National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)

Individuals are the worst. 

The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.

Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.

To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?

Individual Events


Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.

Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.

Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...

Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.

All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.

Bridget Sloan – Florida


RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775

Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?

Elizabeth Price – Stanford


RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675

If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.

Week 5 Rankings + Notes

Oklahoma takes over the #1 ranking this week. That seemed unlikely heading in, but the Sooners managed to pour some 197.9 all over the NCAA as Chayse Capps suddenly became the most important all-arounder in your life, while Florida had a late-meet nasty and lost to Georgia. Georgia. With Georgia beam.

Our regal 10.000 of the week comes courtesy of Capps, because of course it does. Finally. You can see the video of her beam 10 on Aunt Flo, but it's behind the iron subscription curtain. So otherwise, just imagine every other beam routine you've seen Chayse Capps do, and it's that. Just a 10 this time. And with a walkover to scale.

In other big routine news, NastiaFan101 posted Sophina the diva's floor routine and got it trending all over faceplace and the information superhighway. Hero's work. It's almost like social media is a tool that can be used to attract attention to the sport, or something. Teams should definitely continue not taking advantage of that at all and waiting for fans to do the work for them.



Love. Exciting. Beautiful. Fun and crowd-pleasing without being a joke. Though it will be interesting to see what it scores away from home given factors like whatever is happening after that switch ring. Or, knowing UCLA and the health situation and the Sophina being in the floor lineup situation, we'll never see this routine ever again. RIP, Hallie Mossett's feet.

This is why it has been frustrating to spend three seasons watching Sophina actively not making the floor lineup. Because she's capable of this. Her performance elevates the lineup, and when we have DeJesus and Mossett going at the same time (ever?), it will start to feel like a classic, thrilling UCLA floor rotation of years ago. Even Cipra, whose routine is not my taste, moves quite well and performs with style. It's encouraging to see that this year for a team that, especially in the couple seasons post-McCullough and EHH, had to keep the best dancers out of the lineup in favor of tumblers who could get the scores but didn't really want to have to dance about it, when it was all Pritchett and Courtney and Zam. (Stop freaking out, I love the Zam, but she never really looked thrilled at the idea of doing these routines.)

Week 5 rankings
1. Oklahoma –197.393
Week 5 A: 197.925
Week 5 A leaders: AA - Capps 39.775; VT - Scaman 9.925; UB - Capps, Kmieciak 9.900; BB - Capps 10.000; FX - Capps 9.975

Week 5 B: 197.900
Week 5 B leaders: AA - Capps 39.625; VT - Jackson 9.950; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.950; FX - Scaman 9.950

2. Florida – 197.220
Week 5: 196.350
Week 5 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.150; VT - McMurtry 9.900; UB - McMurtry 9.925; BB - Sloan 9.875; FX - Baker 9.925

3. Michigan – 196.860
Week 5: Monday meet

4. Alabama – 196.842
Week 5: 196.775
Week 5 leaders: AA - Bailey 39.450; VT - Beers 9.950; UB - Brannan 9.925; BB - Bailey, McNeer 9.875; FX - Bailey, Sims, Valentin 9.850

5. LSU – 196.705
Week 5: 197.425
Week 5 leaders: AA - Hambrick 39.625; VT - Everyone 9.875; UB - Hambrick 9.925; BB - Hambrick, Finnegan 9.925; FX - Gnat, Hambrick, Wyrick 9.900

6. Utah – 196.650
Week 5: 197.075
Week 5 leaders: AA - Partyka 39.450; VT - Partyka 9.875; UB - Lopez 9.925; BB - Stover 9.900; FX - Schwab 9.950

7. UCLA – 196.510
Week 5: 197.100
Week 5 leaders: AA - None; VT - Bynum, Preston 9.850; UB - Mossett 9.900; BB - Lee 9.925; FX - Cipra 9.975

8. Auburn – 196.204
Week 5: 196.825
Week 5 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.575; VT - Atkinson 9.900; UB - Atkinson, Krippner 9.875; BB - Atkinson 9.875; Atkinson, Kluz, Rott 9.925

9. Arkansas – 196.200
Week 5: 196.150
Week 5 leaders: AA - Wellick 39.350; VT - Wellick 9.850; UB - Zaziski, Freier 9.875; BB - Wellick 9.850; FX - Wellick 9.825

