Now comes the point in the year when we must attempt to wrench ourselves out of an NCAA mindset and pay attention to the elite world again. We're little more than a month away from Classic now, so the Mad Max remake that masquerades as the US Olympic selection process is soon to reach its familiarly feverish levels. "Do we actually need a bars specialist?" he asks, sharpening an abandoned femur into a spear.
As a bridge between the two worlds, I periodically like to take the results of past US elite competitions and examine how the gymnasts ranked at that point compared to how they would eventually fare in NCAA a few years later. Who rises? Who falls? Who is like the mousy girl in the high school movie who takes off her glasses and suddenly turns beautiful in the NCAA code? Who was using elite difficulty to mask deficiencies that are exposed in college? As we know, success in elite and success in NCAA do not have a 1:1 relationship.
Today, I have taken the various AA and event results from the 2012 Visa Championships (Visa Championships...feels so long ago. Like the John Hancock US Championships, which were basically contemporaneous with John Hancock) and bolded the gymnasts who competed in NCAA at some point after this competition (so I didn't include Anna Li since she's a category all her own). A number of items jump out.
All-around
1. Wieber – 69.650/61.250
2. Douglas – 60.650/61.050
3. Raisman – 69.200/69.750
4. Ross – 59.750/60.200
5. Price – 59.600/58.500
6. Finnegan – 59.150/58.450
7. Vega – 56.500/57.950
8. Baker – 58.050/56.400
9. Dowell – 55.7800/56.900
10. Sloan – 56.250/56.150
11. Milliet – 55.250/55.150
12. Brown – 54.200/55.500
13. McLaughlin – 55.400/53.150
14. Jetter – 53.550/54.850
15. Skinner – 55.550/51.600
16. Jay – 52.550/53.150
17. Wofford – 51.900/53.350
Fewer than half of the future NCAA gymnasts who competed AA at the 2012 championships continued to do AA in college (and only two or three of the eleven have been full-time AAers for multiple seasons), which helps illustrate the danger of assuming NCAA dominance for all elites. Those who continue at the same strength as all-arounders, your Sloans and Prices and Bakers, are the exception more than the rule. Instead, we have the usual random smattering of competition and success levels, ranging from barely-one-event status to best-in-the-country status. But what's of most interest here is the reason they're not competing AA in college.
We tend to assume that the biggest obstacle for elites transitioning to NCAA is health, that they all would be top-ranked gems if their bodies weren't halfway to the glue factory by now after so many trips to Martha's Texas Adventure. While that's true in several cases, many are relatively healthy but simply not making all the lineups. Even someone who counts in the all-around category like Brianna Brown probably wouldn't have done AA this year if Casanova had been available, and Brandie Jay spent three years not even getting close to Georgia's beam lineup, not because of health but because of "Aaahh, beam!" In her 2015 season at Oklahoma, Dowell was in a similar position to Jay. Sometimes, in spite of an elite pedigree and strong rankings through the age of 18, gymnasts are just not top six on their NCAA teams, even on events that were elite strengths.
In breaking down some of the specific rankings, I'm not taking Sloan into account much because she wasn't up to her full level during 2012, so this isn't really reflective of her standing in the elite world the way 2008 and 2009 were. It's not like Sloan was some middle-of-the-pack elite who suddenly bloomed in college.
Brandie Jay is one who leapfrogged many of her higher-ranked elite peers to become a bigger and more influential contributor in NCAA than she was in elite, finishing largely on par with the likes of Kennedy Baker, who was a higher scorer and more compelling contender during the end of the last quad. Jay is probably the best example here of someone whose dominant years were still ahead of her in 2012.
Finnegan is also an interesting case because if we were to judge her freshman year by the second-behind-Price standard that 2012 gave us, the 2016 season would be considered somewhat average and not the dominance and team-leading influence normally expected of an Olympic alternate. Yet, having gone through years of "does she do gymnastics?" in between, her three events of 9.850-9.900 and ability to leg-event at all this season are a somewhat unexpected and welcome revelation. A lot happens between elite and NCAA, and we don't often maintain expectations for NCAA based on elite results, especially for certain types of gymnasts. I don't think many would say Abby Milliet's NCAA career has been disappointing so far, but she's certainly not top-6 AA level. Even before Grace McLaughlin started at Florida, she was at "maybe a beam routine?" status, not AA-queen status.
A lot of this does come down to injury history/gymnastics style. We tend to maintain elite expectations for gymnasts with Raisman legs who look like they can hold up to four more years of gymnastics, but with the fragile-looking spinny twisties, we're just happy to see a routine at some point, even if it's an exhibition bars. We're like, "Good for her! I can see knees! She still has them!"
It's worth noting that there are no "whoops, I broke and then disappeared into witness protection without another word" gymnasts in this AA collection, which is encouraging. Everyone either made the Olympics and turned pro, did NCAA, or will do NCAA. The only one in the whole 2012 competition who doesn't fit into those categories is Bross. There are usually more.
