Onward! Following the cue of the wildly circuitous Road to Rio we've been hearing about for the past year (I feel like there might be more efficient ways to get to Rio, like a plane or something), we move along the Road to Lovely Metropolitan Fort Worth from our first stop in Iowa to Minnesota. Wait, are we going the right direction? This feels wrong. Who's navigating this trip? TRAUTWIG!!!???
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before bars)
[11] Denver (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[20] Missouri (bye before floor)
[28] Ohio State (bars)
[31] BYU (vault)
Competing individuals
Iowa State (Haylee Young – AA; Meagan Sievers – AA; Sydney Converse – VT, BB; Briana Ledesma – VT, FX; Hilary Green – UB; Alex Marasco – BB; Kelsey Paz – FX)
Air Force (Kara Witgen – AA; Jamie Lewis – AA)
UW-Whitewater (Mackenzie Smith – UB)
The favorite – Florida
Much like Oklahoma, the Florida Gators enter regionals as the heavy favorite and should win comfortably, pretty much running away with it after the first rotation, even though they'll be on a bye. The win at SECs helps reinforce Florida's status as a comfortable pick to win a fourth-straight title, though the sheer competitiveness of that meet, along with getting outscored by Oklahoma by multiple tenths that day, indicate that it's far from a safe proposition. Florida was challenged by multiple other teams during a well-hit meet. Mostly well-hit.
That brings us to the Sloan problem. You're the one who's not supposed to be a problem! What is happening? For regionals, Florida does have the leeway to make a couple errors or count a fall and still advance, but it's imperative that Sloan work out whatever is happening on beam and why. She has fallen on three of her last five beam routines, and while one of the other two hits was a 10.000, that's not a very Sloan-like record at all. At nationals, the Gators don't just need a hit from her. They need a 9.950. That's how close and high-scoring this thing is going to be. We know Sloan can pull it together, as she mas many times before. As an elite, she had a bit of a Mikulaky reputation for falling on beam on the first day and then hitting on the second day, and even two seasons ago, Bridget was a beam disaster heading into the final Saturday and then got a 20 at Super Six. She needs to Sloan it out again. Our main focus in this meet will be lower down the standings, but Sloan's beam routine in rotation three is a must-watch.
The fight – Denver v. Minnesota
This regional contest is among the more delectable because, aside from providing a potentially close race right down to the end, it guarantees a somewhat unexpected qualifier to nationals. While all three of the contenders here have advanced to nationals in the recent past (Minnesota in 2013, Missouri in 2010, Denver in 2007, 2008), none are what would be considered perennial qualifiers. Someone is going to be spoiling the old party. Also, the Jessica Lopez era was EIGHT years ago?
Denver and Minnesota have both hit tremendous highs this season marked by historically significant scores, but some of those scores have been a little...creative, particularly that weekend of meets during which these two teams squared off twice and split the series.
For instance, this Julia Ross bars routine got a 9.900, which I use to illustrate high scores and because it's one of the key routines for Denver that isn't Nina McGee's floor. They have others.
Showing posts with label BYU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BYU. Show all posts
March 25, 2016
March 30, 2015
Berkeley Regional Preview
All season long, this has been the one. This has been the scary regional. Cal is the only truly dangerous floater among the hosts. Oklahoma and Auburn are favored to advance, and it would be a shocking, Kent State-level upset to see West Virginia, Ohio State, or Iowa State go to nationals. But with Cal, you wonder. Cal is the 4th seed and does have a pretty low ranking of 20th (I thought this would be the season they got into the top 15), but Cal also has a recent history of big home results, finishing 3rd at Pac-12s last year and scoring as high as 197.325 this year. Making this regional all the better, we have a trio of top seeds in Utah, Georgia, and Boise State that would make for a tight and competitive meet all by themselves, even without a challenging 4th-seeded host.
The Berkeley regional starts later than all the other competitions, beginning at 9:00 ET/6:00 PT, so we'll have plenty of time to focus on just this one. But that does mean the pressure is on for it to be interesting because there won't be any other, better meets to be distracted by if this gets boring early. You hear that teams? Be interesting.
Competing teams (starting event)
[3] Utah (bars)
[10] Georgia (bye before bars)
[15] Boise State (beam)
[20] Cal (bye before floor)
[29] Utah State (vault)
[35] BYU (floor)
Competing individuals are from San Jose State (Cami Guyer - AA; Kaitlin Won - AA; Maddie Herr - AA), UC Davis (Tiana Montell - AA; Katy Nogaki - vault; Dani Judal - beam; Kala DeFrancesco - floor), Alaska (M'rcy Matsunami - AA); and Sacramento State (Cassie Benning - bars).
