Onward! Following the cue of the wildly circuitous Road to Rio we've been hearing about for the past year (I feel like there might be more efficient ways to get to Rio, like a plane or something), we move along the Road to Lovely Metropolitan Fort Worth from our first stop in Iowa to Minnesota. Wait, are we going the right direction? This feels wrong. Who's navigating this trip? TRAUTWIG!!!???
Competing teams (starting event)
[2] Florida (bye before bars)
[11] Denver (beam)
[16] Minnesota (floor)
[20] Missouri (bye before floor)
[28] Ohio State (bars)
[31] BYU (vault)
Competing individuals
Iowa State (Haylee Young – AA; Meagan Sievers – AA; Sydney Converse – VT, BB; Briana Ledesma – VT, FX; Hilary Green – UB; Alex Marasco – BB; Kelsey Paz – FX)
Air Force (Kara Witgen – AA; Jamie Lewis – AA)
UW-Whitewater (Mackenzie Smith – UB)
The favorite – Florida
Much like Oklahoma, the Florida Gators enter regionals as the heavy favorite and should win comfortably, pretty much running away with it after the first rotation, even though they'll be on a bye. The win at SECs helps reinforce Florida's status as a comfortable pick to win a fourth-straight title, though the sheer competitiveness of that meet, along with getting outscored by Oklahoma by multiple tenths that day, indicate that it's far from a safe proposition. Florida was challenged by multiple other teams during a well-hit meet. Mostly well-hit.
That brings us to the Sloan problem. You're the one who's not supposed to be a problem! What is happening? For regionals, Florida does have the leeway to make a couple errors or count a fall and still advance, but it's imperative that Sloan work out whatever is happening on beam and why. She has fallen on three of her last five beam routines, and while one of the other two hits was a 10.000, that's not a very Sloan-like record at all. At nationals, the Gators don't just need a hit from her. They need a 9.950. That's how close and high-scoring this thing is going to be. We know Sloan can pull it together, as she mas many times before. As an elite, she had a bit of a Mikulaky reputation for falling on beam on the first day and then hitting on the second day, and even two seasons ago, Bridget was a beam disaster heading into the final Saturday and then got a 20 at Super Six. She needs to Sloan it out again. Our main focus in this meet will be lower down the standings, but Sloan's beam routine in rotation three is a must-watch.
The fight – Denver v. Minnesota
This regional contest is among the more delectable because, aside from providing a potentially close race right down to the end, it guarantees a somewhat unexpected qualifier to nationals. While all three of the contenders here have advanced to nationals in the recent past (Minnesota in 2013, Missouri in 2010, Denver in 2007, 2008), none are what would be considered perennial qualifiers. Someone is going to be spoiling the old party. Also, the Jessica Lopez era was EIGHT years ago?
Denver and Minnesota have both hit tremendous highs this season marked by historically significant scores, but some of those scores have been a little...creative, particularly that weekend of meets during which these two teams squared off twice and split the series.
For instance, this Julia Ross bars routine got a 9.900, which I use to illustrate high scores and because it's one of the key routines for Denver that isn't Nina McGee's floor. They have others.
Showing posts with label Missouri. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Missouri. Show all posts
March 25, 2016
March 18, 2016
SEC Championship Preview
Saturday 3/19
Afternoon session 2:00 ET/11:00 PT
Evening session 6:00 ET/3:00 PT
It's tomorrow! Everything starts very early, with Jesolo getting underway even before the first session of Big Tens. It'll be a huge day of live blogging and gymnastics watching, so we'll have to pace ourselves early. Don't waste your energy before the big-girl sessions begin.
Finally. After years of watching poky live score spreadsheet templates that didn't even update, followed by the recent generous bestowing of an internet stream, the SEC Championship will at last be broadcast live on actual televisions this year. Happy 1968, everyone!
In an attempt to make up for doing such a terrible job at this for so long, the SEC Network is whipping out all the bells and whistles this season, with a TV broadcast accompanied by each individual event streaming online, meaning we can make sure to watch all of Georgia's beam routines from behind our fingers while still getting the competition done in a cool two hours. I'm on board. The SEC Network is also really talking up the hip new quad-meet scoring interface it will debut (to the point where it better physically shoot candy and cheeseburgers out of the TV to live up to this), so I'm eager to see what that looks like. The SEC Net has done a very good job of displaying the scores and running totals in an unobtrusive manner so far, so there's reason for optimism.
NBC really needs to take notes on what the SEC Network does with live scoring heading into the Olympics. With an easy way to update live scores at the bottom of the screen, you don't need to watch Gabby do her grips for 25 minutes while waiting for the score. You can move on to other routines, and then display the score and real-time rankings as they come in. You know, actual development and innovation, not just MEANINGLESS TRIANGLES.
EVENING SESSION
Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
While we all roll our eyes every time an SEC coach says that winning the SEC Championship is harder than winning the national championship (it objectively isn't to anyone who thinks about it for literally one second), this is still a hell of a competition with a solid five teams realistically capable of a hearty 197. Given the scores we've seen this season, however, winning this title really should take a high 197, which probably precludes Auburn and Georgia unless it's a splatfest and they slide on through. Once again, we're looking at Florida, LSU, and Alabama.
