It begins. Just one week until the best day of the college gymnastics year. It finally starts to matter! Over the next few days, I'll be going through each of the regionals and breaking down the main things to watch for in each competition as we bite our fingernails and giggle like unhinged death-row inmates about who is going to advance to nationals. I'll begin with the top-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and their home regional, which will begin at 5:00 ET/2:00 PT on Saturday.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before bars)
[13] Penn State (beam)
[22] Southern Utah (bye before floor)
[27] Missouri (vault)
[34] NC State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Lindenwood (Valeri Ingui - AA; Kierstin Sokolowski - AA; Courtney Heise - bars), Arizona State (Taylor Allex - AA; Natasha Sundby - floor), Illinois-Chicago (Gabrielle May - AA), SEMO (Ashley Thomas - AA), Northern Illinois (Amanda Stepp - vault), and Illinois State (Sami King - beam).
Oklahoma
It's a significant milestone for Oklahoma to come in as the #1 seed, breaking Florida's four-year streak of being the #1 overall regionals seed, but I'm not going to spend too much time on Oklahoma right now. There will be plenty of opportunity for that once the nationals previews roll around because if Oklahoma were to be eliminated at this point, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever at regionals. The #1 team, undefeated, competing at home? Come on. They would have to count at least a couple falls. Probably 20.
As often happens at regionals, the best teams get sort of overlooked on the day, especially if a rotation and a half goes by and they're already ahead by a million tenths and clearly going to win, which I pretty much expect to happen here. The focus tends to turn to the real battles to make nationals, but there are still a couple areas in Oklahoma's performances to keep half an eye on with nationals in mind, particularly cleaning up some of those bars handstands from last weekend and continuing to hone those vault landings that I've been harping on lately. Unlike Oklahoma teams of a few years ago, this team should not be in a position to give up any ground to any other team on vault (they were at home and got a 49.4 last weekend, while LSU and Florida were away getting 49.5 and 49.6). To keep pace on vault this year, it's not about stepping for 9.900. It's about having multiple 9.950s. Because you better believe Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry can not-stick for 9.950. That's the pace that's being set that every other team has to match.
Oregon State and Penn State
But let's get to the real stuff. This regional is about Oregon State and Penn State in what should be one of the most entertaining showdowns next Saturday. I expect it to go back and forth all afternoon. These two teams were in the exact same position last year, coming into regionals as the #12 and #13 teams and fighting it out for the second spot, with Penn State ultimately coming out on top by two tenths, making it to nationals for just the second time in the last decade. That also marked the second-straight year that Oregon State failed to make nationals, and is exactly what makes regionals so important for the Beavs this year. They have to make it. Three years of missing nationals? Not acceptable for a team that really should be part of the top tier but is on the verge of losing that status. It was only a few years ago (in 2011) that Oregon State finished the regular season as the #3 team in the country, seemed an easy bet to make Super Six, and was even some people's cool, alternative sleeper pick to win. That's gone now.
Showing posts with label NC State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NC State. Show all posts
March 28, 2015
April 3, 2014
Athens, GA Regional Preview
Now here we are old friends, the final regional. It feels like a long road already, and the meets haven't started yet. Georgia will host a regional for the second time in the last four years, and once again it's the 6/7/18 group (and the third time in four years that Georgia has been in the 6/7/18 regional). The Gym Dogs will welcome Michigan to town to engage in a possible head-to-head nationals preview in one of the earlier starts (4 ET/1 PT).
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Georgia (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (bye before floor)
[18] Central Michigan (vault)
[22] Ohio State (floor)
[28] NC State (bars)
[32] Rutgers (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from West Virginia (Hope Sloanhoffer, Nicolette Swoboda, Alexa Goldberg - bars, Beth Deal - beam), North Carolina (Haley Watts), William & Mary (Brittany Stover), and George Washington (Kayla Carto, Chelsea Raineri - vault, floor).
