Another NCAA season has come and gone, but our aggressive sighing from the corner of the room will live on forever. They may take our season, but they will never take our eye rolls.
Several days on from Oklahoma toe pointing off into the sunset with a trophy in hand, this seems an appropriate moment to cobble together a series of reflections and important frowns relating to the season just passed and college gymnastics in general. Only eight and a half months until it starts all over again! But, of course, we also have that pitiful little zone meet called the Olympics coming up not nearly soon enough, so I'll be all over the elite action this year with the same level of dedicated preposterousness I usually reserve NCAA. You guys, we have a lot more things to break. At the time, I didn't quite realize what a good job we did breaking Romania last year, but...it definitely took.
That Frogchenko 2/3ish is my new favorite vault. It's going to start from a 10.0 in next year's NCAA code. Cal is already training two of them.
Oklahoma
For the second time, and the first time outright, our champions are the Oklahoma Sooners, who were rewarded for their commitment to performing the cleanest gymnastics in the competition. Super Six wasn't a perfect meet for the Sooners by any means, which is what made it exciting in the first place (a season-best hit from Oklahoma, and this thing isn't very close). Weaker showings on vault and the second half of bars kept the competition finely poised, but Oklahoma's errors were less egregious than those of the other teams and did not include any falls. Focus on details like split and chest positions made it much more difficult for the judges to deny Oklahoma those valuable 9.9s in a theoretically tighter-scored environment, and the Sooner managed to snatch twelve of them. Seven was the most 9.9s coming from any other team in Super Six.
My questions about Oklahoma's title chances coming into the season primarily revolved around the necessity of replacing valuable 9.9 routines on bars and beam with gymnasts who were already on the roster but not making those lineups, often a recipe for regression. While Oklahoma did have to replace a number of those lost routines with tired old sophomores and juniors, the coaching staff was able to get Oklahoma-level routines out of each them. Ali Jackson doing bars? Chayse Capps getting her best scores on bars? What life if this? I went back to my notes about the freshmen from when Capps started, which I still have because I'm a gymnastics hoarder, and I wrote "Capps - VT, BB, FX. Bars - No." So there's that. I also wrote, "beam could be one of her potential contributions." Could be? Potential? You unbelievable idiot.
This is one of the defining characteristics of the Oklahoma team. People compete events no one ever expected them to compete when they started, from Hollie Vise doing a vault her senior year to all these competitors this season. And while I wouldn't consider these bars and beam lineups all-time great Oklahoma lineups, they more than got the job done.
Other teams also used gymnasts who weren't making lineups in previous seasons, whether it's McLaughlin and Fassbender filling in on floor for Florida or Sanders doing beam for Alabama, but those routines were the replacement-level 9.825 scores we would expect from someone on the cusp of the lineup. They didn't become difference makers in the way that Oklahoma's replacement routines did, a critical factor in the Sooners' triumph.
The year of the upstarts
Some solid noise was made this season by teams we don't normally expect to do anything. Eastern Michigan came, you know, sort of close to making nationals, George Washington broke into the big girls club, and Bowling Green made regionals, not to mention Cal crashing the party of the normal nationals qualifiers, Iowa sneaking into the realm of contenders, and Boise State and Denver spending some serious time in the first tier.
The storylines were different. There were different teams to follow than usual, which is exciting. But that's all a little too positive, isn't it? If some teams break in, others have to fall out and perform worse than is expected or acceptable. The biggest disappointment of the season was Illinois, a team that appeared to have the talent to make its traditional biennial nationals appearance but was clearly well off the pace even before devastating injuries sealed the season. Ohio State has also completely disappeared from the conversation since a nationals appearance several years ago that shouldn't really have been as random and fluky and Kent Statey as it has become in retrospect. Then there's also Penn State and...well...that whole abuse thing. And DOCTOR Rene Lyst being asked to sashay away from Arizona State, a program that was good as recently as 10 years ago and is now the punchline of the NCAA.
In a somewhat different category are Oregon State and Arkansas, two teams that had perfectly fine and respectable seasons and might have made nationals with a kinder regionals draw, in the case of Oregon State (Oregon State was the only school that had to face two eventual Super Six teams at regionals), or without some critical injuries, in the case of Arkansas. Still, this makes three straight years of missing nationals for Arkansas and three of the last four for Oregon State, both programs that at this point should expect to make nationals every time.
The presence of these upstarts puts more and more pressure on the top teams to be better during the regular season so that they don't end up with those very challenging regionals draws, which is positive because it makes the regular season mean more. Stanford did not have an impressive regular season and was a whisker away from being unseeded at regionals, which would have produced an even more challenging setup. For a team that currently has only three home meets a year, several of which are in a glorified black box theater, the incentive to make regular-season meets a more invigorating and successful experience grows stronger.
Scoring the rotation order
Another significant characteristic of the season, perhaps the most extreme, was the presence of the fifth event, Home Floor. Home Floor is the phenomenon in which a host team goes to floor in the final rotation only to find that the code of points has suddenly been replaced with a rainbow lollipop made of panda hearts. Home floor has always been a thing, but this year, floor scoring reached a ten-year high, rendering the effects of home floor more pronounced than ever. If you were a top team who didn't get 49.500 on floor at home, you might as well be counting 80 falls.
So, end-of-meet scoring is a problem, and one that's not simply confined to floor and home meets. At nationals, we also saw the effects of scoring the rotation order and elevating scores based on when the routine came in the meet. In Super Six, the average team score per rotation was 49.206 in the first rotation, 49.2375 in the second, 49.369 in the third, 49.225 in the fourth, 49.350 in the fifth, and then suddenly 49.500 in the final rotation. The highest team score on each apparatus in Super Six was recorded by the team that happened to be competing on it in the final rotation. Of the 37 scores of 9.9 or greater given out in Super Six, 23 came in the second half of the meet compared to 14 in the first half of the meet. As many 9.9s were given out in the final rotation as in the first three rotations combined. Amazing how all the teams got to perform on their best events in the second half of the meet. What a coincidence.
The rotation order should be random nothing. It shouldn't decide the scores, and finishing on a bye (or not starting on a bye) should not be an actual disadvantage in the competition the way it appears to be now. It's a judge's job not to get excited by the circumstances of the meet (which is why smiling should be banned forever—it reads as unprofessional), and judges need to be made aware of tendencies to elevate scores at the ends of meets. They must make a point of judging the first routine of the first rotation with the same lens as the sixth routine of the sixth rotation and repel the natural instinct to loosen and elevate scores as the meet becomes louder, longer, and more exciting, not allowing themselves to be swayed by the siren song of fervent cheering and a passionate atmosphere. They're not here to enjoy this. They're here on business.
Showing posts with label NCAA Gymnastics Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA Gymnastics Nationals. Show all posts
April 20, 2016
July 29, 2015
Everything's Going To Change Now, Isn't It?
First things first, Simone Biles is going pro and will not compete in NCAA. It's a completely understandable decision. In her specific case, the lure of going pro is virtually undeniable. Unlike some other pro gymnasts who commit to an NCAA program as a clear Plan B if things don't work out, I get the feeling that Simone really did want to compete for UCLA but was in an untenable position. Let's direct our fury at the antiquated, unrealistic rules that require her to choose in the first place.
It is a positive for the profile of gymnastics as a whole in the United States to have someone as successful and marketable as Simone able to take advantage of everything being a professional athlete entails. If everything goes to plan, she's going to be a damn star, with her dominance, cheerful personality, and natural presence in front of a camera (she's not one of the I'm So Honored robots, and I hope they don't turn her into one). Usually I rail against people going pro at this point in the quad because you just don't know what's going to happen, but everyone and their dog knows Simone is going to the Olympics if she's healthy, so this isn't like a Bieger situation.
But mostly, I want to take this opportunity to talk about the new NCAA rules, which are finally published and official. (Thanks to super sleuth Cordelia Price for the twitter red alert.) Take a look. This is basically just confirmation of the information that circulated a few months ago, but now it's all real, and we have to deal with it. Let's break down the major developments.
1) Yurchenko full and Yurchenko 1/2, 9.95 start value.
Al Trautwig would like me to take this opportunity to remind you that the start value is the value at which the vault starts.
This is the big one. Shockingly, I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other so far. Something had to be done about the omnipresence of Yfulls in NCAA gymnastics. It's everyone, all the time. But it remains to be seen whether downgrading the vault is that solution. There are a number of people on top teams (like Scaman) who will be able to upgrade realistically and safely back to a 10.0 SV vault, which should change the dynamic of the vault lineups at showcase meets, but for the most part, teams will still be performing their same lineups packed with Yfulls because they don't have more difficult vaults or different entries to do. The Yfull will remain by far, far, far the most-performed vault in NCAA, even with this change. It will just score lower. Although, if we see even a small upswing in the number of Omelianchiks performed, then I'll be a happy camper.
The argument against downgrading the full has long been that it makes it even harder for the second-tier teams to compete and inhibits (DUN DUN DUN) parity, since only the top teams will be able to put up the 1.5s. I used to subscribe to this argument more than I do now. It's not like the second-tier teams were an inch away from making Super Six and now they have no chance. They weren't getting there anyway. This won't change that dynamic and perhaps will allow some less traditional vaults to stand out.
I do, however, wonder what this will do for the equivalency of scoring across the four events. Currently, vault and floor enjoy a slight advantage over bars and beam in total scoring, but it's not major or definite, and they're all within reason. Hopefully this doesn't degrade the vault scores too much to the point where it becomes the clear lower-scoring event. How about we agree that execution judging gets .050 stricter on the other events to maintain the balance with all these yfulls?
But overall, I appreciate that this adds a new wrinkle to proceedings (whether or not it solves the problem in any substantive way) and provides an extra element of strategy. Which teams are going to take the plunge and start throwing a bunch of 1.5s, and which teams will play it safe with their fulls and hope to get through on execution over teams throwing potentially sloppier 1.5s? (What a very elite question!) It could also change the lineups. Someone like Breanna Hughes for Utah has a 1.5, but hasn't been making the vault lineup. Does having a 1.5 put her over the edge? (Or will that happen anyway because every single Utah gymnast graduated after last year?)
Also, the judging aspect should get interesting. And by interesting, I mean infuriating. So no change there. How are these vaults going to be scored? Currently, 1.5s get a little bit of scoring forgiveness compared to equivalently executed fulls. Does that unwritten boost go away now that the 1.5 advantage is codified, or does it stay? Is 9.950 going to be a realistic score for a great full, or will it be reserved solely for almost-great 1.5s? We're all going to be watching those vault scores like damn vultures. Get ready, judges. You thought we were critical before? Bring me all the fine-toothed combs in the land!
Final note: Vulture-eyed Uncle Tim noted that while the Yfull has been downgraded, the Yurchenko piked full still starts from a 10.0. Yeah. Nothing has better encapsulated the nonsense of NCAA gymnastics rule procedures than that. Someone needs to clean that oversight up. Can you imagine? Coaches frantically telling everyone to be really sure to pike their straight vaults at the end. "It's totally piked! I swear! 10!"
2) The McMurtry Rule
It is a positive for the profile of gymnastics as a whole in the United States to have someone as successful and marketable as Simone able to take advantage of everything being a professional athlete entails. If everything goes to plan, she's going to be a damn star, with her dominance, cheerful personality, and natural presence in front of a camera (she's not one of the I'm So Honored robots, and I hope they don't turn her into one). Usually I rail against people going pro at this point in the quad because you just don't know what's going to happen, but everyone and their dog knows Simone is going to the Olympics if she's healthy, so this isn't like a Bieger situation.
But mostly, I want to take this opportunity to talk about the new NCAA rules, which are finally published and official. (Thanks to super sleuth Cordelia Price for the twitter red alert.) Take a look. This is basically just confirmation of the information that circulated a few months ago, but now it's all real, and we have to deal with it. Let's break down the major developments.
