA having an outside chance to overtake (though it would take a season-high for UCLA and a season-low for Michigan to get it done). UCLA is currently at #7 but has a 195.175 road score to drop this weekend and with a big result, can leapfrog both #5 Utah and #6 LSU regardless of what either team does.

Stanford and Georgia are two other teams with high increase potential, with Georgia looking to drop a 195.700 and Stanford looking to drop that nasty wretch of a 194.800. Also, don't lose track of Iowa. Iowa is currently at #24, but with a fifth consecutive 196, it would not be surprising to see Iowa jump right up into the mid teens.

Friday
-Most of the results on Friday seem relatively predestined, except perhaps for Auburn and LSU, the annual instance of Tiger on Tiger crime. Auburn is coming off that huge upset of Alabama and, more importantly, a return to the type of scores we saw last season. Winning away against LSU, however, is more challenging prospect. LSU is the stronger team overall and so tough to beat at home, but LSU has managed a 197 just once so far this season, not displaying enough consistency yet to earn the mantle of prohibitive favorites. LSU didn't count a fall last weekend but still came in below Auburn's mark by half a point because of way too many minor errors across every event. 

Until last weekend, vault would have seemed a major advantage for LSU, and while LSU still should have the edge primarily because of the Gnat Factor, Auburn can keep the meet close early, or event get a lead, if the vault landings are similar to last week. The halfway lead may be possible because bars, particularly dismount control on bars, is one area where Auburn has looked stronger than LSU. It's necessary because once we get to the second half of the meet, LSU has more 9.9 potential on beam, meaning that if LSU actually hits real routines (hasn't always happened/hasn't usually happened), Auburn will drop tenths in spite of Demers/Atkinson greatness. Those tenths will be tough to make up against LSU on home floor.

-Florida's mission this weekend is a big road score, which has so far eluded the team. This Gator roster is far too capable to be maxing out at a low 197 on the road, even in February. Last weekend's result was perfectly solid, but a little misleading in the vault and floor scores because essential routines from Sloan and Baker were missing, which made those rotations look a little more flaccid than they are. Yes, I used the word flaccid. Florida doesn't have enough depth on vault and floor to rest people and still maintain Florida-esque scoring potential, but with full lineups, this team should be able to do mid-197s regardless of venue. We do still need to be on floor watch/Bridgey watch, though.

The Weekend Plans – February 12-15

Saturday night meets? What, do they think we all have no lives? Oh wait, that is correct.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, February 12

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [9] Arkansas @ [2] Florida

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [15] Missouri @ [25] Kentucky

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Perfect 10 Challenge - [1] Oklahoma, [12] Denver, [17] George Washington, Utah State

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [4] Alabama @ [8] Auburn

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU, Sacramento State @ [21] Southern Utah

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [18] Minnesota @ [14] Nebraska

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [10] Boise State @ San Jose State

Saturday, February 13

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [5] LSU @ [11] Georgia

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Penn State @ [23] Ohio State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Iowa @ [20] Illinois

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Southern Connecticut @ [22] New Hampshire

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Washington @ [6] Utah

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [13] Stanford @ Arizona

11:00 ET/8:00 PT – [16] Oregon State @ [7] UCLA

Sunday, February 14

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [25] Kentucky, Lindenwood, Kent State @ Ball State

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Michigan State @ [3] Michigan

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [24] West Virginia @ [4] Alabama

Monday, February 15

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [19] Cal @ Arizona State

Live blogging
Friday as usual, probably with special attention to the Perfect 10 Challenge since I've seen so much of the SEC this year and less of Denver and GW. Saturday is also sort of making Friday look like an idiot this week, so I'll be all over that with LSU/Georgia and then again later for the glut of Pac-12 action. It'll get crazy. Sit back and let the insanity wash over you like a fine breeze or the knowledge of your own insignificance.

Friday
-The most competitive meets on Friday will probably end up being Missouri/Kentucky and Minnesota/Nebraska. The higher-ranked team will be favored in both, but upset potential exists. I'm particularly curious to see how Missouri fares away from home after that unexpectedly huge score last weekend. The next away meet is always the best test of how realistic home scores are.

