Now comes the point in the year when we must attempt to wrench ourselves out of an NCAA mindset and pay attention to the elite world again. We're little more than a month away from Classic now, so the Mad Max remake that masquerades as the US Olympic selection process is soon to reach its familiarly feverish levels. "Do we actually need a bars specialist?" he asks, sharpening an abandoned femur into a spear.
As a bridge between the two worlds, I periodically like to take the results of past US elite competitions and examine how the gymnasts ranked at that point compared to how they would eventually fare in NCAA a few years later. Who rises? Who falls? Who is like the mousy girl in the high school movie who takes off her glasses and suddenly turns beautiful in the NCAA code? Who was using elite difficulty to mask deficiencies that are exposed in college? As we know, success in elite and success in NCAA do not have a 1:1 relationship.
Today, I have taken the various AA and event results from the 2012 Visa Championships (Visa Championships...feels so long ago. Like the John Hancock US Championships, which were basically contemporaneous with John Hancock) and bolded the gymnasts who competed in NCAA at some point after this competition (so I didn't include Anna Li since she's a category all her own). A number of items jump out.
All-around
1. Wieber – 69.650/61.250
2. Douglas – 60.650/61.050
3. Raisman – 69.200/69.750
4. Ross – 59.750/60.200
5. Price – 59.600/58.500
6. Finnegan – 59.150/58.450
7. Vega – 56.500/57.950
8. Baker – 58.050/56.400
9. Dowell – 55.7800/56.900
10. Sloan – 56.250/56.150
11. Milliet – 55.250/55.150
12. Brown – 54.200/55.500
13. McLaughlin – 55.400/53.150
14. Jetter – 53.550/54.850
15. Skinner – 55.550/51.600
16. Jay – 52.550/53.150
17. Wofford – 51.900/53.350
Fewer than half of the future NCAA gymnasts who competed AA at the 2012 championships continued to do AA in college (and only two or three of the eleven have been full-time AAers for multiple seasons), which helps illustrate the danger of assuming NCAA dominance for all elites. Those who continue at the same strength as all-arounders, your Sloans and Prices and Bakers, are the exception more than the rule. Instead, we have the usual random smattering of competition and success levels, ranging from barely-one-event status to best-in-the-country status. But what's of most interest here is the reason they're not competing AA in college.
We tend to assume that the biggest obstacle for elites transitioning to NCAA is health, that they all would be top-ranked gems if their bodies weren't halfway to the glue factory by now after so many trips to Martha's Texas Adventure. While that's true in several cases, many are relatively healthy but simply not making all the lineups. Even someone who counts in the all-around category like Brianna Brown probably wouldn't have done AA this year if Casanova had been available, and Brandie Jay spent three years not even getting close to Georgia's beam lineup, not because of health but because of "Aaahh, beam!" In her 2015 season at Oklahoma, Dowell was in a similar position to Jay. Sometimes, in spite of an elite pedigree and strong rankings through the age of 18, gymnasts are just not top six on their NCAA teams, even on events that were elite strengths.
In breaking down some of the specific rankings, I'm not taking Sloan into account much because she wasn't up to her full level during 2012, so this isn't really reflective of her standing in the elite world the way 2008 and 2009 were. It's not like Sloan was some middle-of-the-pack elite who suddenly bloomed in college.
Brandie Jay is one who leapfrogged many of her higher-ranked elite peers to become a bigger and more influential contributor in NCAA than she was in elite, finishing largely on par with the likes of Kennedy Baker, who was a higher scorer and more compelling contender during the end of the last quad. Jay is probably the best example here of someone whose dominant years were still ahead of her in 2012.
Finnegan is also an interesting case because if we were to judge her freshman year by the second-behind-Price standard that 2012 gave us, the 2016 season would be considered somewhat average and not the dominance and team-leading influence normally expected of an Olympic alternate. Yet, having gone through years of "does she do gymnastics?" in between, her three events of 9.850-9.900 and ability to leg-event at all this season are a somewhat unexpected and welcome revelation. A lot happens between elite and NCAA, and we don't often maintain expectations for NCAA based on elite results, especially for certain types of gymnasts. I don't think many would say Abby Milliet's NCAA career has been disappointing so far, but she's certainly not top-6 AA level. Even before Grace McLaughlin started at Florida, she was at "maybe a beam routine?" status, not AA-queen status.
A lot of this does come down to injury history/gymnastics style. We tend to maintain elite expectations for gymnasts with Raisman legs who look like they can hold up to four more years of gymnastics, but with the fragile-looking spinny twisties, we're just happy to see a routine at some point, even if it's an exhibition bars. We're like, "Good for her! I can see knees! She still has them!"
It's worth noting that there are no "whoops, I broke and then disappeared into witness protection without another word" gymnasts in this AA collection, which is encouraging. Everyone either made the Olympics and turned pro, did NCAA, or will do NCAA. The only one in the whole 2012 competition who doesn't fit into those categories is Bross. There are usually more.
