Gainesville Regional Preview

Throughout the week, I will be breaking down each of the regional championships, giving a good hard stare to the teams expected to advance as well as the teams that could conceivably make things a little more interesting than they were last year. Let's begin with our #1 seed, the Florida Gators, and their home regional in Gainesville, Florida.

Competing teams (starting event):
[1] Florida (vault)
[12] Minnesota (bye before bars)
[13] Auburn (bye before floor)
[24] Maryland (floor)
[29] Bridgeport (bars)
[36] Pittsburgh (beam)

The Favorite:


Once again, the Florida Gators enter the regional championships as the #1 team, and while any person with eyes and a basic understanding of the concept of gymnastics would consider them a lock to advance from any of the regional locations, it would take an upset of downright comical proportions to knock them out their home regional. We're just two years removed from Florida's near disaster of a 2011 regional, but this team is notably more secure than that one and also scores at such stratospheric levels that it could withstand even that kind of catastrophe and still advance. 

SEC Championship Broadcast

Here we stand, the SEC Championship broadcast five days after the competition ended. ESPNU has finally gotten around to showing the event after completing a four-day marathon of Division III hopscotch, or whatever this network usually shows. 

It's never as interesting to watch a competition like this after the fact, but it will still be a valuable experience for evaluating levels of postseason readiness as well as scoring accuracy.

We begin with a brief recap of the JV session and Auburn on the vault. Nice power as always from Guy and Atkinson, but those landings need much more control. They cannot give away those .100s if they want to keep pace with Minnesota's vaulting at regionals.

Otherwise, it's just bits and pieces of routines to make sure everyone feels included. Grable's excellent back 1.5, front 1/1, front half stepout got its moment, as did some uncontrolled vault and floor landings from both teams in the final rotation until Guy's hit anchor routine for 9.900. Suzanne interviews Jeff Graba. He seems charming and slightly nervous.

I'm sure these coaches will all be really pleased by these unflattering shots of them laughing. Bridget Sloan is never not dancing.

Rotation 1:
We start with Clark on bars instead of the usual leadoff Sledge, who had a strained back. Alabama ended up going out of order on this event and brought it to the attention of the judges for a one-tenth deduction. Clark had a couple leg separations on her shaposh and bail handstand, cut off her handstands to a degree, and stepped back on the dismount. Demeo can be very hit and miss on bars, but this time her handstands looked mostly fine (I still hate that composition choice of the half turn, which is just asking to be deducted). She sticks the DLO. Priess finishes with a very aggressive routine, she's rounding into form, with a hop on the DLO that is still piked a little but much stronger than it was a month ago.

Regional Scoring Comparison

I will have full analysis of each regional coming next week, but for now this is a comparison of some relevant scores and averages (home averages for host teams, road averages for everyone else) for each regional championship. Each score is followed by the team's ranking within the regional in that category.

Gainesville, Florida Regional

[1] Florida
RQS: 197.840 [1]
Season high: 198.425 [1]
Season average: 197.486 [1]
Home average: 197.504 [1]
Home VT average: 49.458 [1]
Home UB average: 49.504 [1]
Home BB average: 49.163 [1]
Home FX average: 49.379 [1]

[2] Minnesota
RQS: 196.615 [T2]
Season high: 197.225 [2]
Season average: 196.110 [2]
Road average: 195.729 [3]
Road VT average: 49.175 [2]
Road UB average: 48.471 [5]
Road BB average: 49.013 [3]
Road FX average: 49.071 [2]

[3] Auburn
RQS: 196.615 [T2]
Season high: 197.175 [3]
Season average: 196.085 [3]
Road average: 196.007 [2]
Road VT average: 49.054 [5]
Road UB average: 48.968 [2]
Road BB average: 49.039 [2]
Road FX average: 48.946 [4]

[4] Maryland
RQS: 195.810 [4]
Season high: 196.175 [T5]
Season average: 195.446 [4]
Road average: 195.307 [4]
Road VT average: 49.121 [3]
Road UB average: 48.546 [4]
Road BB average: 48.779 [4]
Road FX average: 48.861 [5]

[5] Bridgeport
RQS: 195.485 [5]
Season high: 196.200 [4]
Season average: 194.725 [6]
Road average: 194.880 [5]
Road VT average: 49.095 [4]
Road UB average: 48.418 [6]
Road BB average: 48.418 [5]
Road FX average: 48.950 [3]

[6] Pittsburgh
RQS: 195.065 [6]
Season high: 196.175 [T5]
Season average: 194.750 [5]
Road average: 194.575 [6]
Road VT average: 48.671 [6]
Road UB average: 48.654 [3]
Road BB average: 48.413 [6]
Road FX average: 48.838 [6]

Regional Selection

The Regional Selection Show gets underway here at 3:00 ET/12:00 PT.

