National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)

Individuals are the worst. 

The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.

Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.

To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?

Individual Events


Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.

Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.

Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...

Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.

All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.

Bridget Sloan – Florida


RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775

Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?

Elizabeth Price – Stanford


RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675

If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.

Week 10 Rankings + Final RQS Scenarios

The final weekend of the regular season has come and gone, with all its senior nights, and crying festivals, and craziest 10s you'll ever see. We couldn't have asked for anything more. Hanna Nordquist getting a 10 for a wobble. Nicole Artz struggling through a beam routine, ending with a fall, and still scoring 9.450. Janay Honest and McKenzie Wofford getting the same bars score. We'll always have these memories.

This was actually one of the more normal ones.



What are you talking about? Bridget Sloan doesn't hop on final-pass landings during her last floor routine on senior night. Shut up.

Now, we sit on the cusp of the conference championships, just one week remaining for teams to resolve their horrible RQSs and make a push for a not-horrible regionals spot. Normally at this point, I would do the temporary regionals outlook if the season ended today, but if the standings truly do end this way, it's going to take some fancy figuring and rearranging to sort out the host placements. Based on current seeding, Alabama and Minnesota would be placed together (both hosts), Utah and Georgia would go together (both hosts), and Michigan and Iowa would go together (both hosts). So, that won't work. Unless things dramatically resort themselves after the conference championships, be ready for the seedings to get a little weird for regionals and depart from the traditional 1/12/13, 2/11/14, 3/10/15, 4/9/16, 5/8/17, 6/7/18. 

I sort of wish they didn't have to change because right now we have some really juicy pairings set up, like Nebraska/Arkansas fighting for a spot and Cal/Oregon State fighting for a spot. And then there's the Stanford wildcard. Bring it on. 

Anyway, let's get to the rankings. This week, I've included the maximum RQS for each team in order to provide a look at how high each team can potentially climb after the final meet. Toward the bottom, I have included the score each of the bubble teams needs to clinch a spot at regionals, if that's possible.

Week 10 rankings
1. Oklahoma – 197.845

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.950
Road Score 2: 197.925
Road Score 3: 197.675
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.900
Road/Home Score 3: 197.775

Maximum RQS: 197.925

With another gigantic performance over the weekend at UCLA, Oklahoma widens its lead over Florida, but while the season-ending #1 ranking looks likely at this point, it is not yet guaranteed. The Sooners can clinch the spot with a 197.850 at Big 12s, a difficult score but one that is clearly attainable. The other entirely cosmetic but fun benchmark to watch out for is Oklahoma's school RQS record of 197.895 (tied for second-best all time), which can be broken this year with a 197.950 at Big 12s.

The Sooners did a little lineup fiddling against UCLA with Kmieciak coming out of the six on vault, beam, and floor. It didn't end up mattering too much in the final score, but her replacements (Jackson on beam and Marks on floor) both had errors, and their scores had to be dropped. They're probably not routines Oklahoma will want to use when things count, putting a little more pressure on the good lineups to be present and accounted for. 

2. Florida – 197.655

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.525
Road Score 3: 197.075
Road/Home Score 1: 198.175
Road/Home Score 2: 198.050
Road/Home Score 3: 197.875

Maximum RQS: 197.875


With the senior-night scoring parade, Florida won the 198-race for the regular season, which is a thing now I guess. Florida could theoretically pass Oklahoma for the #1 national seed, but that would take at least a 198.050 at SECs coupled with Oklahoma not increasing its RQS at all. It's possible, but not likely.

Beam was Florida's weak event on Friday in spite of marking the team's first 6-for-6 showing in quite a while. Peyton Ernst was out injured, putting yet more strain on a group that has been somewhat shaky lately, pretty much all except for McMurtry.

3. LSU – 197.555

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.900
Road Score 2: 197.825
Road Score 3: 196.800
Road/Home Score 1: 197.925
Road/Home Score 2: 197.825
Road/Home Score 3: 197.425

Maximum RQS: 197.780

LSU has made a late run and is suddenly within striking distance of Florida for that #2 spot. It will take at minimum 197.325 at SECs, but both teams should be eclipsing that mark quite comfortably at this point. If both teams do go big and LSU beats Florida by a couple tenths, LSU could move ahead.

