As I did with regionals, I've put together a comparison of relevant scores for the teams in each semifinal grouping at nationals, with each score followed by the team's ranking within its semifinal.
In addition to the event statistics, I've added in each team's highest score per event from regionals to tell us which teams are most likely to get that huge 9.950 at the end to save a rotation, but I've also included a total of the lowest counting scores on each event from regionals. I like the lowest counting score as a reference point because so many of these teams have top-scoring gymnasts hanging around that team titles are often decided by what happens early in the lineups.
Afternoon session:
OKLAHOMA
Regional score: 197.715 [2]
RQS: 197.775 [1]
Season high: 198.175 [2]
Regular season average: 197.513 [1]
VT average: 49.481 [2]
VT RQS: 49.525 [2]
VT regional score: 49.700 [1]
UB average: 49.315 [3]
UB RQS: 49.470 [2]
UB regional score: 49.175 [6]
BB average: 49.315 [1]
BB RQS: 49.445 [1]
BB regional score: 49.400 [3]
FX average: 49.418 [2]
FX RQS: 49.520 [1]
FX regional score: 49.450 [3]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.975; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.900; FX - 9.925; TOT - 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.800; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.425 [2]
LSU
Regional score: 198.325 [1]
RQS: 197.720 [2]
Season high: 198.325 [1]
Regular season average: 197.496 [2]
VT average: 49.506 [1]
VT RQS: 49.550 [1]
VT regional score: 49.650 [2]
UB average: 49.333 [2]
UB RQS: 49.430 [3]
UB regional score: 49.425 [2]
BB average: 49.268 [2]
BB RQS: 49.295 [2]
BB regional score: 49.600 [1]
FX average: 49.454 [1]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.650 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.975; FX - 10.000; TOT - 39.825 [1]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.475 [1]
Aside from Oklahoma's bars score from regionals, both Oklahoma and LSU are the favorites based on both recent and season-long performances. For the remaining teams, I have put in blue the areas where each is in the top three among the teams in the semifinal.
GEORGIA
Regional score: 196.375 [6]
RQS: 197.265 [3]
Season high: 197.650 [4]
Regular season average: 197.029 [3]
VT average: 49.342 [3]
VT RQS: 49.415 [3]
VT regional score: 49.425 [3]
UB average: 49.494 [1]
UB RQS: 49.580 [1]
UB regional score: 49.600 [1]
BB average: 49.046 [4]
BB RQS: 49.240 [4]
BB regional score: 48.475 [6]
FX average: 49.097 [5]
FX RQS: 49.280 [4]
FX regional score: 48.875 [6]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.950; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.825; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.250; FX - 9.475; TOT - 38.450 [6]
MICHIGAN
Regional score: 196.750 [4]
RQS: 197.105 [4]
Season high: 197.825 [3]
Regular season average: 196.791 [4]
VT average: 49.298 [4]
VT RQS: 49.365 [4]
VT regional score: 49.200 [4]
UB average: 49.244 [4]
UB RQS: 49.375 [4]
UB regional score: 49.275 [5]
BB average: 48.877 [6]
BB RQS: 49.075 [6]
BB regional score: 48.700 [5]
FX average: 49.369 [3]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.575 [2]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.950; TOT - 39.600 [6]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.750; UB - 9.800; BB - 9.600; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.050 [5]
STANFORD
Regional score: 197.275 [3]
RQS: 196.815 [5]
Season high: 197.275 [5]
Regular season average: 196.400 [5]
VT average: 49.206 [5]
VT RQS: 49.325 [5]
VT regional score: 49.175 [5]
UB average: 49.156 [5]
UB RQS: 49.305 [5]
UB regional score: 49.325 [4]
BB average: 49.108 [3]
BB RQS: 49.260 [3]
BB regional score: 49.450 [2]
FX average: 49.002 [6]
FX RQS: 49.120 [6]
FX regional score: 49.325 [4]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.875; UB - 9.950; BB - 9.925; FX - 9.875; TOT - 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.800; UB - 9.675; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.175 [3]
It's interesting how clear-cut the difference on the apparatuses is among these next three teams. Georgia is all about vault and bars, Michigan is all about floor, and Stanford is all about beam. Stanford's ideal route to Super Six would be identical to what happened at regionals: nail beam and hope that Georgia and Michigan struggle there. For Michigan, it's staying as close as possible on three events and burning down the floor to gain a big edge, and for Georgia, it's building up a big lead early and hoping it holds up.
