A quick glance at Saturday's schedule reveals that regionals have been planned even more horrifically than usual this year. There will be a point during the day at which five of the six competitions will be occurring simultaneously, mostly because they hate us and want us to miss everything. And by they, I mean the people. The people who do the things. Spread the regionals throughout the day, is all I ask. The silver lining to all of this is that Georgia's regional begins an hour before all the others, and Georgia starts on beam. That means we can watch that entire emotional roller coaster unfold without distraction. Thank you, Georgia, for your time zone.
Competing teams (starting event)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[9] Georgia (beam)
[14] Oregon State (floor)
[22] Arizona (bye before floor)
[27] George Washington (bars)
[36] Michigan State (vault)
Competing individuals
NC State (Brittni Watkins – AA; Chelsea Knight – VT; Nicole Wild – BB)
Maryland (Kathy Tang – VT, FX; Abbie Epperson – UB; Macey Roberts – FX)
North Carolina (Morgan Lane – AA; Kaitlynn Hedelund – UB)
Towson (Tyra McKellar – AA; Mary Elle Arduino – BB)
William & Mary (Brittany Stover – AA)
The favorite – LSU
LSU should join Oklahoma and Florida at the same level of heavy, heavy, super favorites to advance from regionals, though the Tigers may feel a little more pressure in this one given the quality of the opposition and the scoring pedigree shown by Georgia and Oregon State, both historically and lately. This competition features the second-deepest collection of 1-2-3 seeds (behind the Michigan regional), so LSU will not be able to afford any mind-losing on beam. These other teams are too capable of taking advantage. Sans any mind-losing and fall-counting, however, LSU will slide through to nationals without forcing DD to punishment-sequin anyone.
The Tigers should have been right in the hunt for the SEC title this year but ended up a step behind Florida and Alabama entirely because of their performance on bars in the first rotation. In fact, if you take the scores from just vault, beam, and floor, LSU wins the competition. Lucky, lucky LSU, they'll be starting on bars at regionals. You're welcome. This LSU bars lineup should be quite strong, but as we saw at SECs, it has emerged as the team's weak event and is still too reliant on Finnegan saving Earth through the medium of toe point for a 9.950. Wyrick hasn't shown a great deal consistency since returning, Zamardi can often dismount herself down to 9.850, and Priessman has a couple built-in errors on the pak and a DLO that can look troublingly Shades of Shayla sometimes. All of them could score quite well, but they're walking a fine line between greatness and getting stuck in the 9.800s, as happened at SECs. As we learned, that's not going to cut it when trying to beat Florida.
The fight – Georgia v. Oregon State
I considered throwing Georgia up into the favorite category with LSU as I do think Georgia should be able to 197 its way through this one, especially at home, but Oregon State proved with its performance at Pac-12s to be among the most dangerous and compelling upset challengers in the country. The Beavs simply suffered the (bad) luck of the draw in getting placed with Home Georgia since the original, non-host-adjusted draw would have seen them placed with Road Denver, where they would have been favorites to qualify. This job is much more challenging. The Beavs will take some confidence that the 196.925 at Pac-12s beat the 196.850 Georgia put up at SECs. Not equivalent meets, no host advantage, etc, but certainly a complication to this regional. On the other hand, Oregon State has not hit 197 yet all year, and in spite of all of the Gymdogs' problems, they have done so in three of the last four meets and really should at regionals.
Showing posts with label Arizona. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona. Show all posts
March 28, 2016
March 17, 2016
Pac-12 Championship Preview
Saturday 3/19
Afternoon session 4:00 ET/1:00 PT
Evening session 9:00 ET/6:00 PT
The Pac-12 should take pride this season in winning the award for the weirdest conference championship scenario. Stanford is the #6 seed and competing in the "who even are you?" afternoon relegation session in spite of being quite a realistic title contender and possible winner, which if nothing else, will serve to make sure we all pay more attention to the afternoon session instead of getting distracted by the simultaneous Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC action. Fun fact: there will be at least 30 minutes during which all four of those championships are going on at the same time. Well, we've had a good life.
Stanford's last meet featured a relative crushing of Georgia and UCLA, so if that's any indication, Stanford is currently in the midst of pulling a Stanford once again this year. But, let's begin with the ones who were good all season long and qualified for the coveted evening session.
EVENING SESSION
Utah, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State
Once again, Utah has earned the top seed in the conference on the back of resolutely having the fewest meltdowns. Hooray! Seven straight weeks of 197s coupled with breaking the 197.5 barrier in the last two outings has given the Utes a fairly comfortable ranking lead over the remaining Pac-12 teams, meaning they'll be favorites heading in. Given what UCLA and Stanford can do, however, there shouldn't more than a few tenths in this either way with hit meets all around (ahahahahahaha), so we have at least some reason to hope for excitement. UCLA is capable of busting out a massive day, and after Stanford goes, we'll have the benefit of a legitimate pace standard through which to gauge Utah and UCLA's performances. So, let's break this thing down.
Rotation 1: UCLA vault, Cal bars, Utah beam, Oregon State floor
Event RQS for rotation 1:
Utah 49.290
UCLA 49.165
Oregon State 49.165
Cal 49.110
Of course UCLA is the team that drew its arch-nemesis, Olympic order, meaning the Bruins already have a four-tenth deficit, and the competition is two days away. It actually is probably beneficial to the Bruins as they make their money on beam and floor and would rather end there than begin there, hoping to squeeze out some home-meet level scoring as Cipra and Bynum on floor will be the last routines of the competition, at the end of a long day, once the judges are already halfway through the whiskey bottle. I know. That's not right of me to say. They'll obviously have finished the whiskey by that point and be on to the cooking sherry and rubbing alcohol.
As for vault, UCLA has lacked the required landing control and difficulty (having to rely on Bynum's arabian and Pua's roller coaster 1.5), often bouncing back on fulls and hoping to get a 9.825 out of them. The sticking shoes showed up just once a couple weeks ago to earn UCLA a 49.375, but more often the score has been about 49.1. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but the Bruins will hope to go over 49.2 to keep pace early. None of the teams are starting on particularly strong events, so don't expect anyone to run away with this thing at the beginning.