-Among the big girls, Alabama against Auburn is the showcase on Friday. Apparently, this is kind of a rivalry or something, but in spite of meeting three times last season and this already being the second meeting of 2016, Auburn is still yet to record a victory against Alabama since turning good. At home and coming off a season-high, this is the best chance they'll have. That said, Alabama should win the meet and is the better team on every event, but that doesn't mean it will be a blowout. The Tide has displayed inconsistency this season, and while there haven't been any implosions since the loss to Arkansas, counting medium mistakes or weak landings has become commonplace, including on two of the four events in the last meet. Relying on those mistakes will be Auburn's hope.

Alabama has two meets this weekend, so I wouldn't necessarily expect to get any answers about postseason lineups quite yet. Dana has been jumbling people all over the place and will likely do the same this time in order to keep everyone relatively rested and avoid over-pressing the fragile ones. I would bet on more depth exploration for the time being.

We should also be on Beers Watch 2016, not just because it's important to start drinking during beam but because even though Lauren Beers has competed a remarkable amount for someone who spent the preseason in several pieces in a shoebox, she has been very up-and-down, occasionally starting to look like herself and then immediately falling a bunch of times. How much will they push her in a double-meet weekend, and will we see GoodBeers or DarthBeers?

The Weekend Plans – February 5-8

After this weekend, a number of teams will be halfway done with their regular-season schedules. Why yes, we did just start this two seconds ago. 

Top 25 schedule

Friday, February 5

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [1] Florida @ [11] Georgia

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [23] West Virginia @ Iowa State

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Oklahoma, [10] Auburn, Illinois State @ Texas Woman’s

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – SEMO, Lindenwood @ [16] Missouri

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [25] Kentucky @ [4] Alabama

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [8] Arkansas @ [6] LSU

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [9] Boise State @ [24] Southern Utah

Saturday, February 6

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [7] Utah @ [5] UCLA

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [19] Illinois @ [18] Minnesota

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [14] Nebraska @ Iowa

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Utah State @ [13] Denver

Sunday, February 7

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Towson, Bridgeport, Brown @ [22] New Hampshire

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [17] George Washington, Northern Illinois @ Kent State

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [23] West Virginia @ [2] Oklahoma

Monday, February 8

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Maryland, Eastern Michigan @ [3] Michigan
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Arizona State @ [12] Stanford

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [15] Oregon State @ Washington

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [20] Arizona @ [21] Cal

Live blogging
Friday and Saturday. On Friday, my focus will be Florida/Georgia, the TWU meet featuring Oklahoma and Auburn, and Arkansas/LSU, with perhaps brief check-ins with Kentucky/Arkansas. Saturday is all about the Utah/UCLA rivalry. Also on Sunday, check your cable options if that's your kind of thing because Oklahoma's second meet of the weekend will once again be broadcast on some really random networks. Otherwise, just spend the day making fun of handegg like a normal.

Friday
-Coming off the pile of gold doubloons falling from the ceiling that was Florida's meet last Friday, it's hard to envision any kind of drop in quality coming into the Georgia meet. The Gators will be major favorites against the have-we-stopped-reeling-yet Gymdogs. As the road team, however, Florida may be hit with a reality stick this time around as to what scores they're really earning for hit routines. Because Georgia has never exhibited crazy scoring. Never ever. I don't know what you're talking about. 

If Georgia is to pull off the upset, it will probably take Florida counting a mistake, but it will also take winning vault. That's the one event where Georgia may find an opening. While Florida displayed much-improved landings over the weekend, and Georgia the opposite, Georgia has a touch superior difficulty and the real capability to stick for 49.5s, especially at home, which not that many teams have. If Florida's vault landings return to mid-January level, Georgia could gain some very valuable early tenths.