Alabama won last season, taking advantage of a beam catastrophe from Florida and beam foreshadowing wobbles from LSU to dance to the top spot with a 197.5, and Alabama's totals so far this year indicate the need for something similar. Alabama has peaked at 197.5s while LSU has gone into the 197.9s and Florida into the 198s. But, if we correct for some silly scoring and for Alabama's epic depth exploration in every meet, there's probably not actually a whole fall worth of difference between these teams. While it will be tough for Alabama to match an ideal meet from LSU or Florida based on what we've seen, I'm not willing to write off the Tide quite yet. But between Florida and LSU? Take your pick. It will be close. Let's get into it.
Rotation 1: Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor
Event RQS for rotation 1
Auburn 49.435
Florida 49.390
LSU 49.370
Alabama 49.300
You'll notice something a bit unexpected in those RQSs in that they tell us Auburn should be leading after the first rotation. It could happen because of floor reasons, but I wouldn't bet on it. Although for Auburn, it's absolutely necessary if a title challenge is in play. While Atkinson's is a definite 9.9+ routine (along with occasionally Rott, Demers, and Hlawek), the high floor RQSs across the conference and country reflect loose end-of-meet scoring rather than significant supremacy over the quality of other teams on other events. It will be tough to replicate in this context, and Auburn taking a first-rotation lead would also require a couple other teams under-performing early.
This first event is also critical for LSU to establish a high-scoring pace since bars is their weakest event (the RQS is lower on beam, but beam). Finnegan is obviously a star, and the return of Priessman ups the scoring potential, but a couple 9.800s with form breaks and lower amplitude at the beginning of the lineup put LSU's bars behind those of Florida. If LSU can get Zamardi, Finnegan, Priessman, Wyrick, and Hambrick all in the lineup at the same time, however, that should minimize counting any low scores and bolster what could be a flat event, but those five have not actually been in the same lineup yet this season. Judging by a high 197 standard, LSU must go into the 49.4s on bars to avoid falling off the pace.
Afternoon session 2:00 ET/11:00 PT
Evening session 6:00 ET/3:00 PT
It's tomorrow! Everything starts very early, with Jesolo getting underway even before the first session of Big Tens. It'll be a huge day of live blogging and gymnastics watching, so we'll have to pace ourselves early. Don't waste your energy before the big-girl sessions begin.
Finally. After years of watching poky live score spreadsheet templates that didn't even update, followed by the recent generous bestowing of an internet stream, the SEC Championship will at last be broadcast live on actual televisions this year. Happy 1968, everyone!
In an attempt to make up for doing such a terrible job at this for so long, the SEC Network is whipping out all the bells and whistles this season, with a TV broadcast accompanied by each individual event streaming online, meaning we can make sure to watch all of Georgia's beam routines from behind our fingers while still getting the competition done in a cool two hours. I'm on board. The SEC Network is also really talking up the hip new quad-meet scoring interface it will debut (to the point where it better physically shoot candy and cheeseburgers out of the TV to live up to this), so I'm eager to see what that looks like. The SEC Net has done a very good job of displaying the scores and running totals in an unobtrusive manner so far, so there's reason for optimism.
NBC really needs to take notes on what the SEC Network does with live scoring heading into the Olympics. With an easy way to update live scores at the bottom of the screen, you don't need to watch Gabby do her grips for 25 minutes while waiting for the score. You can move on to other routines, and then display the score and real-time rankings as they come in. You know, actual development and innovation, not just MEANINGLESS TRIANGLES.
EVENING SESSION
Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
While we all roll our eyes every time an SEC coach says that winning the SEC Championship is harder than winning the national championship (it objectively isn't to anyone who thinks about it for literally one second), this is still a hell of a competition with a solid five teams realistically capable of a hearty 197. Given the scores we've seen this season, however, winning this title really should take a high 197, which probably precludes Auburn and Georgia unless it's a splatfest and they slide on through. Once again, we're looking at Florida, LSU, and Alabama.
Alabama won last season, taking advantage of a beam catastrophe from Florida and beam foreshadowing wobbles from LSU to dance to the top spot with a 197.5, and Alabama's totals so far this year indicate the need for something similar. Alabama has peaked at 197.5s while LSU has gone into the 197.9s and Florida into the 198s. But, if we correct for some silly scoring and for Alabama's epic depth exploration in every meet, there's probably not actually a whole fall worth of difference between these teams. While it will be tough for Alabama to match an ideal meet from LSU or Florida based on what we've seen, I'm not willing to write off the Tide quite yet. But between Florida and LSU? Take your pick. It will be close. Let's get into it.
Rotation 1: Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor
Event RQS for rotation 1
Auburn 49.435
Florida 49.390
LSU 49.370
Alabama 49.300
You'll notice something a bit unexpected in those RQSs in that they tell us Auburn should be leading after the first rotation. It could happen because of floor reasons, but I wouldn't bet on it. Although for Auburn, it's absolutely necessary if a title challenge is in play. While Atkinson's is a definite 9.9+ routine (along with occasionally Rott, Demers, and Hlawek), the high floor RQSs across the conference and country reflect loose end-of-meet scoring rather than significant supremacy over the quality of other teams on other events. It will be tough to replicate in this context, and Auburn taking a first-rotation lead would also require a couple other teams under-performing early.