ILLINOIS
Regional score: 196.600 [5]
RQS: 196.650 [6]
Season high: 197.100 [6]
Regular season average: 196.204 [6]
VT average: 49.034 [6]
VT RQS: 49.155 [6]
VT regional score: 49.025 [6]
UB average: 49.034 [6]
UB RQS: 49.205 [6]
UB regional score: 49.400 [3]
BB average: 49.035 [5]
BB RQS: 49.175 [5]
BB regional score: 49.150 [4]
FX average: 49.131 [4]
FX RQS: 49.240 [5]
FX regional score: 49.025 [5]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.925; BB - 9.900; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.725; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.800; FX - 9.725; TOT - 39.100 [4]
April 9, 2014
April 7, 2014
The Nationals Outlook
And just like that, the regionals are over. We leave 24 more teams in the dust and turn our attention to the big 12 that have managed to advance to compete for the national championship. Today, the rotation order and individual competitor placement was released.
Afternoon Session (starting event): Georgia (vault), Illinois (bye), Michigan (bars), Oklahoma (beam), LSU (bye), Stanford (floor)
Evening Session (starting event): Florida (vault), Alabama (bye), Utah (bars), UCLA (beam), Penn State (bye), Nebraska (floor)
Off the top, it doesn't look like a particularly bad rotation order for anyone. Beam and floor tend to be the most significant starting/ending events, but in the first session, I like Stanford starting on floor and ending on beam, and I always like Oklahoma starting on beam. They'll embrace that position. Is ending on beam trouble for LSU? We'll find out. Georgia got a gift in that rotation order after the regionals near-nightmare. They're like the France of this competition. (World Cup qualifications reference? Anyone?) In the second session, I think Nebraska and Penn State probably would have preferred not to start on floor and end on beam, since beam can be a worry for both. That's a harder rotation for Nebraska, but they got through the same rotation well at regionals, even though beam was just endured.
We have nice battles for the final qualifying spots in each semifinal. If we call Oklahoma and LSU the favorites in the first, then Stanford, Georgia, and Michigan will clashing for the final spot, and the same is the case in the second with Utah, UCLA, and Nebraska if we think of Florida and Alabama as the favorites. If things go as they've gone this season, the second semifinal could end up being a more straightforward affair for Florida, Alabama, and Utah, but I'm not quite ready to bet on that yet. P.S. you guys, is Stanford going to make Super Six?
Of those respective challenging trios, Georgia and UCLA will be ending the meets on the floor while the others will be on byes. Teams always like to finish competing, and score building will be a topic of discussion there. In the unnecessary fact department, Utah has started on bars and finished on vault twice so far this year and twice scored a 197.300.
I'll be doing the whole breakdown in the coming weeks, but I appreciate that this year we have two semifinals with relatively equivalent levels of competitiveness. Last year, one was essentially a slam dunk while the other was a game of thrones.
Afternoon Session (starting event): Georgia (vault), Illinois (bye), Michigan (bars), Oklahoma (beam), LSU (bye), Stanford (floor)
Evening Session (starting event): Florida (vault), Alabama (bye), Utah (bars), UCLA (beam), Penn State (bye), Nebraska (floor)
Off the top, it doesn't look like a particularly bad rotation order for anyone. Beam and floor tend to be the most significant starting/ending events, but in the first session, I like Stanford starting on floor and ending on beam, and I always like Oklahoma starting on beam. They'll embrace that position. Is ending on beam trouble for LSU? We'll find out. Georgia got a gift in that rotation order after the regionals near-nightmare. They're like the France of this competition. (World Cup qualifications reference? Anyone?) In the second session, I think Nebraska and Penn State probably would have preferred not to start on floor and end on beam, since beam can be a worry for both. That's a harder rotation for Nebraska, but they got through the same rotation well at regionals, even though beam was just endured.
We have nice battles for the final qualifying spots in each semifinal. If we call Oklahoma and LSU the favorites in the first, then Stanford, Georgia, and Michigan will clashing for the final spot, and the same is the case in the second with Utah, UCLA, and Nebraska if we think of Florida and Alabama as the favorites. If things go as they've gone this season, the second semifinal could end up being a more straightforward affair for Florida, Alabama, and Utah, but I'm not quite ready to bet on that yet. P.S. you guys, is Stanford going to make Super Six?