Utah's beam will be among the key rotations to keep every eye on because of Stover Watch 2016. She may be able to compete beam at Pac-12s after all, and if she's back in form, that bolsters Utah's scoring potential by a solid tenth, maybe more, and seriously reduces the Fall Terror Index. It was rising considerably depending on who was going to have to come into the lineup. Utah has had its share of falls this season, but this isn't among the most terrifying beam lineups in the conference. Lopez is currently doing the best beam work of her career, and if Utah can get at least 9.875s from her, Rowe, and Stover (?), along with two other hits, breaking into 49.300+ range seems doable, at least depending on how some of those early-lineup short splits are being evaluated. If the Utes emerge from beam in the first rotation with a true lead, that significantly fuels their chances because they'll be heading off to higher-scoring, lower-risk events from here. If it's 49.1 or lower, ring all the bells because it's feeding time for the vultures.
Afternoon session 4:00 ET/1:00 PT
Evening session 9:00 ET/6:00 PT
The Pac-12 should take pride this season in winning the award for the weirdest conference championship scenario. Stanford is the #6 seed and competing in the "who even are you?" afternoon relegation session in spite of being quite a realistic title contender and possible winner, which if nothing else, will serve to make sure we all pay more attention to the afternoon session instead of getting distracted by the simultaneous Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC action. Fun fact: there will be at least 30 minutes during which all four of those championships are going on at the same time. Well, we've had a good life.
Stanford's last meet featured a relative crushing of Georgia and UCLA, so if that's any indication, Stanford is currently in the midst of pulling a Stanford once again this year. But, let's begin with the ones who were good all season long and qualified for the coveted evening session.
EVENING SESSION
Utah, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State
Once again, Utah has earned the top seed in the conference on the back of resolutely having the fewest meltdowns. Hooray! Seven straight weeks of 197s coupled with breaking the 197.5 barrier in the last two outings has given the Utes a fairly comfortable ranking lead over the remaining Pac-12 teams, meaning they'll be favorites heading in. Given what UCLA and Stanford can do, however, there shouldn't more than a few tenths in this either way with hit meets all around (ahahahahahaha), so we have at least some reason to hope for excitement. UCLA is capable of busting out a massive day, and after Stanford goes, we'll have the benefit of a legitimate pace standard through which to gauge Utah and UCLA's performances. So, let's break this thing down.
Rotation 1: UCLA vault, Cal bars, Utah beam, Oregon State floor
Event RQS for rotation 1:
Utah 49.290
UCLA 49.165
Oregon State 49.165
Cal 49.110
Of course UCLA is the team that drew its arch-nemesis, Olympic order, meaning the Bruins already have a four-tenth deficit, and the competition is two days away. It actually is probably beneficial to the Bruins as they make their money on beam and floor and would rather end there than begin there, hoping to squeeze out some home-meet level scoring as Cipra and Bynum on floor will be the last routines of the competition, at the end of a long day, once the judges are already halfway through the whiskey bottle. I know. That's not right of me to say. They'll obviously have finished the whiskey by that point and be on to the cooking sherry and rubbing alcohol.
As for vault, UCLA has lacked the required landing control and difficulty (having to rely on Bynum's arabian and Pua's roller coaster 1.5), often bouncing back on fulls and hoping to get a 9.825 out of them. The sticking shoes showed up just once a couple weeks ago to earn UCLA a 49.375, but more often the score has been about 49.1. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but the Bruins will hope to go over 49.2 to keep pace early. None of the teams are starting on particularly strong events, so don't expect anyone to run away with this thing at the beginning.
Utah's beam will be among the key rotations to keep every eye on because of Stover Watch 2016. She may be able to compete beam at Pac-12s after all, and if she's back in form, that bolsters Utah's scoring potential by a solid tenth, maybe more, and seriously reduces the Fall Terror Index. It was rising considerably depending on who was going to have to come into the lineup. Utah has had its share of falls this season, but this isn't among the most terrifying beam lineups in the conference. Lopez is currently doing the best beam work of her career, and if Utah can get at least 9.875s from her, Rowe, and Stover (?), along with two other hits, breaking into 49.300+ range seems doable, at least depending on how some of those early-lineup short splits are being evaluated. If the Utes emerge from beam in the first rotation with a true lead, that significantly fuels their chances because they'll be heading off to higher-scoring, lower-risk events from here. If it's 49.1 or lower, ring all the bells because it's feeding time for the vultures.
January 23, 2016
Saturday Live Blog – [5] UCLA @ Arizona
Saturday, January 23
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Pennsylvania @ Yale
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Cornell @ Cortland
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Cornell @ Cortland
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – UW-Stout, UW-Eau Claire, UW-Oshkosh @
UW-Whitewater - Stream
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Alaska @ Bowling Green - SCORES
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Rutgers @ Nebraska - SCORES
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Washington @ Denver - SCORES
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Ohio State @ Iowa
Today, the Pac-12 schools get their chance to head to the club and get all Ukrainian up in these here beam rotations, though the marks set by Georgia and Alabama yesterday will be pretty tough to beat. Alabama is the clubhouse leader with two falls and a routine-ending injury. Then again, 42% of Georgia's beam routines so far this season have been falls, and 54% have scored under 9.700, so...
After yesterday's Alabama performance, UCLA currently sits in 4th, having put together one of the more complete/least horrifying starts to the season so far, though they would need a 197.350 to move ahead of Michigan in the rankings and are susceptible to being passed by Utah depending how things go today.
January 21, 2016
The Weekend Plans – January 22-24
Apparently, the east coast broke, so some of these teams will not be competing this weekend because they're being preserved in ice for future archaeologists to find. George Washington is out of Saturday's meet, but as of now, the meet is still expected to go ahead. Penn State was supposed to travel to Maryland, but that meet has been postponed because of "as if."
