Here it is. The big one. Are you excited? I'm excited. Ever since it became clear that Stanford's ranking would not emerge from the pitiful category before the end of the season, we've all been waiting to see which of the poor souls that bothered to get good scores all year long would suffer the punishment of being placed with Stanford. The winners are Auburn and Michigan. It's funny because the 6-7-18 regional is usually the boring one, the one where the top two teams have more than a fall of margin over anyone else, but this year, it's the one everyone is anticipating the most. Yes, I just decided which regional you're anticipating the most. It's this. The end.
Of course, that means it will end up being super boring. Without a doubt. It always happens. All of the other regionals will be intensely close throughout, and then this one will be decided in the first rotation. You know it.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Auburn (bye before bars)
[7] Michigan (beam)
[18] Stanford (floor)
[24] Eastern Michigan (bye before floor)
[25] Penn State (bars)
[33] New Hampshire (vault)
Competing individuals
Pittsburgh (Lindsay Offutt – AA; Tracey Pearson – AA; Miya Dotson – UB)
Rutgers (Libby Groden – AA; Nicolette Wilson – VT; Michelle Amoresano – VT)
Bridgeport (Brianna Comport – BB, FX; Christine Liautaud – UB; Randi Cutolo – FX)
West Chester (Majesta Valentine – AA)
Cornell (Kaitlin Green – BB)
The fight – Auburn v. Michigan v. Stanford
No favorites here. There can't be because someone very capable of a 197 will miss out on nationals, and any one of these three teams could be eliminated even with a hit meet.
Still, Stanford must be considered the challenger to the throne rather than the reigning monarch because of a few more clear weaknesses than the others and the lack of consistently competitive scores during the season. In spite of Stanford's definite potential to hit 197 and reputation for suddenly turning great once the elimination meets roll around, there's a reason Stanford is 18th and not 6th or 7th. The scores haven't been there the way they have for Auburn and Michigan, and Stanford really will have to put together a season-best performance to make it out of this competition. Normal won't be good enough. It has to be a Price/Hong 9.950, Rice/McNair 9.850 kind of day to pull out the 197+ score it will take to advance.
Auburn and Michigan are separated by essentially nothing. Auburn is a wisp ahead of Michigan in overall RQS, while Michigan is a wisp ahead of Auburn on each specific-event RQS. That indicates that Michigan has slightly higher peaks on each event but that Auburn has put it all together in the same meet slightly more often. It's all slight. The advantage of being at home may tip the balance to Michigan, which is why (in addition to Michigan's season high being the best in the competition) I see Auburn as more vulnerable than Michigan if both hit their meets. Really, there should only be a tenth or two between them either way.
Ergo...landings, landings, landings. On vault, for instance, Michigan has more difficulty, and the Olivia Karas grand finale has scored higher than the Caitlin Atkinson grand finale, but we have seen multiple meets this year in which Auburn has earned a very competitive vault score because of high-level landing control. Since Michigan's peak scoring potential has been higher this year, those landings are all the more important for Auburn to close any scoring potential gap.
For both teams, the vulnerability is beam. In fact, it has been a vulnerability for Stanford at times as this year well (but will be absolutely critical if Stanford is to stay in this), all of which is made evident by New Hampshire being ranked as the #2 beam team in this regional. Each of these top seeds has the potential for multiple 9.9s. Atkinson, Milliet, Demers, Artz, Chiarelli, Price, Hong. There's no shortage of impressive beamers in this meet, but Auburn has a tendency to throw a 9.7 or two out there early in the lineup, and Michigan has been a sudden fall-fest in the second half of the season. Beam will be the most telling indicator about whether Stanford is in this meet because secure hits from both Michigan and Auburn (in rotations one and three) would take away the primary area in which Stanford is looking to pick up tenths (in rotation five).
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
March 31, 2016
March 12, 2016
Saturday Live Blog – Georgia @ Utah; Big Five
Saturday, March 12
12:00 ET/9:00 PT – Cornell @ West Chester
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Big Five Meet #1: Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers @ Penn State - SCORES - TV: Big Ten Network
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Bridgeport @ Pennsylvania
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Big Five Meet #1: Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers @ Penn State - SCORES - TV: Big Ten Network
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Bridgeport @ Pennsylvania
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Big Five Meet #2: Nebraska, Illinois,
Michigan State, Maryland @ Ohio State - SCORES - BTN2Go (login)
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green - SCORES
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green - SCORES
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Temple, S. Connecticut, Rhode Island @ Brown
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Georgia @ Utah - SCORES - TV: Pac-12 Network
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Denver, Seattle Pacific @ Washington - SCORES - Stream
Getting started early today with the first of two Big Five qualifying meets. The one that's on TV. The other one isn't. Earlier, I said BTN was dumb. Turns out, I'm dumb. I thought BTN was showing an old meet between Nebraska and Penn State after this instead of the second Big Five meet, but they're actually showing a men's meet between Nebraska and Penn State. Which is also tape delayed. So not better. And in my defense...