Vault (one vault, two days)
1. Wieber 15.650/15.900
2. Price 15.800/15.600
3. Douglas 15.350/15.800
4. Sacramone 15.450/15.500
5. Raisman 15.450/15.300
6. Ross 15.100/15.250
7. Finnegan 15.000/14.900
8. Baker 14.650/14.800
9. Skinner 14.550/14.600
10. Jay 14.600/14.500
11. Dowell 14.250/14.700
12. Vega 14.100/14.500
13. Jetter 14.100/14.150
14. Milliet 14.050/14.150
15. Brown 13.950/14.100
16. McLaughlin 13.800/14.200
17. Sloan 13.850/14.150
18. Brannan 13.800/14.150
19. Wofford 12.000/12.200
Showing posts with label Kennedy Baker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kennedy Baker. Show all posts
April 27, 2016
April 13, 2016
National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)
Individuals are the worst.
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.
Bridget Sloan – Florida
RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775
Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?
Elizabeth Price – Stanford
RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675
If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It's all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other's backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I'm just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday's individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday's competitions live, even though...what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it's not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let's be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we'll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that's Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it's Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We'll go with Capps. On floor, it's Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That's tougher. They'll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We'll all have a good shot of winning because I'm sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers...
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they'll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I'll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them.
Bridget Sloan – Florida
RQS: 39.630
High: 39.775
Obvi. We could probably just leave it here. Sloan has been the favorite to win the AA every year of her college career, and now, in her final competition, she's basically rolling to the title and would probably need to make an actual error to be denied. We have seen that happen this year. Probably too many times, but she's predominately in the driver's seat given her scoring potential across all four events and status as Bridget Sloan. Could not starting from 10.0 on vault hurt her?
Elizabeth Price – Stanford
RQS: 39.570
High: 39.675
If Bridget Sloan hits her ideal all-around, the one person in this competition who could still beat her is Price. Similarly to Sloan, Price does not have a weak event, though her beam score has mostly been stuck in the 9.8s this year, largely the result of a challenging dismount. That's where Sloan will be expected to score higher (unless those beam woes return), but Price's DTY on vault should get rewarded and can lift her ahead of Sloan there. Price, however, does not have the same scores building up to her routines from Stanford that Sloan does from Florida and is less likely to get a "lineup score" as a result.
February 1, 2016
Week 4 Rankings + Notes
That Florida gymnastics isn't marketing a shirt that says, "On Fridays, we get 10s" is ludicrous. Verging on lyyyyyudicrous. Florida's meet was the closest to a postseason-level performance we've seen so far this year (closest, but not there by any means), and now the Gators lead the rankings by a big, heaping margin this week with that 687.900 (because of Florida at home), highlighted by a "yeah, I'm down with that" 10.000 for Bridget Sloan on beam, a "squint...but also that Dos Santos" 10.000 for Kennedy Baker on floor, and a "Bahahahaha" 10.000 for Alex McMurtry on bars. At least she has a same-bar release this year.
Kathy is not OK with these piked giants. The judges are. The interesting thing is that McMurtry gets a heaping load of side-eye for this bars routine every time because she gets such high scores, but if she were going, say, 2nd or 3rd in the lineup and getting a 9.850 for this routine, we would be standing up and applauding for how much she has improved on bars from her Level 10 career, when she was getting 8s for hit routines. Compare her 10.000 to this routine from the Nastia in 2013, which scored 8.925, uninspiring even by JO scoring standards. Improvements, clearly.
But let's be honest, the biggest difference between 2013 and 2016 is going 6th in a Florida lineup. Many of the factors that got her an 8.925 remain, hence the saltiness about this 10.
And now Baker and Sloan.
Kennedy Baker is like, "This is the seventh-best floor routine I've done at Florida, and this is the 10?"
To the rankings!
Week 4 rankings
1. Florida – 197.438
Week 4: 198.175
Week 4 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.775; VT - Boren, Baker 9.950; UB - McMurtry 10.000; BB - Sloan 10.000; FX - Baker 10.000
2. Oklahoma – 197.185
Week 4: 197.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Capps 39.575; VT - Jones 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.900; FX - Jones 9.950
3. Michigan – 196.860
Week 4: 196.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Karas 39.525; VT - Karas, Chriarelli, Sheppard 9.850; UB - Brown 9.875; BB - Brown, Karas 9.875; FX - Artz 9.975
4. Alabama – 196.855
Week 4: 197.525
Week 4 leaders: AA - Beers 39.650; VT - Beers 9.900; UB - Beers 9.925; BB - Sims 9.975; FX - Winston 9.925
5. UCLA – 196.758
Week 4: Monday meet
6. LSU – 196.525
Week 4: 196.750
Week 4 leaders: AA - Gnat 39.500; VT - Gnat 10.000; UB - Finnegan, Zamardi 9.900; BB - Gnat 9.925; FX - Gnat, Finnegan 9.900
7. Utah – 196.342
Week 4: Monday meet
8. Arkansas – 196.210
Week 4: 196.600
Week 4 leaders: AA - Wellick 39.500; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Wellick, Speed 9.850; BB - Wellick, Nelson 9.850; FX - Nelson 9.925
9. Boise State – 196.175
Week 4: 196.400
Week 4 leaders: AA - Collantes 39.475; VT - Stockwell 9.850; UB - Jacobsen 9.950; BB - Everyone 9.825; FX - Collantes, Krentz 9.950
10. Auburn – 196.080
Week 4: 195.975
Week 4 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.400; VT - Rott 9.900; UB - Milliet, Engler 9.875; BB - Demers 9.850; FX - Atkinson 9.900
Kathy is not OK with these piked giants. The judges are. The interesting thing is that McMurtry gets a heaping load of side-eye for this bars routine every time because she gets such high scores, but if she were going, say, 2nd or 3rd in the lineup and getting a 9.850 for this routine, we would be standing up and applauding for how much she has improved on bars from her Level 10 career, when she was getting 8s for hit routines. Compare her 10.000 to this routine from the Nastia in 2013, which scored 8.925, uninspiring even by JO scoring standards. Improvements, clearly.
