The fourth-most exciting day of the college gymnastics season has finally arrived! I know you've had it circled on your calendars for months. It is a big one, with some important elite action thrown in, so I prepared a schedule. Everything is better with a chart.
Also, keep an eye on the rankings coming into the day, the final chance for teams to change their lot. The full breakdown of what teams need is here.
It's tomorrow! Everything starts very early, with Jesolo getting underway even before the first session of Big Tens. It'll be a huge day of live blogging and gymnastics watching, so we'll have to pace ourselves early. Don't waste your energy before the big-girl sessions begin.
Finally. After years of watching poky live score spreadsheet templates that didn't even update, followed by the recent generous bestowing of an internet stream, the SEC Championship will at last be broadcast live on actual televisions this year. Happy 1968, everyone!
In an attempt to make up for doing such a terrible job at this for so long, the SEC Network is whipping out all the bells and whistles this season, with a TV broadcast accompanied by each individual event streaming online, meaning we can make sure to watch all of Georgia's beam routines from behind our fingers while still getting the competition done in a cool two hours. I'm on board. The SEC Network is also really talking up the hip new quad-meet scoring interface it will debut (to the point where it better physically shoot candy and cheeseburgers out of the TV to live up to this), so I'm eager to see what that looks like. The SEC Net has done a very good job of displaying the scores and running totals in an unobtrusive manner so far, so there's reason for optimism.
NBC really needs to take notes on what the SEC Network does with live scoring heading into the Olympics. With an easy way to update live scores at the bottom of the screen, you don't need to watch Gabby do her grips for 25 minutes while waiting for the score. You can move on to other routines, and then display the score and real-time rankings as they come in. You know, actual development and innovation, not just MEANINGLESS TRIANGLES.
EVENING SESSION
Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
While we all roll our eyes every time an SEC coach says that winning the SEC Championship is harder than winning the national championship (it objectively isn't to anyone who thinks about it for literally one second), this is still a hell of a competition with a solid five teams realistically capable of a hearty 197. Given the scores we've seen this season, however, winning this title really should take a high 197, which probably precludes Auburn and Georgia unless it's a splatfest and they slide on through. Once again, we're looking at Florida, LSU, and Alabama.
Alabama won last season, taking advantage of a beam catastrophe from Florida and beam foreshadowing wobbles from LSU to dance to the top spot with a 197.5, and Alabama's totals so far this year indicate the need for something similar. Alabama has peaked at 197.5s while LSU has gone into the 197.9s and Florida into the 198s. But, if we correct for some silly scoring and for Alabama's epic depth exploration in every meet, there's probably not actually a whole fall worth of difference between these teams. While it will be tough for Alabama to match an ideal meet from LSU or Florida based on what we've seen, I'm not willing to write off the Tide quite yet. But between Florida and LSU? Take your pick. It will be close. Let's get into it.
You'll notice something a bit unexpected in those RQSs in that they tell us Auburn should be leading after the first rotation. It could happen because of floor reasons, but I wouldn't bet on it. Although for Auburn, it's absolutely necessary if a title challenge is in play. While Atkinson's is a definite 9.9+ routine (along with occasionally Rott, Demers, and Hlawek), the high floor RQSs across the conference and country reflect loose end-of-meet scoring rather than significant supremacy over the quality of other teams on other events. It will be tough to replicate in this context, and Auburn taking a first-rotation lead would also require a couple other teams under-performing early.
This first event is also critical for LSU to establish a high-scoring pace since bars is their weakest event (the RQS is lower on beam, but beam). Finnegan is obviously a star, and the return of Priessman ups the scoring potential, but a couple 9.800s with form breaks and lower amplitude at the beginning of the lineup put LSU's bars behind those of Florida. If LSU can get Zamardi, Finnegan, Priessman, Wyrick, and Hambrick all in the lineup at the same time, however, that should minimize counting any low scores and bolster what could be a flat event, but those five have not actually been in the same lineup yet this season. Judging by a high 197 standard, LSU must go into the 49.4s on bars to avoid falling off the pace.
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Pac-12 Championship Session 2 (Salt Lake City, UT) (Scores) (Stream, w/ TV subscription)
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – MPSF Championship (Anchorage, AK) (Scores) (Stream)
It's happening. And it's going to be a long day. Make sure you have your provisions. Lots of snacks. More booze. Your shrine to Stella Umeh. The usual. I'll start blogging in earnest around 2:00 ET with the start of the SEC Championship.
