We sort of know what's going to happen to former elites when they enter the NCAA ranks. Sort of. If you're crazy good, you probably shouldn't stop being crazy good all of a sudden. But there are all kinds of subcategories below crazy good that most people occupy, and when the NCAA CoP comes into play and limits what can be gained simply from mashing in the difficulty or absorbing errors, it can disrupt the previous balance of power.
The example I always use, because it's still recent (except I just realized it kind of isn't anymore) and pretty stark, is one Shayla Worley on bars. As an elite, Shayla was all about them bars. She was Duchess Tkatchev of Orlando. She made the 2007 team specifically to do bars in the team final (and floor, but mostly bars), and when we all agreed to pretend like the 2008 team selection came down to finding a bars worker to be the 6th member of the team, she seemed right in the hunt.
In spite of her pedigree and accomplishments, however, Shayla's bars never became a major NCAA routine, mostly because of the dismount. That double front was never going to cut it in NCAA, both in the scoring department and the staying-alive department, so instead, she had to learn a DLO that never really became comfortable for her. (Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs had to do the same thing at around the same time, and also developed a mostly troubling DLO that was the primary culprit keeping her from weekly 9.9s). Because of that, and in spite of her clear talent on bars, Shayla was usually stuck at 9.850 instead of becoming the big fat star her elite success seemed to foretell.
On the other side of the argument, we now have Alex McMurtry. (Not an elite, but) she was known for having a bars routine that fell clearly below the level of her other events and her top JO contemporaries. I believe in my preview of the 2015 season, I may have invoked the word "Brestyan's" when describing her bars work, which was probably overstating it a bit, but she was not expected to make an impact on bars for Florida.
(This commentary is a complete LOL now, by the way. No, she would never water down. How dare you suggest such a thing. Also note how Tim compared her gienger to Nastia's. Nastia laughed way too hard. Then immediately ran to a closet and snapped 50 pencils.)
But in the 2015 NCAA season, McMurtry managed to pull off the very rare Reverse Shayla, turning her routine from a nope into something that won Super Six. (And bested Shayla Worley's career high on bars in the process. Welcome to 2015 Super Six scoring, as we've over-discussed already.)
Florida definitely refined this routine quite a bit, but that's easier to do when you take out the hard parts. It's all about having a dismount. That's the difference between McMurtry and Shayla. Getting back that exceptional tuck full makes the whole routine. In spite of having no previous reputation for success on bars, this routine becomes a winner because of one vital, excellent skill. (And exposes some of the holes in the CoP, but holes exist to be exploited.) Get to NCAA, and the balance of power changes. An 8.9 in JO ends up with a better career high than a Worlds TF competitor.
Which is to say, we don't always know what will happen. Part of the joy of watching gymnasts move from elite/L10 into NCAA is in seeing how expectations shift, quality and stature evolve, and previous hierarchies are abolished. It happens all the time, and it can be fun to go back and compare how things stacked up in elite gymnastics compared to how they eventually played out in NCAA. (I should note at this time that I don't know what fun is.) This is the kind of rambling that the post-NCAA, pre-major-elite-events season is for.
I was just checking the standings from 2010 US Nationals, GREAT WEEKEND PLANS, and it's amusing to look back on those results knowing what we know now. Since I've already been talking about bars, I'll keep things there. These are the final rankings on bars from 2010 US Nationals, with the gymnasts who competed NCAA (excluding Whitcomb and Lee, who didn't really have NCAA careers) noted in bold.
