Welcome to Pac-12s Part Deux: Megan's Revenge, the thrilling summer blockbuster in which Utah will try to beat UCLA for the first time in 2016 following two consecutive losses in what feels like their fifteenth meeting of the season.
Repetitive matchups are one of the problems I have with creating a bracket for the postseason, in addition to the fact that it's not a true knockout event and doesn't have enough rounds for a bracket to be all that necessary. (It should be a true knockout event, but it isn't. The meets are best 2 out of 6, or 3 out of 6, which isn't the same thing and is fundamentally less dramatic. You don't get a bracket until you institute a format that lends itself to a bracket. You don't get dessert until you eat your vegetables.) You might as well just list all the teams at the beginning of the season in two columns, put a box in the middle for the winner, and say, "It's a bracket!" It's not a bracket.
This will be the third meeting of the season between Utah and UCLA (and their third each against Washington, though at least they were in different sessions at Pac-12s). If they both do qualify, the semifinals will be their 4th meeting and the third consecutive meet day in which they've faced off. We get it. By contrast, Utah and Auburn would have been an interesting comparison, and they probably won't meet at all.
Competing teams (starting event)
[5] Utah (bye before bars)
[8] UCLA (beam)
[17] Washington (floor)
[23] Southern Utah (bye before floor)
[29] Illinois (bars)
[32] Utah State (vault)
Competing individuals
Sacramento State (Kalliah McCartney – AA; Lauren Rice – AA; Cassie Benning – UB, FX; Julia Konner – VT)
UC Davis (Alexis Brown – UB, BB; Stephanie Stamates – BB, FX; Katy Nogaki – VT)
Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley – AA)
Alaska (M'rcy Matsunami – AA)
The favorites – Utah and UCLA
Unlike in the regionals previewed so far, this one features two teams that really should go through barring disaster. Disasters are always possible, and always the most fun, but if Utah and UCLA hit five-for-six on each event, they'll advance. The other teams are hoping for a mistake.
The clash between Utah and UCLA should still be quite interesting and telling about both teams' potential to do some damage in the postseason. UCLA's position is bolstered by the two wins over Utah this year, while Utah's position is bolstered by finishing only .325 behind UCLA at Pac-12s in spite of counting a fall. And by being at home this time. The Bruins would counter that they also had some mistakes at Pac-12s that brought down their score, like Cipra's floor fall and Preston's not-in-the-face vault. And we could go on. It should be a close-fought affair. With the home advantage and the stronger scoring pedigree over the whole season (a higher RQS on three of four events), Utah should come in as the favorite between the two, though far from a prohibitive one.
Neither team has a ton of difficulty on vault and both may struggle to compete with the three-1.5 lineups of the SEC once we get to nationals, but Utah's landings were significantly stronger than UCLA's at Pac-12s with a couple vaulters showing season-best sticks. Even without a difficulty edge, Utah's vault beat UCLA's by nearly three tenths because of landings (and direction, and knees), which would be a massive boon if that were repeated at regionals.
UCLA's edge comes on beam, with a lineup that is quite smooth in rhythm,
precise in split elements, and varied in skill selection and
difficulty. Utah, meanwhile, showed the signs of the Stover-ectomy in
counting a beam fall at Pac-12s. It's clear the team needs her back as
soon as possible not just to prevent using a fall but to provide a
much-needed 9.9.
Interestingly, UCLA beat Utah on bars at Pac-12s, even though bars is supposed to be a weakness for UCLA that compromises postseason hopes while it has been a strength for Utah. If UCLA is able to continue minimizing the bars deficit compared to a team like Utah, perhaps aided by a mysterious secret-weapon appearance of Peng or Ohashi, that would eliminate one major obstacle to postseason success. I'm not convinced yet, but it will be worth watching.
As for the rotation order, UCLA begins on its two best events, which I don't love. It means the Bruins must get a bunch of big scores early and absolutely need a lead at the halfway point, and a pretty significant one, to have a shot at winning this thing. They'll want a solid 98.800 after beam and floor, which is doable. The Utes will gain ground in the second half of the meet, particularly when they turn to floor as UCLA is turning to vault. As long as Utah is anywhere over 98.500 after bars and beam, even if still trailing, I would consider that on track to put up a competitive total/win.
Showing posts with label Illinois. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Illinois. Show all posts
March 30, 2016
January 16, 2016
Saturday and Sunday Meets
For Saturday and Sunday, I probably won't be doing much of the normal routine-by-routine live blogging (save that for Monday, when I'll be all over it), but I'll be popping in and out watching bits of things over the two days and will keep this post here for some basic reactions and impressions as needed. Feel free to use the comments to communicate all your feelings/profanities/side-eyes/insane commentator quotes/crack-smoking-judge reports from whatever you're watching. I'd love to know what I'm missing. We're all in this together. We can get through NCAA gym as a family.