This first event is also critical for LSU to establish a high-scoring pace since bars is their weakest event (the RQS is lower on beam, but beam). Finnegan is obviously a star, and the return of Priessman ups the scoring potential, but a couple 9.800s with form breaks and lower amplitude at the beginning of the lineup put LSU's bars behind those of Florida. If LSU can get Zamardi, Finnegan, Priessman, Wyrick, and Hambrick all in the lineup at the same time, however, that should minimize counting any low scores and bolster what could be a flat event, but those five have not actually been in the same lineup yet this season. Judging by a high 197 standard, LSU must go into the 49.4s on bars to avoid falling off the pace.
February 19, 2016
Friday Live Blog – Auburn @ LSU; Florida, Michigan, Missouri
Friday, February 19
6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan - SCORES - ESPN3
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Florida @ Missouri - SCORES - SECN
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Illinois @ Michigan State - SCORES - Stream ($)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Florida @ Missouri - SCORES - SECN
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Illinois @ Michigan State - SCORES - Stream ($)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – New Hampshire, North Carolina, William
& Mary @ George Washington - SCORES - Stream($)
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – UW-Eau Claire @ Gustavus Adolphus - SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Arkansas @ Maryland - SCORES - BTN2Go ($)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Minnesota, Air Force @ Iowa State - SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Illinois State @ SEMO - SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Hamline @ Winona State - SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – UW-Stout @ UW-Oshkosh - Stream
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Centenary @ UW-Whitewater - Stream
January 30, 2016
Metroplex Live Blog
It's Metroplex! 8:00 ET/5:00 PT, streamed on Aunt Flogymnastics for those who have signed up for the arm-and-a-leg subscription. For those who haven't, let me be your guide. There are no windows and no doors.
Five teams compete tonight (Oklahoma, LSU, Stanford, Missouri, Washington) because nothing says compelling entertainment like a bye. If there's one thing sports fans love, it's when their favorite team just leaves for a while. They go crazy for it.
Obviously, the judges will have viewed the excessively baroque scoring from the Florida meet last night as a challenge. Do I hear four 10s per team? Everyone is a perfect star! Who wants a juice box and a hug?
March 28, 2015
Norman Regional Preview
It begins. Just one week until the best day of the college gymnastics year. It finally starts to matter! Over the next few days, I'll be going through each of the regionals and breaking down the main things to watch for in each competition as we bite our fingernails and giggle like unhinged death-row inmates about who is going to advance to nationals. I'll begin with the top-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and their home regional, which will begin at 5:00 ET/2:00 PT on Saturday.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before bars)
[13] Penn State (beam)
[22] Southern Utah (bye before floor)
[27] Missouri (vault)
[34] NC State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Lindenwood (Valeri Ingui - AA; Kierstin Sokolowski - AA; Courtney Heise - bars), Arizona State (Taylor Allex - AA; Natasha Sundby - floor), Illinois-Chicago (Gabrielle May - AA), SEMO (Ashley Thomas - AA), Northern Illinois (Amanda Stepp - vault), and Illinois State (Sami King - beam).
Oklahoma
It's a significant milestone for Oklahoma to come in as the #1 seed, breaking Florida's four-year streak of being the #1 overall regionals seed, but I'm not going to spend too much time on Oklahoma right now. There will be plenty of opportunity for that once the nationals previews roll around because if Oklahoma were to be eliminated at this point, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever at regionals. The #1 team, undefeated, competing at home? Come on. They would have to count at least a couple falls. Probably 20.
As often happens at regionals, the best teams get sort of overlooked on the day, especially if a rotation and a half goes by and they're already ahead by a million tenths and clearly going to win, which I pretty much expect to happen here. The focus tends to turn to the real battles to make nationals, but there are still a couple areas in Oklahoma's performances to keep half an eye on with nationals in mind, particularly cleaning up some of those bars handstands from last weekend and continuing to hone those vault landings that I've been harping on lately. Unlike Oklahoma teams of a few years ago, this team should not be in a position to give up any ground to any other team on vault (they were at home and got a 49.4 last weekend, while LSU and Florida were away getting 49.5 and 49.6). To keep pace on vault this year, it's not about stepping for 9.900. It's about having multiple 9.950s. Because you better believe Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry can not-stick for 9.950. That's the pace that's being set that every other team has to match.
Oregon State and Penn State
But let's get to the real stuff. This regional is about Oregon State and Penn State in what should be one of the most entertaining showdowns next Saturday. I expect it to go back and forth all afternoon. These two teams were in the exact same position last year, coming into regionals as the #12 and #13 teams and fighting it out for the second spot, with Penn State ultimately coming out on top by two tenths, making it to nationals for just the second time in the last decade. That also marked the second-straight year that Oregon State failed to make nationals, and is exactly what makes regionals so important for the Beavs this year. They have to make it. Three years of missing nationals? Not acceptable for a team that really should be part of the top tier but is on the verge of losing that status. It was only a few years ago (in 2011) that Oregon State finished the regular season as the #3 team in the country, seemed an easy bet to make Super Six, and was even some people's cool, alternative sleeper pick to win. That's gone now.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before bars)
[13] Penn State (beam)
[22] Southern Utah (bye before floor)
[27] Missouri (vault)
[34] NC State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Lindenwood (Valeri Ingui - AA; Kierstin Sokolowski - AA; Courtney Heise - bars), Arizona State (Taylor Allex - AA; Natasha Sundby - floor), Illinois-Chicago (Gabrielle May - AA), SEMO (Ashley Thomas - AA), Northern Illinois (Amanda Stepp - vault), and Illinois State (Sami King - beam).
