#6 UCLA Preview

Roster
Brow, Matteah - Freshman
Bynum, Sadiqua - Senior - VT, FX
Cipra, Angi - Junior - VT, FX (possible BB)
DeJesus, Sophina - Senior - UB, BB, FX
Dennis, Rechelle - Sophomore - possible backup UB
Francis, Danusia - Senior - UB, BB, FX (we all saw that full in Glasgow so no more pretending you can't VT)
Gerber, Mikaela - Junior - BB, FX
Hall, Pua - Sophomore - FX (VT, please)
Honest, Janay - Sophomore - VT, UB, FX
Lee, Peng Peng - Junior - VT, UB, BB (FX, please)
Meraz, Sonya - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Metcalf, Melissa - Sophomore - UB
Mossett, Hallie - Junior - UB, BB, FX
Ohashi, Katelyn - Freshman
Preston, Madison - Freshman
Savvidou, Stella - Freshman
Shapiro, Nicki - Freshman
Toronjo, Macy - Freshman - (out with should injury)

Recent History
2015 - 11th
2014 - 7th
2013 - 4th
2012 - 3rd
2011 - 2nd
2010 - 1st

2016 Outlook
UCLA has suffered a gradual descent ever since the grand Anna Li coronation of 2010, a descent that picked up a little speed in the last year or so. 11th. The future is certainly bright for the Bruins, as the Ross/Kocian/Ohashi sparkleplosion moves closer and closer to reality, but for the present, the mission is figuring out how to improve on last season's unconvincing result, now without Sam Peszek to go up 6th and fix all the bad scores.

Even without Her Lady of 9.900s, this remains a talented roster that should be able to put together another cusp-of-Super-Six season. A successful result for UCLA would be built on using the back half of lineups to out-9.9 teams like Michigan, Georgia, and Utah, and given the capabilities of gymnasts like Ohashi, Lee, and Francis, that's quite possible. If all three are healthy and competing all their events at the end of the year (because apparently we live in a world of make believe), this can still be an extremely impressive team even before Kyla saves everyone just by looking at us. What's holding the Bruins back from being a favorite right now is the selection of viable supporting scores. Who else is there besides the big three? And can they legitimately bring enough 9.850-9.900 routines to make UCLA a full competitive team rather than just a couple appealing stars and the rest? Which brings me to...

Key Competitor(s)
Sophina DeJesus and Angi Cipra. Playtime is over. These two very talented upperclassmen have underachieved so far and must do more this year for the team to thrive. On their best events, and even some of their not-best events, DeJesus and Cipra need to be scoring near the same level as Francis and Lee to give the team a nationally competitive complement of scores. Without Peszek, there's nowhere for them to hide anymore. They must step up to fill that void and become scoring leaders, not just accessory pieces who occasionally stumble upon a 9.900, because if they don't who else will? DeJesus has always been capable of starring on beam and floor rather than just getting a 9.800 and a [scene missing]. Floor really should be her best event, and with that Sophina spitfire routine she has this year, the lineup needs her. Cipra is currently the strongest floor worker on the team, and the Bruins now depend on her too much to be able to tolerate those occasional falls and 9.7s from the last two seasons. She has to go 9.9+, and do it every time, along with serious contributions on vault and ideally beam (her beam talent is greater than her no-routines-ever career would suggest).

We can probably put Hallie Mossett in this category as well. This trio needs to have a "by your powers combined" Captain Planet moment to unite and create that final magnificent star gymnast the team needs in order to challenge the best schools.

Vault


I count enough vaulters to form an acceptable lineup, but the real worry is going to be difficulty. Most top teams have a few vaulters who did a 1.5 in JO/elite and might be able to bring it back, but the large majority of UCLA vaulters from last season appear maxed out at their current amount of yurchenko twisting. The Bruin vault approach may end up being to squeeze all possible tenths out of fulls rather than going for a bunch of 10.0 SVs. Or, is it vault-teaching time again? Who wants to learn an Omelianchik? The answer should be everybody because it's the best.