10. Boise State – 196.194
Week 5: 196.250
Week 5 leaders: AA - Remme 39.325; VT - Bennion, Bir 9.825; UB - Jacobsen 9.875; BB - Remme 9.875; FX - Krentz 9.925

Week 4 Rankings + Notes

That Florida gymnastics isn't marketing a shirt that says, "On Fridays, we get 10s" is ludicrous. Verging on lyyyyyudicrous. Florida's meet was the closest to a postseason-level performance we've seen so far this year (closest, but not there by any means), and now the Gators lead the rankings by a big, heaping margin this week with that 687.900 (because of Florida at home), highlighted by a "yeah, I'm down with that" 10.000 for Bridget Sloan on beam, a "squint...but also that Dos Santos" 10.000 for Kennedy Baker on floor, and a "Bahahahaha" 10.000 for Alex McMurtry on bars. At least she has a same-bar release this year.



Kathy is not OK with these piked giants. The judges are. The interesting thing is that McMurtry gets a heaping load of side-eye for this bars routine every time because she gets such high scores, but if she were going, say, 2nd or 3rd in the lineup and getting a 9.850 for this routine, we would be standing up and applauding for how much she has improved on bars from her Level 10 career, when she was getting 8s for hit routines. Compare her 10.000 to this routine from the Nastia in 2013, which scored 8.925, uninspiring even by JO scoring standards. Improvements, clearly.



But let's be honest, the biggest difference between 2013 and 2016 is going 6th in a Florida lineup. Many of the factors that got her an 8.925 remain, hence the saltiness about this 10.

And now Baker and Sloan.



Kennedy Baker is like, "This is the seventh-best floor routine I've done at Florida, and this is the 10?"



To the rankings!

Week 4 rankings

1. Florida – 197.438
Week 4: 198.175
Week 4 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.775; VT - Boren, Baker 9.950; UB - McMurtry 10.000; BB - Sloan 10.000; FX - Baker 10.000

2. Oklahoma – 197.185
Week 4: 197.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Capps 39.575; VT - Jones 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.900; FX - Jones 9.950

3. Michigan – 196.860
Week 4: 196.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Karas 39.525; VT - Karas, Chriarelli, Sheppard 9.850; UB - Brown 9.875; BB - Brown, Karas 9.875; FX - Artz 9.975

4. Alabama – 196.855
Week 4: 197.525
Week 4 leaders: AA - Beers 39.650; VT - Beers 9.900; UB - Beers 9.925; BB - Sims 9.975; FX - Winston 9.925

5. UCLA – 196.758
Week 4: Monday meet

6. LSU – 196.525
Week 4: 196.750
Week 4 leaders: AA - Gnat 39.500; VT - Gnat 10.000; UB - Finnegan, Zamardi 9.900; BB - Gnat 9.925; FX - Gnat, Finnegan 9.900

7. Utah – 196.342 
Week 4: Monday meet

8. Arkansas – 196.210
Week 4: 196.600
Week 4 leaders: AA - Wellick 39.500; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Wellick, Speed 9.850; BB - Wellick, Nelson 9.850; FX - Nelson 9.925

9. Boise State – 196.175
Week 4: 196.400
Week 4 leaders: AA - Collantes 39.475; VT - Stockwell 9.850; UB - Jacobsen 9.950; BB - Everyone 9.825; FX - Collantes, Krentz 9.950

10. Auburn – 196.080
Week 4: 195.975
Week 4 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.400; VT - Rott 9.900; UB - Milliet, Engler 9.875; BB - Demers 9.850; FX - Atkinson 9.900

#1 Oklahoma Preview

The final preview. We're going on fumes now. Soon, I won't have to use the word potential again for a whole year. Confetti. And also the meets will happen. That's fine too, I guess. Michigan is already out of the gates, winning Cancun with a 196.975, led by Artz and Karas 9.9ing all over the place. That'll do. Arkansas counted multiple falls. That won't do.

