Georgia Regional Preview

A quick glance at Saturday's schedule reveals that regionals have been planned even more horrifically than usual this year. There will be a point during the day at which five of the six competitions will be occurring simultaneously, mostly because they hate us and want us to miss everything. And by they, I mean the people. The people who do the things. Spread the regionals throughout the day, is all I ask. The silver lining to all of this is that Georgia's regional begins an hour before all the others, and Georgia starts on beam. That means we can watch that entire emotional roller coaster unfold without distraction. Thank you, Georgia, for your time zone.

Competing teams (starting event)
[3] LSU (bye before bars)
[9] Georgia (beam)
[14] Oregon State (floor)
[22] Arizona (bye before floor)
[27] George Washington (bars)
[36] Michigan State (vault)

Competing individuals
NC State (Brittni Watkins – AA; Chelsea Knight – VT; Nicole Wild – BB)
Maryland (Kathy Tang – VT, FX; Abbie Epperson – UB; Macey Roberts – FX)
North Carolina (Morgan Lane – AA; Kaitlynn Hedelund – UB)
Towson (Tyra McKellar – AA; Mary Elle Arduino – BB)
William & Mary (Brittany Stover – AA)

The favorite – LSU


LSU should join Oklahoma and Florida at the same level of heavy, heavy, super favorites to advance from regionals, though the Tigers may feel a little more pressure in this one given the quality of the opposition and the scoring pedigree shown by Georgia and Oregon State, both historically and lately. This competition features the second-deepest collection of 1-2-3 seeds (behind the Michigan regional), so LSU will not be able to afford any mind-losing on beam. These other teams are too capable of taking advantage. Sans any mind-losing and fall-counting, however, LSU will slide through to nationals without forcing DD to punishment-sequin anyone.

The Tigers should have been right in the hunt for the SEC title this year but ended up a step behind Florida and Alabama entirely because of their performance on bars in the first rotation. In fact, if you take the scores from just vault, beam, and floor, LSU wins the competition. Lucky, lucky LSU, they'll be starting on bars at regionals. You're welcome. This LSU bars lineup should be quite strong, but as we saw at SECs, it has emerged as the team's weak event and is still too reliant on Finnegan saving Earth through the medium of toe point for a 9.950. Wyrick hasn't shown a great deal consistency since returning, Zamardi can often dismount herself down to 9.850, and Priessman has a couple built-in errors on the pak and a DLO that can look troublingly Shades of Shayla sometimes. All of them could score quite well, but they're walking a fine line between greatness and getting stuck in the 9.800s, as happened at SECs. As we learned, that's not going to cut it when trying to beat Florida.

The fight – Georgia v. Oregon State


I considered throwing Georgia up into the favorite category with LSU as I do think Georgia should be able to 197 its way through this one, especially at home, but Oregon State proved with its performance at Pac-12s to be among the most dangerous and compelling upset challengers in the country. The Beavs simply suffered the (bad) luck of the draw in getting placed with Home Georgia since the original, non-host-adjusted draw would have seen them placed with Road Denver, where they would have been favorites to qualify. This job is much more challenging. The Beavs will take some confidence that the 196.925 at Pac-12s beat the 196.850 Georgia put up at SECs. Not equivalent meets, no host advantage, etc, but certainly a complication to this regional. On the other hand, Oregon State has not hit 197 yet all year, and in spite of all of the Gymdogs' problems, they have done so in three of the last four meets and really should at regionals.

Friday Live Blog – Auburn @ LSU; Florida, Michigan, Missouri

Friday, February 19

6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan - SCORES - ESPN3
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Florida @ Missouri - SCORES - SECN
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Illinois @ Michigan State - SCORES - Stream ($)

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – New Hampshire, North Carolina, William & Mary @ George Washington - SCORES - Stream($)

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – UW-Eau Claire @ Gustavus Adolphus - SCORES 

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Arkansas @ Maryland - SCORES - BTN2Go ($)

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Minnesota, Air Force @ Iowa State - SCORES

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Illinois State @ SEMO - SCORES

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Hamline @ Winona State - SCORES

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – UW-Stout @ UW-Oshkosh - Stream

