While several of the regionals this year could produce an unexpected nationals qualifier that we will pretend signals the beginning of a new era until next season when everything returns to normal, the most exciting changing of the guard will happen in Alabama. Though some of the challengers elsewhere, like Denver and Minnesota, haven't qualified to nationals for a few years, the teams in this regional have been stranded in the desert for much, much longer. Cal has been absent from the national championship since 1992, and Boise State and Kentucky have been absent since always. In fact, with three all-time nationals appearances, #5 seed West Virginia is the second-most accomplished team in the competition.
Competing teams (starting event)
[4] Alabama (bye before bars)
[10] Cal (beam)
[15] Boise State (floor)
[21] Kentucky (bye before floor)
[26] West Virginia (bars)
[34] Bowling Green (vault)
Competing individuals
SEMO (Alexis Brawner – AA; Lauren Israel – AA; McKinzie Jones – FX)
Northern Illinois (Andie Van Voorhis – VT; Jamyra Carter – UB; Lauren Africano – UB; Megan Greenfield – BB)
Arizona State (Allie Salas – AA; Taylor Allex – VT, FX)
Illinois-Chicago (Mikailla Northern – AA)
Illinois State (Amanda Mohler – BB)
The favorite – Alabama
Alabama is Alabama. Competing at home against a relatively unheralded squadron of challengers and coming off an impressive second-place showing at SECs should really be all we need to know about Alabama's qualification outlook. Coleman may no longer the impenetrable home fortress it once was, now the site of previously unheard of losses to LSU and Arkansas, but the idea of Alabama getting upset at home by two whole teams in this meet is difficult to fathom.
Unsurprisingly, Alabama had its best meet of the season at SECs, which happened to coincide with actually getting all the good people in the lineups simultaneously for the first time. Amazing how that works out. Winston returned on three events, all the top-scoring floor workers competed, and Bresette was able to show her Omelianchik, which is a higher-scoring option than her full. All of this combined to make Alabama look like a peer of Oklahoma, Florida, and LSU in the title race rather than the leader of the challenging pack. These lineups still don't look fully finalized (you can't quit depth exploration cold turkey), as I'd still perhaps like to see Winston vaulting and, critically, that was not the highest-scoring beam lineup Alabama could put out. Sanders did an excellent job of suddenly being a gymnast now, but hit routines from Beers and Bailey are going to score higher than what she (and potentially Brannan) can bring.
It's an issue of hitting (both Bailey and Beers fell the week before), but if the coaches feel comfortable putting Bailey and Beers in the lineup, this team looks more formidable and closer to 198. If not, Alabama may be giving up a crucial tenth or two on beam, the rotation that knocked them down below Florida's at SECs.
The fight – Cal v. Boise State
This meet represents a brand new phenomenon for Cal. We've seen Cal perform well in significant meets against strong teams over the last three seasons, but for the first time I can remember, Cal will enter a significant meet not as an upstart, or an underdog, or a spoiler, or a sentimental favorite but as a favorite. Cal should finish second here and should qualify along with Alabama. Not doing so would be a disappointing result given the wonderful opportunity to make nationals presented before them. Welcome to expectations, Cal. It's nice to have you here.
That's not to say it's going to be a walk. Boise State has been in many ways the surprise of the season (after being the punchline of the preseason when one coach voted BSU #1), scoring a 197.025 at conference championships—at home—which bested the 196.725 Cal put up at Pac-12s. Boise State does, however, remain the least proven entity among the contending teams, having gone the whole season without facing any school seeded 1-3 in any of the regionals. We don't really know how these routines are going to be evaluated when Boise State is suddenly not the biggest and the best in the arena for the first time. The Broncos' last challenging road meet also came at Alabama, in 2015, when they did prove quite competitive through three events and were on high-196 pace until a floor meltdown.
Showing posts with label Kentucky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky. Show all posts
March 29, 2016
March 18, 2016
SEC Championship Preview
Saturday 3/19
Afternoon session 2:00 ET/11:00 PT
Evening session 6:00 ET/3:00 PT
It's tomorrow! Everything starts very early, with Jesolo getting underway even before the first session of Big Tens. It'll be a huge day of live blogging and gymnastics watching, so we'll have to pace ourselves early. Don't waste your energy before the big-girl sessions begin.
Finally. After years of watching poky live score spreadsheet templates that didn't even update, followed by the recent generous bestowing of an internet stream, the SEC Championship will at last be broadcast live on actual televisions this year. Happy 1968, everyone!
In an attempt to make up for doing such a terrible job at this for so long, the SEC Network is whipping out all the bells and whistles this season, with a TV broadcast accompanied by each individual event streaming online, meaning we can make sure to watch all of Georgia's beam routines from behind our fingers while still getting the competition done in a cool two hours. I'm on board. The SEC Network is also really talking up the hip new quad-meet scoring interface it will debut (to the point where it better physically shoot candy and cheeseburgers out of the TV to live up to this), so I'm eager to see what that looks like. The SEC Net has done a very good job of displaying the scores and running totals in an unobtrusive manner so far, so there's reason for optimism.
NBC really needs to take notes on what the SEC Network does with live scoring heading into the Olympics. With an easy way to update live scores at the bottom of the screen, you don't need to watch Gabby do her grips for 25 minutes while waiting for the score. You can move on to other routines, and then display the score and real-time rankings as they come in. You know, actual development and innovation, not just MEANINGLESS TRIANGLES.
EVENING SESSION
Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
While we all roll our eyes every time an SEC coach says that winning the SEC Championship is harder than winning the national championship (it objectively isn't to anyone who thinks about it for literally one second), this is still a hell of a competition with a solid five teams realistically capable of a hearty 197. Given the scores we've seen this season, however, winning this title really should take a high 197, which probably precludes Auburn and Georgia unless it's a splatfest and they slide on through. Once again, we're looking at Florida, LSU, and Alabama.