The Favorites
Of all the regionals, I would deem this the least likely to see an upset, which means it will definitely happen. Georgia and Michigan have performed several steps above the other teams in this competition all year, and the season averages for both teams are higher than the season highs for any of the other schools competing. It would take a confluence of disaster from one end and unexpected greatness from the other to make this one interesting as an upset affair.
But that doesn't mean it isn't interesting. If everything goes to form, we can expect Georgia and Michigan to advance from this competition and meet again in two weeks with a spot in Super Six on the line, so the performances will have significant implications heading into nationals. And it's too close to call right now as to which team is better. Georgia has been more consistent this season and is competing at home, but Michigan has the higher peak score and put in a stronger performance at conference championships. If they're both hitting, they should be fighting it out right to the final rotation.
Unfortunately, injuries are going to be a talking point for both teams. Georgia had to sit Brittany Rogers on vault and floor at SECs after an ankle injury (edit: and she'll miss those events at regionals as well - thanks for the confirmation), and reaching their highest scoring potential requires her at 100% in the AA. While her injury allowed for the emergence of Lauren Johnson on vault with her sudden 9.975 (making lineup order a bit more challenging), they're not as strong without Rogers' 1.5 on an event where they need to squeeze out as much of an advantage as possible. Floor, however, may be Rogers' most important routine this season because of her difficulty and because the Gym Dogs don't have the depth without her. Having to drop Broussard's 9.4 made it impossible for them to keep pace at SECs because they were counting two other 9.7s. In this meet, floor is already an event where Michigan looks to have a solid edge, so Georgia can't count those same 9.7s or they'll be giving up too many tenths to the Wolverines.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Georgia (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (bye before floor)
[18] Central Michigan (vault)
[22] Ohio State (floor)
[28] NC State (bars)
[32] Rutgers (beam)
The individuals in this regional are from West Virginia (Hope Sloanhoffer, Nicolette Swoboda, Alexa Goldberg - bars, Beth Deal - beam), North Carolina (Haley Watts), William & Mary (Brittany Stover), and George Washington (Kayla Carto, Chelsea Raineri - vault, floor).
The Favorites
Of all the regionals, I would deem this the least likely to see an upset, which means it will definitely happen. Georgia and Michigan have performed several steps above the other teams in this competition all year, and the season averages for both teams are higher than the season highs for any of the other schools competing. It would take a confluence of disaster from one end and unexpected greatness from the other to make this one interesting as an upset affair.
But that doesn't mean it isn't interesting. If everything goes to form, we can expect Georgia and Michigan to advance from this competition and meet again in two weeks with a spot in Super Six on the line, so the performances will have significant implications heading into nationals. And it's too close to call right now as to which team is better. Georgia has been more consistent this season and is competing at home, but Michigan has the higher peak score and put in a stronger performance at conference championships. If they're both hitting, they should be fighting it out right to the final rotation.
Unfortunately, injuries are going to be a talking point for both teams. Georgia had to sit Brittany Rogers on vault and floor at SECs after an ankle injury (edit: and she'll miss those events at regionals as well - thanks for the confirmation), and reaching their highest scoring potential requires her at 100% in the AA. While her injury allowed for the emergence of Lauren Johnson on vault with her sudden 9.975 (making lineup order a bit more challenging), they're not as strong without Rogers' 1.5 on an event where they need to squeeze out as much of an advantage as possible. Floor, however, may be Rogers' most important routine this season because of her difficulty and because the Gym Dogs don't have the depth without her. Having to drop Broussard's 9.4 made it impossible for them to keep pace at SECs because they were counting two other 9.7s. In this meet, floor is already an event where Michigan looks to have a solid edge, so Georgia can't count those same 9.7s or they'll be giving up too many tenths to the Wolverines.
April 5, 2013
Columbus Regional Preview
We're nearly there. During a frantic five-hour period tomorrow, everything we need to know about nationals will be decided. I'll be there for every moment, of course, and since it will be impossible to keep and eye on everything at the same time, I hope you all will help keep everyone updated. One final regional to preview before the chatter ends and things start getting good.
