This is the part where we're supposed to use a lot of nonsense sports cliches, I think. It all comes down to this. The best of the best. All in this together. Teamwork-sisterhood. Teamwisterhood. Lessons. Desire. Heart and grit and other terms that are ambiguous enough so as to avoid actually providing analysis or having anything to say. Montage beginning with a closeup of a sweat droplet to symbolize the hard work no one sees. Leave it all on the floor. Is that making you feel sporty and championshipy enough?
Well, tough.
Anyway, it's Super Six. So, try to enjoy it or whatever. Or actively loathe it if that's your thing. Utah fans, that's probably your thing today. We begin at 9:00 ET/6:00 PT.
Here is the rotation order, along with the semifinal scores for each team on each event. Once again, the highest score of that rotation is highlighted.
Alabama ending on beam, Florida ending on bars, LSU ending on vault...everyone always gets the same order. We all remember Florida finishing on bars last year because McMurtry, and Alabama had this rotation order in 2012, 2013, and 2014. UCLA also famously had this order in...2012? The year EHH went OOB in the first rotation and that ended up being the difference for the title.
The time is now. The teams are here. The beam is angry. The only thing we have to fear is everything.
The first semifinal begins at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT, so you'll be familiar with this as the moment when you start to get weirdly nervous, like too nervous, even though you're not one of the competitors and don't even have a vested interest in one result over another. And yet you're still inexplicably freezing.
By way of unnecessary repetition and...it's nationals today!...here's the rotation breakdown with team RQSs for each event. The highest score in each rotation is highlighted, i.e. the team that "should" win that rotation/gain ground there, but mostly just so that there are colors here to make it look brighter and therefore interesting.
Let this be your headquarters for all the necessary and wildly unnecessary links and information you could possibly need for the championship. But before I present the links, I have some truly terrible news. Nationals will be using statbroadcast for the live scores. Sigh. They might as well be sent by raven or etched in cuneiform on a tablet and then buried by the sands of time. We all need to be there for each other in this time of crisis.
At least ESPN is continuing the system from SECs and giving us both a TV broadcast and the four-event online view.
Going with the main TV feed and the four-event window seemed to work well during SECs. We'll still miss things because there are too many important events going on at one time, but now we have only ourselves to blame instead of the old "I CAN'T BELIEVE THEY DIDN'T SHOW HER, BURN LIFE," which is actually a shame. It's a gymnastics tradition. Where would we be without it?
Times are central, with semifinal #1 at 1:00 CT and semifinal #2 at 7:00 CT. Just know that it's your whole day. You will not be able to do anything else. These are the rules. Super Six is later this year than in the past, at 8:00 CT on Saturday. Oooh, nighttime. Spicy.
Semifinal #1, projected lineups and regional scores
Semifinal #2, projected lineups and regional scores
A few little nuggets of news have also been rattling around this week, significantly that Lindsay Mable scored the upset of the century by beating Bridget Sloan for the AAI Award, news that has been communicated in exactly zero places. Great job once again, college gymnastics. Seriously, there's not even an article on Minnesota's website about it. Anyway, it's kind of a big deal. I'm assuming some strategic voting was in place here that gave it to Mable instead of Sloan, enough people thinking that everyone was going to vote for Sloan, so they decided to throw votes at the underdog pick. Or people thinking that Sloan had already won everything and life, so why not go a different direction? Sloan got Streeped here, I think.
Yesterday also began the spring NLI signing period, which has become the annual Stanford and UCLA former elite announcement day. Stanford signed rare Canadian gem Aleeza Yu, who will fit right in because she's already in a knee brace. Welcome to the team! UCLA announced the signing of Felicia Hano to join the giant bangarang class for next year that will cover everything in sheets of gold and fix all the problems, including Kyla Ross, Madison Kocian, Anna Glenn, Grace Glenn, Schmuel Glenn, Curly Glenn, and Zeppo Glenn. Nica Hults was also supposed to sign for next season but is currently nowhere to be found. If you're thinking that's a lot of people, it is. Even without Hults, my current count of UCLA gymnasts for next year who at least were on scholarship at some point is Cipra, Gerber, Glenn, Glenn, Hall, Hano, Kocian, Lee, Metcalf, Mossett, Ohashi, Preston, Ross, and Toronjo. That's 14 people, so who wants to play a rousing game of Which of You Aren't on Scholarship Anymore?
Also, can Hano maybe vault tomorrow? That's probably allowed, right?
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.
Bridget Sloan – Florida
RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775
Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?
Elizabeth Price – Stanford
RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675
If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.
Without knowing how the semifinals will play out, previewing Super Six is like looking for shadows in a blindfold factory. Still, performances so far this season have provided a pretty good indication of which teams are in serious contention to win the title and which teams are simply looking to make Super Six/snatch a respectable finish if one of the top teams falters. Surprise, surprise, the four most likely title contenders are also the four top-ranked teams.