Alabama won last season, taking advantage of a beam catastrophe from Florida and beam foreshadowing wobbles from LSU to dance to the top spot with a 197.5, and Alabama's totals so far this year indicate the need for something similar. Alabama has peaked at 197.5s while LSU has gone into the 197.9s and Florida into the 198s. But, if we correct for some silly scoring and for Alabama's epic depth exploration in every meet, there's probably not actually a whole fall worth of difference between these teams. While it will be tough for Alabama to match an ideal meet from LSU or Florida based on what we've seen, I'm not willing to write off the Tide quite yet. But between Florida and LSU? Take your pick. It will be close. Let's get into it.
Rotation 1: Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor
Event RQS for rotation 1
Auburn 49.435
Florida 49.390
LSU 49.370
Alabama 49.300
You'll notice something a bit unexpected in those RQSs in that they tell us Auburn should be leading after the first rotation. It could happen because of floor reasons, but I wouldn't bet on it. Although for Auburn, it's absolutely necessary if a title challenge is in play. While Atkinson's is a definite 9.9+ routine (along with occasionally Rott, Demers, and Hlawek), the high floor RQSs across the conference and country reflect loose end-of-meet scoring rather than significant supremacy over the quality of other teams on other events. It will be tough to replicate in this context, and Auburn taking a first-rotation lead would also require a couple other teams under-performing early.
This first event is also critical for LSU to establish a high-scoring pace since bars is their weakest event (the RQS is lower on beam, but beam). Finnegan is obviously a star, and the return of Priessman ups the scoring potential, but a couple 9.800s with form breaks and lower amplitude at the beginning of the lineup put LSU's bars behind those of Florida. If LSU can get Zamardi, Finnegan, Priessman, Wyrick, and Hambrick all in the lineup at the same time, however, that should minimize counting any low scores and bolster what could be a flat event, but those five have not actually been in the same lineup yet this season. Judging by a high 197 standard, LSU must go into the 49.4s on bars to avoid falling off the pace.
Afternoon session 2:00 ET/11:00 PT
Evening session 6:00 ET/3:00 PT
It's tomorrow! Everything starts very early, with Jesolo getting underway even before the first session of Big Tens. It'll be a huge day of live blogging and gymnastics watching, so we'll have to pace ourselves early. Don't waste your energy before the big-girl sessions begin.
Finally. After years of watching poky live score spreadsheet templates that didn't even update, followed by the recent generous bestowing of an internet stream, the SEC Championship will at last be broadcast live on actual televisions this year. Happy 1968, everyone!
In an attempt to make up for doing such a terrible job at this for so long, the SEC Network is whipping out all the bells and whistles this season, with a TV broadcast accompanied by each individual event streaming online, meaning we can make sure to watch all of Georgia's beam routines from behind our fingers while still getting the competition done in a cool two hours. I'm on board. The SEC Network is also really talking up the hip new quad-meet scoring interface it will debut (to the point where it better physically shoot candy and cheeseburgers out of the TV to live up to this), so I'm eager to see what that looks like. The SEC Net has done a very good job of displaying the scores and running totals in an unobtrusive manner so far, so there's reason for optimism.
NBC really needs to take notes on what the SEC Network does with live scoring heading into the Olympics. With an easy way to update live scores at the bottom of the screen, you don't need to watch Gabby do her grips for 25 minutes while waiting for the score. You can move on to other routines, and then display the score and real-time rankings as they come in. You know, actual development and innovation, not just MEANINGLESS TRIANGLES.
EVENING SESSION
Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
While we all roll our eyes every time an SEC coach says that winning the SEC Championship is harder than winning the national championship (it objectively isn't to anyone who thinks about it for literally one second), this is still a hell of a competition with a solid five teams realistically capable of a hearty 197. Given the scores we've seen this season, however, winning this title really should take a high 197, which probably precludes Auburn and Georgia unless it's a splatfest and they slide on through. Once again, we're looking at Florida, LSU, and Alabama.
Alabama won last season, taking advantage of a beam catastrophe from Florida and beam foreshadowing wobbles from LSU to dance to the top spot with a 197.5, and Alabama's totals so far this year indicate the need for something similar. Alabama has peaked at 197.5s while LSU has gone into the 197.9s and Florida into the 198s. But, if we correct for some silly scoring and for Alabama's epic depth exploration in every meet, there's probably not actually a whole fall worth of difference between these teams. While it will be tough for Alabama to match an ideal meet from LSU or Florida based on what we've seen, I'm not willing to write off the Tide quite yet. But between Florida and LSU? Take your pick. It will be close. Let's get into it.
Rotation 1: Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor
Event RQS for rotation 1
Auburn 49.435
Florida 49.390
LSU 49.370
Alabama 49.300
You'll notice something a bit unexpected in those RQSs in that they tell us Auburn should be leading after the first rotation. It could happen because of floor reasons, but I wouldn't bet on it. Although for Auburn, it's absolutely necessary if a title challenge is in play. While Atkinson's is a definite 9.9+ routine (along with occasionally Rott, Demers, and Hlawek), the high floor RQSs across the conference and country reflect loose end-of-meet scoring rather than significant supremacy over the quality of other teams on other events. It will be tough to replicate in this context, and Auburn taking a first-rotation lead would also require a couple other teams under-performing early.
This first event is also critical for LSU to establish a high-scoring pace since bars is their weakest event (the RQS is lower on beam, but beam). Finnegan is obviously a star, and the return of Priessman ups the scoring potential, but a couple 9.800s with form breaks and lower amplitude at the beginning of the lineup put LSU's bars behind those of Florida. If LSU can get Zamardi, Finnegan, Priessman, Wyrick, and Hambrick all in the lineup at the same time, however, that should minimize counting any low scores and bolster what could be a flat event, but those five have not actually been in the same lineup yet this season. Judging by a high 197 standard, LSU must go into the 49.4s on bars to avoid falling off the pace.
