The fourth-most exciting day of the college gymnastics season has finally arrived! I know you've had it circled on your calendars for months. It is a big one, with some important elite action thrown in, so I prepared a schedule. Everything is better with a chart.
Also, keep an eye on the rankings coming into the day, the final chance for teams to change their lot. The full breakdown of what teams need is here.
AFTERNOON SESSION
Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State
Dating from time immemorial (so, 2012 when Nebraska joined the Big Ten), the quest for conference supremacy has been a fight between the Wolverines and the Huskers, attempting to answer the age-old question of which is better, a weird tiny skunk-bear or an ear of corn. The big two. This year, I don't see much reason to change the world order.
That would have been an easier proclamation to make before the underwater hallucination circus that was that Big Five meet at Penn State, suddenly won by Minnesota and a bucket of cracky judging, but other than ensuring that we don't ignore Minnesota's 197 potential in the postseason, that meet shouldn't really change the statuses of Michigan as favorite, Nebraska as next-best-favorite, Minnesota as also-almost-next-best-favorite, and Iowa as hey-you're-a-team-this-year.
In spite of losing to Nebraska earlier in the season, Michigan's scoring potential remains the highest among the teams in this competition, and there's a solid argument to be made that Michigan is the strongest team in the conference on all four apparatuses. At least, that's what the rankings tell us. Really, Michigan is the top team on all four apparatuses***, and *** means AHHHBEAM. As it always does.
Three of Michigan's last four beam scores have been under 49, each including at least two falls, and the team has not hit 6-for-6 on beam since February 14th. So that's not ideal. Of significant concern, the falls are coming from everyone at various times, most recently their two best beamers in Artz and Chiarelli. At this point in the season, with nine or ten realistic Super Six contenders, we're looking for any reason to doubt a team, and a month of beam falls is a reason to doubt a team. The Wolverines have still managed scores in the high 196s and low 197s with these beam mistakes, but it should take more than a 197.0 to win a major conference title in the current scoring climate, so it's quite hard to see Michigan winning while also counting a fall. Beam is up in the fourth rotation for them, so we won't truly know where the competition stands until then.
The positive we can draw from the high 196s-low 197s with beam falls is that if Michigan does hit five beam routines, we'll see a mid-197, which really should be enough to sweep up the title. Michigan has a vault difficulty edge, featuring the highest score in the country in Karas, and three floor workers in Artz, Chiarelli, and Karas who should all be going 9.900+. It will be tough for the other teams in the country to match both of those assets.
Coming off two straight 197s, however, Nebraska looks the most likely team to do it, having regained the potential to challenge a hit meet from Michigan by restoring a modicum of depth in the last couple weeks. This long-awaited return to the 197 club has been marked by a sudden and somewhat unexpected influx of floor 9.9s, particularly from gymnasts who had not been floor stars in previous seasons like Breen and Laeng. The Huskers are still forced to use some backup routines they would rather not be, particularly on bars, which means a higher potential for 9.700-9.750s. Danger-zone scores. The situation on bars has been exacerbated by Jennie Laeng's elbow injury. She's by far their best bars worker, but in spite of returning on the other three events, she has remained out on bars, which depresses the scoring potential.
As championship season begins, the title picture remains relatively unchanged from its position at the beginning of year. Oklahoma has proven itself a serious contender instead of a peripheral one, and UCLA has dropped down because of injuries, but by and large this is where we expected to be.
We might have hoped that the Super Six outlook, which seemed rather fuzzy in December and January, would work itself out during the season, but it remains as uncertain as ever. The top eleven teams in the country can all claim a Super Six status of at least possible. For the teams currently at the back of that group (Nebraska, Oregon State, and Stanford), today will be crucial in determining their postseason fates. There will be no more playing around with lineups or strategies about peaking at the right time. This begins the peaking time, and those teams will decide whether we whittle down that group of eleven today.
Since 1989, no team has won the National Championship without placing in the top two at a conference championship. Also remember that we will have four judges beginning today instead of two. Throwing out scores tends to even out the scoring a little bit and mitigate the influence of slaphappy judges. Gymnasts who have been getting a bunch of forgiving 9.875s and 9.925s will see those go down to 9.850s and 9.900s today.
Come one, come all. We have more championships going on tomorrow than you could possibly know what to do with. This day is becoming increasingly less frustrating in terms of updates every year, and the addition of a live TV broadcast of Pac-12s helps significantly, as does the fact that the SEC now understands that the internet is a place where information can be communicated to others. They already have the scoring link up this year! I'm so proud.
It's going to be a lo-ong day, but I wouldn't have it any other way. I'll be popping in with updates throughout the day, giving special focus to the second sessions of Big Tens, SECs, and Pac-12s. Updates from the Big Ten Championship from those who can watch it on the Big Ten Network would be much appreciated.
A few of the lesser championships will be providing live streams for those interested, so really the only lagging conference is the SEC. We'll all have to follow the scores together and make really self-righteous, really unsubstantiated comments about them. Yay!
I've already picked UCLA for Pac-12s and Florida for SECs, so here it goes for the rest. I say Michigan takes Big Tens with something in the mid 197s. Nebraska will contend but can't match Michigan's scoring potential. If Oklahoma wins Big 12s by anything less than 1.500, it counts as an upset. I like NC State to upset Maryland at EAGLs, but I'll take the top seeds, Denver and Kent State, in their respective conferences.