Getting started early today with the first of two Big Five qualifying meets. The one that's on TV. The other one isn't. Earlier, I said BTN was dumb. Turns out, I'm dumb. I thought BTN was showing an old meet between Nebraska and Penn State after this instead of the second Big Five meet, but they're actually showing a men's meet between Nebraska and Penn State. Which is also tape delayed. So not better. And in my defense...
March 28, 2015
Norman Regional Preview
It begins. Just one week until the best day of the college gymnastics year. It finally starts to matter! Over the next few days, I'll be going through each of the regionals and breaking down the main things to watch for in each competition as we bite our fingernails and giggle like unhinged death-row inmates about who is going to advance to nationals. I'll begin with the top-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and their home regional, which will begin at 5:00 ET/2:00 PT on Saturday.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before bars)
[13] Penn State (beam)
[22] Southern Utah (bye before floor)
[27] Missouri (vault)
[34] NC State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Lindenwood (Valeri Ingui - AA; Kierstin Sokolowski - AA; Courtney Heise - bars), Arizona State (Taylor Allex - AA; Natasha Sundby - floor), Illinois-Chicago (Gabrielle May - AA), SEMO (Ashley Thomas - AA), Northern Illinois (Amanda Stepp - vault), and Illinois State (Sami King - beam).
Oklahoma
It's a significant milestone for Oklahoma to come in as the #1 seed, breaking Florida's four-year streak of being the #1 overall regionals seed, but I'm not going to spend too much time on Oklahoma right now. There will be plenty of opportunity for that once the nationals previews roll around because if Oklahoma were to be eliminated at this point, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever at regionals. The #1 team, undefeated, competing at home? Come on. They would have to count at least a couple falls. Probably 20.
As often happens at regionals, the best teams get sort of overlooked on the day, especially if a rotation and a half goes by and they're already ahead by a million tenths and clearly going to win, which I pretty much expect to happen here. The focus tends to turn to the real battles to make nationals, but there are still a couple areas in Oklahoma's performances to keep half an eye on with nationals in mind, particularly cleaning up some of those bars handstands from last weekend and continuing to hone those vault landings that I've been harping on lately. Unlike Oklahoma teams of a few years ago, this team should not be in a position to give up any ground to any other team on vault (they were at home and got a 49.4 last weekend, while LSU and Florida were away getting 49.5 and 49.6). To keep pace on vault this year, it's not about stepping for 9.900. It's about having multiple 9.950s. Because you better believe Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry can not-stick for 9.950. That's the pace that's being set that every other team has to match.
Oregon State and Penn State
But let's get to the real stuff. This regional is about Oregon State and Penn State in what should be one of the most entertaining showdowns next Saturday. I expect it to go back and forth all afternoon. These two teams were in the exact same position last year, coming into regionals as the #12 and #13 teams and fighting it out for the second spot, with Penn State ultimately coming out on top by two tenths, making it to nationals for just the second time in the last decade. That also marked the second-straight year that Oregon State failed to make nationals, and is exactly what makes regionals so important for the Beavs this year. They have to make it. Three years of missing nationals? Not acceptable for a team that really should be part of the top tier but is on the verge of losing that status. It was only a few years ago (in 2011) that Oregon State finished the regular season as the #3 team in the country, seemed an easy bet to make Super Six, and was even some people's cool, alternative sleeper pick to win. That's gone now.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before bars)
[13] Penn State (beam)
[22] Southern Utah (bye before floor)
[27] Missouri (vault)
[34] NC State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Lindenwood (Valeri Ingui - AA; Kierstin Sokolowski - AA; Courtney Heise - bars), Arizona State (Taylor Allex - AA; Natasha Sundby - floor), Illinois-Chicago (Gabrielle May - AA), SEMO (Ashley Thomas - AA), Northern Illinois (Amanda Stepp - vault), and Illinois State (Sami King - beam).
Oklahoma
It's a significant milestone for Oklahoma to come in as the #1 seed, breaking Florida's four-year streak of being the #1 overall regionals seed, but I'm not going to spend too much time on Oklahoma right now. There will be plenty of opportunity for that once the nationals previews roll around because if Oklahoma were to be eliminated at this point, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever at regionals. The #1 team, undefeated, competing at home? Come on. They would have to count at least a couple falls. Probably 20.