Vault (one vault, two days)
1. Wieber 15.650/15.900
2. Price 15.800/15.600
3. Douglas 15.350/15.800
4. Sacramone 15.450/15.500
5. Raisman 15.450/15.300
6. Ross 15.100/15.250
7. Finnegan 15.000/14.900
8. Baker 14.650/14.800
9. Skinner 14.550/14.600
10. Jay 14.600/14.500
11. Dowell 14.250/14.700
12. Vega 14.100/14.500
13. Jetter 14.100/14.150
14. Milliet 14.050/14.150
15. Brown 13.950/14.100
16. McLaughlin 13.800/14.200
17. Sloan 13.850/14.150
18. Brannan 13.800/14.150
19. Wofford 12.000/12.200
Showing posts with label Elizabeth Price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elizabeth Price. Show all posts
April 27, 2016
April 13, 2016
National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)
Individuals are the worst.
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.
Bridget Sloan – Florida
RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775
Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?
Elizabeth Price – Stanford
RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675
If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.
Bridget Sloan – Florida
RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775
Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?
Elizabeth Price – Stanford
RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675
If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.
March 7, 2016
Week 9 Rankings + RQS Update
One more week of regular, normal, average action, then it's on to the conference championships, and then after that, it starts being actually important to do well. So close! With some schools taking byes this coming weekend like lazy garbage teams, we now know a few maximum RQS totals, so we can see exactly how high those teams will be able to rise. Or not rise.
The most critical ranking development came from the significant scores posted by Stanford and Nebraska on Sunday, rendering things somewhat less precarious for both teams. And more precarious for everyone else because now Nebraska and Stanford have proven 197 potential and are going to make some unlucky team very disappointed some day. No one wants a 197ing #3 seed. The problem for them is that Denver and Arkansas have also proven to be 197 teams, making it harder to move up into cozier, higher penthouse floors.
The Race for the Evening Session at SECs is also winding down, with Georgia currently on the outside looking in and trying to snatch Auburn at the last second. Oregon State also currently sits in 5th in the Pac-12, but Washington is the host of the championships this year, so this may get a little wonky. When Cal hosted two years ago, the home team's session was the evening one, even though Cal was in the B group. It didn't go well, but do we know if they've received the memo on that or if it will be more of the same? The Big Ten does things a little differently, putting six teams in the second session, with placement decided by the results at the Big Five meets this coming weekend.
In scoring news, it's March. That's all you need to know. The judges felt like they had permission to start throwing out the 10s like candy again, to least to everyone who isn't named Elizabeth Price. Sloan got another beam 10, Gnat got another floor 10, and McGee also got another floor 10, all gymnasts who have already received 10s on those events this season. Then in UCLA's own SEC-themed carnival of insane scores, Danusia got her first beam 10 for a couple years, and Brittany Rogers got her first 10 ever, just not on the event where she was supposed to get it.
As usually happens in meets like those, the craziest scores weren't the 10s but unjustified 9.925s and 9.950s that pushed the totals up and made the 10s almost necessary. That's why it was so funny that Price didn't get a 10 from both judges this particular bars routine. (I'm not as worked up about vault because it was not a true stick, in spite of doing the DTY. You can't decide not to see it simply because of difficulty, as many times as we've seen that happen. )
Sure, Price has done this identical bars routine four or five times and never received 10.000 for it, but this time is somewhat different because it's not like the judges were keeping themselves clothed and professional, even the particular bars judge who went 9.950 (and who also gave Sophina 9.900 for one of her Evel Knievel dismounts). They were throwing panties on every event for all the teams, and then...
9.975. OK? You're choosing now to have scruples?
Anyway, to the rankings! I'm taking the rankings down much lower this week for a look at who is in regionals contention and how close the race is. (It's close.)
Week 9 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.765
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.900
Road/Home Score 3: 197.775
Oklahoma keeps putting away 197 after 197 and remains safe at #1 until at least the conference championships. It's hard to pick at a team with these scores because while there are momentary issues like weaker vault landings over the weekend, Oklahoma is hitting us in the face with solid gymnastics week after week. The real question I have is, interestingly, about the beam lineup. Now, it's interesting in part because I always pretend to have a question about the beam lineup and then it always ends up being better than fine in the postseason because it's Oklahoma and beam. But then again, I look at Kmieciak, Lehrmann, Catour, Brown, Jones, and Capps (the recent six) and I think...is this really the team's best beam lineup?
2. Florida 197.580
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.525
Road Score 3: 197.075
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.875
Road/Home Score 3: 197.675
Florida gained some ground on Oklahoma this week after a crucially large road total, but it's a bit of a treadmill process when Oklahoma keeps getting just as massive or more massive scores. The Gators compete at home next weekend for senior night and will host the annual 198 party, so they cannot drop that low road score and catch Oklahoma quite yet. The real question this week is how much of a 40 Bridget Sloan is going to have on Senior Night. I mean the score. 40.000. I'm talking about gymnastics.