Note that the EAGL Championship isn't until tomorrow, which will be surprising if you're me and thought it was today. It was originally supposed to be today, as all conference championships are, but George Washington wasn't able to host because of another scheduling conflict (why aren't these things worked out in advance?), so now it's tomorrow at Towson.
Heads up. The conference championships are tomorrow, and things get started earlier than normal with the first session of Big Tens beginning at 11:30 ET. I'll be popping in and out blogging throughout the day, paying special attention to the evening sessions from Pac-12s and SECs. Can you believe we actually get to watch the SEC Championship? Live. With our eyes. It's a brand new world.
So let's get right to what we'll be looking at tomorrow using our eye holes. As with the Pac-12, I'll break the competition down by session because that's an organizing principle that helps make things less rambling (allegedly), but keep in mind as I talk about the top-ranked teams that Georgia is also a team. Even though they're in the day session, they're right in this thing for a good score and a competitive finish. Adhering to the seedings and finishing 5th would be a disappointing result, but the title race is likely to come down to the top three seeds, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. Although wouldn't it be the highlight of your life if Auburn won?
EVENING SESSION: Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
Florida enters as the top-ranked team and the easiest pick to win, but LSU does have a victory over Florida this year and is pretty much on par with the Gators in most areas, and probably stronger in a couple. The Sloan and Courville factors will be fascinating to watch. Courville has missed some serious time lately, but LSU needs her badly—especially on bars. Sloan is just trying to get back into the AA at the perfect time, but she still has some rust on beam and hasn't done floor yet. The fight will be to see which AA star is able to contribute more championship-caliber routines. That could be decisive given how evenly matched these teams are in so many areas. If you're suddenly missing a crucial 9.950 that you usually rely on, that's everything. Alabama should be able to put the pressure on both these teams and place well, but to actually win this thing, they'll have to step up the quality to a level we haven't seen yet. The capability is there, but winning may very well take a 197.900 or more, which Alabama hasn't brought this year, even at home. Let's get to it.
As the top-ranked team, Florida gets the benefit of the best rotation order and should be able to take advantage of that for an early lead. If the Gators aren't winning after the first rotation, something will have gone wrong and we'll all be tittering with the excitement of things not going to plan. I love when things don't go to plan as long as they don't involve me. Florida has broken 49.500 in four of the last five meets, and that's the minimum level of scoring I expect in this meet from a lineup that has clearly improved over last year and ends with Baker, Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry. Hunter and McMurtry have to do poor vaults to go as low as 9.900, and while Florida does occasionally have a case of the bounce-a-thons (though mostly earlier in the season), they're also the team most likely to get a good vault score even without sitcking because those final four vaulters give away nothing in form, distance, amplitude etc. That's a tough group to match.
Alabama has the unfortunate task of starting on beam, not just because beam is a horror but because it's the hardest event to get a huge score on. That means even if they have a good rotation, they'll probably be starting from a hole. I really do enjoy this beam lineup and was pleased to see things finally come together in the most recent meet after too many consistency problems early in the year. If you haven't seen Keely McNeer do beam in a while, she's lovely and sets up the lineup perfectly for the dance-element clinic named Aja Sims and the classic bam-bam Bama routines from Williams, Beers, and Clark. Depending on how well they stick the parade of 1.5 dismounts, 49.4 is realistic. Overall, this beam rotation will give us a good sense of whether it's an Alabama day. If they get the scores on beam, they should be able to hang right with Florida and LSU for the next couple rotations on vault and floor and make a legitimate run at the title. But up until last weekend, Alabama had three consecutive meets of 49.225, and the competition here is too strong to get away with that kind of score. Suddenly you're three tenths behind and trying to make up ground against Bridget Sloan's bars and Jessie Jordan's beam, which is sort of a lost cause.
Like Alabama, LSU is in a major pressure situation in the first rotation because bars remains the big question-mark event. The performance in the most recent meet against Centenary was uncommonly rough and sorely lacked a dose of Courville, but it does highlight the fact that this rotation has the fewest likely 9.9s of all the LSU events. They'll need to use at least two of Gnat, Hambrick, and Savona, all of whom have made tremendous strides as bars workers in the last year or so, but bars is still not the ideal event for any of them. The lineup sometimes ends up being Courville and a lot of supporting 9.850s, which is good for a 49.3 but not the 49.450-49.500 that pretty much every rotation is going to need to score To get that big score, LSU needs to bring back those suck-it-because-we're-better-on-bars-than-you-think-we-are resentment sticks that so impressed everyone in the first meet of the season. For people like Jordan and Zamardi, that can turn their 9.850s into vital 9.900s. They need to do some anger bars.