But let's be honest, the biggest difference between 2013 and 2016 is going 6th in a Florida lineup. Many of the factors that got her an 8.925 remain, hence the saltiness about this 10.
And now Baker and Sloan.
Kennedy Baker is like, "This is the seventh-best floor routine I've done at Florida, and this is the 10?"
To the rankings!
Week 4 rankings
1. Florida – 197.438
Week 4: 198.175
Week 4 leaders: AA - Sloan 39.775; VT - Boren, Baker 9.950; UB - McMurtry 10.000; BB - Sloan 10.000; FX - Baker 10.000
2. Oklahoma – 197.185
Week 4: 197.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Capps 39.575; VT - Jones 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps 9.900; FX - Jones 9.950
3. Michigan – 196.860
Week 4: 196.550
Week 4 leaders: AA - Karas 39.525; VT - Karas, Chriarelli, Sheppard 9.850; UB - Brown 9.875; BB - Brown, Karas 9.875; FX - Artz 9.975
4. Alabama – 196.855
Week 4: 197.525
Week 4 leaders: AA - Beers 39.650; VT - Beers 9.900; UB - Beers 9.925; BB - Sims 9.975; FX - Winston 9.925
5. UCLA – 196.758
Week 4: Monday meet
6. LSU – 196.525
Week 4: 196.750
Week 4 leaders: AA - Gnat 39.500; VT - Gnat 10.000; UB - Finnegan, Zamardi 9.900; BB - Gnat 9.925; FX - Gnat, Finnegan 9.900
7. Utah – 196.342
Week 4: Monday meet
8. Arkansas – 196.210
Week 4: 196.600
Week 4 leaders: AA - Wellick 39.500; VT - Wellick 9.900; UB - Wellick, Speed 9.850; BB - Wellick, Nelson 9.850; FX - Nelson 9.925
9. Boise State – 196.175
Week 4: 196.400
Week 4 leaders: AA - Collantes 39.475; VT - Stockwell 9.850; UB - Jacobsen 9.950; BB - Everyone 9.825; FX - Collantes, Krentz 9.950
10. Auburn – 196.080
Week 4: 195.975
Week 4 leaders: AA - Atkinson 39.400; VT - Rott 9.900; UB - Milliet, Engler 9.875; BB - Demers 9.850; FX - Atkinson 9.900
January 1, 2016
#2 Florida Preview
It's almost here! False start weekend is nearly upon us, with Michigan, Arkansas, and Iowa off on a Cancun vacation with a gymnastics meet in it (1/2, 7:15 ET/4:15 PT) and Central Michigan getting started on Sunday (1/3, 1:00 ET/10:00 PT). For the rest, there's still time, but if you haven't yet picked your fantasy gym team, pull your life together because the deadline is Sunday. I really need to work on my draft order. It's a shambles.
Roster
Baker, Kennedy - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Boren, Alicia - Freshman
Boyce, Claire - Junior - UB, BB, FX
Caquatto, Bridgey - Senior - VT, UB, FX
Cheney, Amanda - Freshman
Dagen, Lacy - Freshman
Dancose-Giambattisto, Bianca - Senior - UB (possible BB)
Ernst, Peyton - Freshman
Fassbender, Ericha - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Frazier, Morgan - Senior - N/A
Hiller, Ashley - Freshman
McLaughlin, Grace - Sophomore - BB (possible UB, FX)
McMurtry, Alex - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB (possible FX?)
Sloan, Bridget - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Recent History
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 1st
2012 - 2nd
2011 - 7th
2010 - 5th
2016 Outlook
Three consecutive championships and a predominately (though not entirely) intact roster pretty much tells the story for Florida, a team that should consider anything other than a fourth title an unacceptable result this season. The two serious questions about the Gators' chances in 2016 concern their ability to replace Kytra Hunter's scores and the new coaching staff/absence of Rhonda Power, but with a freshman class talented enough to bring its own respectable bag of 9.9s and what is basically an all-star team of the nation's top assistant coaches now at the helm, neither of those would be particularly convincing excuses for not winning. That's not to say Florida is guaranteed to continue on the same not-losing path, but at this point there's no good reason to expect real regression.