Of course, we can't go much further without talking about Georgia's beam. It's the all-important factor that will decide whether this meet is even in the vicinity of close. Last weekend, The Gymdogs graduated to just one fall, which was a laudable achievement, but they must take the next step and actually hit six whole routines this time. That's the short-term goal, but one that's immediately necessary with a tough opponent like Florida. The long-term goal, which could be decisive when evaluating postseason aspirations, is not just getting six hit routines but getting them from the six highest-potential scorers. Keep watching the lineup members and order. If Georgia is forced to compromise too much scoring potential in order to get a hit rotation, by removing pretties or moving top workers to early spots (my most loathed of strategies), that's almost as bad as having a fall. 

As for the other events, Georgia has impressed so far on bars and floor. This was the least terrifying January floor performance of the Durante era, and bars looks much stronger than I thought it would based on preseason showings, with a particular gold star to Gracie Cherrey for cleaning up her DLO so dramatically in a short period of time. The question going forward for Georgia on bars will be Brandie Jay's dismount. She's capable of a big score on bars but doesn't have the most pristine form or handstands in the world. Couple that with a DLO 1/1, difficult to stick and maintain body shape, and she's always on the verge of getting dropped down to 9.800, a score that looks comparatively harsh against the rabble of much less inspiring 9.800s that we see all over the place. The team needs a 9.900 from Jay pretty much every time, so when will be the time to introduce a more cynical, simpler dismount so that she can join the ranks of stuck dismounts on this team? The Gators have more of those likely 9.9s, even for Piked Giant McGee, which will give them the bars edge.



On floor, I still think Florida is suffering from a case of the half-a-lineups, in spite of the score last weekend, but the big routines from Baker and friends will likely overshadow what Georgia has to offer. That's why vault is so important for the GymDawwwwwwwwwgs. I added extra w's because I can't take it seriously. 

The Weekend Plans – January 29-February 1

The top 25 schedule looks like a rather paltry affair this week, but that's mostly because it's heavily incestuous with most of the top teams competing against each other. So, what we lose in quantity we should make up for in quality with a few legitimate marquee 50/50 meets. It's worth getting excited about.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, January 29

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [5] Alabama @ [1] Florida

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [3] Michigan @ [17] Nebraska

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [13] Georgia @ [23] Kentucky

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [19] Illinois @ Penn State

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [9] Auburn @ [8] Arkansas

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU @ [10] Boise State

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah @ Utah State

Saturday, January 30

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [11] George Washington @ North Carolina

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [18] Minnesota @ Ohio State

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [14] Denver @ Bowling Green

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ [24] Eastern Michigan

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Arizona State @ [15] Oregon State

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Metroplex Challenge ([2] Oklahoma, [6] LSU, [12] Stanford, [16] Missouri, Washington)

Monday, February 1

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [20] Arizona @ [7] Utah

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [4] UCLA @ [21] Cal

Live blogging
Friday will be the usual, with special focus on Alabama/Florida since that's kind of a massive meet. It doesn't look like there will be live streaming of the Michigan/Nebraska meet, which is a shame, so we'll just have to keep ourselves warm with SEC action and the cozy glow of Kathy Johnson's sigh of dismay. I'll then be back on Saturday to get sloppy with Metroplex, which should be the amazing, competitive, crack-smokingly-scored meet we've come to know and love.

Friday
-We've got some serious showdowns headlining Friday in which the results are actually up in the air (!), so let's get into it. Alabama and Florida is always a worthwhile experience, but with both teams at a point in the season where they're still showing flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of vulnerability, the outcome will probably be determined by which team can minimize those pesky January errors we've been seeing rather than which team is the most brilliantly, spectacularly amazing.

If both teams do end up hitting to their capabilities, give to edge to Florida for having shown higher scoring potential so far this year and (primarily) for being at home. Still, these teams are both at a level when even counting a 9.700 would change the outcome, let alone counting a fall, so there's no margin for the Gators.
 