1. Rebecca Bross
2. Cassie Whitcomb
3. Mattie Larson
4. Mackenzie Caquatto
5. Chelsea Davis
6. Morgan Smith
7. Vanessa Zamarripa
8. Sophia Lee
9. Samantha Shapiro
9. Bridgey Caquatto
11. Aly Raisman
12. Jaclyn McCartin
13. Kaitlyn Clark
14. Kytra Hunter
15. Georgia Dabritz
16. Rheagan Courville
17. Annette Miele
18. Lauren Beers
19. Brandie Jay
19. Briley Casanova
Showing posts with label Rheagan Courville. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rheagan Courville. Show all posts
June 1, 2015
December 29, 2014
#3 LSU Preview
Recent History
No rise has been more immediate and dramatic than LSU's. Just a few years ago, LSU had a horrific 2011 season where everyone got a 9.700 and the team made no mark whatsoever, sputtering out of the Georgia regional with a distant 195.350. After that, everything changed. The Tigers returned to nationals in 2012 riding the increased depth provided by the Courville, Jordan, Hall class, and by 2013, they managed to turn things around on their traditional weaknesses, bars and beam, to become a true four-event team that can realistically challenge for a title. That year, they returned to Super Six for the first time since the Jackson/Clare-Kearney era, finishing 5th, then stepped up that result in 2014, finishing 3rd behind the Oklahoma/Florida tie in an all-time best result for the program.
2015 Outlook
LSU has never been better. While the 2014 team has a good argument as the most talented squad LSU has ever produced, the 2015 team may have a better one. There's every reason to have the highest expectations for this team. Making Super Six may have been a big deal for LSU in 2013, but they're past that now. Simply making the final, simply finishing 4th or 5th, is no longer good enough. They're in the hunt to win, and while they still have work to do to catch up with the depth of 9.9s from Florida and Oklahoma, an LSU championship is not an unrealistic or strange notion. They can do it and should at least put up a hearty challenge. Any finish worse than 3rd would be a disappointment. Welcome to the world of expectations.
The best argument in LSU's corner is that, when counting returning scores, they have the highest total in the country. The Tigers were pretty close to Florida and Oklahoma last year, and they have lost fewer valuable routines than either team. Not having Sarie Morrison on vault and bars will be an issue, but for the most part, the core is back and many of the lineups will end up looking very similar to last season. It's not a year of reinvention for LSU. It's a year of continuing on the same track and doing exactly what they did last year, only with fewer weird 9.8s at championships. Rheagan Courville and Jessie Jordan will lead the way in the all-around once again with three-event support from Ashleigh Gnat and potentially Britney Ranzy and spot contributions from Lloimincia Hall and Jessica Savona on floor. That's already a healthy pack of reliable 9.9s (probably about ten of them) from returning standouts, but we should also expect to see impressive moments from the freshmen Erin Macadaeg and Myia Hambrick. Both can contribute on multiple events, but most importantly, they should provide options on beam to beef up the depth on one of the team's traditional weaknesses that can't (and shouldn't) be one anymore.
Vault
Returning lineup — Rheagan Courville (9.940), Jessie Jordan (9.915), Ashleigh Gnat (9.890), Britney Ranzy (9.870)
LSU has a powerhouse reputation for a reason. When they're good, vault is usually why, and the last few seasons have been no exception. The Tigers finished the regular season ranked #1 on vault in 2014, which makes it easy to say, "Yes. LSU. Vault. Next." but it's important not to take events for granted. Evidence for that comes from the last two postseasons, where LSU's vaulting has been only OK and not as strong as it needs to be. You're LSU. Why is anyone vaulting a 9.825? Pull it together.
This year, LSU will once again be among the best vaulting teams and will receive plenty of those coveted 49.500s. Still, keep an eye on the depth because this is not a hugely huge group where 9.9s are popping out of every seam. The team has a few definite standouts who can get 9.950s, but those standouts will be relied upon to deliver each week. Rheagan Courville usually lands her yurchenko full somewhere in Texas. She has the best distance in the game, coupled with clean form, so her score usually comes down solely to landing control. She'll be in it for 10s. Ashleigh Gnat is extremely powerful, which we know because her 1.5 is way too easy. She finishes that vault crazy early, so we should expect control on landings. Jessie Jordan tends to compete early in the lineup, but her full is also top class and worthy of 9.9s, which it would probably get more often if she were later in the lineup. Britney Ranzy was in the Olympic mix in 2008 because of her vaulting, and I was pleased to her finally make the lineup full-time last year. The previous year it was more, how is LSU so good at vault that they don't even need to use Britney Ranzy?
