It occurs to me I never wrapped up my thoughts on the national championship, so here are just a few behind-schedule cognitive tangles about that competition before we move on to remembering that there are still two more national team camps before the WC squad is named and two more months until the actual competition.
On day 2 of nationals for the women, the world righted itself, with most of the competitors remembering that hitting routines is a thing you should probably do. It also reinforced why prospective team selection is such a fun game. There are a TON of realistic permutations for Worlds teams this year, all of which will end up scoring very similarly to one another, and some of which belie visual impressions from the competition. But which one do you choose?
Take Kyla, for example. Expectations are a funny thing. Kyla has been a top-2 AAer for the US this whole quad, majoring in not sucking at bars. So when she suddenly has a nasty Nationals and looks weak on bars, the sky is falling. That was certainly the attitude of our broadcast team. Al was even asking whether Kyla would make the selection camp. (Tim was like, "Derp. Obvi she's making the selection camp.") Yes correct, Tim.
But to me, and contrary to the overall tone of things, Kyla helped her chances to make the team with her performance on day 2 of nationals. At least, she made an argument for including her in the squad that she didn't make on day 1. No, bars is not happening. But at this moment, it's not really about bars for her. That's the big change in expectations we have to make. With her current routine composition, Kyla isn't making the team to do bars in TF even if she shaves several inches off her height and lands a dismount. (If she returns to her planned 6.3 and can hit by selection camp, it's a different story, but that's a lot to do.) Right now, it's about beam. That's where she can be top three. And she stepped up like hell there and did her job on day 2.
In fact, because she did her job (scoring several tenths ahead of a connection-free Aly Raisman and a strong Alyssa Baumann, and a point ahead of a wobbly Gabby Douglas), suddenly a team with Kyla on it makes a little sense now and outscores many of the other permutations. At least on the day. Playing the same game I did for day 1 scores, here's the way some possible teams stack up according exclusively to their day 2 scores.
Showing posts with label Kyla Ross. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kyla Ross. Show all posts
August 23, 2015
August 14, 2015
Splatfest 2015
I like to consider myself a connoisseur of splatfests. It is my calling. And the first day of women's competition at the national championships last night was a truly lovely vintage. It wasn't quite 2000 Trials level (that's an unrealistic standard to which to hold other competitions—we can't all be 2000 Trials), but Aly Raisman did fall on a split jump, so it was pretty competitive. During the meet, I may or may not have started singing "Car Wash" but with "splatfest" instead of "car wash."
Now, except for Maggie Nichols continuing to be a Solid Sandy and confirming her place in the new world order, and Simone Biles just casually throwing out the best E score of all time (have we confirmed that? I think it is, beating Nastia's beam 9.800 at 2008 Pacific Rims, but has anyone scoured the records to make sure?), this meet will probably end up counting as an incomplete. For the rest of you, we'll pretend it never happened and just start over tomorrow.
But, what I love about this splatfest most of all (other than how PISSSSSSED Aly and Simone looked the whole time—heartwarming) is that it throws some serious doubt onto that pre-summer presumptive team of Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Key, Ross. Primarily because of bars. (And also maybe because of Alyssa Baumann...pleeeeeassse?)
There are still a million things that can change between now and the selection camp. Kupets will make a comeback. The Worlds team will be reduced to 2 and a half members (2 AAers and then whatever is left of Madison Kocian's legs after this weekend). But, as we stand right now, that presumptive team has some pretty large cracks in it. Let's talk about that to make this summer of selection a lot more interesting than it has been so far. At least until tomorrow, when everything will change again. I fully own the flippant and mercurial attitude I bring to team selection.
How do you solve a problem like Kyla? That's not really the Sound of Music reference I would have expected to need to use about Kyla. She's supposed to be the Edelweiss of USA Gymnastics. But her bars are turning into an issue. Partly because of the falling (this routine doesn't make me feel warm and safe like a sweater the way her 2012 routine did), but mostly because of the potential score even when she does hit. Give her back a point for the fall yesterday, and she's still in 7th on bars, well behind several of the bars specialists contending for a spot. Her difficulty is down to 6.0 from the more competitive 6.3 she was planning, and that's not a good sign. She needs a selection camp step-up in that regard.
July 22, 2015
Pre-Classic: A Land of Ignorance
Pre-Classic is my favorite part of the elite season because it's the silliest. We're all so damn confident about how things are going to go this season despite having seen precisely zero gymnastics from the major and most of the minor contenders. Remember your feelings about Ashton Locklear precisely 365 days ago? Because they were a tumbleweed made of cricket sound effects.
That's what makes Classic exciting. At this moment, we know nothing, but by the end of podium training, we'll basically be set and have a good idea of what we'll see this year. To help fill in the possible picture of who might go to Glasgow to be the trusted attendants in Queen Simone's Royal Court, here are a few ramblings about what I'll be watching out for at Classic because I realize I haven't posted anything that isn't about Al Trautwig in a long time.
Amanar Watch 2015: Beyond Biles, Fact or Fiction
Eeeeeeeverybody thinks she has an Amanar this year. We'll see. We've been down this road before. People often like to show up to Classic going, "Sup bitches, I gots me an Amanar," and then it isn't so much with the great. See Gowey 2014, Raisman 2010. Still, enough people have past Amanars, current Amanars, possible Amanars, Un-anars, or fantasies about having Amanars that the US should be expecting to cobble together at least three 6.3+ vaults for Worlds. There's obviously Biles, Dowell has had a 2.5 for years now and needs it, we have Skinner with her social experiment, we know about Raisman and Douglas's past vaults, Nichols had a Campanar that time, Key has been training one since she was a fetus (You guys! She's training a Wombanar in there! My aunt's cousin saw it!), Gowey had that one for a hot second last year but didn't vault at Pan Ams because of yet another in her Pride Parade of injuries. Right now, there are a lot of possibilities, but we need some facts.
Of this group, a hit 2.5 will probably be the most important for Maggie Nichols. She has elevated herself out of you're-here-too, Paul Ruggeri, alternating-my-ass-off territory almost solely on the basis of having a Campanar, but if she could legitimately score as a top-three vaulter this summer in competition, that would be a huge boost for her team hopes. She needs to prove that she's not only a strong AAer, but convincingly top 3 at least somewhere and probably two-wheres. It's a big competition for Nichols. Conversely, Skinner will be rooting for as few Amanars as possible. The more people with competitive vaults, the less necessary her vault becomes, and she doesn't have as many competitive events to work with in the first place.
Bring Out Your Bars Specialists
Last year, Locklear and Kocian made the team to ensure that the US was a little less horrifying on bars, and once again on a team of six, the opportunity can present itself for bars specialist to work her way onto the team and save the day. Though the standard is tougher this year. With Ross continuing to be Ross and Biles, Key, Nichols, and a whole host of other people showing bars D-scores in the low 6s with high-14 totals (6.1 is the new 5.8), anyone hoping to make the team specifically because of bars will need to show significantly higher scoring potential than that. Possible bars specialists need to be scoring clearly into the 15s, otherwise there will be people already on the team for other events who can do the job just as well. So I'm keeping an eye on those scores. That's why it will be tough for someone like Gowey. She mashed together an upgraded routine for this year (with more upgrade potential still) but maxed out at the 14.7s at Pan Ams. Biles can get that. Desch is in a similar boat. She upgraded like crazy this year to put together some really solid routines, but she's not in top-three contention on these events.
Douglas will be interesting to watch with regard to the quest for bars 15s. Because she's Gabby Douglas, she automatically seems like the default bars worker based on her past accomplishments. But, her Jesolo bars routine was very work-in progress. She'll need to show some development since then to solidify any kind of status on this event. Comparing her score to the incumbent bars workers, the injury-returning Locklear and Kocian, will be telling, though certainly Douglas's abilities on other events can help her cause.
The crop is deeper this year than it was last year, so there probably isn't going to be room for a whole gang of bars specialists again. We're going to see the likes of Locklear, Kocian, and Dowell all trying to out-bars each other for what might not even be one spot. (Biles, Ross, Raisman, Key, Douglas, Nichols, Skinner is a fairly realistic, serious-scoring group of seven to choose from, and it includes none of them. Although, that team may be slightly questionable on bars and could use a boost if someone earns it.) We know Dowell's top routine has the difficulty edge over everyone, but she'll have to bring that routine, along with a whole bushel of consistency and a clear scoring edge over the recent world team members in order to overcome the general Martha-thumbs-down feeling that has pervaded her elite career.
Who Is Good At Floor?