Saturday, January 16
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Illinois @ Rutgers
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Brown, Springfield, Ithaca @ Southern Connecticut
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Brown, Springfield, Ithaca @ Southern Connecticut
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Ursinus @ Brockport
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Cortland, Rhode Island @ West Chester
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Hamline, UW-Eau Claire, UW-La Crosse @ UW-Oshkosh
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Ohio State @ Michigan
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Nebraska @ Penn State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Maryland @ Minnesota
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Illinois-Chicago @ Northern Illinois
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Ozone Classic (Iowa State, Pittsburgh, SEMO, Air Force)
Sunday, January 17
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green @ Western Michigan
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Towson @ Ball State
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – North Carolina, Penn, Cornell, Temple @ George Washington
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Arizona @ Texas Woman’s
3:00 ET/12:00 PT – Oklahoma @ Arkansas
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Alabama vs. Auburn (Birmingham, AL)
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – New Hampshire @ West Virginia
The Rutgers/Illinois feed was going Rutgers-only for the first half of the meet (it's also fun when they cut away from a floor routine to show a judge just doing some judging), but I'm still slightly appalled that a team with Horth, Kato, and O'Connor all going on bars can keep scoring a 2. Those are three would-be 9.9s. I picked Illinois to have a big year before the season started, and I'm sticking to it. The pace at halfway is still an improvement on last week, though. Ish. This will not be a usable score for Rutgers after a bars rotation in which every single person fell on a gienger. Did I spy with my little eye a Mustafina dismount, though? You go, Rutgers.
The Rutgers/Illinois feed was going Rutgers-only for the first half of the meet (it's also fun when they cut away from a floor routine to show a judge just doing some judging), but I'm still slightly appalled that a team with Horth, Kato, and O'Connor all going on bars can keep scoring a 2. Those are three would-be 9.9s. I picked Illinois to have a big year before the season started, and I'm sticking to it. The pace at halfway is still an improvement on last week, though. Ish. This will not be a usable score for Rutgers after a bars rotation in which every single person fell on a gienger. Did I spy with my little eye a Mustafina dismount, though? You go, Rutgers.
December 6, 2015
Freshman Notes: UCLA, Auburn, and the Rest
One last batch of freshman notes here for all your perusing/fantasy gym needs. After this, we'll still have the coaches poll to look forward to, which is released annually at half past whenever-they-damn-please. That should be some fun nonsense carrying on the grand middle school tradition of ranking people based on their reputations. But for now, there's still the UCLA Medical Center/part-time gymnastics program to break down.
UCLA
Worried. That's where we'll start. UCLA is coming off an 85%-dismal performance at Nationals last season and is now without Dr. Sam Peszek, PhD in bailing your asses out at every turn. The losses from last season don't amount to all that many routines, but those were extremely valuable routines for both their scores and, more importantly, Peszek's reliability and consistency. Dare I say, calm confidence. (Put a dollar in the "calm confidence" jar.)
Even though most UCLA fans will be waiting for next season when the Ross/Kocian wagon pulls up to the curb and expectations will be much higher, this year's freshman class is exceptionally talented, though sadly also the usual amount of already-in-several-pieces-on-the-floor. We'll start with Macy Toronjo, who is out with a shoulder injury. Because of course she is. That's particularly disheartening news for the Bruins because she's such an ideal NCAA gymnast, with strong basics, precision, and elite skill set across four events. Second-tier elites, the golden fleece of NCAA gym. She would have been relied on in the all-around, and certainly will be in the future. Even in JO, she showed both a DLO and full-in on floor, and nailed the crap out of them along with definitively not-awful dance elements that scored an a million. It would do the same in NCAA.
She brings the same comfort level on both acro and dance elements to beam and has a perfectly fine full on vault that she has done for actually ever. Bars can get iffy sometimes in the handstands and legs, but she performs a Ray and has strong amplitude in release elements that should absolutely become something real. Because so many of the other UCLA pieces are in the beautiful-fragile-inconsistent category, like a SYTYCD performance about broken marionettes to the tune of "Fix You," she'll need to be the constant, reliable one when she comes back.
So, with Toronjo currently on the sidelines, let's focus on that paragon of sturdy physical well-being, Katelyn Ohashi. Remember 2.5 years ago when she was absolutely going to the Olympics? Times change, and injuries change. Ohashi is obviously a glorious gymnast, the most talented entering NCAA this year, but she's a different gymnast now than she was as an elite. Her JO performances in 2015 were encouraging as to her new potential as an NCAA gymnast, but the main questions are how healthy she is and how healthy she'll be able to stay for an NCAA career after being used up and broken in elite. Will her shoulders just get thrown on the pile with the rest of them?
The biggest takeaway from Ohashi's more recent performances is that beam is back. She has maintained impressive difficulty and looks more confident without the burden of that layout full.