Utah
Before Pac-12s, Utah looked to be on cruise control, just waiting for nationals for things to matter. The Tory Wilson Achilles catastrophe has thrown a little bit of doubt into that picture, but not enough doubt to make Utah a true upset threat. I mean, when was the last time Utah didn't make nationals? Oh, that's right, it was never.
Still, the lack of Wilson, and how that changes the dynamics of each of the events, adds an extra twist to this meet. Certainly, Utah has people to slot into those empty spots who can score 9.850s. The depth is pretty solid this year. Tiffani Lewis has had plenty of competition opportunities and can easily go on vault, bars, and floor, though Baely Rowe could also come in on vault if she's feeling 100%. Across the four events, they'll probably drop a couple tenths compared to what they could have scored with Wilson, but that should not in itself be enough to put Utah in the danger zone. It does compromise their potential to contend with the top teams (Wilson could get 9.9s and we're much less likely to see 9.9s from her replacements), but it shouldn't compromise regionals as long as they don't suddenly lose their minds.
Speaking of which, let's talk about beam. Even though beam was Wilson's weakest event, it's the area where her absence will be felt the strongest. Utah doesn't have nearly as many comfortable options on beam, and Wilson was the reliable leadoff all season long. Someone else is going to have to take that role now, throwing the lineup and the comfort level they have recently developed on beam into flux. Do you just slot her replacement (likely Delaney) into that leadoff spot? Do you put Rowe or Lothrop back in there, potentially compromising their scoring potential? You can guess which one I favor, and it doesn't involve compromising scoring potential. It's something they'll have to figure out and quickly become comfortable with because there are four teams in this competition boasting high-196 potential, so counting a fall isn't really an option. Second rotation: Utah beam. Watch it. But unless something goes nasty to a level it hasn't yet this season, it should be smooth sailing to a qualification spot.
Georgia, Boise State, Cal
Georgia. Look what you've done to us. Show me this collection of teams before the season, and I say, "Utah and Georgia," easy pick, easy regional. Even with Cal as a host. That's how it should go, but we've all been so traumatized by watching Georgia this year that none of us knows what to think anymore. Up is down. Black is white. Vault is bad now for some reason (and what's that about, by the way? You have Brandie Jay). Everything is all over the place. Still, when the Gym Dogs put four events together, they are the second-best team in this regional, and if they hit 5-for-6 on four events (these goals...), they should be able to go through.
The Berkeley regional starts later than all the other competitions, beginning at 9:00 ET/6:00 PT, so we'll have plenty of time to focus on just this one. But that does mean the pressure is on for it to be interesting because there won't be any other, better meets to be distracted by if this gets boring early. You hear that teams? Be interesting.
Competing teams (starting event)
[3] Utah (bars)
[10] Georgia (bye before bars)
[15] Boise State (beam)
[20] Cal (bye before floor)
[29] Utah State (vault)
[35] BYU (floor)
Competing individuals are from San Jose State (Cami Guyer - AA; Kaitlin Won - AA; Maddie Herr - AA), UC Davis (Tiana Montell - AA; Katy Nogaki - vault; Dani Judal - beam; Kala DeFrancesco - floor), Alaska (M'rcy Matsunami - AA); and Sacramento State (Cassie Benning - bars).
Utah
Before Pac-12s, Utah looked to be on cruise control, just waiting for nationals for things to matter. The Tory Wilson Achilles catastrophe has thrown a little bit of doubt into that picture, but not enough doubt to make Utah a true upset threat. I mean, when was the last time Utah didn't make nationals? Oh, that's right, it was never.
Still, the lack of Wilson, and how that changes the dynamics of each of the events, adds an extra twist to this meet. Certainly, Utah has people to slot into those empty spots who can score 9.850s. The depth is pretty solid this year. Tiffani Lewis has had plenty of competition opportunities and can easily go on vault, bars, and floor, though Baely Rowe could also come in on vault if she's feeling 100%. Across the four events, they'll probably drop a couple tenths compared to what they could have scored with Wilson, but that should not in itself be enough to put Utah in the danger zone. It does compromise their potential to contend with the top teams (Wilson could get 9.9s and we're much less likely to see 9.9s from her replacements), but it shouldn't compromise regionals as long as they don't suddenly lose their minds.