Competing teams (starting event):
[6] UCLA (vault)
[7] LSU (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (bye before floor)
[20] Ohio State (floor)
[24] Central Michigan (bars)
[31] NC State (beam)
The Favorites
By all logic, this should be a straightforward meet in which UCLA and LSU advance to nationals as the indisputably strongest teams, but of all the regionals, I feel the least confident about how this one will play out. It smells dangerous.
UCLA enters as the higher seed, but it could very well go either way between the two. If they both hit to capability, the meet will come down to minor details, but if that's the case, it won't matter because they will both be swimming through to the next round. This year's Bruins are rather more well-rounded than teams of recent years, while LSU is a terror on vault and floor and quite a degree more nerve-wracking and 9.7ish on bars and beam. In that way, this is similar to the Minnesota/Auburn contest in Gainesville but on a larger scale. I trust UCLA more to hit (it's an odd sentence, I know), but LSU will have the bigger rotations.
Competing teams (starting event):
[6] UCLA (vault)
[7] LSU (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (bye before floor)
[20] Ohio State (floor)
[24] Central Michigan (bars)
[31] NC State (beam)
The Favorites
By all logic, this should be a straightforward meet in which UCLA and LSU advance to nationals as the indisputably strongest teams, but of all the regionals, I feel the least confident about how this one will play out. It smells dangerous.
UCLA enters as the higher seed, but it could very well go either way between the two. If they both hit to capability, the meet will come down to minor details, but if that's the case, it won't matter because they will both be swimming through to the next round. This year's Bruins are rather more well-rounded than teams of recent years, while LSU is a terror on vault and floor and quite a degree more nerve-wracking and 9.7ish on bars and beam. In that way, this is similar to the Minnesota/Auburn contest in Gainesville but on a larger scale. I trust UCLA more to hit (it's an odd sentence, I know), but LSU will have the bigger rotations.
April 2, 2012
Raleigh Regional Preview
Over the next few days, I'll be taking several moments to preview the Regional Championships, providing analysis and predictions as to what we might see come Saturday, my favorite day in the NCAA calendar. The Raleigh Regional boasts top seed Florida and will be the first to start on Saturday (4 ET / 1 PT), so it seems a logical place to begin. Our competitors will be [1] Florida, [12] Ohio State, [13] Penn State, [20] NC State, [26] Kent State, and [31] North Carolina.
The Favorite:
The Florida Gators once again find themselves in the 1/12/13 Regional, highlighting how nonsensical the seeding process is. If the goal is to finish in the top two at each Regional, why does the top-ranked team in the nation get the most difficult #3 seed? But this issue has been well covered, so I'll stop there.
Last year, Florida barely eked its way into Nationals after imploding on beam when Boise State just missed the necessary score in the last rotation, but I don't expect to see a repeat of those nail-biting conditions this year. While the Gators of 2012 are a bit less polished, they are also much less likely to incur a fall than were the Gators of 2011, which makes all the difference for qualifying. Lack of polish never prevented a top team from advancing. That's the job of falls. As we saw at SECs, Florida can be a little off and still go into the low 197s, which should certainly be enough to win the group. I'm going to give this one to Florida in a landslide.
However, there are still issues we need to keep an eye on as we evaluate the Gators' chances heading to Nationals. At SECs, the tumbling was uncontrolled and inexact, and there needs to be much more sticking across all the events. As Suzanne rightly pointed out on the SEC broadcast, Florida's delayed training schedule has put them behind some of the other teams in terms of focusing on sticking. This is not necessarily a problem, in fact it's probably a good thing, but it could become a problem if they haven't made any progress on this front by Regionals.
Another concern of mine, as I've mentioned before, is the lineups. Florida is a very deep team on paper, but they have a self-imposed shallowness because of sticking to the same lineups. Who would go in on beam if there is an injury? What's the vault situation? There's Spicer in the first position and a slightly injured Ellis up second (or Shisler if Ellis can't go), so there will likely be little progress above 9.800 in those spots. Now, as we saw at SECs, the final four for Florida can still make it a big rotation, but there is little margin in that lineup. If one of the last four takes a big landing deduction, they won't be able to keep pace. At Nationals, Florida needs to be top 3 on vault. But this does go to show that Florida's problems are relatively minor at this point, and having to count a couple 9.775s will not be a problem for another three weeks.