Oklahoma
It's a significant milestone for Oklahoma to come in as the #1 seed, breaking Florida's four-year streak of being the #1 overall regionals seed, but I'm not going to spend too much time on Oklahoma right now. There will be plenty of opportunity for that once the nationals previews roll around because if Oklahoma were to be eliminated at this point, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever at regionals. The #1 team, undefeated, competing at home? Come on. They would have to count at least a couple falls. Probably 20.
As often happens at regionals, the best teams get sort of overlooked on the day, especially if a rotation and a half goes by and they're already ahead by a million tenths and clearly going to win, which I pretty much expect to happen here. The focus tends to turn to the real battles to make nationals, but there are still a couple areas in Oklahoma's performances to keep half an eye on with nationals in mind, particularly cleaning up some of those bars handstands from last weekend and continuing to hone those vault landings that I've been harping on lately. Unlike Oklahoma teams of a few years ago, this team should not be in a position to give up any ground to any other team on vault (they were at home and got a 49.4 last weekend, while LSU and Florida were away getting 49.5 and 49.6). To keep pace on vault this year, it's not about stepping for 9.900. It's about having multiple 9.950s. Because you better believe Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry can not-stick for 9.950. That's the pace that's being set that every other team has to match.
Oregon State and Penn State
But let's get to the real stuff. This regional is about Oregon State and Penn State in what should be one of the most entertaining showdowns next Saturday. I expect it to go back and forth all afternoon. These two teams were in the exact same position last year, coming into regionals as the #12 and #13 teams and fighting it out for the second spot, with Penn State ultimately coming out on top by two tenths, making it to nationals for just the second time in the last decade. That also marked the second-straight year that Oregon State failed to make nationals, and is exactly what makes regionals so important for the Beavs this year. They have to make it. Three years of missing nationals? Not acceptable for a team that really should be part of the top tier but is on the verge of losing that status. It was only a few years ago (in 2011) that Oregon State finished the regular season as the #3 team in the country, seemed an easy bet to make Super Six, and was even some people's cool, alternative sleeper pick to win. That's gone now.
March 20, 2015
SEC Championship Preview
Heads up. The conference championships are tomorrow, and things get started earlier than normal with the first session of Big Tens beginning at 11:30 ET. I'll be popping in and out blogging throughout the day, paying special attention to the evening sessions from Pac-12s and SECs. Can you believe we actually get to watch the SEC Championship? Live. With our eyes. It's a brand new world.
So let's get right to what we'll be looking at tomorrow using our eye holes. As with the Pac-12, I'll break the competition down by session because that's an organizing principle that helps make things less rambling (allegedly), but keep in mind as I talk about the top-ranked teams that Georgia is also a team. Even though they're in the day session, they're right in this thing for a good score and a competitive finish. Adhering to the seedings and finishing 5th would be a disappointing result, but the title race is likely to come down to the top three seeds, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. Although wouldn't it be the highlight of your life if Auburn won?
EVENING SESSION: Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
Florida enters as the top-ranked team and the easiest pick to win, but LSU does have a victory over Florida this year and is pretty much on par with the Gators in most areas, and probably stronger in a couple. The Sloan and Courville factors will be fascinating to watch. Courville has missed some serious time lately, but LSU needs her badly—especially on bars. Sloan is just trying to get back into the AA at the perfect time, but she still has some rust on beam and hasn't done floor yet. The fight will be to see which AA star is able to contribute more championship-caliber routines. That could be decisive given how evenly matched these teams are in so many areas. If you're suddenly missing a crucial 9.950 that you usually rely on, that's everything. Alabama should be able to put the pressure on both these teams and place well, but to actually win this thing, they'll have to step up the quality to a level we haven't seen yet. The capability is there, but winning may very well take a 197.900 or more, which Alabama hasn't brought this year, even at home. Let's get to it.
Rotation 1 (Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor)
As the top-ranked team, Florida gets the benefit of the best rotation order and should be able to take advantage of that for an early lead. If the Gators aren't winning after the first rotation, something will have gone wrong and we'll all be tittering with the excitement of things not going to plan. I love when things don't go to plan as long as they don't involve me. Florida has broken 49.500 in four of the last five meets, and that's the minimum level of scoring I expect in this meet from a lineup that has clearly improved over last year and ends with Baker, Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry. Hunter and McMurtry have to do poor vaults to go as low as 9.900, and while Florida does occasionally have a case of the bounce-a-thons (though mostly earlier in the season), they're also the team most likely to get a good vault score even without sitcking because those final four vaulters give away nothing in form, distance, amplitude etc. That's a tough group to match.