Priessman returned on bars for 9.925 last weekend, shoring up a somewhat questionable lineup. There are still a couple clear 9.800s that will pale against the top teams, but it's starting to look more competitive. In fact, the biggest question for LSU this year is once again whether beam, the team's most enjoyable and beautiful event, is non-terrifying enough to warrant a national championship.

4. Alabama – 197.325

RQS
Road Score 1: 197.525
Road Score 2: 197.300
Road Score 3: 197.250
Road/Home Score 1: 197.550
Road/Home Score 2: 197.375
Road/Home Score 3: 197.175

Maximum RQS: 197.400

Out of action, Alabama was forced to concede a step to the other big girls, and heading into conference championships, the Tide look like a clear #3 in the SEC. But don't sleep on Alabama. We learned that last year in pretty much the exact same scenario. And many times before that. The concern about Alabama right now is one of scoring potential. Alabama's high is 197.550 this year, a score we'd expect both Florida and LSU to sail past at SECs. Then again, Alabama is sort of secret-weaponing it this year. Have we even seen the final lineups? Even in the last meet of the regular season, those were not the lineups that should be going out at SECs unless there are serious injury problems.

Week 4 Rankings + Notes

That Florida gymnastics isn't marketing a shirt that says, "On Fridays, we get 10s" is ludicrous. Verging on lyyyyyudicrous. Florida's meet was the closest to a postseason-level performance we've seen so far this year (closest, but not there by any means), and now the Gators lead the rankings by a big, heaping margin this week with that 687.900 (because of Florida at home), highlighted by a "yeah, I'm down with that" 10.000 for Bridget Sloan on beam, a "squint...but also that Dos Santos" 10.000 for Kennedy Baker on floor, and a "Bahahahaha" 10.000 for Alex McMurtry on bars. At least she has a same-bar release this year.



Kathy is not OK with these piked giants. The judges are. The interesting thing is that McMurtry gets a heaping load of side-eye for this bars routine every time because she gets such high scores, but if she were going, say, 2nd or 3rd in the lineup and getting a 9.850 for this routine, we would be standing up and applauding for how much she has improved on bars from her Level 10 career, when she was getting 8s for hit routines. Compare her 10.000 to this routine from the Nastia in 2013, which scored 8.925, uninspiring even by JO scoring standards. Improvements, clearly.



But let's be honest, the biggest difference between 2013 and 2016 is going 6th in a Florida lineup. Many of the factors that got her an 8.925 remain, hence the saltiness about this 10.

And now Baker and Sloan.



Kennedy Baker is like, "This is the seventh-best floor routine I've done at Florida, and this is the 10?"



To the rankings!

Week 4 rankings

1. Florida – 197.438
Week 4: 198.175
Week 4 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.775; VT - Boren, Baker 9.950; UB - McMurtry 10.000; BB - Sloan 10.000; FX - Baker 10.000

2. Oklahoma – 197.185
Week 4: 197.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Capps 39.575; VT - Jones 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.900; FX - Jones 9.950

3. Michigan – 196.860
Week 4: 196.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Karas 39.525; VT - Karas, Chriarelli, Sheppard 9.850; UB - Brown 9.875; BB - Brown, Karas 9.875; FX - Artz 9.975

4. Alabama – 196.855
Week 4: 197.525
Week 4 leaders: AA - Beers 39.650; VT - Beers 9.900; UB - Beers 9.925; BB - Sims 9.975; FX - Winston 9.925

5. UCLA – 196.758
Week 4: Monday meet

6. LSU – 196.525
Week 4: 196.750
Week 4 leaders: AA - Gnat 39.500; VT - Gnat 10.000; UB - Finnegan, Zamardi 9.900; BB - Gnat 9.925; FX - Gnat, Finnegan 9.900

7. Utah – 196.342 
Week 4: Monday meet

8. Arkansas – 196.210
Week 4: 196.600
Week 4 leaders: AA - Wellick 39.500; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Wellick, Speed 9.850; BB - Wellick, Nelson 9.850; FX - Nelson 9.925