Top 25 schedule + other notables
Top 25 schedule + other notables
Friday, January 22
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [10] Arkansas @ [4] Alabama
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Iowa State, Arizona State @ [2] Oklahoma
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [9] Georgia @ [14] Missouri
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [3] Michigan @ [17] Illinois
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [1] Florida @ [8] Auburn
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [20] Kentucky @ [7] LSU
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Utah State @ [23] Southern Utah
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [13] Boise State, UC Davis @ BYU
Saturday, January 23
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – [5] UCLA @ Arizona
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [11] Oregon State @ [6] Utah
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – *[12] George Washington, [15] New Hampshire, Temple @ Pittsburgh
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Rutgers @ [18] Nebraska
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Michigan State @ [19] Minnesota
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Washington @ [16] Denver
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [25] Ohio State @ Iowa
Sunday, January 24
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [21] Eastern Michigan, Illinois State @ Ball
State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [22] Cal, San Jose State @ [24] Stanford
Live blogging
I'll be here live blogging all the Friday slop as usual—get all your devices and alternate monitors and time machines ready because there will be periods when you want to watch three meets at the same time—as well as UCLA/Arizona on Saturday (but not Oregon State/Utah, just a heads up).
Friday
-Most of the top teams are getting their meets out of the way on Friday, with only the major Pac-12 sides holding out until the weekend. Though the result is in doubt for very few of these meets, many of these teams are coming off nasties of varying severity in their most recent showings, so there are a couple key rotations to watch. Yeah, I'm talking about Georgia's beam. The SEC Network should definitely cut in to Florida/Auburn when Georgia is going on beam with a breaking news update because we all need to see that thing.
-The premier meet of the week is Florida's visit to Auburn because it features the highest-ranked underdog and because I haven't seen a full Auburn meet yet this season. My needs make things important. Florida is the heavy favorite in this one, with a fuller contingent of both starring 9.9s and supporting 9.8s that would have to thrown up a relative splatfest for Auburn to come out on top. The Gators turned in the strongest and most complete performance in the country so far this season in their last meet, though the scoring was crazy-pie, so part of the interest in this meet will be how similarly hit routines are scored away from home. It should be a better indicator of where Florida is at this point in the season.
Perhaps surprisingly, or not, the floor rotation is the biggest question for Florida so far this year, once again last weekend featuring three great routines and three weak routines. Bridgey will chug along and get into form eventually, but that is a lineup that looks a step behind where it could be given the quality of Baker, Sloan, and Boren. Right now, they're just missing that DLO from Wang or piked full-in from Spicer, or even the 9.850 that Boyce could bring in the first spot to make this a complete and dominant lineup 1-6. For a championship side, everyone in the floor lineup should be a possible 9.900. We've seen Florida, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, etc. do that recently, but that's not the case for Florida right now. That wouldn't be a real problem until Super Six, because this floor lineup is still great, but it's something to keep in mind.
For Auburn, the first couple meets have been fine but not ideal. At this point, the team is still expecting to count some 9.7s and will need more time to develop routines from Krippner and Engler into 9.825-9.850 early-lineup options, rendering a 9.750 a drop-score rather than a phew-score. It will take more than a single January to get to that place, but those are the freshmen I'm watching with the biggest vulture-eyes in this meet. It has been encouraging to see Abby Milliet develop into a true and viable second-in-command to Atkinson on bars and beam (she even did floor last week). The question about Auburn this season is whether this will be a complete contending team or just the Caitlin Atkinson show, especially on bars and beam in the absence of Megan Walker. Milliet has already stepped up the quality from last year to fill that role.
Live blogging
I'll be here live blogging all the Friday slop as usual—get all your devices and alternate monitors and time machines ready because there will be periods when you want to watch three meets at the same time—as well as UCLA/Arizona on Saturday (but not Oregon State/Utah, just a heads up).
Friday
-Most of the top teams are getting their meets out of the way on Friday, with only the major Pac-12 sides holding out until the weekend. Though the result is in doubt for very few of these meets, many of these teams are coming off nasties of varying severity in their most recent showings, so there are a couple key rotations to watch. Yeah, I'm talking about Georgia's beam. The SEC Network should definitely cut in to Florida/Auburn when Georgia is going on beam with a breaking news update because we all need to see that thing.
-The premier meet of the week is Florida's visit to Auburn because it features the highest-ranked underdog and because I haven't seen a full Auburn meet yet this season. My needs make things important. Florida is the heavy favorite in this one, with a fuller contingent of both starring 9.9s and supporting 9.8s that would have to thrown up a relative splatfest for Auburn to come out on top. The Gators turned in the strongest and most complete performance in the country so far this season in their last meet, though the scoring was crazy-pie, so part of the interest in this meet will be how similarly hit routines are scored away from home. It should be a better indicator of where Florida is at this point in the season.
Perhaps surprisingly, or not, the floor rotation is the biggest question for Florida so far this year, once again last weekend featuring three great routines and three weak routines. Bridgey will chug along and get into form eventually, but that is a lineup that looks a step behind where it could be given the quality of Baker, Sloan, and Boren. Right now, they're just missing that DLO from Wang or piked full-in from Spicer, or even the 9.850 that Boyce could bring in the first spot to make this a complete and dominant lineup 1-6. For a championship side, everyone in the floor lineup should be a possible 9.900. We've seen Florida, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, etc. do that recently, but that's not the case for Florida right now. That wouldn't be a real problem until Super Six, because this floor lineup is still great, but it's something to keep in mind.
For Auburn, the first couple meets have been fine but not ideal. At this point, the team is still expecting to count some 9.7s and will need more time to develop routines from Krippner and Engler into 9.825-9.850 early-lineup options, rendering a 9.750 a drop-score rather than a phew-score. It will take more than a single January to get to that place, but those are the freshmen I'm watching with the biggest vulture-eyes in this meet. It has been encouraging to see Abby Milliet develop into a true and viable second-in-command to Atkinson on bars and beam (she even did floor last week). The question about Auburn this season is whether this will be a complete contending team or just the Caitlin Atkinson show, especially on bars and beam in the absence of Megan Walker. Milliet has already stepped up the quality from last year to fill that role.
May 10, 2015
The Position Has Been Filled
All of those coaching vacancies we had just a few days ago are disappearing. Because they have to. This is such a vital period of the year for recruiting, and a team like Florida cannot afford to go even a month without a head coach in place. The longer they're without a head coach to snatch those recruits up, the prettier UCLA, Oklahoma, and Alabama start to look. Someone absolutely had to be in place by JO Nationals.
