The final preview. We're going on fumes now. Soon, I won't have to use the word potential again for a whole year. Confetti. And also the meets will happen. That's fine too, I guess. Michigan is already out of the gates, winning Cancun with a 196.975, led by Artz and Karas 9.9ing all over the place. That'll do. Arkansas counted multiple falls. That won't do.
Roster
Brown, Natalie - Sophomore - BB, FX
Capps, Chayse - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Catour, Stefani - Sophomore - N/A
Craus, Samantha - Sophomore - UB
Hemry, Reagan - Junior - UB
Jackson, Ali - Sophomore - VT, FX (possible UB, BB)
Jones, Charity - Junior - VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Kanewa, Maile - Senior - VT, FX
Kmieciak, Keeley - VT, UB, BB (possible FX)
Lehrmann, Nicole - Freshman
Lovan, Kara - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Marks, Alex - Freshman
Price, Hunter - Senior - VT
Scaman, Haley - Senior - VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Thompson, Megan - Freshman
Turner, Nicole - Senior - FX
Wofford, McKenzie - Junior - UB
Recent History
2015 - 3rd
2014 - 1st
2013 - 2nd
2012 - 7th
2011 - 3rd
2010 - 2nd
2016 Outlook
OK, Sooners. The coaches have spoken, and it's your turn to win this year. The coaches poll is binding. Weirdly, Oklahoma underperformed at Super Six last year, something we're not accustomed to seeing from this team when not ravaged by injury, though I wouldn't really use that as an indicator for how things will go this season. As has been the case every year since the breakthrough in 2010, Oklahoma ranks among the top couple favorites for the title, and given the team's penchant for starting quickly, Oklahoma is the best bet to spend the lion's share of the regular season at #1. The difference between being an easy Super Six bet (a given) and a title favorite this year, however, will lay in the team's ability to manage its sudden Dowellessness and overcome the depletion of the bars lineup, something Oklahoma has proven quite adept at in the past.
Winning this season will be more challenging than it has been in the past couple years because the Sooners have suffered a net routine loss from that 2015 third-place result, putting them in a position of now having to do more with less. Success in 2016 will be borne from developing existing routines into 9.9s they haven't been so far.
Key Competitor
Which brings me to Charity Jones. Jones came to Oklahoma at the tail end of those years when we were still sort of concerned about whether the team had enough power to wake the judges up out of their 9.850 comas (we were so young then). She was supposed to be a huge part of a power renaissance but has been perpetually MIA since then, competing just a bars routine or vault here and there at the very end of seasons. Now without Dowell, with Kanewa still on the comeback trail, and with a class of newbies more likely to make a mark on bars and beam, the team will be exceptionally reliant on someone like Jones to fill out the power-event lineups with competitive scores that keep the Sooners on the 49.5-everywhere track that has made them perennial title contenders.
Vault
Brenna Dowell's 1.5+ vault repertoire would have been an asset this season, so it's natural to expect some dip in the scores without her. Still, Oklahoma retains enough important vaults that this should still be a top-5 vaulting team. (How many teams have I declared top-5 vaulting teams this year? Is it more than 5? I'M THE BEST.) Haley Scaman remains the star. She downgraded from the 1.5 for the scores a couple years ago, but she spent a whole season getting 9.875s for that 1.5 and can upgrade back to it no problem. It's worth it for her to go for the 1.5, but we'll have to see how well she scores for it compared to the 9.900-9.925s she could still get for a full this season. The landing must be there to make the 1.5 valuable. Ah, the strategy of it all. Regardless, it will be the important score in this lineup, along with Ali Jackson, who performed her 1.5 all last season and comfortably scored into the 9.9s for it.
The remaining places look to be filled by fulls, unless the new values finally get Hunter Price into the lineup for her handspring pike 1/2. She's been borderline-lineup her whole career, so perhaps this will boost her into the group. Or perhaps not. The roster boasts more than enough options for fulls, so we'll just have to see who is the stickiest and amplitudiest, who can get into the high 9.8s and challenge for 9.9s instead of staying stuck at 9.800. Ideally, you'd have Kanewa on vault because her full is the best of the rest. Healthy Kanewa would be a lock for the lineup, and I'd definitely take Jones for her power (she did a DTY back in the JO days) and Capps for the way she opens out of that full. The team will also have fulls from Kmieciak, Marks, Lehrmann and Lovan that could all realistically go, so depth isn't an issue. The only issue would be getting stuck with too many vaults in the middish, lowish 9.8s (as many teams will because of the lowered values). Scaman and Jackson sticking for 9.950 is critical.