9. Boise State – 196.175
Week 4: 196.400
Week 4 leaders: AA - Collantes 39.475; VT - Stockwell 9.850; UB - Jacobsen 9.950; BB - Everyone 9.825; FX - Collantes, Krentz 9.950

10. Auburn – 196.080
Week 4: 195.975
Week 4 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.400; VT - Rott 9.900; UB - Milliet, Engler 9.875; BB - Demers 9.850; FX - Atkinson 9.900

#2 Florida Preview

It's almost here! False start weekend is nearly upon us, with Michigan, Arkansas, and Iowa off on a Cancun vacation with a gymnastics meet in it (1/2, 7:15 ET/4:15 PT) and Central Michigan getting started on Sunday (1/3, 1:00 ET/10:00 PT). For the rest, there's still time, but if you haven't yet picked your fantasy gym team, pull your life together because the deadline is Sunday. I really need to work on my draft order. It's a shambles.



Roster
Baker, Kennedy - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Boren, Alicia - Freshman
Boyce, Claire - Junior - UB, BB, FX
Caquatto, Bridgey - Senior - VT, UB, FX
Cheney, Amanda - Freshman
Dagen, Lacy - Freshman
Dancose-Giambattisto, Bianca - Senior - UB (possible BB)
Ernst, Peyton - Freshman
Fassbender, Ericha - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Frazier, Morgan - Senior - N/A
Hiller, Ashley - Freshman
McLaughlin, Grace - Sophomore - BB (possible UB, FX)
McMurtry, Alex - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB (possible FX?)
Sloan, Bridget - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX

Recent History
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 1st
2012 - 2nd
2011 - 7th
2010 - 5th

2016 Outlook
Three consecutive championships and a predominately (though not entirely) intact roster pretty much tells the story for Florida, a team that should consider anything other than a fourth title an unacceptable result this season. The two serious questions about the Gators' chances in 2016 concern their ability to replace Kytra Hunter's scores and the new coaching staff/absence of Rhonda Power, but with a freshman class talented enough to bring its own respectable bag of 9.9s and what is basically an all-star team of the nation's top assistant coaches now at the helm, neither of those would be particularly convincing excuses for not winning. That's not to say Florida is guaranteed to continue on the same not-losing path, but at this point there's no good reason to expect real regression.

Key Competitor
Alicia Boren. It is essential this season that Florida find a person (or combination of people) to replicate what Kytra brought on vault and at least come close to replicating what she brought on floor, along with shoring up an occasionally too 9.850-9.875 beam lineup. With Ernst in the process of putting herself back together post-elite, that responsibility will primarily fall to Boren. She's quite capable of being that gymnast, and her abilities on the power events should place her toward the end of both lineups right away. She is among the critical freshmen in the nation this year because without her replacing those lost scores, the Gators won't have the comfortable collection of surplus 9.9s that has led them to success—even on just OK days—these past four years and will feel the pressure from Oklahoma and Alabama.

Vault


Florida started slowly on vault last season, to some extent by design, but was ultimately able to deliver a 49.450-49.500 lineup replete with enough 9.9s to rank consistently among the top few vaulting teams. That should continue this year led by four vaulters who all look like reliable 9.9 options. Sloan, Boren, and Baker each have a 1.5 to keep the Gators at a competitive SV level, the most appealing aspect of these 1.5s being that they're not "possible, maybe, she has in the past" vaults like many I've discussed in these previews. They have them, and they're good. McMurtry appears to be staying with the full, even though she could do more, which is a sensible choice because her full is among the few that can still go 9.900-9.950 this season. Expect more stuck yfulls to score 9.950 this year because it's not THE TEN. The judges won't be as guarded about giving a yfull a perfect score because a perfect 9.950 doesn't stand out nearly as much as a 10.

