Roster
Armbrecht, Abby - Freshman
Bailey, Katie - Junior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Beers, Lauren - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Brannan, Mackenzie - Sophomore - VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Bresette, Jenna - Freshman
Giancroce, Angelina - Freshman
Guerra, Ari - Freshman
Guerrero, Nickie - Sophomore - BB (possible VT)
Huang, Amanda - Freshman
Jetter, Amanda - Junior - UB, FX
Loeb, Jennie - Sophomore - N/A
McNeer, Keely - Junior - VT, UB, BB
Rickett, Avery - Freshman
Sanders, Mary Lillian - Junior - N/A
Sims, Aja - Junior - UB, BB, FX
Sims, Carley - Senior - VT, FX (possible UB, BB)
Valentin, Mackenzie - Junior - VT, FX
Winston, Kiana - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Recent History
2015 - 4th
2014 - 4th
2013 - 3rd
2012 - 1st
2011 - 1st
2010 - 3rd
2016 Outlook
Alabama enters 2016 as an obvious Super Six pick and one of the top few contenders for the championship, a deep roster that should be able to improve on the quality of last year's team. Among the first-tier teams, that's a claim that really only Alabama can make this season, which is probably the best argument for potential glory at this point in the year. Alabama performed well in 2015, right on track with the quality we expect every year, yet was always one notch behind the very best schools. The biggest scores were just out of reach. Even though the losses of Clark and Williams put a dent in Alabama's scoring potential, between the injury comebacks of Winston and Bailey and the large class of freshman contributors, Alabama has gained more scores than lost and should be a more convincing contender for the title this time around.
Key Competitor
Kiana Winston. She's the secret weapon this year and basically counts as a bonus freshman since she wasn't able to come back fully last season. Winston was recruited to be an anchor-star for this team, so as the likes of Clark and Williams make way, it becomes more important for Winston to take up that mantle. To truly challenge Florida and Oklahoma (and not simply keep pace with last year's performances), Alabama needs an extra injection of 9.9s across three or four events that wasn't around last season, and Winston is the most likely to provide that. If she's truly back and actually healthy for five consecutive minutes, she has both the power and execution to be a top all-arounder.
Vault
I'm interested to see how vault develops for Alabama this year. Because it's Alabama and vault, the score needs to be a big deal, but the coaches have some decisions to make about difficulty. A number of people on the roster are capable of 1.5s, but Lauren Beers is coming off an offseason of surgeries and is a bit behind on vault and floor, while Mack Brannan, Nickie Guerrero, Ari Guerra, and Abby Armbrecht have all performed 1.5s in the recent past but lately have been working fulls. I'd expect to see 1.5s from at least a few of them this season, but in the case of someone like Brannan, she went down to the full last year because it was the better score. We'll have to see if the 0.05 boost changes that or if the full is the still the more prudent vault. Regardless, there's a sufficient mix of huge fulls and potential difficulty on the roster to see this as a 49.350-49.400 event again. The question is how consistently the 1.5s show up and if they help/are necessary.
In addition to these vaulters, Carley Sims and Keely McNeer both scored well enough for their fulls last season in early lineup positions and should be able to go into the 9.8s again this year. I'd certainly add Winston to that mix along with perhaps Bresette, giving the team a healthy crop of powerful, high-amplitude options. And then there's someone like Kenzie Valentin, who was an important vaulter for Arizona but hasn't been close to getting a look for Alabama. Does having a 10.0 vault help her stock? With the cloud of difficulty looming over everyone this year and Alabama's added depth, it may be tougher this season for past vaulters like Katie Bailey to make it back. She'll be one of the choices, but it's a serious 11-12 competitor fight, which means the team should be able to pick the very best 9.850+ fulls to go along with the 1.5s that do emerge.
Bars
Given the abilities and career track record of the gymnasts on this deep roster, Alabama shouldn't really have a problem on bars this year, but as with many of the other teams across the country, Alabama has been bleeding bars 9.9s and counting a few too many 9.8s over the last year or so. Those 49.275s at nationals last year were not competitive enough, leaving at least some room for further stuck-in-the-49.2s worries this season. How much will we be missing those big, nailed Sledge/Clark/Jacob DLOs, or will the talent deliver?