Roster
Brown, Natalie - Sophomore - BB, FX
Capps, Chayse - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Catour, Stefani - Sophomore - N/A
Craus, Samantha - Sophomore - UB
Hemry, Reagan - Junior - UB
Jackson, Ali - Sophomore - VT, FX (possible UB, BB)
Jones, Charity - Junior - VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Kanewa, Maile - Senior - VT, FX
Kmieciak, Keeley - VT, UB, BB (possible FX)
Lehrmann, Nicole - Freshman
Lovan, Kara - Junior - VT, BB, FX
Marks, Alex - Freshman
Price, Hunter - Senior - VT
Scaman, Haley - Senior - VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Thompson, Megan - Freshman
Turner, Nicole - Senior - FX
Wofford, McKenzie - Junior - UB  
 
Recent History
2015 - 3rd
2014 - 1st
2013 - 2nd
2012 - 7th
2011 - 3rd
2010 - 2nd

2016 Outlook
OK, Sooners. The coaches have spoken, and it's your turn to win this year. The coaches poll is binding. Weirdly, Oklahoma underperformed at Super Six last year, something we're not accustomed to seeing from this team when not ravaged by injury, though I wouldn't really use that as an indicator for how things will go this season. As has been the case every year since the breakthrough in 2010, Oklahoma ranks among the top couple favorites for the title, and given the team's penchant for starting quickly, Oklahoma is the best bet to spend the lion's share of the regular season at #1. The difference between being an easy Super Six bet (a given) and a title favorite this year, however, will lay in the team's ability to manage its sudden Dowellessness and overcome the depletion of the bars lineup, something Oklahoma has proven quite adept at in the past.

Winning this season will be more challenging than it has been in the past couple years because the Sooners have suffered a net routine loss from that 2015 third-place result, putting them in a position of now having to do more with less. Success in 2016 will be borne from developing existing routines into 9.9s they haven't been so far.

Key Competitor
Which brings me to Charity Jones. Jones came to Oklahoma at the tail end of those years when we were still sort of concerned about whether the team had enough power to wake the judges up out of their 9.850 comas (we were so young then). She was supposed to be a huge part of a power renaissance but has been perpetually MIA since then, competing just a bars routine or vault here and there at the very end of seasons. Now without Dowell, with Kanewa still on the comeback trail, and with a class of newbies more likely to make a mark on bars and beam, the team will be exceptionally reliant on someone like Jones to fill out the power-event lineups with competitive scores that keep the Sooners on the 49.5-everywhere track that has made them perennial title contenders. 

Vault


Brenna Dowell's 1.5+ vault repertoire would have been an asset this season, so it's natural to expect some dip in the scores without her. Still, Oklahoma retains enough important vaults that this should still be a top-5 vaulting team. (How many teams have I declared top-5 vaulting teams this year? Is it more than 5? I'M THE BEST.) Haley Scaman remains the star. She downgraded from the 1.5 for the scores a couple years ago, but she spent a whole season getting 9.875s for that 1.5 and can upgrade back to it no problem. It's worth it for her to go for the 1.5, but we'll have to see how well she scores for it compared to the 9.900-9.925s she could still get for a full this season. The landing must be there to make the 1.5 valuable. Ah, the strategy of it all. Regardless, it will be the important score in this lineup, along with Ali Jackson, who performed her 1.5 all last season and comfortably scored into the 9.9s for it.  

The remaining places look to be filled by fulls, unless the new values finally get Hunter Price into the lineup for her handspring pike 1/2. She's been borderline-lineup her whole career, so perhaps this will boost her into the group. Or perhaps not. The roster boasts more than enough options for fulls, so we'll just have to see who is the stickiest and amplitudiest, who can get into the high 9.8s and challenge for 9.9s instead of staying stuck at 9.800. Ideally, you'd have Kanewa on vault because her full is the best of the rest. Healthy Kanewa would be a lock for the lineup, and I'd definitely take Jones for her power (she did a DTY back in the JO days) and Capps for the way she opens out of that full. The team will also have fulls from Kmieciak, Marks, Lehrmann and Lovan that could all realistically go, so depth isn't an issue. The only issue would be getting stuck with too many vaults in the middish, lowish 9.8s (as many teams will because of the lowered values). Scaman and Jackson sticking for 9.950 is critical.

Bars


We don't usually expect events to look sparse for Oklahoma, but this one does. Relatively. Because otherwise critical contributors like Capps and Lovan won't be used on bars, there aren't as many options. In fact, the Sooners return just four people who competed even a single bars routines last year. The rest are "well, I guess she could," which will make the bars rotation in the opening meet against LSU the one to watch. Obviously, much depends upon Wofford. She is the most refined and impressive bars worker on the team and has developed into a pretty reliable 9.900-9.950. Without the luxury of a Dowell or Spears to help her out, she's going to have to get at least 9.900 pretty much every week.