Key Competitor
Alicia Boren. It is essential this season that Florida find a person (or combination of people) to replicate what Kytra brought on vault and at least come close to replicating what she brought on floor, along with shoring up an occasionally too 9.850-9.875 beam lineup. With Ernst in the process of putting herself back together post-elite, that responsibility will primarily fall to Boren. She's quite capable of being that gymnast, and her abilities on the power events should place her toward the end of both lineups right away. She is among the critical freshmen in the nation this year because without her replacing those lost scores, the Gators won't have the comfortable collection of surplus 9.9s that has led them to success—even on just OK days—these past four years and will feel the pressure from Oklahoma and Alabama.
Vault
Florida started slowly on vault last season, to some extent by design, but was ultimately able to deliver a 49.450-49.500 lineup replete with enough 9.9s to rank consistently among the top few vaulting teams. That should continue this year led by four vaulters who all look like reliable 9.9 options. Sloan, Boren, and Baker each have a 1.5 to keep the Gators at a competitive SV level, the most appealing aspect of these 1.5s being that they're not "possible, maybe, she has in the past" vaults like many I've discussed in these previews. They have them, and they're good. McMurtry appears to be staying with the full, even though she could do more, which is a sensible choice because her full is among the few that can still go 9.900-9.950 this season. Expect more stuck yfulls to score 9.950 this year because it's not THE TEN. The judges won't be as guarded about giving a yfull a perfect score because a perfect 9.950 doesn't stand out nearly as much as a 10.
Those four are locks and should keep this lineup on pace at 49.4 in spite of the SV decreases and loss of Hunter. Perhaps a half tenth to a tenth lower than last season, but not much more than that. The question is the remaining two spots, which were a bit of an issue last year and look entirely up for grabs right now, especially if Ernst doesn't come along right away. With this roster, they'll be able to produce perfectly fine 9.8s for any remaining spots, but the scoring onus will remain on the big four. Fassbender was borderline-lineup all last season and seems a fair bet to have a bigger role this year. As for Bridgey, she's pretty much always in this lineup but has become progressively more troubling on vault as the seasons go by, getting taken out of the lineup for a while last year and ultimately falling in Super Six. Bridgey's important scores are bars and floor, so if other compelling vault options present themselves, it may make sense just to take her off the event to avoid any issues. If the chance does arise, look for possible lineup upset bids from Hiller and Cheney who both performed quite respectable fulls in JO.
Bars
The bars lineup remains the most intact from last season, so we should have pretty much identical expectations to the scores Florida received in 2015. Bridget Sloan is the Bridget Sloan of this lineup, always getting at least 9.900, then in line for a 9.950-10.000 depending on whether she sticks and whether it's one of her bail-legs days. Sloan is on a streak of 22 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.900 (and she was only as low as 9.900 four times in that span) and a streak of 37 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.875. She hasn't scored lower than that since a fall on January 13th, 2013. So she's OK at bars.
Sloan's #2 is Bridgey, who isn't quite as likely to score 9.9+ because she's somewhat less consistent on the landing, but she still reaches 9.900 pretty regularly. With those two hitting, Florida's bars shouldn't be scoring under 49.400 and can believably go 49.5s. For my money, this is the best bars lineup in the country. (Really going out on a limb there.) The interesting one to watch will be McMurtry, who has commenced Operation Haters To The Left in response to that time she scored a surrealist fantasy of a 9.950 in Super Six and we all got lost in a sandstorm about it. She's suddenly pulling out a high, well-executed Ray that exists now and could help complete her two-year transformation from "a little Brestyan's-y" to bars star. With the Ray and her dismount, there's no reason to think McMurtry won't continue getting 9.9s this year, especially if Jenny maintains Rhonda's lineup strategy, but we'll get to that more on floor.
Roster
Baker, Kennedy - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Boren, Alicia - Freshman
Boyce, Claire - Junior - UB, BB, FX
Caquatto, Bridgey - Senior - VT, UB, FX
Cheney, Amanda - Freshman
Dagen, Lacy - Freshman
Dancose-Giambattisto, Bianca - Senior - UB (possible BB)
Ernst, Peyton - Freshman
Fassbender, Ericha - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB, FX
Frazier, Morgan - Senior - N/A
Hiller, Ashley - Freshman
McLaughlin, Grace - Sophomore - BB (possible UB, FX)
McMurtry, Alex - Sophomore - VT, UB, BB (possible FX?)