Jetter was supposed to be the next bars leader, but issues in landing that terrifying double front have rendered her more a supporting 9.850 than a scoring star, which means the duty falls to Kiana Winston this year to elevate the lineup. She has 9.9s in her, and with the official Bars Queen scepter still sitting unclaimed on its plush red pillow, the opportunity to begin her dynasty is there for the taking. Other occasional 9.9s will come from Katie Bailey and her famous full-out and Lauren Beers, who has suddenly become a bars worker late in her career and can power her way through a solid routine, though leg breaks and steps on her own double front can bring the score down. When those four have their dismounts clicking, this lineup will be strong and won't have an excuse for going under the 49.3 plateau, but I am concerned about stepping to 9.825s.
Showing posts with label Aja-Monet Sims. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aja-Monet Sims. Show all posts
December 31, 2015
December 28, 2014
#4 Alabama Preview
Recent History
The history of recent championships is pretty rosy for Alabama. Save for a couple rough finishes in 2007 and 2008, the Tide have put up a legitimate challenge for the title every year, ultimately succeeding in 2011 and 2012 when they went back-to-back to claim the program's fifth and six national titles overall. Since then, Alabama has remained right in the middle of the championship fight. They placed 3rd in 2013 and 4th at home in 2014, but it's easy to forget that if not for crucial mistakes on beam, Alabama could be the four-time defending champion. In each of the last two Super Sixes, they had it. Counting a 9.625 on beam put them behind Florida in 2013, and last year, they needed just 9.900 from Clark and Jacob in the last two spots to jump ahead of the Florida/Oklahoma tie, which was pretty realistic. It didn't happen.
2015 Outlook
Now, we enter a new era in Alabama gymnastics. Sarah Patterson is gone, and the identity of the Duckworth reign is yet to be defined. It will be a different Alabama this year. There are always changes when a new coach takes over, even if that coach was with the team already, but the most important contributor to Alabama's 2015 evolution will not be the coaching change but the roster turnover. Kim Jacob, Diandra Milliner, and Sarah DeMeo accounted for 3 routines on vault, beam, and floor, and 2 on bars, many of which were 9.9s and the rest were all-but-guaranteed 9.850s. Without those three, Alabama will be putting up be a lot of new-look lineups, and it's reasonable to expect some drop in quality from last season.
That drop puts Alabama down below the current big three (Florida, Oklahoma, and LSU), the three teams with the clearest, most believable chance to win the championship this year. Still, I kept Alabama at #4 in my rankings, and the coaches did the same, because enough consistent talent, routine options, and supporting 9.875s remain on this team to consider them one of the safer bets to make Super Six. In spite of the lost routines, they still have 7 scores of 9.900+ returning from last year's Super Six performance, which is a very solid foundation that none of the teams ranked below them can match.
Much like Michigan, a team that has also lost a small village worth of routines, Alabama's success will depend on key returning competitors like Lauren Beers and Katie Bailey transitioning from supporting players (mid-lineup, good job getting that 9.850) to lineup leaders who are expected to get 9.9s every time out.
Vault
Returning lineup — Lauren Beers (9.930), Kaitlyn Clark (9.890), Katie Bailey (9.860)
When was the last time Alabama competed vault without Diandra Milliner in the anchor position? She held that spot from the very first meet of her freshman year (and got a 9.900), and it will be slightly strange to see the Tide vault without her 1.5 at the end. Yet in spite of losing the scoring potential of that vault, Alabama shouldn't suffer a major hit on this event because, for some reason, I think Kayla Williams will be able to manage a few 9.950s of her own. Just a world vault champion. You know, no big deal. Having Williams back from injury, whether she's vaulting her massive 1.5 or the full we know she can stick like crazy, will play a significant role in maintaining the quality from last year.
