Routines We Won't See in 2015

With just two days to go until the season begins for realsies, I probably should be all previewy and forward looking. Nope. After the last month, I'm previewed out. Let's just get this thing started already.

Instead, before we get caught up in all our new obsessions with our various Elizabeth Prices and Peng Peng Lees and Alex McMurtrys and forget about all the routines from before they existed, I'm taking one last opportunity to watch and compile a few memorable routines from last year's seniors while I still remember that they happened.

After that, it's a clean slate and the new season is allowed to begin.

Katherine Grable - Floor


Lindsey Cheek - Beam


Alicia Asturias - Floor


Emily Wong - Floor


Shona Morgan - Beam


Sarie Morrison - Bars


Kim Jacob - Beam


Sarah DeMeo - Beam

Nationals Preview Part 4: Individual Times

Now that we've dispensed with the teams, let's take some time to enjoy the best individuals NCAA has to offer. The all-around competition doesn't get as much attention at nationals because the AA title is decided on Friday when the main focus is team qualification, but it's still always one of the most exciting parts of the event and worth at least several paragraphs of discussion.

I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.

For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.

Bridget Sloan - Florida

RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825

The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.

Rheagan Courville - LSU

RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750

Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.

Katherine Grable - Arkansas

RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725

Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.

#1 Florida Preview

What have you done for me lately? In April, Florida finally, finally broke through, climbing back from consecutive beam falls in Super Six to become the fifth team to win a national title with all the tears and confetti and celebrations that come with it, but that was eight months ago. The glory of 2013 is the past, the stuff of banners and trophy cases. Now, it's a new season, and the Gators are in the exact same position as every other team, a heap of potential trying to live up to its capabilities, starting at zero. 

The 2013 team was the most talented group of gymnasts Florida has ever put together at one time, and one of the biggest challenges Florida faces in 2014 is that the statement is still true. The 2013 Gators remain Florida's best, and the 2014 Gators will certainly and deeply feel the absences of Marissa King, Ashanee Dickerson, and Randy Stageberg in their lineups. The gymnastics will not be as big this year as last year, and there are places where we can expect a loss in scoring potential (places named vault and floor). However, as we learned at Super Six, Florida was a fall better than any other team in the country last season, so this team can afford to lose some big scores and still remain the atop the rankings and still be better than the rest of the teams. The margin does appear to be tighter than it was last year, though, which should make for a true postseason battle that doesn't need a fall in order to get exciting.

In making up for those lost routines, Florida will be getting some important routines back from returning gymnasts, with Alaina Johnson and Bridgey Caquatto both available in the all-around this year. The freshmen Silvia Colussi-Pelaez and Claire Boyce should also aid in this endeavor, and we can expect them to appear in a couple competition lineups and provide acceptable backup routines on every event. Let the event exploration begin. 

Vault: 


Of primary importance, we are all poorer for not having Marissa King's Tsuk 1.5 with us anymore. Civilization continues to crumble, and everything is just the worst. As a result, Florida's vault rotation will be 64% more drab this year, but on the bright side of life, the fact that King's vault was often woefully undervalued means that the Gators are not in as much of a hole scoring-wise as we might expect for a team losing such an excellent piece of gymnastics. Can they find a new 9.875-9.900 to slot in? Probably, or at least something close in the 9.850-9.875 area. It won't be nearly as impressive as King's vault, but the net scoring loss should be smallish, even if the net emotional loss is incalculable. Have I mentioned that I liked that vault? 

Uneven Bars and Vault Champions Showdowns

Courtney Kupets has overcome her second place finish in the floor champions showdown to put on a near-McCullough display of dominance in the beam showdown. Can she keep it up on bars?

I didn't plan these polls out particularly well, so I'm including both bars and vault in the same post because after today will come time to start thinking about preseason rankings and the coaches poll and team previews and all of those delicious morsels.

2013 NCAA Bars Champion – Alaina Johnson (I just wrote Alabama Johnson on the first try. Ugh, me.)


2012 NCAA Bars Champion – Kat Ding (routine begins at 17:30)

#3 Florida Preview

For the moment, let's all pretend that we live in a fantasy land where Florida is actually the #3 team in the country. Things will be more interesting that way. Then we can talk about how this plucky upstart took the nation by storm instead of talking about how the obviously most talented team acted like itself and achieved the #1 ranking. Regardless of how the season finishes, because no one can ever predict what kind of horrors and wonders will take place in Super Six, I do expect the Gators to be ranked #1 for the majority of the season. They are too grand and talented not to be.

In direct contrast to Oklahoma, where success will be cobbled together from every member of the group pitching in a little bit, Florida is a team of stars. While we will likely see one or two routines from outside the galaxy, the Gators in 2013 will be a small, familiar cast of seven all-arounders, each of whom would be the one star on another team: Marissa King, Ashanee Dickerson, Alaina Johnson, Mackenzie Caquatto, Kytra Hunter, Bridget Sloan, and Bridgette Caquatto. Put any combination of six of those seven gymnasts on any event and a 49.500 would not be a surprise. That's how good this team can be. A 198 (at least one) is attainable.

It's important, however, not to anoint too early. There are cracks. Small cracks, but cracks nonetheless. Say crack again. Crack. More than a few of these gymnasts have been felled by beam inconsistency before. We need only think back to 2011. More worrisome, though, is injury. This is largely a fragile bunch of elites, and it will be vital that the likes of Randy Stageberg, Kiersten Wang, and Rachel Spicer are ready to compete at the drop of a fibula. If these stars align properly, though, anything less than greatness would be a disappointment.