Sloan, Bridget - Senior - VT, UB, BB, FX
Recent History
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 1st
2012 - 2nd
2011 - 7th
2010 - 5th
2016 Outlook
Three consecutive championships and a predominately (though not entirely) intact roster pretty much tells the story for Florida, a team that should consider anything other than a fourth title an unacceptable result this season. The two serious questions about the Gators' chances in 2016 concern their ability to replace Kytra Hunter's scores and the new coaching staff/absence of Rhonda Power, but with a freshman class talented enough to bring its own respectable bag of 9.9s and what is basically an all-star team of the nation's top assistant coaches now at the helm, neither of those would be particularly convincing excuses for not winning. That's not to say Florida is guaranteed to continue on the same not-losing path, but at this point there's no good reason to expect real regression.
Key Competitor
Alicia Boren. It is essential this season that Florida find a person (or combination of people) to replicate what Kytra brought on vault and at least come close to replicating what she brought on floor, along with shoring up an occasionally too 9.850-9.875 beam lineup. With Ernst in the process of putting herself back together post-elite, that responsibility will primarily fall to Boren. She's quite capable of being that gymnast, and her abilities on the power events should place her toward the end of both lineups right away. She is among the critical freshmen in the nation this year because without her replacing those lost scores, the Gators won't have the comfortable collection of surplus 9.9s that has led them to success—even on just OK days—these past four years and will feel the pressure from Oklahoma and Alabama.
Vault
Florida started slowly on vault last season, to some extent by design, but was ultimately able to deliver a 49.450-49.500 lineup replete with enough 9.9s to rank consistently among the top few vaulting teams. That should continue this year led by four vaulters who all look like reliable 9.9 options. Sloan, Boren, and Baker each have a 1.5 to keep the Gators at a competitive SV level, the most appealing aspect of these 1.5s being that they're not "possible, maybe, she has in the past" vaults like many I've discussed in these previews. They have them, and they're good. McMurtry appears to be staying with the full, even though she could do more, which is a sensible choice because her full is among the few that can still go 9.900-9.950 this season. Expect more stuck yfulls to score 9.950 this year because it's not THE TEN. The judges won't be as guarded about giving a yfull a perfect score because a perfect 9.950 doesn't stand out nearly as much as a 10.
Those four are locks and should keep this lineup on pace at 49.4 in spite of the SV decreases and loss of Hunter. Perhaps a half tenth to a tenth lower than last season, but not much more than that. The question is the remaining two spots, which were a bit of an issue last year and look entirely up for grabs right now, especially if Ernst doesn't come along right away. With this roster, they'll be able to produce perfectly fine 9.8s for any remaining spots, but the scoring onus will remain on the big four. Fassbender was borderline-lineup all last season and seems a fair bet to have a bigger role this year. As for Bridgey, she's pretty much always in this lineup but has become progressively more troubling on vault as the seasons go by, getting taken out of the lineup for a while last year and ultimately falling in Super Six. Bridgey's important scores are bars and floor, so if other compelling vault options present themselves, it may make sense just to take her off the event to avoid any issues. If the chance does arise, look for possible lineup upset bids from Hiller and Cheney who both performed quite respectable fulls in JO.
Bars
The bars lineup remains the most intact from last season, so we should have pretty much identical expectations to the scores Florida received in 2015. Bridget Sloan is the Bridget Sloan of this lineup, always getting at least 9.900, then in line for a 9.950-10.000 depending on whether she sticks and whether it's one of her bail-legs days. Sloan is on a streak of 22 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.900 (and she was only as low as 9.900 four times in that span) and a streak of 37 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.875. She hasn't scored lower than that since a fall on January 13th, 2013. So she's OK at bars.
Sloan's #2 is Bridgey, who isn't quite as likely to score 9.9+ because she's somewhat less consistent on the landing, but she still reaches 9.900 pretty regularly. With those two hitting, Florida's bars shouldn't be scoring under 49.400 and can believably go 49.5s. For my money, this is the best bars lineup in the country. (Really going out on a limb there.) The interesting one to watch will be McMurtry, who has commenced Operation Haters To The Left in response to that time she scored a surrealist fantasy of a 9.950 in Super Six and we all got lost in a sandstorm about it. She's suddenly pulling out a high, well-executed Ray that exists now and could help complete her two-year transformation from "a little Brestyan's-y" to bars star. With the Ray and her dismount, there's no reason to think McMurtry won't continue getting 9.9s this year, especially if Jenny maintains Rhonda's lineup strategy, but we'll get to that more on floor.
February 2, 2015
Week 4 Rankings and Notes
Remember a few weeks ago when we were young and innocent little ducklings and thought, "Hey, some of the meets this year are being scored with a more discerning standard than we've become used to"? Yeah. Not that. We've now entered the portion of the season where a low-mid 197 is a medium score for a top team, and it takes a high 197 to constitute a standout meet, which is pretty much the same as the last season or two. Nothing changes. The circle of life. Or something. I don't know.
Two more people joined the 10 club this weekend, Ciera Perkins on vault and Georgia Dabritz on bars, and many, many, many more people joined the 9.975 club. We're seeing a lot of individual judges giving out 10s this season while the other judge sits there going, "Y'all tripping." I'm with Other Judge. Obviously and always.
