Roster
Artz, Nicole - Junior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Brown, Brianna - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Casanova, Briley - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Chiarelli, Talia - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Christopherson, Nichelle - Sophomore - UB
Gordon, Ilana - Sophomore - N/A
Karas, Olivia - Freshman
Marinez, Lauren - Sophomore - UB, BB
McLean, Emma - Freshman
McPeak, India - Sophomore - (backup VT, BB, FX)
Sheppard, Austin - Senior - VT, UB (possible FX)
Williams, Lindsay - Senior - UB, BB, FX
Recent History
2015 - 7th
2014 - 10th
2013 - 7th
2012 - 13th
2011 - 6th
2010 - 10th
2016 Outlook
It's time for Michigan to make it back to Super Six. I'm putting it out there. It's been too long. The Wolverines got very close last season, much closer than I expected they would, and this year's team is at least equivalent to that team if not slightly stronger (perhaps a bit better on beam and a bit weaker on bars to even out?). They have the AA leaders along with the 9.9 specialist contributors to make a run at it, as long as they don't have another repeat of the viral meningitis breakdown that thwarted their exhibition meet this month. Develop some kind of advanced quarantine training facility, and this is a Super Six team. No question. The serious worry is the size of the team, as we learned from the exhibition. Michigan does have six strong options on every event—what at this point look like more complete lineups than the likes of Stanford and UCLA—but the well of backups is far from replete. They will be perpetually on the cusp of destruction should a vital injury befall them.
Key Competitor
Olivia Karas. Because the Wolverines have a relatively small contingent of contributors, they will once again be reliant on that same group of top AAers and three-eventers to provide the large majority of 9.9s. The significant change to the roster from last season is the loss of Sachi Sugiyama, and success in 2016 will largely hinge on Karas's ability to fill the Sugiyama role in each lineup and be a major scoring leader on at least three events. She was a star in JO and is very capable of being a star in NCAA, but unlike many freshmen she will not be given the leeway to start slowly or hide behind that flimsy "acclimating to college" excuse for underperforming. The team needs her to be great from week one.
Vault
Michigan's best asset on vault this year will be 10.0 start values. The team was fine (though not fantastic) on vault last season, but over the summer and fall, they have worked to develop a nearly complete lineup of viable, difficult vaults with full SVs. In many ways, Michigan will be the test case for whether it really is advisable to throw out new, more difficult vaults in an effort to get that couple-tenth advantage. It will be fun to compare Michigan's results pushing the 10.0 vaults to some of the teams that opt to play it safer and maintain a predominately yfull lineup. Which strategy works better? Are teams rewarded for playing up the difficulty now, or will execution deductions on potentially less comfortable vaults negate any SV advantage, rendering fulls the better choice? If you're a respectable dork, you're really excited to find out the answer to these questions.
Karas has been vaulting a high and impressive 1.5 for a while now, and Chiarelli is very capable of bumping up the difficulty on her vault without enduring much of an execution knock because of obvious Brestyan's reasons. I'd expect those two to lead the scoring, along with Sheppard when she is able to return from yet another leg injury. Sheppard is also capable of pushing the difficulty, but leg injuries, comebacks, and all that. Just get her into the lineup doing whatever. Casanova has always been pecking around the edge of the vault lineup, but stepping back up to a 1.5 herself should tip the balance in her favor and get her into that six. She (mostly) stuck her 1.5 in the exhibition, so that's an encouraging sign.
But that's not all! Perhaps most interestingly, Artz has learned a front handspring, handspring front pike vault that also starts from a 10 and should be a delight to watch progress this season. This is the one that makes me a little nervous, but I don't care because I love that vault so much. Even if Sheppard stays with the full, it's a fantastic full that will still be one of the best scores on the team, and these five should give Michigan a healthy start toward a great vault total. It's a potentially risky strategy by going for so many challenging landings in one lineup, but it's also an exciting one. In the final spot, I like Emma McLean since she showed a pretty powerful full in JO, but Brianna Brown did well last season with 9.800-9.850 vaults, so she'll be another realistic option, especially until Sheppard is ready. There aren't many choices after that, which is somewhat unnerving, but if they can get through this year using a combination of those seven without having to eat a low score from a backup, this can be a true 49.3-49.4 lineup.
Bars
I have a few more questions about the condition of things on bars this season. This is still a good bars team and probably a top-8 bars team, but they'll miss Sachi Sugiyama the most on this event because there isn't an obvious replacement waiting to take over for a 9.875-9.900. While there are enough options to round out a comfortable lineup, it's not necessarily a strength for many of them and 9.9s may be at a premium. Brown will be essential once again as the gymnast most likely to get those 9.9s with her superior amplitude and precision through handstands. She's the true bars specialist on this team, who provides the added bonus of being solid in the AA. Artz should also pop into the 9.9s from time to time, but the rest of the options look more likely to be 9.825-style contributors. Because of the two leaders, it's a lineup that still should be able get 49.300, if finding it a bit more difficult to get those 49.4s from last season without a final high-scoring piece.