Simone is. Aly Raisman is. Aly has spent the last 5 years making teams because of beam and floor, so to solidify her spot on the prospective team, she's going to need to reinforce her position on floor and emerge as the clear #2 behind Biles and her 19.500. She has the difficulty to do it already back in her routine and looked on track at Jesolo. She's kind of the Olympic champion, you know. The US has a formidable 1-2 punch with Biles and Raisman on floor, but the third floor worker will be an interesting topic. Key's scores render her a very strong possiblity, and of course there's Skinner as well. As on vault, Skinner will need to use Classic to prove that she's still top three, with Raisman coming in this year to challenge her status a little bit more. Skinner vs. Key on floor should be a fun one. Skinner needs to win that to make her argument. Does someone else pop into possible 15 territory?
These are the questions I want answered. Amanars? How relevant and necessary are the bars specialists? Gabby's still Gabby, right? And who's third on floor? I expect all the competitors to do their best to answer them in a timely and clear fashion. As for beam, my impression right now is that it won't be decisive in team selection. With Biles, Ross, Raisman, Douglas, and Key all seeming like realistic beam options (to varying degrees) who can make the team for other events as well, selection may come down to choosing the team for the other three events and then just using the best beamers from that group, who will probably be the best beamers in the country anyway. It makes it very tough for Baumann, though, since beam is kind of her thing, but she doesn't have the other asset events.
Also, Sabrina Vega is a person again. So that will be interesting.
That's what makes Classic exciting. At this moment, we know nothing, but by the end of podium training, we'll basically be set and have a good idea of what we'll see this year. To help fill in the possible picture of who might go to Glasgow to be the trusted attendants in Queen Simone's Royal Court, here are a few ramblings about what I'll be watching out for at Classic because I realize I haven't posted anything that isn't about Al Trautwig in a long time.
Amanar Watch 2015: Beyond Biles, Fact or Fiction
Eeeeeeeverybody thinks she has an Amanar this year. We'll see. We've been down this road before. People often like to show up to Classic going, "Sup bitches, I gots me an Amanar," and then it isn't so much with the great. See Gowey 2014, Raisman 2010. Still, enough people have past Amanars, current Amanars, possible Amanars, Un-anars, or fantasies about having Amanars that the US should be expecting to cobble together at least three 6.3+ vaults for Worlds. There's obviously Biles, Dowell has had a 2.5 for years now and needs it, we have Skinner with her social experiment, we know about Raisman and Douglas's past vaults, Nichols had a Campanar that time, Key has been training one since she was a fetus (You guys! She's training a Wombanar in there! My aunt's cousin saw it!), Gowey had that one for a hot second last year but didn't vault at Pan Ams because of yet another in her Pride Parade of injuries. Right now, there are a lot of possibilities, but we need some facts.
Of this group, a hit 2.5 will probably be the most important for Maggie Nichols. She has elevated herself out of you're-here-too, Paul Ruggeri, alternating-my-ass-off territory almost solely on the basis of having a Campanar, but if she could legitimately score as a top-three vaulter this summer in competition, that would be a huge boost for her team hopes. She needs to prove that she's not only a strong AAer, but convincingly top 3 at least somewhere and probably two-wheres. It's a big competition for Nichols. Conversely, Skinner will be rooting for as few Amanars as possible. The more people with competitive vaults, the less necessary her vault becomes, and she doesn't have as many competitive events to work with in the first place.
Bring Out Your Bars Specialists
Last year, Locklear and Kocian made the team to ensure that the US was a little less horrifying on bars, and once again on a team of six, the opportunity can present itself for bars specialist to work her way onto the team and save the day. Though the standard is tougher this year. With Ross continuing to be Ross and Biles, Key, Nichols, and a whole host of other people showing bars D-scores in the low 6s with high-14 totals (6.1 is the new 5.8), anyone hoping to make the team specifically because of bars will need to show significantly higher scoring potential than that. Possible bars specialists need to be scoring clearly into the 15s, otherwise there will be people already on the team for other events who can do the job just as well. So I'm keeping an eye on those scores. That's why it will be tough for someone like Gowey. She mashed together an upgraded routine for this year (with more upgrade potential still) but maxed out at the 14.7s at Pan Ams. Biles can get that. Desch is in a similar boat. She upgraded like crazy this year to put together some really solid routines, but she's not in top-three contention on these events.
Douglas will be interesting to watch with regard to the quest for bars 15s. Because she's Gabby Douglas, she automatically seems like the default bars worker based on her past accomplishments. But, her Jesolo bars routine was very work-in progress. She'll need to show some development since then to solidify any kind of status on this event. Comparing her score to the incumbent bars workers, the injury-returning Locklear and Kocian, will be telling, though certainly Douglas's abilities on other events can help her cause.
The crop is deeper this year than it was last year, so there probably isn't going to be room for a whole gang of bars specialists again. We're going to see the likes of Locklear, Kocian, and Dowell all trying to out-bars each other for what might not even be one spot. (Biles, Ross, Raisman, Key, Douglas, Nichols, Skinner is a fairly realistic, serious-scoring group of seven to choose from, and it includes none of them. Although, that team may be slightly questionable on bars and could use a boost if someone earns it.) We know Dowell's top routine has the difficulty edge over everyone, but she'll have to bring that routine, along with a whole bushel of consistency and a clear scoring edge over the recent world team members in order to overcome the general Martha-thumbs-down feeling that has pervaded her elite career.
Who Is Good At Floor?
Simone is. Aly Raisman is. Aly has spent the last 5 years making teams because of beam and floor, so to solidify her spot on the prospective team, she's going to need to reinforce her position on floor and emerge as the clear #2 behind Biles and her 19.500. She has the difficulty to do it already back in her routine and looked on track at Jesolo. She's kind of the Olympic champion, you know. The US has a formidable 1-2 punch with Biles and Raisman on floor, but the third floor worker will be an interesting topic. Key's scores render her a very strong possiblity, and of course there's Skinner as well. As on vault, Skinner will need to use Classic to prove that she's still top three, with Raisman coming in this year to challenge her status a little bit more. Skinner vs. Key on floor should be a fun one. Skinner needs to win that to make her argument. Does someone else pop into possible 15 territory?
These are the questions I want answered. Amanars? How relevant and necessary are the bars specialists? Gabby's still Gabby, right? And who's third on floor? I expect all the competitors to do their best to answer them in a timely and clear fashion. As for beam, my impression right now is that it won't be decisive in team selection. With Biles, Ross, Raisman, Douglas, and Key all seeming like realistic beam options (to varying degrees) who can make the team for other events as well, selection may come down to choosing the team for the other three events and then just using the best beamers from that group, who will probably be the best beamers in the country anyway. It makes it very tough for Baumann, though, since beam is kind of her thing, but she doesn't have the other asset events.
Also, Sabrina Vega is a person again. So that will be interesting.
February 23, 2015
Week 7 Rankings and RQS Update
The big news of the week came in the land of commitments with Kyla Ross announcing that she is going to UCLA. This is an upset. We so rarely get upsets. Until very recently, all we had heard for years was "Stanford, Stanford, Stanford, Stanford." Looks like Miss Val went to work. Next mission: Let's work on not throwing up all those sloppy 9.6s on bars.
UCLA is shaping up to have something on the verge of a post-2000 class after the 2016 Olympics. There will be a couple years where Biles, Ross, Ohashi, Dennis, and Kocian will all be on the team at the same time (and in 2017, we could see a beam lineup with Peng, Ross, Biles, and Ohashi all together, stop thinking about it, stop thinking about it, stop jinxing it). The judges will be exploding in a shower of confetti over how many 10s they want to give them. Time to start getting everyone fitted for bubble-wrap body suits. No UCLA injury parades, please.
In actual competition this week, Utah returned to its home ways, winning the weekend with a 198.050, the fourth-best score in team history, featuring another 10 on bars for Georgia Dabritz. It's funny that bars has turned out to be Dabritz's 10 event, because I still sort of think it's her third-best event. I prefer watching her on vault and floor, though the comaneci makes it so much better. A couple other routines I saw this weekend could realistically have received 10s and I only would have complained about it a medium amount, notably both Kayla Williams and Alex McMurtry on vault, especially compared to the other scores given out at those meets.
Interestingly, the scores are going very high, especially in the big-name meets with all kinds of 9.950s flying out of every orifice. But at the same time, the 10 pace has fallen off a little bit, as though there's some timidity about giving out ALL THE 10s creeping in, but not about giving everyone 9.950s.
And now to the rankings.
Week 7 Rankings - (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.640
Week 7: 197.375
Week 7 leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman, Capps 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.900; FX - Scaman 9.950
RQS
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.700
Road Score 3: 197.650
Road/Home Score 1: 197.850
Road/Home Score 2: 197.625
Road/Home Score 3: 197.375
Oklahoma just escaped Michigan over the weekend. Just. That would have been a bit of a wake-up call, wouldn't it? Lower-than-expected scores on both beam and floor accounted for Oklahoma spending a second straight week in the lower half of the 197s, after it seemed like they would never deign to score under a 197.500 given the early-season performances. 197.3 is what peasants score. Floor hasn't been a problem for most of the year (Kara Lovan had a 9.450 disaster this time but is pretty much always a clean little broomstick of twisting for 9.900), but once again beam was the lowest-scoring event. It will be fine, and will be beautiful, but it's definitely true that they have not been able to replace the Spears and Mooring routines with as reliable work.
