In week 8, Florida returned home and managed to win the high-score championship for the second time in the last three weeks with another home 198. As is often the case, floor was where things got really enthusiastic as every competitor in the rotation broke 9.900, causing a bit of an uproar as Bridgey Caquatto got a 9.975 in the anchor position, riding the scores from the bigger routines from Baker and Hunter before her.
There's sort of a traditional notion that rotation orders should culminate with the best routine (which would be Hunter's...or Baker's more and more), but Florida has been able to squeeze so many big scores out of Caquatto's routine over the last several years because of the lineup position. I don't know why more teams don't take that cue and manipulate the lineup order to their advantage. Florida will consistently score better on floor finishing with Baker, Hunter, Caquatto than they would with Caquatto, Baker, Hunter. You don't need Kytra in the anchor position because her routine is big, impressive, and famous enough that it doesn't need to be 6th to get a 10.
Sam Peszek's vault was another discussion topic, as she stuck a very strong vault and originally received a 9.925 for it, which is a normal score but was a little silly based on the scores given to the previous vaults in the lineup.
It was ultimately raised to an appropriate 9.950 after Miss Val performed one of her classic interpretive movement pieces entitled "Open Mouth, Silent Outrage, Tears of a Nation." Peszek definitely did not obey the heels-together-post-stick guideline, leaving a pretty big foot separation as she held her stick, but it reinforces the frustration that if you're going to impose stricter standards to the best vaults, you also have to impose the same strict standards to the weaker vaults, otherwise the scores end up being too similar, which happened in UCLA's vault rotation.
In other news, we're moving dangerously close to Regionals with every passing day, so for reference, here is what the Regional placements would look like if the season ended today. We have a lot of hosts this year who aren't currently in the top 18 (Cal, Ohio State, Iowa State, West Virginia), which always makes things a little more interesting.
Regional 1: [1] Oklahoma (HOST), [12] Illinois, [13] Stanford
Regional 2: [2] LSU, [11] Penn State, [14] Boise State
Regional 3: [3] Florida, [10] Georgia, [15] Oregon State
Regional 4: [4] Utah, [9] Auburn (HOST), [16] Minnesota
Regional 5: [5] Michigan, [8] UCLA, [17] Denver
Regional 6: [6] Alabama, [7] Nebraska, [18] Arkansas
Week 8 Rankings – (GymInfo)
1. Oklahoma – 197.740
Week 8: 197.875
Week 8 leaders: AA - None; VT - Capps, Dowell, Scaman 9.925; UB - Scaman 9.925; BB - Capps, Clark, Sorensen 9.925; FX - Jackson, Scaman 9.925
RQS
Road Score 1: 198.150
Road Score 2: 197.875
Road Score 3: 197.700
Road/Home Score 1: 197.850
Road/Home Score 2: 197.650
Road/Home Score 3: 197.625
After a couple weeks of normal, Oklahoma jumped back up into the high 197s for the second-highest team score of the season, and did it mostly because of an epic final rotation on beam. That's the beam rotation we've been missing the last few competitions. Things are about to get really interesting for the Sooners now. They've had a couple meets with top teams so far this season (LSU, Michigan) and have come out on top, but with Florida and home and Alabama away in the next two weeks, we'll get a great sense of where they stand in the actual title race heading right into conference championships.
Oklahoma extended the lead over LSU with the performance this weekend, getting rid of a 197.3 and spiffing up the RQS outlook to the point where there aren't really any scores to drop or worry about. It's unlikely that they'll reach a historic RQS this season, but with a 197.825 against Florida on Friday, they can eclipse their final RQS from last season with a couple weeks to spare.
2. LSU – 197.485
Week 8: 197.350
Week 8 leaders: AA - Jordan 39.575; VT - Hambrick 9.925; UB - Courville, Gnat, Jordan 9.875; BB - Jordan 9.900; FX - Jordan 9.925
RQS
Road Score 1: 197.425
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 197.350
Road/Home Score 1: 198.075
Road/Home Score 2: 197.950
Road/Home Score 3: 197.350
In spite of the score being 197.350 and relatively pedestrian compared to what we've come to expect from the top schools this season, this was a big win. If LSU needed a further statement that this team is ready to beat everybody, becoming the first team to beat Alabama at Alabama was it. It was not an ideal performance, but they delivered a very strong floor rotation when necessary, and even though the beam score was the lower rotation score on the day, that was a nailed rotation with the exception of a nervy, Kathy-Johnson-destroying routine from Macadaeg. Jessie Jordan's beam routine was the best 9.900 beam routine you'll see this year. I supposed that gets balanced out by some of the charitable bars scores for routines with clear errors.