Those rankings exist for a reason. The ultimate champion has not come from outside the top three since the beginning of the Georgia dynasty in 2005, when Georgia entered the postseason in 5th, and for each of the last three seasons, the regular-season top three has also finished Super Six in the top three places. So while a weird upset or two in the semifinals could help the chances for a cusp team like Utah to get into the rarefied territory of podium-land, the four teams that should be challenging for the title of Superest of the Super Six, because you're all just super, are Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. The only other team that spent any time in the top three this season was Michigan, and that ship has sailed.
A rotation-by-rotation team comparison as to the pace they'll need to set won't be possible until we have the rotation order, although this is the draw for Super Six for quick reference once we know how the semifinals finish.
The winner of the second semi gets Olympic order, and the winner of the first semi gets to start on beam. Fun. The third-place teams are the ones who will end on byes, as by design.
Of course, to win Super Six, you have to be good on all the things, but rather than just go through the teams and say, "It would be nice if Florida got a good score on bars, and also beam, and floor, and vault. That would make it easier to win" (duh), I've assigned each of these four teams a critical event, not necessarily a "must-win" event because that's hyperbolic (and I never, ever, everwrite hyperbolically), but one that should be a massive strength, can't be a massive weakness, or is generally the best indicator for that team as to whether a title chase is really on.
Vault – LSU
LSU's ability on vault and concerted use of Gnat Power has made the Tigers the only non-Oklahoma team to occupy the top spot on any event to end the season. If circumstances play out the way they have during the regular season, vault appears to be the juiciest opportunity for the other teams to strike a blow to the Sooners since Oklahoma's RQS is just a pitiful 49.415 here. (Like, are you even trying?) LSU is the best poised to do that.
Difficulty has become the watchword on vault this year, though it has not exclusively dictated success. Among these four teams, Alabama shows the most 10.0 SVs with three 1.5s and an Omelianchik but is ranked the lowest of the four, while LSU and Oklahoma each show three 10.0 SVs and Florida shows two. In spite of performing the least difficulty in the group, Florida is ranked second on vault, largely by virtue of having the two best fulls in NCAA as well, but LSU has displayed the best balance of difficulty and stickitude to make this event the place where the Tigers can shake off underdog status and and put pressure on the more-favored teams with a 49.5.
The most significant contributor to LSU's vault success this season has, of course, been Gnat's DTY, which has spent most of the season in automatic 9.950 for a hop/10 for a stick, Zamarripa territory. It has been judged in an entirely different galaxy from Price's DTY, so one of the more interesting aspects of semifinal day will be seeing how Gnat's and Price's DTYs are evaluated by the same panel of judges in the same session of the same meet for the first time (Price wasn't yet performing the DTY when the two teams met earlier this season at Metroplex). Stanford vaults in rotation five of the semifinal, and LSU vaults in rotation six. The judges will not be able to justify evaluating them with different lenses, so does Gnat's score come down to what Price's has been, or does Price's score go to up what Gnat's has been?
LSU need the latter to be true in this meet and relies on that gigantic number for Gnat's DTY to get the vault advantage over the other teams. Another significant factor in LSU's vault score is Savona, who has returned from injury to perform her 1.5 again, though the landing control has not been there so far and her score has been dropped a few times. With one sometimes-9.750y vault in the lineup from Finnegan/Cannamela/Macadaeg, LSU can't afford to be forced to drop Savona's score in a Super Six context.
Who's lunging on a 1.5 for 9.850? That's the major question for all of these teams on vault because we've seen nearly everyone who has upgraded to a 1.5 in NCAA this year have moments of bounding forward out of it and making the team drop her critical score. The landing control for Jackson and Scaman accounts for the variation in Oklahoma's vault results and has created this opening for other teams that wouldn't necessarily have been there last year, as does Alabama's reliance on Beers' 1.5 in particular. She basically decides if the vault score is going to be competitive. Florida has the safety net of the Sloan and McMurtry fulls which can still get 9.900 and show less unpredictability in landing, but it's the Boren and Baker 1.5s that dictate whether it's a good vaulting day or a title-winning vaulting day.
Every time one of these teams throws up a 1.5, there is a legitimate one-tenth swing in the scores hanging on that landing, which is a dramatic margin in Super Six. These vaults I mentioned are going to be a real treat for us in Super Six because every stick is a gold star and every shoulder-width lunge is a kick in the stomach to title hopes. You can't get 9.850 on a critical, late-lineup vault in Super Six and expect to win. I anticipate a lot of "should she really have been doing a 1.5?" second-guessing once the results of Super Six are in. I anticipate it mostly because I will 100% be doing it.
Bars – Florida
This was supposed to be Florida's year to dominate bars, with 5/6 of last year's lineup intact including three near-guaranteed 9.9s, while Utah lost Dabritz and Oklahoma had to reconstruct its depleted bars lineup using nothing but kindling and double-sided tape. Florida has been extremely strong on bars this season but has not been the very best team. That title goes to Oklahoma for superior handstands and stick frequency. I was concerned about Oklahoma's bars this year because of what seemed like a dearth of options, but it's a sign of a top bars school that they have been able to take "don't even look at the bars" routines from Capps and Jackson and turn them into suddenly serious scores this year, much as Florida was able to do with McMurtry last year. For all of the light-speed eye-rolling we do about McMurtry's scores, her pre-Florida bars work was never-making-a-lineup-ever level.