Alabama is sort of like a vaulting hydra. Cut off a 1.5 from Milliner and three more grow in its place. Freshmen Mackenzie Brannan and Nickie Guerrero both have 1.5s of competitive quality that can legitimately make the transition to NCAA. They're powerful options who should contribute right away. Really, Williams should go into Milliner's spot, Brannan and Guerrero should go into Jacob and DeMeo's spots, and we call it a day. Done. 49.500s. Beers and Clark both slam down their fulls for regular 9.9s, and Bailey proved clean enough and showed enough distance on her y1/2 last season that she kept pace with the rest of the team while performing a half twist less. This should be a strong event for Alabama, and because there are question marks on other events, it will be that much more important for Alabama to stock up on 49.5s here.
The history of recent championships is pretty rosy for Alabama. Save for a couple rough finishes in 2007 and 2008, the Tide have put up a legitimate challenge for the title every year, ultimately succeeding in 2011 and 2012 when they went back-to-back to claim the program's fifth and six national titles overall. Since then, Alabama has remained right in the middle of the championship fight. They placed 3rd in 2013 and 4th at home in 2014, but it's easy to forget that if not for crucial mistakes on beam, Alabama could be the four-time defending champion. In each of the last two Super Sixes, they had it. Counting a 9.625 on beam put them behind Florida in 2013, and last year, they needed just 9.900 from Clark and Jacob in the last two spots to jump ahead of the Florida/Oklahoma tie, which was pretty realistic. It didn't happen.
2015 Outlook
Now, we enter a new era in Alabama gymnastics. Sarah Patterson is gone, and the identity of the Duckworth reign is yet to be defined. It will be a different Alabama this year. There are always changes when a new coach takes over, even if that coach was with the team already, but the most important contributor to Alabama's 2015 evolution will not be the coaching change but the roster turnover. Kim Jacob, Diandra Milliner, and Sarah DeMeo accounted for 3 routines on vault, beam, and floor, and 2 on bars, many of which were 9.9s and the rest were all-but-guaranteed 9.850s. Without those three, Alabama will be putting up be a lot of new-look lineups, and it's reasonable to expect some drop in quality from last season.
That drop puts Alabama down below the current big three (Florida, Oklahoma, and LSU), the three teams with the clearest, most believable chance to win the championship this year. Still, I kept Alabama at #4 in my rankings, and the coaches did the same, because enough consistent talent, routine options, and supporting 9.875s remain on this team to consider them one of the safer bets to make Super Six. In spite of the lost routines, they still have 7 scores of 9.900+ returning from last year's Super Six performance, which is a very solid foundation that none of the teams ranked below them can match.
Much like Michigan, a team that has also lost a small village worth of routines, Alabama's success will depend on key returning competitors like Lauren Beers and Katie Bailey transitioning from supporting players (mid-lineup, good job getting that 9.850) to lineup leaders who are expected to get 9.9s every time out.
Vault
Returning lineup — Lauren Beers (9.930), Kaitlyn Clark (9.890), Katie Bailey (9.860)
When was the last time Alabama competed vault without Diandra Milliner in the anchor position? She held that spot from the very first meet of her freshman year (and got a 9.900), and it will be slightly strange to see the Tide vault without her 1.5 at the end. Yet in spite of losing the scoring potential of that vault, Alabama shouldn't suffer a major hit on this event because, for some reason, I think Kayla Williams will be able to manage a few 9.950s of her own. Just a world vault champion. You know, no big deal. Having Williams back from injury, whether she's vaulting her massive 1.5 or the full we know she can stick like crazy, will play a significant role in maintaining the quality from last year.
Alabama is sort of like a vaulting hydra. Cut off a 1.5 from Milliner and three more grow in its place. Freshmen Mackenzie Brannan and Nickie Guerrero both have 1.5s of competitive quality that can legitimately make the transition to NCAA. They're powerful options who should contribute right away. Really, Williams should go into Milliner's spot, Brannan and Guerrero should go into Jacob and DeMeo's spots, and we call it a day. Done. 49.500s. Beers and Clark both slam down their fulls for regular 9.9s, and Bailey proved clean enough and showed enough distance on her y1/2 last season that she kept pace with the rest of the team while performing a half twist less. This should be a strong event for Alabama, and because there are question marks on other events, it will be that much more important for Alabama to stock up on 49.5s here.