Bars
We don't usually expect events to look sparse for Oklahoma, but this one does. Relatively. Because otherwise critical contributors like Capps and Lovan won't be used on bars, there aren't as many options. In fact, the Sooners return just four people who competed even a single bars routines last year. The rest are "well, I guess she could," which will make the bars rotation in the opening meet against LSU the one to watch. Obviously, much depends upon Wofford. She is the most refined and impressive bars worker on the team and has developed into a pretty reliable 9.900-9.950. Without the luxury of a Dowell or Spears to help her out, she's going to have to get at least 9.900 pretty much every week.
Scaman and Kmieciak will both also return to the lineup, and because of Oklahoma, they're precise enough to hit 9.900 here and there. Though they're also more susceptible to a 9.825. Bars has been a 49.500-level strength for a while now, which means everyone gets a 9.900, so to keep Oklahoma within sight of that lofty goal, Lehrmann and Marks need to become not just options but reliably significant scores. Both do have the skill set and surplus toe point to become exceptional bars workers and fit right into this lineup. Mark just joined the team recently, so we'll see how long it takes to develop that routine, but bars was Lehrmann's best event in JO, so look for her to get serious.
Showing posts with label Ali Jackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ali Jackson. Show all posts
January 2, 2016
December 31, 2014
#2 Oklahoma Preview
Recent History
From the time K.J. Kindler took over as head coach in 2006, Oklahoma has transformed from a team that occasionally made nationals and finished 12th, first into a perennial nationals qualifier (placing somewhere between 8th and 10th each year), then into a title contender (three top 3 finishes from 2010–2013), and finally last year into a champion. Well, co-champion, but I found it difficult to muster my usual abhorrence for ties (everyone's a winner!) because Oklahoma's first title was so well deserved as a reward for the tremendous progress made over the last decade. Plus, that means six teams have now won national championships, which is almost a normal amount of teams! Almost. Still work to do.
2015 Outlook
Oklahoma actually managed to win the title a year earlier than I thought they would be able to. Back when we first started hearing about the 2015 incoming class (at that point Wofford was also part of this class), it seemed like 2015 would be the season Oklahoma finally broke through. They jumped the gun a little bit last year, but 2015 remains a pretty good bet for the Sooners to insanely-exaggerated-salute their way to another title. While a few significant scores are gone, last year's team remains largely intact, with four or five lineup routines returning on each event including thirteen of the seventeen 9.9s from that impressive Super Six performance.
The Sooners will most certainly be back in 2015 with their usual batch of ninja Level 10s who all excel on three events, plus the boost from the standout freshman class that we've been waiting for, featuring Brenna Dowell. It's a slight breach of Oklahoma etiquette that Dowell is a well-known elite instead of an obscure and suddenly amazing Level 10, but I think we'll all get past it somehow. We did for Hollie Vise and Natasha Kelley. The key to Dowell's success as an NCAA gymnast? Be less injured than Natasha Kelley.
Oklahoma is going to be good this season (analysis!), but the path to winning these days is slightly different than we have come to expect for Oklahoma. They're in the midst of an identity transition. In years past, Oklahoma's success would come from staying close enough on vault and floor and then destroying everyone on bars and beam, but lately the Sooners have recruited gymnasts specifically to beef up those perceived weaknesses. Vault and floor were their highest scoring events in 2014, and this year's powerful freshman class makes Oklahoma's new status as a vault and floor team even more entrenched. Well, I shouldn't say vault and floor team. They're an every event team. Beam, obviously. But, they should be winning vault at the very least, and in 2015, the road to repeat likely includes being #1 in the country on the power events.
Vault
Returning lineup — Haley Scaman (9.940), Maile Kanewa (9.915), Keeley Kmieciak (9.905), Chayse Capps (9.900), Kara Lovan (9.870)
The reason for my bullishness about Oklahoma's vault should be pretty clear. They were exceptional already last year, finishing the regular season ranked #2 in the country, and the vault corps will be even better this season with the additions of Dowell and Ali Jackson. Dowell, of course, had a 2.5 as an elite and is currently working a 1.5 that is altogether too easy for her. Jackson also has a big-power 1.5 with impressive height and distance that has the makings of a high score. Remember when we used to worry about Oklahoma's difficulty and explosiveness on vault? Not so much anymore.