Except this, which was the tumbling pass of the weekend. I said at the moment her routine was better than Kytra's this week, and I stand by that.
Now, to the rankings.
Week 4 Rankings – (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.465
Week 4 A: 197.650
Week 4 A leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman 9.925; UB - Wofford, Scaman 9.900; BB - Lovan 9.925; FX - Dowell 9.950
Week 4 B: 197.700
Week 4 B leaders: AA - None; VT - Everyone 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps, Sorensen 9.900; FX - Scaman 9.950
The Sooners extended their lead this weekend with two more scores over 197.600, which has become the expectation for this team already. Basically, now if they get a 197.300 it's like, "Uh oh, who ruined everything?" Given the strengths of the roster this season, vault and floor were always going to be the talking points, and while those have been the best-scoring and most consistent events, all of the events are pretty much at the same level. It's tough to pick out an area of concern at this point.
As of this week, Oklahoma is ranked first on every apparatus except vault, where they're second to Nebraska. Part of the identity of Oklahoma is that this team is never over-reliant on a single individual, and this year, it's not over-reliant on a single event either. Right now, it's about waiting for the other top teams to catch up so that we can really pick apart this fight.
2. Florida – 197.131
Week 4: 197.600
Week 4 leaders: AA - Hunter 39.675; VT - Hunter 9.975; UB - McMurtry 9.925; BB - Baker 9.925; FX - Baker, Hunter 9.975
By virtue of a handy little home score, Florida managed to leapfrog LSU to get back into the #2 spot. It's not coincidence that the Gators had by far their best score of the season when Baker and McMurtry showed their most complete performances so far. Their ability to support Kytra's routines with equivalent scores will dictate the success of this team without Sloan. When they're both getting 9.9s on beam, the Gators are in good shape.
Two more people joined the 10 club this weekend, Ciera Perkins on vault and Georgia Dabritz on bars, and many, many, many more people joined the 9.975 club. We're seeing a lot of individual judges giving out 10s this season while the other judge sits there going, "Y'all tripping." I'm with Other Judge. Obviously and always.
Except this, which was the tumbling pass of the weekend. I said at the moment her routine was better than Kytra's this week, and I stand by that.
Now, to the rankings.
Week 4 Rankings – (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.465
Week 4 A: 197.650
Week 4 A leaders: AA - None; VT - Scaman 9.925; UB - Wofford, Scaman 9.900; BB - Lovan 9.925; FX - Dowell 9.950
Week 4 B: 197.700
Week 4 B leaders: AA - None; VT - Everyone 9.900; UB - Wofford 9.950; BB - Capps, Sorensen 9.900; FX - Scaman 9.950
The Sooners extended their lead this weekend with two more scores over 197.600, which has become the expectation for this team already. Basically, now if they get a 197.300 it's like, "Uh oh, who ruined everything?" Given the strengths of the roster this season, vault and floor were always going to be the talking points, and while those have been the best-scoring and most consistent events, all of the events are pretty much at the same level. It's tough to pick out an area of concern at this point.
As of this week, Oklahoma is ranked first on every apparatus except vault, where they're second to Nebraska. Part of the identity of Oklahoma is that this team is never over-reliant on a single individual, and this year, it's not over-reliant on a single event either. Right now, it's about waiting for the other top teams to catch up so that we can really pick apart this fight.
2. Florida – 197.131
Week 4: 197.600
Week 4 leaders: AA - Hunter 39.675; VT - Hunter 9.975; UB - McMurtry 9.925; BB - Baker 9.925; FX - Baker, Hunter 9.975
By virtue of a handy little home score, Florida managed to leapfrog LSU to get back into the #2 spot. It's not coincidence that the Gators had by far their best score of the season when Baker and McMurtry showed their most complete performances so far. Their ability to support Kytra's routines with equivalent scores will dictate the success of this team without Sloan. When they're both getting 9.9s on beam, the Gators are in good shape.
January 1, 2015
#1 Florida Preview
Recent History
Winning. That basically sums up the recent history of Florida gymnastics. Being good. Done. For the first decade of the Rhonda Faehn era, Florida was the almost team. An extremely talented group that became sort of the cool, alternative pick to win a championship because they weren't one of the usual members of the big four. Then they would finish 4th every year. But following the beam-disaster-that-shall-not-be-named that was the 2011 postseason, Florida finally managed to emerge from the shadow of always finishing 4th. In 2012, they improved to a close 2nd after a heartbreaking and vaguely controversial final, and then, of course, followed that up with back-to-back titles the next two seasons.
2015 Outlook
After Suzanne retired and the Georgia dynasty ended, a few coaches talked about how there would never be another dynasty in college gymnastics because the talent is so spread out now and the level of coaching is so high. That is false. There will still be dynasties, and judging by Florida's roster this year and in the years to come, the Gators are a pretty good bet to do it. It's far, far from a guarantee (this isn't another 2013 where Florida can count a fall and still win), but Florida remains the safest pick to win the championship in 2015.