1) Yurchenko full and Yurchenko 1/2, 9.95 start value.
Al Trautwig would like me to take this opportunity to remind you that the start value is the value at which the vault starts.
This is the big one. Shockingly, I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other so far. Something had to be done about the omnipresence of Yfulls in NCAA gymnastics. It's everyone, all the time. But it remains to be seen whether downgrading the vault is that solution. There are a number of people on top teams (like Scaman) who will be able to upgrade realistically and safely back to a 10.0 SV vault, which should change the dynamic of the vault lineups at showcase meets, but for the most part, teams will still be performing their same lineups packed with Yfulls because they don't have more difficult vaults or different entries to do. The Yfull will remain by far, far, far the most-performed vault in NCAA, even with this change. It will just score lower. Although, if we see even a small upswing in the number of Omelianchiks performed, then I'll be a happy camper.
The argument against downgrading the full has long been that it makes it even harder for the second-tier teams to compete and inhibits (DUN DUN DUN) parity, since only the top teams will be able to put up the 1.5s. I used to subscribe to this argument more than I do now. It's not like the second-tier teams were an inch away from making Super Six and now they have no chance. They weren't getting there anyway. This won't change that dynamic and perhaps will allow some less traditional vaults to stand out.
I do, however, wonder what this will do for the equivalency of scoring across the four events. Currently, vault and floor enjoy a slight advantage over bars and beam in total scoring, but it's not major or definite, and they're all within reason. Hopefully this doesn't degrade the vault scores too much to the point where it becomes the clear lower-scoring event. How about we agree that execution judging gets .050 stricter on the other events to maintain the balance with all these yfulls?
But overall, I appreciate that this adds a new wrinkle to proceedings (whether or not it solves the problem in any substantive way) and provides an extra element of strategy. Which teams are going to take the plunge and start throwing a bunch of 1.5s, and which teams will play it safe with their fulls and hope to get through on execution over teams throwing potentially sloppier 1.5s? (What a very elite question!) It could also change the lineups. Someone like Breanna Hughes for Utah has a 1.5, but hasn't been making the vault lineup. Does having a 1.5 put her over the edge? (Or will that happen anyway because every single Utah gymnast graduated after last year?)
Also, the judging aspect should get interesting. And by interesting, I mean infuriating. So no change there. How are these vaults going to be scored? Currently, 1.5s get a little bit of scoring forgiveness compared to equivalently executed fulls. Does that unwritten boost go away now that the 1.5 advantage is codified, or does it stay? Is 9.950 going to be a realistic score for a great full, or will it be reserved solely for almost-great 1.5s? We're all going to be watching those vault scores like damn vultures. Get ready, judges. You thought we were critical before? Bring me all the fine-toothed combs in the land!
Final note: Vulture-eyed Uncle Tim noted that while the Yfull has been downgraded, the Yurchenko piked full still starts from a 10.0. Yeah. Nothing has better encapsulated the nonsense of NCAA gymnastics rule procedures than that. Someone needs to clean that oversight up. Can you imagine? Coaches frantically telling everyone to be really sure to pike their straight vaults at the end. "It's totally piked! I swear! 10!"
2) The McMurtry Rule
April 19, 2015
Event Finals Live Blog
And this is also a competition. Welcome to our annual "Oh yeah, there's more?" day. If you haven't used up your supply of outrage yet, the event finals are usually good for some solid, concentrated WTF. Or, if you don't feel outraged, you can just play the "Who's going to cry the most?" game. The answer is everybody.
As for last night, I can't complain about seeing another exciting finish. Four straight years of pretty close races. It's the norm now, but it wasn't always that way. So yay for that.
But didn't you think it was going to end in another tie? After McMurtry went on bars, I was sure she was going to get 9.900 and we would have a tie again, and I would have been furious. One year, I could forgive. But not two. That would be just too adorable and too inconclusive. So I'm glad someone won outright. There has been a whole heap of angry about the McMurtry 9.950 on bars to clinch the meet for Florida, which is understandable. Especially when you start making comparisons to Ivana Hong also getting a 9.950. Or Sami Shapiro getting a 9.900. It's basically the exact same thing that happened last year for Bridgey's creative 9.950 at the end of the floor lineup. At the same time, the meet is not about one routine, and you can make just as many overscore arguments about Utah as about Florida, if not more. Especially because the bars scoring in Super Six was generally insane. Stanford should have been 60 points ahead of all the other teams in a just world with a sensible COP.
So, Florida makes it three in a row. Utah should be incredibly proud of that performance, though. No one had them finishing second this year. In the preseason, I had them fifth, and even before Super Six started, I was thinking they would finish 4th. That was a tremendous day and a big rebound for a program that hadn't had a really great result in a while. It was difficult to see Oklahoma come up short, but they let themselves down on floor. With normal routines from Dowell and Jackson with no OOB, the Sooners would have been level with Florida and Utah. Can you imagine if it had been a three-way race at the end?
But now we turn to event finals. Here is the draw.
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
It's so bizarre to see a normal amount of people in vault finals. It wouldn't even be a problem this year if they still had to do two vaults. There were definitely some frustrating vault scores in semifinals, but it seemed the judges were making a concerted effort to keep the scores down to avoid a million 9.900s making EFs, and they succeeded. So I applaud that.
On vault, I would love to see the people who are capable of upgrading throw a little bit more (cough, Ebee, cough). Although she probably is the favorite if she sticks to her full. It's easier to win with a full because it's easier to land with a full, so it will be interesting to see what the people like Price and Scaman decide to do. Scaman stuck to the full in EF last year. Also if anyone wants to pull an Anna Li, I would have no problem with it because her 1.5 is still my favorite all-time EF moment.
Bars is going to be a good one, even though we're missing some of the best. Let's see if any of the judges have the guts not to give Dabritz a 10. I know my complaints about her routine are issues that are never deducted for in anyone's routine during the regular season, but in event finals there should be a higher standard for things like toe point (which is why it's frustrating that Hong and Shapiro didn't qualify). That goes for Sloan's tkatchev as well. I think I'm on the Brittany Rogers wagon for this one.
Beam. Ivana Hong. Her routine yesterday was perfection, and I need her to win this today. Also keep an eye on Peszek, especially if she throws the full as she usually does in these circumstances. It will be her last routine ever, so there's nothing to save those glass feet for anymore.
There are a million people in the floor final, so it's tough to make a call, but Kytra probably comes in as the favorite. Nina McGee is right there. And Kennedy Baker has a piked double arabian, so she's automatically in the hunt.
As for last night, I can't complain about seeing another exciting finish. Four straight years of pretty close races. It's the norm now, but it wasn't always that way. So yay for that.
But didn't you think it was going to end in another tie? After McMurtry went on bars, I was sure she was going to get 9.900 and we would have a tie again, and I would have been furious. One year, I could forgive. But not two. That would be just too adorable and too inconclusive. So I'm glad someone won outright. There has been a whole heap of angry about the McMurtry 9.950 on bars to clinch the meet for Florida, which is understandable. Especially when you start making comparisons to Ivana Hong also getting a 9.950. Or Sami Shapiro getting a 9.900. It's basically the exact same thing that happened last year for Bridgey's creative 9.950 at the end of the floor lineup. At the same time, the meet is not about one routine, and you can make just as many overscore arguments about Utah as about Florida, if not more. Especially because the bars scoring in Super Six was generally insane. Stanford should have been 60 points ahead of all the other teams in a just world with a sensible COP.
So, Florida makes it three in a row. Utah should be incredibly proud of that performance, though. No one had them finishing second this year. In the preseason, I had them fifth, and even before Super Six started, I was thinking they would finish 4th. That was a tremendous day and a big rebound for a program that hadn't had a really great result in a while. It was difficult to see Oklahoma come up short, but they let themselves down on floor. With normal routines from Dowell and Jackson with no OOB, the Sooners would have been level with Florida and Utah. Can you imagine if it had been a three-way race at the end?
But now we turn to event finals. Here is the draw.
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
It's so bizarre to see a normal amount of people in vault finals. It wouldn't even be a problem this year if they still had to do two vaults. There were definitely some frustrating vault scores in semifinals, but it seemed the judges were making a concerted effort to keep the scores down to avoid a million 9.900s making EFs, and they succeeded. So I applaud that.
On vault, I would love to see the people who are capable of upgrading throw a little bit more (cough, Ebee, cough). Although she probably is the favorite if she sticks to her full. It's easier to win with a full because it's easier to land with a full, so it will be interesting to see what the people like Price and Scaman decide to do. Scaman stuck to the full in EF last year. Also if anyone wants to pull an Anna Li, I would have no problem with it because her 1.5 is still my favorite all-time EF moment.
Bars is going to be a good one, even though we're missing some of the best. Let's see if any of the judges have the guts not to give Dabritz a 10. I know my complaints about her routine are issues that are never deducted for in anyone's routine during the regular season, but in event finals there should be a higher standard for things like toe point (which is why it's frustrating that Hong and Shapiro didn't qualify). That goes for Sloan's tkatchev as well. I think I'm on the Brittany Rogers wagon for this one.
Beam. Ivana Hong. Her routine yesterday was perfection, and I need her to win this today. Also keep an eye on Peszek, especially if she throws the full as she usually does in these circumstances. It will be her last routine ever, so there's nothing to save those glass feet for anymore.
There are a million people in the floor final, so it's tough to make a call, but Kytra probably comes in as the favorite. Nina McGee is right there. And Kennedy Baker has a piked double arabian, so she's automatically in the hunt.
April 18, 2015
Super Six Live Blog
And now we're here. Championship day. It's about time. The meet will begin at 7:00 ET/4:00 PT.
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
We have a rotation order:
Is it weird that I'm really confused by this formatting? Am I just that tired?
The lowest seeds, Auburn and Stanford, end on byes, which should provide for maximum drama. Oklahoma ends on beam once again. In theory, that's a good rotation order for them, but after yesterday...
Conversely, Florida begins on beam, which will be the most telling performance of the first rotation. It certainly told us a lot two years ago. They'll need to be much better than the 49.275 from yesterday. So will everyone. On everything. But mostly beam. It was an epically poor day for beam work. If you haven't checked in on DD's post-meet comments yesterday, they're a hoot. She's not exactly pleased with her team.
The results from yesterday were great news for Oklahoma in spite of the bizarre beamtastrophe (the beam mistakes for Oklahoma were much more interesting to me than the beam mistakes for LSU, because the LSU mistakes had been building for weeks. They hadn't looked comfortable on beam all postseason, but Oklahoma had). Oklahoma would have blown away the competition with a hit meet, which should be reason for confidence. If they can hit today. Super Six weirdness is never out of the picture.
On the other hand, Utah put together about as solid a meet as we can expect from them to score 197.475. There were a couple missed routines, but mostly, we saw what Utah is going to give us. It's a relatively similar case for Alabama, though Alabama had two strong events, one OK event, and a weak event for that 197.100 yesterday. They can, and certainly should, improve on that score and performance, but it was still three-tenths lower than Oklahoma counting a fall. At the same time, this is pretty much exactly the position Alabama was in when they won their last two titles. Alabama is in it, but they'll need today to be a lot like yesterday for Oklahoma and Florida.
Florida is sticking around. The scoring potential is there in these routines to win this outright, but I haven't yet been wholly inspired with confidence by their postseason performances. They will need to step it up. Watch those first two scores on each event. Florida's early scores haven't been that high this postseason, which has put them at a disadvantage to Oklahoma.
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
We have a rotation order:
The lowest seeds, Auburn and Stanford, end on byes, which should provide for maximum drama. Oklahoma ends on beam once again. In theory, that's a good rotation order for them, but after yesterday...