The Tigers are home against Minnesota this weekend in their home finale, so they will not be able to challenge Oklahoma in the #1 spot even with a season high. It will be hard for LSU to move up from this #2 spot with that guaranteed-to-count 197.425 road score because Oklahoma's current low RQS score is already two-tenths higher than that.
Showing posts with label Sam Peszek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sam Peszek. Show all posts
March 2, 2015
December 26, 2014
#5 UCLA Preview
Recent History
In 2010, UCLA managed to shake off two years of consecutive heartbreaking finishes to win the national championship on the strength of Anna Li/Vanessa Zamarripa/Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs/Brittani McCullough brilliance. In the following years, UCLA remained right in the hunt, finishing in 2nd in 2011, 3rd in 2012, and an ultimately surprising 4th at home in 2013 for a team that didn't seem to be as competitive as the previous ones. Still, UCLA's trajectory has been a descent ever since that championship, getting by on fewer and fewer 9.9s each year, and the descent finally caught up to them last season when they missed Super Six for the first time since 2009 and finished a disappointing 8th after a flat performance in the semifinals.
2015 Outlook
What are we going to do with UCLA this year? I don't really know why, but whenever I start thinking too much about UCLA, I get "How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?" stuck in my head. Oh, UCLA. How do you keep a wave upon the sand? I have great affection for this team and always love watching them, but no school in NCAA gymnastics is more frustrating.
The Bruins are consistently one of the least predictable teams, both in their scores (will this week be a 197 or a 194?) and in their last-minute lineup changes that I swear are just designed to make the TV people furious and confuse Amanda Borden, which I respect. Judging by this roster, it's going to be another one of those pull-your-hair-out 194/197 seasons because so much of UCLA's potential success is dependent on the precarious health of a few stars. Sam Peszek's feet are hanging on by a sinew at this point in her career, and she will have to be rested and managed all year to make sure she has another full season of hard landings in her. Peng Peng Lee hasn't performed a competition routine in 2.5 years because of the ACL trauma. Those two, along with Danusia Francis, can be three of the very best, most exciting gymnasts in NCAA. They evoke the quality of UCLA championship teams of years past. If all three are in form at the end of the year, Super Six should be attainable if not expected, but if they're not, it's going to be hard to find a lot of 9.9s elsewhere.
At least as of right now. Factor #2 for UCLA's hopes of excellence will be the sophomore class. With Jenny Pinches spending last year working to come back from being retired, Hallie Mossett and Mikaela Gerber returning from/dealing with constant injuries, and Angi Cipra getting injured in the middle of the season, no member of that class has lived up her potential yet. There's greatness in there, there are 9.9s in there, but we haven't seen that. This class needs to arrive, especially if the Peszek/Lee/Francis trio can't be out there dominating each week.
Something that should help the Bruins in 2015 is the sheer size of this team. They have a bunch of new freshmen walking on to contribute in certain places (called vault), and the increased number of routines should alleviate some of the depth problems that have plagued them recently.
Vault
Returning lineup — Sam Peszek (9.885), Sadiqua Bynum (9.880), Hallie Mossett (9.795), Jenny Pinches (9.770)
It hasn't been good. It just hasn't. UCLA was able to get by on vault last season primarily because of strong anchor scores from Courtney and Peszek that saved the rotation, but they often were only able to save the rotation for 49.2s. The Bruins need to be better than that this year for any chance to contend, which is the major reason for this cavalcade of vaulting walk-ons. They needed vaulters, and they went out and got them. The lineup should be reinvented this season. Expect to see a lot of people whom we didn't see last postseason.