The biggest challenge for Florida this year is the quality of routines they'll have to replace from last year's team. They haven't lost a colossal number of routines (it's not an Alabama or Michigan situation), but the significance of the departed routines from Alaina Johnson and Mackenzie Caquatto puts the Gators in the position of needing a bit more from their freshmen than other teams will. Florida has more new 9.9s to find than either Oklahoma or LSU do, but the freshman class of Kennedy Baker, Alex McMurtry, Ericha Fassbender, and Grace McLaughlin should be able to manage it. There's a hefty number of 9.9s in that group, enough to expect that Florida can stay on the same scoring track as last year, especially with the returning bag of 10s that Bridget Sloan and Kytra Hunter will bring with them in the all-around.
Early in the season, keep an eye on bars and beam. Johnson and Mackenzie Caquatto contributed their most essential routines on those events, but the incoming class as a whole leans a little bit more to the power side. If they can find a way to effectively replace (or even near-replace) those bars scores in addition to beefing up the power events with new 9.9s, they'll have the kind of advantage that wins titles.
Vault
Returning lineup — Bridget Sloan (9.950), Kytra Hunter (9.945), Rachel Spicer (9.850), Bridgette Caquatto (9.845)
When we talk about the top teams, "weak event" is a relative term, but vault was the Gators' lowest-ranking event last season (at #5 in the nation). On vault, they were more likely to get a 49.400 instead of a 49.600. It took a while for the landings in the first three positions to come into line (a lot of big bounces for 9.800s), which meant that much of the scoring onus was placed on Sloan and Hunter to get 9.950s rather than having it spread out across the whole lineup. With Oklahoma improving on vault this season, it's critical that Florida do the same.
Both Caquatto the Elder and Johnson contributed vital scores around 9.850-9.900 depending on the control of the landing, but with Baker and McMurtry presumably slotting directly into those vacated spots in the lineup, Florida has reason to expect a net vault gain this season. McMurtry has the makings of a vault star who can rival the best on this team and the best in the country, and Baker brings the comfortable power that comes from having a very competitive DTY as an elite, but without quite the same history of shattered ankles as, say, Mackenzie Caquatto. Of course, leading the way will be Kytra Hunter with her 10-able, gigantic 1.5 and Bridget Sloan with her 9.950-able, similarly gigantic full. Those four exceptionally strong vaulters will keep Florida competitive with the top vaulting teams and should push them toward 49.5s.
The one remaining question about Florida's vaulting is whether they can get the same quality from the other two spots in the lineup. Bridgey Caquatto should be there, though she was among those who had a tendency to bounce for 9.800 last year. A few more sticks or tiny .050 steps would be a big help. The Gators will also have options from Rachel Spicer, Kiersten Wang coming back from injury, and perhaps more of the freshmen, but keep an eye on those early routine scores because those are often the real difference when every team can anchor with 9.950s.
Winning. That basically sums up the recent history of Florida gymnastics. Being good. Done. For the first decade of the Rhonda Faehn era, Florida was the almost team. An extremely talented group that became sort of the cool, alternative pick to win a championship because they weren't one of the usual members of the big four. Then they would finish 4th every year. But following the beam-disaster-that-shall-not-be-named that was the 2011 postseason, Florida finally managed to emerge from the shadow of always finishing 4th. In 2012, they improved to a close 2nd after a heartbreaking and vaguely controversial final, and then, of course, followed that up with back-to-back titles the next two seasons.
2015 Outlook
After Suzanne retired and the Georgia dynasty ended, a few coaches talked about how there would never be another dynasty in college gymnastics because the talent is so spread out now and the level of coaching is so high. That is false. There will still be dynasties, and judging by Florida's roster this year and in the years to come, the Gators are a pretty good bet to do it. It's far, far from a guarantee (this isn't another 2013 where Florida can count a fall and still win), but Florida remains the safest pick to win the championship in 2015.
The biggest challenge for Florida this year is the quality of routines they'll have to replace from last year's team. They haven't lost a colossal number of routines (it's not an Alabama or Michigan situation), but the significance of the departed routines from Alaina Johnson and Mackenzie Caquatto puts the Gators in the position of needing a bit more from their freshmen than other teams will. Florida has more new 9.9s to find than either Oklahoma or LSU do, but the freshman class of Kennedy Baker, Alex McMurtry, Ericha Fassbender, and Grace McLaughlin should be able to manage it. There's a hefty number of 9.9s in that group, enough to expect that Florida can stay on the same scoring track as last year, especially with the returning bag of 10s that Bridget Sloan and Kytra Hunter will bring with them in the all-around.
Early in the season, keep an eye on bars and beam. Johnson and Mackenzie Caquatto contributed their most essential routines on those events, but the incoming class as a whole leans a little bit more to the power side. If they can find a way to effectively replace (or even near-replace) those bars scores in addition to beefing up the power events with new 9.9s, they'll have the kind of advantage that wins titles.