So, as Florida announced yesterday, former Auburn associate head coach Jenny Rowland has been hired to take over the position of Rhonda 2. Jenny Rowland's was one of the first names bandied about once Rhonda resigned because she is among the biggest rising-star associate/assistants in the country, is a Rhonda favorite, and seems to fit the profile of a replacement Rhonda pretty exactly, considering her age, competition history, coaching history, and areas of expertise. It's a logical fit, and if she does decide to keep the same assistants, their strengths would complement each other very well. Rowland's best recent claim to awesomeness is her role as Auburn's beam coach. That beam lineup this past season was on it.
Florida is clearly not going for a sea change here. They're hoping for Rhonda Part 2, which may provide a few more initial challenges of the "but that's not how Rhonda used to do it!" variety for those expecting her to be an exact clone, but ultimately may result in less boat-rocking than some other choices would have. Still, she is new to the program, so some degree of uprooting is inevitable. She will need to change certain things to fit her style and develop the program identity she wants. Everyone else will have to adjust. It won't be the same situation as Alabama this year or Utah next year, with new leaders who are more than familiar with the current system and clearly and openly want to keep things the same.
I suppose the one knock against Jenny Rowland is that she hasn't been a head coach before, but meh. Many of the most successful current coaches were not head coaches before they took over their positions, and she's hardly new to the world of top-program college gymnastics and the expectations of that. Inevitable growing pains? Sure. Major stumbling block? I seriously doubt it.
Not to be completely overshadowed (that much), Tabitha Yim has also been announced as the new head coach at Arizona to follow Bill Ryden after he "chose to resign." I'm slightly obsessed with Tabitha Yim, so I'm all about this decision. What's the Arizona choreography going to be like now? There's a little bit more reason to have "enough experience?" questions in Tabitha's case because she hasn't been around very long and hasn't held a leadership coaching position at a program before (in my mind she has still been in that "recent former team member, #3 coach on the team" slot), but at the same time, she's Tabitha Yim. Don't bet against that. It's an exciting choice that helps usher in the newest generation of coaches, and I'm eager to see what she does to try to change a program that has stagnated in that 15-20 ranking territory. It's time to have higher hopes and Tabitha Yim-level expectations for Arizona. Hopefully, she does not bring with her Stanford's general attitude of unnecessary secrecy around the program if she wants to build it into something more.
April 2, 2015
Columbus Regional Preview
On to the last one! Ah, the 6-7 regional. Doesn't it seem like UCLA and Michigan are always in this regional? It hasn't been this exact setup, but either UCLA or Michigan has been in the 6th seed's regional every year since 2010, which is as far back as I have the energy to look. Weird. Meaningless, but weird. It's like their home. And they both should feel pretty comfortable in this competition. This regional is right in the heart of the busiest part of Saturday, beginning at 6:00 ET/3:00 PT, so UCLA and Michigan will have to put together some really good catastrophes to be sure to garner our attention over three other simultaneous meets. UCLA, I believe in you.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Michigan (bars)
[7] UCLA (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (beam)
Central Michigan (bye before floor)
Kentucky (vault)
Ohio State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Western Michigan (Anna Corbett - AA; Kelsey Hood - AA; Jessi Buis - vault; Jessie Peszek - bars), Eastern Michigan (Anna Willette - AA; Carrina Lo Bello - AA), Bowling Green (Alyssa Nocella - AA), and Kent State (Rachel Stypinski - beam, floor).
Michigan and UCLA
I've been waiting to say that I was wrong about Michigan until the important meets actually happen, but I'm pretty sure I was wrong about Michigan. I thought this would be a ranked-10th, just-happy-to-make-nationals kind of season, but it has been much better than that and the expectations should be much higher than that. Michigan has been the most reliable and consistent team in the NCAA this year and has the distinct honor of being the only team to have scored a 49 on beam in every single meet. Consider my jaw on the floor, especially given the way beam has gone the last couple seasons, keeping them out of Super Six for two straight years and keeping them out of nationals the year before. It hasn't been pretty. Now it's pretty! Or at least safe!
And now, as if I haven't sufficiently jinxed this team enough, qualification should be a very comfortable assignment. Michigan's low this season is a 196.600, and that score is almost always good enough to make it out of regionals. I expect a solid 197. The more interesting thing for the Wolverines right now (as long as there are no falls on Saturday...), is where they stand in the Super Six race. Right now, they're 6th in the country and seeded to make the final, which would be a huge accomplishment, but that spot seems so wildly up for grabs. Among these contending teams from #6 on downward, there's very little difference at the moment, so hopefully we'll learn a little bit more about which teams have the most Super Six in them based on these regional performances. We'll get a pretty good sense of it by directly comparing Michigan and UCLA here.
In the race to win this regional, it's going to be Michigan's solidity against UCLA's star power. UCLA has more potential 9.950s. If we take the season as a whole, UCLA has recorded 26 9.950s to Michigan's 15, and the two teams that have competed in the same number of meets and recorded nearly the same RQS. Michigan's scores tend to be more even, while UCLA tends to ride the huge potential at the end of the lineups. For the Bruins to come out on top in this meet, those stars will have to show up, especially on beam and bars. If the big, bad beam trio hits to capability, Michigan doesn't have the scores to match. That's UCLA's best opportunity to open up a lead. On bars, UCLA is very reliant on Peng and Peszek to hit and stick to get the scores. Bars should be the most interesting event comparison (and we'll get it right at the start of the meet) because Michigan has the stronger comprehensive lineup, while UCLA anchors with the two biggest potential bars scores in the regional, or two of the three with all deference to Brianna Brown. Peng and Peszek can get those 9.950s.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Michigan (bars)
[7] UCLA (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (beam)
Central Michigan (bye before floor)
Kentucky (vault)
Ohio State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Western Michigan (Anna Corbett - AA; Kelsey Hood - AA; Jessi Buis - vault; Jessie Peszek - bars), Eastern Michigan (Anna Willette - AA; Carrina Lo Bello - AA), Bowling Green (Alyssa Nocella - AA), and Kent State (Rachel Stypinski - beam, floor).