The options returning from last year's lineup are predominately early lineup/backup vaults, with Cipra capable of a relatively solid-scoring full as long as the landing works out, Meraz and Honest both bringing perfectly OK 9.750-9.800 fulls, Bynum occasionally scoring well for her y1/2 (but also occasionally landing short and getting a 9.7), and Peng vaulting a very beautiful full when she's able. Peng's vault is gorgeous, but because of her injury history of "all of them, all the time," it's not the kind of vault a lineup can rely on. This returning group looks extremely 49.1 right now, so the new ones are going to have to bring it. At least a little. A little bringing. I've been wary about expecting too much from Ohashi on vault and floor just because the high priestess must be protected at all costs, but this lineup needs her. She must vault, as must Preston. Vault was usually Preston's best event in JO, with a high and very clean full, so if she has sufficiently recovered from her 2015 bout with Mary Lee Leg, she'll be an integral piece.

Let's also take a moment to address the Pua Hall situation. Hall was a vault recruit, intended to shore up this lineup in the wake of the "we're forcing Niki Tom to vault because there's literally nothing else to do" years. Hall was very strong in JO and has an all-important 1.5 but vaulted a grand total of never last season. That has to change this year. This vaulting squad is too thin to have a 1.5 twiddling her thumbs. If Hall/Preston/Ohashi are actually able to boost the depth, they'll be looking closer to the 49.250-49.300 territory than the dreaded 49.1s.

Bars


Welp, Peng already has a thumb injury, so let's just cancel bars. The preseason thumb injury strikes a major blow to this lineup because how much bars training is Peng going to be able to do? And when? The team really relies on her here not just to be the best routine but to get those 9.950s to cancel out some early 9.800s. When available, she makes bars an asset event for the Bruins.

#4 UCLA Preview

UCLA had to be disappointed with finishing 4th at a home Championship last year, especially when the preseason outlook was so promising, but considering the injury trials presented to them throughout the season, managing a 4th place finish was a solid result. Without Peszek, without Lee, without Larson, the Bruins got as much as they could from the lineup they had, squeezing out every last drop of depth they could muster. They just didn't have enough big routines to contend for a win. 

Expect the 2014 team to be nearly unrecognizable from the group we saw last season. Whereas for most teams we're talking about filling one or two holes per event, UCLA has to reconstruct a full half of its lineup. Challengingly, it's not just about finding routines that can work in competition, it's about finding the 9.9s to fill the colossal absence of Vanessa Zamarripa. That's why Sam Peszek's return is so vital. She's the one who can step into those lineup spots and get the 9.9s on every event to help this team keep pace with last season. Especially without the Peng, it will fall to Peszek to be the star every week. 

UCLA is bringing in a hearty freshman class with Jennifer Pinches, Hallie Mossett, Angi Cipra, and Mikaela Gerber, but because there are so many openings in these lineups and because UCLA is perpetually recovering from sixty-five injuries, don't expect the depth problems we saw last year on events like vault to dissipate. It's going to be one of those UCLA journey seasons again, with a lot of life lessons, equal parts beautiful and frustrating. 

Vault:


Vault was always going to be strange this year without Zamarripa. She is the team's identity on this event, so vault rotations are going to feel incomplete or incorrect for a while without her Yurchenko full because we are so used to that one spectacular piece of gymnastics finishing off the rotation and, especially last year, saving an adequate score. From the 2013 lineup, the Bruins are returning Olivia Courtney, a tube of chapstick, and a piece of damp construction paper. There's little to go on. This is where the depth and injury concerns were most apparent last season, and the team may not exactly be flush with vault choices again in 2014. For other teams, we're talking about 8 and 9 solid options and scores in the 49.4s and 49.5s, but for UCLA it's a little bit of, who's on this team now? And does she vault?

#2 UCLA Preview

UCLA is a tough one this year. Peszek was a rock, Hopfner-Hibbs was a beam and floor star, Gerber was a beauty on the weaker events, and Frattone was a dominant vaulter. Losing those eleven routines (which include seven of the twelve back-half routines from last season) is almost impossible to endure while maintaining the same quality. The Bruins will have a difficult road to repeat the accomplishments of the last three years, but a strong class of freshman specialists and the lure of unfulfilled potential mean that it is still a possibility.