January 8, 2016
First Friday Live Blog – It's All Downhill From Here
Friday, January 8
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ [21] Kentucky - SCORES - SECN Stream
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Central Michigan, UW-Whitewater, Winona State @ UW-Eau Claire
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Lindenwood @ SEMO - SCORES
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Florida @ Texas Woman’s - SCORES - Flogymnastics Pro stream
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – BYU @ [4] Utah - SCORES - TV: Pac-12 Network
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Michigan State @ [18] Arizona - SCORES - TV: Pac-12 Network Arizona
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [15] Illinois @ [23] Missouri - SCORES - SECN Stream
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Centenary @ Utah State
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [11] Nebraska, Bowling Green @ Arizona State - SCORES - Pac-12 Stream
Preseason rankings
This is how everything stands before anything stands. So let's change it up.
I'll be here starting at 7 ET/4 PT to have all kinds of feelings. At least three of them. Are there more than three feelings?
I'll be here starting at 7 ET/4 PT to have all kinds of feelings. At least three of them. Are there more than three feelings?
April 2, 2015
Columbus Regional Preview
On to the last one! Ah, the 6-7 regional. Doesn't it seem like UCLA and Michigan are always in this regional? It hasn't been this exact setup, but either UCLA or Michigan has been in the 6th seed's regional every year since 2010, which is as far back as I have the energy to look. Weird. Meaningless, but weird. It's like their home. And they both should feel pretty comfortable in this competition. This regional is right in the heart of the busiest part of Saturday, beginning at 6:00 ET/3:00 PT, so UCLA and Michigan will have to put together some really good catastrophes to be sure to garner our attention over three other simultaneous meets. UCLA, I believe in you.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Michigan (bars)
[7] UCLA (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (beam)
Central Michigan (bye before floor)
Kentucky (vault)
Ohio State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Western Michigan (Anna Corbett - AA; Kelsey Hood - AA; Jessi Buis - vault; Jessie Peszek - bars), Eastern Michigan (Anna Willette - AA; Carrina Lo Bello - AA), Bowling Green (Alyssa Nocella - AA), and Kent State (Rachel Stypinski - beam, floor).
Michigan and UCLA
I've been waiting to say that I was wrong about Michigan until the important meets actually happen, but I'm pretty sure I was wrong about Michigan. I thought this would be a ranked-10th, just-happy-to-make-nationals kind of season, but it has been much better than that and the expectations should be much higher than that. Michigan has been the most reliable and consistent team in the NCAA this year and has the distinct honor of being the only team to have scored a 49 on beam in every single meet. Consider my jaw on the floor, especially given the way beam has gone the last couple seasons, keeping them out of Super Six for two straight years and keeping them out of nationals the year before. It hasn't been pretty. Now it's pretty! Or at least safe!
And now, as if I haven't sufficiently jinxed this team enough, qualification should be a very comfortable assignment. Michigan's low this season is a 196.600, and that score is almost always good enough to make it out of regionals. I expect a solid 197. The more interesting thing for the Wolverines right now (as long as there are no falls on Saturday...), is where they stand in the Super Six race. Right now, they're 6th in the country and seeded to make the final, which would be a huge accomplishment, but that spot seems so wildly up for grabs. Among these contending teams from #6 on downward, there's very little difference at the moment, so hopefully we'll learn a little bit more about which teams have the most Super Six in them based on these regional performances. We'll get a pretty good sense of it by directly comparing Michigan and UCLA here.
In the race to win this regional, it's going to be Michigan's solidity against UCLA's star power. UCLA has more potential 9.950s. If we take the season as a whole, UCLA has recorded 26 9.950s to Michigan's 15, and the two teams that have competed in the same number of meets and recorded nearly the same RQS. Michigan's scores tend to be more even, while UCLA tends to ride the huge potential at the end of the lineups. For the Bruins to come out on top in this meet, those stars will have to show up, especially on beam and bars. If the big, bad beam trio hits to capability, Michigan doesn't have the scores to match. That's UCLA's best opportunity to open up a lead. On bars, UCLA is very reliant on Peng and Peszek to hit and stick to get the scores. Bars should be the most interesting event comparison (and we'll get it right at the start of the meet) because Michigan has the stronger comprehensive lineup, while UCLA anchors with the two biggest potential bars scores in the regional, or two of the three with all deference to Brianna Brown. Peng and Peszek can get those 9.950s.
Competing teams (starting event)
[6] Michigan (bars)
[7] UCLA (bye before bars)
[18] Arizona (beam)
Central Michigan (bye before floor)
Kentucky (vault)
Ohio State (floor)
Competing individuals are from Western Michigan (Anna Corbett - AA; Kelsey Hood - AA; Jessi Buis - vault; Jessie Peszek - bars), Eastern Michigan (Anna Willette - AA; Carrina Lo Bello - AA), Bowling Green (Alyssa Nocella - AA), and Kent State (Rachel Stypinski - beam, floor).
Michigan and UCLA
I've been waiting to say that I was wrong about Michigan until the important meets actually happen, but I'm pretty sure I was wrong about Michigan. I thought this would be a ranked-10th, just-happy-to-make-nationals kind of season, but it has been much better than that and the expectations should be much higher than that. Michigan has been the most reliable and consistent team in the NCAA this year and has the distinct honor of being the only team to have scored a 49 on beam in every single meet. Consider my jaw on the floor, especially given the way beam has gone the last couple seasons, keeping them out of Super Six for two straight years and keeping them out of nationals the year before. It hasn't been pretty. Now it's pretty! Or at least safe!
And now, as if I haven't sufficiently jinxed this team enough, qualification should be a very comfortable assignment. Michigan's low this season is a 196.600, and that score is almost always good enough to make it out of regionals. I expect a solid 197. The more interesting thing for the Wolverines right now (as long as there are no falls on Saturday...), is where they stand in the Super Six race. Right now, they're 6th in the country and seeded to make the final, which would be a huge accomplishment, but that spot seems so wildly up for grabs. Among these contending teams from #6 on downward, there's very little difference at the moment, so hopefully we'll learn a little bit more about which teams have the most Super Six in them based on these regional performances. We'll get a pretty good sense of it by directly comparing Michigan and UCLA here.