The bars score is my primary hesitation in predicting LSU to win this championship. I'm worried the rotation will be a little flat. But if they do bring the sticks and shed those average scores, then I'm confident enough in the next three events to consider this meet completely even. At that point, it could just as easily go to LSU or Florida, and we'd be in for a real treat for three more rotations. Let's hope we get it. Question: if you're putting together that LSU bars lineup, do you go with Gnat or Hambrick?
Auburn is playing with the big girls now, so while Auburn has been amazing this season, we have to evaluate this team not just on the scale of their own improvement or capabilities but in comparison to the best teams in the conference. Auburn's floor is good. It can be a real asset, especially when Caitlin Atkinson is in the lineup and getting her 9.9s. I particularly appreciate the commitment to difficulty through most of the lineup coupled with the pragmatism to downgrade some of those piked full-ins to tucked in order to give away less in chest position and landing control. But at the same time, most of these floor routines are more 9.850 than 9.900, which becomes a consideration in a meet where 197.9 is the expectation and everyone will be shooting rainbows of 9.9s out of every orifice. It's a strange world where 9.850 is a score that can take you out of contention, but that's where we are. Floor 9.850s could keep them in the respectable low 197s instead of the rarefied high 197s. If Auburn is going to stay in the picture and not be the afterthought of the late session, that will require a couple 9.9s in the opening rotation.
When Missouri joined the SEC and the conference championship switched from a one-session, seven-team behemoth to a two-session meet, there was some push back from a few coaches. (I think Jay Clark wanted it to be contested over two days with several rounds, or something wildly unnecessary.) Flash forward two years, and it has worked out splendidly. With four legitimate title contenders for the last two seasons, the second session of SECs has been equivalent to the lamely named "Four on the Floor" that several of the coaches have long advocated instead of Super Six. Florida, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia will be lobbing 9.950s at each other all meet long in what Bart Connor will inevitably call a "four-ring circus," and it's going to take maintaining an exceptional level across all four events to even consider winning this meet. One 49.250 rotation will be enough to bump any team out of it. Having to count a couple 9.825s on bars last year was enough to keep Alabama below Florida, and I have to think that multiple 9.825s will be similarly poisonous this year. "Fine routine" = "Enjoy 4th place."
And believe it or not, in the SEC the top four seeds are actually competing at the end of the competition, after the bottom four seeds. You know, like at a sporting event. At the risk of turning into too much of a Sarah-Patterson-at-Nationals in my SEC praise (if there were a pull-string doll of Sarah Patterson, it would just say, "It's great to be here with all these wonderful SEC teams" over and over again), the Pac 12 can still boast that its event is actually broadcast live on TV, which may be the trump card.
Each of the four teams in the final session can manage a couple 49.500 rotations, so it's going to take at least a very high 197 to win the title, if not a 198. Florida, Alabama, and LSU have all reached 198 this year, and I would actually be mildly surprised if none of the three teams manage it at SECs the way the scoring has been going. If the judges maintain the same standard they have used during the regular season, they will be pushed high on every event right from the start and will have to stay there all meet.
Of the big four, Georgia has the toughest battle for the title because there are still some questions about floor and possibly beam. Questions won't cut it in a session this competitive, and they're probably going to need season highs on both beam and floor to stay with everyone else. Based on what we've seen lately, if Florida nails four events, I think they're the best team in the country, but the margin is small enough that they'll have to nail all four events without any kind of a landing lull. Alabama being in Birmingham may have an influence on the performance (they'll have the crowd certainly), but I'm not expecting some kind of huge or noticeable home-scoring advantage, mostly because all the scores are going to be high for everyone. There's no room for a home boost in this field in a 10-capped system. That said, if Alabama wins would I be surprised? Not even slightly. LSU? A little. Georgia? Yes.
Let's get into it. The rotation order is as follows:
Session 1: Auburn - VT; Arkansas - UB; Kentucky - BB; Missouri - FX
Session 2: Florida - VT; LSU - UB; Alabama - BB; Georgia - FX
Vault:
Each of the teams in the second group has recorded several fantastic numbers on vault, and vault has probably been the most consistently high-scoring event of the four, which is traditional but also means that we could see rather even scoring here without one team taking a major advantage. I don't anticipate the meet being decided on vault unless one team really forgets to pack its sticks. We should see several 49.5s here that basically keep everyone in sight of each other for the other events.