The #2 ranking is safe for now, and much of the potential to challenge for #1 will come down to what Florida can do at SECs to get rid of that peasant 197.075.
Fun fact: Florida has hit all six beam routines just once since January and hasn't had all beam scores reach 9.8 since January 15th. The balance beam situation vulture eyes are on all over the place this week.
3. LSU – 197.340
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.900
Road Score 2: 196.800
Road Score 3: 196.750
Road/Home Score 1: 197.925
Road/Home Score 2: 197.825
Road/Home Score 3: 197.425
The Tigers recorded a season high and used it to pass Alabama into 3rd, which is quite a solid ranking for a team that spent so much of the early half of the season significantly under-ranked. I see no reason to expect LSU's RQS ascent to stop considering that those two non-bold road scores are pretty pedestrian by LSU standards and would constitute a weak meet at this point in the year. Florida is unreachable until SECs, but there will be an opening at that point if LSU records a couple more big 197s. Traveling to TWU and then to SECs, it seems realistic.
4. Alabama – 197.325
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.550
Road/Home Score 2: 197.375
Road/Home Score 3: 197.175
Maximum RQS: 197.400
That 196.200 disaster against LSU was not a good note on which to leave the regular season, but with no meet next weekend, Alabama will have to live with annihilating my fantasy team and heading into SECs with the poor taste of sub-49 scores on bars and beam still lingering. The bars problem shouldn't really be repeated, although Jetter's double front is always a case of pass-the-stabbing-knife, but beam has been a case of the beautiful disasters this year, especially disastrous when some of the beautifuls aren't competing. Winston only did one event over the weekend. What even was that?
Because LSU looks very likely to increase its RQS and Alabama is capped at 197.400, it looks like the remaining score will be more about fending off the others.
The most critical ranking development came from the significant scores posted by Stanford and Nebraska on Sunday, rendering things somewhat less precarious for both teams. And more precarious for everyone else because now Nebraska and Stanford have proven 197 potential and are going to make some unlucky team very disappointed some day. No one wants a 197ing #3 seed. The problem for them is that Denver and Arkansas have also proven to be 197 teams, making it harder to move up into cozier, higher penthouse floors.
The Race for the Evening Session at SECs is also winding down, with Georgia currently on the outside looking in and trying to snatch Auburn at the last second. Oregon State also currently sits in 5th in the Pac-12, but Washington is the host of the championships this year, so this may get a little wonky. When Cal hosted two years ago, the home team's session was the evening one, even though Cal was in the B group. It didn't go well, but do we know if they've received the memo on that or if it will be more of the same? The Big Ten does things a little differently, putting six teams in the second session, with placement decided by the results at the Big Five meets this coming weekend.
In scoring news, it's March. That's all you need to know. The judges felt like they had permission to start throwing out the 10s like candy again, to least to everyone who isn't named Elizabeth Price. Sloan got another beam 10, Gnat got another floor 10, and McGee also got another floor 10, all gymnasts who have already received 10s on those events this season. Then in UCLA's own SEC-themed carnival of insane scores, Danusia got her first beam 10 for a couple years, and Brittany Rogers got her first 10 ever, just not on the event where she was supposed to get it.
As usually happens in meets like those, the craziest scores weren't the 10s but unjustified 9.925s and 9.950s that pushed the totals up and made the 10s almost necessary. That's why it was so funny that Price didn't get a 10 from both judges this particular bars routine. (I'm not as worked up about vault because it was not a true stick, in spite of doing the DTY. You can't decide not to see it simply because of difficulty, as many times as we've seen that happen. )
Sure, Price has done this identical bars routine four or five times and never received 10.000 for it, but this time is somewhat different because it's not like the judges were keeping themselves clothed and professional, even the particular bars judge who went 9.950 (and who also gave Sophina 9.900 for one of her Evel Knievel dismounts). They were throwing panties on every event for all the teams, and then...
9.975. OK? You're choosing now to have scruples?
Anyway, to the rankings! I'm taking the rankings down much lower this week for a look at who is in regionals contention and how close the race is. (It's close.)
Week 9 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.765
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.925
Road Score 2: 197.675
Road Score 3: 197.550
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.900
Road/Home Score 3: 197.775
Oklahoma keeps putting away 197 after 197 and remains safe at #1 until at least the conference championships. It's hard to pick at a team with these scores because while there are momentary issues like weaker vault landings over the weekend, Oklahoma is hitting us in the face with solid gymnastics week after week. The real question I have is, interestingly, about the beam lineup. Now, it's interesting in part because I always pretend to have a question about the beam lineup and then it always ends up being better than fine in the postseason because it's Oklahoma and beam. But then again, I look at Kmieciak, Lehrmann, Catour, Brown, Jones, and Capps (the recent six) and I think...is this really the team's best beam lineup?