Michigan and UCLA
I've been waiting to say that I was wrong about Michigan until the important meets actually happen, but I'm pretty sure I was wrong about Michigan. I thought this would be a ranked-10th, just-happy-to-make-nationals kind of season, but it has been much better than that and the expectations should be much higher than that. Michigan has been the most reliable and consistent team in the NCAA this year and has the distinct honor of being the only team to have scored a 49 on beam in every single meet. Consider my jaw on the floor, especially given the way beam has gone the last couple seasons, keeping them out of Super Six for two straight years and keeping them out of nationals the year before. It hasn't been pretty. Now it's pretty! Or at least safe!
And now, as if I haven't sufficiently jinxed this team enough, qualification should be a very comfortable assignment. Michigan's low this season is a 196.600, and that score is almost always good enough to make it out of regionals. I expect a solid 197. The more interesting thing for the Wolverines right now (as long as there are no falls on Saturday...), is where they stand in the Super Six race. Right now, they're 6th in the country and seeded to make the final, which would be a huge accomplishment, but that spot seems so wildly up for grabs. Among these contending teams from #6 on downward, there's very little difference at the moment, so hopefully we'll learn a little bit more about which teams have the most Super Six in them based on these regional performances. We'll get a pretty good sense of it by directly comparing Michigan and UCLA here.
In the race to win this regional, it's going to be Michigan's solidity against UCLA's star power. UCLA has more potential 9.950s. If we take the season as a whole, UCLA has recorded 26 9.950s to Michigan's 15, and the two teams that have competed in the same number of meets and recorded nearly the same RQS. Michigan's scores tend to be more even, while UCLA tends to ride the huge potential at the end of the lineups. For the Bruins to come out on top in this meet, those stars will have to show up, especially on beam and bars. If the big, bad beam trio hits to capability, Michigan doesn't have the scores to match. That's UCLA's best opportunity to open up a lead. On bars, UCLA is very reliant on Peng and Peszek to hit and stick to get the scores. Bars should be the most interesting event comparison (and we'll get it right at the start of the meet) because Michigan has the stronger comprehensive lineup, while UCLA anchors with the two biggest potential bars scores in the regional, or two of the three with all deference to Brianna Brown. Peng and Peszek can get those 9.950s.
March 19, 2015
Pac-12 Championship Preview
EVENING SESSION (Utah, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford):
Now that Utah is part of the Pac-12, it seems like we always go into the Pac-12 Championship with pretty much the same story. Utah is the highest-ranked and most consistent team, the safest pick to win, but UCLA might be the more talented group if they can actually put it together. Stanford is the dangerous floater who has enough concentrated pretty to beat anyone on any day but might also fall 100 times, and Oregon State always looks like the fourth-best option but then sometimes wins. Every time I've done a preview of Pac-12 Championships, it has been a variation on that same story. This time, it's pretty much the same setup again, except Utah enters in a stronger place compared to the last few years. This year's Utah team is sturdier on beam and even deeper on vault (not to mention the bonus of being home team), and it would be an upset if Utah fails to win. Let's break this thing down by rotation.
Rotation 1 (Utah vault, UCLA bars, Oregon State beam, Stanford floor)
The rotation order couldn't have worked out better in terms of giving us an early sense of who's really in the meet. We'll know after the first rotation which teams are legitimate challengers for the title because the Utes begin on their best event while the three other teams all begin on their weakest events. The teams that haven't figured out their weakness will be in a 0.500 hole after 11 minutes, and it's hard to see a team coming back from that without the help of a Utah mistake.
A 0.500 hole after the first rotation is a realistic possibility because vault is the one event where Utah can truly pull away from the field. The Utes are the #1 team in the country on vault and have been breaking 49.500 all over the place, especially at home. They'll need to show that 49.500 vaulting again on Saturday. Sure, they can win this meet without hitting 49.500 on vault, but looking toward nationals, there's no way Utah contends with the top three without some 49.500 vaulting, at least 49.500. They have too many 9.9s to expect any less, with the usual big three of Dabritz, Delaney, and Wilson, who now have the benefit of nearly equivalent vaults from Lee and Partyka.
UCLA will need to keep things relatively close at the outset on bars, and has the talent to do so, but bars has been a real adventure this year. An adventure called The Chronicles of 9.650. Francis has been a shining beacon of stuck double pikes in the first spot, but for the Bruins, the focus will be on getting through the next three routines intact so that they can hand things off to the 9.9s from Peszek and Lee. Because Peszek and Lee have such high scoring potential, UCLA can get away with 9.825-9.850s from Meraz, Mossett, and DeJesus (DeJesus has the potential for more but has looked sloppier this season) and still be in reasonable contention for a 49.400, but they have to be 9.825s. Not those 9.6s and 9.7s.
It has been a somewhat similar story for Oregon State this year on beam. Beam hasn't been a great event for the Beavs post-Leslie Mak, but it really should be much better. Maddie Gardiner and Chelsea Tang are both excellent beamers for realistic 9.9s, so if everyone else can get their 9.825s, that makes for a solid rotation score that can keep them in contention as they go to the higher-scoring events. The problem is how infrequently that has actually happened. Too often, they've been caught by a little inconsistency and more than a little case of the early-rotation 9.7s. It will be a recurring theme that Oregon State is just a couple early-lineup routines away from being a really good team.
As for Stanford on floor, it's all about the Ebee. No rotation in this competition needs a single gymnast more than Stanford's floor needs Price. Once again this season, Stanford has been a little too average and flat on floor. There's just not enough going on there. They can pull together a rotation of 9.850s, but that's not competitive with the teams throwing up easy 9.9s in spots 4, 5, and 6. Price has competed on floor once this year, performed a medium-quality routine by her standards, and scored a 9.975. If she's available, 49.3s-49.4s are suddenly completely doable. It not, that puts so much pressure on bars and beam to be perfect at the end of the meet because they will be giving up ground right from the start.