Those two would lead most lineup, but they're just the newbies joining an already strong group that contains at least a couple returning 9.950s. Haley Scaman has been the vault leader for this team, especially since downgrading to that beautiful full, which she can open out of and stick for the occasional 10. Maile Kanewa brings impressive power for consistent 9.900-9.950s, and while Chayse Capps has received attention mostly for her work on beam and floor, her distance and stickitude for yet more 9.9s on vault is just as essential to the team. Capps' best score often comes on vault. Just to add to the supply, Keeley Kmieciak recorded an RQS over 9.9 last year, Kara Lovan was an unexpected addition to the lineup who was usually clean for 9.850s, and even Hunter Price's front pike half is finally coming along. Depending on the injury status of Charity Jones, she's another one to watch. Jones seemed like an easy choice for the vault lineup before her injury last year considering that she competed a DTY in JO. You know it's a strong vault lineup when someone who used to have a DTY is almost an afterthought among the options. There will be 9.9s who fail to make the lineup this year, and 49.500s seem much more realistic than they ought to be. The other top vaulting teams will provide tough competition, but if Dowell and Jackson develop the kinds of landings they're capable of on their 1.5s, Oklahoma should be the best vault team in 2015. Not to oversell it or anything.
From the time K.J. Kindler took over as head coach in 2006, Oklahoma has transformed from a team that occasionally made nationals and finished 12th, first into a perennial nationals qualifier (placing somewhere between 8th and 10th each year), then into a title contender (three top 3 finishes from 2010–2013), and finally last year into a champion. Well, co-champion, but I found it difficult to muster my usual abhorrence for ties (everyone's a winner!) because Oklahoma's first title was so well deserved as a reward for the tremendous progress made over the last decade. Plus, that means six teams have now won national championships, which is almost a normal amount of teams! Almost. Still work to do.
2015 Outlook
Oklahoma actually managed to win the title a year earlier than I thought they would be able to. Back when we first started hearing about the 2015 incoming class (at that point Wofford was also part of this class), it seemed like 2015 would be the season Oklahoma finally broke through. They jumped the gun a little bit last year, but 2015 remains a pretty good bet for the Sooners to insanely-exaggerated-salute their way to another title. While a few significant scores are gone, last year's team remains largely intact, with four or five lineup routines returning on each event including thirteen of the seventeen 9.9s from that impressive Super Six performance.
The Sooners will most certainly be back in 2015 with their usual batch of ninja Level 10s who all excel on three events, plus the boost from the standout freshman class that we've been waiting for, featuring Brenna Dowell. It's a slight breach of Oklahoma etiquette that Dowell is a well-known elite instead of an obscure and suddenly amazing Level 10, but I think we'll all get past it somehow. We did for Hollie Vise and Natasha Kelley. The key to Dowell's success as an NCAA gymnast? Be less injured than Natasha Kelley.
Oklahoma is going to be good this season (analysis!), but the path to winning these days is slightly different than we have come to expect for Oklahoma. They're in the midst of an identity transition. In years past, Oklahoma's success would come from staying close enough on vault and floor and then destroying everyone on bars and beam, but lately the Sooners have recruited gymnasts specifically to beef up those perceived weaknesses. Vault and floor were their highest scoring events in 2014, and this year's powerful freshman class makes Oklahoma's new status as a vault and floor team even more entrenched. Well, I shouldn't say vault and floor team. They're an every event team. Beam, obviously. But, they should be winning vault at the very least, and in 2015, the road to repeat likely includes being #1 in the country on the power events.
Vault
Returning lineup — Haley Scaman (9.940), Maile Kanewa (9.915), Keeley Kmieciak (9.905), Chayse Capps (9.900), Kara Lovan (9.870)
The reason for my bullishness about Oklahoma's vault should be pretty clear. They were exceptional already last year, finishing the regular season ranked #2 in the country, and the vault corps will be even better this season with the additions of Dowell and Ali Jackson. Dowell, of course, had a 2.5 as an elite and is currently working a 1.5 that is altogether too easy for her. Jackson also has a big-power 1.5 with impressive height and distance that has the makings of a high score. Remember when we used to worry about Oklahoma's difficulty and explosiveness on vault? Not so much anymore.