In the race to win this regional, it's going to be Michigan's solidity against UCLA's star power. UCLA has more potential 9.950s. If we take the season as a whole, UCLA has recorded 26 9.950s to Michigan's 15, and the two teams that have competed in the same number of meets and recorded nearly the same RQS. Michigan's scores tend to be more even, while UCLA tends to ride the huge potential at the end of the lineups. For the Bruins to come out on top in this meet, those stars will have to show up, especially on beam and bars. If the big, bad beam trio hits to capability, Michigan doesn't have the scores to match. That's UCLA's best opportunity to open up a lead. On bars, UCLA is very reliant on Peng and Peszek to hit and stick to get the scores. Bars should be the most interesting event comparison (and we'll get it right at the start of the meet) because Michigan has the stronger comprehensive lineup, while UCLA anchors with the two biggest potential bars scores in the regional, or two of the three with all deference to Brianna Brown. Peng and Peszek can get those 9.950s.
March 20, 2015
SEC Championship Preview
Heads up. The conference championships are tomorrow, and things get started earlier than normal with the first session of Big Tens beginning at 11:30 ET. I'll be popping in and out blogging throughout the day, paying special attention to the evening sessions from Pac-12s and SECs. Can you believe we actually get to watch the SEC Championship? Live. With our eyes. It's a brand new world.
So let's get right to what we'll be looking at tomorrow using our eye holes. As with the Pac-12, I'll break the competition down by session because that's an organizing principle that helps make things less rambling (allegedly), but keep in mind as I talk about the top-ranked teams that Georgia is also a team. Even though they're in the day session, they're right in this thing for a good score and a competitive finish. Adhering to the seedings and finishing 5th would be a disappointing result, but the title race is likely to come down to the top three seeds, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. Although wouldn't it be the highlight of your life if Auburn won?
EVENING SESSION: Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
Florida enters as the top-ranked team and the easiest pick to win, but LSU does have a victory over Florida this year and is pretty much on par with the Gators in most areas, and probably stronger in a couple. The Sloan and Courville factors will be fascinating to watch. Courville has missed some serious time lately, but LSU needs her badly—especially on bars. Sloan is just trying to get back into the AA at the perfect time, but she still has some rust on beam and hasn't done floor yet. The fight will be to see which AA star is able to contribute more championship-caliber routines. That could be decisive given how evenly matched these teams are in so many areas. If you're suddenly missing a crucial 9.950 that you usually rely on, that's everything. Alabama should be able to put the pressure on both these teams and place well, but to actually win this thing, they'll have to step up the quality to a level we haven't seen yet. The capability is there, but winning may very well take a 197.900 or more, which Alabama hasn't brought this year, even at home. Let's get to it.
Rotation 1 (Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor)
As the top-ranked team, Florida gets the benefit of the best rotation order and should be able to take advantage of that for an early lead. If the Gators aren't winning after the first rotation, something will have gone wrong and we'll all be tittering with the excitement of things not going to plan. I love when things don't go to plan as long as they don't involve me. Florida has broken 49.500 in four of the last five meets, and that's the minimum level of scoring I expect in this meet from a lineup that has clearly improved over last year and ends with Baker, Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry. Hunter and McMurtry have to do poor vaults to go as low as 9.900, and while Florida does occasionally have a case of the bounce-a-thons (though mostly earlier in the season), they're also the team most likely to get a good vault score even without sitcking because those final four vaulters give away nothing in form, distance, amplitude etc. That's a tough group to match.
Alabama has the unfortunate task of starting on beam, not just because beam is a horror but because it's the hardest event to get a huge score on. That means even if they have a good rotation, they'll probably be starting from a hole. I really do enjoy this beam lineup and was pleased to see things finally come together in the most recent meet after too many consistency problems early in the year. If you haven't seen Keely McNeer do beam in a while, she's lovely and sets up the lineup perfectly for the dance-element clinic named Aja Sims and the classic bam-bam Bama routines from Williams, Beers, and Clark. Depending on how well they stick the parade of 1.5 dismounts, 49.4 is realistic. Overall, this beam rotation will give us a good sense of whether it's an Alabama day. If they get the scores on beam, they should be able to hang right with Florida and LSU for the next couple rotations on vault and floor and make a legitimate run at the title. But up until last weekend, Alabama had three consecutive meets of 49.225, and the competition here is too strong to get away with that kind of score. Suddenly you're three tenths behind and trying to make up ground against Bridget Sloan's bars and Jessie Jordan's beam, which is sort of a lost cause.
Like Alabama, LSU is in a major pressure situation in the first rotation because bars remains the big question-mark event. The performance in the most recent meet against Centenary was uncommonly rough and sorely lacked a dose of Courville, but it does highlight the fact that this rotation has the fewest likely 9.9s of all the LSU events. They'll need to use at least two of Gnat, Hambrick, and Savona, all of whom have made tremendous strides as bars workers in the last year or so, but bars is still not the ideal event for any of them. The lineup sometimes ends up being Courville and a lot of supporting 9.850s, which is good for a 49.3 but not the 49.450-49.500 that pretty much every rotation is going to need to score To get that big score, LSU needs to bring back those suck-it-because-we're-better-on-bars-than-you-think-we-are resentment sticks that so impressed everyone in the first meet of the season. For people like Jordan and Zamardi, that can turn their 9.850s into vital 9.900s. They need to do some anger bars.
The bars score is my primary hesitation in predicting LSU to win this championship. I'm worried the rotation will be a little flat. But if they do bring the sticks and shed those average scores, then I'm confident enough in the next three events to consider this meet completely even. At that point, it could just as easily go to LSU or Florida, and we'd be in for a real treat for three more rotations. Let's hope we get it. Question: if you're putting together that LSU bars lineup, do you go with Gnat or Hambrick?