Conversely, Florida begins on beam, which will be the most telling performance of the first rotation. It certainly told us a lot two years ago. They'll need to be much better than the 49.275 from yesterday. So will everyone. On everything. But mostly beam. It was an epically poor day for beam work. If you haven't checked in on DD's post-meet comments yesterday, they're a hoot. She's not exactly pleased with her team.
The results from yesterday were great news for Oklahoma in spite of the bizarre beamtastrophe (the beam mistakes for Oklahoma were much more interesting to me than the beam mistakes for LSU, because the LSU mistakes had been building for weeks. They hadn't looked comfortable on beam all postseason, but Oklahoma had). Oklahoma would have blown away the competition with a hit meet, which should be reason for confidence. If they can hit today. Super Six weirdness is never out of the picture.
On the other hand, Utah put together about as solid a meet as we can expect from them to score 197.475. There were a couple missed routines, but mostly, we saw what Utah is going to give us. It's a relatively similar case for Alabama, though Alabama had two strong events, one OK event, and a weak event for that 197.100 yesterday. They can, and certainly should, improve on that score and performance, but it was still three-tenths lower than Oklahoma counting a fall. At the same time, this is pretty much exactly the position Alabama was in when they won their last two titles. Alabama is in it, but they'll need today to be a lot like yesterday for Oklahoma and Florida.
Florida is sticking around. The scoring potential is there in these routines to win this outright, but I haven't yet been wholly inspired with confidence by their postseason performances. They will need to step it up. Watch those first two scores on each event. Florida's early scores haven't been that high this postseason, which has put them at a disadvantage to Oklahoma.
April 17, 2015
National Semifinals Live Blog
Have you had your nervous breakdown yet today? Don't worry. It's coming. The semifinals will take place at 2:00 ET and 8:00 ET.
Live stream - Semifinal 1
Live scores - Semifinal 1
Live stream - Semifinal 2
Live scores - Semifinal 2
Here's a quick comparison of the regional championship scores for the teams in each semifinal, with the top three on each event highlighted.
Live stream - Semifinal 1
Live scores - Semifinal 1
Live stream - Semifinal 2
Live scores - Semifinal 2
Here's a quick comparison of the regional championship scores for the teams in each semifinal, with the top three on each event highlighted.
April 16, 2015
One Day More
The national championship starts tomorrow. Already. So disrespectful.
If you haven't checked out my semifinal ramblings yet, here they are:
Semifinal #1
Semifinal #2
And the rotation order.
Before we get to what's happening tomorrow, there's also the matter of the regular NLI signing period (as opposed to the early period in November), which began yesterday. Mostly, this period is used to confirm what we already know, like Lizzy LeDuc's switch to Illinois. The most significant announcement in terms of name recognition came from UCLA, as they confirmed the coup of seizing Kyla Ross from Stanford (deferring until after the Olympics, obviously), along with the signing of Katelyn Ohashi and Madison Preston for next season. Preston is a Cincinnati refugee who won the vault title in her division at JOs last year. Looking at the gaps that will reappear on vault next year without Peszek and Williams, and since Pua Hall's vault is apparently MIA, anyone with a yfull as big as hers is a thing.
In other news, Georgia Dabritz won the AAI Award. It was a tough field this year, but Dabritz was probably always the favorite, having competed more regularly than some of the other competitors (like Peszek), being the biggest star on her team (unlike Hunter), and having the academic recognition to go along with it. She had narrative in her favor.
Now, let's get to what we need for tomorrow.
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Semifinal #1 (Live Video)
Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, Stanford
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Semifinal #2 (Live Video)
Oklahoma, LSU. Alabama, Auburn, Nebraska, Oregon State
These semifinals will be used to determine the six teams advancing to Super Six on Saturday (three teams from each), along with the national all-around champion and the competitors advancing to Sunday's event finals. On each event, there will be a minimum of eight and a maximum of one trillion qualifiers because the top four people advance from each semifinal, and ties are not broken. That means when 24 people tie for 4th place on vault with a 9.900, they all go to event finals. It is hellish.
I don't do any previewing or prognostication for event finals because the qualification is always nonsense. You might as well just pick four people out of a hat. The best people never qualify to event finals since it only takes a little step on landing to drop out of the top four. Example: Lloimincia Hall has never competed in the floor final. Which means she probably needs to make it this year.
I also refrained from doing a preview of the all-around because I learned my lesson last year when I basically said, "And then there are other people like Kim Jacob who DEFINITELY can't win." So go me. In my defense, it was a screwed-up day for the AAers and all the favorites had mistakes. This year, Bridget Sloan has to be pegged as the favorite now that she's back to doing floor, but it's not prohibitive since nothing is in the AA. If the winner isn't Sloan, then we have to look to Courville, who is always the second-best SEC AAer, Dabritz now that she has joined the illustrious company of sudden senior beamers, Sam Peszek, Kytra Hunter, and Lindsay Mable as the likeliest contenders to get 39.7s. If the winning score falls down to the low 39.6s again, then about two dozen more people are suddenly in it.
If you haven't checked out my semifinal ramblings yet, here they are:
Semifinal #1
Semifinal #2
And the rotation order.
Before we get to what's happening tomorrow, there's also the matter of the regular NLI signing period (as opposed to the early period in November), which began yesterday. Mostly, this period is used to confirm what we already know, like Lizzy LeDuc's switch to Illinois. The most significant announcement in terms of name recognition came from UCLA, as they confirmed the coup of seizing Kyla Ross from Stanford (deferring until after the Olympics, obviously), along with the signing of Katelyn Ohashi and Madison Preston for next season. Preston is a Cincinnati refugee who won the vault title in her division at JOs last year. Looking at the gaps that will reappear on vault next year without Peszek and Williams, and since Pua Hall's vault is apparently MIA, anyone with a yfull as big as hers is a thing.
In other news, Georgia Dabritz won the AAI Award. It was a tough field this year, but Dabritz was probably always the favorite, having competed more regularly than some of the other competitors (like Peszek), being the biggest star on her team (unlike Hunter), and having the academic recognition to go along with it. She had narrative in her favor.
Now, let's get to what we need for tomorrow.
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Semifinal #1 (Live Video)
Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, Stanford
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Semifinal #2 (Live Video)
Oklahoma, LSU. Alabama, Auburn, Nebraska, Oregon State
These semifinals will be used to determine the six teams advancing to Super Six on Saturday (three teams from each), along with the national all-around champion and the competitors advancing to Sunday's event finals. On each event, there will be a minimum of eight and a maximum of one trillion qualifiers because the top four people advance from each semifinal, and ties are not broken. That means when 24 people tie for 4th place on vault with a 9.900, they all go to event finals. It is hellish.
I don't do any previewing or prognostication for event finals because the qualification is always nonsense. You might as well just pick four people out of a hat. The best people never qualify to event finals since it only takes a little step on landing to drop out of the top four. Example: Lloimincia Hall has never competed in the floor final. Which means she probably needs to make it this year.
I also refrained from doing a preview of the all-around because I learned my lesson last year when I basically said, "And then there are other people like Kim Jacob who DEFINITELY can't win." So go me. In my defense, it was a screwed-up day for the AAers and all the favorites had mistakes. This year, Bridget Sloan has to be pegged as the favorite now that she's back to doing floor, but it's not prohibitive since nothing is in the AA. If the winner isn't Sloan, then we have to look to Courville, who is always the second-best SEC AAer, Dabritz now that she has joined the illustrious company of sudden senior beamers, Sam Peszek, Kytra Hunter, and Lindsay Mable as the likeliest contenders to get 39.7s. If the winning score falls down to the low 39.6s again, then about two dozen more people are suddenly in it.
April 15, 2015
National Championship Preview Part 2: A Relaxing Evening at Nationals?
The two semifinals could not set up more differently in concept. We have that tangled mess of a first semifinal where anything and everything could and will happen, and then we have this one, which seems almost upsetting in its straightforwardness. Picking Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama to advance over Auburn, Nebraska, and Oregon State is just way too obvious. So it can't actually happen, right? In a year where the top twelve seeds all advanced from regionals, I think college gymnastics owes it to us to make this semifinal more exciting than I think it's going to be.
But, considering the results and scoring potential of the top three teams, I do think it's going to take a major mistake to make any of them vulnerable. In terms of their qualification fights, the most fall-likely areas (ahem, beam) should be the biggest focus, but when it comes to a potential rematch the next day in Super Six, all of these teams have concerns of vague-to-severe magnitude. So let's get into it.
OKLAHOMA
Among the many assets Oklahoma can boast, one of the most important is stability. This team doesn't really fall. Of all the twelve schools going to nationals, it would be the most surprising to see the Sooners count a fall, which is why I would count them as the safest bet to make Super Six. They don't have to be excellent in the semifinal to make it through, just the normal level of solid. Like all of the other top teams, Oklahoma was good-not-great at regionals, but they did still manage to record the best score in the country. A repeat of that performance would be more than enough.
As for Super Six, Oklahoma is a solid bet to win, but I don't think either Oklahoma or Florida can claim to be the favorite going in. It's not that kind of year. Both have issues that still need to be addressed, and neither has put together what I would consider an unstoppable performance yet. Oklahoma has not had major issues in the same way Florida did on beam at SECs or LSU has lately on bars. The Oklahoma problems are less "I'm afraid you're going to get a 9.6" and more "I'm afraid you're going to get a 9.825." But in Super Six, those problems take on the same importance. If a major player gets a 9.825, she might as well be getting a 9.6. Or a 1.
Oklahoma's biggest trouble spot has been bars. Over the last five consecutive meets, Oklahoma's lowest score has come on bars each time. I didn't necessarily see that coming before the season. With the addition of Dowell to replace Spears, and the rest of the lineup staying identical, I thought it would be a smooth transition on bars this season. But, there is some risk in the Dowell routine with the DLO 1/1 dismount (it's really easy not to stick that thing and suddenly be at 9.875-9.900 while the rest of the bars anchors in the competition are at 9.950), and there have been enough small issues throughout the lineup with landings and angles to allow the scores to fall down to 9.850 for people who should be getting 9.900. Everyone in that bars lineup is capable of 9.900, so having zero 9.9s at regionals is a problem, even with the relatively tight bars scoring at that meet. I suppose this shouldn't be as surprising as I think it is because the exact same thing happened last season. Oklahoma was suddenly getting weird 49.1s on bars and didn't really work out the problem until Super Six, when the bars sticks finally showed up again. They'll hope for an identical development this year. Maybe a day earlier this time?
The beam lineup is not a problem. It's extremely reliable both for hits and for huge scores (though my one criticism is too many gainer full dismounts, which you know I hate because it makes great routines end with a whimper and seem pedestrian). I was also pleased to see Ali Jackson nail her 1.5 on vault at regionals because that's a stick they'll desperately need if they're going to keep pace with the Florida vaulters, who keep getting 9.950s for non-stuck vaults. Those Oklahoma 1.5s have to be at least at the same level. Most teams have been in the "we're not really sticking yet" phase on vault, so for the teams who look like easy qualification bets, the stick fight on vault may be the most interesting part of the semifinal. We don't really know who will have the edge there going into Super Six yet.
But now I'm going to say something controversial. It almost hurts to say it, but it may be time to take Chayse Capps out of the floor lineup. OK, I got it out. Now we can work through it as a group. Obviously, the performance is wonderful. That's not in doubt, but the tumbling and the scores have not followed. Another 9.775 at regionals. That lineup can seriously get close to a 49.6 and be a real asset in Super Six, but if they have an opening 9.775-9.800, that means everyone else has to have the perfect routine. It's a conundrum.
LSU
LSU has let off the gas a little bit as the season wears down. For almost the entire year, LSU looked like an equal third challenger with Oklahoma and Florida in the fight for the title, scoring 198s and coming up with big wins over Florida and Alabama. But lately, the performances haven't been quite as convincing. LSU finished 2nd at SECs after it appeared Florida handed them the competition on a platter, and then they went into regionals and recorded a 197.175 with a clinic on tightness on bars and beam. LSU still has the quality to win the title, but recent showings have seemed a clear and significant step below championship level.