In spite of the big scores from LSU and Utah over the weekend, Oklahoma's RQS lead is still quite comfortable. It should remain comfortable in the near future given the road score advantage they maintain over all the other teams, as long as they can get rid of this 197.3 with a juicy 197.800 soon.
2. LSU – 197.335
Week 7: 197.950
Week 7 leaders: AA - Courville 39.625; VT - Courville, Ewing 9.900; UB - Courville 9.950; BB - Jordan 9.925; FX - Hall 9.975
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 196.600
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.950
Road/Home Score 3: 197.350
This was a big home win over Florida. Very big. While LSU has been firmly in the title conversation since before the season started, they've been very clearly the third team in the hierarchy of the three big contenders. Victories like this (I struggle to call it an upset since they were at home, even though it was a ranking and reputation upset) help even the outlook. LSU hit a very composed and consistent meet and was the stronger team, but this was not their best gymnastics. Beam was more nervy than it has been in other meets, and the vault landings can be much more controlled. And Courville's floor still has some random issue almost every time. Still, LSU confirmed that there is no real quality-of-gymnastics gap between them and the other title contenders. They are capable of beating a hit meet from any other team. They won't necessarily need to hope for errors once Nationals come around.
The Tigers still trail Oklahoma by three tenths in the RQS battle, but they are going to Alabama next weekend with a golden chance to get rid of that mid-196 road score and pick up at least a couple tenths, which would put the pressure on the Sooners. They can't catch Oklahoma yet, but they can make it competitive.
Of note, Ashleigh Gnat had verging on the best performances I've seen from her on all of her events.
UCLA is shaping up to have something on the verge of a post-2000 class after the 2016 Olympics. There will be a couple years where Biles, Ross, Ohashi, Dennis, and Kocian will all be on the team at the same time (and in 2017, we could see a beam lineup with Peng, Ross, Biles, and Ohashi all together, stop thinking about it, stop thinking about it, stop jinxing it). The judges will be exploding in a shower of confetti over how many 10s they want to give them. Time to start getting everyone fitted for bubble-wrap body suits. No UCLA injury parades, please.
In actual competition this week, Utah returned to its home ways, winning the weekend with a 198.050, the fourth-best score in team history, featuring another 10 on bars for Georgia Dabritz. It's funny that bars has turned out to be Dabritz's 10 event, because I still sort of think it's her third-best event. I prefer watching her on vault and floor, though the comaneci makes it so much better. A couple other routines I saw this weekend could realistically have received 10s and I only would have complained about it a medium amount, notably both Kayla Williams and Alex McMurtry on vault, especially compared to the other scores given out at those meets.
Interestingly, the scores are going very high, especially in the big-name meets with all kinds of 9.950s flying out of every orifice. But at the same time, the 10 pace has fallen off a little bit, as though there's some timidity about giving out ALL THE 10s creeping in, but not about giving everyone 9.950s.
And now to the rankings.
Week 7 Rankings - (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.640
Week 7: 197.375
Week 7 leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman, Capps 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.900; FX - Scaman 9.950
RQS
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.700
Road Score 3: 197.650
Road/Home Score 1: 197.850
Road/Home Score 2: 197.625
Road/Home Score 3: 197.375
Oklahoma just escaped Michigan over the weekend. Just. That would have been a bit of a wake-up call, wouldn't it? Lower-than-expected scores on both beam and floor accounted for Oklahoma spending a second straight week in the lower half of the 197s, after it seemed like they would never deign to score under a 197.500 given the early-season performances. 197.3 is what peasants score. Floor hasn't been a problem for most of the year (Kara Lovan had a 9.450 disaster this time but is pretty much always a clean little broomstick of twisting for 9.900), but once again beam was the lowest-scoring event. It will be fine, and will be beautiful, but it's definitely true that they have not been able to replace the Spears and Mooring routines with as reliable work.
In spite of the big scores from LSU and Utah over the weekend, Oklahoma's RQS lead is still quite comfortable. It should remain comfortable in the near future given the road score advantage they maintain over all the other teams, as long as they can get rid of this 197.3 with a juicy 197.800 soon.
2. LSU – 197.335
Week 7: 197.950
Week 7 leaders: AA - Courville 39.625; VT - Courville, Ewing 9.900; UB - Courville 9.950; BB - Jordan 9.925; FX - Hall 9.975
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 196.600
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.950
Road/Home Score 3: 197.350
This was a big home win over Florida. Very big. While LSU has been firmly in the title conversation since before the season started, they've been very clearly the third team in the hierarchy of the three big contenders. Victories like this (I struggle to call it an upset since they were at home, even though it was a ranking and reputation upset) help even the outlook. LSU hit a very composed and consistent meet and was the stronger team, but this was not their best gymnastics. Beam was more nervy than it has been in other meets, and the vault landings can be much more controlled. And Courville's floor still has some random issue almost every time. Still, LSU confirmed that there is no real quality-of-gymnastics gap between them and the other title contenders. They are capable of beating a hit meet from any other team. They won't necessarily need to hope for errors once Nationals come around.
The Tigers still trail Oklahoma by three tenths in the RQS battle, but they are going to Alabama next weekend with a golden chance to get rid of that mid-196 road score and pick up at least a couple tenths, which would put the pressure on the Sooners. They can't catch Oklahoma yet, but they can make it competitive.
Of note, Ashleigh Gnat had verging on the best performances I've seen from her on all of her events.
October 13, 2014
Worlds Final Thoughts
The World Championships are over for another year. Sigh. Now we have to return to normal sleep schedules of more than 2.5 hours per night. Like losers. On the plus side, this means it's officially time to start thinking about the NCAA season again. I'll be starting up the freshman profiles again in the coming weeks. We've got some good ones. But first, a few final thoughts about Worlds, including multiple mentions of Cheng Fei. Because I need to.
1) My theory that the best things about gymnastics competitions never have anything to do with actual gymnastics continues to hold up.
2) You should never stop watching this video. Ever. The bee was my third-favorite gymnast at these championships. Such poise. Such grace. It knows how to hit a cue.
3) This year is the most I've ever watched of a World Championships. So many sessions. And I was bleary-eyed for all of them. Scott Bregman and USA Gymnastics are nailing this whole coverage thing. Live coverage of Russia's qualification session? Sure. Because heaven.
4) Simone Biles has 9 Worlds medals. 9. She basically just has to make the team next year to set the US record. Technically, I would say she's tied for the record already. As much as I adore Alicia Sacramone, she wasn't even in the same country as the team competing when she got her 10th, so it doesn't count.
5) Only one member of the 2010 US team ended up making the Olympic team (Aly Raisman), and to be honest, I wouldn't be all that shocked if it happened again for the 2014 team.
6) Competitive women's AA final! Until things started to take shape a few weeks before Worlds, I don't think many people thought it would be this competitive, but combine a slightly shaky Biles with a hitting Iordache and we had a real competition. An interesting one. For four whole rotations. We haven't had a legitimate, international, multi-year rivalry in a long time, and I would love if Biles and Iordache got that going for the next few. With a Mustafina thrown in for luck.
7) Hopefully this competitiveness will put to rest the silly idea that Simone running the table in the AA this quad and winning all the competitions through the Olympics is inevitable. It's not inevitable. There are challenges both in the US and outside the US.
8) Kyla Ross. Keeping it simple. Don't fall, win medal. Repeat.
9) The Chinese women are hard to watch on floor right now. Dance of the Splintering Stick Figures. We need some Cheng Fei action out there. Stat.
10) Speaking of Cheng Fei, is the ragged Cheng the new hip thing on vault? At least it's a different entry. I expect to see a number of Sosnitskaya Chengs at Worlds next year. It'll be a thing.
11) Huang Huidan should have won bars.
12) But that's really the only individual gold medal result I'm feeling worked-up about, which is pretty good. I think you can argue that Hong Un Jong was just another member of the broke-ass Cheng club and that she wasn't adequately penalized for her landing on that vault, but the difficulty deficit was always going to be hard for Biles to make up, even with superior execution.
13) Also Beckie Downie didn't medal on bars, so the final is invalid.
14) If you don't fulfill all five composition requirements in your routine, as you try to land your dismount, the mat should automatically retract revealing a shark tank below.
15) These acro series on beam. I love originality and creativity and people not doing the easy, expected thing as much as the next person, but you have to be smart about it. I was very disappointed that Mustafina wasn't able to muster some kind of acro series in EFs, especially because she has so many routine options to choose from and is usually good at routine improvisation.