She'll need to slot into the Peszek role in the famous Francis-Lee-Peszek triumvirate of beam wonderfulness, as that's still UCLA's greatest asset compared to other teams. She can absolutely be another walking 10. She also has the pike full-in back on floor, and while she downgraded to a full on vault, it's a high and comfortable full. At some point, if they feel they can risk it, she could work the difficulty back up to something 10.0. Now, bars. There was a time last quad when Ohashi was a good bars worker and everyone died about her jaeger every minute of the year, before she was torn asunder in 2013 by introducing those E pirouetting elements she couldn't do. She didn't compete bars during the 2015 comeback, but let's hope she can get her groove back eventually.
UCLA
Worried. That's where we'll start. UCLA is coming off an 85%-dismal performance at Nationals last season and is now without Dr. Sam Peszek, PhD in bailing your asses out at every turn. The losses from last season don't amount to all that many routines, but those were extremely valuable routines for both their scores and, more importantly, Peszek's reliability and consistency. Dare I say, calm confidence. (Put a dollar in the "calm confidence" jar.)
Even though most UCLA fans will be waiting for next season when the Ross/Kocian wagon pulls up to the curb and expectations will be much higher, this year's freshman class is exceptionally talented, though sadly also the usual amount of already-in-several-pieces-on-the-floor. We'll start with Macy Toronjo, who is out with a shoulder injury. Because of course she is. That's particularly disheartening news for the Bruins because she's such an ideal NCAA gymnast, with strong basics, precision, and elite skill set across four events. Second-tier elites, the golden fleece of NCAA gym. She would have been relied on in the all-around, and certainly will be in the future. Even in JO, she showed both a DLO and full-in on floor, and nailed the crap out of them along with definitively not-awful dance elements that scored an a million. It would do the same in NCAA.
She brings the same comfort level on both acro and dance elements to beam and has a perfectly fine full on vault that she has done for actually ever. Bars can get iffy sometimes in the handstands and legs, but she performs a Ray and has strong amplitude in release elements that should absolutely become something real. Because so many of the other UCLA pieces are in the beautiful-fragile-inconsistent category, like a SYTYCD performance about broken marionettes to the tune of "Fix You," she'll need to be the constant, reliable one when she comes back.
So, with Toronjo currently on the sidelines, let's focus on that paragon of sturdy physical well-being, Katelyn Ohashi. Remember 2.5 years ago when she was absolutely going to the Olympics? Times change, and injuries change. Ohashi is obviously a glorious gymnast, the most talented entering NCAA this year, but she's a different gymnast now than she was as an elite. Her JO performances in 2015 were encouraging as to her new potential as an NCAA gymnast, but the main questions are how healthy she is and how healthy she'll be able to stay for an NCAA career after being used up and broken in elite. Will her shoulders just get thrown on the pile with the rest of them?
The biggest takeaway from Ohashi's more recent performances is that beam is back. She has maintained impressive difficulty and looks more confident without the burden of that layout full.
She'll need to slot into the Peszek role in the famous Francis-Lee-Peszek triumvirate of beam wonderfulness, as that's still UCLA's greatest asset compared to other teams. She can absolutely be another walking 10. She also has the pike full-in back on floor, and while she downgraded to a full on vault, it's a high and comfortable full. At some point, if they feel they can risk it, she could work the difficulty back up to something 10.0. Now, bars. There was a time last quad when Ohashi was a good bars worker and everyone died about her jaeger every minute of the year, before she was torn asunder in 2013 by introducing those E pirouetting elements she couldn't do. She didn't compete bars during the 2015 comeback, but let's hope she can get her groove back eventually.
March 29, 2015
Morgantown Regional Preview
Onward! So many regionals, so little time. Or so it will be on April 4th. The action begins that day with the Morgantown Regional, starting at 4:00 ET/1:00 PT. None of the other meets will be starting until an hour later, so our attention spans will have some solid quality time to spend with what should be one of the most interesting competitions on the day. This is not a cut-and-dry regional.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bars)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Illinois (beam)
[19] Arkansas (bye before floor)
[25] New Hampshire (vault)
[36] West Virginia (floor)
Competing individuals are from Bridgeport (Sasha Tsikhanovich - AA; Caitlin Perry - floor), Rutgers (Elizabeth Groden - AA; Luisa Leal - vault; Jenna Williams - bars), Brown (Diana Walters - AA; Jorden Mitchell - AA), West Chester (Majesta Valentine - AA), Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt - beam).
Florida
Florida is in the same boat as Oklahoma, a would-be easy qualifier that we can get into dissecting in true detail once nationals roll around, but considering the strength of this regional and Florida's performance at SECs this year, there are just a few more things I'm interested in keeping an eye on as the competition proceeds. That's not to say Florida is in danger, or anything. The Gators have no business making this meet even remotely interesting for themselves, but all eyes will be on beam in the second rotation. I really want to see that lineup, and I really want to see how they manage to recover. This performance will tell us whether SECs was a fluke or whether this is something we should be worried about going into nationals, a la 2011 with the beam meltdown heard round the world.
