Alabama and Auburn. Reunited and it feels like we just did this twice. In the first meeting this season, at Alabama, the Tide won by 0.500. In the second meeting, at a neutral-ish site in Birmingham, the Tide won by 0.125. Auburn is getting closer. So, third time's the charm? Or something? It doesn't really matter as long as both finish in the top two, but winning this regional would be a big old deal for Auburn, especially since Alabama is coming off that SEC title.
Competing teams (starting event)
[5] Alabama (bars)
[8] Auburn (bye before bars)
[17] Minnesota (beam)
[23] Iowa (bye before floor)
[30] Maryland (vault)
[31] George Washington (floor)
Competing individuals are from North Carolina (Morgan Lane - AA; Haley Watts - AA; Kaitlynn Hedelund - bars), William & Mary (Brittany Stover - AA; Larson Lasek - AA; Maggie Lundeen - floor), and Towson (Tyra McKellar - AA; Katie Sassa - vault; Lauren Ross - beam).
Alabama and Auburn
It should be Alabama and Auburn. We've got some quality Big Ten challenges in this regional, but Auburn being the host just reinforces that edge over the other teams and makes it more difficult for anyone else to break in. Even at SECs, Auburn was just OK until a strong beam performance in the last rotation, but the team total was still a 196.925, which is higher than the season high of any of the other four teams in this regional. When I did the regional scoring comparison, Alabama and Auburn finished in the top two of every single category. They certainly have the inside track.
Alabama erased some question marks by winning SECs and managed to remind us all that this is not a team to relegate to afterthought, maybe-next-year status. They executed a comfortable and consistent meet, recording ten scores of 9.9+ and establishing themselves as the team that's going to hit when everything else is going wrong. But at the same time, everything else going wrong is what gave Alabama the title. Florida hits beam, and that meet isn't close, which should still be cause for concern for every other team. At this point, Alabama seems an extremely easy choice to make it through this regional (right now looking among the least likely teams to have a sudden meltdown—I know, kiss of death) and a logical, sane pick to qualify to Super Six as well. But do I see Alabama as a national title contender? Not yet.
It's not about one big area to work on for Alabama, though I do think the lack of big scores in the bars lineup will be an obstacle (and makes getting a hit routine from Kaitlyn Clark much more important because she can be that big score). It's about getting 9.950s out of every single person who is capable of them. Alabama just does not have as many possible 9.950s as the other top contenders, so the ones that do potentially exist (for instance, Clark, Williams, Beers on vault, Sims and Beers on floor), have to be huge scores every single time. Right now, I have the sense that Alabama could go into Super Six, hit a completely solid meet with no significant errors, and finish four tenths behind the winner, simply from getting stuck in the good 9.875s instead of the great 9.950s.
As for Auburn, this is your chance. You need to take it. Auburn hasn't been to nationals since 2003, but this year's group has a good argument as the best team Auburn has ever produced (Auburn did finish 5th in 1993, but the amount I could tell you about that team is encapsulated by this ellipsis...). Plus, this is a home regional. You're not getting a better opportunity. You need to make nationals. The home scores this year are cause for comfort for Auburn fans, or just interested onlookers who think it would be nice if Auburn finally made it back to nationals. Auburn has gone over 197 in four of the five home meets this year, featuring that program-high 197.750 against Georgia.
Showing posts with label Maryland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maryland. Show all posts
April 1, 2015
March 29, 2014
University Park, PA Regional Preview
This marks our first weekend without gymnastics since December. What are we even supposed to do with ourselves? Socialize with people? About things? Address responsibilities? Guh. Incorrect. Instead, let's emotionally prepare ourselves for next Saturday, my favorite day of the gymnastics year, by breaking down each regional. Good idea? I think so. I'll begin with the #1 seed Florida Gators and the Penn State Regional beginning at 4ET/1PT.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Florida (bye before bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before floor)
[15] Penn State (vault)
[23] New Hampshire (floor)
[29] Kentucky (bars)
[35] Maryland (beam)
Competing individuals are from Brown (Diana Walters, Caroline Morant, Michelle Schnayder), Pittsburgh (Brittney Harris, Maebelle Pacheco - vault, Katie O'Rourke - beam and floor), Bridgeport (Lissette La Fex), and Cornell (Melanie Jorgensen - bars).
The Favorite
Another year, another #1 Florida team. The 2014 season marks the fourth consecutive time Florida has entered regionals as the #1 overall team in the country. Aside from the near-disaster beamtastrophe in 2011 after which the team just barely squeaked through by .025, Florida has worn the #1 crown comfortably at regionals, and this competition should be no exception. Sure, I could try to concoct possible scenarios where Florida counts 11 beam falls and gets into trouble, but that's a waste. The Gators should advance by a hefty margin and probably won't garner that much attention on the day. We'll all be too focused on the legitimate, clawing fights for nationals spots.