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Ball State, Seattle Pacific @ Northern Illinois - SCORES - ESPN3

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Centenary @ UW-Whitewater - Stream

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – Auburn @ LSU - SCORES - SECN

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Michigan, UC Davis @ Southern Utah - SCORES - FLOG($)

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Ohio State @ Boise State - SCORES - Stream

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Utah State @ BYU - SCORES - Stream

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – San Jose State @ Sacramento State

Week 6 rankings

Friday Live Blog – Alabama @ Auburn; Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, AND SO MUCH MORE

Friday, February 12

6:00 ET/3:00 PT – Southern Connecticut @ Bridgeport
6:30 ET/3:30 PT – Air Force @ Cortland State - Stream

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Arkansas @ Florida - SCORES - SECN

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Missouri @ Kentucky - SCORES - SECN

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – NC State, William & Mary @ North Carolina - SCORES
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Pittsburgh, Ursinus, Penn @ Towson- SCORES - Stream

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – UW-Eau Claire @ UW-Stout - SCORES - Stream

7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Gustavus Adolphus @ UW-La Crosse - Stream

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Perfect 10 Challenge (Oklahoma, Denver, George Washington, Utah State) - SCORES - TV: Fox Sports Whatever

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Winona State @ Illinois State
8:00 ET/5:30 PT – IGI Chicago Style (Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Temple, Alaska) - FLOG

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – Alabama @ Auburn - SCORES - SECN

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU, Sacramento State @ Southern Utah - SCORES - Stream

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Minnesota @ Nebraska - SCORES

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – Boise State @ San Jose State - SCORES - Stream
10:00 ET/7:00 PT – UC Davis @ Seattle Pacific - SCORES - Stream  

 Week 5 rankings

 

Florida returns home. Place your bets for the number of 10s now.

The Weekend Plans – February 12-15

Saturday night meets? What, do they think we all have no lives? Oh wait, that is correct.

Top 25 schedule

Friday, February 12

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [9] Arkansas @ [2] Florida

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [15] Missouri @ [25] Kentucky

8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Perfect 10 Challenge - [1] Oklahoma, [12] Denver, [17] George Washington, Utah State

8:30 ET/5:30 PT – [4] Alabama @ [8] Auburn

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – BYU, Sacramento State @ [21] Southern Utah

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [18] Minnesota @ [14] Nebraska

10:00 ET/7:00 PT – [10] Boise State @ San Jose State

Saturday, February 13

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [5] LSU @ [11] Georgia

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Penn State @ [23] Ohio State

5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Iowa @ [20] Illinois

7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Southern Connecticut @ [22] New Hampshire

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Washington @ [6] Utah

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [13] Stanford @ Arizona

11:00 ET/8:00 PT – [16] Oregon State @ [7] UCLA

Sunday, February 14

1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [25] Kentucky, Lindenwood, Kent State @ Ball State

2:00 ET/11:00 PT – Michigan State @ [3] Michigan

4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [24] West Virginia @ [4] Alabama

Monday, February 15

9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [19] Cal @ Arizona State

Live blogging
Friday as usual, probably with special attention to the Perfect 10 Challenge since I've seen so much of the SEC this year and less of Denver and GW. Saturday is also sort of making Friday look like an idiot this week, so I'll be all over that with LSU/Georgia and then again later for the glut of Pac-12 action. It'll get crazy. Sit back and let the insanity wash over you like a fine breeze or the knowledge of your own insignificance.

Friday
-The most competitive meets on Friday will probably end up being Missouri/Kentucky and Minnesota/Nebraska. The higher-ranked team will be favored in both, but upset potential exists. I'm particularly curious to see how Missouri fares away from home after that unexpectedly huge score last weekend. The next away meet is always the best test of how realistic home scores are.

-Among the big girls, Alabama against Auburn is the showcase on Friday. Apparently, this is kind of a rivalry or something, but in spite of meeting three times last season and this already being the second meeting of 2016, Auburn is still yet to record a victory against Alabama since turning good. At home and coming off a season-high, this is the best chance they'll have. That said, Alabama should win the meet and is the better team on every event, but that doesn't mean it will be a blowout. The Tide has displayed inconsistency this season, and while there haven't been any implosions since the loss to Arkansas, counting medium mistakes or weak landings has become commonplace, including on two of the four events in the last meet. Relying on those mistakes will be Auburn's hope.