16) That said, Mustafina still got the bronze on beam. HA! Only Aliya could miss a CR and still win a medal. Many are up in arms about this. I'm not.
17) Mustafina's reaction to her floor bronze was priceless. Such shock and joy. Oh sorry, I meant COLD COMMIE DIVA. I forgot my narrative for a second. How silly of me. Many are up in arms about this one as well, and I'm still not, even if this is the weakest floor routine she has ever had. She still carries the hell out of it. Do I have a Zamarripa-esque blind spot where Mustafina is concerned? Maybe. I also don't care.
18) For those of us who focus on women's gymnastics, the joke is that we can't stand watching pommel horse, but I enjoy it (at least from people not in the "happy to get a 12.000 category," but that's true of every event). I find it visually soothing, like watching a screen saver, especially from people who make it look easy like Berki.
19) Speaking of Berki, let's hear it for the talls! While our Dear Wonderful Shatilov didn't make floor finals (mostly because he is currently sporting unauthorized facial hair), Berki and Moznik both got medals. I think those two might legitimately come up to my chin, which is an accomplishment. We'd actually look like part of the same species.
20) So yes for pommel horse, but less yes for rings. That's my 6th place men's event. Although the "sup y'all" chin lift still makes me laugh every single time, so that's something. In breaking news, parallel bars has moved to the top spot on my men's event rankings. There is little more satisfying in the world than a perfect handstand on pbars.
21) Ryohei Kato looks exactly like a porcelain doll. I imagine that immediately after a competition ends, he goes all Toy Story and flops to the ground before being put back up on an old lady's shelf.
22) Who is in charge of selecting the between-rotations music at Worlds? I really hope there's a committee about it and they take it super seriously. With graphs and flow charts.
23) The World Championships of Hilarious Pronunciations finished on a high. During the men's hbar medal ceremony, the PA guy introduced the gold medalist "Epic Zonderland." Fitting.
1) My theory that the best things about gymnastics competitions never have anything to do with actual gymnastics continues to hold up.
2) You should never stop watching this video. Ever. The bee was my third-favorite gymnast at these championships. Such poise. Such grace. It knows how to hit a cue.
3) This year is the most I've ever watched of a World Championships. So many sessions. And I was bleary-eyed for all of them. Scott Bregman and USA Gymnastics are nailing this whole coverage thing. Live coverage of Russia's qualification session? Sure. Because heaven.
4) Simone Biles has 9 Worlds medals. 9. She basically just has to make the team next year to set the US record. Technically, I would say she's tied for the record already. As much as I adore Alicia Sacramone, she wasn't even in the same country as the team competing when she got her 10th, so it doesn't count.
5) Only one member of the 2010 US team ended up making the Olympic team (Aly Raisman), and to be honest, I wouldn't be all that shocked if it happened again for the 2014 team.
6) Competitive women's AA final! Until things started to take shape a few weeks before Worlds, I don't think many people thought it would be this competitive, but combine a slightly shaky Biles with a hitting Iordache and we had a real competition. An interesting one. For four whole rotations. We haven't had a legitimate, international, multi-year rivalry in a long time, and I would love if Biles and Iordache got that going for the next few. With a Mustafina thrown in for luck.
7) Hopefully this competitiveness will put to rest the silly idea that Simone running the table in the AA this quad and winning all the competitions through the Olympics is inevitable. It's not inevitable. There are challenges both in the US and outside the US.
8) Kyla Ross. Keeping it simple. Don't fall, win medal. Repeat.
9) The Chinese women are hard to watch on floor right now. Dance of the Splintering Stick Figures. We need some Cheng Fei action out there. Stat.
10) Speaking of Cheng Fei, is the ragged Cheng the new hip thing on vault? At least it's a different entry. I expect to see a number of Sosnitskaya Chengs at Worlds next year. It'll be a thing.
11) Huang Huidan should have won bars.
12) But that's really the only individual gold medal result I'm feeling worked-up about, which is pretty good. I think you can argue that Hong Un Jong was just another member of the broke-ass Cheng club and that she wasn't adequately penalized for her landing on that vault, but the difficulty deficit was always going to be hard for Biles to make up, even with superior execution.
13) Also Beckie Downie didn't medal on bars, so the final is invalid.
14) If you don't fulfill all five composition requirements in your routine, as you try to land your dismount, the mat should automatically retract revealing a shark tank below.
15) These acro series on beam. I love originality and creativity and people not doing the easy, expected thing as much as the next person, but you have to be smart about it. I was very disappointed that Mustafina wasn't able to muster some kind of acro series in EFs, especially because she has so many routine options to choose from and is usually good at routine improvisation.
16) That said, Mustafina still got the bronze on beam. HA! Only Aliya could miss a CR and still win a medal. Many are up in arms about this. I'm not.
17) Mustafina's reaction to her floor bronze was priceless. Such shock and joy. Oh sorry, I meant COLD COMMIE DIVA. I forgot my narrative for a second. How silly of me. Many are up in arms about this one as well, and I'm still not, even if this is the weakest floor routine she has ever had. She still carries the hell out of it. Do I have a Zamarripa-esque blind spot where Mustafina is concerned? Maybe. I also don't care.
18) For those of us who focus on women's gymnastics, the joke is that we can't stand watching pommel horse, but I enjoy it (at least from people not in the "happy to get a 12.000 category," but that's true of every event). I find it visually soothing, like watching a screen saver, especially from people who make it look easy like Berki.
19) Speaking of Berki, let's hear it for the talls! While our Dear Wonderful Shatilov didn't make floor finals (mostly because he is currently sporting unauthorized facial hair), Berki and Moznik both got medals. I think those two might legitimately come up to my chin, which is an accomplishment. We'd actually look like part of the same species.
20) So yes for pommel horse, but less yes for rings. That's my 6th place men's event. Although the "sup y'all" chin lift still makes me laugh every single time, so that's something. In breaking news, parallel bars has moved to the top spot on my men's event rankings. There is little more satisfying in the world than a perfect handstand on pbars.
21) Ryohei Kato looks exactly like a porcelain doll. I imagine that immediately after a competition ends, he goes all Toy Story and flops to the ground before being put back up on an old lady's shelf.
22) Who is in charge of selecting the between-rotations music at Worlds? I really hope there's a committee about it and they take it super seriously. With graphs and flow charts.
23) The World Championships of Hilarious Pronunciations finished on a high. During the men's hbar medal ceremony, the PA guy introduced the gold medalist "Epic Zonderland." Fitting.
October 8, 2014
Women's Team Final
After a thrilling and controversial x 1000 men's final yesterday, we had a not-that on the women's side today. I don't have a specific-enough understanding of the men's code to make any kind of argument about scoring, at least with any confidence in myself (I'd start giving Kohei hair bonuses, and it would be all over the place). But, Uncle Tim has an excellent write-up of some of the issues involved in Zhang's final gargantuan score. I defer.
I will say though, at first viewing, the Chinese high bar score that stood out to me as the stranger one was Lin's preceding Zhang's, with that completely horizontal turn at one point. Is this a situation like we often see in NCAA where a questionable 10 is awarded, and gets all the attention, but the real culprit is the super-random 9.950 beforehand that pushes the following score up?
But now some thoughts on the women's team final.
1) The USA. Obviously. As much as I enjoy watching the US step all over everyone else's faces while wearing Rene Lyst heels, it does make things super boring. A few more years of this, and I could see a serious change coming to start increasing the p-word. (Which is parity, if you don't read here a lot.)
2) Alyssa Baumann's lovely, non-broadcast leadoff beam routine. If I had to pick one place where I thought the US would fall in TF, it would have been here, but she got it down with just a couple wobbles. Martha's little project scored big points (both real and figurative) for this.
3) Baumann had the smallest issues of the three US gymnasts on beam considering Ross did a third-base coach on her side somi and Simone had a larger-than-usual break on the layouts series. Of course, it didn't matter, which was the problem with this final. That was such an uncharacteristic break for Kyla, but it was like, "Eh, whatever, go ahead and fall if you want. Have a blast. Do some jazz hands. Take a nap. It will change nothing."
4) While we still have a chance to be excited before everyone gets injured over the next 12 months, the fight for the 2015 US team looks fuu-uun.
5) Overall, this competition was terrible. We're allowed to say that. Splatty bombatty. I'm looking at you, Russia and China.
6) Credit to Romania for pulling it together a little bit more in TF, or at least for letting Iordache be the star and not getting in her way too much. With that bars situation, fourth was as much as they could have hoped for, yet they almost got a Happy October gift of much more.