Still, Florida shouldn't be letting this happen. If you were to offer me Sloan, Caquatto, McMurtry, BDG, Boren, and Baker against Wofford, Kmieciak, Scaman, Capps, Lehrmann, and Jackson, I'm taking Florida's group every time. That should be the NCAA's best bars team, and while second place is not a slouch position and 49.4s are not slouch scores, that becomes less true when you're trying to win Super Six. Second is no longer good enough. Florida currently doesn't have a first-place ranking on any apparatus, but bars is a mighty opportunity to win an event given the talent of this lineup.
It's little things that have brought Florida "down" on bars lately. Sloan's DLO used to be an auto-stick, and it isn't right now. Also, sometimes the judges say, "Stay with me on this one, but maybe McMurtry's bars routine isn't perfect..." Plus, Baker, Boren, and BDG can get a little 9.850 with their dismounts, especially because it's so hard to take only a .05 step on a double front like Baker's. Usually it's either a stick or a bound for a tenth. Baker possesses a great talent for minimizing her hops, planting so quickly that even though it seems like she's starting to bounce a million miles, she suddenly stops much closer to her landing position than it seemed like she would be, forcing the judges to make a decision about how significant her lack of control really was. Still, her score can go down to 9.800-9.850 depending on the dismount in a snap, and Florida can't tolerate any of these little issues when trying to beat Oklahoma on bars.
Every year. Every year it's the same. One semifinal looks like it's going to be close and exciting and weird and controversial, and the other looks like a straightforward stroll through the local meadow in a world made only of springtime. Except, it never really works out that way. Take last year's second semifinal, when Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama squared off against Auburn, Nebraska, and Oregon State. "Ah ha ha," we said. "Bring me another glass of port. Oklahoma, LSU, and Alabama will surely advance."
Nope. The infamous freshman-lost-her-mind heard 'round the world saw Auburn qualify instead of LSU. Nebraska managed to produce a similar complication the year before, against many of the same teams we see gathered this year. Almost all of them. I know. The straightforward semifinal tends to have a way of getting our attention, so how confident do we feel that Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah will emerge from this session? What tricks do the Bruins have planned for us? Whom will they exhume to perform a surprise routine this time?
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bye before floor)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[5] Utah (vault)
[8] UCLA (bars)
[10] Cal (beam)
[12] Nebraska (floor)
Vault – Taylor Allex, Arizona State Beam – Risa Perez, Oregon State; Shani Remme, Boise State Floor – Lizzy Leduc, Illinois; Rachel Slocum, Eastern Michigan
Though three clear favorites have established themselves in this group, it's not quite as meadow-like as some of the "easy" semifinals have been in past years. Alabama and Utah did not perform overwhelmingly at regionals, and UCLA absolutely possesses the talent to advance on a good day. Something I hadn't realized until now: Since the advent of Super Six, UCLA has never gone three straight seasons without qualifying. Having missed out on Super Six the last two years, the Bruins are in line to make an unfortunate piece of history if they don't secure the upset this time around. #saveuskyla
Let's get to it.
OKLAHOMA
The Sooners have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the teams in recent weeks, not showing the same variations in performance, blips, and inconsistencies of the other top contenders. Oklahoma's regionals score was the highest in the country by a pretty solid margin and the performance was by far the cleanest.
Oklahoma must be the title favorite at this point but far from a prohibitive one. Several areas have emerged, from security of vault landings to floor difficulty, that may be cause for concern in a Super Six context when needing to defeat the likes of Florida, but for now, Oklahoma is the safest pick. If the Sooners were to lose it at the semifinal stage, it would be the biggest upset of any of the teams. Oklahoma hasn't had a singlefall in a competition routine since February 7th and hasn't seen two actual falls in the same rotation all season long. That's a rather remarkable feat, so while we can question some of the details, Oklahoma would have to count a fall to fail to emerge from this semifinal. And that would be a first.
I'll go into detail in the Super Six preview, but a critical area I'll be watching in the semifinal is how those early-lineup floor routines are evaluated, especially with the Sooners starting on that event. At regionals, Brown and Capps pretty much nailed their routines and got 9.850s (and Jones performed somewhat near her normal for a 9.800), but Oklahoma is going to need higher scores for those routines to reach a national-championship-winning total. The last four winners (counting Florida and Oklahoma in 2014 as two different winners) have all scored over 49.6 on floor in Super Six. Given the evaluation of floor this season, I imagine that will be the standard once again.
ALABAMA and UTAH
Alabama and Utah were twinsies on regionals day, each scoring 197.125 at a home regional. Alabama had some flopsy moments on beam and got hit by the bars landings monster, while Utah was sort of fine across the board but will need better vault and floor landings come nationals. Both exposed patches of minor concern and showed just four 9.9s (all of Alabama's coming on floor), which isn't enough for championships to be sure about fending off other 197-capable teams.