2. Florida 197.580
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.525
Road Score 3: 197.075
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 197.875
Road/Home Score 3: 197.675
Florida gained some ground on Oklahoma this week after a crucially large road total, but it's a bit of a treadmill process when Oklahoma keeps getting just as massive or more massive scores. The Gators compete at home next weekend for senior night and will host the annual 198 party, so they cannot drop that low road score and catch Oklahoma quite yet. The real question this week is how much of a 40 Bridget Sloan is going to have on Senior Night. I mean the score. 40.000. I'm talking about gymnastics.
The #2 ranking is safe for now, and much of the potential to challenge for #1 will come down to what Florida can do at SECs to get rid of that peasant 197.075.
Fun fact: Florida has hit all six beam routines just once since January and hasn't had all beam scores reach 9.8 since January 15th. The balance beam situation vulture eyes are on all over the place this week.
3. LSU – 197.340
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.900
Road Score 2: 196.800
Road Score 3: 196.750
Road/Home Score 1: 197.925
Road/Home Score 2: 197.825
Road/Home Score 3: 197.425
The Tigers recorded a season high and used it to pass Alabama into 3rd, which is quite a solid ranking for a team that spent so much of the early half of the season significantly under-ranked. I see no reason to expect LSU's RQS ascent to stop considering that those two non-bold road scores are pretty pedestrian by LSU standards and would constitute a weak meet at this point in the year. Florida is unreachable until SECs, but there will be an opening at that point if LSU records a couple more big 197s. Traveling to TWU and then to SECs, it seems realistic.
4. Alabama – 197.325
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.550
Road/Home Score 2: 197.375
Road/Home Score 3: 197.175
Maximum RQS: 197.400
That 196.200 disaster against LSU was not a good note on which to leave the regular season, but with no meet next weekend, Alabama will have to live with annihilating my fantasy team and heading into SECs with the poor taste of sub-49 scores on bars and beam still lingering. The bars problem shouldn't really be repeated, although Jetter's double front is always a case of pass-the-stabbing-knife, but beam has been a case of the beautiful disasters this year, especially disastrous when some of the beautifuls aren't competing. Winston only did one event over the weekend. What even was that?
Because LSU looks very likely to increase its RQS and Alabama is capped at 197.400, it looks like the remaining score will be more about fending off the others.
December 22, 2015
#8 Stanford Preview
Roster
Chuang, Melissa - Senior - VT, FX
Daum, Rachel - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Fitzgerald, Taryn - Freshman
Frowein, Jenna - Senior - FX
Hoffman, Hailee - Freshman
Hoffman, Nicole - Freshman
Hong, Ivana - Senior - VT, UB, BB (FX legs permitting?)
Maxwell, Dare - Freshman
McNair, Danielle - Junior - VT, UB
McNair, Nicolette - Junior - VT, UB, BB (hopefully FX this time)
Price, Elizabeth - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Rice, Taylor - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Spector, Haley - Junior - FX (possible backup BB)
Recent History
2015 - 5th
2014 - 9th
2013 - 12th
2012 - 4th
2011 - 15th
2010 - 4th
2016 Outlook
Last season, Stanford did usual Stanford things: Start horrifyingly, slowly improve throughout the season, and then smack everyone in the face with bars and beam pretty once nationals roll around. I wouldn't put it past Stanford to do the same thing this year—with the Ivie/Ebee dynamic duo anything is possible—but without Shapiro, Vaculik, and Wing, the dynamic has shifted away from bars and beam to an extent, putting more pressure on vault and floor to be competitive scores. It will be interesting to see if the team can adjust. As always, the primary obstacle will be depth. There aren't a lot of backups on these events, so everyone + 3 other people have to stay healthy all season long. This is a clear nationals team, unless there's a real injury implosion, but Super Six will be a more challenging prospect this time around without some of those stars. And by stars, I mean Kristina Vaculik's gienger, the true meaning of Christmas. Expect the usual game of "197 or 194" roulette.
Key Competitor
The rest of them. The first and second person in each lineup. We know Price can get 9.9s on every event. Hong can get 9.9s on every event she's healthy enough to compete. Rice and Nicolette McNair can go 9.850+ on all their pieces. That's an excellent foundation with Super Six-level scores (if it were four up, four count, Stanford would be among the favorites), but Stanford's success will be determined by who is able to fill out the rest of the lineups. Are there at least two consistent 9.8+ scores per event coming from the likes of Daum, Chuang, Danielle McNair, Maxwell, Fitzgerald, and Spector? Those six gymnasts will determine Stanford's fate this season. The Cardinal got twelve 9.9s in Super Six last year (and eight of them have returned this year). You know who else got twelve 9.9s? Florida. Every other school got fewer. The only thing holding this team back was the contingent of supporting scores. There's even more pressure on them this year to be not a 9.6.