Among the group that we did see last postseason, Sam Peszek is the only one who should be guaranteed a spot in this year's lineup. Even with her my-feet-are-made-of-glass bouncy fake-stick, she should still get 9.9s. Beyond Peszek, vault was never considered a strength for Peng as an elite because she vaulted only a full, but it's an absolutely beautiful full. The more often UCLA feels comfortable putting her in this vault lineup, the better. Freshman Pua Hall's best event has always been vault, and they'll need her to be big for a 9.900 toward the end of the lineup this season as well. I also expect to see Angi Cipra return. She has a potentially excellent full but struggled to control her landings last season. Still, she was getting 9.850s sometimes for vaults with 0.100 steps (albeit at home), so if they can get her landings together, she should be a contributor.
In the collection of vault newbies, there's graduate transfer Jordan Williams from Arizona who always vaulted for 9.8s with solid distance. She's the kind of helpful and reliable mid-range option they were lacking last year. Janay Honest consistently placed well with her full in the JO ranks, and UCLA briefly posted a video of LaNiesha Jopre-Irvin getting some solid height.
That's not to say that the postseason returners other than Peszek won't factor this year. They will. Pinches in particular has the potential to be a great vaulter. She performed a DTY that was absolutely necessary for Team GB for a few years in there. People who had DTYs as elites should be making NCAA vault lineups, but that doesn't always happen (ask Jessica Savona). Sadiqua Bynum learned a y1/2 last year that had fairly high scoring potential (but could also be undercooked for 9.7s), and Hallie Mossett has recorded up to a 9.850. It remains to be seen how many 9.9s they can get out of this supporting group, but look how many vaulters I just named! That's a big depth improvement, which will make 49.4s more common and realistic even if a few options don't pan out. No teaching Alyssa Pritchett an emergency full in 11 seconds this year.
In 2010, UCLA managed to shake off two years of consecutive heartbreaking finishes to win the national championship on the strength of Anna Li/Vanessa Zamarripa/Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs/Brittani McCullough brilliance. In the following years, UCLA remained right in the hunt, finishing in 2nd in 2011, 3rd in 2012, and an ultimately surprising 4th at home in 2013 for a team that didn't seem to be as competitive as the previous ones. Still, UCLA's trajectory has been a descent ever since that championship, getting by on fewer and fewer 9.9s each year, and the descent finally caught up to them last season when they missed Super Six for the first time since 2009 and finished a disappointing 8th after a flat performance in the semifinals.
2015 Outlook
What are we going to do with UCLA this year? I don't really know why, but whenever I start thinking too much about UCLA, I get "How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?" stuck in my head. Oh, UCLA. How do you keep a wave upon the sand? I have great affection for this team and always love watching them, but no school in NCAA gymnastics is more frustrating.
The Bruins are consistently one of the least predictable teams, both in their scores (will this week be a 197 or a 194?) and in their last-minute lineup changes that I swear are just designed to make the TV people furious and confuse Amanda Borden, which I respect. Judging by this roster, it's going to be another one of those pull-your-hair-out 194/197 seasons because so much of UCLA's potential success is dependent on the precarious health of a few stars. Sam Peszek's feet are hanging on by a sinew at this point in her career, and she will have to be rested and managed all year to make sure she has another full season of hard landings in her. Peng Peng Lee hasn't performed a competition routine in 2.5 years because of the ACL trauma. Those two, along with Danusia Francis, can be three of the very best, most exciting gymnasts in NCAA. They evoke the quality of UCLA championship teams of years past. If all three are in form at the end of the year, Super Six should be attainable if not expected, but if they're not, it's going to be hard to find a lot of 9.9s elsewhere.
At least as of right now. Factor #2 for UCLA's hopes of excellence will be the sophomore class. With Jenny Pinches spending last year working to come back from being retired, Hallie Mossett and Mikaela Gerber returning from/dealing with constant injuries, and Angi Cipra getting injured in the middle of the season, no member of that class has lived up her potential yet. There's greatness in there, there are 9.9s in there, but we haven't seen that. This class needs to arrive, especially if the Peszek/Lee/Francis trio can't be out there dominating each week.
Something that should help the Bruins in 2015 is the sheer size of this team. They have a bunch of new freshmen walking on to contribute in certain places (called vault), and the increased number of routines should alleviate some of the depth problems that have plagued them recently.