The Tigers do come into the semifinal as a very comfortable pick to make Super Six, but if there's a competition as to which of the three top seeds seems the most likely to be upset, LSU has suddenly moved to the top of that list. At regionals, they finished just 0.225 ahead of a Nebraska team that likewise didn't have anything resembling an all-time best performance, and that margin should be bigger. It's way too close for comfort heading to Friday.
But, considering the results and scoring potential of the top three teams, I do think it's going to take a major mistake to make any of them vulnerable. In terms of their qualification fights, the most fall-likely areas (ahem, beam) should be the biggest focus, but when it comes to a potential rematch the next day in Super Six, all of these teams have concerns of vague-to-severe magnitude. So let's get into it.
OKLAHOMA
Among the many assets Oklahoma can boast, one of the most important is stability. This team doesn't really fall. Of all the twelve schools going to nationals, it would be the most surprising to see the Sooners count a fall, which is why I would count them as the safest bet to make Super Six. They don't have to be excellent in the semifinal to make it through, just the normal level of solid. Like all of the other top teams, Oklahoma was good-not-great at regionals, but they did still manage to record the best score in the country. A repeat of that performance would be more than enough.
As for Super Six, Oklahoma is a solid bet to win, but I don't think either Oklahoma or Florida can claim to be the favorite going in. It's not that kind of year. Both have issues that still need to be addressed, and neither has put together what I would consider an unstoppable performance yet. Oklahoma has not had major issues in the same way Florida did on beam at SECs or LSU has lately on bars. The Oklahoma problems are less "I'm afraid you're going to get a 9.6" and more "I'm afraid you're going to get a 9.825." But in Super Six, those problems take on the same importance. If a major player gets a 9.825, she might as well be getting a 9.6. Or a 1.
Oklahoma's biggest trouble spot has been bars. Over the last five consecutive meets, Oklahoma's lowest score has come on bars each time. I didn't necessarily see that coming before the season. With the addition of Dowell to replace Spears, and the rest of the lineup staying identical, I thought it would be a smooth transition on bars this season. But, there is some risk in the Dowell routine with the DLO 1/1 dismount (it's really easy not to stick that thing and suddenly be at 9.875-9.900 while the rest of the bars anchors in the competition are at 9.950), and there have been enough small issues throughout the lineup with landings and angles to allow the scores to fall down to 9.850 for people who should be getting 9.900. Everyone in that bars lineup is capable of 9.900, so having zero 9.9s at regionals is a problem, even with the relatively tight bars scoring at that meet. I suppose this shouldn't be as surprising as I think it is because the exact same thing happened last season. Oklahoma was suddenly getting weird 49.1s on bars and didn't really work out the problem until Super Six, when the bars sticks finally showed up again. They'll hope for an identical development this year. Maybe a day earlier this time?
The beam lineup is not a problem. It's extremely reliable both for hits and for huge scores (though my one criticism is too many gainer full dismounts, which you know I hate because it makes great routines end with a whimper and seem pedestrian). I was also pleased to see Ali Jackson nail her 1.5 on vault at regionals because that's a stick they'll desperately need if they're going to keep pace with the Florida vaulters, who keep getting 9.950s for non-stuck vaults. Those Oklahoma 1.5s have to be at least at the same level. Most teams have been in the "we're not really sticking yet" phase on vault, so for the teams who look like easy qualification bets, the stick fight on vault may be the most interesting part of the semifinal. We don't really know who will have the edge there going into Super Six yet.
But now I'm going to say something controversial. It almost hurts to say it, but it may be time to take Chayse Capps out of the floor lineup. OK, I got it out. Now we can work through it as a group. Obviously, the performance is wonderful. That's not in doubt, but the tumbling and the scores have not followed. Another 9.775 at regionals. That lineup can seriously get close to a 49.6 and be a real asset in Super Six, but if they have an opening 9.775-9.800, that means everyone else has to have the perfect routine. It's a conundrum.
LSU
LSU has let off the gas a little bit as the season wears down. For almost the entire year, LSU looked like an equal third challenger with Oklahoma and Florida in the fight for the title, scoring 198s and coming up with big wins over Florida and Alabama. But lately, the performances haven't been quite as convincing. LSU finished 2nd at SECs after it appeared Florida handed them the competition on a platter, and then they went into regionals and recorded a 197.175 with a clinic on tightness on bars and beam. LSU still has the quality to win the title, but recent showings have seemed a clear and significant step below championship level.
The Tigers do come into the semifinal as a very comfortable pick to make Super Six, but if there's a competition as to which of the three top seeds seems the most likely to be upset, LSU has suddenly moved to the top of that list. At regionals, they finished just 0.225 ahead of a Nebraska team that likewise didn't have anything resembling an all-time best performance, and that margin should be bigger. It's way too close for comfort heading to Friday.
April 13, 2015
National Championship Preview Part 1: The Afternoon Semifinal of Horrors
Every year, at the first press conference at nationals, Sarah Patterson's first comment was always, "You never take for granted making Super Six." Actually, I'm sure she only said it about once, but in my head it was every moment of the day, every year. Sarah Patterson talking about not taking Super Six for granted and how it's harder to win the SEC Championship than the national title, which makes no damn sense.
But the not taking it for granted part? Never been truer than it is about this year's first semifinal. There are no soft teams and no obvious results here. It's going to be remarkable. At least it better be. The competitors are Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, and Stanford, and pretty much any finishing order seems plausible. The only true surprise here would be if Florida fails to make Super Six. Anything else would sound about right, really. All six of these schools are 197 teams, so we can't expect the 197 standard on which we usually judge the better teams to be good enough. It won't be good enough. Last year, Utah set the record for the highest ever semifinal score that didn't advance to Super Six with a 197.025. I'll be disappointed if that record isn't broken this year. A score like 197.025 shouldn't make it out of this semifinal, because that will mean several teams did not perform at the level we expect. So let's get into it.
FLORIDA
Of all the teams in this semifinal, Florida is the safest. The Gators are the most likely to get a huge score and are the only team in this group that can feel comfortable with their qualification outlook as long as they don't count a fall. Count a fall, and I have no confidence in anything, but if Florida hits 5-for-6 on each event, everything should be fine. Even if the performance is sort of meh like it was at regionals. Florida scored a 197.475 for that meh performance, which will be enough to make Super Six.
It's tough to make prognostications about how Super Six will go at this point because we don't know who's going to be there or how these teams will look once the weekend rolls around. There are always several teams who suddenly learn how to land vaults between regionals and nationals, and a couple other teams who probably should have and didn't. Still, Florida's performance at regionals did not scream "NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP." Fortunately for them, neither did anyone else's. This is open. It shouldn't be like the men's championship over the weekend when Oklahoma just came in and Biles-ed the whole thing.
If Florida is really going to win, there's work to be done. Certainly, bars was the biggest problem at regionals with a whole bunch of "Is it January already?" landings. I'm sure right now they're spending all the live long day in the gym working the crap out of those bars landings so that it doesn't happen again, but let's not forget about the beam questions as well. Yes, Florida recovered from the SEC Championship catastrophe to hit six beam routines at regionals, but even with good hits from Sloan and Hunter, the score was still 49.325, which is somewhat troubling for a hit rotation if we assume it's going to take a 198 to win the title. It took a 198 last year, and the scoring landscape is the same this year. 49.325s put a ton of pressure on the other events. 49.325s are what knocked LSU out of the title race last year.
In reaction to the disaster from SECs, Florida reorganized the beam lineup, moving Boyce to the first spot. She had a pretty significant wobble at regionals and still got a 9.800, which is a good sign for the team, but I do wonder if they have compromised their scoring potential a bit by moving Boyce because she has proven to be the second-most-likely 9.9 in that lineup behind Sloan. Watch that space during the semifinals. Have they given away a 9.9 in exchange for stability?
But this year, if Florida is going to make it three titles in a row, it will be about vaulting like monsters and winning that event. The Gator identity has changed from last year. With the loss of Caquatto and Johnson and the addition of Baker and McMurtry, this team has become less about bars and more about power. They're much better on vault this year, and what was probably the biggest question mark in 2014 (aside from beam consistency, because always) has become the biggest asset. Their scoring capability is crazy, which we know because they got a 49.625 at regionals while sticking just one of six vaults. What are they going to get when they actually hit these vaults, the presidency? Probably. But, still a couple things with that. At nationals, you can't expect to get a 49.625 for one stuck vault. And you can't expect to stick one vault and win. It doesn't work like that. Usually. Or it shouldn't. It's critical that they really take advantage of the vaults they have and open up that lead.
UTAH
First of all, pull yourself together, Utah. That thing you did at regionals was not OK. I hope everyone bought Georgia Dabritz a gold-encrusted manor house filled with baby rabbits after that performance, because she was the only thing standing between Utah and elimination. Utah does come into this semifinal as the second-ranked team, but after regionals, I would not consider this team any kind of a safe bet. The biggest issue at regionals was obviously having to count a fall and a major error on beam (How Rowe escaped from that routine with a 9.700, I'm still not sure...), so hitting that event in the semifinal is job #1. Utah will do beam in the very first rotation, and that will be the most important single event performance in this semifinal. Utah's ability or inability to hit beam will dictate how competitive this session ends up being and how many teams are truly in it.
If Utah gets through beam, they're right in this with a solid shot at advancing, but I wouldn't say it's smooth sailing after beam because that regional performance revealed some other major issues. Keep in mind that even if we gave Utah 0.500 back for the second beam fall at regionals, the total would still have been 197.075, which is not safe. It wasn't entirely a beam issue.
But the not taking it for granted part? Never been truer than it is about this year's first semifinal. There are no soft teams and no obvious results here. It's going to be remarkable. At least it better be. The competitors are Florida, Utah, Michigan, UCLA, Georgia, and Stanford, and pretty much any finishing order seems plausible. The only true surprise here would be if Florida fails to make Super Six. Anything else would sound about right, really. All six of these schools are 197 teams, so we can't expect the 197 standard on which we usually judge the better teams to be good enough. It won't be good enough. Last year, Utah set the record for the highest ever semifinal score that didn't advance to Super Six with a 197.025. I'll be disappointed if that record isn't broken this year. A score like 197.025 shouldn't make it out of this semifinal, because that will mean several teams did not perform at the level we expect. So let's get into it.
FLORIDA
Of all the teams in this semifinal, Florida is the safest. The Gators are the most likely to get a huge score and are the only team in this group that can feel comfortable with their qualification outlook as long as they don't count a fall. Count a fall, and I have no confidence in anything, but if Florida hits 5-for-6 on each event, everything should be fine. Even if the performance is sort of meh like it was at regionals. Florida scored a 197.475 for that meh performance, which will be enough to make Super Six.
It's tough to make prognostications about how Super Six will go at this point because we don't know who's going to be there or how these teams will look once the weekend rolls around. There are always several teams who suddenly learn how to land vaults between regionals and nationals, and a couple other teams who probably should have and didn't. Still, Florida's performance at regionals did not scream "NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP." Fortunately for them, neither did anyone else's. This is open. It shouldn't be like the men's championship over the weekend when Oklahoma just came in and Biles-ed the whole thing.
If Florida is really going to win, there's work to be done. Certainly, bars was the biggest problem at regionals with a whole bunch of "Is it January already?" landings. I'm sure right now they're spending all the live long day in the gym working the crap out of those bars landings so that it doesn't happen again, but let's not forget about the beam questions as well. Yes, Florida recovered from the SEC Championship catastrophe to hit six beam routines at regionals, but even with good hits from Sloan and Hunter, the score was still 49.325, which is somewhat troubling for a hit rotation if we assume it's going to take a 198 to win the title. It took a 198 last year, and the scoring landscape is the same this year. 49.325s put a ton of pressure on the other events. 49.325s are what knocked LSU out of the title race last year.