Those four are locks and should keep this lineup on pace at 49.4 in spite of the SV decreases and loss of Hunter. Perhaps a half tenth to a tenth lower than last season, but not much more than that. The question is the remaining two spots, which were a bit of an issue last year and look entirely up for grabs right now, especially if Ernst doesn't come along right away. With this roster, they'll be able to produce perfectly fine 9.8s for any remaining spots, but the scoring onus will remain on the big four. Fassbender was borderline-lineup all last season and seems a fair bet to have a bigger role this year. As for Bridgey, she's pretty much always in this lineup but has become progressively more troubling on vault as the seasons go by, getting taken out of the lineup for a while last year and ultimately falling in Super Six. Bridgey's important scores are bars and floor, so if other compelling vault options present themselves, it may make sense just to take her off the event to avoid any issues. If the chance does arise, look for possible lineup upset bids from Hiller and Cheney who both performed quite respectable fulls in JO. 

Bars


The bars lineup remains the most intact from last season, so we should have pretty much identical expectations to the scores Florida received in 2015. Bridget Sloan is the Bridget Sloan of this lineup, always getting at least 9.900, then in line for a 9.950-10.000 depending on whether she sticks and whether it's one of her bail-legs days. Sloan is on a streak of 22 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.900 (and she was only as low as 9.900 four times in that span) and a streak of 37 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.875. She hasn't scored lower than that since a fall on January 13th, 2013. So she's OK at bars.

Sloan's #2 is Bridgey, who isn't quite as likely to score 9.9+ because she's somewhat less consistent on the landing, but she still reaches 9.900 pretty regularly. With those two hitting, Florida's bars shouldn't be scoring under 49.400 and can believably go 49.5s. For my money, this is the best bars lineup in the country. (Really going out on a limb there.) The interesting one to watch will be McMurtry, who has commenced Operation Haters To The Left in response to that time she scored a surrealist fantasy of a 9.950 in Super Six and we all got lost in a sandstorm about it. She's suddenly pulling out a high, well-executed Ray that exists now and could help complete her two-year transformation from "a little Brestyan's-y" to bars star. With the Ray and her dismount, there's no reason to think McMurtry won't continue getting 9.9s this year, especially if Jenny maintains Rhonda's lineup strategy, but we'll get to that more on floor.

#1 Florida Preview

Recent History
Winning. That basically sums up the recent history of Florida gymnastics. Being good. Done. For the first decade of the Rhonda Faehn era, Florida was the almost team. An extremely talented group that became sort of the cool, alternative pick to win a championship because they weren't one of the usual members of the big four. Then they would finish 4th every year. But following the beam-disaster-that-shall-not-be-named that was the 2011 postseason, Florida finally managed to emerge from the shadow of always finishing 4th. In 2012, they improved to a close 2nd after a heartbreaking and vaguely controversial final, and then, of course, followed that up with back-to-back titles the next two seasons.

2015 Outlook
After Suzanne retired and the Georgia dynasty ended, a few coaches talked about how there would never be another dynasty in college gymnastics because the talent is so spread out now and the level of coaching is so high. That is false. There will still be dynasties, and judging by Florida's roster this year and in the years to come, the Gators are a pretty good bet to do it. It's far, far from a guarantee (this isn't another 2013 where Florida can count a fall and still win), but Florida remains the safest pick to win the championship in 2015. 

The biggest challenge for Florida this year is the quality of routines they'll have to replace from last year's team. They haven't lost a colossal number of routines (it's not an Alabama or Michigan situation), but the significance of the departed routines from Alaina Johnson and Mackenzie Caquatto puts the Gators in the position of needing a bit more from their freshmen than other teams will. Florida has more new 9.9s to find than either Oklahoma or LSU do, but the freshman class of Kennedy Baker, Alex McMurtry, Ericha Fassbender, and Grace McLaughlin should be able to manage it. There's a hefty number of 9.9s in that group, enough to expect that Florida can stay on the same scoring track as last year, especially with the returning bag of 10s that Bridget Sloan and Kytra Hunter will bring with them in the all-around. 

Early in the season, keep an eye on bars and beam. Johnson and Mackenzie Caquatto contributed their most essential routines on those events, but the incoming class as a whole leans a little bit more to the power side. If they can find a way to effectively replace (or even near-replace) those bars scores in addition to beefing up the power events with new 9.9s, they'll have the kind of advantage that wins titles.