Vault
Returning lineup — Sam Peszek (9.885), Sadiqua Bynum (9.880), Hallie Mossett (9.795), Jenny Pinches (9.770)
It hasn't been good. It just hasn't. UCLA was able to get by on vault last season primarily because of strong anchor scores from Courtney and Peszek that saved the rotation, but they often were only able to save the rotation for 49.2s. The Bruins need to be better than that this year for any chance to contend, which is the major reason for this cavalcade of vaulting walk-ons. They needed vaulters, and they went out and got them. The lineup should be reinvented this season. Expect to see a lot of people whom we didn't see last postseason.
Among the group that we did see last postseason, Sam Peszek is the only one who should be guaranteed a spot in this year's lineup. Even with her my-feet-are-made-of-glass bouncy fake-stick, she should still get 9.9s. Beyond Peszek, vault was never considered a strength for Peng as an elite because she vaulted only a full, but it's an absolutely beautiful full. The more often UCLA feels comfortable putting her in this vault lineup, the better. Freshman Pua Hall's best event has always been vault, and they'll need her to be big for a 9.900 toward the end of the lineup this season as well. I also expect to see Angi Cipra return. She has a potentially excellent full but struggled to control her landings last season. Still, she was getting 9.850s sometimes for vaults with 0.100 steps (albeit at home), so if they can get her landings together, she should be a contributor.
In the collection of vault newbies, there's graduate transfer Jordan Williams from Arizona who always vaulted for 9.8s with solid distance. She's the kind of helpful and reliable mid-range option they were lacking last year. Janay Honest consistently placed well with her full in the JO ranks, and UCLA briefly posted a video of LaNiesha Jopre-Irvin getting some solid height.
That's not to say that the postseason returners other than Peszek won't factor this year. They will. Pinches in particular has the potential to be a great vaulter. She performed a DTY that was absolutely necessary for Team GB for a few years in there. People who had DTYs as elites should be making NCAA vault lineups, but that doesn't always happen (ask Jessica Savona). Sadiqua Bynum learned a y1/2 last year that had fairly high scoring potential (but could also be undercooked for 9.7s), and Hallie Mossett has recorded up to a 9.850. It remains to be seen how many 9.9s they can get out of this supporting group, but look how many vaulters I just named! That's a big depth improvement, which will make 49.4s more common and realistic even if a few options don't pan out. No teaching Alyssa Pritchett an emergency full in 11 seconds this year.
April 16, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 4: Individual Times
Now that we've dispensed with the teams, let's take some time to enjoy the best individuals NCAA has to offer. The all-around competition doesn't get as much attention at nationals because the AA title is decided on Friday when the main focus is team qualification, but it's still always one of the most exciting parts of the event and worth at least several paragraphs of discussion.
I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.
For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.
Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825
The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.
Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750
Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.
Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725
Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.
I'll keep things limited to the all-around because trying to preview or predict event finals is a fool's errand. Semifinal days always has at least 65 upsets of event favorites who take a step on their dismounts and receive 9.900s when they needed 9.925s to make the top four from their session. I could wax on about Kytra Hunter and Lloimincia Hall on floor all I wanted, and then neither would make floor finals (see: last season). Especially after all the notoriety Hall's routine has received since regionals, you know she's not making floor finals. That's the way the world works. And then everyone will be all deflated and complain-y, which is appropriate for Nationals Hangover Day. Really, the only thing I'm hoping on the individual events is that four people in each semifinal score a 9.925+ on vault so that we're not stuck with 13 people all tied at 9.900 in fourth place and all qualifying to an endless slog of a vault final with 16 million Yfulls.
For the AA crown, we have a number of possible contenders who have led their teams in the all-around this season, but when we start to consider what it will take to win (and given the scoring this season, a 39.700 to win the title is a realistic possibility) that field narrows dramatically. Let's break down who's still in it.
Bridget Sloan - Florida
RQS: 39.720
High: 39.825
The defending champion and #1 all-arounder in the country must be considered the favorite to win the title once again. She is among the only gymnasts who has not only proven capable of getting a 9.950 on every event but who does it regularly, made more impressive by the fact that she doesn't anchor any lineups. We expect 9.950s from her on all the events, and anything less than a 9.900 for any routine she performs is an off day. If she recovers from her mental safari on beam at regionals, she'll be tough to beat.