Florida's clear advantage event is bars. The Gators devlier a much stronger lineup with several more 9.900-9.950s, while Alabama is more a 9.850 team because of scoring vulnerabilities like those double fronts. It's unlikely that Alabama can keep pace with hit Sloan/Caquatto routines, so Florida will need and expect a lead at the halfway point. That's especially especially true because I also give Florida the edge on vault, with bigger 1.5s (though Alabama should have more 1.5s—Beers, Brannan, Guerrero vs. Baker, Boren—which could mitigate that) and two of the best fulls in NCAA in Sloan and McMurtry, fulls that Alabama cannot match with its own. That advantage, however, is so dependent on the landings, and Florida is definitely not on stick patrol yet and giving up quite a bit there right now. If Alabama can land and minimize the two-event deficit to something around two tenths, we've got a real meet.

All eyes will be on Alabama's beam after the catastrophe last weekend to see if it becomes a Georgia or not. Theoretically, I do think Alabama's beam is stronger than Florida's 1-6 with more pristine form and potential 9.9s, but of course, hitting. Florida has been better at hitting beam than any other team so far this year. If Alabama is to take the meet, winning beam is absolutely essential, especially because Florida ends on floor at home, a scoring situation that may counteract any lineup advantage Alabama may have on the event.

While Florida boasts the two strongest floor routines from either team in Baker and Sloan (especially in the absence of Carley Sims), Alabama has many, many more options for realistic 9.850-9.875 routines than Florida does and can use those early spots in the lineup to gain a floor edge. Much as Florida needs comparatively stronger bars scores 4-6, Alabama needs comparatively stronger floor scores 1-3.

The Weekend Plans – January 22-24

Apparently, the east coast broke, so some of these teams will not be competing this weekend because they're being preserved in ice for future archaeologists to find. George Washington is out of Saturday's meet, but as of now, the meet is still expected to go ahead. Penn State was supposed to travel to Maryland, but that meet has been postponed because of "as if."

Top 25 schedule + other notables

Friday, January 22

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [10] Arkansas @ [4] Alabama

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Iowa State, Arizona State @ [2] Oklahoma

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [9] Georgia @ [14] Missouri

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [3] Michigan @ [17] Illinois

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [1] Florida @ [8] Auburn

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [20] Kentucky @ [7] LSU

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Utah State @ [23] Southern Utah

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [13] Boise State, UC Davis @ BYU

Saturday, January 23

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [5] UCLA @ Arizona

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [11] Oregon State @ [6] Utah

6:00 ET/3:00 PT – *[12] George Washington, [15] New Hampshire, Temple @ Pittsburgh

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Rutgers @ [18] Nebraska

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Michigan State @ [19] Minnesota

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Washington @ [16] Denver

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [25] Ohio State @ Iowa

Sunday, January 24

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [21] Eastern Michigan, Illinois State @ Ball State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [22] Cal, San Jose State @ [24] Stanford

Live blogging
I'll be here live blogging all the Friday slop as usual—get all your devices and alternate monitors and time machines ready because there will be periods when you want to watch three meets at the same time—as well as UCLA/Arizona on Saturday (but not Oregon State/Utah, just a heads up).  

Friday
-Most of the top teams are getting their meets out of the way on Friday, with only the major Pac-12 sides holding out until the weekend. Though the result is in doubt for very few of these meets, many of these teams are coming off nasties of varying severity in their most recent showings, so there are a couple key rotations to watch. Yeah, I'm talking about Georgia's beam. The SEC Network should definitely cut in to Florida/Auburn when Georgia is going on beam with a breaking news update because we all need to see that thing.

-The premier meet of the week is Florida's visit to Auburn because it features the highest-ranked underdog and because I haven't seen a full Auburn meet yet this season. My needs make things important. Florida is the heavy favorite in this one, with a fuller contingent of both starring 9.9s and supporting 9.8s that would have to thrown up a relative splatfest for Auburn to come out on top. The Gators turned in the strongest and most complete performance in the country so far this season in their last meet, though the scoring was crazy-pie, so part of the interest in this meet will be how similarly hit routines are scored away from home. It should be a better indicator of where Florida is at this point in the season.