7) The Craig Heap and Christine Still pronunciation debacle is hysterical. Seriously, it's not that hard. It takes two seconds of research to figure it out (the magic of youtube videos of domestic competitions—put your listening ears on!), and yet that definitely would have decreased my enjoyment of the meet tenfold. Craig stopped trying after a while. By the time we got to floor, he just introduced "Tan Jrrrrrr."
8) Gah, Russia. You should be doing so much better. It's not exactly an "I never expected the Russians to put up an athlete with so little talent" situation, but they're seriously lacking in the non-Mustafina category.
9) It's sort of offensive to me when people don't even have the common decency to be Aliya Mustafina. There were so many people walking around today not being Aliya Mustafina. Unacceptable behavior.
10) I can finally (FINALLY) remember the difference between Alla Sosnitskaya and Daria Spiridonova after this competition. And I don't like it.
11) I love how Grishina is seen as the fragile, headcase one in the eyes of the Rodionenkos and cronies because of the Olympics, but . . . as opposed to . . .? You have no less-headcasesque options. You better get on hands and knees to get that girl back when she's healthy. You would be lucky to have her.
12A) China's lineups. A side-eye experience. Why on earth was Shang Chunsong going on bars over Tan Jrrrrrr? Shang had been doing consistently worse than Tan at Asian Games and in prelims. Tsk. Tsk. Tsk. No sense. A fall is appropriate punishment for that decision. Though a 7.666 is not appropriate punishment for that routine quality.
12B) Also, Bai Yawen, who qualified second on the team into beam finals, was not selected to do beam. It didn't end up being a problem for the team, but it does reflect that she's probably not in the highest standing with the team coaches if they didn't even want to use her on her good event.
13) There's no excuse for Hannah Whelan's 4.5 D score on beam. She missed her acro series and lost 0.5 in CR, but when you do such a risky combination as your only acro series, there has to be a plan B in mind (and trained) just in case. This is like in 2010 when Mattie lost that decisive CR after not doing her combo pass or a simple forward element. That cannot happen. It's too avoidable.
14)
Let's play "Who can actually find 1.2 in deductions in Kyla's bars routine?" Remember after the first night of US championships when SHE CAN'T DO BARS ANYMORE?
15) It was nice to see Australia show up with three events worth of routines that are very well-executed, though somewhat low in difficulty. An important change from the "you must have a 7.9 D score on beam, otherwise get back in the cage" attitude from last year.
16) Italy managed to finish 5th at both Worlds and Euros this year. One of those is a good result, and one is a bad result. Today, Italy scored 7.5 points better than Euro team finals, Russia scored 2 points better, and Romania and GB did around 2 points worse.
17) Japan is also a team, and I'll just say this about the leotards: at least they're going for something different. In true Project Runway fashion, I give more credit to that than to the fourth-rate versions of SPARKLY GIRL TIME SPARKLES that we usually see.
I will say though, at first viewing, the Chinese high bar score that stood out to me as the stranger one was Lin's preceding Zhang's, with that completely horizontal turn at one point. Is this a situation like we often see in NCAA where a questionable 10 is awarded, and gets all the attention, but the real culprit is the super-random 9.950 beforehand that pushes the following score up?
But now some thoughts on the women's team final.
1) The USA. Obviously. As much as I enjoy watching the US step all over everyone else's faces while wearing Rene Lyst heels, it does make things super boring. A few more years of this, and I could see a serious change coming to start increasing the p-word. (Which is parity, if you don't read here a lot.)
2) Alyssa Baumann's lovely, non-broadcast leadoff beam routine. If I had to pick one place where I thought the US would fall in TF, it would have been here, but she got it down with just a couple wobbles. Martha's little project scored big points (both real and figurative) for this.
3) Baumann had the smallest issues of the three US gymnasts on beam considering Ross did a third-base coach on her side somi and Simone had a larger-than-usual break on the layouts series. Of course, it didn't matter, which was the problem with this final. That was such an uncharacteristic break for Kyla, but it was like, "Eh, whatever, go ahead and fall if you want. Have a blast. Do some jazz hands. Take a nap. It will change nothing."
4) While we still have a chance to be excited before everyone gets injured over the next 12 months, the fight for the 2015 US team looks fuu-uun.
5) Overall, this competition was terrible. We're allowed to say that. Splatty bombatty. I'm looking at you, Russia and China.
6) Credit to Romania for pulling it together a little bit more in TF, or at least for letting Iordache be the star and not getting in her way too much. With that bars situation, fourth was as much as they could have hoped for, yet they almost got a Happy October gift of much more.
7) The Craig Heap and Christine Still pronunciation debacle is hysterical. Seriously, it's not that hard. It takes two seconds of research to figure it out (the magic of youtube videos of domestic competitions—put your listening ears on!), and yet that definitely would have decreased my enjoyment of the meet tenfold. Craig stopped trying after a while. By the time we got to floor, he just introduced "Tan Jrrrrrr."
8) Gah, Russia. You should be doing so much better. It's not exactly an "I never expected the Russians to put up an athlete with so little talent" situation, but they're seriously lacking in the non-Mustafina category.
9) It's sort of offensive to me when people don't even have the common decency to be Aliya Mustafina. There were so many people walking around today not being Aliya Mustafina. Unacceptable behavior.
10) I can finally (FINALLY) remember the difference between Alla Sosnitskaya and Daria Spiridonova after this competition. And I don't like it.
11) I love how Grishina is seen as the fragile, headcase one in the eyes of the Rodionenkos and cronies because of the Olympics, but . . . as opposed to . . .? You have no less-headcasesque options. You better get on hands and knees to get that girl back when she's healthy. You would be lucky to have her.
12A) China's lineups. A side-eye experience. Why on earth was Shang Chunsong going on bars over Tan Jrrrrrr? Shang had been doing consistently worse than Tan at Asian Games and in prelims. Tsk. Tsk. Tsk. No sense. A fall is appropriate punishment for that decision. Though a 7.666 is not appropriate punishment for that routine quality.
12B) Also, Bai Yawen, who qualified second on the team into beam finals, was not selected to do beam. It didn't end up being a problem for the team, but it does reflect that she's probably not in the highest standing with the team coaches if they didn't even want to use her on her good event.
13) There's no excuse for Hannah Whelan's 4.5 D score on beam. She missed her acro series and lost 0.5 in CR, but when you do such a risky combination as your only acro series, there has to be a plan B in mind (and trained) just in case. This is like in 2010 when Mattie lost that decisive CR after not doing her combo pass or a simple forward element. That cannot happen. It's too avoidable.
14)
Let's play "Who can actually find 1.2 in deductions in Kyla's bars routine?" Remember after the first night of US championships when SHE CAN'T DO BARS ANYMORE?
15) It was nice to see Australia show up with three events worth of routines that are very well-executed, though somewhat low in difficulty. An important change from the "you must have a 7.9 D score on beam, otherwise get back in the cage" attitude from last year.
16) Italy managed to finish 5th at both Worlds and Euros this year. One of those is a good result, and one is a bad result. Today, Italy scored 7.5 points better than Euro team finals, Russia scored 2 points better, and Romania and GB did around 2 points worse.
17) Japan is also a team, and I'll just say this about the leotards: at least they're going for something different. In true Project Runway fashion, I give more credit to that than to the fourth-rate versions of SPARKLY GIRL TIME SPARKLES that we usually see.
August 26, 2014
Post-Championships
Another national championship done and done. And then it's over. And then what's the point of anything anymore? Guh.
Simone Biles is the star of the world. Obviously. She's just better than you. And by you, I mean everyone. She's a thoroughly enjoyable national champion. I even had a moment where I was eager to hear Simone's post-meet interviews, which is strange and new territory. Can you believe it? I want to know what she's going to say! Who was the last US gymnast who was engaging enough in interviews to make them worth watching? Alicia Sacramone? That's a victory in itself. Who even cares about the meet?
Especially because Simone's excellence made the whole thing not super exciting. We were left to try to enjoy the scraps of the fight for second, which is inherently non-dramatic. It's like when you're playing a board game with a group of people, someone wins, and then someone else inevitably says, "Do you want to keep playing for second?" and you're like ". . . no." That was this national championship. At least Sam Mikulak had the decency to kind of screw up on the first day so that he could mount a glorious and dramatic comeback on day 2 to make it competitive and down-to-the-wire and all the other things we like.
My favorite part of the men's second day was listening to Tim Daggett try to balance his commentary between "Jake Dalton is obviously not going to win—he finishes on pommel horse" and trying to force himself to pretend like Dalton was still in it for the title to feed into the Trautwiggy/NBCy need to turn up the drama and make everything into "THE BIGGEST MOMENT OF HIS LIFE," which I think Al said at least six times. Well, at one point he said, "the last rotation of his life," which was weird and morbid and I didn't know what was happening. Someone who has a lot of time and energy should go through all the old NBC broadcasts and cut together every time Al says that a routine is the biggest moment of someone's life. It would be an epic miniseries. Nastia alone probably had between 12 and 15 biggest moments of her life.