My instinct is certainly on the fluke side more than the problem side. We should see a recovery at regionals, but more than the hitting, the quality of the hit will be important to watch because there are several routines in that lineup that can get stuck in the 9.850s even when hit. That will not keep pace with Oklahoma, boasting what is apparently a whole lineup of 9.975s depending on whether you're a judge at Big 12s or not. We need to see more than just hits, we need to see 9.9s from people who aren't Bridget Sloan. At SECs, Florida put together three rotations that are on track to be national-title quality (not there yet, but on track), but if that's actually going to happen, they can't give away .050-.075 per beam routine to Oklahoma. It's too close for that.
Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas
Here's the thing. Stanford should qualify. Stanford is the most talented team of this contending group, but my confidence in that happening is wisps if anything at all. Not after the solid 197 that Illinois enjoyed at Big Tens and not with how generally nervous Stanford makes me at every moment, how variable their performances are, and how fleeting amazingness has tended to be. That's why Stanford never gets to be a sure bet. There's always that doubt. Which isn't helped by Arkansas's presence as a wildly dangerous 4th seed. I'm including Arkansas in this group because Arkansas is the quintessential spoiler. That's what this team does. I do think that if Stanford or Illinois hit to potential, Arkansas cannot match that score. But if both teams are a little tight in these high-pressure circumstances (it doesn't even have to be a fall, just a couple landings and a couple tenths here and there), then Arkansas is right in this.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bars)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Illinois (beam)
[19] Arkansas (bye before floor)
[25] New Hampshire (vault)
[36] West Virginia (floor)
Competing individuals are from Bridgeport (Sasha Tsikhanovich - AA; Caitlin Perry - floor), Rutgers (Elizabeth Groden - AA; Luisa Leal - vault; Jenna Williams - bars), Brown (Diana Walters - AA; Jorden Mitchell - AA), West Chester (Majesta Valentine - AA), Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt - beam).
Florida
Florida is in the same boat as Oklahoma, a would-be easy qualifier that we can get into dissecting in true detail once nationals roll around, but considering the strength of this regional and Florida's performance at SECs this year, there are just a few more things I'm interested in keeping an eye on as the competition proceeds. That's not to say Florida is in danger, or anything. The Gators have no business making this meet even remotely interesting for themselves, but all eyes will be on beam in the second rotation. I really want to see that lineup, and I really want to see how they manage to recover. This performance will tell us whether SECs was a fluke or whether this is something we should be worried about going into nationals, a la 2011 with the beam meltdown heard round the world.
My instinct is certainly on the fluke side more than the problem side. We should see a recovery at regionals, but more than the hitting, the quality of the hit will be important to watch because there are several routines in that lineup that can get stuck in the 9.850s even when hit. That will not keep pace with Oklahoma, boasting what is apparently a whole lineup of 9.975s depending on whether you're a judge at Big 12s or not. We need to see more than just hits, we need to see 9.9s from people who aren't Bridget Sloan. At SECs, Florida put together three rotations that are on track to be national-title quality (not there yet, but on track), but if that's actually going to happen, they can't give away .050-.075 per beam routine to Oklahoma. It's too close for that.
Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas
Here's the thing. Stanford should qualify. Stanford is the most talented team of this contending group, but my confidence in that happening is wisps if anything at all. Not after the solid 197 that Illinois enjoyed at Big Tens and not with how generally nervous Stanford makes me at every moment, how variable their performances are, and how fleeting amazingness has tended to be. That's why Stanford never gets to be a sure bet. There's always that doubt. Which isn't helped by Arkansas's presence as a wildly dangerous 4th seed. I'm including Arkansas in this group because Arkansas is the quintessential spoiler. That's what this team does. I do think that if Stanford or Illinois hit to potential, Arkansas cannot match that score. But if both teams are a little tight in these high-pressure circumstances (it doesn't even have to be a fall, just a couple landings and a couple tenths here and there), then Arkansas is right in this.
January 25, 2015
[11] Illinois @ [4] Michigan Live Blog
December 10, 2014
The Latest from Training (and Talking)
In verbal news, earlier this week Jazmyn Foberg and Laurie Hernandez of MG Elite both verbaled to Florida, because so is everyone. They're not set to start competing for Florida until 2019 (which is like 2230 as far as I'm concerned), and so much can happen between now and then, but it's worth noting that the Florida elite pipeline is just getting stronger.
Oklahoma
Michigan held a scored exhibition last weekend. Gymnastike has a whole mess of videos if you're into that kind of thing.