Speaking of which, let's talk about beam. Even though beam was Wilson's weakest event, it's the area where her absence will be felt the strongest. Utah doesn't have nearly as many comfortable options on beam, and Wilson was the reliable leadoff all season long. Someone else is going to have to take that role now, throwing the lineup and the comfort level they have recently developed on beam into flux. Do you just slot her replacement (likely Delaney) into that leadoff spot? Do you put Rowe or Lothrop back in there, potentially compromising their scoring potential? You can guess which one I favor, and it doesn't involve compromising scoring potential. It's something they'll have to figure out and quickly become comfortable with because there are four teams in this competition boasting high-196 potential, so counting a fall isn't really an option. Second rotation: Utah beam. Watch it. But unless something goes nasty to a level it hasn't yet this season, it should be smooth sailing to a qualification spot.
Georgia, Boise State, Cal
Georgia. Look what you've done to us. Show me this collection of teams before the season, and I say, "Utah and Georgia," easy pick, easy regional. Even with Cal as a host. That's how it should go, but we've all been so traumatized by watching Georgia this year that none of us knows what to think anymore. Up is down. Black is white. Vault is bad now for some reason (and what's that about, by the way? You have Brandie Jay). Everything is all over the place. Still, when the Gym Dogs put four events together, they are the second-best team in this regional, and if they hit 5-for-6 on four events (these goals...), they should be able to go through.
April 1, 2014
Seattle, WA Regional Preview
Usually we have at least a couple unseeded teams hosting a regional or two, but this year Washington is the only one, having managed to just outstrip the regionals cutoff and make it in. They'll invite Alabama and Nebraska to their humble abode to do battle with plucky challengers Boise State and Denver, beginning at 7 ET/4 PT. This is the west coast regional, so couldn't we have started it a bit later to spread out the competitions a little more? How do they expect us to watch six meets in a day if they're all at the same time?
Competing teams (staring event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[9] Nebraska (bye before floor)
[16] Boise State (vault)
[20] Denver (floor)
[25] BYU (bars)
[33] Washington (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from Sacramento State (Jesse Williams, Kalliah McCartney, Kailey Hansen - vault, beam, and floor, Julia Konner - vault, Kaila Kilwien - bars, Kayla Wonderly - beam, Dallas Smith - floor), Alaska (Stefany Bryan), and Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley - vault, bars, and beam, Tracie Villanueva - bars, Kailee Tindall - floor). Sacramento State has a Kayla, a Kailey, a Kaila, and a Kalliah. The end.
The Favorites
This regional sets up a little differently from the previous ones in that there's a bit more separation between the top seeds and the contending seeds, with Alabama and Nebraska both looking like safe bets to advance. That's not to say the other teams can't manage something interesting (we'll get to them in a moment), but Alabama is on a roll and Nebraska is situated much better in this regional to avenge last year's misery than their colleague Oregon State is over in the Penn State group. Both Alabama and Nebraska should be able to perform normally in this meet and advance by a healthy margin.
For much of the season, Alabama has been running a step behind the lead pack, so winning SECs continued the dissolution of that gap between them and the top teams and allowed them to jump comfortably into the group of favorites once we get to nationals. They're now starting to look like a team that can win a championship without help. The SEC win wasn't without questions, with the Tide finishing just a small margin ahead of Florida and receiving some scores that I would deem extra friendly here and there (9.900 for Sims on beam and 9.950 on bars? Two judges giving Milliner a 10 for a non-stick?). But no other team looked definitively better, and Florida made more than its share of errors on a couple events. That tends to diffuse any righteous outrage. Alabama had several highlight routines during SECs, one of the most important being Kim Jacob on vault continuing the progression of her 1.5 with a stick. She has been a borderline member of the vault lineup for years, showing a full that wasn't as big as the usual Alabama fulls and a 1.5 that never had enough landing control to get a big score. If she can continue vaulting like this, it gives Alabama another asset that we didn't necessarily expect coming into the season on an event that needs to be a best-in-the-meet strength come Super Six.
The Tide scored a 49.650 on bars at SECs, and the big question is whether that's for real. There was a lot going into that score, being in Birmingham and finishing on bars, and I did think Florida and Georgia looked a clear step better on the event based on the routines we saw in the broadcast. But if that's how these routines are going to be evaluated as we progress, there isn't much of a limit to what Alabama can accomplish this season. Interestingly, beam was the clear weak event for Alabama at SECs, with some stepping and shakiness that we haven't seen very often this season, but as with some of Florida's mistakes, it's not a trend yet. Still, watch the bars at regionals. They'll tell us stories.