Perhaps surprisingly, or not, the floor rotation is the biggest question for Florida so far this year, once again last weekend featuring three great routines and three weak routines. Bridgey will chug along and get into form eventually, but that is a lineup that looks a step behind where it could be given the quality of Baker, Sloan, and Boren. Right now, they're just missing that DLO from Wang or piked full-in from Spicer, or even the 9.850 that Boyce could bring in the first spot to make this a complete and dominant lineup 1-6. For a championship side, everyone in the floor lineup should be a possible 9.900. We've seen Florida, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, etc. do that recently, but that's not the case for Florida right now. That wouldn't be a real problem until Super Six, because this floor lineup is still great, but it's something to keep in mind.

For Auburn, the first couple meets have been fine but not ideal. At this point, the team is still expecting to count some 9.7s and will need more time to develop routines from Krippner and Engler into 9.825-9.850 early-lineup options, rendering a 9.750 a drop-score rather than a phew-score. It will take more than a single January to get to that place, but those are the freshmen I'm watching with the biggest vulture-eyes in this meet. It has been encouraging to see Abby Milliet develop into a true and viable second-in-command to Atkinson on bars and beam (she even did floor last week). The question about Auburn this season is whether this will be a complete contending team or just the Caitlin Atkinson show, especially on bars and beam in the absence of Megan Walker. Milliet has already stepped up the quality from last year to fill that role.

The Weekend Plans – January 15-18

Keep in mind that this is a super-extendo-weekend, beginning tonight and going through Monday, on which we fulfill the national tradition of celebrating the memory of Martin Luther King by bitching about vault landings. As he would have wanted. It's a busy one, with many many teams forcing themselves into two meets in three days for some horrible reason.

Top 25 schedule + other notables

Thursday, January 14

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Yale @ [18] New Hampshire
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [1] LSU vs. [23] NC State (Las Vegas, NV)

Friday, January 15

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [5] UCLA @ [3] Florida

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [14] Missouri @ [6] Alabama

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [12] Oregon State, Bridgeport, Illinois State, Wisconsin-Eau Claire @ Lindenwood

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [11] Cal, Texas Woman’s @ [4] Oklahoma

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [21] Kentucky @ [7] Auburn

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [15] Georgia @ [16] Arkansas

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [7] Utah @ Southern Utah
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [16] Kent State @ Utah State

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Boise State, Seattle Pacific @ UC Davis

Saturday, January 16

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [19] Illinois @ Rutgers

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Ohio State @ [1] Michigan

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Nebraska @ Penn State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [25] Maryland @ [23] Minnesota

Sunday, January 17

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [20] Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green @ Western Michigan

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – North Carolina, Penn, Cornell, Temple @ [7] George Washington

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [10] Arizona @ Texas Woman’s

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [4] Oklahoma @ [16] Arkansas

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [6] Alabama vs. [7] Auburn (Birmingham, AL)

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [18] New Hampshire @ West Virginia

Monday, January 18

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – [22] Stanford @ [15] Georgia

3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [13] Denver @ Iowa

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Washington @ Arizona State

As always, the full schedule can be found at the link at the top.

Live blogging
I will definitely be here live blogging on Friday for UCLA/Florida and Georgia/Arkansas and on Monday for Stanford/Georgia. Other than that, it's a maybe. So stay tuned, but don't weep into your handkerchiefs if it doesn't happen. Or do.

Friday
-The day starts with the big matchup, Florida and UCLA. UCLA will take relief from the win over Alabama, but beating Florida in Florida would be quite the little upset. For some reason, I don't think Bridget Sloan is going to get stuck in the 9.8s again this weekend. Watching how Florida Scoring (TM) plays out in the post-Rhonda era should be one of the more interesting parts of the meet. Remember that time Florida got a 49.8 on floor? Ah, the memories.