Of those respective challenging trios, Georgia and UCLA will be ending the meets on the floor while the others will be on byes. Teams always like to finish competing, and score building will be a topic of discussion there. In the unnecessary fact department, Utah has started on bars and finished on vault twice so far this year and twice scored a 197.300.
I'll be doing the whole breakdown in the coming weeks, but I appreciate that this year we have two semifinals with relatively equivalent levels of competitiveness. Last year, one was essentially a slam dunk while the other was a game of thrones.
April 5, 2014
Regionals Live Blog
It matters, you guys! It finally matters. Starting today, no one can talk to us about how the silver lining of the meet is that they learned exactly what they have to work on. No. There are no silver linings today. You either advance or you don't, and it's all based on your performance right now. Sports!
I think we'll have some upsets today. Not crazy major ones, but surprises. Hopefully we will. Two years ago, all the top 12 seeds went through, and it was a total snoozer. That's the rarity, though. Something crazy almost always happens at regionals. For a quick glance at what to look out for in the mystical Upset Land of Upsets, here's an RQS comparison between the 2nd and 3rd seeds at each regional. Some are more relevant than others.
With all the 197s floating around this year, I'm interested in how may teams will be able to go through with something in the 196s. There's a ton of 197 capability throughout the meets.
Here's the schedule once again, and more of the relevant links are in the previous post:
I think we'll have some upsets today. Not crazy major ones, but surprises. Hopefully we will. Two years ago, all the top 12 seeds went through, and it was a total snoozer. That's the rarity, though. Something crazy almost always happens at regionals. For a quick glance at what to look out for in the mystical Upset Land of Upsets, here's an RQS comparison between the 2nd and 3rd seeds at each regional. Some are more relevant than others.
With all the 197s floating around this year, I'm interested in how may teams will be able to go through with something in the 196s. There's a ton of 197 capability throughout the meets.
Here's the schedule once again, and more of the relevant links are in the previous post:
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – University Park, PA Regional
[1] Florida, [12] Oregon State, [15] Penn State, [23] New Hampshire, [29] Kentucky, [35] Maryland
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Athens, GA Regional
[6] Georgia, [7] Michigan, [18] Central Michigan, [22] Ohio State, [28] NC State, [32] Rutgers
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Baton Rouge, LA Regional
[3] LSU, [10] Stanford, [13] Auburn, [21] Arizona, [27] Kent State, [36] Iowa State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Fayetteville, AR Regional
[5] Utah, [8] UCLA, [17] Arkansas, [24] Arizona State, [30] Utah State, [34] UC Davis
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Minneapolis, MN Regional
[2] Oklahoma, [11] Illinois, [14] Minnesota, [19] California, [26] Southern Utah, [31] San Jose State
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Seattle, WA Regional
[4] Alabama, [9] Nebraska, [16] Boise State, [20] Denver, [25] BYU, [33] Washington
Be wary of
when things are starting because you will lose track of time watching
one meet and miss something important at another. It happens every time.
April 4, 2014
Regionals Are Drawing Nigh, Have Some Links
The regionals are here! The regionals are here!
Gymnastics Christmas may still be a few hours away, but it's time to start preparing with all the links and information you could possibly need for tomorrow. Always be prepared. I'll be around live blogging the whole thing, obviously. Six hours of greatness.
It's going to get pretty busy (I first wrote intense, and then I threw myself into a volcano out of disagreeability - I'm sorry) as the meets get going with four competitions happening simultaneously for much of the day. As a guide to ease following all these meets at once, here is a combined schedule including rough estimates of when each of the teams will be performing on each event, in case there are particular rotations you want to keep an eye on. If you're me, you'll be printing it out and doing some highlighting. This assumes 30 minutes per rotation including warmups, marching, and all the standing around, which hopefully is a generous estimate.
Gymnastics Christmas may still be a few hours away, but it's time to start preparing with all the links and information you could possibly need for tomorrow. Always be prepared. I'll be around live blogging the whole thing, obviously. Six hours of greatness.
It's going to get pretty busy (I first wrote intense, and then I threw myself into a volcano out of disagreeability - I'm sorry) as the meets get going with four competitions happening simultaneously for much of the day. As a guide to ease following all these meets at once, here is a combined schedule including rough estimates of when each of the teams will be performing on each event, in case there are particular rotations you want to keep an eye on. If you're me, you'll be printing it out and doing some highlighting. This assumes 30 minutes per rotation including warmups, marching, and all the standing around, which hopefully is a generous estimate.