Speaking of people finally making it into the vault lineup, have we just given up on Savona vaulting for this team? She was great at it once upon a time. Oh well. In the rest of the lineup, Hall is always an option (but probably for 9.825s) and transfer Scarlett Williams can provide a y1/2 for 9.850, but we could—should?—see the freshmen Macadaeg and Hambrick round out the competing six. Both have solid form and competitive height and distance and should live up to the expectations we have for LSU's vaulting. Without Morrison and Dickson (both of whom had RQSs of 9.9+), there's a chance for some regression from last season depending on how the freshmen perform, but if Courville and Gnat are doing their thing, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.
No rise has been more immediate and dramatic than LSU's. Just a few years ago, LSU had a horrific 2011 season where everyone got a 9.700 and the team made no mark whatsoever, sputtering out of the Georgia regional with a distant 195.350. After that, everything changed. The Tigers returned to nationals in 2012 riding the increased depth provided by the Courville, Jordan, Hall class, and by 2013, they managed to turn things around on their traditional weaknesses, bars and beam, to become a true four-event team that can realistically challenge for a title. That year, they returned to Super Six for the first time since the Jackson/Clare-Kearney era, finishing 5th, then stepped up that result in 2014, finishing 3rd behind the Oklahoma/Florida tie in an all-time best result for the program.
2015 Outlook
LSU has never been better. While the 2014 team has a good argument as the most talented squad LSU has ever produced, the 2015 team may have a better one. There's every reason to have the highest expectations for this team. Making Super Six may have been a big deal for LSU in 2013, but they're past that now. Simply making the final, simply finishing 4th or 5th, is no longer good enough. They're in the hunt to win, and while they still have work to do to catch up with the depth of 9.9s from Florida and Oklahoma, an LSU championship is not an unrealistic or strange notion. They can do it and should at least put up a hearty challenge. Any finish worse than 3rd would be a disappointment. Welcome to the world of expectations.
The best argument in LSU's corner is that, when counting returning scores, they have the highest total in the country. The Tigers were pretty close to Florida and Oklahoma last year, and they have lost fewer valuable routines than either team. Not having Sarie Morrison on vault and bars will be an issue, but for the most part, the core is back and many of the lineups will end up looking very similar to last season. It's not a year of reinvention for LSU. It's a year of continuing on the same track and doing exactly what they did last year, only with fewer weird 9.8s at championships. Rheagan Courville and Jessie Jordan will lead the way in the all-around once again with three-event support from Ashleigh Gnat and potentially Britney Ranzy and spot contributions from Lloimincia Hall and Jessica Savona on floor. That's already a healthy pack of reliable 9.9s (probably about ten of them) from returning standouts, but we should also expect to see impressive moments from the freshmen Erin Macadaeg and Myia Hambrick. Both can contribute on multiple events, but most importantly, they should provide options on beam to beef up the depth on one of the team's traditional weaknesses that can't (and shouldn't) be one anymore.
Vault
Returning lineup — Rheagan Courville (9.940), Jessie Jordan (9.915), Ashleigh Gnat (9.890), Britney Ranzy (9.870)
LSU has a powerhouse reputation for a reason. When they're good, vault is usually why, and the last few seasons have been no exception. The Tigers finished the regular season ranked #1 on vault in 2014, which makes it easy to say, "Yes. LSU. Vault. Next." but it's important not to take events for granted. Evidence for that comes from the last two postseasons, where LSU's vaulting has been only OK and not as strong as it needs to be. You're LSU. Why is anyone vaulting a 9.825? Pull it together.