Rheagan Courville - LSU
RQS: 39.620
High: 39.750
Courville is kind of the Prince Harry of the SEC all-around royal family. I don't mean that she's playing strip billiards in Las Vegas (but if she is, you know, have fun). I mean that she's the second heir to the throne, the one who would be queen if not for Bridget Sloan. She has the skill set to get the same scores as Sloan, and should be expected to get 9.950s on vault and floor, but bars occasionally drops down to 9.850, so watch that. Also, watch the arabian since one wobble on a skill like that will be enough to take anyone out of it.
Katherine Grable - Arkansas
RQS: 39.610
High: 39.725
Our Lady of Perpetual Grable is among the fan favorites for the AA title, with her originality on both vault (handspring pike half) and floor (double arabian half out), tight form, sparky gymnastics, and general excellence. She's another who should be scoring a 9.950 on vault and floor, but she may fall an inch back because of bars, which has some occasional handstanditis to bring it down into the 9.8s. The biggest challenge for Grable, however, will be competing without her team. It's a completely different environment that she has never experienced as an NCAA gymnast, and that's just enough of an obstacle to consider her not quite as likely to win as her SEC comrades in spite of her equal talent level.
December 28, 2013
#4 UCLA Preview
UCLA had to be disappointed with finishing 4th at a home Championship last year, especially when the preseason outlook was so promising, but considering the injury trials presented to them throughout the season, managing a 4th place finish was a solid result. Without Peszek, without Lee, without Larson, the Bruins got as much as they could from the lineup they had, squeezing out every last drop of depth they could muster. They just didn't have enough big routines to contend for a win.
Expect the 2014 team to be nearly unrecognizable from the group we saw last season. Whereas for most teams we're talking about filling one or two holes per event, UCLA has to reconstruct a full half of its lineup. Challengingly, it's not just about finding routines that can work in competition, it's about finding the 9.9s to fill the colossal absence of Vanessa Zamarripa. That's why Sam Peszek's return is so vital. She's the one who can step into those lineup spots and get the 9.9s on every event to help this team keep pace with last season. Especially without the Peng, it will fall to Peszek to be the star every week.
UCLA is bringing in a hearty freshman class with Jennifer Pinches, Hallie Mossett, Angi Cipra, and Mikaela Gerber, but because there are so many openings in these lineups and because UCLA is perpetually recovering from sixty-five injuries, don't expect the depth problems we saw last year on events like vault to dissipate. It's going to be one of those UCLA journey seasons again, with a lot of life lessons, equal parts beautiful and frustrating.
Vault:
Vault was always going to be strange this year without Zamarripa. She is the team's identity on this event, so vault rotations are going to feel incomplete or incorrect for a while without her Yurchenko full because we are so used to that one spectacular piece of gymnastics finishing off the rotation and, especially last year, saving an adequate score. From the 2013 lineup, the Bruins are returning Olivia Courtney, a tube of chapstick, and a piece of damp construction paper. There's little to go on. This is where the depth and injury concerns were most apparent last season, and the team may not exactly be flush with vault choices again in 2014. For other teams, we're talking about 8 and 9 solid options and scores in the 49.4s and 49.5s, but for UCLA it's a little bit of, who's on this team now? And does she vault?
Expect the 2014 team to be nearly unrecognizable from the group we saw last season. Whereas for most teams we're talking about filling one or two holes per event, UCLA has to reconstruct a full half of its lineup. Challengingly, it's not just about finding routines that can work in competition, it's about finding the 9.9s to fill the colossal absence of Vanessa Zamarripa. That's why Sam Peszek's return is so vital. She's the one who can step into those lineup spots and get the 9.9s on every event to help this team keep pace with last season. Especially without the Peng, it will fall to Peszek to be the star every week.
UCLA is bringing in a hearty freshman class with Jennifer Pinches, Hallie Mossett, Angi Cipra, and Mikaela Gerber, but because there are so many openings in these lineups and because UCLA is perpetually recovering from sixty-five injuries, don't expect the depth problems we saw last year on events like vault to dissipate. It's going to be one of those UCLA journey seasons again, with a lot of life lessons, equal parts beautiful and frustrating.
