Before They Were NCAA – The 2012 Elites

Now comes the point in the year when we must attempt to wrench ourselves out of an NCAA mindset and pay attention to the elite world again. We're little more than a month away from Classic now, so the Mad Max remake that masquerades as the US Olympic selection process is soon to reach its familiarly feverish levels. "Do we actually need a bars specialist?" he asks, sharpening an abandoned femur into a spear.

As a bridge between the two worlds, I periodically like to take the results of past US elite competitions and examine how the gymnasts ranked at that point compared to how they would eventually fare in NCAA a few years later. Who rises? Who falls? Who is like the mousy girl in the high school movie who takes off her glasses and suddenly turns beautiful in the NCAA code? Who was using elite difficulty to mask deficiencies that are exposed in college? As we know, success in elite and success in NCAA do not have a 1:1 relationship.

Today, I have taken the various AA and event results from the 2012 Visa Championships (Visa Championships...feels so long ago. Like the John Hancock US Championships, which were basically contemporaneous with John Hancock) and bolded the gymnasts who competed in NCAA at some point after this competition (so I didn't include Anna Li since she's a category all her own). A number of items jump out. 

All-around
1. Wieber – 69.650/61.250
2. Douglas – 60.650/61.050
3. Raisman – 69.200/69.750
4. Ross – 59.750/60.200
5. Price – 59.600/58.500
6. Finnegan – 59.150/58.450
7. Vega – 56.500/57.950
8. Baker – 58.050/56.400
9. Dowell – 55.7800/56.900
10. Sloan – 56.250/56.150
11. Milliet – 55.250/55.150
12. Brown – 54.200/55.500
13. McLaughlin – 55.400/53.150
14. Jetter – 53.550/54.850
15. Skinner – 55.550/51.600
16. Jay – 52.550/53.150
17. Wofford – 51.900/53.350

Fewer than half of the future NCAA gymnasts who competed AA at the 2012 championships continued to do AA in college (and only two or three of the eleven have been full-time AAers for multiple seasons), which helps illustrate the danger of assuming NCAA dominance for all elites. Those who continue at the same strength as all-arounders, your Sloans and Prices and Bakers, are the exception more than the rule. Instead, we have the usual random smattering of competition and success levels, ranging from barely-one-event status to best-in-the-country status. But what's of most interest here is the reason they're not competing AA in college.

We tend to assume that the biggest obstacle for elites transitioning to NCAA is health, that they all would be top-ranked gems if their bodies weren't halfway to the glue factory by now after so many trips to Martha's Texas Adventure. While that's true in several cases, many are relatively healthy but simply not making all the lineups. Even someone who counts in the all-around category like Brianna Brown probably wouldn't have done AA this year if Casanova had been available, and Brandie Jay spent three years not even getting close to Georgia's beam lineup, not because of health but because of "Aaahh, beam!" In her 2015 season at Oklahoma, Dowell was in a similar position to Jay. Sometimes, in spite of an elite pedigree and strong rankings through the age of 18, gymnasts are just not top six on their NCAA teams, even on events that were elite strengths.

In breaking down some of the specific rankings, I'm not taking Sloan into account much because she wasn't up to her full level during 2012, so this isn't really reflective of her standing in the elite world the way 2008 and 2009 were. It's not like Sloan was some middle-of-the-pack elite who suddenly bloomed in college.

Brandie Jay is one who leapfrogged many of her higher-ranked elite peers to become a bigger and more influential contributor in NCAA than she was in elite, finishing largely on par with the likes of Kennedy Baker, who was a higher scorer and more compelling contender during the end of the last quad. Jay is probably the best example here of someone whose dominant years were still ahead of her in 2012.



Finnegan is also an interesting case because if we were to judge her freshman year by the second-behind-Price standard that 2012 gave us, the 2016 season would be considered somewhat average and not the dominance and team-leading influence normally expected of an Olympic alternate. Yet, having gone through years of "does she do gymnastics?" in between, her three events of 9.850-9.900 and ability to leg-event at all this season are a somewhat unexpected and welcome revelation. A lot happens between elite and NCAA, and we don't often maintain expectations for NCAA based on elite results, especially for certain types of gymnasts. I don't think many would say Abby Milliet's NCAA career has been disappointing so far, but she's certainly not top-6 AA level. Even before Grace McLaughlin started at Florida, she was at "maybe a beam routine?" status, not AA-queen status.

A lot of this does come down to injury history/gymnastics style. We tend to maintain elite expectations for gymnasts with Raisman legs who look like they can hold up to four more years of gymnastics, but with the fragile-looking spinny twisties, we're just happy to see a routine at some point, even if it's an exhibition bars. We're like, "Good for her! I can see knees! She still has them!"  

It's worth noting that there are no "whoops, I broke and then disappeared into witness protection without another word" gymnasts in this AA collection, which is encouraging. Everyone either made the Olympics and turned pro, did NCAA, or will do NCAA. The only one in the whole 2012 competition who doesn't fit into those categories is Bross. There are usually more.