In reaction to the disaster from SECs, Florida reorganized the beam lineup, moving Boyce to the first spot. She had a pretty significant wobble at regionals and still got a 9.800, which is a good sign for the team, but I do wonder if they have compromised their scoring potential a bit by moving Boyce because she has proven to be the second-most-likely 9.9 in that lineup behind Sloan. Watch that space during the semifinals. Have they given away a 9.9 in exchange for stability?
But this year, if Florida is going to make it three titles in a row, it will be about vaulting like monsters and winning that event. The Gator identity has changed from last year. With the loss of Caquatto and Johnson and the addition of Baker and McMurtry, this team has become less about bars and more about power. They're much better on vault this year, and what was probably the biggest question mark in 2014 (aside from beam consistency, because always) has become the biggest asset. Their scoring capability is crazy, which we know because they got a 49.625 at regionals while sticking just one of six vaults. What are they going to get when they actually hit these vaults, the presidency? Probably. But, still a couple things with that. At nationals, you can't expect to get a 49.625 for one stuck vault. And you can't expect to stick one vault and win. It doesn't work like that. Usually. Or it shouldn't. It's critical that they really take advantage of the vaults they have and open up that lead.
UTAH
First of all, pull yourself together, Utah. That thing you did at regionals was not OK. I hope everyone bought Georgia Dabritz a gold-encrusted manor house filled with baby rabbits after that performance, because she was the only thing standing between Utah and elimination. Utah does come into this semifinal as the second-ranked team, but after regionals, I would not consider this team any kind of a safe bet. The biggest issue at regionals was obviously having to count a fall and a major error on beam (How Rowe escaped from that routine with a 9.700, I'm still not sure...), so hitting that event in the semifinal is job #1. Utah will do beam in the very first rotation, and that will be the most important single event performance in this semifinal. Utah's ability or inability to hit beam will dictate how competitive this session ends up being and how many teams are truly in it.
If Utah gets through beam, they're right in this with a solid shot at advancing, but I wouldn't say it's smooth sailing after beam because that regional performance revealed some other major issues. Keep in mind that even if we gave Utah 0.500 back for the second beam fall at regionals, the total would still have been 197.075, which is not safe. It wasn't entirely a beam issue.
April 9, 2015
Onward to Nationals
One week to go until the national championship. Start getting emotionally prepared. Here's a look at how the semifinals will shape up.
We've ended up with a relatively lopsided arrangement this year, with one semifinal featuring three clear favorites in Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama, and the other containing a whole bunch of bubble teams. That afternoon semifinal is going to be serious and seriously competitive, so make sure you'll be available to lap up the whole thing at the super convenient time of 1pm CT on a Friday. Everyone's always free then, right?
I'll do the usual previewing next week and break down some of these rotation orders (UCLA starts on floor, so Miss Val will already have broken six vases about it because we know how she feels about starting on floor). But for now, here's the scoring comparison for the teams in each semifinal, including all the usual info along with the scores achieved on each event at regionals. Categories in which a team ranks in the top three (qualifying position) are highlighted in blue.
SEMIFINAL 1
FLORIDA
Regional score: 197.475 [2]
RQS: 197.790 [1]
Season high: 198.225 [2]
Regular season average: 197.536 [1]
VT average: 49.482 [1]
VT RQS: 49.540 [2]
VT regional score: 49.625 [1]
UB average: 49.409 [1]
UB RQS: 49.500 [1]
UB regional score: 49.125 [4]
BB average: 49.225 [2]
BB RQS: 49.360 [2]
BB regional score: 49.325 [3]
FX average: 49.420 [1]
FX RQS: 49.505 [1]
FX regional score: 49.400 [2]
UTAH
Regional score: 196.575 [6]
RQS: 197.670 [2]
Season high: 198.250 [1]
Regular season average: 197.418 [2]
VT average: 49.480 [2]
VT RQS: 49.560 [1]
VT regional score: 49.500 [2]
UB average: 49.398 [2]
UB RQS: 49.500 [1]
UB regional score: 49.075 [5]
BB average: 49.205 [3]
BB RQS: 49.320 [4]
BB regional score: 48.625 [6]
FX average: 49.336 [2]
FX RQS: 49.415 [2]
FX regional score: 49.375 [3]
MICHIGAN
Regional score: 197.000 [4]
RQS: 197.270 [3]
Season high: 197.825 [5]
Regular season average: 197.143 [3]
VT average: 49.264 [4]
VT RQS: 49.330 [4]
VT regional score: 49.175 [6]
UB average: 49.264 [3]
UB RQS: 49.370 [4]
UB regional score: 49.150 [3]
BB average: 49.286 [1]
BB RQS: 49.325 [3]
BB regional score: 49.250 [4]
FX average: 49.330 [3]
FX RQS: 49.365 [3]
FX regional score: 49.425 [1]
We've ended up with a relatively lopsided arrangement this year, with one semifinal featuring three clear favorites in Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama, and the other containing a whole bunch of bubble teams. That afternoon semifinal is going to be serious and seriously competitive, so make sure you'll be available to lap up the whole thing at the super convenient time of 1pm CT on a Friday. Everyone's always free then, right?
I'll do the usual previewing next week and break down some of these rotation orders (UCLA starts on floor, so Miss Val will already have broken six vases about it because we know how she feels about starting on floor). But for now, here's the scoring comparison for the teams in each semifinal, including all the usual info along with the scores achieved on each event at regionals. Categories in which a team ranks in the top three (qualifying position) are highlighted in blue.
SEMIFINAL 1
FLORIDA
Regional score: 197.475 [2]
RQS: 197.790 [1]
Season high: 198.225 [2]
Regular season average: 197.536 [1]
VT average: 49.482 [1]
VT RQS: 49.540 [2]
VT regional score: 49.625 [1]
UB average: 49.409 [1]
UB RQS: 49.500 [1]
UB regional score: 49.125 [4]
BB average: 49.225 [2]
BB RQS: 49.360 [2]
BB regional score: 49.325 [3]
FX average: 49.420 [1]
FX RQS: 49.505 [1]
FX regional score: 49.400 [2]
UTAH
Regional score: 196.575 [6]
RQS: 197.670 [2]
Season high: 198.250 [1]
Regular season average: 197.418 [2]
VT average: 49.480 [2]
VT RQS: 49.560 [1]
VT regional score: 49.500 [2]
UB average: 49.398 [2]
UB RQS: 49.500 [1]
UB regional score: 49.075 [5]
BB average: 49.205 [3]
BB RQS: 49.320 [4]
BB regional score: 48.625 [6]
FX average: 49.336 [2]
FX RQS: 49.415 [2]
FX regional score: 49.375 [3]
MICHIGAN
Regional score: 197.000 [4]
RQS: 197.270 [3]
Season high: 197.825 [5]
Regular season average: 197.143 [3]
VT average: 49.264 [4]
VT RQS: 49.330 [4]
VT regional score: 49.175 [6]
UB average: 49.264 [3]
UB RQS: 49.370 [4]
UB regional score: 49.150 [3]
BB average: 49.286 [1]
BB RQS: 49.325 [3]
BB regional score: 49.250 [4]
FX average: 49.330 [3]
FX RQS: 49.365 [3]
FX regional score: 49.425 [1]
April 20, 2014
Event Finals Live Blog
Barely. I barely know where to begin about yesterday. That was a completely thrilling, high-quality competition, as simultaneously exciting and well-executed as college gymnastics is supposed to be. Best Super Six ever? It has a good argument. That makes two of the last three seasons with incredibly close finishes, which never used to happen, especially when Georgia and UCLA were in their years of winning by a million points. Something I rail against, the margins between the scores being so small all the time without significant separation between good and great routines, is actually what leads to these finishes. So at least something good comes out of it.
As for the tie, I'm still in several minds about it. On the one hand, finishing with two winners is all a little cute. It's a little "hooray for everyone." Almost deflating after the exciting back and forth. I wouldn't have been mad at them for breaking the tie. It's sport. It's supposed to be ruthless. At the same time, I'm so glad that Oklahoma won its first national championship that I'm basically OK with the tie. Oklahoma had an amazing competition last night - and consistently performs such clean, beautiful, confident, and creative gymnastics - so if the tie had been broken (which would have given Florida the win), it would have felt like the Sooners had been cheated out of a maiden title.
And now after that we're supposed to focus on event finals? It's going to be tough, especially because we'll be paying more attention to all the people who didn't advance to finals since there are so many major routines not competing today. If you have 16 people in beam finals, but none of them are Danusia Francis, does it make a sound? Can we at least try to make Katherine Grable's floor go viral? The event begins at 2:00 CT. Here's the order:
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
As for the tie, I'm still in several minds about it. On the one hand, finishing with two winners is all a little cute. It's a little "hooray for everyone." Almost deflating after the exciting back and forth. I wouldn't have been mad at them for breaking the tie. It's sport. It's supposed to be ruthless. At the same time, I'm so glad that Oklahoma won its first national championship that I'm basically OK with the tie. Oklahoma had an amazing competition last night - and consistently performs such clean, beautiful, confident, and creative gymnastics - so if the tie had been broken (which would have given Florida the win), it would have felt like the Sooners had been cheated out of a maiden title.
And now after that we're supposed to focus on event finals? It's going to be tough, especially because we'll be paying more attention to all the people who didn't advance to finals since there are so many major routines not competing today. If you have 16 people in beam finals, but none of them are Danusia Francis, does it make a sound? Can we at least try to make Katherine Grable's floor go viral? The event begins at 2:00 CT. Here's the order:
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
April 19, 2014
Super Six Live Blog
Here we are, old friends. You and me, on the last day. Well, the second-to-last day. But the big day. The conclusion of what everyone has been working toward all season. In a few hours, we'll have a team champion. The meet will begin at 6 CT.
I will use this opportunity for my annual banning of the phrase "wanted it more." They won because they wanted it more? Good thing none of the other teams wanted to win, then. Just once I would like a coach to credit victory to something honest like "we won because our gymnastics is better than that of the other teams." I'm not holding my breath.
Here's the rotation order for the day:
I'm done saying that I don't like starting on floor as a rotation order for Nebraska because, counter-intuitively, they seem to be doing just fine with it. Going to the last rotation last night, they had the hardest job - behind both Utah and UCLA and finishing on beam compared to vault and bars - but performed the best, while the others did the hoppity hoppity hop on their landings.
I don't think any of the teams should be all too pained by this order. I don't love it for LSU because I think it's really tough for teams to begin Super Six on an event where they need a big score, especially if it's a weaker event for them. LSU has to hit bars much better than they did yesterday to keep up, so they can't afford any of those telltale signs of big-meet tightness like short handstands. Last year in Super Six, LSU also started on bars, and their 49.200 was the low bars score and very much hurt their ability to contend.
I still think Florida enters as the favorite. There is just so much room for improvement on yesterday's gymnastics, and they did manage to tie Alabama for the top score. But then again, I didn't even mention Kim Jacob as one of the nominees for the AA title, so me . . .
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
I will use this opportunity for my annual banning of the phrase "wanted it more." They won because they wanted it more? Good thing none of the other teams wanted to win, then. Just once I would like a coach to credit victory to something honest like "we won because our gymnastics is better than that of the other teams." I'm not holding my breath.
Here's the rotation order for the day:
I'm done saying that I don't like starting on floor as a rotation order for Nebraska because, counter-intuitively, they seem to be doing just fine with it. Going to the last rotation last night, they had the hardest job - behind both Utah and UCLA and finishing on beam compared to vault and bars - but performed the best, while the others did the hoppity hoppity hop on their landings.