Why we need a selection show to tell us what we essentially already know (except for the assignments to the Ohio State and West Virginia Regionals) is beyond me, but it gives everyone something to tweet about, I suppose. I contend they should spent less time organizing selection shows and more time thinking about the postseason format and how it's awful, but maybe that's just me.

We have six regional championships:
Florida (6:00 ET/3:00 PT)
Oklahoma (5:00 ET/2:00 PT)
Alabama (7:00 ET/4:00 PT)
Oregon State (7:00 ET/4:00 PT)
Ohio State (6:00 ET/3:00 PT)
West Virginia (6:00 ET/3:00 PT)

(Please note the absolutely terrible timing of these regionals. They're all at the same time, which is extremely fan unfriendly.)

And 36 teams to be placed:
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Michigan
6. UCLA
7. LSU
8. Nebraska
9. Utah
10. Oregon State
11. Stanford
12. Minnesota
12 Part 2: Auburn
14. Penn State
15. Denver
16. Arkansas
17. Illinois
18. Arizona
19. Kentucky
20. Ohio State
21. Boise State
22. Washington
23. Kent State
24. Maryland
24 Part 2: Central Michigan
26. West Virginia
27. Iowa
28. Arizona State
29. Bridgeport
30. BYU
31. NC State
32. Cal
33. North Carolina
34. Southern Utah
35. Iowa State
36. Pittsburgh

Here's how it will play out in twelve days:
Florida Regional: [1] Florida, [12] Minnesota, [12] Auburn, Maryland, Bridgeport, Pittsburgh
Oklahoma Regional: [2] Oklahoma, [11] Stanford, [14] Penn State, Washington, Iowa, Southern Utah
Alabama Regional: [3] Alabama, [9] Utah, [15] Denver, Kent State, BYU, Iowa State
Oregon State Regional: [4] Georgia, [10] Oregon State, [16] Arkansas, Boise State, Arizona State, Cal
West Virginia Regional: [5] Michigan, [8] Nebraska, [17] Illinois, Kentucky, West Virginia, North Carolina   
Ohio State Regional: [6] UCLA, [7] LSU, [18] Arizona, Ohio State, Central Michigan, NC State

It's not surprising that UCLA and LSU go to Ohio State since LSU and Ohio State are both technically in the Central region. Plus, otherwise the Ohio State Regional would have been too Big Ten heavy.

So there's that. We have a few third seeds that could cause some damage, but no teams should be that disappointed. The Ohio State Regional is probably the deepest.

(It turns out that the breaker in the event of a tie is the best seventh score, not the season average.)

Conference Championships Live Blog - The Storm before the Better Storm

As championship season begins, the title picture remains relatively unchanged from its position at the beginning of year. Oklahoma has proven itself a serious contender instead of a peripheral one, and UCLA has dropped down because of injuries, but by and large this is where we expected to be.

We might have hoped that the Super Six outlook, which seemed rather fuzzy in December and January, would work itself out during the season, but it remains as uncertain as ever. The top eleven teams in the country can all claim a Super Six status of at least possible. For the teams currently at the back of that group (Nebraska, Oregon State, and Stanford), today will be crucial in determining their postseason fates. There will be no more playing around with lineups or strategies about peaking at the right time. This begins the peaking time, and those teams will decide whether we whittle down that group of eleven today.

Since 1989, no team has won the National Championship without placing in the top two at a conference championship. Also remember that we will have four judges beginning today instead of two. Throwing out scores tends to even out the scoring a little bit and mitigate the influence of slaphappy judges. Gymnasts who have been getting a bunch of forgiving 9.875s and 9.925s will see those go down to 9.850s and 9.900s today.

The Conference Championships Ahead

Come one, come all. We have more championships going on tomorrow than you could possibly know what to do with. This day is becoming increasingly less frustrating in terms of updates every year, and the addition of a live TV broadcast of Pac-12s helps significantly, as does the fact that the SEC now understands that the internet is a place where information can be communicated to others. They already have the scoring link up this year! I'm so proud.