Bars landings. When both these teams have recorded significant results this season, they have done so by sticking bars dismounts. Alabama broke 49.5 on bars both during the landslide against Georgia and at SECs, as did Utah during its own win against Georgia for a season high 197.675. Aside from floor (for floor reasons), bars should be the next-highest score for both teams. Alabama has proven 9.950-for-sticks from Winston and Brannan, but also has those high-risk dismounts from Beers and Jetter that we've all seen dancing with the devil from time to time. The Tide cannot afford 9.800 for those routines at nationals. Bars is too important.
A big bars score is especially significant for all the top seeds because the most likely challenger is UCLA, and UCLA's bars rotation usually hovers somewhere between "well..." and "ack." Alabama and Utah will both look to rack up a significant edge solely because of bars so that if UCLA does end up having one of those great beam and floor days to get up into the 197s, there's still a buffer.
Gather round, darling children, and learn about the NCAA national championship, a far-off magical land where all the most glorious gymnasts assemble in an arena made of gumdrops and frozen tears for a battle royale to see who can force the biggest fake smile after her teammate falls on beam. It's always a really close contest.
As is only traditional, let's begin at the start. The first of the two semifinals will take place in the void between the dimensions on April 15th at 2:00 ET/11:00 PT and should be a doozy.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before floor)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[6] Auburn (vault)
[9] Georgia (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[18] Stanford (bars)
An argument can be made for five of these six teams advancing without having to concoct very many insane circumstances at all (sorry, Minnesota, but it would take a splatfest from the others). The big five should all expect to score into the 197s and will be disappointed by anything less than that. Even though we see 197s fall all over the place during the regular season, it's not a given that the challenging teams will reach that plateau in this meet as scores tend to tighten at nationals (tend being the operative word). The highest score that has ever failed to advance from a semifinal is 197.025, an ignominious mark shared by Utah 2014 and Michigan 2015. That's not a particularly impressive score these days during the regular season, but 197 remains a thing at the national championship.
To some extent, we're in the dark about how scoring will play out in the semifinals because we're entering a whole new era. Starting this year, six judges will work each event beginning with the semifinals. Will that depress the scores? Possibly. That's two more whole people who have to be slipped a roll of cash under the bathroom door, which is a lot of work. I'm exhausted just thinking about it.
This was instituted in an attempt to prevent a heap of ties for event winners now that those titles will be decided on Friday as well, and in case you're wondering, it's terrible. Theoretically, having more judges and more oversight for scores at the most important meet is a great idea, but this is also going to result in a ton of really ugly-decimal scores that will be inconsistent with the round-number scores we've seen all season long. It's the most unappealing thing I've ever heard. I just want to buy a crate of apples and stab them all about it.
So...to the teams!
FLORIDA and LSU
Closer to nationals, I'll do a Super Six preview, which is ludicrous to do before we know who has qualified to Super Six but when has this blog ever been unludicrous? I'll save a more detailed discussion of Florida and LSU and how they match up against the other title contenders for that preview since they should both be in the mix. Of course, there's still the semifinal to get through, and counting a fall could ruin the year for any team at this point, but these two are the clear favorites to emerge from this semifinal. If either doesn't make it, it's an upset. For the rest of the teams in this group, it isn't.
Florida looked distinctly meh at regionals, and while that's a near-annual tradition that shouldn't necessarily indicate anything real, the score was a far-from-peak 196.725. I'm not expecting a 196.725 to make Super Six. By contrast, Florida also looked a little meh at regionals last year, but the score was still 197.475. Just a sliver of doubt begins to creep in, though I would be surprised by a repeat of those weak landings once we get to nationals. Another significant contributor to Florida's low score was the Kennedy Baker ankle situation. She landed short on her double pike on floor and was pulled from vault as a precaution, and with normal hits from her on those events, Florida is close to—if not at—197 already, even with the same blah landings. Baker is essential to Florida's title hopes, so the amount that ankle does/does not affect her will be a critical storyline on semifinal day.
LSU did not have the same issues as Florida at regionals, comfortably breaking 197 and sliding through to qualification without a question. Very reassuring. Except nothing is reassuring ever. Most doubts as to LSU's ability to fulfill expectations this year are based on traumatic flashbacks to last season, when the Tigers were in an essentially identical position and seemed a sure qualifier to Super Six until three falls on beam happened. It didn't come out of the blue last year. LSU had an iffy but manageable beam performance at regionals right before, which is why that 9.6 and 9.7 action from this year's regionals did not help alleviate any of those flashbacks.
Still, this is prognostication about the likelihood of counting falls, which is a fool's game, but that's what it would take to knock Florida or LSU out of this. Based on the quality of the gymnastics we've seen this season, both of these teams should be in the hit-and-advance category. Elimination with a hit meet would be a massive shock.
AUBURN v. GEORGIA v. STANFORD
Basically, I could copy-and-paste the "Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford" section from the regional previews here and just replace the word Michigan with Georgia. It would be upsettingly accurate and appropriate, hearkening back to some of my frustrations with the repetitiveness of the current postseason assignments. We more or less just did this, and if everything goes to plan, it will be these three teams facing off against each other, only now it's a fight for one spot instead of two. The comparison is particularly congruent because Michigan was thwarted by the beam at regionals, and Georgia is Georgia. Just swap one for the other.