I don't think any of the teams should be all too pained by this order. I don't love it for LSU because I think it's really tough for teams to begin Super Six on an event where they need a big score, especially if it's a weaker event for them. LSU has to hit bars much better than they did yesterday to keep up, so they can't afford any of those telltale signs of big-meet tightness like short handstands. Last year in Super Six, LSU also started on bars, and their 49.200 was the low bars score and very much hurt their ability to contend.
I still think Florida enters as the favorite. There is just so much room for improvement on yesterday's gymnastics, and they did manage to tie Alabama for the top score. But then again, I didn't even mention Kim Jacob as one of the nominees for the AA title, so me . . .
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
April 18, 2014
National Semifinals Live Blog - Get Excited Immediately
The time is now. The day is here. All we know is that it will end in tears.
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
ROTATION ORDER
Here is a comparison of the regionals scores for the teams in each semifinal. Top three on each event are highlighted.
We don't have full lineups for the first semifinal yet, but Georgia has released theirs, which they always do in a timely fashion. Broussard is indeed in on beam and floor, and Johnson remains in the anchor position on vault.
This race for the final qualification spot in the first semi is going to be a good one. We'll know a lot after Michigan does beam in the second rotation.
We begin at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT.
LIVE SCORES
LIVE VIDEO
ROTATION ORDER
Here is a comparison of the regionals scores for the teams in each semifinal. Top three on each event are highlighted.
We don't have full lineups for the first semifinal yet, but Georgia has released theirs, which they always do in a timely fashion. Broussard is indeed in on beam and floor, and Johnson remains in the anchor position on vault.
This race for the final qualification spot in the first semi is going to be a good one. We'll know a lot after Michigan does beam in the second rotation.
We begin at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT.
April 17, 2014
Wake Up, It's Nationals Tomorrow
-A few bits and pieces first. The late (aka, regular) NLI signing period started yesterday, so be on the lookout for some commitment news over the next week or so. Already, we've heard that Natalie Vaculik is heading to Georgia for 2014-2015. There was some discussion about her trying for the Olympics, but she's going now instead. She'll take the scholarship spot that was to be Brianna Brown's before she switched to Michigan. Georgia's bars strength has a dominant road in front of it for the long term - Natalie has her sister's gienger.
-As mentioned yesterday, Emily Wong won the AAI Award this season. That was a tough field. So many gems.
-Also, apropos of nothing, this why I enjoy Rhonda Faehn:
"I wasn't nervous, I was just panicked about having my pants."
But now here we are. The National Semifinals are tomorrow. These two semifinals will decide the six teams that advance to super six, the minimum-eight-maximum-a-trillion people advancing to event finals, and the national all-around champion. Both semifinal sessions will be streamed live here. (NOTE that the times listed are Central, even though it says Eastern. The sessions are at 1:00 CT and 7:00 CT.)
The rotation schedule.
If you haven't checked out the previews, here they are:
Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, and Illinois
Utah, UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State
Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama
Individuals
Elizabeth Grimsley reports that Brittany Rogers trained only bars for Georgia today and that Ashlyn Broussard was in on floor. Watch that Georgia beam.
If you're looking for team scoresheets for each semifinal (regional scores included):
Semifinal #1
Semifinal #2
-As mentioned yesterday, Emily Wong won the AAI Award this season. That was a tough field. So many gems.
-Also, apropos of nothing, this why I enjoy Rhonda Faehn:
"I wasn't nervous, I was just panicked about having my pants."
But now here we are. The National Semifinals are tomorrow. These two semifinals will decide the six teams that advance to super six, the minimum-eight-maximum-a-trillion people advancing to event finals, and the national all-around champion. Both semifinal sessions will be streamed live here. (NOTE that the times listed are Central, even though it says Eastern. The sessions are at 1:00 CT and 7:00 CT.)
The rotation schedule.
Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, and Illinois
Utah, UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State
Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama
Individuals
Elizabeth Grimsley reports that Brittany Rogers trained only bars for Georgia today and that Ashlyn Broussard was in on floor. Watch that Georgia beam.
If you're looking for team scoresheets for each semifinal (regional scores included):
Semifinal #1
Semifinal #2
April 16, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 4: Individual Times
Now that we've dispensed with the teams, let's take some time to enjoy the best individuals NCAA has to offer. The all-around competition doesn't get as much attention at nationals because the AA title is decided on Friday when the main focus is team qualification, but it's still always one of the most exciting parts of the event and worth at least several paragraphs of discussion.
I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.
For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.
Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825
The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.
Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750
Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.
Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725
Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.
I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.
For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.
Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825
The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.
Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750
Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.
Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725
Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.
April 15, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 3: They'll Cut Each Other
When considering the quality of the top four teams and the competitive Super Six they are likely to produce for us this year, I am reminded of the words of the great Jean-Ralphio Saperstein: "That snizz is straight-up deloycious."
Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama have all reached the 198s this season and can all make at least a moderately convincing argument as a challenger for the ultimate crown, having consistently traded off recording the top score in the country all season. If these four teams do end up making Super Six, it will be a fantastically exciting competition. Be sure to have your anxiety medication, your therapy dog, and an entire birthday cake close to you once Super Six begins because you will need all three at various points.
This year, we don't have a team occupying the same coveted favorite position that Florida did last year as the clear #1 team to end the regular season that won SECs, dominated a home regional, and came into nationals as the presumptive winner barring disaster (or not even barring disaster as it turned out). This year, Florida finished the season as the clear #1 once again, but they lost at SECs and put in a moderately severe stinker at regionals. There are similar complications to the route to a title for Oklahoma, Alabama, and LSU. They have all scored well, but no one is a clear dominant force going into nationals. But someone will emerge.
A caveat: These teams are not far enough removed from the rest of the competition that their qualifications to Super Six should be taken as a given. They're close enough to the rest of the pack that they shouldn't be able to get away with a mental catastrophe in semifinals, at least with all other things being hit. Should they put in clean rotations, however, they'll all advance to Saturday, so in addressing these teams, I'm looking at what they need to do to win the title, not simply to advance to Super Six. Let's begin, shall we?
FLORIDA
We were all beset by flashbacks of Super Six 2013 after Florida counted a fall on beam at regionals last week, recalling their way-too-dramatic run to the title last season. Of course, it could just as easily have reminded us of the Great Beam Horror of 2011 or several others in their line of previous setbacks, but winning a national title changes the narrative. We don't think of Florida as the team that almost succeeds anymore, we think of Florida as a team impervious to mistakes, that wins championships even when kind of falling apart. After that beam fall at regionals, they seemed guaranteed to come back and get another 49.abillion on floor in the next rotation, but they didn't, which was interesting. They had some strong routines, but also a fall and a counting 9.7. The mistakes festered for multiple rotations instead of being instantly erased.
Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama have all reached the 198s this season and can all make at least a moderately convincing argument as a challenger for the ultimate crown, having consistently traded off recording the top score in the country all season. If these four teams do end up making Super Six, it will be a fantastically exciting competition. Be sure to have your anxiety medication, your therapy dog, and an entire birthday cake close to you once Super Six begins because you will need all three at various points.
This year, we don't have a team occupying the same coveted favorite position that Florida did last year as the clear #1 team to end the regular season that won SECs, dominated a home regional, and came into nationals as the presumptive winner barring disaster (or not even barring disaster as it turned out). This year, Florida finished the season as the clear #1 once again, but they lost at SECs and put in a moderately severe stinker at regionals. There are similar complications to the route to a title for Oklahoma, Alabama, and LSU. They have all scored well, but no one is a clear dominant force going into nationals. But someone will emerge.
A caveat: These teams are not far enough removed from the rest of the competition that their qualifications to Super Six should be taken as a given. They're close enough to the rest of the pack that they shouldn't be able to get away with a mental catastrophe in semifinals, at least with all other things being hit. Should they put in clean rotations, however, they'll all advance to Saturday, so in addressing these teams, I'm looking at what they need to do to win the title, not simply to advance to Super Six. Let's begin, shall we?
FLORIDA
We were all beset by flashbacks of Super Six 2013 after Florida counted a fall on beam at regionals last week, recalling their way-too-dramatic run to the title last season. Of course, it could just as easily have reminded us of the Great Beam Horror of 2011 or several others in their line of previous setbacks, but winning a national title changes the narrative. We don't think of Florida as the team that almost succeeds anymore, we think of Florida as a team impervious to mistakes, that wins championships even when kind of falling apart. After that beam fall at regionals, they seemed guaranteed to come back and get another 49.abillion on floor in the next rotation, but they didn't, which was interesting. They had some strong routines, but also a fall and a counting 9.7. The mistakes festered for multiple rotations instead of being instantly erased.
April 13, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 2: Who Is Suddenly Amazing?
Let us now move on to the quest to qualify out of the second semifinal. As with Oklahoma and LSU in the first session, I'll save the outlooks on Florida's and Alabama's chances for later because they are the most likely to advance from this session (barring a Florida-at-regionals level repeat) and to go on to contend for the national title. For now, it's time to look at Utah, UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State and their various chances to advance out of this semifinal.
Of the two semifinals, this is the more likely to be straightforward. Given what Florida, Alabama, and Utah have been scoring this season compared to UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see those three pull ahead early and stay ahead throughout. But, this is nationals. It wouldn't be the kooky competition we know and love without a few crazy falls, so don't count it as over and done too early. It's not as clear cut as last year's afternoon semifinal was, when Florida, LSU, and Georgia had basically already advanced over Minnesota, Stanford, and Illinois before the meet even began. There's more chance for an upset this year. As in the early session, it should take over a 197 to advance, so the 197+ standard is how we must evaluate all the teams.
UTAH
Utah is a cusp team this year, sitting on the border between the favorites and the contenders. At times, they have scored right with the top teams in the country, getting some high 197s and that home 198, but at other times, they have looked a step behind, usually the result of a beam rotation that - even though the falling ship has been righted - isn't scoring competitively enough to keep them on that 198 pace. Right now Utah looks like a safe-ish pick to make it back to Super Six and reclaim the team's honor after a program-worst finish of 9th last season, but they will be an outsider in the race to do damage once they get to Super Six.
The Utes will have the same rotation order they did at regionals, beginning on bars and finishing on vault. Regionals was not the best showing for the team, so even though an identical 197.300 could very well end up making it through from this semifinal, they'll want to improve on what happened in Fayetteville in order to eliminate any questions about who will qualify. A lot of that potential improvement can come right from the first rotation on bars. The 49.250 from regionals is a fine number but much lower than they have been scoring this season, with every member of the lineup coming in below her RQS. Utah makes its money on bars by sticking the hell out of all its landings, and that didn't happen enough at regionals. If Utah is to reach its goal of ensuring this semifinal is completely uninteresting, they'll need to stick all the way through the lineup like they did in last year's semifinal for a 49.475. Bars was by far their best event at championships last season, which was quite unexpected. They could use a similarly unexpected massive hit as early insurance at this meet, just in case beam is a little beamy.
Of the two semifinals, this is the more likely to be straightforward. Given what Florida, Alabama, and Utah have been scoring this season compared to UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see those three pull ahead early and stay ahead throughout. But, this is nationals. It wouldn't be the kooky competition we know and love without a few crazy falls, so don't count it as over and done too early. It's not as clear cut as last year's afternoon semifinal was, when Florida, LSU, and Georgia had basically already advanced over Minnesota, Stanford, and Illinois before the meet even began. There's more chance for an upset this year. As in the early session, it should take over a 197 to advance, so the 197+ standard is how we must evaluate all the teams.
UTAH
Utah is a cusp team this year, sitting on the border between the favorites and the contenders. At times, they have scored right with the top teams in the country, getting some high 197s and that home 198, but at other times, they have looked a step behind, usually the result of a beam rotation that - even though the falling ship has been righted - isn't scoring competitively enough to keep them on that 198 pace. Right now Utah looks like a safe-ish pick to make it back to Super Six and reclaim the team's honor after a program-worst finish of 9th last season, but they will be an outsider in the race to do damage once they get to Super Six.