Now that Utah is part of the Pac-12, it seems like we always go into the Pac-12 Championship with pretty much the same story. Utah is the highest-ranked and most consistent team, the safest pick to win, but UCLA might be the more talented group if they can actually put it together. Stanford is the dangerous floater who has enough concentrated pretty to beat anyone on any day but might also fall 100 times, and Oregon State always looks like the fourth-best option but then sometimes wins. Every time I've done a preview of Pac-12 Championships, it has been a variation on that same story. This time, it's pretty much the same setup again, except Utah enters in a stronger place compared to the last few years. This year's Utah team is sturdier on beam and even deeper on vault (not to mention the bonus of being home team), and it would be an upset if Utah fails to win. Let's break this thing down by rotation.
Rotation 1 (Utah vault, UCLA bars, Oregon State beam, Stanford floor)
The rotation order couldn't have worked out better in terms of giving us an early sense of who's really in the meet. We'll know after the first rotation which teams are legitimate challengers for the title because the Utes begin on their best event while the three other teams all begin on their weakest events. The teams that haven't figured out their weakness will be in a 0.500 hole after 11 minutes, and it's hard to see a team coming back from that without the help of a Utah mistake.
A 0.500 hole after the first rotation is a realistic possibility because vault is the one event where Utah can truly pull away from the field. The Utes are the #1 team in the country on vault and have been breaking 49.500 all over the place, especially at home. They'll need to show that 49.500 vaulting again on Saturday. Sure, they can win this meet without hitting 49.500 on vault, but looking toward nationals, there's no way Utah contends with the top three without some 49.500 vaulting, at least 49.500. They have too many 9.9s to expect any less, with the usual big three of Dabritz, Delaney, and Wilson, who now have the benefit of nearly equivalent vaults from Lee and Partyka.
UCLA will need to keep things relatively close at the outset on bars, and has the talent to do so, but bars has been a real adventure this year. An adventure called The Chronicles of 9.650. Francis has been a shining beacon of stuck double pikes in the first spot, but for the Bruins, the focus will be on getting through the next three routines intact so that they can hand things off to the 9.9s from Peszek and Lee. Because Peszek and Lee have such high scoring potential, UCLA can get away with 9.825-9.850s from Meraz, Mossett, and DeJesus (DeJesus has the potential for more but has looked sloppier this season) and still be in reasonable contention for a 49.400, but they have to be 9.825s. Not those 9.6s and 9.7s.
It has been a somewhat similar story for Oregon State this year on beam. Beam hasn't been a great event for the Beavs post-Leslie Mak, but it really should be much better. Maddie Gardiner and Chelsea Tang are both excellent beamers for realistic 9.9s, so if everyone else can get their 9.825s, that makes for a solid rotation score that can keep them in contention as they go to the higher-scoring events. The problem is how infrequently that has actually happened. Too often, they've been caught by a little inconsistency and more than a little case of the early-rotation 9.7s. It will be a recurring theme that Oregon State is just a couple early-lineup routines away from being a really good team.
As for Stanford on floor, it's all about the Ebee. No rotation in this competition needs a single gymnast more than Stanford's floor needs Price. Once again this season, Stanford has been a little too average and flat on floor. There's just not enough going on there. They can pull together a rotation of 9.850s, but that's not competitive with the teams throwing up easy 9.9s in spots 4, 5, and 6. Price has competed on floor once this year, performed a medium-quality routine by her standards, and scored a 9.975. If she's available, 49.3s-49.4s are suddenly completely doable. It not, that puts so much pressure on bars and beam to be perfect at the end of the meet because they will be giving up ground right from the start.
January 19, 2015
March 31, 2014
Baton Rouge, LA Regional Preview
The LSU Tigers will have the luxury of staying at home for their regional for the first time since 2008, though this year they would be the favorite in any location. There were some other years in there when they really could have used the home advantage. LSU and their faithful will be playing host to another of our close contests for the second advancing spot, with Stanford and Auburn coming to town with significant work to do. The meet begins at 5 ET/2 PT.
Competing teams (starting event)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[10] Stanford (bye before floor)
[13] Auburn (vault)
[21] Arizona (floor)
[27] Kent State (bars)
[36] Iowa State (beam)
Individual competitors are from Michigan State (Alina Cartwright, Lisa Burt, Elena Logoski - floor), Bowling Green (Alyssa Nocella, Gina Locigno, Megan Harrison), Western Michigan (Jessi Buis - vault, Shelby MacDonald - bars), and Eastern Michigan (Anna Willette - beam).
The Favorite
Even though LSU is the clear favorite to advance and should have no trouble winning this home regional, I'm a bit more interested in exactly how LSU fares than I am for some of the other locks because I think the performance (not so much the score, but the performance) will tell us a lot about whether LSU will head to nationals as a true contender for the title on the same level as the Florida and Alabama crowd, or if they will be taking on more of the identity of the prime spoiler who lurks in that position of fourth favorite, ready to pounce on a team making mistakes - sort of the identity Oklahoma has had for the last several seasons.
This 2014 LSU team has the credentials to make a weighty argument as a true contender: ranked in the top 3 all season, spent some time at #1, is the only team never to drop below 197, has defeated Alabama and Oklahoma already - that's legitimate. At the same time, we saw a team at SECs that looked perfectly good but also a clear notch behind Alabama and Florida. Regionals will be an opportunity to learn what our expectations should be. Right now, I think LSU is the fourth-best team in the nation, and on the one hand, finishing fourth would be a tremendous accomplishment and the best for the program since 1988 (they've never finished higher than fourth), but at the same time, they've been in the top three all season, so that result would still be sort of a letdown.
It should come as no surprise that the main dictator in this true contender vs. spoiler issue will be how well LSU performs on bars and beam. As it has always been. We didn't get to see all that many of the LSU routines during the broadcast of SECs, but while we saw some exceptional vaults (Jessie Jordan's vault is such an asset because the other contenders can't match that early 9.950) and Hall's hit floor, most of the bars and beam routines that we saw looked middle-of-the-pack, with enough deductions to justify 9.850s. LSU had two 9.9s on bars and beam, compared to Alabama's eight and Florida's six. Tremendous strides have been made on beam, but the fall from Jordan meant they had to count Dickson's 9.725, which exposed that beam is still a tenuous experience where one error can knock them out of contention. At regionals, let's watch for those stuck bars landings and a few more early-rotation beam routines where the competitors don't looked utterly, completely, just-left-the-DMV relieved to stay on the beam.