As often happens at regionals, the best teams get sort of overlooked on the day, especially if a rotation and a half goes by and they're already ahead by a million tenths and clearly going to win, which I pretty much expect to happen here. The focus tends to turn to the real battles to make nationals, but there are still a couple areas in Oklahoma's performances to keep half an eye on with nationals in mind, particularly cleaning up some of those bars handstands from last weekend and continuing to hone those vault landings that I've been harping on lately. Unlike Oklahoma teams of a few years ago, this team should not be in a position to give up any ground to any other team on vault (they were at home and got a 49.4 last weekend, while LSU and Florida were away getting 49.5 and 49.6). To keep pace on vault this year, it's not about stepping for 9.900. It's about having multiple 9.950s. Because you better believe Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry can not-stick for 9.950. That's the pace that's being set that every other team has to match.
Oregon State and Penn State
But let's get to the real stuff. This regional is about Oregon State and Penn State in what should be one of the most entertaining showdowns next Saturday. I expect it to go back and forth all afternoon. These two teams were in the exact same position last year, coming into regionals as the #12 and #13 teams and fighting it out for the second spot, with Penn State ultimately coming out on top by two tenths, making it to nationals for just the second time in the last decade. That also marked the second-straight year that Oregon State failed to make nationals, and is exactly what makes regionals so important for the Beavs this year. They have to make it. Three years of missing nationals? Not acceptable for a team that really should be part of the top tier but is on the verge of losing that status. It was only a few years ago (in 2011) that Oregon State finished the regular season as the #3 team in the country, seemed an easy bet to make Super Six, and was even some people's cool, alternative sleeper pick to win. That's gone now.
April 13, 2014
Nationals Preview Part 2: Who Is Suddenly Amazing?
Let us now move on to the quest to qualify out of the second semifinal. As with Oklahoma and LSU in the first session, I'll save the outlooks on Florida's and Alabama's chances for later because they are the most likely to advance from this session (barring a Florida-at-regionals level repeat) and to go on to contend for the national title. For now, it's time to look at Utah, UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State and their various chances to advance out of this semifinal.
Of the two semifinals, this is the more likely to be straightforward. Given what Florida, Alabama, and Utah have been scoring this season compared to UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see those three pull ahead early and stay ahead throughout. But, this is nationals. It wouldn't be the kooky competition we know and love without a few crazy falls, so don't count it as over and done too early. It's not as clear cut as last year's afternoon semifinal was, when Florida, LSU, and Georgia had basically already advanced over Minnesota, Stanford, and Illinois before the meet even began. There's more chance for an upset this year. As in the early session, it should take over a 197 to advance, so the 197+ standard is how we must evaluate all the teams.
UTAH
Utah is a cusp team this year, sitting on the border between the favorites and the contenders. At times, they have scored right with the top teams in the country, getting some high 197s and that home 198, but at other times, they have looked a step behind, usually the result of a beam rotation that - even though the falling ship has been righted - isn't scoring competitively enough to keep them on that 198 pace. Right now Utah looks like a safe-ish pick to make it back to Super Six and reclaim the team's honor after a program-worst finish of 9th last season, but they will be an outsider in the race to do damage once they get to Super Six.
The Utes will have the same rotation order they did at regionals, beginning on bars and finishing on vault. Regionals was not the best showing for the team, so even though an identical 197.300 could very well end up making it through from this semifinal, they'll want to improve on what happened in Fayetteville in order to eliminate any questions about who will qualify. A lot of that potential improvement can come right from the first rotation on bars. The 49.250 from regionals is a fine number but much lower than they have been scoring this season, with every member of the lineup coming in below her RQS. Utah makes its money on bars by sticking the hell out of all its landings, and that didn't happen enough at regionals. If Utah is to reach its goal of ensuring this semifinal is completely uninteresting, they'll need to stick all the way through the lineup like they did in last year's semifinal for a 49.475. Bars was by far their best event at championships last season, which was quite unexpected. They could use a similarly unexpected massive hit as early insurance at this meet, just in case beam is a little beamy.
Of the two semifinals, this is the more likely to be straightforward. Given what Florida, Alabama, and Utah have been scoring this season compared to UCLA, Nebraska, and Penn State, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see those three pull ahead early and stay ahead throughout. But, this is nationals. It wouldn't be the kooky competition we know and love without a few crazy falls, so don't count it as over and done too early. It's not as clear cut as last year's afternoon semifinal was, when Florida, LSU, and Georgia had basically already advanced over Minnesota, Stanford, and Illinois before the meet even began. There's more chance for an upset this year. As in the early session, it should take over a 197 to advance, so the 197+ standard is how we must evaluate all the teams.