More interesting than the expected Florida romp, though, will be the fight for the second spot.
The Favorite:
The Florida Gators once again find themselves in the 1/12/13 Regional, highlighting how nonsensical the seeding process is. If the goal is to finish in the top two at each Regional, why does the top-ranked team in the nation get the most difficult #3 seed? But this issue has been well covered, so I'll stop there.
Last year, Florida barely eked its way into Nationals after imploding on beam when Boise State just missed the necessary score in the last rotation, but I don't expect to see a repeat of those nail-biting conditions this year. While the Gators of 2012 are a bit less polished, they are also much less likely to incur a fall than were the Gators of 2011, which makes all the difference for qualifying. Lack of polish never prevented a top team from advancing. That's the job of falls. As we saw at SECs, Florida can be a little off and still go into the low 197s, which should certainly be enough to win the group. I'm going to give this one to Florida in a landslide.
However, there are still issues we need to keep an eye on as we evaluate the Gators' chances heading to Nationals. At SECs, the tumbling was uncontrolled and inexact, and there needs to be much more sticking across all the events. As Suzanne rightly pointed out on the SEC broadcast, Florida's delayed training schedule has put them behind some of the other teams in terms of focusing on sticking. This is not necessarily a problem, in fact it's probably a good thing, but it could become a problem if they haven't made any progress on this front by Regionals.
Another concern of mine, as I've mentioned before, is the lineups. Florida is a very deep team on paper, but they have a self-imposed shallowness because of sticking to the same lineups. Who would go in on beam if there is an injury? What's the vault situation? There's Spicer in the first position and a slightly injured Ellis up second (or Shisler if Ellis can't go), so there will likely be little progress above 9.800 in those spots. Now, as we saw at SECs, the final four for Florida can still make it a big rotation, but there is little margin in that lineup. If one of the last four takes a big landing deduction, they won't be able to keep pace. At Nationals, Florida needs to be top 3 on vault. But this does go to show that Florida's problems are relatively minor at this point, and having to count a couple 9.775s will not be a problem for another three weeks.
More interesting than the expected Florida romp, though, will be the fight for the second spot.
March 11, 2012
Senior Sunday – Oklahoma @ UCLA Live Blog
2:30 ET / 11:30 PT – NC State @ Georgia
5:00 ET / 2:00 PT – Oklahoma @ UCLA
It's Senior Day for the gymnasts from Georgia and UCLA, so a little nostalgic look at highlights for these seniors before we get to the day's action. Along with Alabama, these teams are going to have the biggest shoes to fill next year.
Written off by everyone (ahem . . . me) and having an important season for the Bruins.
Comments on scores and routines after the jump when the action begins.
5:00 ET / 2:00 PT – Oklahoma @ UCLA
It's Senior Day for the gymnasts from Georgia and UCLA, so a little nostalgic look at highlights for these seniors before we get to the day's action. Along with Alabama, these teams are going to have the biggest shoes to fill next year.
Probably not even the best beam she's done at UCLA, but she'll always have that 10. Through all the UCLA beam troubles, she's been the unifying force. EHH fixes things.
Our dynamic duo on bars for Georgia. That's how you land. Never a moment's doubt. They're the last Suzanne gymnasts on this Georgia team, and to me, they are this Georgia team.
The most graceful gymnast UCLA has had in a number of years, carrying on her Tousek legacy. Imagine how many big scores she would have had if she hadn't been leading off the last two seasons.
Tauny Frattone. Coming alive.
The best vault and floor she's ever done have come in her senior season. No easy feat.
The walk-on with the bad legs who gets a 9.925 on floor.
Written off by everyone (ahem . . . me) and having an important season for the Bruins.