Auburn is playing with the big girls now, so while Auburn has been amazing this season, we have to evaluate this team not just on the scale of their own improvement or capabilities but in comparison to the best teams in the conference. Auburn's floor is good. It can be a real asset, especially when Caitlin Atkinson is in the lineup and getting her 9.9s. I particularly appreciate the commitment to difficulty through most of the lineup coupled with the pragmatism to downgrade some of those piked full-ins to tucked in order to give away less in chest position and landing control. But at the same time, most of these floor routines are more 9.850 than 9.900, which becomes a consideration in a meet where 197.9 is the expectation and everyone will be shooting rainbows of 9.9s out of every orifice. It's a strange world where 9.850 is a score that can take you out of contention, but that's where we are. Floor 9.850s could keep them in the respectable low 197s instead of the rarefied high 197s. If Auburn is going to stay in the picture and not be the afterthought of the late session, that will require a couple 9.9s in the opening rotation.
So let's get right to what we'll be looking at tomorrow using our eye holes. As with the Pac-12, I'll break the competition down by session because that's an organizing principle that helps make things less rambling (allegedly), but keep in mind as I talk about the top-ranked teams that Georgia is also a team. Even though they're in the day session, they're right in this thing for a good score and a competitive finish. Adhering to the seedings and finishing 5th would be a disappointing result, but the title race is likely to come down to the top three seeds, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. Although wouldn't it be the highlight of your life if Auburn won?
EVENING SESSION: Florida, LSU, Alabama, Auburn
Florida enters as the top-ranked team and the easiest pick to win, but LSU does have a victory over Florida this year and is pretty much on par with the Gators in most areas, and probably stronger in a couple. The Sloan and Courville factors will be fascinating to watch. Courville has missed some serious time lately, but LSU needs her badly—especially on bars. Sloan is just trying to get back into the AA at the perfect time, but she still has some rust on beam and hasn't done floor yet. The fight will be to see which AA star is able to contribute more championship-caliber routines. That could be decisive given how evenly matched these teams are in so many areas. If you're suddenly missing a crucial 9.950 that you usually rely on, that's everything. Alabama should be able to put the pressure on both these teams and place well, but to actually win this thing, they'll have to step up the quality to a level we haven't seen yet. The capability is there, but winning may very well take a 197.900 or more, which Alabama hasn't brought this year, even at home. Let's get to it.
Rotation 1 (Florida vault, LSU bars, Alabama beam, Auburn floor)
As the top-ranked team, Florida gets the benefit of the best rotation order and should be able to take advantage of that for an early lead. If the Gators aren't winning after the first rotation, something will have gone wrong and we'll all be tittering with the excitement of things not going to plan. I love when things don't go to plan as long as they don't involve me. Florida has broken 49.500 in four of the last five meets, and that's the minimum level of scoring I expect in this meet from a lineup that has clearly improved over last year and ends with Baker, Sloan, Hunter, and McMurtry. Hunter and McMurtry have to do poor vaults to go as low as 9.900, and while Florida does occasionally have a case of the bounce-a-thons (though mostly earlier in the season), they're also the team most likely to get a good vault score even without sitcking because those final four vaulters give away nothing in form, distance, amplitude etc. That's a tough group to match.
Alabama has the unfortunate task of starting on beam, not just because beam is a horror but because it's the hardest event to get a huge score on. That means even if they have a good rotation, they'll probably be starting from a hole. I really do enjoy this beam lineup and was pleased to see things finally come together in the most recent meet after too many consistency problems early in the year. If you haven't seen Keely McNeer do beam in a while, she's lovely and sets up the lineup perfectly for the dance-element clinic named Aja Sims and the classic bam-bam Bama routines from Williams, Beers, and Clark. Depending on how well they stick the parade of 1.5 dismounts, 49.4 is realistic. Overall, this beam rotation will give us a good sense of whether it's an Alabama day. If they get the scores on beam, they should be able to hang right with Florida and LSU for the next couple rotations on vault and floor and make a legitimate run at the title. But up until last weekend, Alabama had three consecutive meets of 49.225, and the competition here is too strong to get away with that kind of score. Suddenly you're three tenths behind and trying to make up ground against Bridget Sloan's bars and Jessie Jordan's beam, which is sort of a lost cause.
Like Alabama, LSU is in a major pressure situation in the first rotation because bars remains the big question-mark event. The performance in the most recent meet against Centenary was uncommonly rough and sorely lacked a dose of Courville, but it does highlight the fact that this rotation has the fewest likely 9.9s of all the LSU events. They'll need to use at least two of Gnat, Hambrick, and Savona, all of whom have made tremendous strides as bars workers in the last year or so, but bars is still not the ideal event for any of them. The lineup sometimes ends up being Courville and a lot of supporting 9.850s, which is good for a 49.3 but not the 49.450-49.500 that pretty much every rotation is going to need to score To get that big score, LSU needs to bring back those suck-it-because-we're-better-on-bars-than-you-think-we-are resentment sticks that so impressed everyone in the first meet of the season. For people like Jordan and Zamardi, that can turn their 9.850s into vital 9.900s. They need to do some anger bars.
The bars score is my primary hesitation in predicting LSU to win this championship. I'm worried the rotation will be a little flat. But if they do bring the sticks and shed those average scores, then I'm confident enough in the next three events to consider this meet completely even. At that point, it could just as easily go to LSU or Florida, and we'd be in for a real treat for three more rotations. Let's hope we get it. Question: if you're putting together that LSU bars lineup, do you go with Gnat or Hambrick?
Auburn is playing with the big girls now, so while Auburn has been amazing this season, we have to evaluate this team not just on the scale of their own improvement or capabilities but in comparison to the best teams in the conference. Auburn's floor is good. It can be a real asset, especially when Caitlin Atkinson is in the lineup and getting her 9.9s. I particularly appreciate the commitment to difficulty through most of the lineup coupled with the pragmatism to downgrade some of those piked full-ins to tucked in order to give away less in chest position and landing control. But at the same time, most of these floor routines are more 9.850 than 9.900, which becomes a consideration in a meet where 197.9 is the expectation and everyone will be shooting rainbows of 9.9s out of every orifice. It's a strange world where 9.850 is a score that can take you out of contention, but that's where we are. Floor 9.850s could keep them in the respectable low 197s instead of the rarefied high 197s. If Auburn is going to stay in the picture and not be the afterthought of the late session, that will require a couple 9.9s in the opening rotation.