The Utes will have the same rotation order they did at regionals, beginning on bars and finishing on vault. Regionals was not the best showing for the team, so even though an identical 197.300 could very well end up making it through from this semifinal, they'll want to improve on what happened in Fayetteville in order to eliminate any questions about who will qualify. A lot of that potential improvement can come right from the first rotation on bars. The 49.250 from regionals is a fine number but much lower than they have been scoring this season, with every member of the lineup coming in below her RQS. Utah makes its money on bars by sticking the hell out of all its landings, and that didn't happen enough at regionals. If Utah is to reach its goal of ensuring this semifinal is completely uninteresting, they'll need to stick all the way through the lineup like they did in last year's semifinal for a 49.475. Bars was by far their best event at championships last season, which was quite unexpected. They could use a similarly unexpected massive hit as early insurance at this meet, just in case beam is a little beamy.
April 12, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 1: All About the Beamjamins
(Do you like the title? Thank you. I'm very proud of myself.)
The NCAA National Championship is less than a week away, people. One week, and then it's over. I'm definitely not ready for the season to be finished yet. Then, we'll have to focus on elite gymnastics, which is always a challenge at first. I watched the women's team competition at Pac Rims this week (P.S. how do they expect anyone to spend time writing previews for Nationals when Pac Rims and Men's NCAA Champs are going on?) and it was hard to shift gears back to elite and remember that you're allowed to have a lot of mistakes and wobbles and breaks and bound on landings and it's still considered a good routine. Also that corner rule, you guys . . . I just can't with it. I feel like it's getting even worse. It might be more upsetting than the pointed-toe, duck-with-rigor-mortis running they're already forced to do to connect dance elements. It's just the dumbest.
But I digress. For now, we still have NCAA Nationals to enjoy, so over the coming days I'll be previewing the competition by assessing the chances for each of the twelve qualified teams - what constitutes a likely outcome and what they will need to do to attain it. Based on what we've seen over the past few weeks, this season defies any "favorite" status for any of the teams. No one hangs onto being the favorite for more than a week or so before they start counting falls on beam, which should make for an exciting competition. In the men's championship yesterday, after the first rotation Michigan was all, "Oh wait, now we could fall a thousand times and still win. Peace out." I don't expect such a scenario in the women's championship. There are several teams with solid arguments for the championship, and they should be fighting it out until the end of Super Six. I'll save their preview for later. For this preview of the afternoon session, I'll withhold Oklahoma and LSU until then and limit it to addressing the fight to qualify with Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, and Illinois. It is by no means guaranteed that Oklahoma and LSU will advance, but for the purpose of setting the scene, this is the most likely scenario.
The first session looks to be the more exciting of the two semifinals, and the quest to qualify out of the afternoon session is perhaps the most interesting storyline we have going into Nationals in that no teams looks like a frontrunner. There is no expected scenario or upset scenario, just several teams that could end up in any order. Georgia is the highest ranked of the contending trio, ahead of Michigan and Stanford, but at both conference championships and regionals, they had the lowest score of the three. Stanford is the lowest ranked, but looked the strongest and most consistent at regionals.
This semifinal also looks like a pretty good bet to make a tiny blip on the history radar. No team has ever scored a 197 in a semifinal and failed to advance to Super Six. The highest score ever to lose in a semifinal is Oklahoma's 196.925 from 2012, but if all these teams hit regular meets, we could see five 197s. It could take as much as a 197.4-197.5 to begin to feel comfortable with qualifying, which is great. It should take brilliance to make Super Six, and that's what will be required here. Let's begin.
GEORGIA
It hasn't been a great end to the season for Georgia. They lost Brittany Rogers' contributions in the AA, finished 4th at SECs (expected, but still not exciting for the team), and then put together a downright lumpy performance at regionals. That's enough concentrated lackluster to make an argument for Georgia as easy choice for an upset in semifinals, but at the same time there is reason for optimism for the Gym Dogs. Even with that rather poor showing at regionals, they didn't finish all that far behind Michigan (who didn't have a great meet themselves, but also didn't count a fall). Get rid of the Hires mistake on floor, and the meet is even. Assume both teams show up on beam, and Georgia is out ahead. I'm not saying that's going to happen - there are quite a few leaping assumptions there - but even considering all their mistakes at regionals, the bars and vault advantages bode well for Georgia's chances to advance to Super Six for the second time in a row if they can be just fine on the other events and not go to pieces this time.
The NCAA National Championship is less than a week away, people. One week, and then it's over. I'm definitely not ready for the season to be finished yet. Then, we'll have to focus on elite gymnastics, which is always a challenge at first. I watched the women's team competition at Pac Rims this week (P.S. how do they expect anyone to spend time writing previews for Nationals when Pac Rims and Men's NCAA Champs are going on?) and it was hard to shift gears back to elite and remember that you're allowed to have a lot of mistakes and wobbles and breaks and bound on landings and it's still considered a good routine. Also that corner rule, you guys . . . I just can't with it. I feel like it's getting even worse. It might be more upsetting than the pointed-toe, duck-with-rigor-mortis running they're already forced to do to connect dance elements. It's just the dumbest.
But I digress. For now, we still have NCAA Nationals to enjoy, so over the coming days I'll be previewing the competition by assessing the chances for each of the twelve qualified teams - what constitutes a likely outcome and what they will need to do to attain it. Based on what we've seen over the past few weeks, this season defies any "favorite" status for any of the teams. No one hangs onto being the favorite for more than a week or so before they start counting falls on beam, which should make for an exciting competition. In the men's championship yesterday, after the first rotation Michigan was all, "Oh wait, now we could fall a thousand times and still win. Peace out." I don't expect such a scenario in the women's championship. There are several teams with solid arguments for the championship, and they should be fighting it out until the end of Super Six. I'll save their preview for later. For this preview of the afternoon session, I'll withhold Oklahoma and LSU until then and limit it to addressing the fight to qualify with Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, and Illinois. It is by no means guaranteed that Oklahoma and LSU will advance, but for the purpose of setting the scene, this is the most likely scenario.
The first session looks to be the more exciting of the two semifinals, and the quest to qualify out of the afternoon session is perhaps the most interesting storyline we have going into Nationals in that no teams looks like a frontrunner. There is no expected scenario or upset scenario, just several teams that could end up in any order. Georgia is the highest ranked of the contending trio, ahead of Michigan and Stanford, but at both conference championships and regionals, they had the lowest score of the three. Stanford is the lowest ranked, but looked the strongest and most consistent at regionals.
This semifinal also looks like a pretty good bet to make a tiny blip on the history radar. No team has ever scored a 197 in a semifinal and failed to advance to Super Six. The highest score ever to lose in a semifinal is Oklahoma's 196.925 from 2012, but if all these teams hit regular meets, we could see five 197s. It could take as much as a 197.4-197.5 to begin to feel comfortable with qualifying, which is great. It should take brilliance to make Super Six, and that's what will be required here. Let's begin.
GEORGIA
It hasn't been a great end to the season for Georgia. They lost Brittany Rogers' contributions in the AA, finished 4th at SECs (expected, but still not exciting for the team), and then put together a downright lumpy performance at regionals. That's enough concentrated lackluster to make an argument for Georgia as easy choice for an upset in semifinals, but at the same time there is reason for optimism for the Gym Dogs. Even with that rather poor showing at regionals, they didn't finish all that far behind Michigan (who didn't have a great meet themselves, but also didn't count a fall). Get rid of the Hires mistake on floor, and the meet is even. Assume both teams show up on beam, and Georgia is out ahead. I'm not saying that's going to happen - there are quite a few leaping assumptions there - but even considering all their mistakes at regionals, the bars and vault advantages bode well for Georgia's chances to advance to Super Six for the second time in a row if they can be just fine on the other events and not go to pieces this time.
April 9, 2014
Nationals Scoring Comparison
As I did with regionals, I've put together a comparison of relevant scores for the teams in each semifinal grouping at nationals, with each score followed by the team's ranking within its semifinal.
In addition to the event statistics, I've added in each team's highest score per event from regionals to tell us which teams are most likely to get that huge 9.950 at the end to save a rotation, but I've also included a total of the lowest counting scores on each event from regionals. I like the lowest counting score as a reference point because so many of these teams have top-scoring gymnasts hanging around that team titles are often decided by what happens early in the lineups.
Afternoon session:
OKLAHOMA
Regional score: 197.715 [2]
RQS: 197.775 [1]
Season high: 198.175 [2]
Regular season average: 197.513 [1]
VT average: 49.481 [2]
VT RQS: 49.525 [2]
VT regional score: 49.700 [1]
UB average: 49.315 [3]
UB RQS: 49.470 [2]
UB regional score: 49.175 [6]
BB average: 49.315 [1]
BB RQS: 49.445 [1]
BB regional score: 49.400 [3]
FX average: 49.418 [2]
FX RQS: 49.520 [1]
FX regional score: 49.450 [3]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.975; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.900; FX - 9.925; TOT - 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.800; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.425 [2]
LSU
Regional score: 198.325 [1]
RQS: 197.720 [2]
Season high: 198.325 [1]
Regular season average: 197.496 [2]
VT average: 49.506 [1]
VT RQS: 49.550 [1]
VT regional score: 49.650 [2]
UB average: 49.333 [2]
UB RQS: 49.430 [3]
UB regional score: 49.425 [2]
BB average: 49.268 [2]
BB RQS: 49.295 [2]
BB regional score: 49.600 [1]
FX average: 49.454 [1]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.650 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.975; FX - 10.000; TOT - 39.825 [1]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.475 [1]
Aside from Oklahoma's bars score from regionals, both Oklahoma and LSU are the favorites based on both recent and season-long performances. For the remaining teams, I have put in blue the areas where each is in the top three among the teams in the semifinal.
GEORGIA
Regional score: 196.375 [6]
RQS: 197.265 [3]
Season high: 197.650 [4]
Regular season average: 197.029 [3]
VT average: 49.342 [3]
VT RQS: 49.415 [3]
VT regional score: 49.425 [3]
UB average: 49.494 [1]
UB RQS: 49.580 [1]
UB regional score: 49.600 [1]
BB average: 49.046 [4]
BB RQS: 49.240 [4]
BB regional score: 48.475 [6]
FX average: 49.097 [5]
FX RQS: 49.280 [4]
FX regional score: 48.875 [6]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.950; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.825; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.250; FX - 9.475; TOT - 38.450 [6]
MICHIGAN
Regional score: 196.750 [4]
RQS: 197.105 [4]
Season high: 197.825 [3]
Regular season average: 196.791 [4]
VT average: 49.298 [4]
VT RQS: 49.365 [4]
VT regional score: 49.200 [4]
UB average: 49.244 [4]
UB RQS: 49.375 [4]
UB regional score: 49.275 [5]
BB average: 48.877 [6]
BB RQS: 49.075 [6]
BB regional score: 48.700 [5]
FX average: 49.369 [3]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.575 [2]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.950; TOT - 39.600 [6]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.750; UB - 9.800; BB - 9.600; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.050 [5]
STANFORD
Regional score: 197.275 [3]
RQS: 196.815 [5]
Season high: 197.275 [5]
Regular season average: 196.400 [5]
VT average: 49.206 [5]
VT RQS: 49.325 [5]
VT regional score: 49.175 [5]
UB average: 49.156 [5]
UB RQS: 49.305 [5]
UB regional score: 49.325 [4]
BB average: 49.108 [3]
BB RQS: 49.260 [3]
BB regional score: 49.450 [2]
FX average: 49.002 [6]
FX RQS: 49.120 [6]
FX regional score: 49.325 [4]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.875; UB - 9.950; BB - 9.925; FX - 9.875; TOT - 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.800; UB - 9.675; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.175 [3]
It's interesting how clear-cut the difference on the apparatuses is among these next three teams. Georgia is all about vault and bars, Michigan is all about floor, and Stanford is all about beam. Stanford's ideal route to Super Six would be identical to what happened at regionals: nail beam and hope that Georgia and Michigan struggle there. For Michigan, it's staying as close as possible on three events and burning down the floor to gain a big edge, and for Georgia, it's building up a big lead early and hoping it holds up.