This year, LSU will once again be among the best vaulting teams and will receive plenty of those coveted 49.500s. Still, keep an eye on the depth because this is not a hugely huge group where 9.9s are popping out of every seam. The team has a few definite standouts who can get 9.950s, but those standouts will be relied upon to deliver each week. Rheagan Courville usually lands her yurchenko full somewhere in Texas. She has the best distance in the game, coupled with clean form, so her score usually comes down solely to landing control. She'll be in it for 10s. Ashleigh Gnat is extremely powerful, which we know because her 1.5 is way too easy. She finishes that vault crazy early, so we should expect control on landings. Jessie Jordan tends to compete early in the lineup, but her full is also top class and worthy of 9.9s, which it would probably get more often if she were later in the lineup. Britney Ranzy was in the Olympic mix in 2008 because of her vaulting, and I was pleased to her finally make the lineup full-time last year. The previous year it was more, how is LSU so good at vault that they don't even need to use Britney Ranzy?
Speaking of people finally making it into the vault lineup, have we just given up on Savona vaulting for this team? She was great at it once upon a time. Oh well. In the rest of the lineup, Hall is always an option (but probably for 9.825s) and transfer Scarlett Williams can provide a y1/2 for 9.850, but we could—should?—see the freshmen Macadaeg and Hambrick round out the competing six. Both have solid form and competitive height and distance and should live up to the expectations we have for LSU's vaulting. Without Morrison and Dickson (both of whom had RQSs of 9.9+), there's a chance for some regression from last season depending on how the freshmen perform, but if Courville and Gnat are doing their thing, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.
April 16, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 4: Individual Times
Now that we've dispensed with the teams, let's take some time to enjoy the best individuals NCAA has to offer. The all-around competition doesn't get as much attention at nationals because the AA title is decided on Friday when the main focus is team qualification, but it's still always one of the most exciting parts of the event and worth at least several paragraphs of discussion.
I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.
For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.
Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825
The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.
Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750
Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.
Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725
Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.
I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.
For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.
Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825
The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.
Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750
Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.
Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725
Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.
December 27, 2013
#5 LSU Preview
LSU enters 2014 still basking in one of the all-time best years for the program in 2013 during which the Tigers spent the regular season beating perennial favorites and matching or nearly matching the scores from the top teams in the country. They reached Super Six without much fuss or worry at all and came in as a potential dark horse for the title. In fact, had they vaulted up to the potential they had shown throughout the season, they could have finished as a high as second, which would have been a complete coup for the program.
While no one will deny that vault and floor rather unsurprisingly made up a significant portion of the path to success, bars began to come into line last season with the team breaking 49.4 on the event for the first time since 2009. Progressing on weaknesses was one of the most encouraging aspects of LSU's 2013, as was the fact that they did so with significant underclassman contribution. There are a couple holes to fill on beam this year, but other than that, the team has lost little and will look for opportunities to shore up lineups and leapfrog last year's quality. A big potential leapfrogger will be freshman Ashleigh Gnat who comes in as one of the top L10 recruits in the country and can factor in the AA, including breaking into those already deep vault and floor lineups.
Judging by the team the Tigers have put together, they are fully capable or repeating last year's scores and results. They just aren't losing enough gymnasts to expect any significant regression, but it will be interesting to watch if the upward trajectory established on bars and beam continues or plateaus this season.
Vault:
It's LSU and vault. This team has more power and options than it knows what to do with. For most of the teams previewed so far, I've been judging vault on the potential to go 49.400, which lately has been the standard separating the competitive vaulting teams from the uncompetitive ones. In the case of LSU, however, we can look higher than that. This team is certainly capable of repeating as #1 on vault, and we can expect 49.5s from time to time this year.
November 29, 2013
Uneven Bars and Vault Champions Showdowns
Courtney Kupets has overcome her second place finish in the floor champions showdown to put on a near-McCullough display of dominance in the beam showdown. Can she keep it up on bars?
I didn't plan these polls out particularly well, so I'm including both bars and vault in the same post because after today will come time to start thinking about preseason rankings and the coaches poll and team previews and all of those delicious morsels.