March 29, 2014
University Park, PA Regional Preview
This marks our first weekend without gymnastics since December. What are we even supposed to do with ourselves? Socialize with people? About things? Address responsibilities? Guh. Incorrect. Instead, let's emotionally prepare ourselves for next Saturday, my favorite day of the gymnastics year, by breaking down each regional. Good idea? I think so. I'll begin with the #1 seed Florida Gators and the Penn State Regional beginning at 4ET/1PT.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Florida (bye before bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before floor)
[15] Penn State (vault)
[23] New Hampshire (floor)
[29] Kentucky (bars)
[35] Maryland (beam)
Competing individuals are from Brown (Diana Walters, Caroline Morant, Michelle Schnayder), Pittsburgh (Brittney Harris, Maebelle Pacheco - vault, Katie O'Rourke - beam and floor), Bridgeport (Lissette La Fex), and Cornell (Melanie Jorgensen - bars).
The Favorite
Another year, another #1 Florida team. The 2014 season marks the fourth consecutive time Florida has entered regionals as the #1 overall team in the country. Aside from the near-disaster beamtastrophe in 2011 after which the team just barely squeaked through by .025, Florida has worn the #1 crown comfortably at regionals, and this competition should be no exception. Sure, I could try to concoct possible scenarios where Florida counts 11 beam falls and gets into trouble, but that's a waste. The Gators should advance by a hefty margin and probably won't garner that much attention on the day. We'll all be too focused on the legitimate, clawing fights for nationals spots.
There will be plenty of time to talk about Florida in the weeks leading up to nationals, but I still have an area or two I want to keep an eye on as we gauge whether the Gators can repeat as champions, especially coming off the loss at SECs. Florida didn't have huge problems in that competition, but they showed some ragged qualities and uncharacteristic mistakes here and there that indicated a step down in quality from the stellar performances they had leading up to SECs. Claire Boyce falling on a rudi, Bridgey going OOB in the deciding routine, a couple lackluster landings on beam dismounts, these were unexpected errors, but not trends. It's not really a thing until it happens again. But, if there's one area I do want to watch for Florida at regionals, it's vault and the progression of those landings. They're still missing sticks and giving away tenths in most of those routines, and that's been happening fairly frequently.
Now, we saw the exact same thing last year, with Florida looking predominately blah in the vault landing department at SECs and then bringing themselves into line after that. By Super Six, Florida had far and away the best vault landings of any team. They should pull things together again this year, but this Florida vault team is not as strong as last year's group, so it will be interesting to see if they can progress in the same way. They can't be in a position of giving up multiple tenths to Alabama and LSU on vault like they did at SECs.
But really, let's get to the main story of this regional.
Competing teams (starting event)
[1] Florida (bye before bars)
[12] Oregon State (bye before floor)
[15] Penn State (vault)
[23] New Hampshire (floor)
[29] Kentucky (bars)
[35] Maryland (beam)
Competing individuals are from Brown (Diana Walters, Caroline Morant, Michelle Schnayder), Pittsburgh (Brittney Harris, Maebelle Pacheco - vault, Katie O'Rourke - beam and floor), Bridgeport (Lissette La Fex), and Cornell (Melanie Jorgensen - bars).
The Favorite
Another year, another #1 Florida team. The 2014 season marks the fourth consecutive time Florida has entered regionals as the #1 overall team in the country. Aside from the near-disaster beamtastrophe in 2011 after which the team just barely squeaked through by .025, Florida has worn the #1 crown comfortably at regionals, and this competition should be no exception. Sure, I could try to concoct possible scenarios where Florida counts 11 beam falls and gets into trouble, but that's a waste. The Gators should advance by a hefty margin and probably won't garner that much attention on the day. We'll all be too focused on the legitimate, clawing fights for nationals spots.
There will be plenty of time to talk about Florida in the weeks leading up to nationals, but I still have an area or two I want to keep an eye on as we gauge whether the Gators can repeat as champions, especially coming off the loss at SECs. Florida didn't have huge problems in that competition, but they showed some ragged qualities and uncharacteristic mistakes here and there that indicated a step down in quality from the stellar performances they had leading up to SECs. Claire Boyce falling on a rudi, Bridgey going OOB in the deciding routine, a couple lackluster landings on beam dismounts, these were unexpected errors, but not trends. It's not really a thing until it happens again. But, if there's one area I do want to watch for Florida at regionals, it's vault and the progression of those landings. They're still missing sticks and giving away tenths in most of those routines, and that's been happening fairly frequently.
Now, we saw the exact same thing last year, with Florida looking predominately blah in the vault landing department at SECs and then bringing themselves into line after that. By Super Six, Florida had far and away the best vault landings of any team. They should pull things together again this year, but this Florida vault team is not as strong as last year's group, so it will be interesting to see if they can progress in the same way. They can't be in a position of giving up multiple tenths to Alabama and LSU on vault like they did at SECs.
But really, let's get to the main story of this regional.
April 4, 2013
Morgantown Regional Preview
The final few regionals don't have clear favorites for the win, but because of the seeding system, they do have clear favorites for the nationals spots. There is not yet enough parity for teams outside the top 15 to expect to challenge for nationals without a gift from a higher-ranked team.
Competing teams (starting event):
[5] Michigan (vault)
[8] Nebraska (bye before bars)
[17] Illinois (bye before floor)
[19] Kentucky (floor)
[26] West Virginia (bars)
[33] North Carolina (beam)
The Favorites
Michigan had the landings together this year well before any of the other teams, which accounted for the very high ranking at the beginning of the season. As the other teams caught up in presenting finished routines, they also caught up in RQS. As a result of both that and two consecutive average performances, the Wolverines are perhaps slightly undervalued coming into regionals. This is still a high 197 team that would potentially project into the 198s were it not for beam.