There's no need to pay attention to the actual scores because it's the beginning of December, but having just 7 people making the top 6 right now reinforces the importance of those few top-level AAers like Sugiyama and Artz and how much the team will be relying on Brianna Brown right away. Her bars routine still needs some cleaning up but stands out as one with major scoring potential because of her release amplitude. Also note that they were missing Lauren Marinez with injury and Austin Sheppard with continued recovery (?).
Illinois
Oklahoma
Michigan held a scored exhibition last weekend. Gymnastike has a whole mess of videos if you're into that kind of thing.
Illinois
April 12, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 1: All About the Beamjamins
(Do you like the title? Thank you. I'm very proud of myself.)
The NCAA National Championship is less than a week away, people. One week, and then it's over. I'm definitely not ready for the season to be finished yet. Then, we'll have to focus on elite gymnastics, which is always a challenge at first. I watched the women's team competition at Pac Rims this week (P.S. how do they expect anyone to spend time writing previews for Nationals when Pac Rims and Men's NCAA Champs are going on?) and it was hard to shift gears back to elite and remember that you're allowed to have a lot of mistakes and wobbles and breaks and bound on landings and it's still considered a good routine. Also that corner rule, you guys . . . I just can't with it. I feel like it's getting even worse. It might be more upsetting than the pointed-toe, duck-with-rigor-mortis running they're already forced to do to connect dance elements. It's just the dumbest.
But I digress. For now, we still have NCAA Nationals to enjoy, so over the coming days I'll be previewing the competition by assessing the chances for each of the twelve qualified teams - what constitutes a likely outcome and what they will need to do to attain it. Based on what we've seen over the past few weeks, this season defies any "favorite" status for any of the teams. No one hangs onto being the favorite for more than a week or so before they start counting falls on beam, which should make for an exciting competition. In the men's championship yesterday, after the first rotation Michigan was all, "Oh wait, now we could fall a thousand times and still win. Peace out." I don't expect such a scenario in the women's championship. There are several teams with solid arguments for the championship, and they should be fighting it out until the end of Super Six. I'll save their preview for later. For this preview of the afternoon session, I'll withhold Oklahoma and LSU until then and limit it to addressing the fight to qualify with Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, and Illinois. It is by no means guaranteed that Oklahoma and LSU will advance, but for the purpose of setting the scene, this is the most likely scenario.
The first session looks to be the more exciting of the two semifinals, and the quest to qualify out of the afternoon session is perhaps the most interesting storyline we have going into Nationals in that no teams looks like a frontrunner. There is no expected scenario or upset scenario, just several teams that could end up in any order. Georgia is the highest ranked of the contending trio, ahead of Michigan and Stanford, but at both conference championships and regionals, they had the lowest score of the three. Stanford is the lowest ranked, but looked the strongest and most consistent at regionals.
This semifinal also looks like a pretty good bet to make a tiny blip on the history radar. No team has ever scored a 197 in a semifinal and failed to advance to Super Six. The highest score ever to lose in a semifinal is Oklahoma's 196.925 from 2012, but if all these teams hit regular meets, we could see five 197s. It could take as much as a 197.4-197.5 to begin to feel comfortable with qualifying, which is great. It should take brilliance to make Super Six, and that's what will be required here. Let's begin.
GEORGIA
It hasn't been a great end to the season for Georgia. They lost Brittany Rogers' contributions in the AA, finished 4th at SECs (expected, but still not exciting for the team), and then put together a downright lumpy performance at regionals. That's enough concentrated lackluster to make an argument for Georgia as easy choice for an upset in semifinals, but at the same time there is reason for optimism for the Gym Dogs. Even with that rather poor showing at regionals, they didn't finish all that far behind Michigan (who didn't have a great meet themselves, but also didn't count a fall). Get rid of the Hires mistake on floor, and the meet is even. Assume both teams show up on beam, and Georgia is out ahead. I'm not saying that's going to happen - there are quite a few leaping assumptions there - but even considering all their mistakes at regionals, the bars and vault advantages bode well for Georgia's chances to advance to Super Six for the second time in a row if they can be just fine on the other events and not go to pieces this time.
The NCAA National Championship is less than a week away, people. One week, and then it's over. I'm definitely not ready for the season to be finished yet. Then, we'll have to focus on elite gymnastics, which is always a challenge at first. I watched the women's team competition at Pac Rims this week (P.S. how do they expect anyone to spend time writing previews for Nationals when Pac Rims and Men's NCAA Champs are going on?) and it was hard to shift gears back to elite and remember that you're allowed to have a lot of mistakes and wobbles and breaks and bound on landings and it's still considered a good routine. Also that corner rule, you guys . . . I just can't with it. I feel like it's getting even worse. It might be more upsetting than the pointed-toe, duck-with-rigor-mortis running they're already forced to do to connect dance elements. It's just the dumbest.
