Iowa Regional Preview

Thus, the insanity begins. Last year, we were subjected to the relative letdown of all twelve #1 and #2 seeds advancing to nationals, but this season has been marked by uprooting of the traditional order of things, with teams like Cal and Denver breaking into the top 12 and shoving out some more established powers. The heavy parity among most of the teams ranked 10-18 should be cause for hope that we'll see some real upsets this year, but even if we don't and all the #1 and #2 seeds go through, that would still mean that less-traditional qualifiers like Cal and Denver are heading to nationals. 

Before we go to therapy for our anticipation problems by dissecting the regional championships one by one, the news of the day is the announcement of the six finalists for the AAI Award, a.k.a. the Best Senior Award: Caitlin Atkinson, Ivana Hong, Lindsay Mable, Nina McGee, Haley Scaman, and Bridget Sloan. Snubs include Brandie Jay, Brittany Rogers, Danusia Francis, Lauren Beers, among others. I wonder who's going to win...

Anyway, to the regionals! Let's begin with the top-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and their visit to the land of that butter statue of Shawn Johnson, the great state of Iowa.
  
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Oklahoma (bye before bars)
[12] Nebraska (beam)
[13] Arkansas (floor)
[19] Iowa (bye before floor)
[30] Kent State (bars)
[35] Central Michigan (vault)

Competing individuals
Western Michigan (Anna Corbett – AA; Kelsey Hood – AA; Jessie Peszek – UB, BB; Rachel Underwood – BB, FX; Jessi Buis – VT; Jessica Juncaj – UB) 
Ball State (Denaisha Christian – VT, FX; Sarah Ebeyer – VT, FX; Jordyn Penny – UB; Baylee Bell – BB)
Centenary (Ashley White – AA)

The favorite — Oklahoma


The Sooners should sail through this competition for all of the reasons, of particular note being that their season average is greater than the season high of any other team in the meet and that they've spent the month of March looking even more postseasony than usual. It would be a massive disaster if Oklahoma were not to qualify out of this session, so I'll spend more time addressing the Sooners later once we head toward nationals and start evaluating the title chances of the various top contenders.

If things go to plan and Oklahoma is up by, you know, seven tenths halfway through the meet, everyone's attention will probably be directed at the exciting qualification fight for the second spot in this session, but there are still a few areas to look out for in Oklahoma's performance with eyes toward nationals. As with pretty much all the teams, refining landings will be a major focus of the next month. Vault is the only event on which Oklahoma doesn't own the world, currently sitting in 3rd place behind LSU and Florida, often a result of the lineup peaking around 9.875 when Scaman and Jackson have larger steps on their 1.5s at the end. They need some more consistently controlled landings on those 1.5s to keep pace with the Gnats and the Bakers. (Should Oklahoma mimic what Florida does with McMurtry and throw a sticker like Kmieciak or Capps in the anchor spot after the 1.5s to ensure they get 9.9s instead of potentially being kept down earlier in the lineup?) I'm also interested to see how the routines are being evaluated as a whole since we'll get both Oklahoma and Florida as away teams at (hopefully) non-cuckoo-scoring venues at the same time for comparison. 

The fight — Nebraska v. Arkansas

This year, the #3 seeds are ending on a bye, which isn't great for the excitement of the competition but does mean that we should know exactly what Nebraska needs to do on bars heading into the final rotation since Arkansas will already be done. We have reason to hope it'll be close because there's very little to separate these teams right now, as it should be when the #12 and #13 face off. It would be hard to consider either team advancing much of an upset. In fact, while Nebraska's overall RQS is a touch higher than Arkansas's, their four event RQSs total exactly identically.