Scaman and Kmieciak will both also return to the lineup, and because of Oklahoma, they're precise enough to hit 9.900 here and there. Though they're also more susceptible to a 9.825. Bars has been a 49.500-level strength for a while now, which means everyone gets a 9.900, so to keep Oklahoma within sight of that lofty goal, Lehrmann and Marks need to become not just options but reliably significant scores. Both do have the skill set and surplus toe point to become exceptional bars workers and fit right into this lineup. Mark just joined the team recently, so we'll see how long it takes to develop that routine, but bars was Lehrmann's best event in JO, so look for her to get serious.

#2 Oklahoma Preview

Recent History
From the time K.J. Kindler took over as head coach in 2006, Oklahoma has transformed from a team that occasionally made nationals and finished 12th, first into a perennial nationals qualifier (placing somewhere between 8th and 10th each year), then into a title contender (three top 3 finishes from 2010–2013), and finally last year into a champion. Well, co-champion, but I found it difficult to muster my usual abhorrence for ties (everyone's a winner!) because Oklahoma's first title was so well deserved as a reward for the tremendous progress made over the last decade. Plus, that means six teams have now won national championships, which is almost a normal amount of teams! Almost. Still work to do.   

2015 Outlook
Oklahoma actually managed to win the title a year earlier than I thought they would be able to. Back when we first started hearing about the 2015 incoming class (at that point Wofford was also part of this class), it seemed like 2015 would be the season Oklahoma finally broke through. They jumped the gun a little bit last year, but 2015 remains a pretty good bet for the Sooners to insanely-exaggerated-salute their way to another title. While a few significant scores are gone, last year's team remains largely intact, with four or five lineup routines returning on each event including thirteen of the seventeen 9.9s from that impressive Super Six performance.

The Sooners will most certainly be back in 2015 with their usual batch of ninja Level 10s who all excel on three events, plus the boost from the standout freshman class that we've been waiting for, featuring Brenna Dowell. It's a slight breach of Oklahoma etiquette that Dowell is a well-known elite instead of an obscure and suddenly amazing Level 10, but I think we'll all get past it somehow. We did for Hollie Vise and Natasha Kelley. The key to Dowell's success as an NCAA gymnast? Be less injured than Natasha Kelley. 

Oklahoma is going to be good this season (analysis!), but the path to winning these days is slightly different than we have come to expect for Oklahoma. They're in the midst of an identity transition. In years past, Oklahoma's success would come from staying close enough on vault and floor and then destroying everyone on bars and beam, but lately the Sooners have recruited gymnasts specifically to beef up those perceived weaknesses. Vault and floor were their highest scoring events in 2014, and this year's powerful freshman class makes Oklahoma's new status as a vault and floor team even more entrenched. Well, I shouldn't say vault and floor team. They're an every event team. Beam, obviously. But, they should be winning vault at the very least, and in 2015, the road to repeat likely includes being #1 in the country on the power events.

Vault


Returning lineup — Haley Scaman (9.940), Maile Kanewa (9.915), Keeley Kmieciak (9.905), Chayse Capps (9.900), Kara Lovan (9.870)

The reason for my bullishness about Oklahoma's vault should be pretty clear. They were exceptional already last year, finishing the regular season ranked #2 in the country, and the vault corps will be even better this season with the additions of Dowell and Ali Jackson. Dowell, of course, had a 2.5 as an elite and is currently working a 1.5 that is altogether too easy for her. Jackson also has a big-power 1.5 with impressive height and distance that has the makings of a high score. Remember when we used to worry about Oklahoma's difficulty and explosiveness on vault? Not so much anymore.