Alabama has the unfortunate task of starting on beam, not just because beam is a horror but because it's the hardest event to get a huge score on. That means even if they have a good rotation, they'll probably be starting from a hole. I really do enjoy this beam lineup and was pleased to see things finally come together in the most recent meet after too many consistency problems early in the year. If you haven't seen Keely McNeer do beam in a while, she's lovely and sets up the lineup perfectly for the dance-element clinic named Aja Sims and the classic bam-bam Bama routines from Williams, Beers, and Clark. Depending on how well they stick the parade of 1.5 dismounts, 49.4 is realistic. Overall, this beam rotation will give us a good sense of whether it's an Alabama day. If they get the scores on beam, they should be able to hang right with Florida and LSU for the next couple rotations on vault and floor and make a legitimate run at the title. But up until last weekend, Alabama had three consecutive meets of 49.225, and the competition here is too strong to get away with that kind of score. Suddenly you're three tenths behind and trying to make up ground against Bridget Sloan's bars and Jessie Jordan's beam, which is sort of a lost cause.
Like Alabama, LSU is in a major pressure situation in the first rotation because bars remains the big question-mark event. The performance in the most recent meet against Centenary was uncommonly rough and sorely lacked a dose of Courville, but it does highlight the fact that this rotation has the fewest likely 9.9s of all the LSU events. They'll need to use at least two of Gnat, Hambrick, and Savona, all of whom have made tremendous strides as bars workers in the last year or so, but bars is still not the ideal event for any of them. The lineup sometimes ends up being Courville and a lot of supporting 9.850s, which is good for a 49.3 but not the 49.450-49.500 that pretty much every rotation is going to need to score To get that big score, LSU needs to bring back those suck-it-because-we're-better-on-bars-than-you-think-we-are resentment sticks that so impressed everyone in the first meet of the season. For people like Jordan and Zamardi, that can turn their 9.850s into vital 9.900s. They need to do some anger bars.
The bars score is my primary hesitation in predicting LSU to win this championship. I'm worried the rotation will be a little flat. But if they do bring the sticks and shed those average scores, then I'm confident enough in the next three events to consider this meet completely even. At that point, it could just as easily go to LSU or Florida, and we'd be in for a real treat for three more rotations. Let's hope we get it. Question: if you're putting together that LSU bars lineup, do you go with Gnat or Hambrick?
Auburn is playing with the big girls now, so while Auburn has been amazing this season, we have to evaluate this team not just on the scale of their own improvement or capabilities but in comparison to the best teams in the conference. Auburn's floor is good. It can be a real asset, especially when Caitlin Atkinson is in the lineup and getting her 9.9s. I particularly appreciate the commitment to difficulty through most of the lineup coupled with the pragmatism to downgrade some of those piked full-ins to tucked in order to give away less in chest position and landing control. But at the same time, most of these floor routines are more 9.850 than 9.900, which becomes a consideration in a meet where 197.9 is the expectation and everyone will be shooting rainbows of 9.9s out of every orifice. It's a strange world where 9.850 is a score that can take you out of contention, but that's where we are. Floor 9.850s could keep them in the respectable low 197s instead of the rarefied high 197s. If Auburn is going to stay in the picture and not be the afterthought of the late session, that will require a couple 9.9s in the opening rotation.
So let's get right to what we'll be looking at tomorrow using our eye holes. As with the Pac-12, I'll break the competition down by session because that's an organizing principle that helps make things less rambling (allegedly), but keep in mind as I talk about the top-ranked teams that Georgia is also a team. Even though they're in the day session, they're right in this thing for a good score and a competitive finish. Adhering to the seedings and finishing 5th would be a disappointing result, but the title race is likely to come down to the top three seeds, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. Although wouldn't it be the highlight of your life if Auburn won?
EVENING SESSION: Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
Florida enters as the top-ranked team and the easiest pick to win, but LSU does have a victory over Florida this year and is pretty much on par with the Gators in most areas, and probably stronger in a couple. The Sloan and Courville factors will be fascinating to watch. Courville has missed some serious time lately, but LSU needs her badly—especially on bars. Sloan is just trying to get back into the AA at the perfect time, but she still has some rust on beam and hasn't done floor yet. The fight will be to see which AA star is able to contribute more championship-caliber routines. That could be decisive given how evenly matched these teams are in so many areas. If you're suddenly missing a crucial 9.950 that you usually rely on, that's everything. Alabama should be able to put the pressure on both these teams and place well, but to actually win this thing, they'll have to step up the quality to a level we haven't seen yet. The capability is there, but winning may very well take a 197.900 or more, which Alabama hasn't brought this year, even at home. Let's get to it.
Rotation 1 (Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor)
As the top-ranked team, Florida gets the benefit of the best rotation order and should be able to take advantage of that for an early lead. If the Gators aren't winning after the first rotation, something will have gone wrong and we'll all be tittering with the excitement of things not going to plan. I love when things don't go to plan as long as they don't involve me. Florida has broken 49.500 in four of the last five meets, and that's the minimum level of scoring I expect in this meet from a lineup that has clearly improved over last year and ends with Baker, Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry. Hunter and McMurtry have to do poor vaults to go as low as 9.900, and while Florida does occasionally have a case of the bounce-a-thons (though mostly earlier in the season), they're also the team most likely to get a good vault score even without sitcking because those final four vaulters give away nothing in form, distance, amplitude etc. That's a tough group to match.