Simone Biles is the star of the world. Obviously. She's just better than you. And by you, I mean everyone. She's a thoroughly enjoyable national champion. I even had a moment where I was eager to hear Simone's post-meet interviews, which is strange and new territory. Can you believe it? I want to know what she's going to say! Who was the last US gymnast who was engaging enough in interviews to make them worth watching? Alicia Sacramone? That's a victory in itself. Who even cares about the meet?
Especially because Simone's excellence made the whole thing not super exciting. We were left to try to enjoy the scraps of the fight for second, which is inherently non-dramatic. It's like when you're playing a board game with a group of people, someone wins, and then someone else inevitably says, "Do you want to keep playing for second?" and you're like ". . . no." That was this national championship. At least Sam Mikulak had the decency to kind of screw up on the first day so that he could mount a glorious and dramatic comeback on day 2 to make it competitive and down-to-the-wire and all the other things we like.
My favorite part of the men's second day was listening to Tim Daggett try to balance his commentary between "Jake Dalton is obviously not going to win—he finishes on pommel horse" and trying to force himself to pretend like Dalton was still in it for the title to feed into the Trautwiggy/NBCy need to turn up the drama and make everything into "THE BIGGEST MOMENT OF HIS LIFE," which I think Al said at least six times. Well, at one point he said, "the last rotation of his life," which was weird and morbid and I didn't know what was happening. Someone who has a lot of time and energy should go through all the old NBC broadcasts and cut together every time Al says that a routine is the biggest moment of someone's life. It would be an epic miniseries. Nastia alone probably had between 12 and 15 biggest moments of her life.
August 17, 2014
Post-Classic, Pre-Championships Difficulties
Now that we have lurched ourselves in that strange, antsy interim period between Classic and Championships, it's time to revisit the difficulty scores for the US women based on what we learned at Classic, which was mostly nothing. Classic essentially served to confirm what we already knew, that Simone Biles and Kyla Ross are dominating the all-around picture, without providing many answers about the rest of the senior elite group.
But the picture has adjusted slightly, so I have updated the super cool, popular kid spreadsheets of current D-scores on each event after the performances at Classic. I retained a couple D-scores that we haven't yet seen this season, like the 6.4 and 6.1 on bars for Ross and Biles respectively, because even though they didn't try those routines at Classic, both are intending to build back up to those scores as the year progresses.
As necessary, I tried to remove the stick bonus from Classic (which was irritatingly added to the D-Score) wherever it reared its ugly head, so I have Biles at her real score of 6.5 on floor and Locklear at her real 6.5 on bars, but I grant I may have missed a few.
VAULT
Biles, obviously. With Maroney injured and Price off to Stanford, Biles is clearly the best vaulter in the country. After that, it gets a bit interesting.
Mykayla Skinner, you guys. What are we going to do about this situation? Without that many difficult vaults being done right now, 2014 would seem like the year for her to muscle her way onto the team as a vault specialist with that Dadaist Cheng of hers. Yet, at Classic she scored lower on vault than Ross, even if we take out Kyla's stick bonus. You don't get to be a vault specialist if you're scoring lower than Kyla Ross's DTY. That's the rule. We tend to look only at the highest difficulty vaults in formulating prospective team final scenarios, but the US could be perfectly fine at Worlds using Ross's DTY as a leadoff. They'd still have a big vault advantage. If Skinner is going to make it to Worlds as a vaulter, she'll have to prove that she is markedly and reliably better than Ross, which she hasn't done yet.
However, Skinner's vault fate may rest mostly in the hands of Gowey and Dowell, the final two current members of the Amanar club. Gowey went for the 2.5 at Classic and fell, so she'll have to prove some consistency with that vault at Championships/selection to be considered as a vaulter. She is a Martha favorite, though, so she'll have time to find that consistency. With Dowell, who even knows where she is with that ankle injury, but her 2.5 has been usable in the past. She'll still be in the conversation if she ends up showing four events soon. We have the potential for an entertaining vault showdown brewing among this group of non-Biles vaulters. A couple of them need to finish top 3 on vault at Nationals.
But the picture has adjusted slightly, so I have updated the super cool, popular kid spreadsheets of current D-scores on each event after the performances at Classic. I retained a couple D-scores that we haven't yet seen this season, like the 6.4 and 6.1 on bars for Ross and Biles respectively, because even though they didn't try those routines at Classic, both are intending to build back up to those scores as the year progresses.
As necessary, I tried to remove the stick bonus from Classic (which was irritatingly added to the D-Score) wherever it reared its ugly head, so I have Biles at her real score of 6.5 on floor and Locklear at her real 6.5 on bars, but I grant I may have missed a few.
VAULT
Biles, obviously. With Maroney injured and Price off to Stanford, Biles is clearly the best vaulter in the country. After that, it gets a bit interesting.
Mykayla Skinner, you guys. What are we going to do about this situation? Without that many difficult vaults being done right now, 2014 would seem like the year for her to muscle her way onto the team as a vault specialist with that Dadaist Cheng of hers. Yet, at Classic she scored lower on vault than Ross, even if we take out Kyla's stick bonus. You don't get to be a vault specialist if you're scoring lower than Kyla Ross's DTY. That's the rule. We tend to look only at the highest difficulty vaults in formulating prospective team final scenarios, but the US could be perfectly fine at Worlds using Ross's DTY as a leadoff. They'd still have a big vault advantage. If Skinner is going to make it to Worlds as a vaulter, she'll have to prove that she is markedly and reliably better than Ross, which she hasn't done yet.
However, Skinner's vault fate may rest mostly in the hands of Gowey and Dowell, the final two current members of the Amanar club. Gowey went for the 2.5 at Classic and fell, so she'll have to prove some consistency with that vault at Championships/selection to be considered as a vaulter. She is a Martha favorite, though, so she'll have time to find that consistency. With Dowell, who even knows where she is with that ankle injury, but her 2.5 has been usable in the past. She'll still be in the conversation if she ends up showing four events soon. We have the potential for an entertaining vault showdown brewing among this group of non-Biles vaulters. A couple of them need to finish top 3 on vault at Nationals.
July 25, 2014
Pre-Classic Difficulties
Last week I mentioned that we needed some elite drama to distract from speculating about the not-coming-soon-enough NCAA season, and while GabbyWatch 2014: The De-Chowening has been fun and all, it turns out that we actually have Secret Classic coming up in a few weeks and that there are actual gymnasts competing in it. Weird.
The Pre-Classic period is among the most hilarious in the gymnastics calendar because the extended lack of summer competition gradually turns people's minds into a powder, so we all get disproportionally excited about a mostly meaningless competition, just because it's something. Remember last year how Simone Biles was sick and got a -3 on every event and it was a disaster? Yeah, me neither.
Nonetheless, I'm part of this community of powder brains, so I'm excited, mostly to observe all those people in that Kocian/Gowey/Ernst/Dowell peloton of Worlds consideration to see who can make the leap into Biles/Ross territory, along with following other stories like what the Priessman status is post-Cincinnati. Not putting Lexie Priessman in the same rotation as MLT at Classic is a grave error. What do they think we're watching this for? The gymnastics? We need sideshows, people!
As a way of acclimating myself to the current elite story, I'm checking out the current D-Scores going into Classic ("current" meaning "awarded in competition in the last 12 months"). And if you're not the type who keeps a running tally of current D-Scores on your desktop at all times, shame on you, but that means we can explore it together.
Of course, Classic is when new routines and new difficulty are debuted, so this is just a starting point. Some will go up, others will decrease as a result of some sensible downgrading, but this is where we are now.
VAULT
Vault has suddenly become slightly interesting because the dynamic has changed. We're accustomed to having a glut of Amanars these days, but with Price stopping elite and Maroney being injured for the moment, there are fewer choices and less room to be discerning about which vaults are worthy of being taken to Worlds. This is especially true since the Amanars from Ross and Priessman appear to have gone the way of the dodo.
But as I said, this is just a starting point. If it were an ending point, Skinner, Biles, and Dowell would be skating through to China in October based solely on difficulty, but Rachel Gowey showed a solid Amanar at the ranch, which could throw a wrench into the otherwise clean picture. And since everyone knows how important the 2.5 is, I can't imagine all the peons are content sticking with their DTYs. Classic is the land of upgrades, sometimes advised and sometimes ill-advised. That's why Classic podium training is the best. There's always at least one "Oh, honey, no."
The Pre-Classic period is among the most hilarious in the gymnastics calendar because the extended lack of summer competition gradually turns people's minds into a powder, so we all get disproportionally excited about a mostly meaningless competition, just because it's something. Remember last year how Simone Biles was sick and got a -3 on every event and it was a disaster? Yeah, me neither.