Vault:


The Gators don't have an event that can be considered anything near a weakness, but their success will be measured relative to their closest competitor, Alabama. If Alabama is getting regular 9.9s from every spot in the vault lineup as I expect, Florida needs to be able to match that (or come within a tenth that can be made up on bars). The opening 9.850s from Wang and Spicer that served the team well last postseason will make for comfortable backups but probably shouldn't be used in an ideal lineup. The goal should be a 49.500.

King always gets underscored with some nonsense 9.850, but her Tsuk 1.5 is made from clouds and liberty and hope for a better future, so I'd love to see her remain in the 5th spot out of spite, sending a little message that her vault is worthy of a 9.9+ every time. Hunter will surely anchor again, and I would not be surprised to see a 10 or two for her this season.

Sloan gets tremendous amplitude on her Yurchenko vaults (one of the main factors that stoked those perennial Amanar rumors), so the full should be quite easy for her and should become a regularly stuck vault for big scores. Dickerson and Johnson likewise will frequently reach 9.9 if they vault the way that they have the past couple of years. The sixth vaulter could very easily be Wang or Spicer without causing much problem for the scores, but Caquatto the Elder has higher scoring potential and can be that sixth 9.9 score. If there is any kind of concern about her leg health, however, I'd prefer to see her saved for bars and beam. It's not worth the risk.

#3 Florida Preview

Let's just cut to the chase.  Florida was the best team in the NCAA last year, and it wasn't close.  For all the discussion about Alabama and UCLA stepping up at the right time (which they did), Florida had no business losing the title.  That they didn't even make Super Six is an even greater and more interesting disappointment.

Much has been made about Florida peaking at the wrong time and showing their best gymnastics in January and February instead of March and April.  Rhonda has clearly taken this criticism to heart.  She pushed the team's training schedule back 4-6 weeks this year in order to put them in a better position come championships.  Whether this will work remains to be seen.  It will be fascinating to watch their January meets to see if they look like the January Florida we've become accustomed to or if they look more like early-season UCLA.

While poor performances in January may be alarming to the team (and it will be interesting to see how they might respond mentally to losses since they are used to starting the season with such strength), a bad result or two is likely the best thing that could happen to them.  The two major issues that knocked them out of championships in 2011 (struggles on the beam and an inability to produce top routines under pressure) both appear to stem from a lack of competition adversity during the season.

Because the beam problems didn't truly start to manifest themselves in an alarming way until SEC Championships, the team had little time to experiment with lineups or correct these issues.  Mahlich suddenly felt new pressure to hit, which made her very tentative and induced the falls, and the rest of the team was relatively unfamiliar with performing in a must-hit situation.  Worse beam outings early in the season would have made this scenario less foreign and would have told Rhonda exactly who could be relied upon to hit when necessary.  In addition, after the beam disaster at championships, the gymnasts tried too hard to stick their landings on vault and bars and ended up with worse scores because of it. Familiarity with performing after a poor rotation may have given the gymnasts a calmer demeanor and more ability to produce the gymnastics they had prepared.

For all of the issues we saw at the end of last season, Florida can still make the argument that they are the most talented team in the country.  In particular, returners Alaina Johnson, Mackenzie Caquatto, Ashanee Dickerson, and Marissa King will be relied upon on 3-4 events each and are all capable of massive scores.  Johnson would have been the undisputed top all-arounder in the country last year had it not been for lower scores on the beam, but she is capable of 9.950s on 3 events.  Caquatto proved herself a reliable 9.9 gymnast across the board, even coming off a long elite season in 2010.  She'll have to get healthy, stay healthy, and continue improving on her performance ability under pressure.  She's come a long way over the years from being the girl who could never hit beam, but she needs to keep getting more confident and not allow those 9.7s to creep in when she's nervous.  Dickerson is so powerful on vault and floor that a 9.9 has become an expectation.  She's scored well on beam in the past, but it can still be a struggle with leg form and consistency.  That 8.450 at regionals will haunt her beam performance for a while.  King is the national vault champion and is capable of the above floor performance.  Enough said.

Where Are the 9.9s?

Utah will hope Georgia Dabritz can bring in 9.9s on at least two events in 2012.

There is a common refrain, especially among coaches, that any team making it to the final session has a chance to take the national title.  Well . . . not quite.  While all the teams making it that far are talented, there is often a significant gap between the top contenders and the ones who should be pleased to get through the semifinals.  This gap can be measured reliably by the number of 9.9-quality routines.  The scores from Super Six in the last two years bear this out.

2011 Super Six - Routines scoring 9.9+
Alabama - 8
UCLA - 8
Oklahoma - 7
Michigan - 4
Nebraska - 2
Utah - 2

2010 Super Six - Routines scoring 9.9+
UCLA - 11
Oklahoma - 9
Alabama - 9
Stanford - 4
Florida - 4
Utah - 4

So what does this tell us?  (Other than making it painfully clear that 2010 was a much stronger year than 2011, which we already knew because we have eyes.)  It shows that even though the scores may appear similar, as we saw when Stanford and Florida finished within .250 of Oklahoma and Alabama in 2010, the disparity in quality of the top routines is often quite large and will dictate how the championships play out.
(As a side note, Florida managed six 9.9s in semifinals and seven 9.9s in regionals in 2011, which kept them afloat despite their beam performances, as opposed to Stanford, which did not advance past regionals due to suffering from severe 9.85-itis.)