Showing posts with label Talia Chiarelli. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Talia Chiarelli. Show all posts
December 23, 2015
December 21, 2014
#8 Michigan Preview
Recent History
Last year, Michigan finished an OK, if somewhat disappointing, 9th. They qualified comfortably to championships but failed to put up a major challenge for a Super Six spot. While Michigan was not one of the seeded favorites to advance, they (like Stanford) will have kicked themselves for not taking advantage of the upset opportunity sitting in from of them. The Wolverines ended up needing just a 49.050 on beam to make Super Six, but that didn't really happen.
Michigan has spent the last few seasons right in the mix around the 7-9 area in the rankings, which is just where the coaches have ranked them this year. Their best recent season came in 2011, Kylie Botterman's senior year, when they qualified to Super Six for the first time since the Elise Ray years, but that excellent performance was followed by a low point the next year when a combination of graduations and injuries left them ranked in the 20s for most of the season and unable to challenge.
2015 Outlook
Given the roster situation this year, with all those essential routines from last year lost and a few key players recovering from injury and yet currently ready to compete, you would be forgiven for having some 2012 flashbacks. The scenarios are somewhat similar, but even though it will be a tough season for Michigan, I'm not putting them down in the 20s. This team should be able to compete, and given what we've seen so far in the preseason and in past performances, I'd still pick them to make it to nationals without hesitation. Super Six will be a very tough ask, but that's probably hypocritical of me to say since I was optimistic about Stanford even though they currently have -3 healthy gymnasts. Michigan has enough people to make lineups right now, and that's a start.
One concern for Michigan (and one major difference between Michigan and some of the other teams ranked similarly in the preseason poll) is the number of 9.9s in these lineups. Most of the 9.9s from last season aren't here anymore, and the pressure will be on returning gymnasts to score 9.9s for routines that haven't regularly received 9.9s before. In particular, it will be down to Sachi Sugiyama and Nicole Artz to transform from early-lineup supporting players into anchoring stars.
Vault
(Beautiful vault, but let's talk about how one judge gave it a 10. False.)
Returning lineup — Austin Sheppard (9.945), Sachi Sugiyama, (9.870), Talia Chiarelli (9.815), Nicole Artz (no RQS)
Without question, Austin Sheppard is the star vaulter on this team. She was one of the strongest vaulters in the country last season and has done everything except get a 10 on this event. She's the 9.975 queen—usually more deserved than in the video above. Getting Sheppard healthy and back into the vault lineup is essential. I don't see the rest of the team getting much more than a 49.2 without her, which isn't a bad score but is at least three tenths below what the best teams will be recording. If Sheppard's usual vault comes back, Michigan will be much more competitive and much more capable of challenging for 49.3+ (or absorbing an early 9.7 if necessary).
Sugiyama and her 1.5 will be similarly critical. I really liked the idea of putting Sugiyama in the leadoff position last year (early-lineup difficulty is my favorite—it's harder to underscore difficulty and it also has the potential to push up the scores of cleaner, easier routines to follow), but without Sampson and Beilstein this season, Sugiyama's vault is so much more important than it was last year. Michigan in 2015 doesn't have the luxury of putting her in the leadoff spot. She needs to be deep in the lineup getting 9.9s.
A couple more strong scores will need to join them, and Nicole Artz and Talia Chiarelli are the most likely candidates. Chiarelli was getting a lot of 9.800s and 9.850s last year, which is fine, but not the Brestyan's vaulting she can produce. When you're a Brestyan's gymnast, your vault needs punch everyone else in the face every time. I need to be punched in the face this season. There are a few other 9.7ish options for the remaining spots in Brooke Parker and Briley Casanova, but a couple of the freshmen should see time here as well. Vault is not Brianna Brown's best event, but she can work a full, and Ilana Gordon could be a factor as well. I do anticipate a couple early-lineup lower scores this year, so it will be down to the big anchor vaults to lift up the total.
Last year, Michigan finished an OK, if somewhat disappointing, 9th. They qualified comfortably to championships but failed to put up a major challenge for a Super Six spot. While Michigan was not one of the seeded favorites to advance, they (like Stanford) will have kicked themselves for not taking advantage of the upset opportunity sitting in from of them. The Wolverines ended up needing just a 49.050 on beam to make Super Six, but that didn't really happen.