Competing teams (starting event)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[10] Stanford (bye before floor)
[13] Auburn (vault)
[21] Arizona (floor)
[27] Kent State (bars)
[36] Iowa State (beam)
Individual competitors are from Michigan State (Alina Cartwright, Lisa Burt, Elena Logoski - floor), Bowling Green (Alyssa Nocella, Gina Locigno, Megan Harrison), Western Michigan (Jessi Buis - vault, Shelby MacDonald - bars), and Eastern Michigan (Anna Willette - beam).
The Favorite
Even though LSU is the clear favorite to advance and should have no trouble winning this home regional, I'm a bit more interested in exactly how LSU fares than I am for some of the other locks because I think the performance (not so much the score, but the performance) will tell us a lot about whether LSU will head to nationals as a true contender for the title on the same level as the Florida and Alabama crowd, or if they will be taking on more of the identity of the prime spoiler who lurks in that position of fourth favorite, ready to pounce on a team making mistakes - sort of the identity Oklahoma has had for the last several seasons.
This 2014 LSU team has the credentials to make a weighty argument as a true contender: ranked in the top 3 all season, spent some time at #1, is the only team never to drop below 197, has defeated Alabama and Oklahoma already - that's legitimate. At the same time, we saw a team at SECs that looked perfectly good but also a clear notch behind Alabama and Florida. Regionals will be an opportunity to learn what our expectations should be. Right now, I think LSU is the fourth-best team in the nation, and on the one hand, finishing fourth would be a tremendous accomplishment and the best for the program since 1988 (they've never finished higher than fourth), but at the same time, they've been in the top three all season, so that result would still be sort of a letdown.
It should come as no surprise that the main dictator in this true contender vs. spoiler issue will be how well LSU performs on bars and beam. As it has always been. We didn't get to see all that many of the LSU routines during the broadcast of SECs, but while we saw some exceptional vaults (Jessie Jordan's vault is such an asset because the other contenders can't match that early 9.950) and Hall's hit floor, most of the bars and beam routines that we saw looked middle-of-the-pack, with enough deductions to justify 9.850s. LSU had two 9.9s on bars and beam, compared to Alabama's eight and Florida's six. Tremendous strides have been made on beam, but the fall from Jordan meant they had to count Dickson's 9.725, which exposed that beam is still a tenuous experience where one error can knock them out of contention. At regionals, let's watch for those stuck bars landings and a few more early-rotation beam routines where the competitors don't looked utterly, completely, just-left-the-DMV relieved to stay on the beam.
April 5, 2013
Columbus Regional Preview
We're nearly there. During a frantic five-hour period tomorrow, everything we need to know about nationals will be decided. I'll be there for every moment, of course, and since it will be impossible to keep and eye on everything at the same time, I hope you all will help keep everyone updated. One final regional to preview before the chatter ends and things start getting good.
Competing teams (starting event):
[6] UCLA (vault)
[7] LSU (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (bye before floor)
[20] Ohio State (floor)
[24] Central Michigan (bars)
[31] NC State (beam)
The Favorites
By all logic, this should be a straightforward meet in which UCLA and LSU advance to nationals as the indisputably strongest teams, but of all the regionals, I feel the least confident about how this one will play out. It smells dangerous.
UCLA enters as the higher seed, but it could very well go either way between the two. If they both hit to capability, the meet will come down to minor details, but if that's the case, it won't matter because they will both be swimming through to the next round. This year's Bruins are rather more well-rounded than teams of recent years, while LSU is a terror on vault and floor and quite a degree more nerve-wracking and 9.7ish on bars and beam. In that way, this is similar to the Minnesota/Auburn contest in Gainesville but on a larger scale. I trust UCLA more to hit (it's an odd sentence, I know), but LSU will have the bigger rotations.
Competing teams (starting event):
[6] UCLA (vault)
[7] LSU (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (bye before floor)
[20] Ohio State (floor)
[24] Central Michigan (bars)
[31] NC State (beam)
The Favorites
By all logic, this should be a straightforward meet in which UCLA and LSU advance to nationals as the indisputably strongest teams, but of all the regionals, I feel the least confident about how this one will play out. It smells dangerous.
UCLA enters as the higher seed, but it could very well go either way between the two. If they both hit to capability, the meet will come down to minor details, but if that's the case, it won't matter because they will both be swimming through to the next round. This year's Bruins are rather more well-rounded than teams of recent years, while LSU is a terror on vault and floor and quite a degree more nerve-wracking and 9.7ish on bars and beam. In that way, this is similar to the Minnesota/Auburn contest in Gainesville but on a larger scale. I trust UCLA more to hit (it's an odd sentence, I know), but LSU will have the bigger rotations.
April 5, 2012
Seattle Regional Preview
Our fourth Regional up for debate will be hosted by the University of Washington at 7:00 ET / 4:00 PT on Saturday and features [4] Alabama, [9] LSU, [16] Arizona, [23] Washington, [30] Iowa, and [36] Central Michigan.
The Favorite:
Not to sound too repetitive, but like the other top seeds previewed so far (we'll have a bit more discussion for the final two Regionals), I don't see Alabama having any trouble at all taking first place at this Regional. One of the biggest issues for Alabama toward the end of the season has been establishing the best beam and floor lineups, but while the team certainly struggled on beam at SECs, I do think the lineup that competed was the correct choice. Gutierrez and Sledge have the potential for fine routines, but they have not proven the reliability that some of the others have. Milliner is still a bit of a question, and I would like to see Jacob regain some of her form from last postseason, but this is the best of the available options. At any rate, I don't expect Alabama to have a fall at Regionals, so they're fine.
The biggest factor in determining Alabama's success likely will not be a single event but will be their ability to stick landings across four events. Alabama should always be neck and neck with UCLA for the top score on vault, but they haven't stuck well in weeks. Now, they recently got a 49.475 at home, but if you watch the vaults, there were way too many tenths given away on landings. Similarly, the first three bar workers are not standouts and will incur definite deductions on handstands (Demeo's half turn is just asking for it, and I question the routine composition for that reason), so stuck landings are a must. I don't see any of the first three going above a 9.800 without a stick.