Vault (one vault, two days)
1. Wieber 15.650/15.900
2. Price 15.800/15.600 
3. Douglas 15.350/15.800
4. Sacramone 15.450/15.500
5. Raisman 15.450/15.300
6. Ross 15.100/15.250
7. Finnegan 15.000/14.900
8. Baker 14.650/14.800
9. Skinner 14.550/14.600
10. Jay 14.600/14.500
11. Dowell 14.250/14.700
12. Vega 14.100/14.500
13. Jetter 14.100/14.150
14. Milliet 14.050/14.150
15. Brown 13.950/14.100
16. McLaughlin 13.800/14.200
17. Sloan 13.850/14.150
18. Brannan 13.800/14.150
19. Wofford 12.000/12.200

#3 Alabama Preview

Roster
Armbrecht, Abby - Freshman
Bailey, Katie - Junior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Beers, Lauren - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Brannan, Mackenzie - Sophomore - VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Bresette, Jenna - Freshman
Giancroce, Angelina - Freshman
Guerra, Ari - Freshman
Guerrero, Nickie - Sophomore - BB (possible VT)
Huang, Amanda - Freshman
Jetter, Amanda - Junior - UB, FX
Loeb, Jennie - Sophomore - N/A
McNeer, Keely - Junior - VT, UB, BB
Rickett, Avery - Freshman
Sanders, Mary Lillian - Junior - N/A
Sims, Aja - Junior - UB, BB, FX
Sims, Carley - Senior - VT, FX (possible UB, BB)
Valentin, Mackenzie - Junior - VT, FX
Winston, Kiana - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX

Recent History
2015 - 4th
2014 - 4th
2013 - 3rd
2012 - 1st
2011 - 1st
2010 - 3rd

2016 Outlook
Alabama enters 2016 as an obvious Super Six pick and one of the top few contenders for the championship, a deep roster that should be able to improve on the quality of last year's team. Among the first-tier teams, that's a claim that really only Alabama can make this season, which is probably the best argument for potential glory at this point in the year. Alabama performed well in 2015, right on track with the quality we expect every year, yet was always one notch behind the very best schools. The biggest scores were just out of reach. Even though the losses of Clark and Williams put a dent in Alabama's scoring potential, between the injury comebacks of Winston and Bailey and the large class of freshman contributors, Alabama has gained more scores than lost and should be a more convincing contender for the title this time around.

Key Competitor
Kiana Winston. She's the secret weapon this year and basically counts as a bonus freshman since she wasn't able to come back fully last season. Winston was recruited to be an anchor-star for this team, so as the likes of Clark and Williams make way, it becomes more important for Winston to take up that mantle. To truly challenge Florida and Oklahoma (and not simply keep pace with last year's performances), Alabama needs an extra injection of 9.9s across three or four events that wasn't around last season, and Winston is the most likely to provide that. If she's truly back and actually healthy for five consecutive minutes, she has both the power and execution to be a top all-arounder.

Vault


I'm interested to see how vault develops for Alabama this year. Because it's Alabama and vault, the score needs to be a big deal, but the coaches have some decisions to make about difficulty. A number of people on the roster are capable of 1.5s, but Lauren Beers is coming off an offseason of surgeries and is a bit behind on vault and floor, while Mack Brannan, Nickie Guerrero, Ari Guerra, and Abby Armbrecht have all performed 1.5s in the recent past but lately have been working fulls. I'd expect to see 1.5s from at least a few of them this season, but in the case of someone like Brannan, she went down to the full last year because it was the better score. We'll have to see if the 0.05 boost changes that or if the full is the still the more prudent vault. Regardless, there's a sufficient mix of huge fulls and potential difficulty on the roster to see this as a 49.350-49.400 event again. The question is how consistently the 1.5s show up and if they help/are necessary. 

In addition to these vaulters, Carley Sims and Keely McNeer both scored well enough for their fulls last season in early lineup positions and should be able to go into the 9.8s again this year. I'd certainly add Winston to that mix along with perhaps Bresette, giving the team a healthy crop of powerful, high-amplitude options. And then there's someone like Kenzie Valentin, who was an important vaulter for Arizona but hasn't been close to getting a look for Alabama. Does having a 10.0 vault help her stock? With the cloud of difficulty looming over everyone this year and Alabama's added depth, it may be tougher this season for past vaulters like Katie Bailey to make it back. She'll be one of the choices, but it's a serious 11-12 competitor fight, which means the team should be able to pick the very best 9.850+ fulls to go along with the 1.5s that do emerge.

Bars


Given the abilities and career track record of the gymnasts on this deep roster, Alabama shouldn't really have a problem on bars this year, but as with many of the other teams across the country, Alabama has been bleeding bars 9.9s and counting a few too many 9.8s over the last year or so. Those 49.275s at nationals last year were not competitive enough, leaving at least some room for further stuck-in-the-49.2s worries this season. How much will we be missing those big, nailed Sledge/Clark/Jacob DLOs, or will the talent deliver? 