UTAH
Utah is a cusp team this year, sitting on the border between the favorites and the contenders. At times, they have scored right with the top teams in the country, getting some high 197s and that home 198, but at other times, they have looked a step behind, usually the result of a beam rotation that - even though the falling ship has been righted - isn't scoring competitively enough to keep them on that 198 pace. Right now Utah looks like a safe-ish pick to make it back to Super Six and reclaim the team's honor after a program-worst finish of 9th last season, but they will be an outsider in the race to do damage once they get to Super Six.
The Utes will have the same rotation order they did at regionals, beginning on bars and finishing on vault. Regionals was not the best showing for the team, so even though an identical 197.300 could very well end up making it through from this semifinal, they'll want to improve on what happened in Fayetteville in order to eliminate any questions about who will qualify. A lot of that potential improvement can come right from the first rotation on bars. The 49.250 from regionals is a fine number but much lower than they have been scoring this season, with every member of the lineup coming in below her RQS. Utah makes its money on bars by sticking the hell out of all its landings, and that didn't happen enough at regionals. If Utah is to reach its goal of ensuring this semifinal is completely uninteresting, they'll need to stick all the way through the lineup like they did in last year's semifinal for a 49.475. Bars was by far their best event at championships last season, which was quite unexpected. They could use a similarly unexpected massive hit as early insurance at this meet, just in case beam is a little beamy.
March 29, 2014
University Park, PA Regional Preview
This marks our first weekend without gymnastics since December. What are we even supposed to do with ourselves? Socialize with people? About things? Address responsibilities? Guh. Incorrect. Instead, let's emotionally prepare ourselves for next Saturday, my favorite day of the gymnastics year, by breaking down each regional. Good idea? I think so. I'll begin with the #1 seed Florida Gators and the Penn State Regional beginning at 4ET/1PT.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Florida (bye before bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before floor)
[15] Penn State (vault)
[23] New Hampshire (floor)
[29] Kentucky (bars)
[35] Maryland (beam)
Competing individuals are from Brown (Diana Walters, Caroline Morant, Michelle Schnayder), Pittsburgh (Brittney Harris, Maebelle Pacheco - vault, Katie O'Rourke - beam and floor), Bridgeport (Lissette La Fex), and Cornell (Melanie Jorgensen - bars).
The Favorite
Another year, another #1 Florida team. The 2014 season marks the fourth consecutive time Florida has entered regionals as the #1 overall team in the country. Aside from the near-disaster beamtastrophe in 2011 after which the team just barely squeaked through by .025, Florida has worn the #1 crown comfortably at regionals, and this competition should be no exception. Sure, I could try to concoct possible scenarios where Florida counts 11 beam falls and gets into trouble, but that's a waste. The Gators should advance by a hefty margin and probably won't garner that much attention on the day. We'll all be too focused on the legitimate, clawing fights for nationals spots.
There will be plenty of time to talk about Florida in the weeks leading up to nationals, but I still have an area or two I want to keep an eye on as we gauge whether the Gators can repeat as champions, especially coming off the loss at SECs. Florida didn't have huge problems in that competition, but they showed some ragged qualities and uncharacteristic mistakes here and there that indicated a step down in quality from the stellar performances they had leading up to SECs. Claire Boyce falling on a rudi, Bridgey going OOB in the deciding routine, a couple lackluster landings on beam dismounts, these were unexpected errors, but not trends. It's not really a thing until it happens again. But, if there's one area I do want to watch for Florida at regionals, it's vault and the progression of those landings. They're still missing sticks and giving away tenths in most of those routines, and that's been happening fairly frequently.
Now, we saw the exact same thing last year, with Florida looking predominately blah in the vault landing department at SECs and then bringing themselves into line after that. By Super Six, Florida had far and away the best vault landings of any team. They should pull things together again this year, but this Florida vault team is not as strong as last year's group, so it will be interesting to see if they can progress in the same way. They can't be in a position of giving up multiple tenths to Alabama and LSU on vault like they did at SECs.
But really, let's get to the main story of this regional.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Florida (bye before bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before floor)
[15] Penn State (vault)
[23] New Hampshire (floor)
[29] Kentucky (bars)
[35] Maryland (beam)
Competing individuals are from Brown (Diana Walters, Caroline Morant, Michelle Schnayder), Pittsburgh (Brittney Harris, Maebelle Pacheco - vault, Katie O'Rourke - beam and floor), Bridgeport (Lissette La Fex), and Cornell (Melanie Jorgensen - bars).
The Favorite
Another year, another #1 Florida team. The 2014 season marks the fourth consecutive time Florida has entered regionals as the #1 overall team in the country. Aside from the near-disaster beamtastrophe in 2011 after which the team just barely squeaked through by .025, Florida has worn the #1 crown comfortably at regionals, and this competition should be no exception. Sure, I could try to concoct possible scenarios where Florida counts 11 beam falls and gets into trouble, but that's a waste. The Gators should advance by a hefty margin and probably won't garner that much attention on the day. We'll all be too focused on the legitimate, clawing fights for nationals spots.