Vault


Returning lineup — Bridget Sloan (9.950), Kytra Hunter (9.945), Rachel Spicer (9.850), Bridgette Caquatto (9.845)

When we talk about the top teams, "weak event" is a relative term, but vault was the Gators' lowest-ranking event last season (at #5 in the nation). On vault, they were more likely to get a 49.400 instead of a 49.600. It took a while for the landings in the first three positions to come into line (a lot of big bounces for 9.800s), which meant that much of the scoring onus was placed on Sloan and Hunter to get 9.950s rather than having it spread out across the whole lineup. With Oklahoma improving on vault this season, it's critical that Florida do the same.

Both Caquatto the Elder and Johnson contributed vital scores around 9.850-9.900 depending on the control of the landing, but with Baker and McMurtry presumably slotting directly into those vacated spots in the lineup, Florida has reason to expect a net vault gain this season. McMurtry has the makings of a vault star who can rival the best on this team and the best in the country, and Baker brings the comfortable power that comes from having a very competitive DTY as an elite, but without quite the same history of shattered ankles as, say, Mackenzie Caquatto. Of course, leading the way will be Kytra Hunter with her 10-able, gigantic 1.5 and Bridget Sloan with her 9.950-able, similarly gigantic full. Those four exceptionally strong vaulters will keep Florida competitive with the top vaulting teams and should push them toward 49.5s.

The one remaining question about Florida's vaulting is whether they can get the same quality from the other two spots in the lineup. Bridgey Caquatto should be there, though she was among those who had a tendency to bounce for 9.800 last year. A few more sticks or tiny .050 steps would be a big help. The Gators will also have options from Rachel Spicer, Kiersten Wang coming back from injury, and perhaps more of the freshmen, but keep an eye on those early routine scores because those are often the real difference when every team can anchor with 9.950s.

Nationals Preview Part 4: Individual Times

Now that we've dispensed with the teams, let's take some time to enjoy the best individuals NCAA has to offer. The all-around competition doesn't get as much attention at nationals because the AA title is decided on Friday when the main focus is team qualification, but it's still always one of the most exciting parts of the event and worth at least several paragraphs of discussion.

I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.

For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.

Bridget Sloan - Florida

RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825

The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.

Rheagan Courville - LSU

RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750

Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.

Katherine Grable - Arkansas

RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725

Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.

#1 Florida Preview

What have you done for me lately? In April, Florida finally, finally broke through, climbing back from consecutive beam falls in Super Six to become the fifth team to win a national title with all the tears and confetti and celebrations that come with it, but that was eight months ago. The glory of 2013 is the past, the stuff of banners and trophy cases. Now, it's a new season, and the Gators are in the exact same position as every other team, a heap of potential trying to live up to its capabilities, starting at zero. 

The 2013 team was the most talented group of gymnasts Florida has ever put together at one time, and one of the biggest challenges Florida faces in 2014 is that the statement is still true. The 2013 Gators remain Florida's best, and the 2014 Gators will certainly and deeply feel the absences of Marissa King, Ashanee Dickerson, and Randy Stageberg in their lineups. The gymnastics will not be as big this year as last year, and there are places where we can expect a loss in scoring potential (places named vault and floor). However, as we learned at Super Six, Florida was a fall better than any other team in the country last season, so this team can afford to lose some big scores and still remain the atop the rankings and still be better than the rest of the teams. The margin does appear to be tighter than it was last year, though, which should make for a true postseason battle that doesn't need a fall in order to get exciting.

In making up for those lost routines, Florida will be getting some important routines back from returning gymnasts, with Alaina Johnson and Bridgey Caquatto both available in the all-around this year. The freshmen Silvia Colussi-Pelaez and Claire Boyce should also aid in this endeavor, and we can expect them to appear in a couple competition lineups and provide acceptable backup routines on every event. Let the event exploration begin. 