But I digress. For now, we still have NCAA Nationals to enjoy, so over the coming days I'll be previewing the competition by assessing the chances for each of the twelve qualified teams - what constitutes a likely outcome and what they will need to do to attain it. Based on what we've seen over the past few weeks, this season defies any "favorite" status for any of the teams. No one hangs onto being the favorite for more than a week or so before they start counting falls on beam, which should make for an exciting competition. In the men's championship yesterday, after the first rotation Michigan was all, "Oh wait, now we could fall a thousand times and still win. Peace out." I don't expect such a scenario in the women's championship. There are several teams with solid arguments for the championship, and they should be fighting it out until the end of Super Six. I'll save their preview for later. For this preview of the afternoon session, I'll withhold Oklahoma and LSU until then and limit it to addressing the fight to qualify with Georgia, Michigan, Stanford, and Illinois. It is by no means guaranteed that Oklahoma and LSU will advance, but for the purpose of setting the scene, this is the most likely scenario.
The first session looks to be the more exciting of the two semifinals, and the quest to qualify out of the afternoon session is perhaps the most interesting storyline we have going into Nationals in that no teams looks like a frontrunner. There is no expected scenario or upset scenario, just several teams that could end up in any order. Georgia is the highest ranked of the contending trio, ahead of Michigan and Stanford, but at both conference championships and regionals, they had the lowest score of the three. Stanford is the lowest ranked, but looked the strongest and most consistent at regionals.
This semifinal also looks like a pretty good bet to make a tiny blip on the history radar. No team has ever scored a 197 in a semifinal and failed to advance to Super Six. The highest score ever to lose in a semifinal is Oklahoma's 196.925 from 2012, but if all these teams hit regular meets, we could see five 197s. It could take as much as a 197.4-197.5 to begin to feel comfortable with qualifying, which is great. It should take brilliance to make Super Six, and that's what will be required here. Let's begin.
GEORGIA
It hasn't been a great end to the season for Georgia. They lost Brittany Rogers' contributions in the AA, finished 4th at SECs (expected, but still not exciting for the team), and then put together a downright lumpy performance at regionals. That's enough concentrated lackluster to make an argument for Georgia as easy choice for an upset in semifinals, but at the same time there is reason for optimism for the Gym Dogs. Even with that rather poor showing at regionals, they didn't finish all that far behind Michigan (who didn't have a great meet themselves, but also didn't count a fall). Get rid of the Hires mistake on floor, and the meet is even. Assume both teams show up on beam, and Georgia is out ahead. I'm not saying that's going to happen - there are quite a few leaping assumptions there - but even considering all their mistakes at regionals, the bars and vault advantages bode well for Georgia's chances to advance to Super Six for the second time in a row if they can be just fine on the other events and not go to pieces this time.
March 30, 2014
Minneapolis, MN Regional Preview
The #2 team in the country, Oklahoma, will have to trek north to Minnesota for a regional that looks like it will be a tight battle between Illinois and Minnesota for the second spot to advance to nationals. This meet is one of the later starts (7 ET/4 PT), so the Illinois/Minnesota storyline will probably finish out the day be the very last nationals spot decided.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Oklahoma (bye before bars)
[11] Illinois (bye before floor)
[14] Minnesota (vault)
[19] California (floor)
[26] Southern Utah (bars)
[31] San Jose State (beam)
Competing individuals are from Iowa (Alie Glover, Angel Metcalf, Sydney Hoerr, Jordyn Doherty - vault, Mollie Drenth - floor), Air Force (Linnaea Hance, Katie Hawthorne - bars, Shannen Kelly - beam), and Wisconsin-Whitewater (Katie Fiorilli).
The Favorite
We're falling into a few ruts when it comes to rankings. Florida enters regionals as the #1 team for the fourth straight year, and Oklahoma is the #2 team for the third straight year. And much like Florida, Oklahoma should advance with ease. Minnesota's season high of 197.250, top among the other teams, would be considered a bad meet for the Sooners, who haven't put up a score below that level since February. For these top few seeds, regionals are about what we want to see heading into nationals.
It's interesting that we have this collective sense of Oklahoma as a bars and beam, and it comes because visually and anecdotally, that's where they have excelled. Those routines have been the more memorable and more exciting ones. However, Oklahoma has ranked consistently well on vault and floor over the past five years, claiming the #1 ranking on both events from time to time, so to see them in the top 3 on all the events this year is not unusual and, in terms of basic results, isn't really a change. What would be a change would be seeing them score more competitively at nationals on those events, which they have not always done (5th on vault and floor at Super Six 2013). We won't really get an answer to how competitive this Oklahoma team is on those events until nationals, but there is still a sense that they have progressed, with underclassmen like Scaman, Kanewa, and Capps providing a boost of power - Capps with that extra distance on vault, Kanewa with that extra big E pass on floor to support Scaman's excellent DLO - that makes them somewhat less reliant on sticking to get the scores. Though the early lineup routines will still have to be very precise to stay in range of everyone. A few of those early floor routines looked distinctly 9.800 at Big 12s.