ILLINOIS
Regional score: 196.600 [5]
RQS: 196.650 [6]
Season high: 197.100 [6]
Regular season average: 196.204 [6]
VT average: 49.034 [6]
VT RQS: 49.155 [6]
VT regional score: 49.025 [6]
UB average: 49.034 [6]
UB RQS: 49.205 [6]
UB regional score: 49.400 [3]
BB average: 49.035 [5]
BB RQS: 49.175 [5]
BB regional score: 49.150 [4]
FX average: 49.131 [4]
FX RQS: 49.240 [5]
FX regional score: 49.025 [5]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.925; BB - 9.900; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.725; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.800; FX - 9.725; TOT - 39.100 [4]
In addition to the event statistics, I've added in each team's highest score per event from regionals to tell us which teams are most likely to get that huge 9.950 at the end to save a rotation, but I've also included a total of the lowest counting scores on each event from regionals. I like the lowest counting score as a reference point because so many of these teams have top-scoring gymnasts hanging around that team titles are often decided by what happens early in the lineups.
Afternoon session:
OKLAHOMA
Regional score: 197.715 [2]
RQS: 197.775 [1]
Season high: 198.175 [2]
Regular season average: 197.513 [1]
VT average: 49.481 [2]
VT RQS: 49.525 [2]
VT regional score: 49.700 [1]
UB average: 49.315 [3]
UB RQS: 49.470 [2]
UB regional score: 49.175 [6]
BB average: 49.315 [1]
BB RQS: 49.445 [1]
BB regional score: 49.400 [3]
FX average: 49.418 [2]
FX RQS: 49.520 [1]
FX regional score: 49.450 [3]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.975; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.900; FX - 9.925; TOT - 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.800; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.425 [2]
LSU
Regional score: 198.325 [1]
RQS: 197.720 [2]
Season high: 198.325 [1]
Regular season average: 197.496 [2]
VT average: 49.506 [1]
VT RQS: 49.550 [1]
VT regional score: 49.650 [2]
UB average: 49.333 [2]
UB RQS: 49.430 [3]
UB regional score: 49.425 [2]
BB average: 49.268 [2]
BB RQS: 49.295 [2]
BB regional score: 49.600 [1]
FX average: 49.454 [1]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.650 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.975; FX - 10.000; TOT - 39.825 [1]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.475 [1]
Aside from Oklahoma's bars score from regionals, both Oklahoma and LSU are the favorites based on both recent and season-long performances. For the remaining teams, I have put in blue the areas where each is in the top three among the teams in the semifinal.
GEORGIA
Regional score: 196.375 [6]
RQS: 197.265 [3]
Season high: 197.650 [4]
Regular season average: 197.029 [3]
VT average: 49.342 [3]
VT RQS: 49.415 [3]
VT regional score: 49.425 [3]
UB average: 49.494 [1]
UB RQS: 49.580 [1]
UB regional score: 49.600 [1]
BB average: 49.046 [4]
BB RQS: 49.240 [4]
BB regional score: 48.475 [6]
FX average: 49.097 [5]
FX RQS: 49.280 [4]
FX regional score: 48.875 [6]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.950; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.825; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.250; FX - 9.475; TOT - 38.450 [6]
MICHIGAN
Regional score: 196.750 [4]
RQS: 197.105 [4]
Season high: 197.825 [3]
Regular season average: 196.791 [4]
VT average: 49.298 [4]
VT RQS: 49.365 [4]
VT regional score: 49.200 [4]
UB average: 49.244 [4]
UB RQS: 49.375 [4]
UB regional score: 49.275 [5]
BB average: 48.877 [6]
BB RQS: 49.075 [6]
BB regional score: 48.700 [5]
FX average: 49.369 [3]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.575 [2]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.950; TOT - 39.600 [6]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.750; UB - 9.800; BB - 9.600; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.050 [5]
STANFORD
Regional score: 197.275 [3]
RQS: 196.815 [5]
Season high: 197.275 [5]
Regular season average: 196.400 [5]
VT average: 49.206 [5]
VT RQS: 49.325 [5]
VT regional score: 49.175 [5]
UB average: 49.156 [5]
UB RQS: 49.305 [5]
UB regional score: 49.325 [4]
BB average: 49.108 [3]
BB RQS: 49.260 [3]
BB regional score: 49.450 [2]
FX average: 49.002 [6]
FX RQS: 49.120 [6]
FX regional score: 49.325 [4]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.875; UB - 9.950; BB - 9.925; FX - 9.875; TOT - 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.800; UB - 9.675; BB - 9.850; FX - 9.850; TOT - 39.175 [3]
It's interesting how clear-cut the difference on the apparatuses is among these next three teams. Georgia is all about vault and bars, Michigan is all about floor, and Stanford is all about beam. Stanford's ideal route to Super Six would be identical to what happened at regionals: nail beam and hope that Georgia and Michigan struggle there. For Michigan, it's staying as close as possible on three events and burning down the floor to gain a big edge, and for Georgia, it's building up a big lead early and hoping it holds up.
ILLINOIS
Regional score: 196.600 [5]
RQS: 196.650 [6]
Season high: 197.100 [6]
Regular season average: 196.204 [6]
VT average: 49.034 [6]
VT RQS: 49.155 [6]
VT regional score: 49.025 [6]
UB average: 49.034 [6]
UB RQS: 49.205 [6]
UB regional score: 49.400 [3]
BB average: 49.035 [5]
BB RQS: 49.175 [5]
BB regional score: 49.150 [4]
FX average: 49.131 [4]
FX RQS: 49.240 [5]
FX regional score: 49.025 [5]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.900; UB - 9.925; BB - 9.900; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.725; UB - 9.850; BB - 9.800; FX - 9.725; TOT - 39.100 [4]
April 7, 2014
The Nationals Outlook
And just like that, the regionals are over. We leave 24 more teams in the dust and turn our attention to the big 12 that have managed to advance to compete for the national championship. Today, the rotation order and individual competitor placement was released.
Afternoon Session (starting event): Georgia (vault), Illinois (bye), Michigan (bars), Oklahoma (beam), LSU (bye), Stanford (floor)
Evening Session (starting event): Florida (vault), Alabama (bye), Utah (bars), UCLA (beam), Penn State (bye), Nebraska (floor)
Off the top, it doesn't look like a particularly bad rotation order for anyone. Beam and floor tend to be the most significant starting/ending events, but in the first session, I like Stanford starting on floor and ending on beam, and I always like Oklahoma starting on beam. They'll embrace that position. Is ending on beam trouble for LSU? We'll find out. Georgia got a gift in that rotation order after the regionals near-nightmare. They're like the France of this competition. (World Cup qualifications reference? Anyone?) In the second session, I think Nebraska and Penn State probably would have preferred not to start on floor and end on beam, since beam can be a worry for both. That's a harder rotation for Nebraska, but they got through the same rotation well at regionals, even though beam was just endured.
We have nice battles for the final qualifying spots in each semifinal. If we call Oklahoma and LSU the favorites in the first, then Stanford, Georgia, and Michigan will clashing for the final spot, and the same is the case in the second with Utah, UCLA, and Nebraska if we think of Florida and Alabama as the favorites. If things go as they've gone this season, the second semifinal could end up being a more straightforward affair for Florida, Alabama, and Utah, but I'm not quite ready to bet on that yet. P.S. you guys, is Stanford going to make Super Six?
Of those respective challenging trios, Georgia and UCLA will be ending the meets on the floor while the others will be on byes. Teams always like to finish competing, and score building will be a topic of discussion there. In the unnecessary fact department, Utah has started on bars and finished on vault twice so far this year and twice scored a 197.300.
I'll be doing the whole breakdown in the coming weeks, but I appreciate that this year we have two semifinals with relatively equivalent levels of competitiveness. Last year, one was essentially a slam dunk while the other was a game of thrones.
Afternoon Session (starting event): Georgia (vault), Illinois (bye), Michigan (bars), Oklahoma (beam), LSU (bye), Stanford (floor)
Evening Session (starting event): Florida (vault), Alabama (bye), Utah (bars), UCLA (beam), Penn State (bye), Nebraska (floor)
Off the top, it doesn't look like a particularly bad rotation order for anyone. Beam and floor tend to be the most significant starting/ending events, but in the first session, I like Stanford starting on floor and ending on beam, and I always like Oklahoma starting on beam. They'll embrace that position. Is ending on beam trouble for LSU? We'll find out. Georgia got a gift in that rotation order after the regionals near-nightmare. They're like the France of this competition. (World Cup qualifications reference? Anyone?) In the second session, I think Nebraska and Penn State probably would have preferred not to start on floor and end on beam, since beam can be a worry for both. That's a harder rotation for Nebraska, but they got through the same rotation well at regionals, even though beam was just endured.
We have nice battles for the final qualifying spots in each semifinal. If we call Oklahoma and LSU the favorites in the first, then Stanford, Georgia, and Michigan will clashing for the final spot, and the same is the case in the second with Utah, UCLA, and Nebraska if we think of Florida and Alabama as the favorites. If things go as they've gone this season, the second semifinal could end up being a more straightforward affair for Florida, Alabama, and Utah, but I'm not quite ready to bet on that yet. P.S. you guys, is Stanford going to make Super Six?
Of those respective challenging trios, Georgia and UCLA will be ending the meets on the floor while the others will be on byes. Teams always like to finish competing, and score building will be a topic of discussion there. In the unnecessary fact department, Utah has started on bars and finished on vault twice so far this year and twice scored a 197.300.
I'll be doing the whole breakdown in the coming weeks, but I appreciate that this year we have two semifinals with relatively equivalent levels of competitiveness. Last year, one was essentially a slam dunk while the other was a game of thrones.
April 19, 2013
National Semifinals Live Blog: Nothing If Not a Show
This season has seen some of the more preposterously scored meets in recent years, and through each of those 10s given out for non-sticks, the watchword has been that everything evens out at nationals. Everyone will be evaluated by the same judges on the same day. Noisy arguments about bias no longer stand.
Here is the scoring link for the first semifinal. And, of course, the live stream. It will go quickly. Make sure you have your best paying-attention eyes on. This slate won't be blank for long. (Also, have we already eliminated Illinois from contention? Hilarious.)
Our helpful Gymdogs have posted the complete lineups for the first semifinal.
It's very important for Georgia to have Couch back on both vault and floor. As long as she has had enough training time, she increases their consistency potential. It's much less likely they'll have a 9.7 that must be dropped on vault and floor now.
LSU has also switched Jordan and Ranzy on bars and put Mathis in for Lau on vault.
I still maintain that this first session should be straightforward, but I certainly wouldn't complain if it isn't.
Here is the scoring link for the first semifinal. And, of course, the live stream. It will go quickly. Make sure you have your best paying-attention eyes on. This slate won't be blank for long. (Also, have we already eliminated Illinois from contention? Hilarious.)
It's very important for Georgia to have Couch back on both vault and floor. As long as she has had enough training time, she increases their consistency potential. It's much less likely they'll have a 9.7 that must be dropped on vault and floor now.
LSU has also switched Jordan and Ranzy on bars and put Mathis in for Lau on vault.
I still maintain that this first session should be straightforward, but I certainly wouldn't complain if it isn't.
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