Vault
The new vault values shouldn't be particularly devastating to Stanford, mostly because of a little gem named Elizabeth Price. She vaulted a full last season coming back from injury, and because there was no incentive to do more, but obviously she can do more difficulty than that in her sleep. She's probably the best bet for #1 vaulter in the nation this year, and her weekly 9.9s will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup. It will be worth watching who else pulls out a 1.5 this year, with Danielle McNair and Taryn Fitzgerald both capable of it, but to varying degrees of success. It's not the sure scoring boon it is for Price, so we'll see if it ends up being worth it. Still, the options exist to be worked on. It's a shame Pauline Hanset missed out by a year. Maybe she would have actually been rewarded for her handspring pike 1/2 this year instead of consistently underscored.
Rice and Nicolette McNair will also return to the lineup and should be able to continue scoring in the 9.8s. The critical factor in filling out this event will be the potential refreshing injury comebacks of Rachel Daum and Melissa Chuang. Back when they were healthy, in the late 60s, Chuang could go 9.800 and Daum could go 9.850. Daum actually had a very strong 1.5 back in JO/elite days as well. Having those two back would be magnificent for filling out the lineup with enough believable options to allow the team to take it easy with Ivana Hong as needed and not feel the pressure to shove her out there on vault every week. I can't imagine they'd push Hong to vault more than a full at this point (because when hasn't she suffered serious knee injuries on vault?), but she still has a glorious full that can be trotted later in the year for big scores. Ideally, she'd vault the whole year, but let's be realistic with our Hong-leg expectations. Because of Price, this lineup should still get into the 49.2s with the occasional 49.3.
Bars
Bars should be the most...transformed event from last season because the team will no longer have Vaculik Gienger and Shapiro Toe Point to rely on to bolster the collection of 9.9s. Several 9.9s still exist (so the potential for high scores remains intact), but the problem is a fundamental lack of routines. By that, I mean there are exactly six of them. That makes it pretty easy to come up with a lineup but also puts the team in a really precarious position. No injuries, no falls, no margin whatsoever. Hong and Price are the go-to women, obviously, and are both supremely capable of scoring weekly 9.9s that will be necessary to protect against depth travesties. Nicolette McNair is also quite good on bars and should consistently be pecking around 9.9.
Chuang, Melissa - Senior - VT, FX
Daum, Rachel - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Fitzgerald, Taryn - Freshman
Frowein, Jenna - Senior - FX
Hoffman, Hailee - Freshman
Hoffman, Nicole - Freshman
Hong, Ivana - Senior - VT, UB, BB (FX legs permitting?)
Maxwell, Dare - Freshman
McNair, Danielle - Junior - VT, UB
McNair, Nicolette - Junior - VT, UB, BB (hopefully FX this time)
Price, Elizabeth - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Rice, Taylor - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Spector, Haley - Junior - FX (possible backup BB)
Recent History
2015 - 5th
2014 - 9th
2013 - 12th
2012 - 4th
2011 - 15th
2010 - 4th
2016 Outlook
Last season, Stanford did usual Stanford things: Start horrifyingly, slowly improve throughout the season, and then smack everyone in the face with bars and beam pretty once nationals roll around. I wouldn't put it past Stanford to do the same thing this year—with the Ivie/Ebee dynamic duo anything is possible—but without Shapiro, Vaculik, and Wing, the dynamic has shifted away from bars and beam to an extent, putting more pressure on vault and floor to be competitive scores. It will be interesting to see if the team can adjust. As always, the primary obstacle will be depth. There aren't a lot of backups on these events, so everyone + 3 other people have to stay healthy all season long. This is a clear nationals team, unless there's a real injury implosion, but Super Six will be a more challenging prospect this time around without some of those stars. And by stars, I mean Kristina Vaculik's gienger, the true meaning of Christmas. Expect the usual game of "197 or 194" roulette.
Key Competitor
The rest of them. The first and second person in each lineup. We know Price can get 9.9s on every event. Hong can get 9.9s on every event she's healthy enough to compete. Rice and Nicolette McNair can go 9.850+ on all their pieces. That's an excellent foundation with Super Six-level scores (if it were four up, four count, Stanford would be among the favorites), but Stanford's success will be determined by who is able to fill out the rest of the lineups. Are there at least two consistent 9.8+ scores per event coming from the likes of Daum, Chuang, Danielle McNair, Maxwell, Fitzgerald, and Spector? Those six gymnasts will determine Stanford's fate this season. The Cardinal got twelve 9.9s in Super Six last year (and eight of them have returned this year). You know who else got twelve 9.9s? Florida. Every other school got fewer. The only thing holding this team back was the contingent of supporting scores. There's even more pressure on them this year to be not a 9.6.
