The #2 team in the country, Oklahoma, will have to trek north to Minnesota for a regional that looks like it will be a tight battle between Illinois and Minnesota for the second spot to advance to nationals. This meet is one of the later starts (7 ET/4 PT), so the Illinois/Minnesota storyline will probably finish out the day be the very last nationals spot decided.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Oklahoma (bye before bars)
[11] Illinois (bye before floor)
[14] Minnesota (vault)
[19] California (floor)
[26] Southern Utah (bars)
[31] San Jose State (beam)
Competing individuals are from Iowa (Alie Glover, Angel Metcalf, Sydney Hoerr, Jordyn Doherty - vault, Mollie Drenth - floor), Air Force (Linnaea Hance, Katie Hawthorne - bars, Shannen Kelly - beam), and Wisconsin-Whitewater (Katie Fiorilli).
The Favorite
We're falling into a few ruts when it comes to rankings. Florida enters regionals as the #1 team for the fourth straight year, and Oklahoma is the #2 team for the third straight year. And much like Florida, Oklahoma should advance with ease. Minnesota's season high of 197.250, top among the other teams, would be considered a bad meet for the Sooners, who haven't put up a score below that level since February. For these top few seeds, regionals are about what we want to see heading into nationals.
It's interesting that we have this collective sense of Oklahoma as a bars and beam, and it comes because visually and anecdotally, that's where they have excelled. Those routines have been the more memorable and more exciting ones. However, Oklahoma has ranked consistently well on vault and floor over the past five years, claiming the #1 ranking on both events from time to time, so to see them in the top 3 on all the events this year is not unusual and, in terms of basic results, isn't really a change. What would be a change would be seeing them score more competitively at nationals on those events, which they have not always done (5th on vault and floor at Super Six 2013). We won't really get an answer to how competitive this Oklahoma team is on those events until nationals, but there is still a sense that they have progressed, with underclassmen like Scaman, Kanewa, and Capps providing a boost of power - Capps with that extra distance on vault, Kanewa with that extra big E pass on floor to support Scaman's excellent DLO - that makes them somewhat less reliant on sticking to get the scores. Though the early lineup routines will still have to be very precise to stay in range of everyone. A few of those early floor routines looked distinctly 9.800 at Big 12s.
But for all the competitive scoring on vault and floor that we have seen this year from Oklahoma, I still think it's going to take winning bars and beam for them to win a national championship. For the time being, that's still this roster's bread and butter. They may be competitive on vault and floor, but bars and beam - especially beam - is where they will have a chance to separate themselves from any other team. That's what I want to see at regionals. A team that can win bars and beam at nationals.
Showing posts with label San Jose St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Jose St. Show all posts
March 30, 2014
April 5, 2012
Salt Lake City Regional Preview
Our 5/8/17 Regional will take place at the University of Utah at 8:00 ET / 5:00 PT and will feature [5] Nebraska, [8] Utah, [17] Minnesota, [24] Iowa State, [28] Arizona State, and [35] San Jose State
The Favorites:
Unlike the other Regionals previewed so far, this one really could go either way between the top two seeds. Just a few weeks ago, Nebraska defeated Utah in Salt Lake City in a high-scoring affair. It won't take a fall for one of these two teams to fall behind the other; it will come down to the landings. Both Nebraska and Utah should advance easily, so there may not be much drama at this meet. Yet, it will be a matter of pride for Utah to avenge the home loss from a few weeks ago. Losing twice to Nebraska at home is not the tone the Utes want to set entering Nationals.
The Huskers are coming off a victory at Big Tens where they were never legitimately challenged and ended up beating Ohio State by nearly nine tenths. The team has found its core group of seven competitors, and while an injury to any one of them would be devastating, they look solid for the time being. The issue for Nebraska, as it has been for a while, is their status as a three-event team. DeZiel, Giblin, Wong, and Evenstad are all capable of going 9.900 on two or three events, but all of the sudden the wheels fall off the wagon and scatter into a gully once the team goes to beam, where falls and 9.700s are all too often the order of the day. If they can stay competitive on beam (even a 48.8-48.9 is OK), then I give the team at least a fair shot at winning again.
Utah had a strange little meet at Pac-12s. One of the stranger parts was that, for the first time since 2010, the Utes counted a fall on the beam. With Stanford counting a fall and UCLA under-performing, Utah had no business losing this met at home, but the falls from Lopez and Lofgren put them just behind the Bruins. However, because it was such a rare error, I don't expect it to repeat at Regionals. I do, however, expect to see similar scoring to what we saw at Pac-12s, where the judges were hyper-focused on landings without giving as much notice to the other qualities of the routines. If Utah sticks the way they did two weeks ago, expect a similar scoring situation (as in 13 scores of 9.900+ over 24 routines). The Utes will start on floor, so if they go 49.500 again, don't expect the Huskers to catch up.