And now for all the relevant linkages. Below, I have also included PDF scoresheets for each meet using the most recent lineups for each team, except for a couple specific circumstances.
April 3, 2014
Athens, GA Regional Preview
Now here we are old friends, the final regional. It feels like a long road already, and the meets haven't started yet. Georgia will host a regional for the second time in the last four years, and once again it's the 6/7/18 group (and the third time in four years that Georgia has been in the 6/7/18 regional). The Gym Dogs will welcome Michigan to town to engage in a possible head-to-head nationals preview in one of the earlier starts (4 ET/1 PT).
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Georgia (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (bye before floor)
[18] Central Michigan (vault)
[22] Ohio State (floor)
[28] NC State (bars)
[32] Rutgers (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from West Virginia (Hope Sloanhoffer, Nicolette Swoboda, Alexa Goldberg - bars, Beth Deal - beam), North Carolina (Haley Watts), William & Mary (Brittany Stover), and George Washington (Kayla Carto, Chelsea Raineri - vault, floor).
The Favorites
Of all the regionals, I would deem this the least likely to see an upset, which means it will definitely happen. Georgia and Michigan have performed several steps above the other teams in this competition all year, and the season averages for both teams are higher than the season highs for any of the other schools competing. It would take a confluence of disaster from one end and unexpected greatness from the other to make this one interesting as an upset affair.
But that doesn't mean it isn't interesting. If everything goes to form, we can expect Georgia and Michigan to advance from this competition and meet again in two weeks with a spot in Super Six on the line, so the performances will have significant implications heading into nationals. And it's too close to call right now as to which team is better. Georgia has been more consistent this season and is competing at home, but Michigan has the higher peak score and put in a stronger performance at conference championships. If they're both hitting, they should be fighting it out right to the final rotation.
Unfortunately, injuries are going to be a talking point for both teams. Georgia had to sit Brittany Rogers on vault and floor at SECs after an ankle injury (edit: and she'll miss those events at regionals as well - thanks for the confirmation), and reaching their highest scoring potential requires her at 100% in the AA. While her injury allowed for the emergence of Lauren Johnson on vault with her sudden 9.975 (making lineup order a bit more challenging), they're not as strong without Rogers' 1.5 on an event where they need to squeeze out as much of an advantage as possible. Floor, however, may be Rogers' most important routine this season because of her difficulty and because the Gym Dogs don't have the depth without her. Having to drop Broussard's 9.4 made it impossible for them to keep pace at SECs because they were counting two other 9.7s. In this meet, floor is already an event where Michigan looks to have a solid edge, so Georgia can't count those same 9.7s or they'll be giving up too many tenths to the Wolverines.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Georgia (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (bye before floor)
[18] Central Michigan (vault)
[22] Ohio State (floor)
[28] NC State (bars)
[32] Rutgers (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from West Virginia (Hope Sloanhoffer, Nicolette Swoboda, Alexa Goldberg - bars, Beth Deal - beam), North Carolina (Haley Watts), William & Mary (Brittany Stover), and George Washington (Kayla Carto, Chelsea Raineri - vault, floor).
The Favorites
Of all the regionals, I would deem this the least likely to see an upset, which means it will definitely happen. Georgia and Michigan have performed several steps above the other teams in this competition all year, and the season averages for both teams are higher than the season highs for any of the other schools competing. It would take a confluence of disaster from one end and unexpected greatness from the other to make this one interesting as an upset affair.
But that doesn't mean it isn't interesting. If everything goes to form, we can expect Georgia and Michigan to advance from this competition and meet again in two weeks with a spot in Super Six on the line, so the performances will have significant implications heading into nationals. And it's too close to call right now as to which team is better. Georgia has been more consistent this season and is competing at home, but Michigan has the higher peak score and put in a stronger performance at conference championships. If they're both hitting, they should be fighting it out right to the final rotation.
Unfortunately, injuries are going to be a talking point for both teams. Georgia had to sit Brittany Rogers on vault and floor at SECs after an ankle injury (edit: and she'll miss those events at regionals as well - thanks for the confirmation), and reaching their highest scoring potential requires her at 100% in the AA. While her injury allowed for the emergence of Lauren Johnson on vault with her sudden 9.975 (making lineup order a bit more challenging), they're not as strong without Rogers' 1.5 on an event where they need to squeeze out as much of an advantage as possible. Floor, however, may be Rogers' most important routine this season because of her difficulty and because the Gym Dogs don't have the depth without her. Having to drop Broussard's 9.4 made it impossible for them to keep pace at SECs because they were counting two other 9.7s. In this meet, floor is already an event where Michigan looks to have a solid edge, so Georgia can't count those same 9.7s or they'll be giving up too many tenths to the Wolverines.