Vault
Returning lineup — Bridget Sloan (9.950), Kytra Hunter (9.945), Rachel Spicer (9.850), Bridgette Caquatto (9.845)
When we talk about the top teams, "weak event" is a relative term, but vault was the Gators' lowest-ranking event last season (at #5 in the nation). On vault, they were more likely to get a 49.400 instead of a 49.600. It took a while for the landings in the first three positions to come into line (a lot of big bounces for 9.800s), which meant that much of the scoring onus was placed on Sloan and Hunter to get 9.950s rather than having it spread out across the whole lineup. With Oklahoma improving on vault this season, it's critical that Florida do the same.
Both Caquatto the Elder and Johnson contributed vital scores around 9.850-9.900 depending on the control of the landing, but with Baker and McMurtry presumably slotting directly into those vacated spots in the lineup, Florida has reason to expect a net vault gain this season. McMurtry has the makings of a vault star who can rival the best on this team and the best in the country, and Baker brings the comfortable power that comes from having a very competitive DTY as an elite, but without quite the same history of shattered ankles as, say, Mackenzie Caquatto. Of course, leading the way will be Kytra Hunter with her 10-able, gigantic 1.5 and Bridget Sloan with her 9.950-able, similarly gigantic full. Those four exceptionally strong vaulters will keep Florida competitive with the top vaulting teams and should push them toward 49.5s.
The one remaining question about Florida's vaulting is whether they can get the same quality from the other two spots in the lineup. Bridgey Caquatto should be there, though she was among those who had a tendency to bounce for 9.800 last year. A few more sticks or tiny .050 steps would be a big help. The Gators will also have options from Rachel Spicer, Kiersten Wang coming back from injury, and perhaps more of the freshmen, but keep an eye on those early routine scores because those are often the real difference when every team can anchor with 9.950s.
November 9, 2014
Freshman Notes: Florida and Utah
Let's continue the mission of chopping a path through the 2015 freshmen by moving on to Florida and Utah. The Gators and the Utes boast two more large incoming classes, both bursting with all-arounders who are pretty believable on all four events. For most of them, their eventual contribution will come down more to the depth of team lineups than to their capability to put together a competitive routine.
FLORIDA
The Gators are defending co-champions, and once again there's no reason to demote them from that #1 spot. Despite losing two major contributors and well-known former elites in Mackenzie Caquatto and Alaina Johnson (along with their seven 9.9-likely routines from last postseason) Florida is still able to pad the depth wagon this season with four new contributors, who bring with them more than seven lineup-worthy routines to replace those lost scores. Managing to lose stars without losing scores is the sign of a dynasty. Florida has two titles in a row, and three is very possible.
We'll start at the top, with Kennedy Baker from Texas Dreams. Baker was an elite for many years and qualified to Olympic Trials in 2012 before dropping down to L10 this year to prepare for Florida. Baker has damn huge gymnastics, and while it's hard to predict a four-event contributor on Florida's team because of the sheer number of quality options, I see her sliding in on each event.
Vault
Bars
Beam
Floor
Floor is my favorite event for Baker, almost entirely because of that killer piked double arabian. It's tremendous, and I can't wait to see that in her routine this year. Pair that skill with her regular double arabian on floor and her excellent Patterson beam dismount, and her portfolio of arabian work is historically good. Florida dropped off just a tad in showing big bad difficulty on floor last year (more front double fulls, fewer DLOs), but Baker will help bring that back in 2015 with her easy power. Not that it stopped them from getting 49.999s last year anyway.
FLORIDA
The Gators are defending co-champions, and once again there's no reason to demote them from that #1 spot. Despite losing two major contributors and well-known former elites in Mackenzie Caquatto and Alaina Johnson (along with their seven 9.9-likely routines from last postseason) Florida is still able to pad the depth wagon this season with four new contributors, who bring with them more than seven lineup-worthy routines to replace those lost scores. Managing to lose stars without losing scores is the sign of a dynasty. Florida has two titles in a row, and three is very possible.
We'll start at the top, with Kennedy Baker from Texas Dreams. Baker was an elite for many years and qualified to Olympic Trials in 2012 before dropping down to L10 this year to prepare for Florida. Baker has damn huge gymnastics, and while it's hard to predict a four-event contributor on Florida's team because of the sheer number of quality options, I see her sliding in on each event.
Vault
Bars
Beam
Floor
Floor is my favorite event for Baker, almost entirely because of that killer piked double arabian. It's tremendous, and I can't wait to see that in her routine this year. Pair that skill with her regular double arabian on floor and her excellent Patterson beam dismount, and her portfolio of arabian work is historically good. Florida dropped off just a tad in showing big bad difficulty on floor last year (more front double fulls, fewer DLOs), but Baker will help bring that back in 2015 with her easy power. Not that it stopped them from getting 49.999s last year anyway.
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