As I said then, I still consider Stanford the challenger of the group rather than a likely qualifier because of those weaknesses on vault and floor. Everything worked out at regionals because bars and beam came through as they were supposed to and the other teams had errors, but at some point relying on just two events won't be enough. Still, if Stanford's first-place tie at regionals taught us anything, it's that this is more than possible. Georgia misses beam, Auburn repeats its uninspiring regionals performance, and hello Stanford once again.
The extended frigid hellscape that was regionals day is now squarely behind us, with all the Michigan tears and Stanford celebration dances accounted for, and if you were able to emerge from that 58-millenium barrage of meets and marathon of interminable bye rotations without passing out and deciding that you hate gymnastics now, you're the winner.
For a recap of all the action you may have missed, or seen, or intentionally got amnesia about, or found infuriating, be sure to listen to this week's episode of Gymcastic. I join Jessica and Uncle Tim to go through the day regional by regional to speculate about whether the Iowa regional was judged by three lemons and the concept of winter, argue over the merits of the handspring-onto-the-springboard vault, and warn that in spite of what you may have heard from your friends, the Stanford Rhythm Method is not a reliable form of making nationals. Among other topics. Get ready.
For the moment, let's look toward nationals. We know our semifinalists, and the rotation order has been released, so it's time to get a-speculatin'.
It was probably going to be the case anyway, but the Michigan upset has left what looks to be a golden opportunity for several teams to snatch the third spot out of the first semifinal, assuming that Florida and LSU are the favorites. After all the terrors of this season, has Georgia become the pick to advance? The Gymdogs get to start on beam again. Nothing like a high-budget dystopian horror comedy to start the day. But they hit beam at regionals! Kind of! They did enough! Hooray!
Few of the rotation assignments jump out as particularly disastrous for any of these teams, though I do think that Stanford benefited from finishing on its good events at regionals and will have the opposite order here, starting with events that need to score massively and finishing on events that are unlikely to. Stanford will need the judges to be willing to flash the 9.900-9.950s right from the first routine of the first session because Stanford really must get 49.5s on bars and beam.
In the coming days, I'll delve into more detailed prognostication about the semifinals, Super Six, and whether we even care about the individual competitions anymore, but for today, let's set things up with a glance at the numbers. Which are the key events to watch if we're looking for an upset? And who's capable of pulling it off? Categories in which a team places in the top three in the session (a qualifying spot) are highlighted.
FX regional score: 49.075 [4] FX RQS: 49.505 [2] FX average: 49.405 [2] FX season high: 49.675 [2]
Florida should be the heaviest favorite in the first semifinal and settles in comfortably in the top three here in every category except those pertaining to that lackluster regionals performance. It's worth treating as just an odd blip for now that shouldn't compromise our expectations of Florida making it out of this semifinal safely and easily, but it doesn't help in the race to catch Oklahoma.
Two weeks have already passed since National Championships. How did that happen?
Florida wins the title after being the best team all year. At this point, I have enough distance from the event to thank them for counting a fall on beam because it made everything much more interesting. We can safely (and finally) declare the era of the Big Four over, which has been the unofficial case for years now anyway. Oklahoma is now the best team never to have won a title. Will the call for more teams winning championships drop off now that Florida has won, or will it continue with Oklahoma as the new standard bearer? Five teams is still not that many.
At nationals, a number of the scores were wackadoo, but in general I would classify them as normal wackadoo. Original recipe wackadoo. A couple of the floor scores in Super Six were hyperwackadoo, but they were the exceptions. Slightly more troubling were some of the ranges on scores (primarily scores that ended up being fine because the extreme scores were dropped). There is always going to be crazy scoring in a subjective sport, especially in NCAA gymnastics where the subjectivity is compounded by a somewhat amorphous code of expectations as to which factors get evaluated and which don't. ("What's a flexed foot?" they asked innocently.) I've always argued that efforts in any level of gymnastics to make skill and routine evaluation more objective and straightforward do more harm than good, like Nellie Kim's decision that awkward, pointed-toe running = a satisfactory level of artistry. The judges do, however, need to be on the same page. I don't care if you're crazy, but you all need to be crazy at the same rate.
Event finals should be renamed "Oh . . . right. Event finals." The forgotten step-third cousin of nationals, the event finals are mostly an afterthought, a competition barely even considered until the morning of the event. That's what makes it fun and super silly.
Today, some have an opportunity to salvage a degree of positivity after a disappointing competition, but mostly, today's events are an opportunity to put on one last show. Hopefully, the gymnasts will approach their routines with that same attitude. The best event finals performances aren't the clean, regular-season routines that we've already seen over a dozen times. They are the attempts to do something memorably light-hearted, difficult, or interesting, like Anna Li's chucked Yurchenko 1.5 Tiptoe Parade after she unexpectedly made vault finals her senior year.
It's going to be a long afternoon with twenty-three vaulters in three separate warm-up groups. Make sure your survival supplies are in order (I have the trail mix and the beef jerky, you bring the water), and make sure to be really, really critical. This is event finals after all. I want to see those toes pointed and those legs not twisted.