November 17, 2013
Freshman Meet and Greet: Alabama
I've been putting off doing the Alabama freshmen for a while because there are eleventy million of them, but here we go.
Alabama lost a fairly significant group after 2013 in Priess, Sledge, Gutierrez, and Alexin, both in terms of lineup contribution and fan favorite routines. Ashley Sledge and Marissa Gutierrez were my favorite Bammers, so there are places in my shrine to be won if these freshmen are up to the task. We'll see. Side question for Alabama fans: If you're a UCLA athlete, you're a Bruin. If you're a Florida athlete, you're a Gator. What is the approved singular noun term for an Alabama athlete? A Bammer? A Tide? A Crimson? Guidance is appreciated.
Because of these exiting routines, 2014 seemed like it would be a down year for the Tide, especially since the original signing group was comprised of just Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey, who alone would not be able to make up for the lost scores. But then Sarah went to work, and now this freshmen class is a monster.
Still, because such significant scores are gone, these freshmen will need to be contributors from the beginning, particularly on bars. Half of the bars lineup is gone, and the returning gymnasts have had a tendency to suffer from handstand-itis, so bars is my primary area of focus for these freshmen. This is a big group that certainly has the potential to contribute on every event, but it also seems that Alabama could come up with nationally competitive vault and floor lineups solely using returning gymnasts if necessary.
We can see bits and pieces from some of the freshman routines already in the video from Ghosts and Goblins.
Amanda Jetter
We'll start with Jetter, not just because she was well-known as an elite but because she is among those who could be a significant piece of the UB solution. As an elite, she was always associated with Cassie Whitcomb because they emerged at the same time and boast the same strengths, so I have a vague impression that her NCAA career will follow the same path solely by association, but that's not really fair. All will depend on how much she suffers from CGA back or CGA legs or any of the other eponymous Cincinnati injuries.
Vault - 2012 Nationals
Bars - 2012 Nationals
Alabama lost a fairly significant group after 2013 in Priess, Sledge, Gutierrez, and Alexin, both in terms of lineup contribution and fan favorite routines. Ashley Sledge and Marissa Gutierrez were my favorite Bammers, so there are places in my shrine to be won if these freshmen are up to the task. We'll see. Side question for Alabama fans: If you're a UCLA athlete, you're a Bruin. If you're a Florida athlete, you're a Gator. What is the approved singular noun term for an Alabama athlete? A Bammer? A Tide? A Crimson? Guidance is appreciated.
Because of these exiting routines, 2014 seemed like it would be a down year for the Tide, especially since the original signing group was comprised of just Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey, who alone would not be able to make up for the lost scores. But then Sarah went to work, and now this freshmen class is a monster.
Still, because such significant scores are gone, these freshmen will need to be contributors from the beginning, particularly on bars. Half of the bars lineup is gone, and the returning gymnasts have had a tendency to suffer from handstand-itis, so bars is my primary area of focus for these freshmen. This is a big group that certainly has the potential to contribute on every event, but it also seems that Alabama could come up with nationally competitive vault and floor lineups solely using returning gymnasts if necessary.
We can see bits and pieces from some of the freshman routines already in the video from Ghosts and Goblins.
Amanda Jetter
We'll start with Jetter, not just because she was well-known as an elite but because she is among those who could be a significant piece of the UB solution. As an elite, she was always associated with Cassie Whitcomb because they emerged at the same time and boast the same strengths, so I have a vague impression that her NCAA career will follow the same path solely by association, but that's not really fair. All will depend on how much she suffers from CGA back or CGA legs or any of the other eponymous Cincinnati injuries.
Vault - 2012 Nationals
Bars - 2012 Nationals
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