But for all the competitive scoring on vault and floor that we have seen this year from Oklahoma, I still think it's going to take winning bars and beam for them to win a national championship. For the time being, that's still this roster's bread and butter. They may be competitive on vault and floor, but bars and beam - especially beam - is where they will have a chance to separate themselves from any other team. That's what I want to see at regionals. A team that can win bars and beam at nationals.
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Oklahoma (bye before bars)
[11] Illinois (bye before floor)
[14] Minnesota (vault)
[19] California (floor)
[26] Southern Utah (bars)
[31] San Jose State (beam)
Competing individuals are from Iowa (Alie Glover, Angel Metcalf, Sydney Hoerr, Jordyn Doherty - vault, Mollie Drenth - floor), Air Force (Linnaea Hance, Katie Hawthorne - bars, Shannen Kelly - beam), and Wisconsin-Whitewater (Katie Fiorilli).
The Favorite
We're falling into a few ruts when it comes to rankings. Florida enters regionals as the #1 team for the fourth straight year, and Oklahoma is the #2 team for the third straight year. And much like Florida, Oklahoma should advance with ease. Minnesota's season high of 197.250, top among the other teams, would be considered a bad meet for the Sooners, who haven't put up a score below that level since February. For these top few seeds, regionals are about what we want to see heading into nationals.
It's interesting that we have this collective sense of Oklahoma as a bars and beam, and it comes because visually and anecdotally, that's where they have excelled. Those routines have been the more memorable and more exciting ones. However, Oklahoma has ranked consistently well on vault and floor over the past five years, claiming the #1 ranking on both events from time to time, so to see them in the top 3 on all the events this year is not unusual and, in terms of basic results, isn't really a change. What would be a change would be seeing them score more competitively at nationals on those events, which they have not always done (5th on vault and floor at Super Six 2013). We won't really get an answer to how competitive this Oklahoma team is on those events until nationals, but there is still a sense that they have progressed, with underclassmen like Scaman, Kanewa, and Capps providing a boost of power - Capps with that extra distance on vault, Kanewa with that extra big E pass on floor to support Scaman's excellent DLO - that makes them somewhat less reliant on sticking to get the scores. Though the early lineup routines will still have to be very precise to stay in range of everyone. A few of those early floor routines looked distinctly 9.800 at Big 12s.
But for all the competitive scoring on vault and floor that we have seen this year from Oklahoma, I still think it's going to take winning bars and beam for them to win a national championship. For the time being, that's still this roster's bread and butter. They may be competitive on vault and floor, but bars and beam - especially beam - is where they will have a chance to separate themselves from any other team. That's what I want to see at regionals. A team that can win bars and beam at nationals.
April 19, 2013
National Semifinals Live Blog: Nothing If Not a Show
This season has seen some of the more preposterously scored meets in recent years, and through each of those 10s given out for non-sticks, the watchword has been that everything evens out at nationals. Everyone will be evaluated by the same judges on the same day. Noisy arguments about bias no longer stand.
Here is the scoring link for the first semifinal. And, of course, the live stream. It will go quickly. Make sure you have your best paying-attention eyes on. This slate won't be blank for long. (Also, have we already eliminated Illinois from contention? Hilarious.)
Our helpful Gymdogs have posted the complete lineups for the first semifinal.
It's very important for Georgia to have Couch back on both vault and floor. As long as she has had enough training time, she increases their consistency potential. It's much less likely they'll have a 9.7 that must be dropped on vault and floor now.
LSU has also switched Jordan and Ranzy on bars and put Mathis in for Lau on vault.
I still maintain that this first session should be straightforward, but I certainly wouldn't complain if it isn't.
Here is the scoring link for the first semifinal. And, of course, the live stream. It will go quickly. Make sure you have your best paying-attention eyes on. This slate won't be blank for long. (Also, have we already eliminated Illinois from contention? Hilarious.)
It's very important for Georgia to have Couch back on both vault and floor. As long as she has had enough training time, she increases their consistency potential. It's much less likely they'll have a 9.7 that must be dropped on vault and floor now.
LSU has also switched Jordan and Ranzy on bars and put Mathis in for Lau on vault.
I still maintain that this first session should be straightforward, but I certainly wouldn't complain if it isn't.
April 12, 2013
Nationals Capsules Pt. 1: What to Expect When You're Expecting (to Lose to Florida)
Over the next week, I'll be providing hearty little capsules about each of the teams heading to National Championships, covering their strengths and weaknesses and their overall outlooks for the competition. Let's begin with the lower three seeds from the first semifinal.