There will be plenty of time to talk about Florida in the weeks leading up to nationals, but I still have an area or two I want to keep an eye on as we gauge whether the Gators can repeat as champions, especially coming off the loss at SECs. Florida didn't have huge problems in that competition, but they showed some ragged qualities and uncharacteristic mistakes here and there that indicated a step down in quality from the stellar performances they had leading up to SECs. Claire Boyce falling on a rudi, Bridgey going OOB in the deciding routine, a couple lackluster landings on beam dismounts, these were unexpected errors, but not trends. It's not really a thing until it happens again. But, if there's one area I do want to watch for Florida at regionals, it's vault and the progression of those landings. They're still missing sticks and giving away tenths in most of those routines, and that's been happening fairly frequently.
Now, we saw the exact same thing last year, with Florida looking predominately blah in the vault landing department at SECs and then bringing themselves into line after that. By Super Six, Florida had far and away the best vault landings of any team. They should pull things together again this year, but this Florida vault team is not as strong as last year's group, so it will be interesting to see if they can progress in the same way. They can't be in a position of giving up multiple tenths to Alabama and LSU on vault like they did at SECs.
But really, let's get to the main story of this regional.
January 5, 2014
The Day It Kind of Began
It's here! It's here a little bit! Three whole meets were conducted today, and in conclusion, we should have just waited until next weekend. Let's call this a false start. Don't fret, it's only five more days until the season really starts. Here's a quick rundown of what happened today.
Stanford 194.825 - Cal 194.650 - Sacramento State 194.400 - UC Davis 193.450 - San Jose State 193.325
For a while it looked like Cal was going to win, which would have been an important symbolic moment for the team, then for a second it looked like Sacramento State was going to win (could have done it with a 48.775 on floor), but Stanford pulled it out in the end while being very Stanford in January throughout.
Stanford is not a team that comes out blazing. Strong performances in the first meet have happened from time to time, but 194s have happened more. We did see a bunch of routines from freshmen, 9 of 24 including 4 of 6 on vault, which is crucial. These freshmen will need to do a lot of scoring work, especially while Hong is not around. None of them had strong first showings, but the potential is still encouraging. It's going to be more of a March thing. Nicolette McNair's 9.850 was the one highish score from the newbies, and it was bested only by Kristina Vaculik's 9.875 on bars, the top score of the meet. So at least some things in the world make sense. Stanford dropped a fall on bars from Rice and on beam from N McNair but had to count one from the floor lineup, which featured a number of people I don't expect to see competing later on. It's like a practice. Stanford's next meet is at home against Georgia next Sunday, and we can assume that winning with a 194 will not be a thing then.
Cal hit a little bit, but it was an extremely 9.725 meet. That's OK (two years ago they would have been over the moon about that score), but we're going to start having higher expectations for this team. There is 9.800 talent throughout these lineups. Alicia Asturias was the standout performer because obviously. Her 9.850s on beam and floor led the team. She also took the AA title. Jessica Howe came in on beam and floor for 9.7s, and Charlie Owens did the same in the AA. Both will have to be major contributors this season.
[15] Penn State 193.925 - Iowa State 193.550
So, this was a meet of 193s. It's the first meet of the season, and we always see 193s in the opening weeks, but Penn State is over-ranked in the coaches poll at #15. PSU finished last season at #15, and after losing Musser and Merriam, there is no reason to expect the same quality this year. Regression is quite likely, and we already saw the lack of big savior routines in this meet. That a 193 was recorded without counting a fall is troubling. It wasn't like they were going to score higher but for an unfortunate January-type falling moment. Randi Lau was the only one to break 9.8 with a 9.825 on vault, and that routine will be vital this year. She made the vault lineup for LSU, so she'll be the star vaulter for Penn State.
Central Michigan 194.450 - Wisconsin-Eau Claire 180.200
This was also a meet. Of significance, Halle Moraw's 9.875 on floor tied for the highest score recorded this weekend was the top floor mark for any team. Temporarily #1 in the country!
Stanford 194.825 - Cal 194.650 - Sacramento State 194.400 - UC Davis 193.450 - San Jose State 193.325
For a while it looked like Cal was going to win, which would have been an important symbolic moment for the team, then for a second it looked like Sacramento State was going to win (could have done it with a 48.775 on floor), but Stanford pulled it out in the end while being very Stanford in January throughout.