Nonetheless, I'm part of this community of powder brains, so I'm excited, mostly to observe all those people in that Kocian/Gowey/Ernst/Dowell peloton of Worlds consideration to see who can make the leap into Biles/Ross territory, along with following other stories like what the Priessman status is post-Cincinnati. Not putting Lexie Priessman in the same rotation as MLT at Classic is a grave error. What do they think we're watching this for? The gymnastics? We need sideshows, people!
As a way of acclimating myself to the current elite story, I'm checking out the current D-Scores going into Classic ("current" meaning "awarded in competition in the last 12 months"). And if you're not the type who keeps a running tally of current D-Scores on your desktop at all times, shame on you, but that means we can explore it together.
Of course, Classic is when new routines and new difficulty are debuted, so this is just a starting point. Some will go up, others will decrease as a result of some sensible downgrading, but this is where we are now.
VAULT
Vault has suddenly become slightly interesting because the dynamic has changed. We're accustomed to having a glut of Amanars these days, but with Price stopping elite and Maroney being injured for the moment, there are fewer choices and less room to be discerning about which vaults are worthy of being taken to Worlds. This is especially true since the Amanars from Ross and Priessman appear to have gone the way of the dodo.
But as I said, this is just a starting point. If it were an ending point, Skinner, Biles, and Dowell would be skating through to China in October based solely on difficulty, but Rachel Gowey showed a solid Amanar at the ranch, which could throw a wrench into the otherwise clean picture. And since everyone knows how important the 2.5 is, I can't imagine all the peons are content sticking with their DTYs. Classic is the land of upgrades, sometimes advised and sometimes ill-advised. That's why Classic podium training is the best. There's always at least one "Oh, honey, no."
October 6, 2013
Worlds Reflections and Looking Ahead
The World Championships are over for another year. Breathe. Relax. Maybe have an entire pie. You've earned it. It's an emotionally draining experience that you need to talk over with some food. True science: Watching an Aliya Mustafina training session is the equivalent of running a 10K. You lose a lot of fluids and need to replenish. Here are my reflections about Worlds, as well as some notes about what's to come.
- On the men's side, I have to say that I'm being less of a disgrace to my sex and getting more into men's gymnastics these days. I think part of the reason is that I don't know the code all that well. I'm like Shannon Miller doing the commentary during the 2012 Olympics. I'm really proud of myself for knowing what a Tippelt is, and that's about it. I don't have a working knowledge of a lot of the deductions (at least the ones that are men-specific and aren't universal gymnastics deductions), so I can enjoy the gymnastics without seeing only deductions. In women's, all I see are the mistakes.
- Kohei won again. Yep. OK. Heh. It's such a tough position because we expect everything from him. At this point, he can be interesting only by screwing up. His excellence is no longer news. We're just waiting for him to make a mistake so we can start paying attention.
- Sam the Ham, Lord Dancy Pants, had a medal within his grasp in the men's AA, then America-ed his HB routine to finish 6th. That, however, was beside the point because his dancing became the star. It was a serious talking point like it was something unusual. Maybe I've just spent too much time watching NCAA, but my reaction was "Yes, constant dancing, this is normal." You know Bridget Sloan saw his land speed record for podium dancing and was like, "Puh. Child's play. I dance more than that before vault." But honestly, if you didn't compose a chair-based interpretive dance to the between-rotations music from Worlds, then I understand nothing about you. Mine is about the changing of the seasons and loss of innocence. You'll probably cry.
- Epke Zonderland used the applause-o-meter to win HB over Fabian Hambuechen. (Did you notice Fabian watching Sam Mikulak throughout the competition trying to pick up tips on how to be more hammy? Love it.) It's impossible to be mad at darling Epke because everything about him is a Dr. Seuss character: his face, his last name, his hair. He's basically a truffula tree. In fact, it's a little known truth that Oh, the Places You'll Go! was actually written about Epke's legs. "You can steer yourself any direction you choose. You're on your own. And you know what you know. And YOU are the one who'll decide where to go."
July 20, 2013
A Secret Classic Post Without a Pun in the Title
And it was really hard to resist, but I think we can all agree that this particular well of rolling eyes has been more than exhausted. Yes, secret is an actual word and a sponsor of an event. We get it.
But first, time to keep up with a little NCAA talk. I'm soooo changeable.
Earlier this week, Jenni Pinches announced she will be attending UCLA for the 2013-2014 season, giving a big, unexpected boost to the Bruins for next year. The UCLA scholarship situation is always a little bit of witch's brew (eye of newt, toe of frog, Kaelie Baer – we don't know what's in there), so it's not yet clear whether there was an opening or whether the team had to play "Eeny, meeny, miny, medical retirement." We'll see in time.
Pinches brings early or mid lineup potential on all four events, a tremendous piece of security for a team losing half of its Super Six routines from last season. While the injury comebacks and the already-committed freshmen would likely have prevented a repeat of the depth problems from last season, some holes still presented themselves. On certain events, the Bruins would have had enough routines to get by but perhaps only about 7 that they would really want to compete, while the others made up the depth charts. That's assuming seamless comebacks from the injured, which is hardly assured, and would not be enough for any degree of confidence. One person gets injured, someone else needs time to get back into form, and it's Alyssa Pritchett's 9.750 on vault all over again. Pinches provides breathing room and solid .050s here and there over what otherwise could have competed.
Back in the elite realm, the Secret Classic is just a week away. The roster was released early this week, and it features 17 seniors and 46 juniors.
The senior roster contains the usual batch of "OMG you guys! I qualified elite!" mixed with the "Look at me Martha! Please! Look at me! She knows my name, right?" mixed with the "See you in Belgium, beyotches!"
That's part of the fun of the first year of the quad, the mixture.
But first, time to keep up with a little NCAA talk. I'm soooo changeable.
Earlier this week, Jenni Pinches announced she will be attending UCLA for the 2013-2014 season, giving a big, unexpected boost to the Bruins for next year. The UCLA scholarship situation is always a little bit of witch's brew (eye of newt, toe of frog, Kaelie Baer – we don't know what's in there), so it's not yet clear whether there was an opening or whether the team had to play "Eeny, meeny, miny, medical retirement." We'll see in time.
Pinches brings early or mid lineup potential on all four events, a tremendous piece of security for a team losing half of its Super Six routines from last season. While the injury comebacks and the already-committed freshmen would likely have prevented a repeat of the depth problems from last season, some holes still presented themselves. On certain events, the Bruins would have had enough routines to get by but perhaps only about 7 that they would really want to compete, while the others made up the depth charts. That's assuming seamless comebacks from the injured, which is hardly assured, and would not be enough for any degree of confidence. One person gets injured, someone else needs time to get back into form, and it's Alyssa Pritchett's 9.750 on vault all over again. Pinches provides breathing room and solid .050s here and there over what otherwise could have competed.
Back in the elite realm, the Secret Classic is just a week away. The roster was released early this week, and it features 17 seniors and 46 juniors.
The senior roster contains the usual batch of "OMG you guys! I qualified elite!" mixed with the "Look at me Martha! Please! Look at me! She knows my name, right?" mixed with the "See you in Belgium, beyotches!"
That's part of the fun of the first year of the quad, the mixture.
July 31, 2012
Women's Team Final
This is it, our day of days. I hope the gymnasts are less nervous than I am right now, because otherwise they will all be falling all over the beam. If there was ever evidence that I could never be a high-level athlete, my mental state right now is it. I'm not even doing anything.
Gabby Douglas, Huang Qiushuang, and Ksenia Afanasyeva are all doing beam in an Olympic Team Final. I think I have reason to be disconcerted. How many times over the months and years have we said, "over my dead body" about all three of those?
Well, here we go. All of the attention will revolve around how the US hasn't won since 1996, but the Russians have technically never won (as an independent state), so both are overdue. China is relying on Yao to do vault in Team Finals, so that tells me what I need to know about their chances, and Romania just isn't strong enough on bars or vault (aside from Izbasa) to challenge hits from the US and Russia. I say hits, but honestly I would be surprised if either the US or Russia goes 12 for 12 tonight. There will be falls, the question is when and how many.
Follow along after the jump at 11:30 ET/8:30 PT
Gabby Douglas, Huang Qiushuang, and Ksenia Afanasyeva are all doing beam in an Olympic Team Final. I think I have reason to be disconcerted. How many times over the months and years have we said, "over my dead body" about all three of those?
My current state:
Well, here we go. All of the attention will revolve around how the US hasn't won since 1996, but the Russians have technically never won (as an independent state), so both are overdue. China is relying on Yao to do vault in Team Finals, so that tells me what I need to know about their chances, and Romania just isn't strong enough on bars or vault (aside from Izbasa) to challenge hits from the US and Russia. I say hits, but honestly I would be surprised if either the US or Russia goes 12 for 12 tonight. There will be falls, the question is when and how many.