Competing teams (starting event):
[5] Michigan (vault)
[8] Nebraska (bye before bars)
[17] Illinois (bye before floor)
[19] Kentucky (floor)
[26] West Virginia (bars)
[33] North Carolina (beam)
The Favorites
Michigan had the landings together this year well before any of the other teams, which accounted for the very high ranking at the beginning of the season. As the other teams caught up in presenting finished routines, they also caught up in RQS. As a result of both that and two consecutive average performances, the Wolverines are perhaps slightly undervalued coming into regionals. This is still a high 197 team that would potentially project into the 198s were it not for beam.
March 21, 2013
SEC Championship Preview
At the season's outset, the SEC looked to be a clear two-team race, so we have the improved refinement of Georgia and cleanliness of LSU to thank for this becoming a more competitive event than it appeared it would. While a Georgia or LSU victory would still be a surprise since each team has at least one weak event, their 197 potential will surely keep the action broadly focused on all four teams through the last rotation. That would be the case, at least, if anyone actually got to see the competition, but alas no. The SEC can't manage such a thing. Might we hope that the newly live Pac-12 Championship would put a little pressure on ESPN to do the same thing for the SEC, at least online? Yeah, I didn't think so.
Florida has been the favorite at this competition since the day that Bridget Sloan committed, and that remains the case. The Gators come in as the #1 team in the country, and the lack of clear weaknesses and the expectation (not just potential, but expectation) of double-digit 9.9s should put them ahead of Alabama. If the Tide is to win the title, landings will be to thank. Florida is too 198-capable when sticking, but if the Gators are stepping, Alabama can erode a lead .05 by .05 with sticks.
Even if Georgia and LSU hit perfectly, they're going to need some help to win. If not a counting fall, getting them in the title picture would have require at least a couple counting 9.7s. I don't see both Alabama and Florida succumbing to that, which is why the others remain on the outside. Georgia has a bit more potential to win because, on an ideal day when beam is in order and the floor landings look like they did last weekend, the mid-high 197s is a legitimate goal. LSU will be just a bit too glad to get through beam and will likely lose too much ground there to make it up on floor and vault against equally powerful teams. LSU will also be starting on vault and floor, so the team may be susceptible to stunted early scores in places where it needs huge ones.
The rotation order is as follows:
Session 1: Auburn - VT; Arkansas - UB; Kentucky - BB; Missouri - FX
Session 2: Florida - VT; Alabama - UB; Georgia - BB; LSU - FX
Florida has been the favorite at this competition since the day that Bridget Sloan committed, and that remains the case. The Gators come in as the #1 team in the country, and the lack of clear weaknesses and the expectation (not just potential, but expectation) of double-digit 9.9s should put them ahead of Alabama. If the Tide is to win the title, landings will be to thank. Florida is too 198-capable when sticking, but if the Gators are stepping, Alabama can erode a lead .05 by .05 with sticks.
Even if Georgia and LSU hit perfectly, they're going to need some help to win. If not a counting fall, getting them in the title picture would have require at least a couple counting 9.7s. I don't see both Alabama and Florida succumbing to that, which is why the others remain on the outside. Georgia has a bit more potential to win because, on an ideal day when beam is in order and the floor landings look like they did last weekend, the mid-high 197s is a legitimate goal. LSU will be just a bit too glad to get through beam and will likely lose too much ground there to make it up on floor and vault against equally powerful teams. LSU will also be starting on vault and floor, so the team may be susceptible to stunted early scores in places where it needs huge ones.
The rotation order is as follows:
Session 1: Auburn - VT; Arkansas - UB; Kentucky - BB; Missouri - FX
Session 2: Florida - VT; Alabama - UB; Georgia - BB; LSU - FX
Vault:
Each of the four teams in the final session is capable of
scoring a 49.500 on vault, so if any team gains an advantage here, it will be
because of sticks. For most of the season, Alabama has lagged behind in the
landing department, but last week the Tide got several crucial sticks while
Florida, LSU, and to a lesser extent Georgia all gave away tenths. If that can be used as evidence, Alabama should be starting to find the 49.600 form that we always knew existed.
However, if the Gators are not as bouncy as they have been too
many times on the road this season, they can certainly snatch this event.
Hunter is the strongest vaulter in the conference, King is obviously stellar,
and Sloan and Dickerson can go well above 9.900 for sticks. They will record a
big score regardless, but they must control the landings to outpace Alabama. If Alabama is still forced to use Jacob or Sims, that could also tip things toward the Gators.
Georgia’s freshman Yurchenko 1.5s have saved this team on an
event where it looked like they would give up some ground after last year, but the landings
for both Jay and Rogers have been rather hit and miss these last few weeks. When they stick, they go
9.950, but when they hop forward, they go 9.850. The Gymdogs don’t
have to win vault (and probably won’t), but they certainly can't be fighting against 9.850s from top performers. A stick from Davis for 9.900 in the leadoff position usually does wonders for the rest of the scores, so watch for that.
Of these four teams, LSU is the most reliant on a successful
vault rotation. While the others can make up for OK vaults on other
events, the Tigers know they will be losing tenths on bars and beam no matter
what, so an average rotation, even to the tune of 49.300, could take them out
of the running. Therefore, LSU sticks will be the most important sticks. If
they don’t get them, they at least better hope for that same vault judge as last year.
In the first session, Auburn should pick up some ground here
with Guy’s power and Atkinson’s clean 1.5. Arkansas will be looking to get
through a depleted event with something over 49, and Kentucky will be looking
to the back four for solid 9.850s to try to keep pace.
January 18, 2013
All Friday's Disasters (and Successes or Whatever)
Friday's live feeds:
7E/4P Missouri @ Florida (free)
7E/4P Arkansas @ Kentucky (paid)
7:30E/4:30P Auburn @ Georgia (paid)
8:30E/5:30P LSU @ Alabama (free)
10E/7P Cal, UIC, UCD @ Washington (free)
It's a busy Friday of SEC action with lots of opportunities for movement at the top of the rankings. I will be interested to see if Rhonda has changed Florida's beam lineup after counting a fall at LSU (putting in Ashanee?) or if it remains the same. Georgia's first two meets have been marked by too many 9.6s (meaning that they've been getting 9.6s), and those will need to disappear, especially at home. I expect a big-scoring meet between LSU and Alabama, and it will be vital to watch how LSU's home scores compare to road scores.