Vault:
Vault was always going to be strange this year without Zamarripa. She is the team's identity on this event, so vault rotations are going to feel incomplete or incorrect for a while without her Yurchenko full because we are so used to that one spectacular piece of gymnastics finishing off the rotation and, especially last year, saving an adequate score. From the 2013 lineup, the Bruins are returning Olivia Courtney, a tube of chapstick, and a piece of damp construction paper. There's little to go on. This is where the depth and injury concerns were most apparent last season, and the team may not exactly be flush with vault choices again in 2014. For other teams, we're talking about 8 and 9 solid options and scores in the 49.4s and 49.5s, but for UCLA it's a little bit of, who's on this team now? And does she vault?
November 27, 2013
Balance Beam Champions Showdown
The floor workers have had their turn, and Brittani McCullough is pretty much crushing the competition with 44% of the vote to 22% for Kupets. Now, let's allow the best beamers of the last five years to have their say.
Who is your champion of champions for beam?
2013 NCAA Beam Champion – Bridget Sloan
2012 NCAA Beam Champion – Geralen Stack-Eaton
(It should be embedded at the right time, but if it's not there, Geralen's routine begins at 1:01:27)
Who is your champion of champions for beam?
2013 NCAA Beam Champion – Bridget Sloan
2012 NCAA Beam Champion – Geralen Stack-Eaton
(It should be embedded at the right time, but if it's not there, Geralen's routine begins at 1:01:27)
December 17, 2012
The Peszek and Nowak Effects
Far too fresh on the heels of Kayla Nowak's harrowing, season-ending back injury comes the news that Sam Peszek has torn her Achilles tendon and will miss the 2013 season. We always start the preseason with such optimism for the season ahead, and then it gets chipped away with injuries like these.
Unfortunately for the Sooners, they are now accustomed to getting by without Kayla Nowak, having lost her to injury at the end of last season as well. Nowak is capable of being a solid AAer who goes over 9.800 on each event, but she will be particularly missed on bars and floor, where she would be a guarantee for the late lineup. On floor, Oklahoma has been fighting to prove that it is more than just a 9.850 team, and Nowak was a major part of that argument because her routine could regularly warrant a higher score. I have no doubt that Oklahoma can find the routines necessary, but the trend of injuries over the last couple of seasons has slowed the Sooners' progress toward extracting themselves from that second tier of teams.
Speaking of a trend of injuries, UCLA. Sam Peszek makes the fourth member of this team to tear her Achilles in the last couple of seasons, following Zamarripa, Wong, and McDonald. Like Oklahoma, UCLA will not completely fall apart because of this loss, but it will be significant not just because Peszek is a high-scoring AAer but because she brings a solidity that none of the other stars of this team can manage at the moment. While the team will potentially lose .050-.075 in scoring potential on each event without Peszek, it is beam where the loss will be the most painful. Zamarripa and Larson at the end of this lineup don't exactly inspire the confidence of 6 for 6 every week, and they are the strongest workers. Overall, expect to see a lot more of Syd Sawa than we otherwise would have.
Unfortunately for the Sooners, they are now accustomed to getting by without Kayla Nowak, having lost her to injury at the end of last season as well. Nowak is capable of being a solid AAer who goes over 9.800 on each event, but she will be particularly missed on bars and floor, where she would be a guarantee for the late lineup. On floor, Oklahoma has been fighting to prove that it is more than just a 9.850 team, and Nowak was a major part of that argument because her routine could regularly warrant a higher score. I have no doubt that Oklahoma can find the routines necessary, but the trend of injuries over the last couple of seasons has slowed the Sooners' progress toward extracting themselves from that second tier of teams.
Speaking of a trend of injuries, UCLA. Sam Peszek makes the fourth member of this team to tear her Achilles in the last couple of seasons, following Zamarripa, Wong, and McDonald. Like Oklahoma, UCLA will not completely fall apart because of this loss, but it will be significant not just because Peszek is a high-scoring AAer but because she brings a solidity that none of the other stars of this team can manage at the moment. While the team will potentially lose .050-.075 in scoring potential on each event without Peszek, it is beam where the loss will be the most painful. Zamarripa and Larson at the end of this lineup don't exactly inspire the confidence of 6 for 6 every week, and they are the strongest workers. Overall, expect to see a lot more of Syd Sawa than we otherwise would have.