2013 NCAA Bars Champion – Alaina Johnson (I just wrote Alabama Johnson on the first try. Ugh, me.)
2012 NCAA Bars Champion – Kat Ding (routine begins at 17:30)
I didn't plan these polls out particularly well, so I'm including both bars and vault in the same post because after today will come time to start thinking about preseason rankings and the coaches poll and team previews and all of those delicious morsels.
2013 NCAA Bars Champion – Alaina Johnson (I just wrote Alabama Johnson on the first try. Ugh, me.)
2012 NCAA Bars Champion – Kat Ding (routine begins at 17:30)
April 17, 2013
Nationals Individual Capsules – It's None about the Team
Any list of the top five NCAA gymnastics cliches must include "It's all about the team," otherwise either you're not trying hard enough or you're trying too hard to be unique. I see right through that. For now, let's spend a moment making it not about the team. I hope you can handle it.
The main event of semifinals day is always the actual qualification to Super Six, but tracking the individual all-around standings can be a fun little side story. The 2012 AA competition was rather unique in how many legitimate contenders there were, with what felt like a million at least fairly realistic title pursuers. While there are a bunch hanging around again this year, I don't see this competition as quite so inclusive. There are just a couple clear frontrunners this season, and I have broken them down (emotionally) below.
I considered previewing the event finals alongside the AA, but the event qualification is such a crapshoot that I'm holding off until we know who has advanced. I could go through all the favorites for each event, and then none of them could qualify to finals. This is especially true for vault where I can count literally thirty people who could advance to finals. As discussed last December, gymnasts will perform only one vault in event finals instead of the usual two. This will serve to eliminate the Yurchenko layout parade, but it also probably ensures that the most boring Yfull will win over vaults with more difficulty and originality. One hundred points to any gymnast that goes for difficulty (safely) even if it costs her the title.
In the all-around, Kytra Hunter won the title last year with a 39.725. I think it is going to take at least that and probably higher to win this year, so gymnasts should be evaluated on their potential to reach that level. While there are many strong AAers, there are far fewer who can realistically break into the 39.650-39.700 plateau.
Session 1:
The most dangerous competitors in the first session will be from (shock!) Florida, and defending champion Kytra Hunter is the best bet. On vault and floor, she has gone beyond being 9.950-capable to being 9.950-likely. This season, she has also improved her form and landing consistency on bars to make that event less of a weakness. Beam is still a little susceptible to wobbles, but if she hits it, she will be in the 39.7s again. Her 39.800 is the highest AA score recorded in this season. I wouldn't bet against her to repeat.
The main event of semifinals day is always the actual qualification to Super Six, but tracking the individual all-around standings can be a fun little side story. The 2012 AA competition was rather unique in how many legitimate contenders there were, with what felt like a million at least fairly realistic title pursuers. While there are a bunch hanging around again this year, I don't see this competition as quite so inclusive. There are just a couple clear frontrunners this season, and I have broken them down (emotionally) below.
I considered previewing the event finals alongside the AA, but the event qualification is such a crapshoot that I'm holding off until we know who has advanced. I could go through all the favorites for each event, and then none of them could qualify to finals. This is especially true for vault where I can count literally thirty people who could advance to finals. As discussed last December, gymnasts will perform only one vault in event finals instead of the usual two. This will serve to eliminate the Yurchenko layout parade, but it also probably ensures that the most boring Yfull will win over vaults with more difficulty and originality. One hundred points to any gymnast that goes for difficulty (safely) even if it costs her the title.
In the all-around, Kytra Hunter won the title last year with a 39.725. I think it is going to take at least that and probably higher to win this year, so gymnasts should be evaluated on their potential to reach that level. While there are many strong AAers, there are far fewer who can realistically break into the 39.650-39.700 plateau.