Vault
The new vault values shouldn't be particularly devastating to Stanford, mostly because of a little gem named Elizabeth Price. She vaulted a full last season coming back from injury, and because there was no incentive to do more, but obviously she can do more difficulty than that in her sleep. She's probably the best bet for #1 vaulter in the nation this year, and her weekly 9.9s will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup. It will be worth watching who else pulls out a 1.5 this year, with Danielle McNair and Taryn Fitzgerald both capable of it, but to varying degrees of success. It's not the sure scoring boon it is for Price, so we'll see if it ends up being worth it. Still, the options exist to be worked on. It's a shame Pauline Hanset missed out by a year. Maybe she would have actually been rewarded for her handspring pike 1/2 this year instead of consistently underscored.
Rice and Nicolette McNair will also return to the lineup and should be able to continue scoring in the 9.8s. The critical factor in filling out this event will be the potential refreshing injury comebacks of Rachel Daum and Melissa Chuang. Back when they were healthy, in the late 60s, Chuang could go 9.800 and Daum could go 9.850. Daum actually had a very strong 1.5 back in JO/elite days as well. Having those two back would be magnificent for filling out the lineup with enough believable options to allow the team to take it easy with Ivana Hong as needed and not feel the pressure to shove her out there on vault every week. I can't imagine they'd push Hong to vault more than a full at this point (because when hasn't she suffered serious knee injuries on vault?), but she still has a glorious full that can be trotted later in the year for big scores. Ideally, she'd vault the whole year, but let's be realistic with our Hong-leg expectations. Because of Price, this lineup should still get into the 49.2s with the occasional 49.3.
Bars
Bars should be the most...transformed event from last season because the team will no longer have Vaculik Gienger and Shapiro Toe Point to rely on to bolster the collection of 9.9s. Several 9.9s still exist (so the potential for high scores remains intact), but the problem is a fundamental lack of routines. By that, I mean there are exactly six of them. That makes it pretty easy to come up with a lineup but also puts the team in a really precarious position. No injuries, no falls, no margin whatsoever. Hong and Price are the go-to women, obviously, and are both supremely capable of scoring weekly 9.9s that will be necessary to protect against depth travesties. Nicolette McNair is also quite good on bars and should consistently be pecking around 9.9.
December 15, 2014
#10 Stanford Preview
Recent History
Stanford's recent results have been very much a mixed bag, the mixed-est of mixed bags. Since those very strong teams of 2007 and 2008 (the Tabitha Yim, Liz Tricase, Carly Janiga years), each year the Cardinal either finish a surprising and admirable 4th that few predicted (2010, 2012) or disappoint, missing Nationals entirely in 2011, suffering the Ivana Hong injury and limping to a semifinal 194 in 2013, or recording last year's fine but tepid semifinal 196.600 (with 49.025s on vault and floor) that whiffed at a legitimate opportunity to take advantage of an off day from LSU.
2015 Outlook
At its healthy ideal, this year's team appears closer to 4th place than a whiff and would seem under-ranked at #10. The roster should be emboldened by Ivana Hong's return after a long injury layoff and the introduction of Elizabeth Price, who is still one of the top all-arounders in the world and is the most impressive freshman in this year's national incoming class. They're the boost this team needs, and with many of the routines from last season returning, the amount of Hong and Price contribution will largely dictate how much Stanford can improve on that 9th-place finish from last year.
As usual, don't be surprised by some January and February 195s, especially as Price comes back from whatever foot-adjacent issue she has been dealing with, but in the end, Super Six is a realistic expectation for this roster. Anything less than that would be a disappointing finish. That's especially true because several significant gymnasts, namely Kristina Vaculik, are in their final year of eligibility. It's going to be harder in 2016 than it will be 2015. This is the year, at least until those other they're-going-to-Stanford-but-no-one's-saying-it elites arrive.
Vault
Returning lineup — Nicolette McNair (9.910 RQS), Rachel Daum (9.870), Kristina Vaculik (9.870), Taylor Rice (9.835), Danielle McNair (9.830), Melissa Chuang (9.825)
Stanford managed to put together a fairly competitive vault lineup last season, finishing 9th in the nation with an RQS of 49.325. They did, however, falter in the postseason with way too many 9.800s and 9.825s. One or two of those scores is OK this year, but it can't be the entire lineup if they expect to make those Super Six dreams come true. The good news is that all six postseason vaults from last year are returning, so there's no reason to expect regression and every reason to expect improvement. No, that's not the good news. The actual good news is Elizabeth Price. Because obviously.
Last year, Stanford's biggest problem on vault was the lack that one stellar routine, the 9.950 that can erase some wonky landings early in the lineup. They recorded zero 9.950s on vault all year, so there was rarely a margin for any bouncy landings. Price can be that stellar vaulter when healthy, and she and Nicolette McNair should be a competitive top duo for 9.9s. If the rest of the team can cobble together at least three more consistently 9.850 vaults, they should have a solid baseline from which to work toward 49.350s. That will keep them competitive enough so that they can shine on bars and beam. It's not going to be the biggest, baddest vault lineup from top to bottom, but it doesn't need to be a weakness this year. The rest of the returning vaulters should fight it out for the remaining spots, with Daum and Vaculik seeming the most likely given their performances last year, and Danielle McNair bringing the difficulty with her y1.5 for 9.825.