Vault: 


Of primary importance, we are all poorer for not having Marissa King's Tsuk 1.5 with us anymore. Civilization continues to crumble, and everything is just the worst. As a result, Florida's vault rotation will be 64% more drab this year, but on the bright side of life, the fact that King's vault was often woefully undervalued means that the Gators are not in as much of a hole scoring-wise as we might expect for a team losing such an excellent piece of gymnastics. Can they find a new 9.875-9.900 to slot in? Probably, or at least something close in the 9.850-9.875 area. It won't be nearly as impressive as King's vault, but the net scoring loss should be smallish, even if the net emotional loss is incalculable. Have I mentioned that I liked that vault? 

Balance Beam Champions Showdown

The floor workers have had their turn, and Brittani McCullough is pretty much crushing the competition with 44% of the vote to 22% for Kupets. Now, let's allow the best beamers of the last five years to have their say.

Who is your champion of champions for beam?

2013 NCAA Beam Champion – Bridget Sloan


2012 NCAA Beam Champion – Geralen Stack-Eaton
(It should be embedded at the right time, but if it's not there, Geralen's routine begins at 1:01:27)

Nationals Individual Capsules – It's None about the Team

Any list of the top five NCAA gymnastics cliches must include "It's all about the team," otherwise either you're not trying hard enough or you're trying too hard to be unique. I see right through that. For now, let's spend a moment making it not about the team. I hope you can handle it.

The main event of semifinals day is always the actual qualification to Super Six, but tracking the individual all-around standings can be a fun little side story. The 2012 AA competition was rather unique in how many legitimate contenders there were, with what felt like a million at least fairly realistic title pursuers. While there are a bunch hanging around again this year, I don't see this competition as quite so inclusive. There are just a couple clear frontrunners this season, and I have broken them down (emotionally) below.

I considered previewing the event finals alongside the AA, but the event qualification is such a crapshoot that I'm holding off until we know who has advanced. I could go through all the favorites for each event, and then none of them could qualify to finals. This is especially true for vault where I can count literally thirty people who could advance to finals. As discussed last December, gymnasts will perform only one vault in event finals instead of the usual two. This will serve to eliminate the Yurchenko layout parade, but it also probably ensures that the most boring Yfull will win over vaults with more difficulty and originality. One hundred points to any gymnast that goes for difficulty (safely) even if it costs her the title. 

In the all-around, Kytra Hunter won the title last year with a 39.725. I think it is going to take at least that and probably higher to win this year, so gymnasts should be evaluated on their potential to reach that level. While there are many strong AAers, there are far fewer who can realistically break into the 39.650-39.700 plateau.

Session 1:


The most dangerous competitors in the first session will be from (shock!) Florida, and defending champion Kytra Hunter is the best bet. On vault and floor, she has gone beyond being 9.950-capable to being 9.950-likely. This season, she has also improved her form and landing consistency on bars to make that event less of a weakness. Beam is still a little susceptible to wobbles, but if she hits it, she will be in the 39.7s again. Her 39.800 is the highest AA score recorded in this season. I wouldn't bet against her to repeat.

#3 Florida Preview

For the moment, let's all pretend that we live in a fantasy land where Florida is actually the #3 team in the country. Things will be more interesting that way. Then we can talk about how this plucky upstart took the nation by storm instead of talking about how the obviously most talented team acted like itself and achieved the #1 ranking. Regardless of how the season finishes, because no one can ever predict what kind of horrors and wonders will take place in Super Six, I do expect the Gators to be ranked #1 for the majority of the season. They are too grand and talented not to be.

In direct contrast to Oklahoma, where success will be cobbled together from every member of the group pitching in a little bit, Florida is a team of stars. While we will likely see one or two routines from outside the galaxy, the Gators in 2013 will be a small, familiar cast of seven all-arounders, each of whom would be the one star on another team: Marissa King, Ashanee Dickerson, Alaina Johnson, Mackenzie Caquatto, Kytra Hunter, Bridget Sloan, and Bridgette Caquatto. Put any combination of six of those seven gymnasts on any event and a 49.500 would not be a surprise. That's how good this team can be. A 198 (at least one) is attainable.