Session 1:
The most dangerous competitors in the first session will be from (shock!) Florida, and defending champion Kytra Hunter is the best bet. On vault and floor, she has gone beyond being 9.950-capable to being 9.950-likely. This season, she has also improved her form and landing consistency on bars to make that event less of a weakness. Beam is still a little susceptible to wobbles, but if she hits it, she will be in the 39.7s again. Her 39.800 is the highest AA score recorded in this season. I wouldn't bet against her to repeat.
December 17, 2012
#8 LSU Preview
It's been a few years since LSU was a legitimate upset threat in the SEC, and while the Tigers can't claim to challenge Florida or Alabama this season, I would not be remotely surprised to see them finish third at SECs. They were close to that accomplishment last year, and they will be oodles better this season, bolstering their strengths and doing at least a little patching up on their weaknesses. From being a complete afterthought in 2011, this is a team on the rise once again.
Like Michigan, LSU is in the enviable position of not losing much. They will miss Ashley Lee's vault and floor, but the new gymnasts will more than make up for it in terms of scoring potential.
Britney Ranzy is finally eligible to start competing again, and while it's always a bit of a question mark as to what's happening with her, we know she can hit vault and floor for 9.9s when in form. Canadian world team member in 2010 Jessica Savona missed significant time in 2011-2012 with injury, but she too is a standout on the power events who should be a late-lineup contributor. These two will support Courville and Hall to pack some serious tumbling talent into those lineups.
The perennial concern for LSU is how they will manage bars and beam, which are not nearly up to the level of vault and floor, but Randi Wyrick has the potential to be an important addition who can compete right away on those events (and on all the events, but UB and BB will be her most important routines for the team).
Vault:
Talent-wise, LSU is way better on vault than they have shown in the past year or so. This group should not be settling for low 49s. The increased depth on this event in 2013 should ensure that some of those random 9.700-9.750s that showed up too often last season won't make the lineup.
Courville and Ranzy should camp out in the 5th and 6th positions and bring in frequent 9.9s. Savona showed a DTY as an elite, and while she shouldn't do anything more than a full in NCAA, she has enough lift to make it a strong one. The early part of the lineup carries more uncertainty, but I do think that Hall, Jordan, and potentially Mathis should retain positions in the lineup if they can show that 9.875s are common (all of them have the ability). If necessary, Dickson, Morrison, and Lau are also sitting on potential 9.8s that give the team enough wiggle room to expect to go over 49.300 week in week out even if a few struggle with consistent landings.
Like Michigan, LSU is in the enviable position of not losing much. They will miss Ashley Lee's vault and floor, but the new gymnasts will more than make up for it in terms of scoring potential.
Britney Ranzy is finally eligible to start competing again, and while it's always a bit of a question mark as to what's happening with her, we know she can hit vault and floor for 9.9s when in form. Canadian world team member in 2010 Jessica Savona missed significant time in 2011-2012 with injury, but she too is a standout on the power events who should be a late-lineup contributor. These two will support Courville and Hall to pack some serious tumbling talent into those lineups.
The perennial concern for LSU is how they will manage bars and beam, which are not nearly up to the level of vault and floor, but Randi Wyrick has the potential to be an important addition who can compete right away on those events (and on all the events, but UB and BB will be her most important routines for the team).
Vault:
Talent-wise, LSU is way better on vault than they have shown in the past year or so. This group should not be settling for low 49s. The increased depth on this event in 2013 should ensure that some of those random 9.700-9.750s that showed up too often last season won't make the lineup.
Courville and Ranzy should camp out in the 5th and 6th positions and bring in frequent 9.9s. Savona showed a DTY as an elite, and while she shouldn't do anything more than a full in NCAA, she has enough lift to make it a strong one. The early part of the lineup carries more uncertainty, but I do think that Hall, Jordan, and potentially Mathis should retain positions in the lineup if they can show that 9.875s are common (all of them have the ability). If necessary, Dickson, Morrison, and Lau are also sitting on potential 9.8s that give the team enough wiggle room to expect to go over 49.300 week in week out even if a few struggle with consistent landings.
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