Those two would lead most lineup, but they're just the newbies joining an already strong group that contains at least a couple returning 9.950s. Haley Scaman has been the vault leader for this team, especially since downgrading to that beautiful full, which she can open out of and stick for the occasional 10. Maile Kanewa brings impressive power for consistent 9.900-9.950s, and while Chayse Capps has received attention mostly for her work on beam and floor, her distance and stickitude for yet more 9.9s on vault is just as essential to the team. Capps' best score often comes on vault. Just to add to the supply, Keeley Kmieciak recorded an RQS over 9.9 last year, Kara Lovan was an unexpected addition to the lineup who was usually clean for 9.850s, and even Hunter Price's front pike half is finally coming along. Depending on the injury status of Charity Jones, she's another one to watch. Jones seemed like an easy choice for the vault lineup before her injury last year considering that she competed a DTY in JO. You know it's a strong vault lineup when someone who used to have a DTY is almost an afterthought among the options. There will be 9.9s who fail to make the lineup this year, and 49.500s seem much more realistic than they ought to be. The other top vaulting teams will provide tough competition, but if Dowell and Jackson develop the kinds of landings they're capable of on their 1.5s, Oklahoma should be the best vault team in 2015. Not to oversell it or anything.

#3 Oklahoma Preview

Being ranked preseason #3 is a symbolically important step for the Oklahoma Sooners because it indicates that they have finally graduated from that best-of-the-rest status that saw them continually ranked #4 and viewed only as a spoiler to the big-name teams. They've now arrived, using another second place finish at Championships to break into the highest echelon.

Oklahoma was the most consistent team at Championships last year, the only one to avoid any scoring disasters, and probably ended up being a couple stuck vaults away from winning the title. Still, they needed a Florida beamtastrophe to be that close, so if they're hoping to do better than 2nd this year, they'll have to step up the scoring potential in key places, and that's just what this freshman class provides. While the team will certainly miss Brie Olson's significant contributions, McKenzie Wofford, Charity Jones, and Chayse Capps provide a net boost to fill in some of the areas that haven't previously measured up to the Floridas and Alabamas of the world. The Sooners have graduated from that spoiler status because this is the first year they have a team that can make a legitimate case of being a favorite that can win the title outright.

The reputation question looms over everything in this sport because it all comes down to judges' perceptions, and this reputation topic seems to surround discussions of Oklahoma's gymnastics far more than any other team. Does Oklahoma have the reputation to win? Ugh, I've decided I'm done with that tired line of reasoning. Issues of reputation are often overstated in NCAA gymnastics in how much they actually influence results, and I've been guilty of that. Oklahoma is getting 198s at home, has had years of top-three finishes and massive scores at Nationals, and enjoys huge adoration within the gymnastics community. Oh, to have such little reputation. I promise I will not use the words "reputation" and "Oklahoma" in the same sentence again this season. Call me on it if I do.

Vault:


Oklahoma received some very high scores on vault at home last season, occasionally misleadingly high, that produced a few unrealistic expectations for their capabilities as a vaulting team. The Sooners were a solid 49.350, give or take some sticks, but they were not really a 49.500 team. Keeping pace with the best teams on vault was always going to be one of the bigger challenges, as it has been for several seasons.

Freshman Meet and Greet: Oklahoma

When this 2014 signing class started to take shape for the Sooners, it became clear that this class would signal Oklahoma's official entry into a new category: favorite. This is no longer the group of plucky little underdog overlooked Level 10s supporting an elite or two already put out to pasture by the wider gymnastics community. These are many of the top recruits in the country, and the 2014 Oklahoma roster is stacked. It's no longer adorable when Oklahoma finishes second at Nationals like it was in 2010. It's an expectation.

The Sooners will benefit from a huge infusion of depth this season, losing Brie Olson's 3.5 routines (beam was always touch and go) but gaining five gymnasts capable as a group of putting together something like 11-14 routines that could at least contend to make competition lineups. There are some fascinating decisions ahead. It could be another year of few AAers and a bunch of people each contributing on two events. Even someone like Taylor Spears may not get a ton of time as an AAer because . . . does she make this vault lineup now? Let's begin.

McKenzie Wofford was a standout junior elite for a couple of years early in the last quad. She wasn't simply a member of the second tier of elites but was legitimately discussed as a potential future bars solution who could compete at the highest levels. Then, she had some #WOGAProblems and gym switching times, and it became clear that Level 10/NCAA was the ultimate path for her. She did hang on to compete elite in the 2012 season and scored well on bars but wasn't in a position to hit the other events well enough to qualify to Trials. This year, she competed as a Level 10 and finished 4th in Senior C at Nationals, winning bars and placing highly on beam.

Vault - 2012 elite


Bars - 2013 JO Nationals