The Gators were just OK in the opening meet, but even though it's early, I think we all expect to see a real step forward this weekend, particularly on vault. As in, Alicia Boren is probably not going to fall again. I'm also eager to see how the vault and floor lineups develop in the coming weeks as they looked a little...unsettled in the opener, featuring a couple backup routines. That floor lineup needs the Bridgey anchor score this year much more than ever before since they may be throwing in two routines in the lower 9.8s. 

Really, if Florida was able to go 196.825 last weekend when hitting just one of four events at an expected level, a serious 197 must be the task on Friday.

-This weekend, UCLA should be happy with replicating the beam and floor performances from the first week. Floor won't score the same on the road, but if the Bruins compete those two events at a similar level, that should be enough to earn an early road 196 to rest on. Beam remains the team's best event, the only potential weakness being an attack from the inconsistency monster, so finishing on beam in front of a bigger road crowd cheering some (presumably) giant floor scores this week will be a valuable and necessary challenge. While Florida also scored well on beam in the first meet, this is the one event where the Bruins are the stronger side, so they'll have to take advantage.

The Weekend Plans – January 8-10

It's here! Wait, how do we do this again?

Top 25 Schedule

Friday, January 8

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ [21] Kentucky

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Central Michigan, UW-Whitewater, Winona State @ UW-Eau Claire

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Florida @ Texas Woman’s

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – BYU @ [4] Utah

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Michigan State @ [18] Arizona

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [15] Illinois @ [23] Missouri

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [11]Nebraska, Bowling Green @ Arizona State

Saturday, January 9

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [9] Georgia @ [7] Michigan

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – NC State @ [17] Penn State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [1] Oklahoma @ [5] LSU

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Iowa State @ [20] Minnesota

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah, West Virginia @ [16] Denver

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [22] Ohio State @ Washington

Sunday, January 10

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [23] Missouri @ Lindenwood
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [3] Alabama @ [6] UCLA

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Nor Cal Classic ([8] Stanford, [14] Cal, UC Davis. Sacramento State @ San Jose State)

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [10] Auburn @ [12] Oregon State

As always, the full schedule is available at the link at the top. Note that Arkansas and Boise State will not be competing this weekend. 

FRIDAY

-Let the live blogging begin! I'll be here from the start, though there aren't any really enticing matchups on Friday (you're not even trying...), so I'll probably bop around from meet to meet, missing everything important. I do want to make sure to watch a fair chunk of Nebraska since we rarely get to see Nebraska during the season. Florida against TWU will be broadcast on Aunt Flogymnastics, so those of you watching it are required to provide updates of honesty in the comments. You have your mission.

-For Florida, this will be a very comfortable win, but as I mentioned in the preview, I'm looking forward to seeing the lineup strategy. I'll also be interested to find out where Peyton Ernst is at this point, how Alicia Boren does in her debut given how important she is to the team this year, and how many 10s Bridget Sloan gets. Over/under?

-There's a little less mystery about Utah because we saw them at the RRP and they diligently release their lineups a million days in advance. This too will be an easy-peasy meet, but we've got a lot of event debuts (Lee and Schwab on bars, Merrell and Partyka on beam and floor), which is always reason for a keen eye. Bars and floor are the most depleted since last season, so watch for stuck-at-9.825-itis, though that may be expected to some degree this early in the season. But, is there potential to go much higher?

-Speaking of depleted, Nebraska has a bunch of empty spots in these lineups, and depth will be a major storyline this season. I'm hoping to see as many different freshmen as possible competing to give the team more options than I currently think there are. Let's not make this not a six-AAers kind of season since that is the most nerve-wracking thing in the world. Someone find the bubble wrap. I'm also interested to see how Arizona State fills out these lineups, as in, can they? There are almost four people on the roster this season, but might it be a little less depressing than last year? A little?

 SATURDAY

 -Now that's more like it. We've got two fairly huge meets on Saturday, which overlap because, once again, pull it together everyone. 