April 2, 2014
Fayetteville, AR Regional Preview
From the time I first put together the season schedule and registered who the regional hosts were, Arkansas's meet has stood out as a potentially treacherous one, and now here we are. Arkansas is currently 17th in the country and will play host to a bunch of teams from the west (because regionals make so much sense) - two from Utah, two from California, and one from Arizona. This transplanted regional will begin at 5 ET/2 PT, so it will overlap all the other competitions at some point or another. Be sure to set aside some time to spend with this one.
Competing teams (starting event)
[5] Utah (bye before bars)
[8] UCLA (bye before floor)
[17] Arkansas (vault)
[24] Arizona State (floor)
[30] Utah State (bars)
[34] UC Davis (beam)
The individual competitions are from Illinois-Chicago (Catherine Dion, Gabrille May), Northern Illinois (Kim Gotlund, Amanda Stepp - floor), SEMO (Alyssa Tucker, Taryn Vanderpool), Missouri (Rachel Updike - vault), Texas Woman's (Brittainy Johnson - bars), and Illinois State (Samantha King - beam).
The Favorite
Utah comes into this regional as the favorite, but the Utes' favorite status is not as clear-cut as the other top teams previewed so far. Utah is 2-1 against UCLA this season and has had some struggles throughout the year, so it would be foolhardy to assume any kind of dominance simply based on their #1 seeding.
One of the reasons Utah has steadied as a fairly believable choice to make it back to Super Six is the progress on beam. It's still not a big event for them, and will not be a big event, but they have hit six-for-six in enough meets recently that we can upgrade the rotation to serious-but-stable condition. We'll be monitoring its vital signs throughout the meet, but the prognosis is positive. The Utes are still probably looking at 9.8s for a 49.2 or so, but that should be enough for the moment. Of course, if things take a turn for the dire, the meet is close enough that it will become very interesting for everyone involved. Utah is not one of the top seeds that can count a fall and assume they'll still advance.
Attack of the Beam Monster Part 2: The Revengening is really the only way I see making it out of this group becoming a challenge for Utah because they have been scoring consistently well on the other events throughout the year. In terms of continuing to improve their quality as we head toward nationals, though, there are still a few things I'll be watching out for. Last season was all about the beam troubles for Utah, but at the end of the year, we also began to see some deterioration in the early floor routines (all these 9.6s started to pop up) and the vault landings. Keep an eye out to make sure the same thing doesn't happen to the same gymnasts this season. At Pac 12s, Utah performed well enough on vault, but the landings can certainly improve given that they showed just one stuck vault out of six (from Dabritz on her downgraded full - which helped justify the decision to downgrade). As I've said all year, the end of Utah's vault lineup can compete with any team in the country, but Delaney, Wilson, and Dabritz all need to stick for 9.950s for that to happen.
The Contenders
I'm putting UCLA and Arkansas in the same category for this preview, as the clashing contenders for the second spot for nationals, but I don't think I'm quite as sold on the upset potential in this meet as some other people seem to be. Of course, Arkansas is one of the most dangerous lower-ranked teams and can potentially pull off the upset without needing a total UCLA implosion to do it (another Pac 12s would probably be sufficient to open the door), but I don't think this meet is as close as some of the other third-seed-host regionals. If UCLA actually hits, they should go through regardless of any home boost that Arkansas might receive. The Bruins were pretty poor at Pac 12s and still managed a mid 196, so performing even somewhat better than that should put them out of reach and closer to challenging Utah than being challenged by Arkansas. There's not all that much between UCLA and Utah, but UCLA's lack of consistent scoring this year does not afford them the status of favorite. But as tough as Arkansas can be, UCLA does control its own fate in this meet.
Competing teams (starting event)
[5] Utah (bye before bars)
[8] UCLA (bye before floor)
[17] Arkansas (vault)
[24] Arizona State (floor)
[30] Utah State (bars)
[34] UC Davis (beam)
The individual competitions are from Illinois-Chicago (Catherine Dion, Gabrille May), Northern Illinois (Kim Gotlund, Amanda Stepp - floor), SEMO (Alyssa Tucker, Taryn Vanderpool), Missouri (Rachel Updike - vault), Texas Woman's (Brittainy Johnson - bars), and Illinois State (Samantha King - beam).