Jetter was supposed to be the next bars leader, but issues in landing that terrifying double front have rendered her more a supporting 9.850 than a scoring star, which means the duty falls to Kiana Winston this year to elevate the lineup. She has 9.9s in her, and with the official Bars Queen scepter still sitting unclaimed on its plush red pillow, the opportunity to begin her dynasty is there for the taking. Other occasional 9.9s will come from Katie Bailey and her famous full-out and Lauren Beers, who has suddenly become a bars worker late in her career and can power her way through a solid routine, though leg breaks and steps on her own double front can bring the score down. When those four have their dismounts clicking, this lineup will be strong and won't have an excuse for going under the 49.3 plateau, but I am concerned about stepping to 9.825s.

#2 Alabama Preview

Happy New Year, it's Alabama time, ready for a brand new season full of competing for the championship. Early last season, the Tide had just enough problems on bars for low 49s that the RQS never recovered enough to catch what Florida and Oklahoma were putting up (finishing at just some paltry 197.415), but Alabama was always right in the hunt as a realistic winner. When Florida had the beam issues in Super Six, it seemed almost guaranteed that Alabama would pounce on that for a three-peat, but lack of stuck vaults and two beam mistakes combined to dash their dreams and relegate them to the third place status at which they also finished the regular season.

The Crimson Tide looks to occupy a similar place in the hierarchy this year, always a potential title winner hanging on the cusp of being the favorite. The team has lost a number of important seniors from last season, so there's some reason to be wary about how these lineups will shape up, at least in January. However, the 2013 injuries to Gutierrez and Sledge may now end up being beneficial in a way because the absences of those two at the end of last season gave experience to competitors who wouldn't have competed otherwise but will be counted upon this year. There aren't as many unknowns in the Alabama lineups as there might have been otherwise.

The issue this year may not be so much the quantity of lost routines but the significance. Alabama was already a fairly deep team last year, especially on the Alabama-y events, and with a group of freshmen in Amanda Jetter, Katie Bailey, Aja Sims, Dominique Pegg, and company who can all be at least backups on multiple events, the team should have plenty of possible options across the apparatuses. Finding the person who can not only compete in those spots but manage some Ashley Priess 9.925s will be the story of this season.

Vault:


Oddly, Alabama's vaulting last postseason was just OK. Sure, 49.350 is a great score for most teams, but not for this team. They could have and should have been in the 49.500 conversation, especially at that time of year, but the landings just disappeared into a cloud of smoke after SECs and the absence of Marissa Gutierrez really started to show.

Still, there's rarely reason to worry about Alabama on vault, so even though they're losing some significant quality, they should have a strong look at those big scores once again given the strength of the people who are returning. Diandra Milliner, Kayla Williams, Kaitlyn Clark, and Lauren Beers have all proven 9.9 capable and should score regularly in the 9.875+ realm. Those vaults alone will carry Alabama's scoring past the large majority of teams, though I would like to see Williams graduate to a higher place in the lineup this season.

Freshman Meet and Greet: Alabama

I've been putting off doing the Alabama freshmen for a while because there are eleventy million of them, but here we go.

Alabama lost a fairly significant group after 2013 in Priess, Sledge, Gutierrez, and Alexin, both in terms of lineup contribution and fan favorite routines. Ashley Sledge and Marissa Gutierrez were my favorite Bammers, so there are places in my shrine to be won if these freshmen are up to the task. We'll see. Side question for Alabama fans: If you're a UCLA athlete, you're a Bruin. If you're a Florida athlete, you're a Gator. What is the approved singular noun term for an Alabama athlete? A Bammer? A Tide? A Crimson? Guidance is appreciated.

Because of these exiting routines, 2014 seemed like it would be a down year for the Tide, especially since the original signing group was comprised of just Amanda Jetter and Katie Bailey, who alone would not be able to make up for the lost scores. But then Sarah went to work, and now this freshmen class is a monster.

Still, because such significant scores are gone, these freshmen will need to be contributors from the beginning, particularly on bars. Half of the bars lineup is gone, and the returning gymnasts have had a tendency to suffer from handstand-itis, so bars is my primary area of focus for these freshmen. This is a big group that certainly has the potential to contribute on every event, but it also seems that Alabama could come up with nationally competitive vault and floor lineups solely using returning gymnasts if necessary.

We can see bits and pieces from some of the freshman routines already in the video from Ghosts and Goblins. 

Amanda Jetter
We'll start with Jetter, not just because she was well-known as an elite but because she is among those who could be a significant piece of the UB solution. As an elite, she was always associated with Cassie Whitcomb because they emerged at the same time and boast the same strengths, so I have a vague impression that her NCAA career will follow the same path solely by association, but that's not really fair. All will depend on how much she suffers from CGA back or CGA legs or any of the other eponymous Cincinnati injuries. 

Vault - 2012 Nationals


Bars - 2012 Nationals