Stanford is not a team that comes out blazing. Strong performances in the first meet have happened from time to time, but 194s have happened more. We did see a bunch of routines from freshmen, 9 of 24 including 4 of 6 on vault, which is crucial. These freshmen will need to do a lot of scoring work, especially while Hong is not around. None of them had strong first showings, but the potential is still encouraging. It's going to be more of a March thing. Nicolette McNair's 9.850 was the one highish score from the newbies, and it was bested only by Kristina Vaculik's 9.875 on bars, the top score of the meet. So at least some things in the world make sense. Stanford dropped a fall on bars from Rice and on beam from N McNair but had to count one from the floor lineup, which featured a number of people I don't expect to see competing later on. It's like a practice. Stanford's next meet is at home against Georgia next Sunday, and we can assume that winning with a 194 will not be a thing then.
Cal hit a little bit, but it was an extremely 9.725 meet. That's OK (two years ago they would have been over the moon about that score), but we're going to start having higher expectations for this team. There is 9.800 talent throughout these lineups. Alicia Asturias was the standout performer because obviously. Her 9.850s on beam and floor led the team. She also took the AA title. Jessica Howe came in on beam and floor for 9.7s, and Charlie Owens did the same in the AA. Both will have to be major contributors this season.
[15] Penn State 193.925 - Iowa State 193.550
So, this was a meet of 193s. It's the first meet of the season, and we always see 193s in the opening weeks, but Penn State is over-ranked in the coaches poll at #15. PSU finished last season at #15, and after losing Musser and Merriam, there is no reason to expect the same quality this year. Regression is quite likely, and we already saw the lack of big savior routines in this meet. That a 193 was recorded without counting a fall is troubling. It wasn't like they were going to score higher but for an unfortunate January-type falling moment. Randi Lau was the only one to break 9.8 with a 9.825 on vault, and that routine will be vital this year. She made the vault lineup for LSU, so she'll be the star vaulter for Penn State.
Central Michigan 194.450 - Wisconsin-Eau Claire 180.200
This was also a meet. Of significance, Halle Moraw's 9.875 on floor tied for the highest score recorded this weekend was the top floor mark for any team. Temporarily #1 in the country!
April 1, 2013
Norman Regional Preview
[Yes, I originally wrote "Normal Regional Preview" because I am amazing.]
Oklahoma hosts the second regional, which features Stanford and Penn State as the seeded contenders and Washington, Iowa, and Southern Utah as the whippersnappers. This will be first meet to begin (5 ET/2 PT), so we should all get a good look at these teams before the madness begins.
Rotation order (starting event):
[2] Oklahoma (vault)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Penn State (bye before floor)
[22] Washington (floor)
[27] Iowa (bars)
[34] Southern Utah (beam)
The Favorite:
The Oklahoma Sooners enter regionals as the #2 seed for the second consecutive year but boast a much healthier crop of gymnasts this time. Last year, Oklahoma was forced to hobble to the finish with a slapped together roster (I'm pretty sure at least one member of the vault lineup was just a roll of masking tape), but the harrowing injury to Kayla Nowak during preseason appears to have scared off whatever Babylonian trickster god was plaguing the team. The only major issue since has been Keeley Kmieciak's tonsillectomy, and she is expected to return shortly.
Oklahoma hosts the second regional, which features Stanford and Penn State as the seeded contenders and Washington, Iowa, and Southern Utah as the whippersnappers. This will be first meet to begin (5 ET/2 PT), so we should all get a good look at these teams before the madness begins.
Rotation order (starting event):
[2] Oklahoma (vault)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Penn State (bye before floor)
[22] Washington (floor)
[27] Iowa (bars)
[34] Southern Utah (beam)
The Favorite:
The Oklahoma Sooners enter regionals as the #2 seed for the second consecutive year but boast a much healthier crop of gymnasts this time. Last year, Oklahoma was forced to hobble to the finish with a slapped together roster (I'm pretty sure at least one member of the vault lineup was just a roll of masking tape), but the harrowing injury to Kayla Nowak during preseason appears to have scared off whatever Babylonian trickster god was plaguing the team. The only major issue since has been Keeley Kmieciak's tonsillectomy, and she is expected to return shortly.
September 8, 2012
2013 Composite NCAA Schedule
New look for the blog. Do we like it? I'm not sure yet. I think it's more readable than before but is also maybe a little template-y and sterile, like a blog about orthodontics where orthodontists can say, "Oh, don't you hate when braces do that?" We'll see how it goes.
It's September, which means the preseason is rearing its head all over the place. We're getting schedules and updated rosters and hearing the news that Cassie Whitcomb unsurprisingly took a medical retirement. At her strongest, Whitcomb had some ideal Mary Lee Tracy handstands (flat hips!), so when she couldn't hit any handstands in exhibition routines last season, it became clear that her chronic back injury would not allow her to compete at this level. As a result, Kaelie Baer appears to have received a magic year.