The other major key for Alabama is Geralen Stack-Eaton. This team is very reliant on its seniors and will not be successful if both don't have a great meet at the same time. At Nationals, Stack-Eaton should be in the running for the AA title because she can go 9.900 on every event, but the team cannot afford her to have any stinker routines like she did at SECs. Those routines (along with Priess on beam) were the difference between first and second. If Stack-Eaton isn't getting 9.9s, then who is?
The Favorite:
Not to sound too repetitive, but like the other top seeds previewed so far (we'll have a bit more discussion for the final two Regionals), I don't see Alabama having any trouble at all taking first place at this Regional. One of the biggest issues for Alabama toward the end of the season has been establishing the best beam and floor lineups, but while the team certainly struggled on beam at SECs, I do think the lineup that competed was the correct choice. Gutierrez and Sledge have the potential for fine routines, but they have not proven the reliability that some of the others have. Milliner is still a bit of a question, and I would like to see Jacob regain some of her form from last postseason, but this is the best of the available options. At any rate, I don't expect Alabama to have a fall at Regionals, so they're fine.
The biggest factor in determining Alabama's success likely will not be a single event but will be their ability to stick landings across four events. Alabama should always be neck and neck with UCLA for the top score on vault, but they haven't stuck well in weeks. Now, they recently got a 49.475 at home, but if you watch the vaults, there were way too many tenths given away on landings. Similarly, the first three bar workers are not standouts and will incur definite deductions on handstands (Demeo's half turn is just asking for it, and I question the routine composition for that reason), so stuck landings are a must. I don't see any of the first three going above a 9.800 without a stick.
The other major key for Alabama is Geralen Stack-Eaton. This team is very reliant on its seniors and will not be successful if both don't have a great meet at the same time. At Nationals, Stack-Eaton should be in the running for the AA title because she can go 9.900 on every event, but the team cannot afford her to have any stinker routines like she did at SECs. Those routines (along with Priess on beam) were the difference between first and second. If Stack-Eaton isn't getting 9.9s, then who is?
March 21, 2012
Pac-12 Championships Preview
This year, the Pac-12 will be our guinea pig conference (along with the Big 10) for the eight-team, two-session championship format. I'm very much in favor of this format because it gets rid of those insufferable byes and allows us to pay less attention to, for instance, the first session because it will be going on at the same time as SECs. Not everyone loves this format. Jay Clark would prefer a two-day format similar to National Championships. That seems entirely unnecessary and exhausting.
In the Pac-12 this year, the winner will most likely be Utah or UCLA. Oregon State has an outside chance to repeat, but I think they will need some counting falls for that to happen. If everyone hits, then the winner will start with a U. Which U it will be is anyone's guess right now, which will make for a fun duel coming down to the final rotation (with no byes!).
And yet, picking how the teams will stack up is a tough prospect, so let's look at what we have, event by event. On event rankings, I'm not going by the actual rankings, just my own perceptions of quality and potential.
Vault:
This is the easy one. UCLA has the big edge over the other teams in the conference and will need to ride an advantage on this event if they are to take the title. Tauny Frattone is coming off a 10 on senior day, but she can usually go 9.925-9.950 under normal circumstances with a stick, which she has been doing the last few weeks. Frattone is also in an advantageous position since UCLA directly follows Utah on vault. If the judges go big for a Robarts stick on the Omelianchik, they have to do the same for a Frattone stick. UCLA also sports Olivia Courtney, who has the amplitude and distance to score 9.9 for a non-stick, and Vanessa Zamarripa, who has been vaulting poorly for 9.9s for weeks now. If she actually finds her landing, the score will be huge.
In addition to the aforementioned Robarts, Utah also has clean vaults Kailah Delaney and Georgia Dabritz that can go 9.900. This will be enough to keep them ahead of any of the rest of the teams, but the earlier workers don't quite have the dynamics to challenge UCLA. Peszek and Larson will very likely outscore Lothrop and McAllister. Utah will probably top out around 49.400 on a good day, while that would be a weak score for UCLA.
Down the list, there's not so much impressive vaulting. I put Oregon State below Stanford because OSU just doesn't have much amplitude on this event, and Ivana Hong is really starting to find her form on the FTY for Stanford, which could make the difference. It's close between the two, though.
In the Pac-12 this year, the winner will most likely be Utah or UCLA. Oregon State has an outside chance to repeat, but I think they will need some counting falls for that to happen. If everyone hits, then the winner will start with a U. Which U it will be is anyone's guess right now, which will make for a fun duel coming down to the final rotation (with no byes!).
And yet, picking how the teams will stack up is a tough prospect, so let's look at what we have, event by event. On event rankings, I'm not going by the actual rankings, just my own perceptions of quality and potential.
Vault:
1. UCLA
2. Utah
3. Stanford
4. Oregon State
5. Arizona
6. Washington
7. Arizona State
8. Cal
This is the easy one. UCLA has the big edge over the other teams in the conference and will need to ride an advantage on this event if they are to take the title. Tauny Frattone is coming off a 10 on senior day, but she can usually go 9.925-9.950 under normal circumstances with a stick, which she has been doing the last few weeks. Frattone is also in an advantageous position since UCLA directly follows Utah on vault. If the judges go big for a Robarts stick on the Omelianchik, they have to do the same for a Frattone stick. UCLA also sports Olivia Courtney, who has the amplitude and distance to score 9.9 for a non-stick, and Vanessa Zamarripa, who has been vaulting poorly for 9.9s for weeks now. If she actually finds her landing, the score will be huge.
In addition to the aforementioned Robarts, Utah also has clean vaults Kailah Delaney and Georgia Dabritz that can go 9.900. This will be enough to keep them ahead of any of the rest of the teams, but the earlier workers don't quite have the dynamics to challenge UCLA. Peszek and Larson will very likely outscore Lothrop and McAllister. Utah will probably top out around 49.400 on a good day, while that would be a weak score for UCLA.
Down the list, there's not so much impressive vaulting. I put Oregon State below Stanford because OSU just doesn't have much amplitude on this event, and Ivana Hong is really starting to find her form on the FTY for Stanford, which could make the difference. It's close between the two, though.
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