December 29, 2011
Champions Battle: Balance Beam
2011 Beam Champion - Sam Peszek
2010 Beam Champion - Susan Jackson
2007 Beam Champion - Ashley Postell
Who wins this round?
2010 Beam Champion - Susan Jackson
2009 Beam Champion - Courtney Kupets
2008 Beam Champion - Grace Taylor
2007 Beam Champion - Ashley Postell
Who wins this round?
December 23, 2011
#1 UCLA Preview
While it was certainly unusual to see defending champion Alabama ranked #2 in the preseason poll, it's hard to argue that a team with UCLA's talent level should be anywhere but #1 in 2012. In 2011, they were not a championship-caliber team. Without Vanessa Zamarripa or Sam Peszek for half the season, this depleted group had to rely on routines from Brittani McCullough and Tauny Frattone on their weaker events where they ideally should not have had to compete. That UCLA even managed to place second is a testament to this team perfecting the art of maximizing its potential. Without a significant chunk of star power, UCLA had to get 9.9 routines from unexpected places, like the two that Sydney Sawa put up in Super Six. What makes UCLA more dangerous in 2012 is that they will also have that deep stable of stars from which they can draw those top scores.
The most exciting change for UCLA this year will be the return of Vanessa Zamarripa who, at her best, churns out 39.600 performances like it's nothing. Coming off an Achilles tear, it would be foolhardy to assume that Zamarripa will be back to that level immediately. As we learned from Ask the Bruins, she is not back on floor yet. This is probably the event where she is least necessary to the team, so it's not a major blow if she's unavailable at the beginning of the season. They will certainly need her come postseason, but Zamarripa is not as important to the floor lineup as Hopfner-Hibbs, Peszek, or Larson. UCLA will need her abilities more so on vault and bars, where she appears to be on track.
Zamarripa doesn't run away with the "most exciting change" category because UCLA is also debuting freshman Mattie Larson. Larson has become one of the more beloved elites of recent years because she covers both the "artistry" narrative and the "we love you even though you fell at Worlds" narrative. Combine those with her genuinely elegant execution, and the judges will be itching to give her big scores on each event. Aside from staying healthy (she's an AOGC elite, so knock on Sequoias), Larson's biggest job in 2012 will be to undergo a successful headcase-ectomy. Over the years, she never showed her best gymnastics on international assignment and very publicly lost her mind at team finals in 2010. When thinking about UCLA's best possible lineups, Larson has an asterisk next to her name because she will have to develop and prove the ability to hit under pressure in a team environment, otherwise all the talent in the world is irrelevant.
The other scholarship athletes for UCLA this year are Cassie Whitcomb and Dana McDonald. McDonald is a clean vault and floor specialist. She will probably see some competition time early in the season, but it's hard to imagine her making March and April lineups unless she has to step in because of injury. As for Whitcomb, no surprise, she's already dealing with injury. With the depth on this team, there's no need for her to be contending in the all-around, and she wouldn't make all the lineups, anyway. Her biggest asset will be her bar routine, where she stood out as an elite with her toe point and good CGA flat hips.
While beam was the most discussed weakness for UCLA last season (and we'll get there in a minute), if you were to watch a meet without looking at the scores, you would say that bars was just as much of a problem. Though the award for Most Overscored Lineup is always a very tough category, with all the top teams getting some degree of overscoring at home, I would give the 2011 title to UCLA on bars. We have to give some credit to them for once again maximizing potential and sticking landings at the end of the season, but this lineup was not particularly strong and often got charitable scoring. This was never more clear than when Hopfner-Hibbs performed her straddled double layout dismount with a lunge forward and still got a 9.9 from one judge. On a championship team, Peszek and Hopfner-Hibbs are early-lineup workers at best on bars, not anchors. This will have to be fixed in 2012, which is why Zamarripa, Whitcomb, and Monique De La Torre will be so important. Ideally, Lichelle Wong would also make the lineup, but she is still training that double front 1/2 dismount that they scrapped last season because she couldn't compete it without significant deduction, so she'll have to work that out to make the top six. Wong somehow always seems to find a way to not be in lineups she should be in.
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