Michigan has spent the last few seasons right in the mix around the 7-9 area in the rankings, which is just where the coaches have ranked them this year. Their best recent season came in 2011, Kylie Botterman's senior year, when they qualified to Super Six for the first time since the Elise Ray years, but that excellent performance was followed by a low point the next year when a combination of graduations and injuries left them ranked in the 20s for most of the season and unable to challenge.
2015 Outlook
Given the roster situation this year, with all those essential routines from last year lost and a few key players recovering from injury and yet currently ready to compete, you would be forgiven for having some 2012 flashbacks. The scenarios are somewhat similar, but even though it will be a tough season for Michigan, I'm not putting them down in the 20s. This team should be able to compete, and given what we've seen so far in the preseason and in past performances, I'd still pick them to make it to nationals without hesitation. Super Six will be a very tough ask, but that's probably hypocritical of me to say since I was optimistic about Stanford even though they currently have -3 healthy gymnasts. Michigan has enough people to make lineups right now, and that's a start.
One concern for Michigan (and one major difference between Michigan and some of the other teams ranked similarly in the preseason poll) is the number of 9.9s in these lineups. Most of the 9.9s from last season aren't here anymore, and the pressure will be on returning gymnasts to score 9.9s for routines that haven't regularly received 9.9s before. In particular, it will be down to Sachi Sugiyama and Nicole Artz to transform from early-lineup supporting players into anchoring stars.
Vault
(Beautiful vault, but let's talk about how one judge gave it a 10. False.)
Returning lineup — Austin Sheppard (9.945), Sachi Sugiyama, (9.870), Talia Chiarelli (9.815), Nicole Artz (no RQS)
Without question, Austin Sheppard is the star vaulter on this team. She was one of the strongest vaulters in the country last season and has done everything except get a 10 on this event. She's the 9.975 queen—usually more deserved than in the video above. Getting Sheppard healthy and back into the vault lineup is essential. I don't see the rest of the team getting much more than a 49.2 without her, which isn't a bad score but is at least three tenths below what the best teams will be recording. If Sheppard's usual vault comes back, Michigan will be much more competitive and much more capable of challenging for 49.3+ (or absorbing an early 9.7 if necessary).
Sugiyama and her 1.5 will be similarly critical. I really liked the idea of putting Sugiyama in the leadoff position last year (early-lineup difficulty is my favorite—it's harder to underscore difficulty and it also has the potential to push up the scores of cleaner, easier routines to follow), but without Sampson and Beilstein this season, Sugiyama's vault is so much more important than it was last year. Michigan in 2015 doesn't have the luxury of putting her in the leadoff spot. She needs to be deep in the lineup getting 9.9s.
A couple more strong scores will need to join them, and Nicole Artz and Talia Chiarelli are the most likely candidates. Chiarelli was getting a lot of 9.800s and 9.850s last year, which is fine, but not the Brestyan's vaulting she can produce. When you're a Brestyan's gymnast, your vault needs punch everyone else in the face every time. I need to be punched in the face this season. There are a few other 9.7ish options for the remaining spots in Brooke Parker and Briley Casanova, but a couple of the freshmen should see time here as well. Vault is not Brianna Brown's best event, but she can work a full, and Ilana Gordon could be a factor as well. I do anticipate a couple early-lineup lower scores this year, so it will be down to the big anchor vaults to lift up the total.
December 24, 2013
#7 Michigan Preview
After the depressing, injury-plagued slog that was the 2012 season, Michigan's 2013 saw a return to form for a team that should easily be top 10 in the nation every season. In fact, the Wolverines wholly exceeded expectations last year. I was optimistic that they would return to Nationals in comfortable fashion, but they came quite close to making Super Six and, in the much tougher semifinal, would have been right in it with UCLA and Oklahoma for those last spots if not for a rough beam adventure (and we'll get there in a minute).
Eight routines from Zurales, Martinez, and Colbert have been lost since last year, and we can expect newcomers Talia Chiarelli and Nicole Artz to step into most of those roles, competing on a couple events each. Bev Plocki has also been touting increased contribution from Austin Sheppard this season to fill a few of those eight openings as well. When Brooke Parker transferred from Alabama, it appeared she was actually going to get to compete now, but at least so far she has been right back in the "great depth for our team" category.
Michigan in 2014 is still on the smaller side, relying on a few key stars, but most of the team members are believable on multiple events, so they can still be 9 and 10 deep on a couple of the apparatuses and shouldn't have to struggle to find enough 9.8 routines in the way we have seen at times over the last couple years. Much of that depth comes from the big senior class, which occasionally makes up half of the event lineups, so there is some urgency for this team to do something special this season while they still can. Let's explore a bit further.
