#12 Oregon State Preview

Let the previews BEGIN! On the roster, I've noted which events the gymnasts normally compete for a quick glance at possible lineup choices.

Roster
Aufiero, Erika - Senior - VT, UB (capable of adding BB, maybe FX)
Colussi-Pelaez, Mariana - Freshman
Colussi-Pelaez, Silvia - Junior - UB, BB
Dessaints, Dani - Sophomore - VT, UB
Gardiner, Maddie - Junior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Jacobsen, Mary - Freshman 
Jimenez, Megan - Junior - VT, FX
Khamedoost, Shireen - Sophomore - UB
McMillan, Kaytianna - Junior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Perez, Risa - Senior - BB, FX (possible VT, did UB at ASU)
Radermacher, Jamie - Senior - FX
Ricci, Taylor - Junior - VT, FX
Singley, McKenna - Freshman
Yu, Elizabeth - Freshman 

Recent History
2015 - 12th
2014 - 13th
2013 - 16th
2012 - 12th
2011 - 8th
2010 - 8th

2016 Outlook
Oregon State crossed a significant hurdle last season by returning to nationals at a point when underperforming at important meets was becoming an unfortunate trend. This season, Oregon State should find itself in a similar position, squarely in the fight for a spot at nationals but with nothing guaranteed. It'll be another on-the-cusp season. Because of that, quite a bit will depend on other teams, particularly how well the likes Illinois and Arkansas end up performing, but Oregon State should be a reasonably 196.6 team this year once everything falls into place. The Beavs haven't lost too, too many crucial scores from last season, especially because Tang wasn't scoring at consistently the same level post-injury. Aside from Tang's beam and floor and Keeker's suddenly 9.9 vault, which will absolutely be missed, OSU lost a handful of 9.825s that should be easily replaceable with this roster.

Key Competitor 
Kaytianna McMillan. McMillian suffered a wild knee catastrophe on vault at regionals last year, rendering her unavailable for nationals (and walking) and effectively dashing any hope the team had for stirring up some trouble among the big girls. At this point, she's still in the comeback process, but having her contributing serious routines by the end of the season is a must for Oregon State. If it's just Maddie Gardiner with spot greatness from Aufiero and Perez, this will not be a particularly successful season. Those scores alone do not amount to enough to challenge. They need one more 9.9 leader across multiple events, and it looks like it needs to be McMillan. If she joins the other big contributors and they're all going strong by the end of the season, picking the Beavs to make it back to nationals becomes a much more comfortable prospect.

Vault


Vault has not been a traditional strength for Oregon State, usually lacking the power and difficulty of the top teams and forcing the Beavs to hang out closer to the 49.2s than teams cracking the top 10 should be. That concern could be exacerbated this year with the new start values, since Oregon State does look to be vaulting primarily fulls. If they're not pristine fulls, the gap widens. The newbie Mary Jacobsen may then be a serious asset because word on the street from the cool kids (you know how people on the street corner are always talking about vault lineups?) is that Jacobsen will be vaulting a Tsuk full, which still has a 10.0 SV. McMillan also possesses great power and did a 1.5 in JO, but after multiple years of serious leg traumas, it's more important just to get her back vaulting something at some point rather than pushing the difficulty.

Other fulls from Aufiero and Gardiner will certainly return to the lineup and usually (usually) feature comfortable, minimal-deduction landings. Both have gone 9.900 for those vaults, so while that may translate down to 9.850 this year, they will still be valuable. Ideally, McMillan, Aufiero, Gardiner, and Jacobsen will be the vaulting core. When those four are together, expect competitive scores and something that can break out of the 49.2 doldrums. When the second-tier vaulters (Jimenez, Dessaints, Ricci, perhaps Singley) have to jump in and contribute significant routines, that total is probably dropping down toward the 49.1s since they're more likely to hang around 9.800. That puts quite a bit of pressure on the other events to keep the team competitive.

Bars


For my money, Erika Aufiero's bars routine is the most important performance on the team this year.  When she sticks that DLO, it's pretty much a guaranteed 9.900 (unless she arches a handstand like in the video above—come on, youtube!). On a roster without any other true bars sorceresses, hers will be an essential weekly score because if she doesn't get it, who else will? There are other definite lineup returners like Gardiner, SCP, and McMillan, all of whom are solid enough on bars, but they're solid for 9.825s, not 9.9+s. They have supporting routines rather than lineup-defining routines and wouldn't be enough to protect the team against those 9.7s that cropped up too often last season.