The competitors are as follows: Vault: Everyone who lives. Seriously. I think I saw Vera Caslavska on the start list. Bars: Dabritz, Damianova, Morrison, Sloan, Brewer, Caquatto, Johnson, Davis, Wyrick, Clark Beam: Williams, Nordquist, Caquatto, Shealy, Zurales, Brewer, Sloan, King, Francis Floor: King, Sloan, Jacob, Milliner, Wong, Grable, Mable, Sampson, Damianova, Courville, Weinstein, Courtney
It's a little wistful, isn't it? The end of another season. But of course, we still have the little business of the team title to take care of before it's all over. The meet will begin at 7 ET, 4 PT.
Officially banned today are any discussions of "wanting it more,"
"heart," or "guts." You won because you wanted it more? Good thing that
none of the other teams wanted to win, then. They didn't care, but you,
you wanted it. Give me a break.
In terms of scoring, my hope is that the judges recover from their overvaluing of landings during the second half of the second semifinal yesterday. If you had a complaint about the scoring from that part of the meet, it was because sticks (and lack thereof) dictated the entire score. Note that the judges will switch events and will not judge the same events they did yesterday. Vault and floor switch and bars and beam switch.
Oklahoma's twitter again provides us with the lineups for today. Shisler is in for Wang on floor, so that could become a big rotation. Oklahoma has shifted the beam lineup.
Florida enters as the favorite. We haven't had a true, clear favorite of this level since probably UCLA in 2010. I do believe this is in Florida's hands, but nothing has been decided yet. If Alabama and Oklahoma pull things up from their lackluster semifinals performances, they can challenge a slightly missing Florida.
The rotation order is as follows:
Oklahoma (vault)
LSU (bye before bars)
UCLA (bars)
Florida (beam)
Alabama (bye before floor)
Georgia (floor)
Any list of the top five NCAA gymnastics cliches must include "It's all about the team," otherwise either you're not trying hard enough or you're trying too hard to be unique. I see right through that. For now, let's spend a moment making it not about the team. I hope you can handle it.
The main event of semifinals day is always the actual qualification to Super Six, but tracking the individual all-around standings can be a fun little side story. The 2012 AA competition was rather unique in how many legitimate contenders there were, with what felt like a million at least fairly realistic title pursuers. While there are a bunch hanging around again this year, I don't see this competition as quite so inclusive. There are just a couple clear frontrunners this season, and I have broken them down (emotionally) below.
I considered previewing the event finals alongside the AA, but the event qualification is such a crapshoot that I'm holding off until we know who has advanced. I could go through all the favorites for each event, and then none of them could qualify to finals. This is especially true for vault where I can count literally thirty people who could advance to finals. As discussed last December, gymnasts will perform only one vault in event finals instead of the usual two. This will serve to eliminate the Yurchenko layout parade, but it also probably ensures that the most boring Yfull will win over vaults with more difficulty and originality. One hundred points to any gymnast that goes for difficulty (safely) even if it costs her the title.
In the all-around, Kytra Hunter won the title last year with a 39.725. I think it is going to take at least that and probably higher to win this year, so gymnasts should be evaluated on their potential to reach that level. While there are many strong AAers, there are far fewer who can realistically break into the 39.650-39.700 plateau.
Session 1:
The most dangerous competitors in the first session will be from (shock!) Florida, and defending champion Kytra Hunter is the best bet. On vault and floor, she has gone beyond being 9.950-capable to being 9.950-likely. This season, she has also improved her form and landing consistency on bars to make that event less of a weakness. Beam is still a little susceptible to wobbles, but if she hits it, she will be in the 39.7s again. Her 39.800 is the highest AA score recorded in this season. I wouldn't bet against her to repeat.
What's the good of being a top seed if it doesn't feel like it? This session is anarchy, and a seeding in the top three means almost nothing. Could the top three still advance? Of course, you imbecile, but that is no more likely than a number of other scenarios.
We're nearly there now. Just hold on a few more days. It's about to get very good.
[2] Oklahoma
It has been a good long while since a top seed in a semifinal failed to advance to Super Six, and while the path for the Sooners looks strong, they by no means enjoy the same level of comfort and self-determination that the Gators do. If we look at the Sooners' road performances this season, just once have they broken that crucial 197.500 barrier that teams will have to reach to begin to feel a degree of comfort in this session.
You can smell it, can't you? The session of weird. The fact that I deeming the night semifinal the session of weird probably confirms that it will be everything but weird, yet what makes this semifinal so interesting is that it has no normal, no expectation. In the first semifinal, it's quite possible that the bottom three seeds will fall away early on and Florida, Georgia, and LSU will slide through by heaps of tenths, but if the top three seeds advance from the second session, that would still be strange and interesting. What happened to Michigan, then?
There is much less order and safety in this session, so previewing the action is less about what one certain team needs to do to pass one other certain team. They could all fall in so many different arrangements that, for every team, it will come down to getting those borderline 9.9 routines up into the secure 9.9s and avoiding counting any 9.7s. All six teams have at least a couple concerns in both of those categories.