It's important, however, not to anoint too early. There are cracks. Small cracks, but cracks nonetheless. Say crack again. Crack. More than a few of these gymnasts have been felled by beam inconsistency before. We need only think back to 2011. More worrisome, though, is injury. This is largely a fragile bunch of elites, and it will be vital that the likes of Randy Stageberg, Kiersten Wang, and Rachel Spicer are ready to compete at the drop of a fibula. If these stars align properly, though, anything less than greatness would be a disappointment.

Vault:


The Gators don't have an event that can be considered anything near a weakness, but their success will be measured relative to their closest competitor, Alabama. If Alabama is getting regular 9.9s from every spot in the vault lineup as I expect, Florida needs to be able to match that (or come within a tenth that can be made up on bars). The opening 9.850s from Wang and Spicer that served the team well last postseason will make for comfortable backups but probably shouldn't be used in an ideal lineup. The goal should be a 49.500.

King always gets underscored with some nonsense 9.850, but her Tsuk 1.5 is made from clouds and liberty and hope for a better future, so I'd love to see her remain in the 5th spot out of spite, sending a little message that her vault is worthy of a 9.9+ every time. Hunter will surely anchor again, and I would not be surprised to see a 10 or two for her this season.

Sloan gets tremendous amplitude on her Yurchenko vaults (one of the main factors that stoked those perennial Amanar rumors), so the full should be quite easy for her and should become a regularly stuck vault for big scores. Dickerson and Johnson likewise will frequently reach 9.9 if they vault the way that they have the past couple of years. The sixth vaulter could very easily be Wang or Spicer without causing much problem for the scores, but Caquatto the Elder has higher scoring potential and can be that sixth 9.9 score. If there is any kind of concern about her leg health, however, I'd prefer to see her saved for bars and beam. It's not worth the risk.

Freshman Orientation: Florida

The biggest news of the weekend is Lexie Priessman's verbal commitment to Georgia for 2015-2016. It seems like an appropriate fit stylistically, although who knows how the tenor of the team will change under Durante, if at all. Priessman is currently on the Olympic track, so early verbals like this are always to be taken with a hefty tablespoon of squinting.

But continuing our look at the new friends who will be gracing us with their skills this season, we turn to Florida. Of the top teams, Florida should be the least concerned about routine replacement from last season, and yet the Gators have the most accomplished freshman class of the bunch. Recall as well that Aly Raisman was going to be part of this class had that been a realistic commitment.

Last season, the Gators boasted four excellent routines on each apparatus, and Bridget Sloan and Bridgette Caquatto could certainly jump in and make that six out of six on each event (and that is not taking into account a potentially healthy Mackenzie Caquatto because I still have questions about the viability of those ankles). There should be no concerns about talent level here; health will be the biggest factor.

Bridget Sloan

Vault


Bars


Beam


Floor

Certainly, Sloan is capable of scoring 9.900+ on any event. Some of the most accomplished elite recruits of recent years still have a weaker event, but Sloan has proven adept enough on all four (even though beam has been a struggle over the years, I see her making that lineup). If all goes to plan, she will be among the prime favorites for the AA title.

We don't know how things have been going for her since the elbow injury at Trials, and while she said that there would be a significant recovery time, there are no indications that it will legitimately impede her season. The biggest problem for Sloan will be that this is not a one-off injury. She has been constantly injured for the last three and a half years. Assuming that she is going to stay totally healthy for an extended period as a Gator is a gamble I wouldn't be willing to make right now.

Injury history is the usual concern with elites coming in to NCAA, but as we saw with Caquatto the Elder last season, the Gators are deep enough that they can absorb an injury to a top contributor. That depth only increases this season. It's sort of crazy that they might not even need a healthy Sloan to win the title this year.

Olympic Trials: The Wishers and the Hopers

One of my concerns over limiting the teams to five members was that it would make the Trials process anticlimactic if a clear five had already emerged. This appears to be the case this year. However, sitting back and accepting the preordained Olympic team of Douglas, Wieber, Raisman, Ross, and Maroney would be no fun. So here's a look at the three things that anyone with a conceivable shot at the team (besides the total locks) needs to do next weekend to stay on the current "team"/make the actual team/get into the conversation.