Vault:
Vault was regularly very impressive for Michigan last year, the prime area that carried them to momentary #1 and put them consistently in the top 5. The Wolverines finished the year ranked #4 on vault as the top non-SEC team.
The scoring leaders were Joanna Sampson and Austin Sheppard, who both brought in frequent 9.9s with huge power and height on their yfulls, and we can expect them to be 5th and 6th in the lineup this year for similar scores. Sachi Sugiyama is a bit more frequently down in the 9.825 area than the other two because the landing on the 1.5 can be so much more challenging, but she is also a great vaulter who can and will get 9.900 at times during the season. Natalie Beilstein is the fourth I'm mentioning, but she would be anchoring many teams. Ditto about the landing on the 1.5. Nonetheless, for all four of these vaulters, 9.850 is a weak score. They will each expect much better than that every time out and can lead the team to 49.400.
Eight routines from Zurales, Martinez, and Colbert have been lost since last year, and we can expect newcomers Talia Chiarelli and Nicole Artz to step into most of those roles, competing on a couple events each. Bev Plocki has also been touting increased contribution from Austin Sheppard this season to fill a few of those eight openings as well. When Brooke Parker transferred from Alabama, it appeared she was actually going to get to compete now, but at least so far she has been right back in the "great depth for our team" category.
Michigan in 2014 is still on the smaller side, relying on a few key stars, but most of the team members are believable on multiple events, so they can still be 9 and 10 deep on a couple of the apparatuses and shouldn't have to struggle to find enough 9.8 routines in the way we have seen at times over the last couple years. Much of that depth comes from the big senior class, which occasionally makes up half of the event lineups, so there is some urgency for this team to do something special this season while they still can. Let's explore a bit further.
Vault:
Vault was regularly very impressive for Michigan last year, the prime area that carried them to momentary #1 and put them consistently in the top 5. The Wolverines finished the year ranked #4 on vault as the top non-SEC team.
The scoring leaders were Joanna Sampson and Austin Sheppard, who both brought in frequent 9.9s with huge power and height on their yfulls, and we can expect them to be 5th and 6th in the lineup this year for similar scores. Sachi Sugiyama is a bit more frequently down in the 9.825 area than the other two because the landing on the 1.5 can be so much more challenging, but she is also a great vaulter who can and will get 9.900 at times during the season. Natalie Beilstein is the fourth I'm mentioning, but she would be anchoring many teams. Ditto about the landing on the 1.5. Nonetheless, for all four of these vaulters, 9.850 is a weak score. They will each expect much better than that every time out and can lead the team to 49.400.
October 25, 2013
Freshman Meet and Greet: LSU and Michigan
In part 2 of the freshmanification of our general college gymnastics consciousnesses, I'm looking at the four new LSU Tigers and the pair of new Michigan Wolverines for the 2014 season.
LSU
Coming off a very important finish last year, half a point off the national title, LSU will be feeling quite confident about how few routines the team is losing and how much opportunity there is for improvement on that result. Expect this new crop of freshmen to do more than simply replace the few missing vault and beam routines. There should be enough quality coming out of this group of four to allow some of those nail biter routines from last year to become backups.
An important theme for both of the teams in this post is that nasty little wretch of a log, the beam. For LSU, I would feel confident in only Courville and Jordan as locks to return to that lineup. The rest of the spots are up for grabs for whoever can show a 9.850. There is room (and need) for some new blood. Let's begin.
The newbie with star power is Ashleigh Gnat, and she certainly has the familial pedigree for us to expect big things. She won both vault and floor in Senior D at JOs last year, so yeah, LSU recruited another vault and floor champion. We're all surprised. But what makes her such a gain is that, in spite of the few routines LSU is losing, she can still make the lineup on every event and be among the scoring leaders on several of them.
LSU
Coming off a very important finish last year, half a point off the national title, LSU will be feeling quite confident about how few routines the team is losing and how much opportunity there is for improvement on that result. Expect this new crop of freshmen to do more than simply replace the few missing vault and beam routines. There should be enough quality coming out of this group of four to allow some of those nail biter routines from last year to become backups.
An important theme for both of the teams in this post is that nasty little wretch of a log, the beam. For LSU, I would feel confident in only Courville and Jordan as locks to return to that lineup. The rest of the spots are up for grabs for whoever can show a 9.850. There is room (and need) for some new blood. Let's begin.
The newbie with star power is Ashleigh Gnat, and she certainly has the familial pedigree for us to expect big things. She won both vault and floor in Senior D at JOs last year, so yeah, LSU recruited another vault and floor champion. We're all surprised. But what makes her such a gain is that, in spite of the few routines LSU is losing, she can still make the lineup on every event and be among the scoring leaders on several of them.
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