The Favorites:
Unlike the other Regionals previewed so far, this one really could go either way between the top two seeds. Just a few weeks ago, Nebraska defeated Utah in Salt Lake City in a high-scoring affair. It won't take a fall for one of these two teams to fall behind the other; it will come down to the landings. Both Nebraska and Utah should advance easily, so there may not be much drama at this meet. Yet, it will be a matter of pride for Utah to avenge the home loss from a few weeks ago. Losing twice to Nebraska at home is not the tone the Utes want to set entering Nationals.
The Huskers are coming off a victory at Big Tens where they were never legitimately challenged and ended up beating Ohio State by nearly nine tenths. The team has found its core group of seven competitors, and while an injury to any one of them would be devastating, they look solid for the time being. The issue for Nebraska, as it has been for a while, is their status as a three-event team. DeZiel, Giblin, Wong, and Evenstad are all capable of going 9.900 on two or three events, but all of the sudden the wheels fall off the wagon and scatter into a gully once the team goes to beam, where falls and 9.700s are all too often the order of the day. If they can stay competitive on beam (even a 48.8-48.9 is OK), then I give the team at least a fair shot at winning again.
Utah had a strange little meet at Pac-12s. One of the stranger parts was that, for the first time since 2010, the Utes counted a fall on the beam. With Stanford counting a fall and UCLA under-performing, Utah had no business losing this met at home, but the falls from Lopez and Lofgren put them just behind the Bruins. However, because it was such a rare error, I don't expect it to repeat at Regionals. I do, however, expect to see similar scoring to what we saw at Pac-12s, where the judges were hyper-focused on landings without giving as much notice to the other qualities of the routines. If Utah sticks the way they did two weeks ago, expect a similar scoring situation (as in 13 scores of 9.900+ over 24 routines). The Utes will start on floor, so if they go 49.500 again, don't expect the Huskers to catch up.
January 22, 2012
Live Blog - San Jose St. @ UCLA
Watch Live
We've had a bit of a topsy-turvy weekend, which always makes everything more interesting. Nebraska came back to the field a bit, and Florida and Alabama continued to low 196 their way through January, but Arkansas maintained their upward trajectory, and Oklahoma finally arrived. Oklahoma should be even more pleased with their season-leading 197.450 because it was a road score, which will be very valuable when RQS comes into play.
As it stands now, Arkansas should take over the #1 ranking on Monday from an idle Utah (196.775 to 196.713 average score). UCLA has an outside shot at taking the top spot, but they would have to score 197.600 today to do so. It's possible but highly unlikely. Let's just go for 24/24, shall we? UCLA does, however, have a prime opportunity to move into the #3 or #4 spot with Nebraska, Oregon St, Alabama, and Georgia all dropping points (in average) this weekend. The big ranking loser of the weekend was Michigan, whose 193.150 will see them plummet. Still no official word on Beilstein's injury, but it can't be good. I think we call this a rebuilding year.
For UCLA, the huge beam score (too huge, but a UCLA team hit 6/6 on beam in January, so let's just enjoy it) from last week should help their confidence to do it again. If they hit the first five routines well, I'd like to see Peszek's standing full come back in (the routine without it is a bit too easy for her skill level). Also important will be Mattie Larson's floor routine. She's been taking the marionette thing a bit too seriously when landing her passes, and she hasn't fully hit a floor routine in competition since August 2010. That kind of thing wears on you. She needs to get hitting immediately. On vault, the judges at Cal broke the 10 barrier for Zamarripa, so now we can expect to start seeing them every time she sticks at home.
Live commentary after the jump
We've had a bit of a topsy-turvy weekend, which always makes everything more interesting. Nebraska came back to the field a bit, and Florida and Alabama continued to low 196 their way through January, but Arkansas maintained their upward trajectory, and Oklahoma finally arrived. Oklahoma should be even more pleased with their season-leading 197.450 because it was a road score, which will be very valuable when RQS comes into play.
As it stands now, Arkansas should take over the #1 ranking on Monday from an idle Utah (196.775 to 196.713 average score). UCLA has an outside shot at taking the top spot, but they would have to score 197.600 today to do so. It's possible but highly unlikely. Let's just go for 24/24, shall we? UCLA does, however, have a prime opportunity to move into the #3 or #4 spot with Nebraska, Oregon St, Alabama, and Georgia all dropping points (in average) this weekend. The big ranking loser of the weekend was Michigan, whose 193.150 will see them plummet. Still no official word on Beilstein's injury, but it can't be good. I think we call this a rebuilding year.
For UCLA, the huge beam score (too huge, but a UCLA team hit 6/6 on beam in January, so let's just enjoy it) from last week should help their confidence to do it again. If they hit the first five routines well, I'd like to see Peszek's standing full come back in (the routine without it is a bit too easy for her skill level). Also important will be Mattie Larson's floor routine. She's been taking the marionette thing a bit too seriously when landing her passes, and she hasn't fully hit a floor routine in competition since August 2010. That kind of thing wears on you. She needs to get hitting immediately. On vault, the judges at Cal broke the 10 barrier for Zamarripa, so now we can expect to start seeing them every time she sticks at home.
Live commentary after the jump
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