We all know Ivana Hong has an excellent yfull that can score a 9.900 as well, but in a career with two ACL tears suffered on vault, I wouldn't count on anything . . . Just give us a lovely bars and beam, and we have no right to ask for anything more.
Stanford's recent results have been very much a mixed bag, the mixed-est of mixed bags. Since those very strong teams of 2007 and 2008 (the Tabitha Yim, Liz Tricase, Carly Janiga years), each year the Cardinal either finish a surprising and admirable 4th that few predicted (2010, 2012) or disappoint, missing Nationals entirely in 2011, suffering the Ivana Hong injury and limping to a semifinal 194 in 2013, or recording last year's fine but tepid semifinal 196.600 (with 49.025s on vault and floor) that whiffed at a legitimate opportunity to take advantage of an off day from LSU.
2015 Outlook
At its healthy ideal, this year's team appears closer to 4th place than a whiff and would seem under-ranked at #10. The roster should be emboldened by Ivana Hong's return after a long injury layoff and the introduction of Elizabeth Price, who is still one of the top all-arounders in the world and is the most impressive freshman in this year's national incoming class. They're the boost this team needs, and with many of the routines from last season returning, the amount of Hong and Price contribution will largely dictate how much Stanford can improve on that 9th-place finish from last year.
As usual, don't be surprised by some January and February 195s, especially as Price comes back from whatever foot-adjacent issue she has been dealing with, but in the end, Super Six is a realistic expectation for this roster. Anything less than that would be a disappointing finish. That's especially true because several significant gymnasts, namely Kristina Vaculik, are in their final year of eligibility. It's going to be harder in 2016 than it will be 2015. This is the year, at least until those other they're-going-to-Stanford-but-no-one's-saying-it elites arrive.
Vault
Returning lineup — Nicolette McNair (9.910 RQS), Rachel Daum (9.870), Kristina Vaculik (9.870), Taylor Rice (9.835), Danielle McNair (9.830), Melissa Chuang (9.825)
Stanford managed to put together a fairly competitive vault lineup last season, finishing 9th in the nation with an RQS of 49.325. They did, however, falter in the postseason with way too many 9.800s and 9.825s. One or two of those scores is OK this year, but it can't be the entire lineup if they expect to make those Super Six dreams come true. The good news is that all six postseason vaults from last year are returning, so there's no reason to expect regression and every reason to expect improvement. No, that's not the good news. The actual good news is Elizabeth Price. Because obviously.
Last year, Stanford's biggest problem on vault was the lack that one stellar routine, the 9.950 that can erase some wonky landings early in the lineup. They recorded zero 9.950s on vault all year, so there was rarely a margin for any bouncy landings. Price can be that stellar vaulter when healthy, and she and Nicolette McNair should be a competitive top duo for 9.9s. If the rest of the team can cobble together at least three more consistently 9.850 vaults, they should have a solid baseline from which to work toward 49.350s. That will keep them competitive enough so that they can shine on bars and beam. It's not going to be the biggest, baddest vault lineup from top to bottom, but it doesn't need to be a weakness this year. The rest of the returning vaulters should fight it out for the remaining spots, with Daum and Vaculik seeming the most likely given their performances last year, and Danielle McNair bringing the difficulty with her y1.5 for 9.825.
We all know Ivana Hong has an excellent yfull that can score a 9.900 as well, but in a career with two ACL tears suffered on vault, I wouldn't count on anything . . . Just give us a lovely bars and beam, and we have no right to ask for anything more.
October 24, 2014
Freshman Notes: LSU, Stanford, Nebraska
It's that time of year again. Time to meet some of the brand new characters who will be joining the cast of The Calm and the Confident for the 2015 competition season. Fingers crossed that someone has an amnesiac twin we don't know about yet.
Once December rolls around, I'll preview the top teams in full, but for now, let's at least familiarize ourselves with all these newbies, starting with LSU, Stanford, and Nebraska for reasons that don't exist.
LSU
I still think that current co-champions Florida and Oklahoma head into 2015 as the clear frontrunners, but if you wanted to put up an argument for LSU, I wouldn't fight you. This is a big season for LSU, with Courville, Hall, Jordan, and Ranzy all in their final year of eligibility.
The Tigers have lost 6 routines from last year: the early-lineup AA contribution from Kaleigh Dickson and the frequently 9.900 vault and bars routines from Sarie Morrison. That bars routine from Morrison is the critical loss because while LSU has improved dramatically on bars, they still have relied heavily on Morrison to remain competitive with the stronger bars teams. That's gone now. (Maliah Mathis is also gone, but recovery from her Achilles injury prevented her from making any postseason lineups last year.)