Alabama has the unfortunate task of starting on beam, not just because beam is a horror but because it's the hardest event to get a huge score on. That means even if they have a good rotation, they'll probably be starting from a hole. I really do enjoy this beam lineup and was pleased to see things finally come together in the most recent meet after too many consistency problems early in the year. If you haven't seen Keely McNeer do beam in a while, she's lovely and sets up the lineup perfectly for the dance-element clinic named Aja Sims and the classic bam-bam Bama routines from Williams, Beers, and Clark. Depending on how well they stick the parade of 1.5 dismounts, 49.4 is realistic. Overall, this beam rotation will give us a good sense of whether it's an Alabama day. If they get the scores on beam, they should be able to hang right with Florida and LSU for the next couple rotations on vault and floor and make a legitimate run at the title. But up until last weekend, Alabama had three consecutive meets of 49.225, and the competition here is too strong to get away with that kind of score. Suddenly you're three tenths behind and trying to make up ground against Bridget Sloan's bars and Jessie Jordan's beam, which is sort of a lost cause.
Like Alabama, LSU is in a major pressure situation in the first rotation because bars remains the big question-mark event. The performance in the most recent meet against Centenary was uncommonly rough and sorely lacked a dose of Courville, but it does highlight the fact that this rotation has the fewest likely 9.9s of all the LSU events. They'll need to use at least two of Gnat, Hambrick, and Savona, all of whom have made tremendous strides as bars workers in the last year or so, but bars is still not the ideal event for any of them. The lineup sometimes ends up being Courville and a lot of supporting 9.850s, which is good for a 49.3 but not the 49.450-49.500 that pretty much every rotation is going to need to score To get that big score, LSU needs to bring back those suck-it-because-we're-better-on-bars-than-you-think-we-are resentment sticks that so impressed everyone in the first meet of the season. For people like Jordan and Zamardi, that can turn their 9.850s into vital 9.900s. They need to do some anger bars.
The bars score is my primary hesitation in predicting LSU to win this championship. I'm worried the rotation will be a little flat. But if they do bring the sticks and shed those average scores, then I'm confident enough in the next three events to consider this meet completely even. At that point, it could just as easily go to LSU or Florida, and we'd be in for a real treat for three more rotations. Let's hope we get it. Question: if you're putting together that LSU bars lineup, do you go with Gnat or Hambrick?
Auburn is playing with the big girls now, so while Auburn has been amazing this season, we have to evaluate this team not just on the scale of their own improvement or capabilities but in comparison to the best teams in the conference. Auburn's floor is good. It can be a real asset, especially when Caitlin Atkinson is in the lineup and getting her 9.9s. I particularly appreciate the commitment to difficulty through most of the lineup coupled with the pragmatism to downgrade some of those piked full-ins to tucked in order to give away less in chest position and landing control. But at the same time, most of these floor routines are more 9.850 than 9.900, which becomes a consideration in a meet where 197.9 is the expectation and everyone will be shooting rainbows of 9.9s out of every orifice. It's a strange world where 9.850 is a score that can take you out of contention, but that's where we are. Floor 9.850s could keep them in the respectable low 197s instead of the rarefied high 197s. If Auburn is going to stay in the picture and not be the afterthought of the late session, that will require a couple 9.9s in the opening rotation.
March 14, 2014
Feeling Kinda Friday Live Blog – Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Missouri
Friday – 3/14/14
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [3] Florida @ Missouri (Scores) (Video - all-access subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Kentucky @ [1] LSU (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Oklahoma @ [16] Arkansas (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [11] Auburn @ [4] Alabama (Scores) (Video - free)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah @ Utah State (Scores) (Video)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [12] Oregon State, Seattle Pacific @ Washington (Scores) (Video - free)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ [22] Arizona State (Scores) (Video - free)
Current rankings:
We'll get started a 7:30 ET/4:30 PT with Florida and Missouri facing off in the great battle for scores. Here are Florida's averages on each event both home and away for reference during the meet as to whether they are being more home or more away in this meet:
Vault: Home - 49.450, Away - 49.256
Bars: Home - 49.480, Away - 49.319
Beam: Home - 49.395, Away - 49.250
Floor: Home - 49.655, Away - 49.250
Floor is the big one, so those will be the scores to watch. It's not so much about Kytra, she can be worthy of a 10 anywhere, but how high the judges are willing to go for those early routines. Are they starting out 9.875-9.900, or more like 9.825?
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – [3] Florida @ Missouri (Scores) (Video - all-access subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Kentucky @ [1] LSU (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Oklahoma @ [16] Arkansas (Scores) (Video - school subscription)
8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [11] Auburn @ [4] Alabama (Scores) (Video - free)
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah @ Utah State (Scores) (Video)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [12] Oregon State, Seattle Pacific @ Washington (Scores) (Video - free)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ [22] Arizona State (Scores) (Video - free)
Current rankings:
Vault: Home - 49.450, Away - 49.256
Bars: Home - 49.480, Away - 49.319
Beam: Home - 49.395, Away - 49.250
Floor: Home - 49.655, Away - 49.250
Floor is the big one, so those will be the scores to watch. It's not so much about Kytra, she can be worthy of a 10 anywhere, but how high the judges are willing to go for those early routines. Are they starting out 9.875-9.900, or more like 9.825?