[7] Michigan
The Wolverines, perhaps alone among the title non-favorites, have not suffered a meltdown this year. Tellingly, they would be the #4 seed at these nationals if we were going solely by season average because they have so consistently hovered around 197 this year. And yet without huge 198s propping them up, they have continued to drop slowly down the actual rankings to this lowly 7th position. It seems a strange place since this team is too mid-197 capable to be considered an underdog.
If the 4, 5, and 6 seeds in the first semifinal have to manage the pressure of producing a season-best performance while also hoping for a little bit of help, the 1, 2, and 3 seeds have to manage the pressure of a sparkling Super Six opportunity, which may be even more difficult. For these three seeds, given this draw and what they have done so far, anything less than Super Six will make this a disappointing season.
Viewing the twelve nationals competitors as a whole, Georgia and LSU would not necessarily have seemed destined to make Super Six or have had their names associated with the word "lock," but the draw has thrust both into the position of being top teams, and it has been several years since either has confidently claimed that status. Georgia found itself in a similar position last year, a clear favorite to advance out of the softer semifinal, and crumbled on beam. This semifinal this year will largely hinge on how well Georgia and LSU avoid the crumble.
But first, the team everyone agrees should make it out of the first day rather comfortably.
Florida
For the Gators, perhaps alone in this semifinal, the focus must be on winning the title instead of simply advancing. Making Super Six should be routine for this team and would not be considered an accomplishment. As with any team, the possibility of missing still remains, but it would take an implosion, not just an off meet. This Gator team has little recent precedent for implosion, so "what Florida must do to advance" is not a topic interesting enough to be worth addressing.
Over the next week, I'll be providing hearty little capsules about each of the teams heading to National Championships, covering their strengths and weaknesses and their overall outlooks for the competition. Let's begin with the lower three seeds from the first semifinal.
Today, Val did an interview with Sam Peszek (whose interviewing skills have skyrocketed this season) where she said there are no straightforward semifinals anymore. You mean except for the first one? Of course, anything can happen. That's always true. However, this semifinal is in the hands of the top seeds, and I firmly believe that if Florida, Georgia, and LSU hit 24-for-24, they will advance to Super Six regardless of the other performances. Actually, Florida probably doesn't even have to hit that well to be comfortable.
To change that presumed outcome, it will take a season best from Minnesota or Stanford mixed with an off meet from Georgia or LSU. This is quite possible, but it will take a confluence of events. It won't be all on one team. The lower seeds will need help in the form of a sub-49 rotation or, more likely, a counting fall. This semifinal is still deep enough that Georgia and LSU should not be able to count falls and advance, at least hopefully. I never like to see a missed meet provide a ticket to Super Six. If the Gators are on 49.5s track again, they can probably count a 9.300 and be OK.
It wouldn't be National Championships without a few crazy falls, though, so don't take this session completely for granted. Assuming no falls, however, it should take a score into the lowish-midish 197s to advance to Super Six, so that is the standard on which we must evaluate all of the teams.
[8] Minnesota
Since remaining a thing at such a late point in the season isn't exactly the norm for the Gophers, they are free to take a moment to have some "Wheee! Nationals!" time, but only a moment. While I wouldn't call it a likely outcome, this team has the potential to continue past semifinals and should not be content with simply making it to the big city full of big dreams.
As I did with regionals, here is a comparison of several (lots) of relevant scores and averages for the teams in each semifinal. Road averages are used for all the teams except UCLA, the home team. Each score is followed by that team's ranking within the semifinal in that category.
Afternoon Session:
[1] Florida
NQS: 396.240 [1]
Regional score: 198.400 [1]
RQS: 197.840 [1]
Regular season high: 198.425 [1]
Regular season average: 197.486 [1]
Road average: 197.465 [1]
Road VT average: 49.415 [1]
Regional VT score: 49.600 [1]
Road UB average: 49.425 [1]
Regional UB score: 49.600 [1]
Road BB average: 49.305 [1]
Regional BB score: 49.550 [1]
Road FX average: 49.320 [2]
Regional FX score: 49.650 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.950; UB - 9.975; BB - 9.950; FX - 9.950; TOT - 39.825 [1]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.875; UB - 9.875; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.900; TOT - 39.525 [1]
[4] Georgia
NQS: 394.685 [2]
Regional score: 197.425 [2]
RQS: 197.260 [2]
Regular season high: 197.800 [3]
Regular season average: 196.721 [3]
Road average: 196.875 [2]
Road VT average: 49.253 [3]
Regional VT score: 49.250 [5]
Road UB average: 49.322 [2]
Regional UB score: 49.275 [2]
Road BB average: 49.172 [2]
Regional BB score: 49.475 [2]
Road FX average: 49.128 [2]
Regional FX score: 49.425 [3]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.875; UB - 9.900; BB - 9.925; FX - 9.950; TOT - 39.650 [3]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT - 9.825; UB - 9.825; BB - 9.875; FX - 9.825; TOT - 39.350 [2]
After a brief recovery from the coastal eddy that was regionals day, it's time to refocus on what's to come. I realize I never mentioned the individual qualifiers, so here they are:
Events
VT - Brittany Skinner, Nebraska; BB - Sarah Miller, Ohio State; FX - Makayla Stambaugh, Oregon State
There are some serious contenders in that all-around group, especially Wong, DeZiel, and Musser. However, it is very difficult to score well in the AA without a team to build the numbers, and all three are competing in the first session, which makes it very unlikely that they will challenge. Last year, the top six AA finishers all came from the evening session. I'll preview the AA at some point next week, but with Florida also in the first session, things are setting up quite well for a Zamarripa AA title at home as long as she performs better than she did at regionals.