Most of the top teams have now released their 2013 schedules, and I have compiled them here to give us a single handy resource for planning and reference purposes. [Edit: All the top teams have now released their schedules, so let's give a round of applause.]
Georgia has a characteristically packed schedule, but this year it includes no weeks off during the regular season. The first weekend off will be the bye week between SECs and Regionals. That always makes me nervous. Durante will have to be farsighted in her lineup strategy to protect against injury, especially with her frail elites like Worley and Davis.
Stanford once again is barely competing. Last season, the Cardinal didn't even register on the quality radar until Pac-12s and didn't even settle on final lineups until the day of Super Six, but maybe there's something to that. The team peaked at the right time, that's for sure.
The SEC teams always have the most difficult schedules out of conference necessity, but Georgia and Alabama stand out this season as having the most challenging roads. The only potentially soft meets for either of those teams are the conference meets against Kentucky and Missouri (as well as Georgia's meet against NC State).
2013 NCAA Schedule
It's September, which means the preseason is rearing its head all over the place. We're getting schedules and updated rosters and hearing the news that Cassie Whitcomb unsurprisingly took a medical retirement. At her strongest, Whitcomb had some ideal Mary Lee Tracy handstands (flat hips!), so when she couldn't hit any handstands in exhibition routines last season, it became clear that her chronic back injury would not allow her to compete at this level. As a result, Kaelie Baer appears to have received a magic year.
Most of the top teams have now released their 2013 schedules, and I have compiled them here to give us a single handy resource for planning and reference purposes. [Edit: All the top teams have now released their schedules, so let's give a round of applause.]
Georgia has a characteristically packed schedule, but this year it includes no weeks off during the regular season. The first weekend off will be the bye week between SECs and Regionals. That always makes me nervous. Durante will have to be farsighted in her lineup strategy to protect against injury, especially with her frail elites like Worley and Davis.
Stanford once again is barely competing. Last season, the Cardinal didn't even register on the quality radar until Pac-12s and didn't even settle on final lineups until the day of Super Six, but maybe there's something to that. The team peaked at the right time, that's for sure.
The SEC teams always have the most difficult schedules out of conference necessity, but Georgia and Alabama stand out this season as having the most challenging roads. The only potentially soft meets for either of those teams are the conference meets against Kentucky and Missouri (as well as Georgia's meet against NC State).
2013 NCAA Schedule
Week 1 – January 4-6
Friday, January 4
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ Florida
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – NC State @ LSU
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Stanford, Sacramento St., UC Davis @ San
Jose State
TBA – Cancun Invitational (Oregon State, Michigan, BYU)
TBA – Cancun Invitational (Oregon State, Michigan, BYU)
Saturday, January 5
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Oklahoma @ Georgia
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Penn State @ Denver
TBA – Ohio State @ Bowling Green
Sunday, January 6
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Southern Utah @ UCLA
April 2, 2012
Raleigh Regional Preview
Over the next few days, I'll be taking several moments to preview the Regional Championships, providing analysis and predictions as to what we might see come Saturday, my favorite day in the NCAA calendar. The Raleigh Regional boasts top seed Florida and will be the first to start on Saturday (4 ET / 1 PT), so it seems a logical place to begin. Our competitors will be [1] Florida, [12] Ohio State, [13] Penn State, [20] NC State, [26] Kent State, and [31] North Carolina.
The Favorite:
The Florida Gators once again find themselves in the 1/12/13 Regional, highlighting how nonsensical the seeding process is. If the goal is to finish in the top two at each Regional, why does the top-ranked team in the nation get the most difficult #3 seed? But this issue has been well covered, so I'll stop there.
Last year, Florida barely eked its way into Nationals after imploding on beam when Boise State just missed the necessary score in the last rotation, but I don't expect to see a repeat of those nail-biting conditions this year. While the Gators of 2012 are a bit less polished, they are also much less likely to incur a fall than were the Gators of 2011, which makes all the difference for qualifying. Lack of polish never prevented a top team from advancing. That's the job of falls. As we saw at SECs, Florida can be a little off and still go into the low 197s, which should certainly be enough to win the group. I'm going to give this one to Florida in a landslide.
However, there are still issues we need to keep an eye on as we evaluate the Gators' chances heading to Nationals. At SECs, the tumbling was uncontrolled and inexact, and there needs to be much more sticking across all the events. As Suzanne rightly pointed out on the SEC broadcast, Florida's delayed training schedule has put them behind some of the other teams in terms of focusing on sticking. This is not necessarily a problem, in fact it's probably a good thing, but it could become a problem if they haven't made any progress on this front by Regionals.