March 21, 2013
SEC Championship Preview
At the season's outset, the SEC looked to be a clear two-team race, so we have the improved refinement of Georgia and cleanliness of LSU to thank for this becoming a more competitive event than it appeared it would. While a Georgia or LSU victory would still be a surprise since each team has at least one weak event, their 197 potential will surely keep the action broadly focused on all four teams through the last rotation. That would be the case, at least, if anyone actually got to see the competition, but alas no. The SEC can't manage such a thing. Might we hope that the newly live Pac-12 Championship would put a little pressure on ESPN to do the same thing for the SEC, at least online? Yeah, I didn't think so.
Florida has been the favorite at this competition since the day that Bridget Sloan committed, and that remains the case. The Gators come in as the #1 team in the country, and the lack of clear weaknesses and the expectation (not just potential, but expectation) of double-digit 9.9s should put them ahead of Alabama. If the Tide is to win the title, landings will be to thank. Florida is too 198-capable when sticking, but if the Gators are stepping, Alabama can erode a lead .05 by .05 with sticks.
Even if Georgia and LSU hit perfectly, they're going to need some help to win. If not a counting fall, getting them in the title picture would have require at least a couple counting 9.7s. I don't see both Alabama and Florida succumbing to that, which is why the others remain on the outside. Georgia has a bit more potential to win because, on an ideal day when beam is in order and the floor landings look like they did last weekend, the mid-high 197s is a legitimate goal. LSU will be just a bit too glad to get through beam and will likely lose too much ground there to make it up on floor and vault against equally powerful teams. LSU will also be starting on vault and floor, so the team may be susceptible to stunted early scores in places where it needs huge ones.
The rotation order is as follows:
Session 1: Auburn - VT; Arkansas - UB; Kentucky - BB; Missouri - FX
Session 2: Florida - VT; Alabama - UB; Georgia - BB; LSU - FX
Florida has been the favorite at this competition since the day that Bridget Sloan committed, and that remains the case. The Gators come in as the #1 team in the country, and the lack of clear weaknesses and the expectation (not just potential, but expectation) of double-digit 9.9s should put them ahead of Alabama. If the Tide is to win the title, landings will be to thank. Florida is too 198-capable when sticking, but if the Gators are stepping, Alabama can erode a lead .05 by .05 with sticks.
Even if Georgia and LSU hit perfectly, they're going to need some help to win. If not a counting fall, getting them in the title picture would have require at least a couple counting 9.7s. I don't see both Alabama and Florida succumbing to that, which is why the others remain on the outside. Georgia has a bit more potential to win because, on an ideal day when beam is in order and the floor landings look like they did last weekend, the mid-high 197s is a legitimate goal. LSU will be just a bit too glad to get through beam and will likely lose too much ground there to make it up on floor and vault against equally powerful teams. LSU will also be starting on vault and floor, so the team may be susceptible to stunted early scores in places where it needs huge ones.
The rotation order is as follows:
Session 1: Auburn - VT; Arkansas - UB; Kentucky - BB; Missouri - FX
Session 2: Florida - VT; Alabama - UB; Georgia - BB; LSU - FX
Vault:
Each of the four teams in the final session is capable of
scoring a 49.500 on vault, so if any team gains an advantage here, it will be
because of sticks. For most of the season, Alabama has lagged behind in the
landing department, but last week the Tide got several crucial sticks while
Florida, LSU, and to a lesser extent Georgia all gave away tenths. If that can be used as evidence, Alabama should be starting to find the 49.600 form that we always knew existed.
However, if the Gators are not as bouncy as they have been too
many times on the road this season, they can certainly snatch this event.
Hunter is the strongest vaulter in the conference, King is obviously stellar,
and Sloan and Dickerson can go well above 9.900 for sticks. They will record a
big score regardless, but they must control the landings to outpace Alabama. If Alabama is still forced to use Jacob or Sims, that could also tip things toward the Gators.
Georgia’s freshman Yurchenko 1.5s have saved this team on an
event where it looked like they would give up some ground after last year, but the landings
for both Jay and Rogers have been rather hit and miss these last few weeks. When they stick, they go
9.950, but when they hop forward, they go 9.850. The Gymdogs don’t
have to win vault (and probably won’t), but they certainly can't be fighting against 9.850s from top performers. A stick from Davis for 9.900 in the leadoff position usually does wonders for the rest of the scores, so watch for that.
Of these four teams, LSU is the most reliant on a successful
vault rotation. While the others can make up for OK vaults on other
events, the Tigers know they will be losing tenths on bars and beam no matter
what, so an average rotation, even to the tune of 49.300, could take them out
of the running. Therefore, LSU sticks will be the most important sticks. If
they don’t get them, they at least better hope for that same vault judge as last year.
In the first session, Auburn should pick up some ground here
with Guy’s power and Atkinson’s clean 1.5. Arkansas will be looking to get
through a depleted event with something over 49, and Kentucky will be looking
to the back four for solid 9.850s to try to keep pace.