Competing teams (staring event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[9] Nebraska (bye before floor)
[16] Boise State (vault)
[20] Denver (floor)
[25] BYU (bars)
[33] Washington (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from Sacramento State (Jesse Williams, Kalliah McCartney, Kailey Hansen - vault, beam, and floor, Julia Konner - vault, Kaila Kilwien - bars, Kayla Wonderly - beam, Dallas Smith - floor), Alaska (Stefany Bryan), and Seattle Pacific (Maria Hundley - vault, bars, and beam, Tracie Villanueva - bars, Kailee Tindall - floor). Sacramento State has a Kayla, a Kailey, a Kaila, and a Kalliah. The end.
The Favorites
This regional sets up a little differently from the previous ones in that there's a bit more separation between the top seeds and the contending seeds, with Alabama and Nebraska both looking like safe bets to advance. That's not to say the other teams can't manage something interesting (we'll get to them in a moment), but Alabama is on a roll and Nebraska is situated much better in this regional to avenge last year's misery than their colleague Oregon State is over in the Penn State group. Both Alabama and Nebraska should be able to perform normally in this meet and advance by a healthy margin.
For much of the season, Alabama has been running a step behind the lead pack, so winning SECs continued the dissolution of that gap between them and the top teams and allowed them to jump comfortably into the group of favorites once we get to nationals. They're now starting to look like a team that can win a championship without help. The SEC win wasn't without questions, with the Tide finishing just a small margin ahead of Florida and receiving some scores that I would deem extra friendly here and there (9.900 for Sims on beam and 9.950 on bars? Two judges giving Milliner a 10 for a non-stick?). But no other team looked definitively better, and Florida made more than its share of errors on a couple events. That tends to diffuse any righteous outrage. Alabama had several highlight routines during SECs, one of the most important being Kim Jacob on vault continuing the progression of her 1.5 with a stick. She has been a borderline member of the vault lineup for years, showing a full that wasn't as big as the usual Alabama fulls and a 1.5 that never had enough landing control to get a big score. If she can continue vaulting like this, it gives Alabama another asset that we didn't necessarily expect coming into the season on an event that needs to be a best-in-the-meet strength come Super Six.
The Tide scored a 49.650 on bars at SECs, and the big question is whether that's for real. There was a lot going into that score, being in Birmingham and finishing on bars, and I did think Florida and Georgia looked a clear step better on the event based on the routines we saw in the broadcast. But if that's how these routines are going to be evaluated as we progress, there isn't much of a limit to what Alabama can accomplish this season. Interestingly, beam was the clear weak event for Alabama at SECs, with some stepping and shakiness that we haven't seen very often this season, but as with some of Florida's mistakes, it's not a trend yet. Still, watch the bars at regionals. They'll tell us stories.
April 2, 2013
Tuscaloosa Regional Preview
Alabama hosts our third regional, which begins at 6:00 CT, so it will be one of the last to finish. Unfortunately, I don't expect it to be that close, but if it is, at least it won't be overshadowed by all six meets going on at the same time.
Rotation order (starting event):
[3] Alabama (vault)
[9] Utah (bye before bars)
[15] Denver (bye before floor)
[23] Kent State (floor)
[30] BYU (bars)
[35] Iowa State (beam)
The Favorites
The tale grows a bit dull as we head into a third regional of the same, but Alabama, like Florida and Oklahoma, is about as locked as a lock can be to advance out of regionals. That's what happens when the top seeds host. It becomes that much less likely that they will even finish second let alone be upset. In the future, the NCAA should avoid selecting all the best schools to host in the same year.
Alabama has been surging and will feel quite pleased about finishing only one tenth (before penalty) behind Florida at SECs while competing without Ashley Sledge. The vaults are crazy powerful, and with the landings improving each week, the event is becoming an easy 49.500. There are individual blips here and there in the beam and floor rotations but nothing that would account for any fundamental disadvantage to Florida.
Rotation order (starting event):
[3] Alabama (vault)
[9] Utah (bye before bars)
[15] Denver (bye before floor)
[23] Kent State (floor)
[30] BYU (bars)
[35] Iowa State (beam)
The Favorites
The tale grows a bit dull as we head into a third regional of the same, but Alabama, like Florida and Oklahoma, is about as locked as a lock can be to advance out of regionals. That's what happens when the top seeds host. It becomes that much less likely that they will even finish second let alone be upset. In the future, the NCAA should avoid selecting all the best schools to host in the same year.
Alabama has been surging and will feel quite pleased about finishing only one tenth (before penalty) behind Florida at SECs while competing without Ashley Sledge. The vaults are crazy powerful, and with the landings improving each week, the event is becoming an easy 49.500. There are individual blips here and there in the beam and floor rotations but nothing that would account for any fundamental disadvantage to Florida.
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