7E/4P Missouri @ Florida (free)
7E/4P Arkansas @ Kentucky (paid)
7:30E/4:30P Auburn @ Georgia (paid)
8:30E/5:30P LSU @ Alabama (free)
10E/7P Cal, UIC, UCD @ Washington (free)
It's a busy Friday of SEC action with lots of opportunities for movement at the top of the rankings. I will be interested to see if Rhonda has changed Florida's beam lineup after counting a fall at LSU (putting in Ashanee?) or if it remains the same. Georgia's first two meets have been marked by too many 9.6s (meaning that they've been getting 9.6s), and those will need to disappear, especially at home. I expect a big-scoring meet between LSU and Alabama, and it will be vital to watch how LSU's home scores compare to road scores.
April 3, 2012
Champaign Regional Preview
The second preview on the docket features our #2 national seed, the Oklahoma Sooners, traveling to Illinois in an effort to earn their place in yet another National Championship. Along with [2] Oklahoma, the teams competing in this Regional are [11] Stanford, [14] Denver, [22] Illinois, [24] Kentucky, and [32] Illinois-Chicago.
The Favorite:
For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.
However, like Florida, I don't see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they're still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.
When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.
But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma's lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.
The Favorite:
For being the #2 team in the country, Oklahoma certainly has been flying under the radar lately. The Sooners put up a significant score at the Big 12 Championships at home (the highest in the country that weekend, in fact), so they should be in the forefront of the conversation. And yet, they preceded that result with two lackluster road performances and have to deal with the injury to Kayla Nowak, so there are definite questions as to how this team is oriented heading into the championship season and whether their best gymnastics is still ahead of them.
However, like Florida, I don't see much of a chance that Oklahoma will fail to advance. This team is consistent enough that, even whey they perform poorly, they're still able to avoid counting falls and manage an adequate score. Though the Sooners were all kinds of off when they visited UCLA, they still posted a mid-196, and even that score would be enough to advance out of this group.
When watching Oklahoma at this Regional, keep an eye on amplitude of elements across all the events. This area is always evaluated inconsistently during the regular season, but when trying to separate routines during the postseason, it can become a much greater issue. The Sooners have enough difficulty and excel at putting up consistent routines, but in vaulting, tumbling, and some of the beam elements, Oklahoma needs to show competitive amplitude, speed, lightness, and extension, the kinds of qualities that gymnastics people mean when they talk about showing sufficient dynamics.
But for now, I expect to see Oklahoma's lineup hit a lot of 9.875 routines this weekend and score around 197, which would be enough to qualify easily.
March 23, 2012
SEC Championships Preview
While the Pac-12 Championships will be exciting for the battle between UCLA and Utah, tomorrow's main event is really the SEC Championships. We have a great contest shaping up between Florida and Alabama, which I expect to be very close and will probably come down to a few tenths either way. Unfortunately, the draw has been revealed and Alabama ends on a bye, which takes some of the drama out of it, but try not to let that spoil things. Let's just hope neither team has to count a fall.
Not to be totally overlooked, Georgia is also the "host" team, and it wouldn't be inconceivable for them to challenge. However, in a realistic scenario, I don't see them scoring higher than Florida or Alabama unless we do start counting falls. We could see both Alabama and Florida pushing the 49.500 territory on a few events, and Georgia just doesn't have the scores throughout the lineup to be able to do that. They can very well go 197.300 this weekend, but I expect the winning total to be higher than that.
Another compelling story at the SEC Championships will be the likely fourth place battle between Arkansas and LSU. Arkansas's performance will largely depend on whether Grable is available (and on how many events). Unlike some of the deeper teams, the Razorbacks don't have 9.8s sitting in the wings to come in and replace Grable and Salsberg, so they have been counting a lot of falls and 9.7s the last few weeks. LSU won't have to do that and will easily outscore a less than ideal Arkansas. In fact, if Georgia doesn't hit exceptionally, they should watch their backs for LSU. The Tigers are peaking right on time.
In the Pac-12, even though Utah has an excellent chance of winning (and is probably the logical choice), UCLA is the better team if everyone hits to potential, but we don't have that kind of clear difference between Alabama and Florida. If both teams hit to potential, it could still come down to a tenth, which is, of course, what will make tomorrow so much fun. I think I know which way I'm leaning, but let's take a look at each event to help confirm the decision. (As with before, these are not official rankings and are instead based on my own opinions and perceptions.)
Vault:
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. LSU
4. Georgia
5. Arkansas
6. Auburn
7. Kentucky
This is the event with the clearest difference between the top few teams. While Alabama usually gets a .050 boost per vault at home (See: Diandra Milliner's 10), they're still capable of at least four solid 9.900s, and I would consider anything less than a 49.500 tomorrow to be an underperformance based on the way the scoring has gone this season.
Florida is also obviously extremely adept on vault, and on paper they would appear to be able to hit right with Alabama (the lineup of Johnson, King, Dickerson, and Hunter is comparable to Sledge, Gutierrez, Stack-Eaton, and Milliner). However, Florida's group hasn't hit those 9.900s nearly as consistently, with far too many scores in the 9.8s coming from those late positions. Also, the leadoffs Spicer and Ellis are not as capable of sticking for an early big score as Clark/Williams/Priess are.
Vault is LSU's best event, and they have a few 9.900 possibilities in that lineup, with Courville capable of 9.950. The consistency of 9.875 scores puts them just above Georgia in my opinion, since the Gym Dogs are too reliant on Hires and Ding, with everyone else likely to go around 9.825. Georgia has to get at least 9.850s from Couch and Earls if they are going to keep within a reasonable distance of the top two.
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