Alabama has two meets this weekend, so I wouldn't necessarily expect to get any answers about postseason lineups quite yet. Dana has been jumbling people all over the place and will likely do the same this time in order to keep everyone relatively rested and avoid over-pressing the fragile ones. I would bet on more depth exploration for the time being.

We should also be on Beers Watch 2016, not just because it's important to start drinking during beam but because even though Lauren Beers has competed a remarkable amount for someone who spent the preseason in several pieces in a shoebox, she has been very up-and-down, occasionally starting to look like herself and then immediately falling a bunch of times. How much will they push her in a double-meet weekend, and will we see GoodBeers or DarthBeers?

Auburn Regional Preview

Alabama and Auburn. Reunited and it feels like we just did this twice. In the first meeting this season, at Alabama, the Tide won by 0.500. In the second meeting, at a neutral-ish site in Birmingham, the Tide won by 0.125. Auburn is getting closer. So, third time's the charm? Or something? It doesn't really matter as long as both finish in the top two, but winning this regional would be a big old deal for Auburn, especially since Alabama is coming off that SEC title.

Competing teams (starting event)
[5] Alabama (bars)
[8] Auburn (bye before bars)
[17] Minnesota (beam)
[23] Iowa (bye before floor)
[30] Maryland (vault)
[31] George Washington (floor)

Competing individuals are from North Carolina (Morgan Lane - AA; Haley Watts - AA; Kaitlynn Hedelund - bars), William & Mary (Brittany Stover - AA; Larson Lasek - AA; Maggie Lundeen - floor), and Towson (Tyra McKellar - AA; Katie Sassa - vault; Lauren Ross - beam).

Alabama and Auburn


It should be Alabama and Auburn. We've got some quality Big Ten challenges in this regional, but Auburn being the host just reinforces that edge over the other teams and makes it more difficult for anyone else to break in. Even at SECs, Auburn was just OK until a strong beam performance in the last rotation, but the team total was still a 196.925, which is higher than the season high of any of the other four teams in this regional. When I did the regional scoring comparison, Alabama and Auburn finished in the top two of every single category. They certainly have the inside track.

Alabama erased some question marks by winning SECs and managed to remind us all that this is not a team to relegate to afterthought, maybe-next-year status. They executed a comfortable and consistent meet, recording ten scores of 9.9+ and establishing themselves as the team that's going to hit when everything else is going wrong. But at the same time, everything else going wrong is what gave Alabama the title. Florida hits beam, and that meet isn't close, which should still be cause for concern for every other team. At this point, Alabama seems an extremely easy choice to make it through this regional (right now looking among the least likely teams to have a sudden meltdown—I know, kiss of death) and a logical, sane pick to qualify to Super Six as well. But do I see Alabama as a national title contender? Not yet. 

It's not about one big area to work on for Alabama, though I do think the lack of big scores in the bars lineup will be an obstacle (and makes getting a hit routine from Kaitlyn Clark much more important because she can be that big score). It's about getting 9.950s out of every single person who is capable of them. Alabama just does not have as many possible 9.950s as the other top contenders, so the ones that do potentially exist (for instance, Clark, Williams, Beers on vault, Sims and Beers on floor), have to be huge scores every single time. Right now, I have the sense that Alabama could go into Super Six, hit a completely solid meet with no significant errors, and finish four tenths behind the winner, simply from getting stuck in the good 9.875s instead of the great 9.950s.



As for Auburn, this is your chance. You need to take it. Auburn hasn't been to nationals since 2003, but this year's group has a good argument as the best team Auburn has ever produced (Auburn did finish 5th in 1993, but the amount I could tell you about that team is encapsulated by this ellipsis...). Plus, this is a home regional. You're not getting a better opportunity. You need to make nationals. The home scores this year are cause for comfort for Auburn fans, or just interested onlookers who think it would be nice if Auburn finally made it back to nationals. Auburn has gone over 197 in four of the five home meets this year, featuring that program-high 197.750 against Georgia.