Those two would lead most lineup, but they're just the newbies joining an already strong group that contains at least a couple returning 9.950s. Haley Scaman has been the vault leader for this team, especially since downgrading to that beautiful full, which she can open out of and stick for the occasional 10. Maile Kanewa brings impressive power for consistent 9.900-9.950s, and while Chayse Capps has received attention mostly for her work on beam and floor, her distance and stickitude for yet more 9.9s on vault is just as essential to the team. Capps' best score often comes on vault. Just to add to the supply, Keeley Kmieciak recorded an RQS over 9.9 last year, Kara Lovan was an unexpected addition to the lineup who was usually clean for 9.850s, and even Hunter Price's front pike half is finally coming along. Depending on the injury status of Charity Jones, she's another one to watch. Jones seemed like an easy choice for the vault lineup before her injury last year considering that she competed a DTY in JO. You know it's a strong vault lineup when someone who used to have a DTY is almost an afterthought among the options. There will be 9.9s who fail to make the lineup this year, and 49.500s seem much more realistic than they ought to be. The other top vaulting teams will provide tough competition, but if Dowell and Jackson develop the kinds of landings they're capable of on their 1.5s, Oklahoma should be the best vault team in 2015. Not to oversell it or anything.
November 2, 2014
Freshman Notes: Oklahoma and Georgia
Why does every team have a hundred thousand freshmen this year? Cool it, people. They're not going out of style. Today, we look at Oklahoma and Georgia.
OKLAHOMA
Boomer. The problem with winning a national championship for the first time is that now anything less than a national championship is a disappointment. No more of this "we're really proud of how much we went through to finish third" business. It's an every-year thing now, and Oklahoma will face some challenges to repeat in 2015 without Spears, Mooring, and Albright, who contributed 6 routines across three events last postseason, most significantly the late-lineup 9.9-athon that was Taylor Spears on bars and beam.
On the bright side, the Sooners have several new freshmen who can believably fill those scoring gaps, bringing with them way more than 6 lineup-ready routines. The first thing to be said about this class is that it officially signals the end of the "Oklahoma doesn't have the power/difficulty on the leg events" narrative era. That comment didn't really apply last year either, but it's definitely dead now. You can't use it anymore. This freshman class is power city.
Let's start with the most well-known of the newcomers, Brenna Dowell, who will be joining the team officially in January and made the smart choice to start this year instead of trying to stick it out in elite with the hope of making an Olympic team that was never going to happen. Not even getting the alternate spot for Worlds this year was the flashing neon sign she needed saying GET TO OKLAHOMA.
Anyone who has watched elite lately is familiar with Dowell's gymnastics, and she's another of those who can conceivably slot in anywhere in any lineup and be a rare AAer for this Oklahoma team. The only thing that would potentially hold her back is consistency, but I expect to see a lot of Dowell this year.
Vault
Bars
OKLAHOMA
Boomer. The problem with winning a national championship for the first time is that now anything less than a national championship is a disappointment. No more of this "we're really proud of how much we went through to finish third" business. It's an every-year thing now, and Oklahoma will face some challenges to repeat in 2015 without Spears, Mooring, and Albright, who contributed 6 routines across three events last postseason, most significantly the late-lineup 9.9-athon that was Taylor Spears on bars and beam.
On the bright side, the Sooners have several new freshmen who can believably fill those scoring gaps, bringing with them way more than 6 lineup-ready routines. The first thing to be said about this class is that it officially signals the end of the "Oklahoma doesn't have the power/difficulty on the leg events" narrative era. That comment didn't really apply last year either, but it's definitely dead now. You can't use it anymore. This freshman class is power city.
Let's start with the most well-known of the newcomers, Brenna Dowell, who will be joining the team officially in January and made the smart choice to start this year instead of trying to stick it out in elite with the hope of making an Olympic team that was never going to happen. Not even getting the alternate spot for Worlds this year was the flashing neon sign she needed saying GET TO OKLAHOMA.
Anyone who has watched elite lately is familiar with Dowell's gymnastics, and she's another of those who can conceivably slot in anywhere in any lineup and be a rare AAer for this Oklahoma team. The only thing that would potentially hold her back is consistency, but I expect to see a lot of Dowell this year.
Vault
Bars
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