Today, Val did an interview with Sam Peszek (whose interviewing skills have skyrocketed this season) where she said there are no straightforward semifinals anymore. You mean except for the first one? Of course, anything can happen. That's always true. However, this semifinal is in the hands of the top seeds, and I firmly believe that if Florida, Georgia, and LSU hit 24-for-24, they will advance to Super Six regardless of the other performances. Actually, Florida probably doesn't even have to hit that well to be comfortable.
To change that presumed outcome, it will take a season best from Minnesota or Stanford mixed with an off meet from Georgia or LSU. This is quite possible, but it will take a confluence of events. It won't be all on one team. The lower seeds will need help in the form of a sub-49 rotation or, more likely, a counting fall. This semifinal is still deep enough that Georgia and LSU should not be able to count falls and advance, at least hopefully. I never like to see a missed meet provide a ticket to Super Six. If the Gators are on 49.5s track again, they can probably count a 9.300 and be OK.
It wouldn't be National Championships without a few crazy falls, though, so don't take this session completely for granted. Assuming no falls, however, it should take a score into the lowish-midish 197s to advance to Super Six, so that is the standard on which we must evaluate all of the teams.
[8] Minnesota
Since remaining a thing at such a late point in the season isn't exactly the norm for the Gophers, they are free to take a moment to have some "Wheee! Nationals!" time, but only a moment. While I wouldn't call it a likely outcome, this team has the potential to continue past semifinals and should not be content with simply making it to the big city full of big dreams.
Today, Val did an interview with Sam Peszek (whose interviewing skills have skyrocketed this season) where she said there are no straightforward semifinals anymore. You mean except for the first one? Of course, anything can happen. That's always true. However, this semifinal is in the hands of the top seeds, and I firmly believe that if Florida, Georgia, and LSU hit 24-for-24, they will advance to Super Six regardless of the other performances. Actually, Florida probably doesn't even have to hit that well to be comfortable.
To change that presumed outcome, it will take a season best from Minnesota or Stanford mixed with an off meet from Georgia or LSU. This is quite possible, but it will take a confluence of events. It won't be all on one team. The lower seeds will need help in the form of a sub-49 rotation or, more likely, a counting fall. This semifinal is still deep enough that Georgia and LSU should not be able to count falls and advance, at least hopefully. I never like to see a missed meet provide a ticket to Super Six. If the Gators are on 49.5s track again, they can probably count a 9.300 and be OK.
It wouldn't be National Championships without a few crazy falls, though, so don't take this session completely for granted. Assuming no falls, however, it should take a score into the lowish-midish 197s to advance to Super Six, so that is the standard on which we must evaluate all of the teams.
[8] Minnesota
Since remaining a thing at such a late point in the season isn't exactly the norm for the Gophers, they are free to take a moment to have some "Wheee! Nationals!" time, but only a moment. While I wouldn't call it a likely outcome, this team has the potential to continue past semifinals and should not be content with simply making it to the big city full of big dreams.
April 4, 2013
Morgantown Regional Preview
The final few regionals don't have clear favorites for the win, but because of the seeding system, they do have clear favorites for the nationals spots. There is not yet enough parity for teams outside the top 15 to expect to challenge for nationals without a gift from a higher-ranked team.
Competing teams (starting event):
[5] Michigan (vault)
[8] Nebraska (bye before bars)
[17] Illinois (bye before floor)
[19] Kentucky (floor)
[26] West Virginia (bars)
[33] North Carolina (beam)
The Favorites
Michigan had the landings together this year well before any of the other teams, which accounted for the very high ranking at the beginning of the season. As the other teams caught up in presenting finished routines, they also caught up in RQS. As a result of both that and two consecutive average performances, the Wolverines are perhaps slightly undervalued coming into regionals. This is still a high 197 team that would potentially project into the 198s were it not for beam.
Competing teams (starting event):
[5] Michigan (vault)
[8] Nebraska (bye before bars)
[17] Illinois (bye before floor)
[19] Kentucky (floor)
[26] West Virginia (bars)
[33] North Carolina (beam)
The Favorites
Michigan had the landings together this year well before any of the other teams, which accounted for the very high ranking at the beginning of the season. As the other teams caught up in presenting finished routines, they also caught up in RQS. As a result of both that and two consecutive average performances, the Wolverines are perhaps slightly undervalued coming into regionals. This is still a high 197 team that would potentially project into the 198s were it not for beam.
April 3, 2012
Champaign Regional Preview
The second preview on the docket features our #2 national seed, the Oklahoma Sooners, traveling to Illinois in an effort to earn their place in yet another National Championship. Along with [2] Oklahoma, the teams competing in this Regional are [11] Stanford, [14] Denver, [22] Illinois, [24] Kentucky, and [32] Illinois-Chicago.
The Favorite:
For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.
However, like Florida, I don't see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they're still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.
When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.
But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma's lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.
The Favorite:
For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.
However, like Florida, I don't see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they're still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.
When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.
But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma's lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.
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