-Georgia travels to Michigan to open the season, and this will be the first meet of the year that actually has an uncertain outcome. Michigan does enter as the favorite, however, competing at home and coming off an impressive first meet for a team that was in so many pieces so recently, but it's not open and shut. As we know, the Wolverines are still not a deep team and will need the exact competitors they showed in Cancun to be competitive with the best teams in the country this year. But now, after the Cancun success, it's 197 or bust. Anything less is a regression. 

2016 Preliminary NCAA Schedule

It's getting to be that time of year again. Rosters are set, official training is well underway, and no one has had enough time to become a disappointment yet. It's the sweetest time of year.

Still, there's plenty to get through between now and the start of the NCAA season, with a little thing called the World Championship hogging our attention for the next three weeks or so, but once elite has exhausted its time in the sun, I'll get into the usual dissection of freshman classes and team lineups, parsing all the various roster changes, injury retirements, and scandalous dismissals that have taken place since we left the United Factory of 10s last April. But for now, enough teams have finally gotten around to holding themselves upright long enough to release a season schedule that it makes sense to put together the annual composite list.

It's still a work in progress, with a couple dozen of the usual slowpoke teams still lagging behind, but this is now a mostly complete look at the upcoming 2016 season. All the first-tier teams have released their schedules except Illinois and Penn State. As usual, this schedule will reside at the tab above, where I'll keep updating it as we get closer to the season and more teams release their slates/learn what time zones are/figure out that their schedules are wrong. (Dear Boise State, if you think you're going to Utah on January 15th for a meet, you might want to tell Utah that...)

Meets between teams that qualified to the championship last year are in bold for quick reference. This season isn't all that bad in terms of simultaneous big meets (at least not as bad as last year). The one really bad day (or good day, if you're an excited person who enjoys things) will be February 26, when LSU/Florida, Georgia/Alabama, and Michigan/Oklahoma overlap to some degree, but it's not all that dire because not that many people get to watch Oklahoma meets anyway and the SEC meets are somewhat spaced out. Oklahoma/Georgia and Utah/Stanford on February 20th is another squint-worthy overlap, but it's usually worse.

In terms of strength of schedule, the SEC always wins because of the built-in requirements of having to go against many of the best teams, but UCLA is also trying to shoot the moon with difficult opponents this year, having scheduled non-conference meets with Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia all this season (Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma at home). Season-ticketers will get their money's worth this time.

Other noteworthy quirks in the schedule include NC State competing an exclusively road schedule (save for one not-really-home home meet on senior night) because of renovations to the competition facility, and we also see the return of the Flimsy Excuse for a Trip to Cancun Championship on the first weekend in January, which still no one has offered to take me to. I'm waiting.

WEEK 0 – December 28-January 3

Saturday, January 2

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Cancun Classic (Michigan, Arkansas, Iowa)

Sunday, January 3

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Temple, UW-Eau Claire @ Central Michigan

WEEK 1 – January 4-10

Friday, January 8

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ Kentucky

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Central Michigan, UW-Whitewater, Winona State @ UW-Eau Claire

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – UW-La Crosse @ UW-Stout

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Lindenwood @ SEMO

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Florida @ Texas Woman’s

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – BYU @ Utah

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Michigan State @ Arizona

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Illinois @ Missouri

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Centenary @ Utah State

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Nebraska, Bowling Green @ Arizona State

Saturday, January 9

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Towson, Temple @ Kent State

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – UW-Oshkosh @ Gustavus Adolphus

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Georgia @ Michigan

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – NC State @ Penn State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Oklahoma @ LSU

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ Iowa

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – New Hampshire, George Washington, Rutgers (Boston, MA)

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Iowa State @ Minnesota

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Southern Utah, West Virginia @ Denver

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – Illinois State, Seattle Pacific @ Air Force

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Ohio State @ Washington

TBA – Rhode Island @ Springfield

Sunday, January 10

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Temple @ Kent State

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – UW-Whitewater @ Hamline

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Missouri @ Lindenwood

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Alabama @ UCLA

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Nor Cal Classic (Stanford, Cal, UC Davis. Sacramento State @ San Jose State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Auburn @ Oregon State