January 18, 2013
All Friday's Disasters (and Successes or Whatever)
Friday's live feeds:
7E/4P Missouri @ Florida (free)
7E/4P Arkansas @ Kentucky (paid)
7:30E/4:30P Auburn @ Georgia (paid)
8:30E/5:30P LSU @ Alabama (free)
10E/7P Cal, UIC, UCD @ Washington (free)
It's a busy Friday of SEC action with lots of opportunities for movement at the top of the rankings. I will be interested to see if Rhonda has changed Florida's beam lineup after counting a fall at LSU (putting in Ashanee?) or if it remains the same. Georgia's first two meets have been marked by too many 9.6s (meaning that they've been getting 9.6s), and those will need to disappear, especially at home. I expect a big-scoring meet between LSU and Alabama, and it will be vital to watch how LSU's home scores compare to road scores.
7E/4P Missouri @ Florida (free)
7E/4P Arkansas @ Kentucky (paid)
7:30E/4:30P Auburn @ Georgia (paid)
8:30E/5:30P LSU @ Alabama (free)
10E/7P Cal, UIC, UCD @ Washington (free)
It's a busy Friday of SEC action with lots of opportunities for movement at the top of the rankings. I will be interested to see if Rhonda has changed Florida's beam lineup after counting a fall at LSU (putting in Ashanee?) or if it remains the same. Georgia's first two meets have been marked by too many 9.6s (meaning that they've been getting 9.6s), and those will need to disappear, especially at home. I expect a big-scoring meet between LSU and Alabama, and it will be vital to watch how LSU's home scores compare to road scores.
April 4, 2012
Fayetteville Regional Preview
Our third Regional will take place at the University of Arkansas at 5:00 ET / 2:00 PT on Saturday and will feature [3] UCLA, [10] Arkansas, [15] Boise State, [19] Missouri, [29] New Hampshire, and [34] Maryland.
The Favorite:
Like Florida and Oklahoma, the UCLA Bruins are the clear favorite to win this Regional, and I expect them to have little trouble advancing here. Aside from the general narrative that UCLA teams peak beginning at Regionals, this UCLA team is much more secure across the apparatuses than some of the recent teams, which is the primary consideration for a top team advancing to Nationals. A great performance isn't really necessary, as we saw at Pac-12s. This team had disasters from Peszek on bars and Courtney on beam and did not succumb to having to count a low score and didn't let it deflate the overall performance (which was adequate but lackluster both before and after the falls). At this point, UCLA is a near guarantee for a 49.450+ on vault, and so a parade of 9.850s on the other events is all they'll need to secure a top two finish.
As is always the case with UCLA teams, even though it is April, I still have multiple questions about the lineups. One of the major questions regards Kaelie Baer and where she fits in. She's been the leadoff on vault all season, but in my mind the best vault lineup would be Hopfner-Hibbs, Larson, Peszek, Courtney, Frattone, and Zamarripa. So, does Val make the change or keep Baer in that position? Also, Courtney was put into Baer's spot on beam at Pac-12s but had a disaster, so does Baer get the spot back? To me, it's a question of attitude. Baer is perhaps the safer choice but doesn't have a huge scoring potential.
We've become so used to talking about beam when it comes to UCLA, but I actually have confidence in the primary five to hit and avoid counting a fall. In evaluating the prospects for Nationals, the most tenuous apparatus for the Bruins is bars. This year should have been an improvement on that event, but with Wong's injury and Whitcomb's injury/handstands/disappearance, we've seen little progress at all. No one has been great so far, and this group is too capable of slogging along for 9.825s, which is fine for now but won't be in Duluth. This dismounts in particular need to come together because many were not even close to sticking at Pac-12s.
The Favorite:
Like Florida and Oklahoma, the UCLA Bruins are the clear favorite to win this Regional, and I expect them to have little trouble advancing here. Aside from the general narrative that UCLA teams peak beginning at Regionals, this UCLA team is much more secure across the apparatuses than some of the recent teams, which is the primary consideration for a top team advancing to Nationals. A great performance isn't really necessary, as we saw at Pac-12s. This team had disasters from Peszek on bars and Courtney on beam and did not succumb to having to count a low score and didn't let it deflate the overall performance (which was adequate but lackluster both before and after the falls). At this point, UCLA is a near guarantee for a 49.450+ on vault, and so a parade of 9.850s on the other events is all they'll need to secure a top two finish.
As is always the case with UCLA teams, even though it is April, I still have multiple questions about the lineups. One of the major questions regards Kaelie Baer and where she fits in. She's been the leadoff on vault all season, but in my mind the best vault lineup would be Hopfner-Hibbs, Larson, Peszek, Courtney, Frattone, and Zamarripa. So, does Val make the change or keep Baer in that position? Also, Courtney was put into Baer's spot on beam at Pac-12s but had a disaster, so does Baer get the spot back? To me, it's a question of attitude. Baer is perhaps the safer choice but doesn't have a huge scoring potential.
We've become so used to talking about beam when it comes to UCLA, but I actually have confidence in the primary five to hit and avoid counting a fall. In evaluating the prospects for Nationals, the most tenuous apparatus for the Bruins is bars. This year should have been an improvement on that event, but with Wong's injury and Whitcomb's injury/handstands/disappearance, we've seen little progress at all. No one has been great so far, and this group is too capable of slogging along for 9.825s, which is fine for now but won't be in Duluth. This dismounts in particular need to come together because many were not even close to sticking at Pac-12s.
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