There will be plenty of time to talk about Florida in the weeks leading up to nationals, but I still have an area or two I want to keep an eye on as we gauge whether the Gators can repeat as champions, especially coming off the loss at SECs. Florida didn't have huge problems in that competition, but they showed some ragged qualities and uncharacteristic mistakes here and there that indicated a step down in quality from the stellar performances they had leading up to SECs. Claire Boyce falling on a rudi, Bridgey going OOB in the deciding routine, a couple lackluster landings on beam dismounts, these were unexpected errors, but not trends. It's not really a thing until it happens again. But, if there's one area I do want to watch for Florida at regionals, it's vault and the progression of those landings. They're still missing sticks and giving away tenths in most of those routines, and that's been happening fairly frequently.
Now, we saw the exact same thing last year, with Florida looking predominately blah in the vault landing department at SECs and then bringing themselves into line after that. By Super Six, Florida had far and away the best vault landings of any team. They should pull things together again this year, but this Florida vault team is not as strong as last year's group, so it will be interesting to see if they can progress in the same way. They can't be in a position of giving up multiple tenths to Alabama and LSU on vault like they did at SECs.
But really, let's get to the main story of this regional.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Florida (bye before bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before floor)
[15] Penn State (vault)
[23] New Hampshire (floor)
[29] Kentucky (bars)
[35] Maryland (beam)
Competing individuals are from Brown (Diana Walters, Caroline Morant, Michelle Schnayder), Pittsburgh (Brittney Harris, Maebelle Pacheco - vault, Katie O'Rourke - beam and floor), Bridgeport (Lissette La Fex), and Cornell (Melanie Jorgensen - bars).
The Favorite
Another year, another #1 Florida team. The 2014 season marks the fourth consecutive time Florida has entered regionals as the #1 overall team in the country. Aside from the near-disaster beamtastrophe in 2011 after which the team just barely squeaked through by .025, Florida has worn the #1 crown comfortably at regionals, and this competition should be no exception. Sure, I could try to concoct possible scenarios where Florida counts 11 beam falls and gets into trouble, but that's a waste. The Gators should advance by a hefty margin and probably won't garner that much attention on the day. We'll all be too focused on the legitimate, clawing fights for nationals spots.
There will be plenty of time to talk about Florida in the weeks leading up to nationals, but I still have an area or two I want to keep an eye on as we gauge whether the Gators can repeat as champions, especially coming off the loss at SECs. Florida didn't have huge problems in that competition, but they showed some ragged qualities and uncharacteristic mistakes here and there that indicated a step down in quality from the stellar performances they had leading up to SECs. Claire Boyce falling on a rudi, Bridgey going OOB in the deciding routine, a couple lackluster landings on beam dismounts, these were unexpected errors, but not trends. It's not really a thing until it happens again. But, if there's one area I do want to watch for Florida at regionals, it's vault and the progression of those landings. They're still missing sticks and giving away tenths in most of those routines, and that's been happening fairly frequently.
Now, we saw the exact same thing last year, with Florida looking predominately blah in the vault landing department at SECs and then bringing themselves into line after that. By Super Six, Florida had far and away the best vault landings of any team. They should pull things together again this year, but this Florida vault team is not as strong as last year's group, so it will be interesting to see if they can progress in the same way. They can't be in a position of giving up multiple tenths to Alabama and LSU on vault like they did at SECs.
But really, let's get to the main story of this regional.
March 31, 2013
Gainesville Regional Preview
Throughout the week, I will be breaking down each of the regional championships, giving a good hard stare to the teams expected to advance as well as the teams that could conceivably make things a little more interesting than they were last year. Let's begin with our #1 seed, the Florida Gators, and their home regional in Gainesville, Florida.
Competing teams (starting event):
[1] Florida (vault)
[12] Minnesota (bye before bars)
[13] Auburn (bye before floor)
[24] Maryland (floor)
[29] Bridgeport (bars)
[36] Pittsburgh (beam)
The Favorite:
Once again, the Florida Gators enter the regional championships as the #1 team, and while any person with eyes and a basic understanding of the concept of gymnastics would consider them a lock to advance from any of the regional locations, it would take an upset of downright comical proportions to knock them out their home regional. We're just two years removed from Florida's near disaster of a 2011 regional, but this team is notably more secure than that one and also scores at such stratospheric levels that it could withstand even that kind of catastrophe and still advance.