The Favorite
Utah comes into this regional as the favorite, but the Utes' favorite status is not as clear-cut as the other top teams previewed so far. Utah is 2-1 against UCLA this season and has had some struggles throughout the year, so it would be foolhardy to assume any kind of dominance simply based on their #1 seeding.
One of the reasons Utah has steadied as a fairly believable choice to make it back to Super Six is the progress on beam. It's still not a big event for them, and will not be a big event, but they have hit six-for-six in enough meets recently that we can upgrade the rotation to serious-but-stable condition. We'll be monitoring its vital signs throughout the meet, but the prognosis is positive. The Utes are still probably looking at 9.8s for a 49.2 or so, but that should be enough for the moment. Of course, if things take a turn for the dire, the meet is close enough that it will become very interesting for everyone involved. Utah is not one of the top seeds that can count a fall and assume they'll still advance.
Attack of the Beam Monster Part 2: The Revengening is really the only way I see making it out of this group becoming a challenge for Utah because they have been scoring consistently well on the other events throughout the year. In terms of continuing to improve their quality as we head toward nationals, though, there are still a few things I'll be watching out for. Last season was all about the beam troubles for Utah, but at the end of the year, we also began to see some deterioration in the early floor routines (all these 9.6s started to pop up) and the vault landings. Keep an eye out to make sure the same thing doesn't happen to the same gymnasts this season. At Pac 12s, Utah performed well enough on vault, but the landings can certainly improve given that they showed just one stuck vault out of six (from Dabritz on her downgraded full - which helped justify the decision to downgrade). As I've said all year, the end of Utah's vault lineup can compete with any team in the country, but Delaney, Wilson, and Dabritz all need to stick for 9.950s for that to happen.
The Contenders
I'm putting UCLA and Arkansas in the same category for this preview, as the clashing contenders for the second spot for nationals, but I don't think I'm quite as sold on the upset potential in this meet as some other people seem to be. Of course, Arkansas is one of the most dangerous lower-ranked teams and can potentially pull off the upset without needing a total UCLA implosion to do it (another Pac 12s would probably be sufficient to open the door), but I don't think this meet is as close as some of the other third-seed-host regionals. If UCLA actually hits, they should go through regardless of any home boost that Arkansas might receive. The Bruins were pretty poor at Pac 12s and still managed a mid 196, so performing even somewhat better than that should put them out of reach and closer to challenging Utah than being challenged by Arkansas. There's not all that much between UCLA and Utah, but UCLA's lack of consistent scoring this year does not afford them the status of favorite. But as tough as Arkansas can be, UCLA does control its own fate in this meet.
April 1, 2014
Seattle, WA Regional Preview
Usually we have at least a couple unseeded teams hosting a regional or two, but this year Washington is the only one, having managed to just outstrip the regionals cutoff and make it in. They'll invite Alabama and Nebraska to their humble abode to do battle with plucky challengers Boise State and Denver, beginning at 7 ET/4 PT. This is the west coast regional, so couldn't we have started it a bit later to spread out the competitions a little more? How do they expect us to watch six meets in a day if they're all at the same time?
Competing teams (staring event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[9] Nebraska (bye before floor)
[16] Boise State (vault)
[20] Denver (floor)
[25] BYU (bars)
[33] Washington (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from Sacramento State (Jesse Williams, Kalliah McCartney, Kailey Hansen - vault, beam, and floor, Julia Konner - vault, Kaila Kilwien - bars, Kayla Wonderly - beam, Dallas Smith - floor), Alaska (Stefany Bryan), and Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley - vault, bars, and beam, Tracie Villanueva - bars, Kailee Tindall - floor). Sacramento State has a Kayla, a Kailey, a Kaila, and a Kalliah. The end.
The Favorites
This regional sets up a little differently from the previous ones in that there's a bit more separation between the top seeds and the contending seeds, with Alabama and Nebraska both looking like safe bets to advance. That's not to say the other teams can't manage something interesting (we'll get to them in a moment), but Alabama is on a roll and Nebraska is situated much better in this regional to avenge last year's misery than their colleague Oregon State is over in the Penn State group. Both Alabama and Nebraska should be able to perform normally in this meet and advance by a healthy margin.