The Bruins are less secure in success than many of the other top teams because any projected triumph is going to be based on what athletes will need to do rather than what they have already proven they can do. It's not about continuing on the same worn path; it's about finding a new one full of terrible, trite metaphors about tangled branches and overgrown cottages and a single rose. It is imperative that Mattie Larson become an all-around threat who can contribute in the 4th and 5th positions of every rotation. She needs to be the plucky sidekick stenographer to Vanessa Zamarripa's pants-wearing, cigarette holder-clutching leading lady. A repeat of the 2012 performance will see the team suffer in a way it didn't last year.

Danusia Francis seems to be a perfect fit for this team, and she will be expected to star on beam and contribute on floor right away, which will lessen the blow of the Hopfner-Hibbs/Peszek losses. Sophina DeJesus is a wonderful dancer, but the jury is out on commendations more emphatic than that. Asi Peko had success as a junior elite and a Level 10, but it's been a while, and her level is still a mystery.

Most of all, though, the freshman class is about Peng Peng Lee, and if she were healthy, it would be a lot easier to be emphatic about this team. It's a real shame that Lee and Zamarripa will never get to compete the AA together, though I suppose the idea is that Lee becomes the new Zamarripa. She can be that good. There was some discussion about whether Lee would be pushed to come back for the end of the year, but the injury to Peszek all but guarantees that as long as her health allows it, Lee will be back on bars and beam for the postseason.

Looking through these potential lineups, there is no guarantee against this team becoming a catastrophe. We have no mental giants in Westwood. But if if if everyone, Mattie, does what she is capable of doing, Mattie, this team could be a sight to see. 

Vault:


The Bruins had a tremendous punch at the end of this lineup last year that helped them easily keep pace with the massive scores posted by Alabama and Florida. They've lost two significant cogs in Frattone and Peszek, but Olivia Courtney should still be vaulting for 9.9s every week, and Zamarripa is Zamarripa. Those 5th and 6th routines will help the event from being a problem, even if they are receiving just supporting 9.850s from the rest of the team (though I think they'll get a bit more than that).

At the Meet the Bruins event, Zamarripa showed the RO 1/2 on, layout 1/2 instead of the Yurchenko full, and I'm of multiple minds about her actually competing it. On the one hand, I'm in favor of the RO 1/2 because otherwise this will lineup will be a snoozer with six Yfulls, and we'll all die of boredom. On the other hand, without Frattone and Peszek, the Bruins needs to squeeze every possible tenth out of this lineup, and the Yfull is a proven 10 with fewer opportunities for deductions. The boring path may be the smarter one.  

I have to assume that Mattie Larson struggled on vault in training at the end of last season because otherwise it was ludicrous to compete Kaelie Baer's 9.800 over Larson's 9.875. While the DTY was always a struggle for Larson as an elite, she is a strong vaulter with commendable amplitude, and it will be unacceptable for her miss the lineup or compete for 9.825s. She needs to be vaulting fourth for 9.9s.

As for the rest of the lineup, there will be no shortage of vaults in the low-mid 9.8 range from which to choose (Baer, Sawa, Wong, De La Torre, McDonald), but competing more than one of those vaults is going to help the team right to a 49.350. Fine, but already allowing a deficit to Alabama and Florida. Sawa has a bit more potential to stick for a higher score, so I expect to see some of her. Wong can be graceful but lacks distance and a solid landing. A few of these vaulters will need to prove worthy of more than they have in the past, especially away from Pauley.  

Asi Peko is the big question mark here. She showed promise on vault sixteen decades ago, and she can be a major boost to the lineup if she's the same gymnast that she was then. The other healthy freshmen are unlikely to factor here. Danusia Francis has a whippy little British Yurchenko with no lift, and Sophina DeJesus shouldn't be allowed to look at the vaulting table.