McKayla Maroney

1) Be less concussion-y.
2) Start getting rid of that .3 step on vault. She won't score a 16 at the Olympics otherwise.
3) Keep that double tuck in bounds. There's no hope now that they will change the pass, so she just needs to keep it traveling forward and not land 15 feet OOB like she should. She's way to talented to be a 1.25 event gymnast.

Kyla Ross

1) No falls. With her lack of senior experience, she will be dealt the "can she handle the pressure?" card at Trials. She has to prove that she can. Her position is the most susceptible to crumbling with a  poor performance.  
2) Outscore the other 15ers on beam. There's a bushel of Sacramones and Finnegans and Liukins who can also score 15 on beam. Ross needs to beat them to maintain the status quo.
3) Send Martha some flowers with a card reading, "International look. Love, Kyla."

Rebecca Bross

1) Obviously, fix the Splatterson. Imagine if she were hitting that dismount like she did in 2010. It would legitimately be a close contest between her and Kyla for that UB/BB spot. We should all root for that beam routine to come together because it will make Trials more fun.
2) Perfect execution on bars. If she's going to knock off Ross, she has to match her for execution. She's at a legs disadvantage, so everything else has to be pristine.
3) Repair broken brain. Thinking about the dismount has taken a toll on the rest of her beam routine as it looks more tentative than it ever has before. Watch for the connection between the walkover and the bhs+layout. Performing that fluidly is a good indicator of her confidence.

Nastia Liukin and the Classic of Secrets

I have been a bit remiss in providing updates since the end of the NCAA season because not much has been happening besides rumors and a trickle of partial routine videos from USA Gymnastics. I've also been spending a fiar bit of time working on my word and language blog, The Dictionary Eyes. So feel free to check that out and tell your friends if you're the type of person who has friends.

On to gymnastics, I was waiting to talk about UGA hiring Danna Durante until we got some kind of official confirmation, but they are taking forever with that. I would say I have a lot of thoughts, but I don't. This is a very middle-of-the-road, shrug-of-the-shoulders choice. I have strong opinions about everything, and yet I have almost no opinion at all about this, which is telling. Georgia would have loved to get someone with a strong pedigree or big name, but why would a big name take this job? That was one of my main criticisms of the Jay Clark firing. Who else is going to be better?

We'll have plenty of time to dissect Durante's every word during the NCAA preseason, but for now let's turn our attention to the elites and the upcoming Secret Classic.

Once Visa Championships and Olympic Trials start, we will be spending most of our time talking about potential teams and the likes of Jordyn Wieber, Gabby Douglas, and Aly Raisman. The Classic this year isn't really about them. All the major Olympic contenders will be competing at least one event, but their Classic results will be mostly irrelevant. We've seen enough from them already this year to know that they are on track. A fall from one of them would probably send the internet into a tizzy, but it would do little to derail anyone's momentum. No, this year's Classic is all about veterans and comebacks.


To be more specific, it's all about Nastia Liukin. She'll be competing balance beam at this event with a doubtful question mark next to bars. A bars routine needs to come along very soon for this comeback to be relevant at all, but she could save that for Visa Championships and be fine. Technically, I believe she would need a two-event qualifying score at Classic to make Championships, but come on. All qualification rules magically disappear when names are involved. It should be of concern to the younger gymnasts that even the very concept of Nastia competing is the most interesting thing to happen in US gymnastics this year. Reputation, personality, and presence go a long way.

While a bar routine with something around a 7.0 D-Score would be her golden ticket to London, let's not discount beam. She won't be able to muster the huge difficulty in the 6.5-6.7 range that we'll see from some others in London because she doesn't have any E+ acro skills, but she will be capable of a  very clean routine with low-6s difficulty, which would be useful in Team Finals. Kyla Ross needs to watch out for Nastia because if Nastia proves more useful on bars and beam, we could be looking at a situation where Ross is not top three on any event come Trials (especially because I'm not sold on the landing of that Amanar), and that's a very dangerous position for a five-member team. Nastia could shake up a lot of people's chances if she proves usable on beam at Classic.