Competing teams (starting event):
[1] Florida (vault)
[12] Minnesota (bye before bars)
[13] Auburn (bye before floor)
[24] Maryland (floor)
[29] Bridgeport (bars)
[36] Pittsburgh (beam)
The Favorite:
Once again, the Florida Gators enter the regional championships as the #1 team, and while any person with eyes and a basic understanding of the concept of gymnastics would consider them a lock to advance from any of the regional locations, it would take an upset of downright comical proportions to knock them out their home regional. We're just two years removed from Florida's near disaster of a 2011 regional, but this team is notably more secure than that one and also scores at such stratospheric levels that it could withstand even that kind of catastrophe and still advance.
April 4, 2012
Fayetteville Regional Preview
Our third Regional will take place at the University of Arkansas at 5:00 ET / 2:00 PT on Saturday and will feature [3] UCLA, [10] Arkansas, [15] Boise State, [19] Missouri, [29] New Hampshire, and [34] Maryland.
The Favorite:
Like Florida and Oklahoma, the UCLA Bruins are the clear favorite to win this Regional, and I expect them to have little trouble advancing here. Aside from the general narrative that UCLA teams peak beginning at Regionals, this UCLA team is much more secure across the apparatuses than some of the recent teams, which is the primary consideration for a top team advancing to Nationals. A great performance isn't really necessary, as we saw at Pac-12s. This team had disasters from Peszek on bars and Courtney on beam and did not succumb to having to count a low score and didn't let it deflate the overall performance (which was adequate but lackluster both before and after the falls). At this point, UCLA is a near guarantee for a 49.450+ on vault, and so a parade of 9.850s on the other events is all they'll need to secure a top two finish.
As is always the case with UCLA teams, even though it is April, I still have multiple questions about the lineups. One of the major questions regards Kaelie Baer and where she fits in. She's been the leadoff on vault all season, but in my mind the best vault lineup would be Hopfner-Hibbs, Larson, Peszek, Courtney, Frattone, and Zamarripa. So, does Val make the change or keep Baer in that position? Also, Courtney was put into Baer's spot on beam at Pac-12s but had a disaster, so does Baer get the spot back? To me, it's a question of attitude. Baer is perhaps the safer choice but doesn't have a huge scoring potential.
We've become so used to talking about beam when it comes to UCLA, but I actually have confidence in the primary five to hit and avoid counting a fall. In evaluating the prospects for Nationals, the most tenuous apparatus for the Bruins is bars. This year should have been an improvement on that event, but with Wong's injury and Whitcomb's injury/handstands/disappearance, we've seen little progress at all. No one has been great so far, and this group is too capable of slogging along for 9.825s, which is fine for now but won't be in Duluth. This dismounts in particular need to come together because many were not even close to sticking at Pac-12s.
The Favorite:
Like Florida and Oklahoma, the UCLA Bruins are the clear favorite to win this Regional, and I expect them to have little trouble advancing here. Aside from the general narrative that UCLA teams peak beginning at Regionals, this UCLA team is much more secure across the apparatuses than some of the recent teams, which is the primary consideration for a top team advancing to Nationals. A great performance isn't really necessary, as we saw at Pac-12s. This team had disasters from Peszek on bars and Courtney on beam and did not succumb to having to count a low score and didn't let it deflate the overall performance (which was adequate but lackluster both before and after the falls). At this point, UCLA is a near guarantee for a 49.450+ on vault, and so a parade of 9.850s on the other events is all they'll need to secure a top two finish.
As is always the case with UCLA teams, even though it is April, I still have multiple questions about the lineups. One of the major questions regards Kaelie Baer and where she fits in. She's been the leadoff on vault all season, but in my mind the best vault lineup would be Hopfner-Hibbs, Larson, Peszek, Courtney, Frattone, and Zamarripa. So, does Val make the change or keep Baer in that position? Also, Courtney was put into Baer's spot on beam at Pac-12s but had a disaster, so does Baer get the spot back? To me, it's a question of attitude. Baer is perhaps the safer choice but doesn't have a huge scoring potential.
We've become so used to talking about beam when it comes to UCLA, but I actually have confidence in the primary five to hit and avoid counting a fall. In evaluating the prospects for Nationals, the most tenuous apparatus for the Bruins is bars. This year should have been an improvement on that event, but with Wong's injury and Whitcomb's injury/handstands/disappearance, we've seen little progress at all. No one has been great so far, and this group is too capable of slogging along for 9.825s, which is fine for now but won't be in Duluth. This dismounts in particular need to come together because many were not even close to sticking at Pac-12s.
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