#4 Utah Preview

Roster
Delaney, Kailah - Senior - VT (possible BB, FX)
Hughes, Breanna - Senior - VT, UB (possible BB, FX)
Lange, Haley - Senior - N/A
Lee, Kari - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Lewis, Tiffani - Sophomore - VT, UB, FX
Lopez, Kassandra - Senior - UB, BB
McNatt, Shannon - Freshman
Merrell, MaKenna - Freshman
Muhaw, Erika - Freshman
Partyka, Samantha - Sophomore - VT
Rowe, Baely - Junior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Schwab, Sabrina - Freshman
Stover, Maddy - Sophomore - BB

Recent History
2015 - 2nd
2014 - 8th
2013 - 9th
2012 - 5th
2011 - 5th
2010 - 6th

2016 Outlook
The Utes couldn't have hoped to do any better than they did at last season's Marsden farewell celebration tour when the 49.5s suddenly poured straight out of the sky, but in the cold light of an onrushing 2016, things look very different. The holes in this roster are suddenly large and everywhere. Basically, Megan and Tom have to reconstruct half a team, and by necessity, returning gymnasts will be expected to compete events they weren't making last season. That's usually a recipe for regression, so don't expect the same result as in 2015 (though no one really expected it in 2015 either).

The 2016 team we saw at the Red Rocks Preview does possess enough depth to put together competitive lineups, but without too, too many stars/stars-in-the-making, this looks like another season in which Utah will have to workmanlike-9.850 the other contending teams into submission to make it back to Super Six. That strategy has worked plenty of times before. The mission for Utah is to show more depth, constancy, and durability through whole lineups than Pac-12 peers UCLA and Stanford, who will have more 9.9s but may struggle to fill out the entire lineup with competitive scores.

Key Competitor
One underclassman who did emerge as a new bright light amidst that Dabritz/Lothrop ticker-tape parade of a 2015 season was Kari Lee. Most significantly, she brought an elevated level of extension and refinement that had been missing from the beam lineup, but she also has an exceptionally clean and stickable full on vault, a 9.900 floor routine, and a sufficiently usable bars routine that may actually be needed this year. Suddenly this season, she has become the most impressive gymnast on the roster, and she'll have to lead the charge in creating the big nest of new 9.9s Utah needs to succeed in 2016.

Vault 


Vault was a tremendous strength for Utah last season, pushing the team right into the vicinity of a title with a whole host of 9.925s and controlled landings (that survived all the way to the championship instead of disappearing around February!). In 2016, however, there's more reason to question Utah's viability as a vault powerhouse because of the changes in roster and start value. Kailah Delaney is the one remaining member of the 9.950-a-trons, and while she will once again be an essential component of the lineup, her vault remains a full. That means she'll be looking at something closer to 9.875-9.900s most weeks, useful scores but not dominant scores.

The member of Utah's team who will benefit the most from the new vault values is Breanna Hughes. I remember when Hughes first arrived at Utah and I was all up in her 1.5 being a centerpiece of the vault lineup. That never happened even a little, but it has always been a solid vault and one that she stuck in the RRP. This is finally her year to become a vaulter. The coaches should put her difficulty 5th with Delaney 6th to push that Delaney score up as much as possible. Note that you're going to get very sick of me complaining about vault lineup orders this season. MaKenna Merrell also had a 1.5 in JO, though she showed just a full in the preview, which makes sense because the full was only OK. I'm not sold on her difficulty or placement in the lineup as yet. She might get Hughesed for a while.

The rest of the lineup will be fulls, unless McNatt and her Omelianchik materialize. Kari Lee will certainly be back for 9.850-9.875s since her full is second-best to Delaney's. Beyond that, a collective of 9.825-9.850 fulls will compete for the remaining three (or so) spots including Lewis, Partyka, Rowe, and Muhaw. It's a solid contingent, but losing the Dabritz and Wilson vaults will most certainly be felt in the scores. I still like this lineup for an RQS around 49.350, but it doesn't look like the 49.5s of recent days.

Bars


I should probably refrain from writing this section because reality has proven that I just don't get it with Utah's bars and the scoring. It eludes me. Right now, I look at the nine or ten options Utah has on bars this year, and they all look around 9.800-9.850 to me. Which means they'll go 49.600 at nationals. But still, it seems inevitable that the Utes will experience a noticeable drop-off post-Dabritz because, you know, there's not another auto-10 just hanging out on the roster. Given the lost routines, ending up a couple tenths lower than last year's bars scores seems a realistic outlook.

A lot of these routine options look pretty similar right now, so expect some mixing and matching with the ultimate lineup spots determined by stickability. The stalwarts should be Lopez, who has been a bars constant for a thousand years and has always scored well, and Baely Rowe, who was a reliable 9.850 all last season. Across the whole team, though, Rowe's bars work looked the most improved at this year's preview, with a better finishing position on her full turn, tidy legs on the bail, and a stuck DLO, so I could see her scoring higher this season. As for the new ones, I'm most looking forward to seeing Sabrina Schwab develop as a bars worker. She has the best line and toe point on the roster, so if they can put together competitive difficulty for her with a dismount she can stick, she'll be a future bars star. In the present, she at least needs to be an integral early-mid lineup piece.

Freshman Notes: Florida and Utah

Let's continue the mission of chopping a path through the 2015 freshmen by moving on to Florida and Utah. The Gators and the Utes boast two more large incoming classes, both bursting with all-arounders who are pretty believable on all four events. For most of them, their eventual contribution will come down more to the depth of team lineups than to their capability to put together a competitive routine. 

FLORIDA


The Gators are defending co-champions, and once again there's no reason to demote them from that #1 spot. Despite losing two major contributors and well-known former elites in Mackenzie Caquatto and Alaina Johnson (along with their seven 9.9-likely routines from last postseason) Florida is still able to pad the depth wagon this season with four new contributors, who bring with them more than seven lineup-worthy routines to replace those lost scores. Managing to lose stars without losing scores is the sign of a dynasty. Florida has two titles in a row, and three is very possible. 

We'll start at the top, with Kennedy Baker from Texas Dreams. Baker was an elite for many years and qualified to Olympic Trials in 2012 before dropping down to L10 this year to prepare for Florida. Baker has damn huge gymnastics, and while it's hard to predict a four-event contributor on Florida's team because of the sheer number of quality options, I see her sliding in on each event. 

Vault


Bars


Beam


Floor


Floor is my favorite event for Baker, almost entirely because of that killer piked double arabian. It's tremendous, and I can't wait to see that in her routine this year. Pair that skill with her regular double arabian on floor and her excellent Patterson beam dismount, and her portfolio of arabian work is historically good. Florida dropped off just a tad in showing big bad difficulty on floor last year (more front double fulls, fewer DLOs), but Baker will help bring that back in 2015 with her easy power. Not that it stopped them from getting 49.999s last year anyway.