It's an interesting dynamic on vault because Florida probably has the best final duo in Sloan and Hunter (I'll allow debate on the matter, but that's my assessment), but they have not been the best team on vault this season because they can be beat in the beginning of the lineup. LSU lays claim to being the strongest vaulting team because they can realistically get a 9.9 from every spot in the lineup, while Florida, Alabama, and Georgia are much more likely to start with a couple 9.850s, which makes the difference. For LSU, the lowest score often ends up being for Ashleigh Gnat's gargantuan 1.5 in the fourth position, solely because it's so much harder to stick that one. If LSU is going to win (which is certainly possible but I would still consider it an upset if they did), they'll need to take advantage of the 1-6 depth they possess and get those big scores from Dickson and Jordan right from the start. The first three or four vault scores for each team will be a telling comparison as we go through the meet.
Here we stand, the SEC Championship broadcast five days after the competition ended. ESPNU has finally gotten around to showing the event after completing a four-day marathon of Division III hopscotch, or whatever this network usually shows.
It's never as interesting to watch a competition like this after the fact, but it will still be a valuable experience for evaluating levels of postseason readiness as well as scoring accuracy.
We begin with a brief recap of the JV session and Auburn on the vault. Nice power as always from Guy and Atkinson, but those landings need much more control. They cannot give away those .100s if they want to keep pace with Minnesota's vaulting at regionals.
Otherwise, it's just bits and pieces of routines to make sure everyone feels included. Grable's excellent back 1.5, front 1/1, front half stepout got its moment, as did some uncontrolled vault and floor landings from both teams in the final rotation until Guy's hit anchor routine for 9.900. Suzanne interviews Jeff Graba. He seems charming and slightly nervous.
I'm sure these coaches will all be really pleased by these unflattering shots of them laughing. Bridget Sloan is never not dancing.
Rotation 1:
We start with Clark on bars instead of the usual leadoff Sledge, who had a strained back. Alabama ended up going out of order on this event and brought it to the attention of the judges for a one-tenth deduction. Clark had a couple leg separations on her shaposh and bail handstand, cut off her handstands to a degree, and stepped back on the dismount. Demeo can be very hit and miss on bars, but this time her handstands looked mostly fine (I still hate that composition choice of the half turn, which is just asking to be deducted). She sticks the DLO. Priess finishes with a very aggressive routine, she's rounding into form, with a hop on the DLO that is still piked a little but much stronger than it was a month ago.
As championship season begins, the title picture remains relatively unchanged from its position at the beginning of year. Oklahoma has proven itself a serious contender instead of a peripheral one, and UCLA has dropped down because of injuries, but by and large this is where we expected to be.
We might have hoped that the Super Six outlook, which seemed rather fuzzy in December and January, would work itself out during the season, but it remains as uncertain as ever. The top eleven teams in the country can all claim a Super Six status of at least possible. For the teams currently at the back of that group (Nebraska, Oregon State, and Stanford), today will be crucial in determining their postseason fates. There will be no more playing around with lineups or strategies about peaking at the right time. This begins the peaking time, and those teams will decide whether we whittle down that group of eleven today.
Since 1989, no team has won the National Championship without placing in the top two at a conference championship. Also remember that we will have four judges beginning today instead of two. Throwing out scores tends to even out the scoring a little bit and mitigate the influence of slaphappy judges. Gymnasts who have been getting a bunch of forgiving 9.875s and 9.925s will see those go down to 9.850s and 9.900s today.
Come one, come all. We have more championships going on tomorrow than you could possibly know what to do with. This day is becoming increasingly less frustrating in terms of updates every year, and the addition of a live TV broadcast of Pac-12s helps significantly, as does the fact that the SEC now understands that the internet is a place where information can be communicated to others. They already have the scoring link up this year! I'm so proud.
It's going to be a lo-ong day, but I wouldn't have it any other way. I'll be popping in with updates throughout the day, giving special focus to the second sessions of Big Tens, SECs, and Pac-12s. Updates from the Big Ten Championship from those who can watch it on the Big Ten Network would be much appreciated.
A few of the lesser championships will be providing live streams for those interested, so really the only lagging conference is the SEC. We'll all have to follow the scores together and make really self-righteous, really unsubstantiated comments about them. Yay!
I've already picked UCLA for Pac-12s and Florida for SECs, so here it goes for the rest. I say Michigan takes Big Tens with something in the mid 197s. Nebraska will contend but can't match Michigan's scoring potential. If Oklahoma wins Big 12s by anything less than 1.500, it counts as an upset. I like NC State to upset Maryland at EAGLs, but I'll take the top seeds, Denver and Kent State, in their respective conferences.