For much of the season, Alabama has been running a step behind the lead pack, so winning SECs continued the dissolution of that gap between them and the top teams and allowed them to jump comfortably into the group of favorites once we get to nationals. They're now starting to look like a team that can win a championship without help. The SEC win wasn't without questions, with the Tide finishing just a small margin ahead of Florida and receiving some scores that I would deem extra friendly here and there (9.900 for Sims on beam and 9.950 on bars? Two judges giving Milliner a 10 for a non-stick?). But no other team looked definitively better, and Florida made more than its share of errors on a couple events. That tends to diffuse any righteous outrage. Alabama had several highlight routines during SECs, one of the most important being Kim Jacob on vault continuing the progression of her 1.5 with a stick. She has been a borderline member of the vault lineup for years, showing a full that wasn't as big as the usual Alabama fulls and a 1.5 that never had enough landing control to get a big score. If she can continue vaulting like this, it gives Alabama another asset that we didn't necessarily expect coming into the season on an event that needs to be a best-in-the-meet strength come Super Six.
The Tide scored a 49.650 on bars at SECs, and the big question is whether that's for real. There was a lot going into that score, being in Birmingham and finishing on bars, and I did think Florida and Georgia looked a clear step better on the event based on the routines we saw in the broadcast. But if that's how these routines are going to be evaluated as we progress, there isn't much of a limit to what Alabama can accomplish this season. Interestingly, beam was the clear weak event for Alabama at SECs, with some stepping and shakiness that we haven't seen very often this season, but as with some of Florida's mistakes, it's not a trend yet. Still, watch the bars at regionals. They'll tell us stories.
Competing teams (staring event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[9] Nebraska (bye before floor)
[16] Boise State (vault)
[20] Denver (floor)
[25] BYU (bars)
[33] Washington (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from Sacramento State (Jesse Williams, Kalliah McCartney, Kailey Hansen - vault, beam, and floor, Julia Konner - vault, Kaila Kilwien - bars, Kayla Wonderly - beam, Dallas Smith - floor), Alaska (Stefany Bryan), and Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley - vault, bars, and beam, Tracie Villanueva - bars, Kailee Tindall - floor). Sacramento State has a Kayla, a Kailey, a Kaila, and a Kalliah. The end.
The Favorites
This regional sets up a little differently from the previous ones in that there's a bit more separation between the top seeds and the contending seeds, with Alabama and Nebraska both looking like safe bets to advance. That's not to say the other teams can't manage something interesting (we'll get to them in a moment), but Alabama is on a roll and Nebraska is situated much better in this regional to avenge last year's misery than their colleague Oregon State is over in the Penn State group. Both Alabama and Nebraska should be able to perform normally in this meet and advance by a healthy margin.
For much of the season, Alabama has been running a step behind the lead pack, so winning SECs continued the dissolution of that gap between them and the top teams and allowed them to jump comfortably into the group of favorites once we get to nationals. They're now starting to look like a team that can win a championship without help. The SEC win wasn't without questions, with the Tide finishing just a small margin ahead of Florida and receiving some scores that I would deem extra friendly here and there (9.900 for Sims on beam and 9.950 on bars? Two judges giving Milliner a 10 for a non-stick?). But no other team looked definitively better, and Florida made more than its share of errors on a couple events. That tends to diffuse any righteous outrage. Alabama had several highlight routines during SECs, one of the most important being Kim Jacob on vault continuing the progression of her 1.5 with a stick. She has been a borderline member of the vault lineup for years, showing a full that wasn't as big as the usual Alabama fulls and a 1.5 that never had enough landing control to get a big score. If she can continue vaulting like this, it gives Alabama another asset that we didn't necessarily expect coming into the season on an event that needs to be a best-in-the-meet strength come Super Six.
The Tide scored a 49.650 on bars at SECs, and the big question is whether that's for real. There was a lot going into that score, being in Birmingham and finishing on bars, and I did think Florida and Georgia looked a clear step better on the event based on the routines we saw in the broadcast. But if that's how these routines are going to be evaluated as we progress, there isn't much of a limit to what Alabama can accomplish this season. Interestingly, beam was the clear weak event for Alabama at SECs, with some stepping and shakiness that we haven't seen very often this season, but as with some of Florida's mistakes, it's not a trend yet. Still, watch the bars at regionals. They'll tell us stories.
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