Saturday Live Blog – Georgia @ Utah; Big Five

Saturday, March 12

12:00 ET/9:00 PT – Cornell @ West Chester
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Big Five Meet #1: Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers @ Penn State - SCORES - TV: Big Ten Network
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – Bridgeport @ Pennsylvania

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Big Five Meet #2: Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, Maryland @ Ohio State - SCORES - BTN2Go (login)
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green - SCORES 

6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Temple, S. Connecticut, Rhode Island @ Brown

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Georgia @ Utah - SCORES - TV: Pac-12 Network

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – LSU, Oregon State, New Hampshire @ Texas Woman’s - SCORES - Flog($)

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ NC State - SCORES - Stream

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Denver, Seattle Pacific @ Washington - SCORES - Stream

Getting started early today with the first of two Big Five qualifying meets. The one that's on TV. The other one isn't. Earlier, I said BTN was dumb. Turns out, I'm dumb. I thought BTN was showing an old meet between Nebraska and Penn State after this instead of the second Big Five meet, but they're actually showing a men's meet between Nebraska and Penn State. Which is also tape delayed. So not better. And in my defense...

 

 

Saturday Live Blog – Oklahoma @ Georgia; Utah @ Stanford

Saturday, February 20

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Oklahoma @ Georgia - SCORES - SECN

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Alabama, Denver, Cornell @ Penn State - SCORES - Stream(free)

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Utah @ Stanford - SCORES - Pac-12

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Cal @ Oregon State - SCORES - Pac-12 Oregon

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Towson @ Iowa - SCORES - Stream($)

6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Pennsylvania, Temple, Ursinus @ Rutgers - SCORES 

10:15 ET/7:15 PT – Winter Cuppity Cup Cup Cup – SCORES/STREAM

Joyful times to be had by all! Until we get to Georgia on beam. Then...we'll see. The main focus of the day will be everything, but mostly Oklahoma and Georgia because I'm fascinated to see those two up against each other. I don't think it's going to be the cakewalk for Oklahoma it might seem based on most previous scores, so that's obviously the kiss of death. Enjoy reading that sentence after Oklahoma wins by three points.

First eye goes on that meet. Second eye on Utah and Stanford because that's now an urgent scoring assignment for Stanford. Remaining eyes on Iowa's scores and the "who's fourth-best in this conference" showdown between OSU and Cal. Oh, and Alabama! Too much!

Also, why you should be a fan of Kaytianna McMillan.

"That was a good sentence. We have like maybe two."

And then tonight, the elite boys get their Winter Cup on, which is always a treat. It's like gymnastics, but where everyone falls on everything. It's really fun. You'll like it a lot.

Auburn Regional Preview

Alabama and Auburn. Reunited and it feels like we just did this twice. In the first meeting this season, at Alabama, the Tide won by 0.500. In the second meeting, at a neutral-ish site in Birmingham, the Tide won by 0.125. Auburn is getting closer. So, third time's the charm? Or something? It doesn't really matter as long as both finish in the top two, but winning this regional would be a big old deal for Auburn, especially since Alabama is coming off that SEC title.

Competing teams (starting event)
[5] Alabama (bars)
[8] Auburn (bye before bars)
[17] Minnesota (beam)
[23] Iowa (bye before floor)
[30] Maryland (vault)
[31] George Washington (floor)

Competing individuals are from North Carolina (Morgan Lane - AA; Haley Watts - AA; Kaitlynn Hedelund - bars), William & Mary (Brittany Stover - AA; Larson Lasek - AA; Maggie Lundeen - floor), and Towson (Tyra McKellar - AA; Katie Sassa - vault; Lauren Ross - beam).

Alabama and Auburn


It should be Alabama and Auburn. We've got some quality Big Ten challenges in this regional, but Auburn being the host just reinforces that edge over the other teams and makes it more difficult for anyone else to break in. Even at SECs, Auburn was just OK until a strong beam performance in the last rotation, but the team total was still a 196.925, which is higher than the season high of any of the other four teams in this regional. When I did the regional scoring comparison, Alabama and Auburn finished in the top two of every single category. They certainly have the inside track.

Alabama erased some question marks by winning SECs and managed to remind us all that this is not a team to relegate to afterthought, maybe-next-year status. They executed a comfortable and consistent meet, recording ten scores of 9.9+ and establishing themselves as the team that's going to hit when everything else is going wrong. But at the same time, everything else going wrong is what gave Alabama the title. Florida hits beam, and that meet isn't close, which should still be cause for concern for every other team. At this point, Alabama seems an extremely easy choice to make it through this regional (right now looking among the least likely teams to have a sudden meltdown—I know, kiss of death) and a logical, sane pick to qualify to Super Six as well. But do I see Alabama as a national title contender? Not yet. 