But enough of that, on to the teams. After regionals, teams were ranked by National Qualifying Score (RQS + Regional score) and divided into semifinals with the 1,4,5,8,9,12 teams going into one session and the 2,3,6,7,10,11 teams going into the second session. It has resulted in a hilariously ill-balanced semifinal field.
The afternoon session, aka The SEC Silver Platter of Dreams and Unicorns:
[1] Florida, [4] Georgia, [5] LSU, [8] Minnesota, [9] Stanford, [12] Illinois
Florida, Georgia, and LSU will be heavily favored to advance. Of the bottom three, Stanford is the most dangerous. Much like the rest of the Pac-12, they are depleted to the point of scraping the bottom of the depth barrel, but if they can drop the substitute routines they need to drop, they have the most 9.9s of the bottom three teams and can get into the 197s.
It's anyone's guess. Obviously, this will be a crazy exciting meet. I'll preview it in depth soon, but the general consensus seems to be that Oklahoma, Alabama, and Michigan will be favored to advance. I'm not discounting the importance of UCLA's home score or Michigan's beam rotation yet, nor am I convinced that Oklahoma and Alabama are home free. When you get this many good teams together in the same place, it goes anywhere but normal. I smell a weird one.
-The Utes probably have it the roughest on the rotations because they may be forced to rely on a Georgia Dabritz beam hit if they are still in it going to the final routine.
-I'm OK that the top seeds are ending on a bye because presumably (at least in the case of Florida) they should be qualifying and won't be the most interesting team at the end.
-I actually like both LSU and UCLA starting on the beam. Ending on beam is way harder than starting there, and both teams probably need a scoring boost on bars that they might get by ending there.
-Ending on vault is a very good rotation for all the teams doing so (Georgia, Alabama, Minnesota, Michigan). All 49.500 capable.
The last competition from Nationals gets underway soon. It will take forever, as it always does, so buckle in. We don't have that many vault qualifiers this year, though, because some of the best vaulters didn't make finals. When you're watching people flop out lame Yurchenko layouts, remember that we won't see Vanessa Zamarripa because the rules are stupid. If you can't do two 10.0 vaults, you shouldn't be eligible for Event Finals.
Alabama is the National Champion for the second year in a row. I really feel for Florida because they did everything right this year and didn't mentally implode at Nationals. Alabama landed their skills, and in a year when it was all about landings, that won them the title. It will take a little more time to reflect on what we saw and make some determinations, so on to Event Finals.
Super Six is always a blur. A few short routines and then it's over. You remember senses more than actual routines. We can only hope it's not a dud. We've been building to this for months. I want excitement, and I'm going to be sad when it's over.
We spend all this time and watch all these meets, and the end of all our discussion is to arrive right back where we began. In December, I said that the teams with a realistic shot at the title were Florida, UCLA, and Alabama. Now, hours before Super Six, I'm saying that the teams with a realistic shot at the title are Florida, UCLA, and Alabama.
After the performance in Semifinals, I've re-promoted Alabama to the top flight of contenders. However, I was not completely wowed by them on some events. With the scoring as it was, they should have gone much higher than 49.400 on vault by getting some sticks in the middle of the lineup. If Georgia is getting a 49.6, Alabama needs to be getting a 52.
Florida looked mostly excellent and controlled, and they will be considered the favorites today, but they are not completely free of concerns. They looked shaky on floor at SECs, had two OOBs at Regionals, and had two OOBs (from the same people) in Semifinals. It's very difficult to correct trends for Super Six. Marissa King will be the one to watch. She has a history of broken brain in major competitions, and she was definitely off yesterday. They probably need to be dropping Wang-VT, Ellis-UB, Spicer-BB, and Ferguson/Stageberg-FX. They can't afford to drop a King score today.
UCLA scored lower than the other two in Semifinals, but they shouldn't be concerned about the scoring from yesterday because they were in the afternoon session and were kind of bad. They will need to hope for some happy scoring from the start today, though, as they need to be 49.400 on floor to be competitive. I don't expect to see repeats of the Zamarripa and Peszek mistakes, but watch out for Mattie. She's Mattie and she scored 9.775 on her two routines yesterday. No one was impressed.
As for the other teams, Utah will have to be very solid for 9.875s and hope for a sloppy competition. Arkansas and Stanford should be very proud of making it this far, but they will struggle to reach above their Semifinal scores, and it's going to take at least a 197.500 to win this (though I do expect the scoring to be more contained than it was last night).