January 6, 2012
Live Blog - Florida @ NC State
Live Video
It begins. Because of the influx of freshman talent across the top teams, I'm much more excited for this season than I was for last season. After this weekend's meets, I'll probably be jaded and cynical about everyone again, but let's just enjoy this moment while we can.
All eyes are on Rhonda this year after the disaster of last postseason, and she knows it. There is more pressure on Florida than any other team, including defending champion Alabama. The question coming from all corners is, regardless of talent level, can Rhonda actually coach a team to a championship? She hasn't proven it yet, and in 2011 with her most talented team ever, she didn't get close. On the positive side, she is willing to make significant changes to her coaching strategy, and tonight we will begin to see (and evaluate) how those changes are working.
I expect to see more lineup experimentation from Florida this season than we saw last year. That's necessitated by having such a deep, talented team and the need to explore all options so that many gymnasts are comfortable competing by championship season. I hope Wang and Spicer get some opportunities tonight so we can begin to evaluate how useful they will be to the team. It will also be interesting to see how much the team is relying on Hunter this early and how far along Caquatto is.
(Live commentary after the jump)
It begins. Because of the influx of freshman talent across the top teams, I'm much more excited for this season than I was for last season. After this weekend's meets, I'll probably be jaded and cynical about everyone again, but let's just enjoy this moment while we can.
All eyes are on Rhonda this year after the disaster of last postseason, and she knows it. There is more pressure on Florida than any other team, including defending champion Alabama. The question coming from all corners is, regardless of talent level, can Rhonda actually coach a team to a championship? She hasn't proven it yet, and in 2011 with her most talented team ever, she didn't get close. On the positive side, she is willing to make significant changes to her coaching strategy, and tonight we will begin to see (and evaluate) how those changes are working.
I expect to see more lineup experimentation from Florida this season than we saw last year. That's necessitated by having such a deep, talented team and the need to explore all options so that many gymnasts are comfortable competing by championship season. I hope Wang and Spicer get some opportunities tonight so we can begin to evaluate how useful they will be to the team. It will also be interesting to see how much the team is relying on Hunter this early and how far along Caquatto is.
(Live commentary after the jump)
January 2, 2012
Get. Ready.
As always, the start of the season has snuck up on us, and it's now only four days away. Here's a look at what's happening this weekend so you can plan accordingly:
- Friday: The season begins, and I will be live blogging the broadcast of Florida @ NC State at 7 ET / 4 PT. Special attention will be paid to Florida's preparation schedule. I don't need to see a 197 this week. I'll also be following the scores of Denver @ Georgia and making completely unfounded comments about Shayla's performance level.
- Saturday: Oklahoma has a quad meet away that they should win easily. Note who is making lineups right now and how they are attempting to compensate for Natasha Kelley.
- Sunday: I'll be back to live blog Utah @ UCLA at 5 ET / 2 PT. This should be the closest and most interesting meet of the weekend. How are Mattie and Vanessa coming along? Does Utah have enough star performances to contend? Is Tiffany Hyland going to get all the water bottles in time?
Meets of note:
Friday – 1/6/12
6:30 ET / 3:30 PT – Washington @ Michigan State
7:00 ET / 4:00 PT – Florida @ NC State
7:30 ET / 4:30 PT – Denver @ Georgia
8:00 ET / 5:00 PT – Cancun Classic – (Arkansas, LSU, Iowa, Auburn, Arizona, San Jose St.)
8:00 ET / 5:00 PT – Cancun Classic – (Arkansas, LSU, Iowa, Auburn, Arizona, San Jose St.)
10:00 ET / 7:00 PT – UC Davis @ Arizona State
Saturday – 1/7/12
6:00 ET / 3:00 PT – Oklahoma, Bowling Green, Wisconsin-Oshkosh @ Kentucky
7:00 ET / 4:00 PT – Ohio State @ Minnesota
Sunday – 1/8/12
2:00 ET / 11:00 PT – Penn State, Maryland @ West Virginia
3:00 ET / 12:00 PT – Iowa State @ Missouri
5:00 ET / 2:00 PT – Utah @ UCLA
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)