Another concern of mine, as I've mentioned before, is the lineups. Florida is a very deep team on paper, but they have a self-imposed shallowness because of sticking to the same lineups. Who would go in on beam if there is an injury? What's the vault situation? There's Spicer in the first position and a slightly injured Ellis up second (or Shisler if Ellis can't go), so there will likely be little progress above 9.800 in those spots. Now, as we saw at SECs, the final four for Florida can still make it a big rotation, but there is little margin in that lineup. If one of the last four takes a big landing deduction, they won't be able to keep pace. At Nationals, Florida needs to be top 3 on vault. But this does go to show that Florida's problems are relatively minor at this point, and having to count a couple 9.775s will not be a problem for another three weeks.
More interesting than the expected Florida romp, though, will be the fight for the second spot.
The Favorite:
The Florida Gators once again find themselves in the 1/12/13 Regional, highlighting how nonsensical the seeding process is. If the goal is to finish in the top two at each Regional, why does the top-ranked team in the nation get the most difficult #3 seed? But this issue has been well covered, so I'll stop there.
Last year, Florida barely eked its way into Nationals after imploding on beam when Boise State just missed the necessary score in the last rotation, but I don't expect to see a repeat of those nail-biting conditions this year. While the Gators of 2012 are a bit less polished, they are also much less likely to incur a fall than were the Gators of 2011, which makes all the difference for qualifying. Lack of polish never prevented a top team from advancing. That's the job of falls. As we saw at SECs, Florida can be a little off and still go into the low 197s, which should certainly be enough to win the group. I'm going to give this one to Florida in a landslide.
However, there are still issues we need to keep an eye on as we evaluate the Gators' chances heading to Nationals. At SECs, the tumbling was uncontrolled and inexact, and there needs to be much more sticking across all the events. As Suzanne rightly pointed out on the SEC broadcast, Florida's delayed training schedule has put them behind some of the other teams in terms of focusing on sticking. This is not necessarily a problem, in fact it's probably a good thing, but it could become a problem if they haven't made any progress on this front by Regionals.
Another concern of mine, as I've mentioned before, is the lineups. Florida is a very deep team on paper, but they have a self-imposed shallowness because of sticking to the same lineups. Who would go in on beam if there is an injury? What's the vault situation? There's Spicer in the first position and a slightly injured Ellis up second (or Shisler if Ellis can't go), so there will likely be little progress above 9.800 in those spots. Now, as we saw at SECs, the final four for Florida can still make it a big rotation, but there is little margin in that lineup. If one of the last four takes a big landing deduction, they won't be able to keep pace. At Nationals, Florida needs to be top 3 on vault. But this does go to show that Florida's problems are relatively minor at this point, and having to count a couple 9.775s will not be a problem for another three weeks.
More interesting than the expected Florida romp, though, will be the fight for the second spot.
January 21, 2012
Saturday Scores - Alabama, Michigan, and Penn State
Soon, Michigan will get underway visiting Minnesota and Alabama will begin at Penn State (along with Michigan State and Cornell).
If Alabama can hit bars, they have the potential to score exceptionally well and keep pace with Arkansas's weekend-leading 197.225. This will be Alabama's first road meet, and it will be interesting to see whether they can match their huge home score on vault and keep pace with UCLA on that event. However, the bars issue is most important because, like last year, this group really has no business making numerous mistakes on bars. While scoring in the 49.3-49.4 range that they will need to in the postseason could be an issue down the road, hitting six routines should not be. We saw way too many errors on handstands against Georgia. I'd rather them be short and take a minor deduction than go over and ruin the routine.
For Michigan, the goal should be putting up six usable routines on every apparatus, finding a group that can hit beam well, and trying to break into the 196 range. They have little depth, but I'd like to see some of it coming into play. They'll need Annette Miele fully healthy and hitting well this year.
Follow here with scores and comments.
If Alabama can hit bars, they have the potential to score exceptionally well and keep pace with Arkansas's weekend-leading 197.225. This will be Alabama's first road meet, and it will be interesting to see whether they can match their huge home score on vault and keep pace with UCLA on that event. However, the bars issue is most important because, like last year, this group really has no business making numerous mistakes on bars. While scoring in the 49.3-49.4 range that they will need to in the postseason could be an issue down the road, hitting six routines should not be. We saw way too many errors on handstands against Georgia. I'd rather them be short and take a minor deduction than go over and ruin the routine.
For Michigan, the goal should be putting up six usable routines on every apparatus, finding a group that can hit beam well, and trying to break into the 196 range. They have little depth, but I'd like to see some of it coming into play. They'll need Annette Miele fully healthy and hitting well this year.
Follow here with scores and comments.
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