It's not about one big area to work on for Alabama, though I do think the lack of big scores in the bars lineup will be an obstacle (and makes getting a hit routine from Kaitlyn Clark much more important because she can be that big score). It's about getting 9.950s out of every single person who is capable of them. Alabama just does not have as many possible 9.950s as the other top contenders, so the ones that do potentially exist (for instance, Clark, Williams, Beers on vault, Sims and Beers on floor), have to be huge scores every single time. Right now, I have the sense that Alabama could go into Super Six, hit a completely solid meet with no significant errors, and finish four tenths behind the winner, simply from getting stuck in the good 9.875s instead of the great 9.950s.



As for Auburn, this is your chance. You need to take it. Auburn hasn't been to nationals since 2003, but this year's group has a good argument as the best team Auburn has ever produced (Auburn did finish 5th in 1993, but the amount I could tell you about that team is encapsulated by this ellipsis...). Plus, this is a home regional. You're not getting a better opportunity. You need to make nationals. The home scores this year are cause for comfort for Auburn fans, or just interested onlookers who think it would be nice if Auburn finally made it back to nationals. Auburn has gone over 197 in four of the five home meets this year, featuring that program-high 197.750 against Georgia.

Norman Regional Preview

[Yes, I originally wrote "Normal Regional Preview" because I am amazing.]

Oklahoma hosts the second regional, which features Stanford and Penn State as the seeded contenders and Washington, Iowa, and Southern Utah as the whippersnappers. This will be first meet to begin (5 ET/2 PT), so we should all get a good look at these teams before the madness begins.

Rotation order (starting event):
[2] Oklahoma (vault)
[11] Stanford (bye before bars)
[14] Penn State (bye before floor)
[22] Washington (floor)
[27] Iowa (bars)
[34] Southern Utah (beam)

The Favorite:


The Oklahoma Sooners enter regionals as the #2 seed for the second consecutive year but boast a much healthier crop of gymnasts this time. Last year, Oklahoma was forced to hobble to the finish with a slapped together roster (I'm pretty sure at least one member of the vault lineup was just a roll of masking tape), but the harrowing injury to Kayla Nowak during preseason appears to have scared off whatever Babylonian trickster god was plaguing the team. The only major issue since has been Keeley Kmieciak's tonsillectomy, and she is expected to return shortly.

Seattle Regional Preview

Our fourth Regional up for debate will be hosted by the University of Washington at 7:00 ET / 4:00 PT on Saturday and features [4] Alabama, [9] LSU, [16] Arizona, [23] Washington, [30] Iowa, and [36] Central Michigan.

The Favorite:

Not to sound too repetitive, but like the other top seeds previewed so far (we'll have a bit more discussion for the final two Regionals), I don't see Alabama having any trouble at all taking first place at this Regional. One of the biggest issues for Alabama toward the end of the season has been establishing the best beam and floor lineups, but while the team certainly struggled on beam at SECs, I do think the lineup that competed was the correct choice. Gutierrez and Sledge have the potential for fine routines, but they have not proven the reliability that some of the others have. Milliner is still a bit of a question, and I would like to see Jacob regain some of her form from last postseason, but this is the best of the available options. At any rate, I don't expect Alabama to have a fall at Regionals, so they're fine.

The biggest factor in determining Alabama's success likely will not be a single event but will be their ability to stick landings across four events. Alabama should always be neck and neck with UCLA for the top score on vault, but they haven't stuck well in weeks. Now, they recently got a 49.475 at home, but if you watch the vaults, there were way too many tenths given away on landings. Similarly, the first three bar workers are not standouts and will incur definite deductions on handstands (Demeo's half turn is just asking for it, and I question the routine composition for that reason), so stuck landings are a must. I don't see any of the first three going above a 9.800 without a stick.

The other major key for Alabama is Geralen Stack-Eaton. This team is very reliant on its seniors and will not be successful if both don't have a great meet at the same time. At Nationals, Stack-Eaton should be in the running for the AA title because she can go 9.900 on every event, but the team cannot afford her to have any stinker routines like she did at SECs. Those routines (along with Priess on beam) were the difference between first and second. If Stack-Eaton isn't getting 9.9s, then who is?