But, LSU has two standout freshmen that should be able to make up the majority of the lost scoring potential. Erin Macadaeg competed as a senior elite in 2013, and while she didn't have the difficulty to make an impact in the standings, she caught some eyes for her gracefully executed gymnastics and performance awareness. Note: At Championships, she was one of 3 senior gymnasts to break a 9.000 in execution on beam, the others being Ross and Biles. She just missed it with her elite sojourn by one year. If she had competed this season, she would have been all over that selection camp.
Beam
Floor
As noted, LSU should be excited about Macadaeg's potential on beam as she tends to be secure on her acro elements and shows precision and mostly clean form, along with the power in that double pike dismount (which is staying in her routine for now). I approve of the amplitude on those leaps as well. Beam has been a struggle in the past for LSU, but last season a stellar three emerged in Courville, Jordan, and Gnat, with Ewing developing into a possible fourth solid beamer. Now, Macadaeg can make the lineup deeper. LSU should be right up toward the top of the standings on beam this year with the group they have now.
Once December rolls around, I'll preview the top teams in full, but for now, let's at least familiarize ourselves with all these newbies, starting with LSU, Stanford, and Nebraska for reasons that don't exist.
LSU
I still think that current co-champions Florida and Oklahoma head into 2015 as the clear frontrunners, but if you wanted to put up an argument for LSU, I wouldn't fight you. This is a big season for LSU, with Courville, Hall, Jordan, and Ranzy all in their final year of eligibility.
The Tigers have lost 6 routines from last year: the early-lineup AA contribution from Kaleigh Dickson and the frequently 9.900 vault and bars routines from Sarie Morrison. That bars routine from Morrison is the critical loss because while LSU has improved dramatically on bars, they still have relied heavily on Morrison to remain competitive with the stronger bars teams. That's gone now. (Maliah Mathis is also gone, but recovery from her Achilles injury prevented her from making any postseason lineups last year.)
But, LSU has two standout freshmen that should be able to make up the majority of the lost scoring potential. Erin Macadaeg competed as a senior elite in 2013, and while she didn't have the difficulty to make an impact in the standings, she caught some eyes for her gracefully executed gymnastics and performance awareness. Note: At Championships, she was one of 3 senior gymnasts to break a 9.000 in execution on beam, the others being Ross and Biles. She just missed it with her elite sojourn by one year. If she had competed this season, she would have been all over that selection camp.
Beam
Floor
As noted, LSU should be excited about Macadaeg's potential on beam as she tends to be secure on her acro elements and shows precision and mostly clean form, along with the power in that double pike dismount (which is staying in her routine for now). I approve of the amplitude on those leaps as well. Beam has been a struggle in the past for LSU, but last season a stellar three emerged in Courville, Jordan, and Gnat, with Ewing developing into a possible fourth solid beamer. Now, Macadaeg can make the lineup deeper. LSU should be right up toward the top of the standings on beam this year with the group they have now.
April 27, 2014
Notes on Things and Stuff and Things
A week. We've already had a week to recover from the non-stop binge of Yurchenko fulls and 9.950s that is the NCAA season. Just, what, eight months to go until next season? But of course, there will be much elite action to satiate us in the intervening period. For now, a few random thoughts on what has been happening.
- Elizabeth Price is off to Stanford for the 2014-2015 year. Kristen Smyth should put out a press release saying, "Boom. Nailed it. The end. Your move, Marsden." Price is the exact definition of what Stanford was missing this season, and I'm giddy for their team next year. Price? Hong? Vaculik? Shapiro? McNair x 2? Rice? Daum? That's a killer roster, but with great talent comes great responsibility. No one is settling for 9th place next year for a team with that much potential. If they can't win with this roster, when can they win?
- Price's decision to forgo elite possibilities in favor of NCAA in the middle of an Olympic quad is a rare and exciting choice. We don't usually see someone who is right in the conversation as one of the top AAers in the world and at the peak of her talents decide to go to NCAA, but that's just what she has done, which is great for NCAA and great for gymnastics in general. People often talk about shifting the rhetoric of gymnastic dreams away from the Olympics and toward the college scholarship, which is the true and attainable pot of gold at the end of a gymnastics career. That Elizabeth Price has elected to go to Stanford instead of going for Worlds (or beyond) sends a great message that it's not all about the Olympics. The Olympics are not the be all, end all of everything. There are other worthy aspirations.
- I had the pleasure of chatting with all-time gems of the world Jessica and Uncle Tim for this week's episode of Gymcastic, breaking down all the action from the NCAA Championships. If you haven't listened to the episode yet, then get on that. Where have you been?
- On Wednesday, ESPNU will be showing the delayed broadcast of Super Six, which usually contains several important routines that were missed during the live broadcast, so that should be worth checking out. But, to make sure we tune in, the competition will be preceded by "Sarah & Suzanne" an hour-long SEC Storied documentary highlighting the rivalry between Sarah and Suzanne (hence the name). I'm sure I'll have upwards of six thoughts about it.
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