Follow along after the jump at 11:30 ET/8:30 PT
July 29, 2012
Live Women's Qualification - Subdivision 3
We are soon to get underway in the third subdivision of Women's Qualification, which features the US, Great Britain, France, and Canada. The final three subdivisions are the main event today, and I'm excited to see what the US can put up. Does it make me a bad gymnastics fan if I'm going to follow the US team from apparatus to apparatus instead of watching the main feed? I can watch the other important routines (so, Tweddle's bars) on replay. The non-US question of this group will be whether a PPL-free Canada can beat Australia's fall-laden score.
For the United States, the most important routines will be Maroney's vault (is she really ready to do it at the 16.000 level she needs?), Wieber's bars (that routine composition is hanging by a thread), and Douglas's beam (obviously). If they get what they need out of those performances, it will be a successful day. Also, keep your eye on the ball, and the ball is Aly Raisman. She's not so far behind Wieber and Douglas in AA scoring potential. A fall from one of them could become a total thing.
What's going to happen here?
Current Standings after two subdivisions
Team:
1. Italy - 168.397
2. Australia - 166.721
3. Brazil - 161. 295
All-Around:
1. Ferrari - 57.932
2. Gomez Porras - 56.132
3. Ferlito - 55.500
4. Steingruber - 54.715
5. Little - 54.498
Competition begins at 9:45 ET/6:45 PT with commentary here.
For the United States, the most important routines will be Maroney's vault (is she really ready to do it at the 16.000 level she needs?), Wieber's bars (that routine composition is hanging by a thread), and Douglas's beam (obviously). If they get what they need out of those performances, it will be a successful day. Also, keep your eye on the ball, and the ball is Aly Raisman. She's not so far behind Wieber and Douglas in AA scoring potential. A fall from one of them could become a total thing.
What's going to happen here?
Current Standings after two subdivisions
Team:
1. Italy - 168.397
2. Australia - 166.721
3. Brazil - 161. 295
All-Around:
1. Ferrari - 57.932
2. Gomez Porras - 56.132
3. Ferlito - 55.500
4. Steingruber - 54.715
5. Little - 54.498
Competition begins at 9:45 ET/6:45 PT with commentary here.
June 28, 2012
Trials Eve
Are there times when you wish you were a only a casual gymnastics fan? I do right now. Then, I would be going into Trials not knowing who the team might be and wondering what kind of exciting gymnastics I'm going to see. We spoil it for ourselves sometimes.
Examiner Blythe quotes Martha as saying what we already know. "Really, very honestly, I have one ideal team in my head. I still have the same team in my mind as I did two months ago." So do we, Martha. So do we.
I don't follow MAG as closely, but it seems like that race is a little more open, at least for the last spot. People who follow it obsessively may already know the team, but I don't, so I have that exciting, casual feeling going into those Trials.
Women's podium training yielding nothing much new. Nastia completed a bar routine that looks like it's going to be 50/50 for hitting in competition. Regardless of the hitting, the difficulty is just 6.5, which is not high enough for a specialist.
Many of the veterans are going through the motions when it comes to interviews about how they fit into the team, but you can tell that they know the game. I don't see a ton of delusion from those on the outside, which is nice. They can go out and enjoy their final elite competition, and we can enjoy watching them for the last time.
As we turn to evaluating how the group might fare in London, we need to look at a few specific routines. Unfortunately, the necessities of the five-member team leave few questions as to who will compete what in Team Finals (except perhaps floor), but the decision as to who will be the All-Around gymnasts could be made based on performances this weekend, so that will be fun to watch. The team is brimming with Amanars, but how people hit them at Trials will help determine lineups, so watch that. Martha loves Aly Raisman's sturdiness, which makes me think Aly is still in it for an AA spot, but the tide certainly is moving the other direction. If she scores lowest of the main group on vault and bars (quite possible), how can she be kept in the AA? Expect Douglas and Wieber to go 1-2, but watch the fight for third. Ross beating Raisman could seal that.
Examiner Blythe quotes Martha as saying what we already know. "Really, very honestly, I have one ideal team in my head. I still have the same team in my mind as I did two months ago." So do we, Martha. So do we.
I don't follow MAG as closely, but it seems like that race is a little more open, at least for the last spot. People who follow it obsessively may already know the team, but I don't, so I have that exciting, casual feeling going into those Trials.
Women's podium training yielding nothing much new. Nastia completed a bar routine that looks like it's going to be 50/50 for hitting in competition. Regardless of the hitting, the difficulty is just 6.5, which is not high enough for a specialist.
Many of the veterans are going through the motions when it comes to interviews about how they fit into the team, but you can tell that they know the game. I don't see a ton of delusion from those on the outside, which is nice. They can go out and enjoy their final elite competition, and we can enjoy watching them for the last time.
As we turn to evaluating how the group might fare in London, we need to look at a few specific routines. Unfortunately, the necessities of the five-member team leave few questions as to who will compete what in Team Finals (except perhaps floor), but the decision as to who will be the All-Around gymnasts could be made based on performances this weekend, so that will be fun to watch. The team is brimming with Amanars, but how people hit them at Trials will help determine lineups, so watch that. Martha loves Aly Raisman's sturdiness, which makes me think Aly is still in it for an AA spot, but the tide certainly is moving the other direction. If she scores lowest of the main group on vault and bars (quite possible), how can she be kept in the AA? Expect Douglas and Wieber to go 1-2, but watch the fight for third. Ross beating Raisman could seal that.
June 24, 2012
Olympic Trials: The Wishers and the Hopers
One of my concerns over limiting the teams to five members was that it
would make the Trials process anticlimactic if a clear five had already
emerged. This appears to be the case this year. However, sitting back and accepting the preordained Olympic team of Douglas, Wieber, Raisman, Ross, and Maroney would be no fun. So here's a look at the three things that anyone with a conceivable shot at the team (besides the total locks) needs to do next weekend to stay on the current "team"/make the actual team/get into the conversation.
McKayla Maroney
1) Be less concussion-y.
2) Start getting rid of that .3 step on vault. She won't score a 16 at the Olympics otherwise.
3) Keep that double tuck in bounds. There's no hope now that they will change the pass, so she just needs to keep it traveling forward and not land 15 feet OOB like she should. She's way to talented to be a 1.25 event gymnast.
Kyla Ross
1) No falls. With her lack of senior experience, she will be dealt the "can she handle the pressure?" card at Trials. She has to prove that she can. Her position is the most susceptible to crumbling with a poor performance.
2) Outscore the other 15ers on beam. There's a bushel of Sacramones and Finnegans and Liukins who can also score 15 on beam. Ross needs to beat them to maintain the status quo.
3) Send Martha some flowers with a card reading, "International look. Love, Kyla."
Rebecca Bross
1) Obviously, fix the Splatterson. Imagine if she were hitting that dismount like she did in 2010. It would legitimately be a close contest between her and Kyla for that UB/BB spot. We should all root for that beam routine to come together because it will make Trials more fun.
2) Perfect execution on bars. If she's going to knock off Ross, she has to match her for execution. She's at a legs disadvantage, so everything else has to be pristine.
3) Repair broken brain. Thinking about the dismount has taken a toll on the rest of her beam routine as it looks more tentative than it ever has before. Watch for the connection between the walkover and the bhs+layout. Performing that fluidly is a good indicator of her confidence.
McKayla Maroney
1) Be less concussion-y.
2) Start getting rid of that .3 step on vault. She won't score a 16 at the Olympics otherwise.
3) Keep that double tuck in bounds. There's no hope now that they will change the pass, so she just needs to keep it traveling forward and not land 15 feet OOB like she should. She's way to talented to be a 1.25 event gymnast.
Kyla Ross
1) No falls. With her lack of senior experience, she will be dealt the "can she handle the pressure?" card at Trials. She has to prove that she can. Her position is the most susceptible to crumbling with a poor performance.
2) Outscore the other 15ers on beam. There's a bushel of Sacramones and Finnegans and Liukins who can also score 15 on beam. Ross needs to beat them to maintain the status quo.
3) Send Martha some flowers with a card reading, "International look. Love, Kyla."
Rebecca Bross
1) Obviously, fix the Splatterson. Imagine if she were hitting that dismount like she did in 2010. It would legitimately be a close contest between her and Kyla for that UB/BB spot. We should all root for that beam routine to come together because it will make Trials more fun.
2) Perfect execution on bars. If she's going to knock off Ross, she has to match her for execution. She's at a legs disadvantage, so everything else has to be pristine.
3) Repair broken brain. Thinking about the dismount has taken a toll on the rest of her beam routine as it looks more tentative than it ever has before. Watch for the connection between the walkover and the bhs+layout. Performing that fluidly is a good indicator of her confidence.
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