It's going to be a lo-ong day, but I wouldn't have it any other way. I'll be popping in with updates throughout the day, giving special focus to the second sessions of Big Tens, SECs, and Pac-12s. Updates from the Big Ten Championship from those who can watch it on the Big Ten Network would be much appreciated. 

A few of the lesser championships will be providing live streams for those interested, so really the only lagging conference is the SEC. We'll all have to follow the scores together and make really self-righteous, really unsubstantiated comments about them. Yay!

I've already picked UCLA for Pac-12s and Florida for SECs, so here it goes for the rest. I say Michigan takes Big Tens with something in the mid 197s. Nebraska will contend but can't match Michigan's scoring potential. If Oklahoma wins Big 12s by anything less than 1.500, it counts as an upset. I like NC State to upset Maryland at EAGLs, but I'll take the top seeds, Denver and Kent State, in their respective conferences.

Championships Schedule
Saturday – 3/23/13

SEC Championship Preview

At the season's outset, the SEC looked to be a clear two-team race, so we have the improved refinement of Georgia and cleanliness of LSU to thank for this becoming a more competitive event than it appeared it would. While a Georgia or LSU victory would still be a surprise since each team has at least one weak event, their 197 potential will surely keep the action broadly focused on all four teams through the last rotation. That would be the case, at least, if anyone actually got to see the competition, but alas no. The SEC can't manage such a thing. Might we hope that the newly live Pac-12 Championship would put a little pressure on ESPN to do the same thing for the SEC, at least online? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Florida has been the favorite at this competition since the day that Bridget Sloan committed, and that remains the case. The Gators come in as the #1 team in the country, and the lack of clear weaknesses and the expectation (not just potential, but expectation) of double-digit 9.9s should put them ahead of Alabama. If the Tide is to win the title, landings will be to thank. Florida is too 198-capable when sticking, but if the Gators are stepping, Alabama can erode a lead .05 by .05 with sticks.

Even if Georgia and LSU hit perfectly, they're going to need some help to win. If not a counting fall, getting them in the title picture would have require at least a couple counting 9.7s. I don't see both Alabama and Florida succumbing to that, which is why the others remain on the outside. Georgia has a bit more potential to win because, on an ideal day when beam is in order and the floor landings look like they did last weekend, the mid-high 197s is a legitimate goal. LSU will be just a bit too glad to get through beam and will likely lose too much ground there to make it up on floor and vault against equally powerful teams. LSU will also be starting on vault and floor, so the team may be susceptible to stunted early scores in places where it needs huge ones.

The rotation order is as follows:
Session 1: Auburn - VT; Arkansas - UB; Kentucky - BB; Missouri - FX
Session 2: Florida - VT; Alabama - UB; Georgia - BB; LSU - FX

Vault:

Each of the four teams in the final session is capable of scoring a 49.500 on vault, so if any team gains an advantage here, it will be because of sticks. For most of the season, Alabama has lagged behind in the landing department, but last week the Tide got several crucial sticks while Florida, LSU, and to a lesser extent Georgia all gave away tenths. If that can be used as evidence, Alabama should be starting to find the 49.600 form that we always knew existed. 

However, if the Gators are not as bouncy as they have been too many times on the road this season, they can certainly snatch this event. Hunter is the strongest vaulter in the conference, King is obviously stellar, and Sloan and Dickerson can go well above 9.900 for sticks. They will record a big score regardless, but they must control the landings to outpace Alabama. If Alabama is still forced to use Jacob or Sims, that could also tip things toward the Gators.

Georgia’s freshman Yurchenko 1.5s have saved this team on an event where it looked like they would give up some ground after last year, but the landings for both Jay and Rogers have been rather hit and miss these last few weeks. When they stick, they go 9.950, but when they hop forward, they go 9.850. The Gymdogs don’t have to win vault (and probably won’t), but they certainly can't be fighting against 9.850s from top performers. A stick from Davis for 9.900 in the leadoff position usually does wonders for the rest of the scores, so watch for that.

Of these four teams, LSU is the most reliant on a successful vault rotation. While the others can make up for OK vaults on other events, the Tigers know they will be losing tenths on bars and beam no matter what, so an average rotation, even to the tune of 49.300, could take them out of the running. Therefore, LSU sticks will be the most important sticks. If they don’t get them, they at least better hope for that same vault judge as last year. 

In the first session, Auburn should pick up some ground here with Guy’s power and Atkinson’s clean 1.5. Arkansas will be looking to get through a depleted event with something over 49, and Kentucky will be looking to the back four for solid 9.850s to try to keep pace.